CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

Delegates Estimate: Current Early-contest Standings

All Early States Iowa Nevada New Hampshire South Carolina Biden 600 20 14 9 38 Warren 545 10 9 9 8 Sanders 286 11 13 6 8 O’Rourke 34 0 0 0 0 Harris 16 0 0 0 0 Klobuchar 13 0 0 0 0

Based on a multilevel regression and poststratiﬁcation model incorporating voter responses to this survey. Early states are those expected to hold contests up to and including Super Tuesday: AL, AR, CA, CO, IA, ME, MA, MN, NV, NH, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA.1

Sample 7,804 Registered Voters who are Democrats2 Conducted August 28 – September 4, 2019 Margin of Error 1.8% ±

1. How would you rate the condition of the national economy today? Verygood ...... 5% Fairly good ...... 38% Fairlybad ...... 36% Verybad ...... 12% Notsure ...... 9%

2. How likely is it you will vote in the Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state next year? Verylikely ...... 81% Somewhat likely ...... 12% Notverylikely ...... 2% Not at all likely ...... 2% Toosoontosay ...... 2%

1See the methodology statements at the end of the document for an explanation of the model and uncertainty estimates. 2Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents are included.

1 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

3. As of now, which of these current Democratic candidates are you considering supporting for the 2020 Demo- cratic Presidential nomination. You can select more than one, if you wish, or none if appropriate. CHECK ALL THAT APPLY Among likely voters Elizabeth Warren ...... 60% Joe Biden ...... 50% Bernie Sanders ...... 48% Kamala Harris ...... 40% Pete Buttigieg ...... 29% Beto O’Rourke ...... 22% Cory Booker ...... 20% Julian Castro ...... 17% Andrew Yang ...... 13% Amy Klobuchar ...... 10% TomSteyer ...... 6% Tulsi Gabbard ...... 5% Michael Bennet ...... 4% Marianne Williamson ...... 4% Steve Bullock ...... 3% TimRyan ...... 3% Bill de Blasio ...... 3% John Delaney ...... 3% Joe Sestak ...... 2% Wayne Messam ...... 1%

2 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

4. Among the candidates you are considering, if the 2020 Democratic primary or caucus in your state were held today, which ONE of those candidates would you vote for? Among likely voters. Asked only about candidates respondent is considering voting for. Elizabeth Warren ...... 26% Joe Biden ...... 25% Bernie Sanders ...... 19% Kamala Harris ...... 8% Pete Buttigieg ...... 6% Beto O’Rourke ...... 4% Julian Castro ...... 2% CoryBooker ...... 2% Amy Klobuchar ...... 1% AndrewYang ...... 1% Tulsi Gabbard ...... 1% Michael Bennet ...... 1% Steve Bullock ...... 1% John Delaney ...... 1% TimRyan ...... 0% Marianne Williamson ...... 0% TomSteyer ...... 0% Wayne Messam ...... 0% Bill de Blasio ...... 0% Joe Sestak ...... 0% Someone else ...... 1%

3 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

5. And who would be your SECOND choice among the candidates you are considering? Among likely voters. Asked only about candidates respondent is considering voting for. Elizabeth Warren ...... 25% Bernie Sanders ...... 17% Kamala Harris ...... 14% Joe Biden ...... 13% Pete Buttigieg ...... 7% Beto O’Rourke ...... 5% Julian Castro ...... 3% CoryBooker ...... 3% AndrewYang ...... 3% Amy Klobuchar ...... 2% Tulsi Gabbard ...... 2% TomSteyer ...... 1% TimRyan ...... 1% Steve Bullock ...... 1% Michael Bennet ...... 1% Joe Sestak ...... 1% Marianne Williamson ...... 0% John Delaney ...... 0% Wayne Messam ...... 0% Bill de Blasio ...... 0% None of these ...... 1%

6. Just your best guess... How would you describe Joe Biden’s chances of beating Donald Trump, if he is the Democratic nominee? Among likely voters considering Joe Biden They probably would win ...... 77% Maybe they can win ...... 21% They’d be a long shot to win ...... 2%

7. Just your best guess... How would you describe Elizabeth Warren’s chances of beating Donald Trump, if she is the Democratic nominee? Among likely voters considering Elizabeth Warren They probably would win ...... 55% Maybe they can win ...... 40% They’d be a long shot to win ...... 5%

4 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

8. Just your best guess... How would you describe Bernie Sanders’s chances of beating Donald Trump, if he is the Democratic nominee? Among likely voters considering Bernie Sanders They probably would win ...... 58% Maybe they can win ...... 36% They’d be a long shot to win ...... 6%

9. Just your best guess... How would you describe Kamala Harris’s chances of beating Donald Trump, if she is the Democratic nominee? Among likely voters considering Kamala Harris They probably would win ...... 44% Maybe they can win ...... 47% They’d be a long shot to win ...... 9%

10. Just your best guess... How would you describe Pete Buttigieg’s chances of beating Donald Trump, if he is the Democratic nominee? Among likely voters considering Pete Buttigieg They probably would win ...... 34% Maybe they can win ...... 50% They’d be a long shot to win ...... 16%

11. Which of these are reasons you are considering Joe Biden? CHECK ALL THAT APPLY Among likely voters considering Joe Biden His time as Vice President with Barack Obama ...... 87% His time in the U.S. Senate ...... 59% He’s familiar to me ...... 52% His policy stances ...... 59% His gender/he’s a man ...... 5% His style of campaigning ...... 22% You saw him in person ...... 3%

