Nuclear Deal: The Role of Iranian Media and Public Opinion

R. Dicky Johar Pribadi and Annisa Pratamasari Department of International Relations, Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Universitas Airlangga

Keywords: Level of Analysis, Foreign Policy, Iran, Nuclear Deal, Hassan Rouhani, Media, Public Opinion.

Abstract: Level of analysis is one of the strategies that offered in the research methodologies to analyze the phenomenons in International Relations, including the study of foreign policy analysis. Then, one of some level of analysis is the role of media and public opinion. In this article, the author tries to apply the level of analysis with the role of media and public opinion to analyze Iran’s foreign policy under Hassan Rouhani’s regime regarding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or Nuclear Deal. Nuclear installation in Iran itself has been accused by international, espescially Western countries, as unsafe and non-transparent development. Iran then disclaimed and revealed that the development of nuclear in Iran is for peaceful purpose or not for nuclear weapons. As the result, there is so many international economic which then causing the domestic economic to be weak. Public opinion is then shaped by the mass media to encourage Rouhani’s regime to struggle for nuclear agreement internationally. Thus, the sanctions would be lifted soon. Rouhani itself succeed to take a decision on Nuclear Iran Deal in order to keep the constituents and his team supporters.

1 INTRODUCTION Iran's Nuclear Deal policy under the Hassan Rouhani regime using the level of analysis of the role of In essence, foreign policy analysis is one of the media and public opinion. major studies in International Relations. To understand foreign policy , the author borrowed Deborah Gerner's understanding in his article 2 THE DYNAMICS OF IRANIAN entitled The Evolution of Foreign Policy Analysis. NUCLEAR DEAL According to Gerner (1995: 18), foreign policy is "the intentions, statements, and actions of actor- The draft of nuclear development in Iran was often, but not always, a state-directed toward the originally formed in the 1950s. Precisely in external world and the response of these actors to November 1967, Iran built its first nuclear reactor these intentions, statements, and actions ". Thus, it under the US Atoms for Peace program (Arms can be seen that the intentions, statements, and Control, 2016). United States support is also actions that policymakers have made in response to increasingly visible when the superpower also the external world are the characteristics of foreign supplies a reactor with a power of five megawatts policy. In the study of foreign policy analysis itself, and uranium supply is high enough to 93 percent for the process of foreign policy making and the factors its operation. Iran's nuclear installation is then that influence it become a central focus of considered for the development of energy-based discussion. So that the coverage of foreign policy advanced technological advances. Iran's own discussion is easy to be analysed and not president, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlevi, said that overlapping, one of the methodology strategy is the target of nuclear capacity reaching up to 23,000 through Level of Analysis or level of analysis MWe is aimed at liberating oil and natural gas in the (Sulistyo, 2016). In this article, the author describes framework of export demand (World Nuclear, about the level of mass media analysis and public 2016). The nuclear installation in Iran then attracts opinion to clarify its use in foreign policy analysis. attention from multinational companies, such as In addition, the authors will also analyse a case Siemens KWU and Framatome, to support the study of Iran's foreign policy related to Iran's construction of nuclear power plants in the Persian Nuclear Framework Agreement or better known as Gulf region. Next, the Iranian parliament ratified the

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Pribadi, R. and Pratamasari, A. Iran Nuclear Deal: The Role of Iranian Media and Public Opinion. DOI: 10.5220/0010280205550561 In Proceedings of Airlangga Conference on International Relations (ACIR 2018) - Politics, Economy, and Security in Changing Indo-Pacific Region, pages 555-561 ISBN: 978-989-758-493-0 Copyright c 2021 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda. All rights reserved

