Friends Again ?

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Friends Again ? Friends again ? EU-US relations after the crisis Nicole Gnesotto, James Dobbins, Federico Romero, David Frum, William Wallace, Ronald D. Asmus, István Gyarmati, Walter B. Slocombe, Gilles Andréani, Philip H. Gordon, Werner Weidenfeld, Felix Neugart, Geoffrey Kemp, Dov Lynch, Fiona Hill, Baudoin Bollaert, Joseph Quinlan, Marcin Zaborowski Edited by Marcin Zaborowski Transatlantic Book 2006 Transatlantic Union European Institute for Security Studies In January 2002 the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) became an autonomous Paris-based agency of the European Union. Following an EU Council Joint Action of 20 July 2001, it is now an integral part of the new structures that will support the further deve- lopment of the CFSP/ESDP. The Institute’s core mission is to provide analyses and recommendations that can be of use and relevance to the formulation of the European security and defence policy. In carrying out that mission, it also acts as an interface between European experts and decision-makers at all levels. friends-text.qxp 14/02/2006 10:08 Page 1 Friends again? EU-US relations after the crisis Nicole Gnesotto, James Dobbins, Federico Romero, David Frum, William Wallace, Ronald D. Asmus, István Gyarmati, Walter B. Slocombe, Gilles Andréani, Philip H. Gordon, Werner Weidenfeld, Felix Neugart, Geoffrey Kemp, Dov Lynch, Fiona Hill, Baudoin Bollaert, Joseph Quinlan, Marcin Zaborowski Edited by Marcin Zaborowski Institute for Security Studies European Union Paris friends-text.qxp 14/02/2006 10:08 Page 2 Institute for Security Studies European Union 43 avenue du Président Wilson 75775 Paris cedex 16 tel.: +33 (0)1 56 89 19 30 fax: +33 (0)1 56 89 19 31 e-mail: [email protected] www.iss-eu.org Director: Nicole Gnesotto © EU Institute for Security Studies 2006. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior permission of the EU Institute for Security Studies. ISSN 1633-7352 ISBN 92-9198-084-6 Published by the EU Institute for Security Studies and printed in Condé-sur-Noireau (France) by Corlet Imprimeur. Graphic design by Claire Mabille (Paris). Cover design by Corlet Imprimeur. friends-text.qxp 14/02/2006 10:08 Page 3 Contents Introduction: the challenges ahead Le challenge, c’est le réel 11 Nicole Gnesotto • Trois contraintes lourdes 11 • Le renouveau et ses limites 14 • L’avenir, sous bénéfice d’inventaire 17 Friends again? 21 James Dobbins • Potential theatres of conflict 22 • The limits of unilateralism 24 • NATO and the EU 26 • Conclusion 27 What do we share? 1 What do we share? 31 Federico Romero • Growing divergence 33 • The end of the transatlantic community? 36 2 A new Europe, a new anti-Americanism 39 David Frum • How anti-Americanism became respectable 40 • A symptom of European angst 42 • Finding a way forward 44 3 A rational partnership in a post-Atlantic world 47 William Wallace • Shared values, but also distinctive values 49 • Shared interests, but also divergent interests 50 • Setting our expectations lower 53 friends-text.qxp 14/02/2006 10:08 Page 4 Contents... 4 A dissenting voice on the values and interests gap 55 Ronald D. Asmus • The values gap – fact or fiction? 56 • Do we have common interests? 58 • Conclusion 60 5 Crisis or convergence – whither the transatlantic relationship? 63 István Gyarmati • Salient discrepancies 64 • Working towards an effective partnership 65 6 The context for the transatlantic relationship in the new century 71 Walter B. Slocombe What do we do? 7 L’Europe et le problème de la puissance américaine 83 Gilles Andréani • Grand basculement et infortunes de la puissance 83 • Les transformations de la puissance 87 • La multipolarité, réponse au problème de la puissance américaine ? 91 • Un « multilatéralisme efficace » vis-à-vis des Etats-Unis 93 8 America’s role in the world: searching for balance 99 Philip H. Gordon • Bush’s foreign policy of idealism 101 • The aftermath of Iraq 104 • Soft landing or overcompensation? 108 friends-text.qxp 14/02/2006 10:08 Page 5 Contents... 9 The EU’s role in the world: efficiency and relevance in times of crisis 111 Werner Weidenfeld • The EU as an international actor 112 • Major characteristics and challenges of today’s world 113 • Challenges from within the Union 116 • Conclusion 120 Iraq and the Middle East 10 The EU, the Middle East and Iraq 125 Felix Neugart • The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership: promoting stability and reform 125 • The Israeli-Palestinian conflict: reviving the road map 128 • Iran: engaging an uneasy partner 131 • Iraq: stabilising a weak polity 134 • Conclusion: towards a European role in the Gulf? 137 11 High Noon: America’s moment in the Middle East 141 Geoffrey Kemp • Introduction 141 • The current challenges for the United States 144 • Conclusion 152 Russia 12 Same view, different realities: EU and US policy towards Russia 157 Dov Lynch • EU policy since 1999 159 • EU interaction with Russia 163 • Similarities and differences across the Atlantic 165 • Conclusion 170 friends-text.qxp 14/02/2006 10:08 Page 6 Contents... 