12. Which of these are reasons you are considering Elizabeth Warren? CHECK ALL THAT APPLY Among likely voters considering Elizabeth Warren Her background before going to Washington ...... 57% Her time in the Senate ...... 71% Her policy stances ...... 90% She’s familiar to me ...... 32% Her gender/she’s a woman ...... 34% Her style of campaigning ...... 47% You saw her in person ...... 4%

5 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

13. Which of these are reasons you are considering Bernie Sanders? CHECK ALL THAT APPLY Among likely voters considering Bernie Sanders His run for President last time in 2016 ...... 53% His time in the Senate ...... 60% He’s familiar to me ...... 40% His policy stances ...... 85% His gender/he’s a man ...... 3% His style of campaigning ...... 39% You saw him in person ...... 6%

14. Which of these are reasons you are considering Kamala Harris? CHECK ALL THAT APPLY Among likely voters considering Kamala Harris Her background before going to Washington ...... 52% Her time in the Senate ...... 60% Her policy stances ...... 76% She’s familiar to me ...... 34% Her gender/she’s a woman ...... 37% Her style of campaigning ...... 41% You saw her in person ...... 4%

15. How would you feel if each of these candidates becomes the 2020 Democratic nominee for President?

Enthusiastic Satisﬁed Disappointed Angry Joe Biden 29% 40% 24% 7% Kamala Harris 29% 45% 22% 4% Bernie Sanders 38% 38% 20% 4% Elizabeth Warren 46% 38% 13% 2%

16. The next Democratic presidential debate will be held on September 12, 2019. How likely are you to watch or listen? Verylikely ...... 45% Somewhat likely ...... 31% Not very likely ...... 12% Not at all likely ...... 8% Toosoontosay ...... 3%

6 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

17. Which would you most like to see the candidates talk about during the Democratic debates? How they are different from their Democratic opponents ...... 19% What they would do if they became president ...... 62% Why they can beat Donald Trump ...... 19%

18. Do you think the way the Democratic Party selects candidates for debates is fair or unfair? Fair ...... 50% Unfair ...... 13% Haven’t heard enough to say ...... 37%

19. Right now, do you feel confident or uneasy that the Democrats will nominate someone who can beat Donald Trump? Very confident ...... 25% Somewhat confident ...... 39% Somewhat uneasy ...... 29% Veryuneasy ...... 7%

20. Regardless of who you might consider, which of these candidates do you think so far has been the most...

Bernie Elizabeth Joe Biden Kamala Harris Sanders Warren Easy to relate to 30% 17% 25% 28% Inspiring 18% 19% 28% 34% Knowledgeable on the issues 24% 10% 24% 42% Presidential 41% 11% 19% 28%

21. Regardless of who you might consider, do you feel these candidates are too young to serve effectively as president, too old to serve effectively as president, or is their age not a concern?

Too young Age not a concern Too old Joe Biden 2% 66% 31% Kamala Harris 7% 92% 1% Bernie Sanders 2% 61% 37% Elizabeth Warren 2% 93% 5%

7 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

22. For you personally, how do you rate the importance of these issues in the 2020 election...

Somewhat Very important important Not very important Health care 89% 10% 1% Jobs and wages 69% 28% 2% Immigration 62% 30% 8% Income inequality 71% 25% 4% Guns 76% 18% 6% Climate change 80% 15% 4% Social justice 67% 28% 5% Education 70% 27% 3% Abortion 55% 31% 14%

23. Would you favor or oppose the U.S. creating a national, government-administered "Medicare for All" program, available to all individuals? Favor ...... 57% Oppose ...... 6% It depends on the costs and details ...... 37%

24. Is [ﬁrst choice candidate]’s position on healthcare: The main reason you are backing him/her ...... 6% Just one of the many reasons you are backing him/her ...... 70% Not a reason you are backing him/her ...... 11% Haven’t heard about his/her healthcare position ...... 13%

25. If you could choose, which should be Democrats’ approach to the 2020 election? Should their message be to try to... Return the country to the way it was before Donald Trump took ofﬁce ...... 40% Advance a more progressive agenda than the country had under Barack Obama ...... 60%

8 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

26. Thinking about [ﬁrst choice candidate], how likely would you be to do each of the following to help him/her?

Will deﬁnitely Will probably Will probably Will deﬁnitely do do not do not do Volunteer for their campaign 14% 24% 41% 21% Donate money to their campaign or cause 25% 31% 27% 17% Persuade friends or family to vote for him or her 35% 40% 17% 8% Share, tweet or post about them on social media 29% 27% 23% 20% Attend a campaign event if it was held in your area 30% 35% 23% 12%

27. Do you follow any of the candidates directly on any online platform? Yes ...... 38% No ...... 62%

28. Do you yourself post messages, tweet, or share information about candidates on any online platform? Yes ...... 35% No ...... 65%

29. In general, how would you describe your own political viewpoint? Veryliberal ...... 33% Somewhat liberal ...... 30% Moderate ...... 26% Somewhat conservative ...... 5% Very conservative ...... 3% Notsure ...... 3%

Other questions held for future release. Branched questions/followups with small samples sizes excluded.