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Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) in February to stop the enrichment program for a given period of 1970 (Arms Control, 2016). Through this nuclear time. non-proliferation treaty itself, Iran is committed to The agreement between the five major countries using nuclear technology for peaceful purposes or with Germany and the European Union (P5 + 1) and not to use it to develop nuclear weapons possession. Iran was reached in the Iran Nuclear Framework But in early 1978, nuclear development in Iran had Agreement under the era of the Hassan Rouhani slowed down as the Shah Pahlavi regime began to regime which is considered a bit more cooperative lose its power in the Iranian government. In 1979, with the West, precisely in July 2015. The there was an which caused Iran agreement framework, also known as the Joint and US relations to stretch. Even during the Iranian Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is Revolution, there were 52 US diplomats held expected to ensure Iran's nuclear program hostage and only released after 444 days (Kerr, fundamental shift toward the development of 2016: 152). As a result, the United States sanctioned peaceful nuclear technology (Medium, 2015). The and severed its diplomatic ties with Iran. This countries involved in JCPOA are also optimistic that ultimately led to the development of nuclear in Iran the implementation of this agreement can positively had slowed down. contribute to regional and international peace and Furthermore, Iran's nuclear development security. In the JCPOA itself, it is mentioned that continued in the 1990s precisely in the era of the Iran's uranium reserves will be trimmed 98 percent Rafsanjani regime that had worked with China and in the next 15 years and will not produce plutonium Russia (World Nuclear, 2016). However, the (Antara news, 2015). Thus, it should hinder Iran cooperation did not last long. In fact, China's nuclear pursue for the latest technology for nuclear weapons. development cooperation was canceled before The sanctions given by the United Nations, the construction began. Some sentiments from the West United States and the European Union will then emerged when Iran was considered to be eventually lifted. The BBC (2016) itself reported developing its nuclear technology in secret and that some of the sanctions imposed on Iran have unsafe environment. Moreover, United States also paralyze Iran's economy of more than 160 million added Iran to the list of state sponsors of terrorism poundsterling only in oil revenues since 2012. (Arms Control, 2016). In later years, some Western Through this Iranian Nuclear Treaty Framework, countries were reluctant to work with Iran on unsafe Iran also able to re-sell its oil into the international nuclear development charges and the United States' market. assumption that the country is one of the axes of the world's crime (White House, 2016). The United States alone had issued the Iran Sanctions Act to cut 3 MEDIA AND PUBLIC OPINION US investment exceeding 20 million dollars in the Iranian energy sector. Ultimately, the International LEVEL OF ANALYSIS Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is encouraged to step in for inspection and further research on how Level of analysis often cited in a social scientific Iran's nuclear technology is developed. The IAEA research as a multilayered structure in a system. One forced Iran to stop any enrichment and nuclear of the academics of International Relations, Barry development process as long as Iran has not Buzan, defines the level of analysis as a set of provided any transparency regarding the material it interacting units within a structure (Buzan, 1995: uses (Arms Control, 2015). In 2006, Iran announced 202). The level of analysis in a social scientific the development of nuclear enrichment with study or International Relations Science is actually uranium. Western countries, including permanent not an obligation. However, the level of analysis is members of the United Nations Security Council believed to facilitate the choice of theory in (UN), are increasingly concerned about Iran's analysing the case studies that will be examined. In nuclear development. The United States in addition, the level of analysis is also considered to particular, considers that Iran is developing nuclear be able to make research more focused on the scope weapons because Iran has used material of uranium of the discussion or its explanandum and make a element is high enough and pure plutonium (White more comprehensive analysis(Sulistyo, 2016). Many House, 2016). As a result, countries in the UN academics of International Relations are classifying Security Council and Germany and the EU propose different levels of analysis. Just like David Singer establishing a framework agreement for Iran in order (1961: 80-82), which divides the level of analysis into two, namely the international system and the