13 Managing the Russian dilemma 171 Fiona Hill • A strong and a weak power 173 • Russian foreign policy preoccupations 175 • Drivers of United States policy towards Russia 176 • The United States, Europe and Russia 183 • Conclusion: towards a common response 184 Economics: still a glue? Lien transatlantique et solidarité économique : 14 le test de la mondialisaton 187 Baudoin Bollaert • L’effondrement du « Mur » 189 • Une nouvelle histoire 191 • Dollar et euro 194 • La première mondialisation 195 • Grand écart 197 15 The primacy of the transatlantic economy 199 Joseph Quinlan • Drifting together, not apart 200 • Commerce trumps diplomacy 203 • The transatlantic partnership – too important to fail 206 Friends reunited? Friends reunited? Recalibrating transatlantic relations in the 21st century 213 Marcin Zaborowski • Rapprochement or détente? 214 • Rapprochement and domestic malaise 222 • Friends reunited? 226 friends-text.qxp 14/02/2006 10:08 Page 7 Contents... Annexes • About the authors 233 • Abbreviations 238 friends-text.qxp 14/02/2006 10:08 Page 8 The editor would like to acknowledge the contribution of Antonio Missiroli, who provided valuable input in the early stages regarding the content and structure of this book. friends-text.qxp 14/02/2006 10:08 Page 9 Friends again? EU-US relations after the crisis ntroduction: IIthe challenges ahead 9 friends-text.qxp 14/02/2006 10:08 Page 10 friends-text.qxp 14/02/2006 10:08 Page 11 Friends again? Le challenge, c’est le réel EU-US relations after the crisis Nicole Gnesotto Apparemment, tout va bien. Depuis la visite historique du prési- dent George Bush au Conseil européen à Bruxelles, en février 2005, les dirigeants américains et européens répètent à l’envi que la page de la discorde irakienne a été tournée et qu’un partenariat euro- américain, efficace et pragmatique, est leur objectif commun. Et certes, la coopération a repris en bonne intelligence sur un certain nombre de dossiers difficiles : la préparation des négocia- tions sur le statut final du Kosovo, les pressions communes sur le gouvernement syrien, le soutien américain aux efforts et à la démarche de l’Union européenne à l’égard du problème nucléaire iranien, la collaboration euro-américaine au sein du quartet pour la stabilisation de Gaza, le travail quotidien des deux parties en matière de lutte contre les réseaux terroristes sont autant de preuves d’une dynamique positive désormais retrouvée dans les relations euro-américaines. La nouvelle administration Bush, sous l’égide de Condoleezza Rice, a même repris à son compte nombre des principes de la stratégie de sécurité élaborée par Javier Solana et solennellement adoptée par le Conseil européen de décembre 2003 : sur les vertus de la diplomatie, la nécessité de cadres de coopération multilatérale, l’importance de l’Union comme acteur global et partenaire de sécurité des Etats-Unis, la nécessité de s’attaquer aux causes profondes qui peuvent nourrir le terrorisme international. Inversement, l’Union européenne a pris acte des préoccupations américaines sur la Chine et gelé à ce stade le projet de levée de l’embargo sur les ventes d’armes à ce pays, de même qu’elle a intensifié ses contributions financières et son soutien au processus politique irakien depuis les élections de janvier 2005. Trois contraintes lourdes Il n’en demeure pas moins que cette embellie se développe sur fond de trois contraintes lourdes : 11 friends-text.qxp 14/02/2006 10:08 Page 12 Le challenge, c’est le réel Le premier paradoxe vient de ce que cette relance de la coopéra- tion euro-américaine se déroule sur fond de crise chez chacun des deux partenaires. Du côté américain, la crise est globale dans la mesure où elle affecte tant l’image et la crédibilité du leader- ship américain dans le monde que la justesse et l’efficacité des choix stratégiques américains, après trois années d’enlisement ou d’échec en Irak. Du côté européen, ce n’est pas l’action extérieure de l’Union qui est remise en cause mais sa dynamique politique intérieure, après le rejet du projet de Constitution par deux pays et la panne de confiance qui s’épanouit depuis entre les 25. Autrement dit, Européens et Américains célèbrent les ver- tus du partenariat alors que leur puissance respective est à la baisse, leur introversion croissante, et leur capacité d’influence commune forcément amoindrie. Il y a quatre ans, l’administra- tion américaine fustigeait le multilatéralisme comme le refuge des faibles et célébrait dans l’hubris la solitude d’une Amérique présumée omnipotente ; elle a redécouvert depuis les limites de sa puissance et donc les vertus d’une association plus structurée avec les Européens, alors que ceux-ci – faibles ou forts, divisés ou unis – n’ont jamais cessé de revendiquer, comme un principe de base de leur vision du monde, un partenariat fructueux avec l’Amérique.
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