9 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

1. Condition of National Economy How would you rate the condition of the national economy today?

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Very good 5% 8% 3% 7% 9% 3% 2% 5% 5% 8% Fairly good 38% 42% 34% 37% 35% 35% 44% 40% 32% 35% Fairly bad 36% 32% 39% 37% 35% 38% 34% 37% 36% 32% Very bad 12% 12% 13% 9% 13% 16% 9% 10% 14% 16% Not sure 9% 6% 11% 10% 8% 8% 10% 7% 13% 9%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,802) (3,358) (4,445) (1,637) (2,046) (2,598) (1,522) (4,477) (1,484) (1,216)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Very good 5% 5% 5% 3% 3% 4% 25% Fairly good 38% 37% 37% 41% 37% 39% 34% Fairly bad 36% 37% 36% 36% 39% 34% 22% Very bad 12% 12% 12% 11% 12% 11% 16% Not sure 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 11% 3%

Totals 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 99% 100% Weighted N (7,802) (7,275) (6,226) (1,522) (4,904) (2,245) (602)

1 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

2. Likely to vote in Democratic Primary How likely is it you will vote in the Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state next year?

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Very likely 81% 81% 81% 72% 77% 85% 89% 82% 83% 78% Somewhat likely 12% 12% 12% 18% 15% 9% 7% 11% 13% 14% Not very likely 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% Not at all likely 2% 2% 2% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% Too soon to say 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1% 2% 2% 3%

Totals 99% 99% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,804) (3,358) (4,446) (1,637) (2,047) (2,598) (1,522) (4,478) (1,485) (1,216)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Very likely 81% 87% 83% 72% 87% 73% 64% Somewhat likely 12% 13% 12% 13% 8% 17% 28% Not very likely 2% 0% 1% 5% 2% 3% 3% Not at all likely 2% 0% 1% 6% 2% 2% 3% Too soon to say 2% 0% 2% 4% 1% 5% 2%

Totals 99% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,804) (7,276) (6,227) (1,522) (4,904) (2,246) (603)

2 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

3. Democratic Candidates Considered As of now, which of these current Democratic candidates are you considering supporting for the 2020 Democratic Presidential nomination. You can select more than one, if you wish, or none if appropriate. CHECK ALL THAT APPLY Among likely voters

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Elizabeth Warren 60% 61% 59% 59% 56% 61% 64% 68% 43% 50% Joe Biden 50% 47% 51% 30% 40% 58% 68% 44% 69% 47% Bernie Sanders 48% 50% 47% 58% 55% 45% 36% 48% 45% 49% Kamala Harris 40% 39% 40% 33% 39% 44% 40% 41% 38% 34% Pete Buttigieg 29% 32% 27% 27% 26% 29% 36% 38% 11% 21% Beto O’Rourke 22% 23% 22% 23% 21% 25% 20% 21% 21% 32% Cory Booker 20% 22% 18% 15% 20% 20% 24% 20% 26% 11% Julian Castro 17% 20% 15% 16% 16% 18% 18% 16% 14% 26% Andrew Yang 13% 16% 10% 20% 14% 10% 9% 14% 7% 13% Amy Klobuchar 10% 11% 9% 8% 8% 10% 15% 14% 4% 6% Tom Steyer 6% 8% 4% 4% 4% 6% 9% 6% 6% 5% Tulsi Gabbard 5% 7% 4% 9% 7% 4% 3% 6% 3% 6% Michael Bennet 4% 6% 3% 5% 4% 3% 4% 5% 2% 4% Marianne Williamson 4% 5% 3% 4% 6% 3% 2% 3% 5% 5% Steve Bullock 3% 5% 2% 6% 4% 2% 3% 4% 2% 3% Tim Ryan 3% 4% 2% 4% 4% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% Bill de Blasio 3% 4% 2% 4% 4% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% John Delaney 3% 3% 2% 5% 4% 1% 1% 3% 3% 3% Joe Sestak 2% 3% 1% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2% 1% 2% Wayne Messam 1% 2% 1% 3% 3% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2%

Weighted N (7,276) (3,140) (4,137) (1,478) (1,890) (2,438) (1,470) (4,180) (1,413) (1,115)

3 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Elizabeth Warren 60% 60% 58% 68% 72% 43% 25% Joe Biden 50% 50% 52% 39% 43% 64% 48% Bernie Sanders 48% 48% 46% 57% 53% 41% 34% Kamala Harris 40% 40% 40% 38% 45% 31% 23% Pete Buttigieg 29% 29% 28% 35% 36% 20% 10% Beto O’Rourke 22% 22% 23% 19% 24% 19% 17% Cory Booker 20% 20% 20% 19% 21% 17% 17% Julian Castro 17% 17% 17% 16% 19% 14% 11% Andrew Yang 13% 13% 11% 20% 14% 12% 5% Amy Klobuchar 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 9% 7% Tom Steyer 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 7% 6% Tulsi Gabbard 5% 5% 4% 10% 6% 4% 3% Michael Bennet 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 10% Marianne Williamson 4% 4% 3% 6% 4% 3% 6% Steve Bullock 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 5% Tim Ryan 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 14% Bill de Blasio 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 9% John Delaney 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 9% Joe Sestak 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 8% Wayne Messam 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 5%

Weighted N (7,276) (7,276) (5,929) (1,304) (4,663) (2,019) (553)

4 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

4. Democratic Presidential Primary Vote Among the candidates you are considering, if the 2020 Democratic primary or caucus in your state were held today, which ONE of those candidates would you vote for? Among likely voters. Asked only about candidates respondent is considering voting for.