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national state. Unlike Singer, Neack (2008 in of various uncertainties or alternatives (McQuail, Dharmaputra, 2016) classifies the broader level of 2000 in Subiakto & Ida, 2015: 131). analysis, ie individual, system, and state. In Neack argument of analysis, state level of analysis includes domestic institutions, culture, as 4 MEDIA AND PUBLIC OPINION well as public opinion and the media. Public opinion and media are considered to be one of the most AND THE IRAN DEAL important levels of analysis and are not spared in analyzing foreign policy. Public opinion itself is an Iran is an Islamic republic located in the Persian external attitude of the community that is conveyed Gulf. Before becoming a republic itself, Iran was a and then formed due to an issue that is chained by monarchy held by an authoritarian monarch and had the media (Ida, 2016). In relation to foreign policy a track record as a country with limited freedom of making, there is a debate between whether public expression (Kerr 2016: 152). But after the Iranian opinion can be influential in the process of foreign Revolution in 1979, Iran gave an opportunity for its policy-making or just being limited to "consumers" people to be more flexible in their opinion and who enjoy the outcome of decisions by political politics in the government even closer with the elites. Gabriel Almond (1950 in Holsti, 1992: 442) West. Now, Iran ruled by a President named Hassan himself mentions that the public actually tends to be Rouhani who is rumored to be more open to the indifferent to foreign policy and is considered West. With regard to Iran's own Nuclear Treaty "volatile" in response to international phenomena. Framework, the Iranian people had previously hoped This is due to the lack of structure and content that that the president elected since 2013 would be able the public understands. As a result, Almond (1950, to change his country's conditions for the better, in Holsti, 1992: 442) believes that public opinion has especially in the economic field. When Rouhani little influence in directing foreign policy. This elected as Iran's presidential candidate in 2013, he Almond statement later also relates to David Brulé's gave a pledge to the wider chance for Iranians to be top-down approach and Alex Mintz (in elected to the seat of government power. Rouhani Dharmaputra, 2016). According to them, there are (Middleeasteye, 2015) then came to power and three classes of public interest and interest in public began to show his steps to the Iranian society in opinion and policy. First, public who do not order to solve Iran's economic problems and provide understand the issues and social phenomena widely. its supporters (grassroots) with social freedom. On Second, attentive public interested but not too much the issue of Iran's own domestic economy, such as influence in the policy making process. Finally, the high unemployment issues is widely perceived to public elite is interested and has enough information have become public opinion capable of influencing to influence public opinion making and government policy-making in the era of the Rouhani regime. To policy. In this case, the government can follow the achieve these objectives, Rouhani further seeks to willingness of public opinion to form foreign policy end the sanctions imposed by the United Nations, or even vice versa. the European Union and other Western countries on Furthermore, public opinion channelled through Iran's nuclear development that is run to date the media is also considered capable of becoming (Middleeasteye, 2015). The public also considers one of the influence of foreign policy making. that the sanctions imposed on Iran have been However, there is also debate that the media is only detrimental to the domestic, given that it is capable able to continue the policy of the government of influencing international cooperation especially through its publicity. This itself can be because the with the major powers such as China, the United media is not 100 percent independent or is actually States, France, Germany and other EU countries. In controlled by a certain political elite. Robinson the end, the international world, especially the (2002: 26) in his book The CNN Effect: The Myth Western countries, chose to terminate its aid, trade, of News, Foreign Policy, and Intervention later and foreign investment to Iran because of its believes that media only influences when response or concern over Iran's unsafe nuclear government policy is unclear. As a result, the media development allegations. Yet when looking at the can framing certain issues to shape public opinion abundant wealth of petroleum resources, Iran has a which then generates a sphere of concession in great opportunity to conduct trade cooperation with assisting the formation of foreign policy. Thus, the the wider international world. Thus, the public mass media can be viewed as a guide or interpreter believes that Iran's economic movements are consequently slower and governments abandoned