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Elizabeth Warren 26% 26% 26% 23% 27% 26% 26% 32% 11% 19% Joe Biden 25% 22% 28% 11% 17% 31% 41% 19% 46% 26% Bernie Sanders 19% 19% 20% 30% 24% 14% 10% 19% 14% 22% Kamala Harris 8% 8% 8% 7% 8% 10% 7% 7% 11% 7% Pete Buttigieg 6% 7% 5% 7% 5% 6% 6% 8% 2% 5% Beto O’Rourke 4% 5% 3% 5% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 7% Julian Castro 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 6% Cory Booker 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 1% Amy Klobuchar 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 0% 0% Andrew Yang 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% Tulsi Gabbard 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% Michael Bennet 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% Steve Bullock 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% John Delaney 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% Tim Ryan 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% Marianne Williamson 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Tom Steyer 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Wayne Messam 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% Bill de Blasio 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% Joe Sestak 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Someone else 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Totals 99% 100% 100% 99% 99% 97% 99% 100% 99% 99% Weighted N (7,187) (3,120) (4,067) (1,451) (1,872) (2,402) (1,461) (4,139) (1,382) (1,109)

5 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Elizabeth Warren 26% 26% 25% 30% 33% 13% 9% Joe Biden 25% 25% 27% 17% 18% 41% 35% Bernie Sanders 19% 19% 17% 27% 21% 17% 11% Kamala Harris 8% 8% 9% 7% 8% 8% 8% Pete Buttigieg 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 5% 1% Beto O’Rourke 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% Julian Castro 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 4% Cory Booker 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 4% Amy Klobuchar 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% Andrew Yang 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% Tulsi Gabbard 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% Michael Bennet 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 4% Steve Bullock 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% John Delaney 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% Tim Ryan 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 2% Marianne Williamson 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% Tom Steyer 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% Wayne Messam 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Bill de Blasio 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% Joe Sestak 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Someone else 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 4%

Totals 99% 99% 100% 100% 99% 99% 100% Weighted N (7,187) (7,187) (5,859) (1,285) (4,636) (1,974) (547)

6 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

5. Democratic Presidential Primary 2nd Choice And who would be your SECOND choice among the candidates you are considering? Among likely voters. Asked only about candidates respondent is considering voting for.

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Elizabeth Warren 25% 25% 24% 23% 21% 24% 30% 26% 20% 22% Bernie Sanders 17% 17% 17% 21% 19% 16% 11% 16% 19% 17% Kamala Harris 14% 12% 16% 11% 15% 17% 13% 14% 18% 9% Joe Biden 13% 13% 14% 10% 11% 16% 14% 12% 18% 13% Pete Buttigieg 7% 8% 7% 7% 6% 7% 10% 11% 1% 5% Beto O’Rourke 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 3% 7% 9% Julian Castro 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 9% Cory Booker 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 5% 2% Andrew Yang 3% 3% 2% 4% 4% 2% 1% 3% 1% 4% Amy Klobuchar 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 1% 1% Tulsi Gabbard 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% Tom Steyer 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% Tim Ryan 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% Steve Bullock 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% Michael Bennet 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% Joe Sestak 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% Marianne Williamson 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% John Delaney 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Wayne Messam 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Bill de Blasio 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% None of these 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Totals 100% 100% 97% 100% 99% 97% 100% 100% 99% 98% Weighted N (5,750) (2,557) (3,194) (1,172) (1,489) (1,884) (1,205) (3,459) (1,029) (825)

7 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Elizabeth Warren 25% 25% 23% 31% 27% 21% 10% Bernie Sanders 17% 17% 17% 16% 17% 14% 18% Kamala Harris 14% 14% 14% 14% 16% 13% 6% Joe Biden 13% 13% 14% 10% 11% 18% 17% Pete Buttigieg 7% 7% 7% 9% 8% 6% 4% Beto O’Rourke 5% 5% 5% 3% 5% 4% 8% Julian Castro 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 1% Cory Booker 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4% 2% Andrew Yang 3% 3% 2% 4% 3% 3% 1% Amy Klobuchar 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% Tulsi Gabbard 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% Tom Steyer 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 3% 2% Tim Ryan 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 6% Steve Bullock 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 2% Michael Bennet 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% Joe Sestak 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 7% Marianne Williamson 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% John Delaney 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 4% Wayne Messam 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Bill de Blasio 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% None of these 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 4%

Totals 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 98% 100% Weighted N (5,750) (5,750) (4,638) (1,088) (3,916) (1,445) (362)

8 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

6. Chances of Beating Trump - Joe Biden Just your best guess... How would you describe Joe Biden’s chances of beating Donald Trump, if he is the Democratic nominee? Among likely voters considering Joe Biden

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

They probably would win 77% 78% 76% 71% 69% 79% 83% 74% 78% 83% Maybe they can win 21% 19% 22% 25% 29% 19% 15% 23% 20% 15% They’d be a long shot to win 2% 3% 2% 4% 2% 2% 2% 3% 1% 2%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% Weighted N (3,592) (1,476) (2,115) (446) (745) (1,407) (993) (1,846) (971) (519)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

They probably would win 77% 77% 78% 73% 80% 73% 80% Maybe they can win 21% 21% 20% 25% 18% 25% 17% They’d be a long shot to win 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (3,592) (3,592) (3,073) (504) (2,017) (1,294) (260)

9 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

7. Chances of Beating Trump - Elizabeth Warren Just your best guess... How would you describe Elizabeth Warren’s chances of beating Donald Trump, if she is the Democratic nominee? Among likely voters considering Elizabeth Warren

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

They probably would win 55% 62% 51% 45% 50% 59% 65% 56% 54% 50% Maybe they can win 40% 35% 44% 48% 44% 36% 32% 39% 40% 46% They’d be a long shot to win 5% 3% 5% 7% 6% 4% 3% 5% 6% 4%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (4,323) (1,904) (2,419) (866) (1,055) (1,460) (942) (2,840) (594) (557)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

They probably would win 55% 55% 55% 56% 59% 44% 52% Maybe they can win 40% 40% 40% 40% 37% 50% 34% They’d be a long shot to win 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 6% 14%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (4,323) (4,323) (3,427) (882) (3,335) (852) (134)

10 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

8. Chances of Beating Trump - Bernie Sanders Just your best guess... How would you describe Bernie Sanders’s chances of beating Donald Trump, if he is the Democratic nominee? Among likely voters considering Bernie Sanders

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

They probably would win 58% 65% 53% 57% 60% 57% 60% 58% 52% 64% Maybe they can win 36% 28% 42% 37% 34% 37% 34% 35% 40% 34% They’d be a long shot to win 6% 7% 5% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 2%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 99% 99% 100% Weighted N (3,493) (1,571) (1,922) (856) (1,025) (1,089) (523) (2,002) (636) (538)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

They probably would win 58% 58% 56% 69% 61% 52% 54% Maybe they can win 36% 36% 38% 26% 35% 38% 42% They’d be a long shot to win 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 9% 4%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% Weighted N (3,493) (3,493) (2,730) (739) (2,459) (830) (188)

11 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

9. Chances of Beating Trump - Kamala Harris Just your best guess... How would you describe Kamala Harris’s chances of beating Donald Trump, if she is the Democratic nominee? Among likely voters considering Kamala Harris

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

They probably would win 44% 52% 39% 31% 46% 48% 48% 43% 43% 49% Maybe they can win 47% 42% 50% 57% 46% 44% 43% 49% 46% 41% They’d be a long shot to win 9% 6% 11% 12% 8% 8% 9% 8% 11% 10%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (2,861) (1,221) (1,641) (479) (732) (1,065) (585) (1,703) (531) (376)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

They probably would win 44% 44% 44% 47% 46% 37% 49% Maybe they can win 47% 47% 47% 44% 46% 52% 38% They’d be a long shot to win 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 11% 13%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (2,861) (2,861) (2,361) (496) (2,108) (625) (124)

12 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

10. Chances of Beating Trump - Pete Buttigieg Just your best guess... How would you describe Pete Buttigieg’s chances of beating Donald Trump, if he is the Democratic nominee? Among likely voters considering Pete Buttigieg

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

They probably would win 34% 39% 30% 37% 33% 36% 32% 34% 39% 37% Maybe they can win 50% 46% 53% 49% 50% 50% 47% 50% 45% 46% They’d be a long shot to win 16% 15% 17% 14% 17% 14% 21% 16% 16% 17%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (2,127) (1,005) (1,122) (395) (498) (713) (521) (1,585) (159) (239)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

They probably would win 34% 34% 36% 29% 35% 29% 40% Maybe they can win 50% 50% 49% 51% 50% 50% 35% They’d be a long shot to win 16% 16% 15% 20% 15% 21% 25%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (2,127) (2,127) (1,667) (459) (1,668) (406) (50)

13 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

11. Why Consider Biden Which of these are reasons you are considering Joe Biden? CHECK ALL THAT APPLY Among likely voters considering Joe Biden

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

His time as Vice President with Barack Obama 87% 85% 88% 84% 81% 88% 91% 88% 85% 84% His time in the U.S. Senate 59% 58% 59% 45% 49% 61% 69% 63% 51% 57% He’s familiar to me 52% 53% 51% 52% 52% 53% 51% 52% 53% 52% His policy stances 59% 57% 59% 47% 49% 60% 69% 62% 56% 55% His gender/he’s a man 5% 5% 4% 1% 7% 5% 4% 3% 7% 5% His style of campaigning 22% 22% 22% 20% 26% 21% 21% 20% 28% 22% You saw him in person 3% 4% 3% 5% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2%

Weighted N (3,612) (1,485) (2,128) (450) (752) (1,414) (996) (1,853) (981) (521)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

His time as Vice President with Barack Obama 87% 87% 86% 92% 90% 86% 73% His time in the U.S. Senate 59% 59% 58% 64% 60% 59% 46% He’s familiar to me 52% 52% 52% 55% 53% 53% 42% His policy stances 59% 59% 58% 60% 59% 61% 44% His gender/he’s a man 5% 5% 5% 3% 4% 4% 11% His style of campaigning 22% 22% 23% 19% 19% 25% 29% You saw him in person 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 5%

Weighted N (3,612) (3,612) (3,088) (508) (2,024) (1,300) (268)

14 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

12. Why Consider Warren Which of these are reasons you are considering Elizabeth Warren? CHECK ALL THAT APPLY Among likely voters considering Elizabeth Warren