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with the big powers can not meet the needs of their As the authors wrote earlier, the majority of people, including in terms of job provision. Iranians themselves are encouraging the Hassan Looking at the above phenomenon, the author Rouhani regime to hold meetings with the major believes that the public has been able to convey their powers, including P5 + 1, to discuss Iran's related opinions through the media, so it can be an issue or nuclear development and negotiate the lifting of an important problem at the domestic level. The sanctions. In the end, Iran agreed on the outcome of issue of weakening the economy has prompted the its negotiations with the countries in an Iranian Hassan Rouhani regime to negotiate further with the Nuclear Framework Agreement which is also major powers in the UN Security Council, the P5 + 1 supported by Iranian society. The proof, as many as with Germany and the European Union, over nuclear 57% of Iranians support their foreign policy to development in the country that is accused of being pursue a Swiss based agreement (Lausanne) one of the nuclear weapons plans. Looking back at Understanding which became the forerunner of the the two approaches of David Brulé and Alex Mintz Iran Nuclear Framework Agreement with the P5 + 1 (in Dharmaputra, 2016), the authors see that the countries (Gallagher, et al., 2015: 12-13.) Only 15% public opinion formed is categorized as a case study of Iranians oppose and 28% others choose to follow of a bottom-up approach. This is because Hassan government policy or do not know the framework of Rouhani, who is basically the president or leader of the agreement. For Iranians who support their own Iran, follows the will of the masses. In contrast to accord, they believe that Iran can increase its the bottom-up approach, the top-down approach cooperation with the P5 + 1 countries in building the itself is seen in terms of the popular consensus made latest nuclear reactor and benefiting its domestic by the elite function by reviewing national interests economy. In addition, most importantly the Iranian and without regard to public opinion. The second community believes that the Iranian Nuclear approach is certainly not suitable for analyzing case Agreement Framework made with P5 + 1 will also studies that occurred in Iran. reduce the tendency of domestic economic The public opinion response related to Iran's own mismanagement and corruption by governments nuclear development has been studied by the (Gallagher, et al., 2015: 13). Looking at this case University of Center for Public Opinion study, the authors then classify that the public in Iran Research (UTCPOR) in 2014 and previously by has a high level of knowledge and interest in its research organizations related to public opinion, foreign policy in pursuit of Iran's Nuclear such as Iran Poll.com, The Program for Public Framework Agreement. In this case, most Iranians Consultation (PPC) , and The Center for can be classified as political elites who are able to International and Security Studies at Maryland encourage the creation of public opinion. In fact, (CISSM). In 2014 alone, UTCPOR conducts surveys public opinion is able to push the Iranian parliament to Iranians both living in Iran and outside Iran with and leaders to agree on the Iran Nuclear Framework the question "How important is your opinion on Agreement as Rouhani wants to defend his Iran's nuclear development program?" (Gallagher, et constituency to keep supporting his regime until the al., 2015: 8). As a result, four out of five, or rather next general election. 83%, Iranian society responded that the nuclear The formation of public opinion cannot be development program is so important to the country. separated from the role of media. As Robinson While 11% more, stated that Iran's nuclear (2002: 28-29) says, the media has been framing development is not so important. Research related to issues that focus on individual suffering and public response to Iran's nuclear development is identifying them as victims who need help from the actually also done by organizations and the results "outside". Subiakto and Ida (2015: 14) in his book were obtained an average of 80% of Iranians Communications, Politics, Media, and Democracy consider it important. Furthermore, UTCPOR is also say that framing is done by the media to build and informed that the majority of Iranians, ie 73%, influence the interpretation of the reader or viewer believe that the development of nuclear technology about an issue. In this case, the media influence how in the country is aimed purely for peace (Gallagher, the public sees and evaluates the politics of its et al., 2015: 8). They believe that nuclear developed government. The author then analyzes how the in Iran alone can help Iran's energy and medical development of the media in Iran is related to its needs. In addition, public opinion formed in Iran nuclear development, especially under the Rouhani also shows that Iranians are optimistic that nuclear regime. According to the BBC (2016) in its story development could improve Iran's economic, entitled Iran profile - the media, all broadcasts in cultural, social, and military or security progress. Iran have been controlled by the state and must