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Her background before going to Washington 57% 56% 58% 56% 53% 57% 62% 60% 45% 55% Her time in the Senate 71% 70% 72% 71% 64% 71% 78% 75% 58% 61% Her policy stances 90% 92% 88% 88% 88% 91% 92% 94% 79% 83% She’s familiar to me 32% 33% 31% 29% 33% 32% 32% 33% 33% 30% Her gender/she’s a woman 34% 28% 39% 43% 32% 31% 32% 34% 36% 32% Her style of campaigning 47% 50% 45% 48% 42% 48% 51% 47% 51% 46% You saw her in person 4% 4% 3% 7% 3% 2% 4% 4% 4% 2%

Weighted N (4,356) (1,918) (2,438) (871) (1,060) (1,477) (948) (2,856) (607) (558)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Her background before going to Washington 57% 57% 57% 59% 60% 49% 43% Her time in the Senate 71% 71% 70% 73% 73% 66% 48% Her policy stances 90% 90% 89% 94% 94% 79% 53% She’s familiar to me 32% 32% 31% 33% 32% 30% 33% Her gender/she’s a woman 34% 34% 35% 30% 36% 29% 29% Her style of campaigning 47% 47% 48% 44% 48% 47% 35% You saw her in person 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 2% 4%

Weighted N (4,356) (4,356) (3,459) (883) (3,353) (863) (137)

15 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

13. Why Consider Sanders Which of these are reasons you are considering Bernie Sanders? CHECK ALL THAT APPLY Among likely voters considering Bernie Sanders

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

His run for President last time in 2016 53% 55% 51% 63% 53% 48% 43% 54% 51% 49% His time in the Senate 60% 60% 60% 60% 56% 62% 65% 62% 51% 59% He’s familiar to me 40% 38% 42% 42% 39% 40% 41% 40% 43% 38% His policy stances 85% 87% 85% 89% 85% 83% 86% 90% 72% 81% His gender/he’s a man 3% 3% 4% 2% 5% 4% 2% 3% 6% 4% His style of campaigning 39% 37% 40% 46% 38% 36% 31% 37% 42% 38% You saw him in person 6% 6% 6% 7% 5% 7% 4% 7% 2% 6%

Weighted N (3,515) (1,576) (1,939) (863) (1,033) (1,096) (523) (2,018) (637) (541)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

His run for President last time in 2016 53% 53% 51% 56% 55% 49% 41% His time in the Senate 60% 60% 59% 63% 62% 57% 49% He’s familiar to me 40% 40% 40% 42% 40% 44% 33% His policy stances 85% 85% 83% 93% 91% 77% 56% His gender/he’s a man 3% 3% 4% 2% 2% 4% 17% His style of campaigning 39% 39% 38% 39% 39% 38% 33% You saw him in person 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 3% 4%

Weighted N (3,515) (3,515) (2,743) (748) (2,473) (835) (190)

16 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

14. Why Consider Harris Which of these are reasons you are considering Kamala Harris? CHECK ALL THAT APPLY Among likely voters considering Kamala Harris

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Her background before going to Washington 52% 51% 54% 38% 44% 57% 65% 55% 50% 46% Her time in the Senate 60% 58% 62% 55% 56% 63% 64% 62% 57% 61% Her policy stances 76% 78% 74% 72% 71% 79% 81% 81% 67% 69% She’s familiar to me 34% 37% 32% 31% 33% 36% 32% 30% 40% 41% Her gender/she’s a woman 37% 30% 42% 44% 38% 34% 33% 36% 36% 39% Her style of campaigning 41% 43% 39% 40% 43% 40% 39% 39% 47% 45% You saw her in person 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 3% 6% 5%

Weighted N (2,882) (1,226) (1,656) (481) (738) (1,071) (593) (1,710) (540) (380)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Her background before going to Washington 52% 52% 52% 56% 52% 56% 36% Her time in the Senate 60% 60% 61% 58% 62% 58% 39% Her policy stances 76% 76% 75% 81% 80% 69% 47% She’s familiar to me 34% 34% 35% 28% 33% 37% 30% Her gender/she’s a woman 37% 37% 37% 33% 38% 31% 38% Her style of campaigning 41% 41% 42% 35% 40% 44% 36% You saw her in person 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 11%

Weighted N (2,882) (2,882) (2,378) (498) (2,118) (632) (128)

17 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

15A. Feel about Potential Nominees — Joe Biden How would you feel if each of these candidates becomes the 2020 Democratic nominee for President?

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Enthusiastic 29% 27% 30% 17% 21% 33% 42% 23% 46% 32% Satisﬁed 40% 39% 41% 36% 42% 42% 40% 40% 39% 43% Disappointed 24% 25% 23% 33% 28% 20% 15% 28% 12% 21% Angry 7% 9% 6% 13% 9% 5% 2% 9% 3% 4%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,692) (3,316) (4,375) (1,601) (2,020) (2,558) (1,513) (4,445) (1,443) (1,188)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Enthusiastic 29% 30% 31% 17% 24% 36% 39% Satisﬁed 40% 40% 41% 38% 39% 43% 41% Disappointed 24% 23% 22% 32% 28% 17% 16% Angry 7% 7% 6% 13% 9% 3% 4%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% Weighted N (7,692) (7,190) (6,142) (1,499) (4,867) (2,207) (581)

18 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

15B. Feel about Potential Nominees — Kamala Harris How would you feel if each of these candidates becomes the 2020 Democratic nominee for President?