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reflect on its official ideology. Radio channels in television channels and reformist newspapers, Iran are interconnected as the majority are operated including Roozan, Hamkari Melli, and , by the state-owned Islamic Republic of Iran announced that the beginning of the era of Broadcasting (IRIB). US-based Freedom House cooperation could improve Iran's ties with the West. ranked Iran on the third level after China and Syria Victory through diplomatic channels by the Iranian as the worst country for internet freedom. Although government is considered capable of bringing new there are some private media, but the media is hope to the public. In other Iranian conservative mostly held by the minions of the Iranian newspapers, such as Javan, Resalat, Jomhouri government itself. In the era of Khamenei's own Islami, more emphasized that the Iranian resistance regime, some Iranian media such as Kayhan, became to Western sanctions is crucial because it is the mouthpiece of government policy. The news is considered a victory for Iran without going through mostly related to Iran's nuclear issue, even if it does war (Foreignaffairs, 2015). The euphoria of Iranian not comply with Khamenei's official stance society towards the achievement of Iran's Nuclear (Freedom House, 2015). Framework Agreement is also not out of the media In Rouhani era, Rouhani promised to further spotlight. One of them, the internet portal Middle reduce media and information restrictions (Freedom East Eye (2015) mentions that many Iranians who House, 2015). This can be seen from one of the mass then took to the streets after breaking the fast to media owned by the Iranian government in English, celebrate the decision against nuclear deal. called Tehran Times. In an online portal located at The authors consider that Robinson's (2002: 25) www.tehrantimes.com (2016), there are almost 4000 explanation of the influence of mass media in articles and news with the keyword "nuclear deal". foreign policy can be applicable in analyzing the The authors analyzed that the news regarding public role of the media against the policy making of the opinion criticizing government policies increase in Iran Nuclear Framework Agreement under the the Rouhani era. Such as news on September 20, Hassan Rouhani regime. Indeed in previous Iranian 2015 in Tehrantimes (2015) under the title Vice regimes, media and information were so controlled President of Hopeful of New Beginning for Iran. In or restricted. The mass media has legitimate news the news, the country hopes to abolish sanctions due because the data came directly from the state. This to Iran's nuclear development that could have a shows that the media in Iran previously only major impact on oil and gas revenues. Furthermore, continued the policy of the government. In the era of Tehrantimes news (2015) on August 22, 2015 under Rouhani itself, government and private media and the title British-Iran ties After Sanctions stating that even foreign information are so intense about its the effect of physical sanctions from the United policies, especially related to Iran's Nuclear Kingdom is actually not very meaningful for the Framework Agreement. Moreover, foreign policy development of Iran's capacity and capabilities. But uncertainty over the Iranian nuclear deal that did not for financial sanctions alone, Iran's domestic meet the point of clarity with the Western countries economic condition is quite disturbed as other in previous government regimes, made the public countries tend to prevent capital inflows from actively voiced their opinions and encouraged the entering Iran. Even in fairly recent news, December media to raise the issue. Luckily, the Rouhani 21, 2016, Tehrantimes (2016) dare to make the news regime itself is broadening the spread of information of Rouhani's Losing Support, Still Likely to Win Re- and mass media. In addition, Rouhani also promised election: Analysts say that poor economic his policy regarding nuclear deal to the public in performance makes the Rouhani government one of order for international economic sanctions to be the reasons for its declining popularity, though after lifted, in accordance with public opinion spread in the abolition of some international sanctions due to the media and surveys made by domestic and Iran's Nuclear Treaty Framework. The Iranian foreign organizations. community itself is still so familiar and waits with previous promises that focus the cabinet's performance in its regime to fight for an 5 CONCLUSION international nuclear deal and domestic economic improvement over the past three years. Foreign Policy Analysis is one of the studies in After reaching agreement in negotiations related International Relations which looks at how complex to the nuclear deal with P5 + 1 countries, Iranian the policy-making process and the factors that affect media then also intensively reported the news. As why a country takes a particular policy. The author quoted by Foreignaffairs.com (2015), various himself then concludes that the is

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