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Enthusiastic 29% 28% 30% 23% 29% 33% 29% 28% 31% 31% Satisﬁed 45% 44% 45% 43% 48% 43% 45% 45% 45% 44% Disappointed 22% 22% 21% 28% 20% 20% 21% 22% 21% 22% Angry 4% 5% 3% 6% 3% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3%

Totals 100% 99% 99% 100% 100% 99% 99% 100% 99% 100% Weighted N (7,662) (3,308) (4,355) (1,591) (2,018) (2,548) (1,505) (4,432) (1,437) (1,179)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Enthusiastic 29% 29% 30% 25% 34% 22% 20% Satisﬁed 45% 45% 45% 42% 44% 45% 49% Disappointed 22% 22% 21% 26% 19% 27% 25% Angry 4% 4% 4% 6% 3% 5% 6%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 99% 100% Weighted N (7,662) (7,161) (6,117) (1,497) (4,857) (2,192) (576)

19 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

15C. Feel about Potential Nominees — Bernie Sanders How would you feel if each of these candidates becomes the 2020 Democratic nominee for President?

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Enthusiastic 38% 39% 36% 49% 43% 32% 27% 37% 34% 40% Satisﬁed 38% 36% 39% 31% 38% 42% 38% 34% 48% 40% Disappointed 20% 19% 21% 16% 15% 21% 30% 23% 16% 17% Angry 4% 5% 4% 4% 3% 5% 5% 6% 2% 3%

Totals 100% 99% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,680) (3,308) (4,372) (1,607) (2,018) (2,546) (1,509) (4,444) (1,443) (1,180)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Enthusiastic 38% 38% 37% 41% 43% 27% 31% Satisﬁed 38% 38% 38% 35% 34% 43% 43% Disappointed 20% 20% 20% 21% 19% 25% 17% Angry 4% 4% 5% 3% 4% 5% 9%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,680) (7,180) (6,128) (1,500) (4,867) (2,195) (582)

20 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

15D. Feel about Potential Nominees — Elizabeth Warren How would you feel if each of these candidates becomes the 2020 Democratic nominee for President?

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Enthusiastic 46% 48% 45% 42% 45% 48% 50% 53% 33% 41% Satisﬁed 38% 37% 39% 42% 40% 37% 34% 34% 48% 40% Disappointed 13% 12% 14% 14% 13% 12% 14% 11% 18% 17% Angry 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 2%

Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,675) (3,306) (4,369) (1,597) (2,017) (2,552) (1,509) (4,444) (1,434) (1,182)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Enthusiastic 46% 48% 46% 48% 58% 28% 23% Satisﬁed 38% 38% 38% 36% 33% 46% 46% Disappointed 13% 12% 13% 14% 8% 22% 27% Angry 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 4% 3%

Totals 99% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% Weighted N (7,675) (7,171) (6,121) (1,504) (4,864) (2,195) (579)

21 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

16. Watch September Debates The next Democratic presidential debate will be held on September 12, 2019. How likely are you to watch or listen?

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Very likely 45% 46% 45% 38% 42% 46% 55% 45% 46% 46% Somewhat likely 31% 30% 32% 36% 35% 29% 25% 30% 32% 35% Not very likely 12% 12% 12% 17% 12% 11% 9% 14% 10% 11% Not at all likely 8% 9% 8% 7% 8% 10% 7% 9% 7% 5% Too soon to say 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 5% 3%

Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,778) (3,348) (4,431) (1,623) (2,046) (2,587) (1,522) (4,474) (1,478) (1,206)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Very likely 45% 47% 47% 39% 48% 38% 49% Somewhat likely 31% 31% 31% 32% 30% 35% 31% Not very likely 12% 12% 11% 16% 12% 13% 10% Not at all likely 8% 7% 8% 10% 8% 9% 7% Too soon to say 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 5% 2%

Totals 99% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% Weighted N (7,778) (7,257) (6,210) (1,516) (4,900) (2,241) (601)

22 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

17. Candidate Debate Talk Which would you most like to see the candidates talk about during the Democratic debates?

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

How they are different from their Democratic opponents 19% 19% 19% 28% 28% 13% 8% 16% 21% 26% What they would do if they became president 62% 60% 62% 61% 57% 64% 64% 64% 59% 54% Why they can beat Donald Trump 19% 20% 19% 11% 15% 23% 28% 20% 20% 19%

Totals 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% Weighted N (7,755) (3,338) (4,418) (1,625) (2,036) (2,580) (1,514) (4,458) (1,470) (1,207)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

How they are different from their Democratic opponents 19% 19% 20% 16% 18% 16% 38% What they would do if they became president 62% 61% 60% 66% 63% 63% 49% Why they can beat Donald Trump 19% 20% 20% 18% 19% 20% 13%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% Weighted N (7,755) (7,238) (6,186) (1,515) (4,893) (2,224) (602)

23 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

18. Method for Selecting Debate Candidates Do you think the way the Democratic Party selects candidates for debates is fair or unfair?

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Fair 50% 55% 46% 45% 51% 50% 55% 51% 49% 50% Unfair 13% 17% 10% 17% 15% 11% 10% 15% 8% 13% Haven’t heard enough to say 37% 28% 43% 38% 33% 39% 35% 34% 43% 37%

Totals 100% 100% 99% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,768) (3,344) (4,424) (1,626) (2,039) (2,587) (1,516) (4,461) (1,479) (1,209)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Fair 50% 51% 52% 43% 53% 43% 56% Unfair 13% 13% 12% 20% 14% 12% 14% Haven’t heard enough to say 37% 35% 36% 37% 33% 45% 30%

Totals 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,768) (7,248) (6,201) (1,512) (4,894) (2,236) (602)

24 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

19. Conﬁdence in Eventual Democratic Nominee Right now, do you feel conﬁdent or uneasy that the Democrats will nominate someone who can beat Donald Trump?

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Very conﬁdent 25% 26% 25% 20% 24% 28% 28% 20% 38% 30% Somewhat conﬁdent 39% 36% 40% 40% 38% 39% 38% 39% 37% 41% Somewhat uneasy 29% 30% 28% 32% 30% 26% 28% 33% 20% 22% Very uneasy 7% 8% 7% 8% 8% 7% 6% 8% 5% 7%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,765) (3,345) (4,420) (1,627) (2,031) (2,586) (1,521) (4,472) (1,469) (1,206)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Very conﬁdent 25% 26% 28% 13% 23% 27% 42% Somewhat conﬁdent 39% 39% 39% 38% 41% 37% 26% Somewhat uneasy 29% 28% 26% 40% 30% 28% 23% Very uneasy 7% 7% 7% 9% 6% 8% 9%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,765) (7,247) (6,197) (1,514) (4,895) (2,233) (601)

25 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

20A. Candidate Superlatives — Easy to relate to Regardless of who you might consider, which of these candidates do you think so far has been the most...

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Joe Biden 30% 32% 29% 18% 23% 34% 46% 27% 42% 32% Kamala Harris 17% 15% 17% 19% 20% 16% 11% 14% 21% 20% Bernie Sanders 25% 26% 24% 37% 30% 20% 14% 24% 21% 30% Elizabeth Warren 28% 26% 30% 26% 27% 30% 29% 35% 15% 18%

Totals 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% Weighted N (7,597) (3,280) (4,317) (1,572) (1,994) (2,540) (1,491) (4,374) (1,442) (1,177)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Joe Biden 30% 30% 32% 25% 23% 43% 42% Kamala Harris 17% 16% 17% 13% 15% 16% 26% Bernie Sanders 25% 25% 24% 30% 27% 22% 22% Elizabeth Warren 28% 29% 27% 32% 35% 19% 10%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,597) (7,120) (6,073) (1,471) (4,835) (2,140) (589)

26 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

20B. Candidate Superlatives — Inspiring Regardless of who you might consider, which of these candidates do you think so far has been the most...

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Joe Biden 18% 17% 19% 12% 16% 20% 25% 13% 30% 24% Kamala Harris 19% 19% 19% 20% 20% 21% 14% 17% 26% 22% Bernie Sanders 28% 29% 28% 40% 35% 22% 17% 28% 22% 31% Elizabeth Warren 34% 34% 34% 27% 29% 37% 44% 42% 22% 23%

Totals 99% 99% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,598) (3,288) (4,310) (1,584) (2,004) (2,531) (1,479) (4,374) (1,430) (1,180)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Joe Biden 18% 18% 20% 10% 11% 27% 42% Kamala Harris 19% 19% 20% 16% 17% 22% 23% Bernie Sanders 28% 28% 26% 35% 31% 25% 20% Elizabeth Warren 34% 35% 33% 39% 40% 26% 15%

Totals 99% 100% 99% 100% 99% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,598) (7,111) (6,061) (1,484) (4,838) (2,144) (583)

27 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

20C. Candidate Superlatives — Knowledgeable on the issues Regardless of who you might consider, which of these candidates do you think so far has been the most...

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Joe Biden 24% 21% 26% 16% 21% 26% 31% 18% 38% 32% Kamala Harris 10% 10% 10% 10% 12% 11% 7% 7% 15% 14% Bernie Sanders 24% 24% 24% 36% 29% 19% 13% 23% 22% 30% Elizabeth Warren 42% 45% 40% 38% 38% 44% 49% 52% 25% 24%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,611) (3,292) (4,319) (1,574) (1,999) (2,538) (1,501) (4,402) (1,433) (1,171)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Joe Biden 24% 23% 26% 14% 15% 38% 46% Kamala Harris 10% 10% 11% 6% 8% 11% 20% Bernie Sanders 24% 24% 22% 31% 25% 22% 22% Elizabeth Warren 42% 43% 41% 49% 52% 28% 12%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% Weighted N (7,611) (7,125) (6,063) (1,495) (4,842) (2,159) (584)

28 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

20D. Candidate Superlatives — Presidential Regardless of who you might consider, which of these candidates do you think so far has been the most...

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Joe Biden 41% 41% 42% 29% 32% 48% 55% 37% 55% 43% Kamala Harris 11% 11% 11% 11% 14% 11% 8% 11% 11% 13% Bernie Sanders 19% 20% 19% 31% 24% 15% 8% 17% 19% 23% Elizabeth Warren 28% 28% 28% 29% 30% 26% 28% 35% 14% 21%

Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 99% 100% Weighted N (7,592) (3,290) (4,302) (1,572) (2,000) (2,535) (1,486) (4,382) (1,428) (1,178)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Joe Biden 41% 41% 43% 33% 33% 56% 54% Kamala Harris 11% 11% 11% 10% 12% 8% 18% Bernie Sanders 19% 19% 19% 22% 19% 19% 20% Elizabeth Warren 28% 28% 27% 35% 36% 17% 8%

Totals 99% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,592) (7,108) (6,049) (1,490) (4,836) (2,150) (581)

29 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

21A. Candidate Age — Joe Biden Regardless of who you might consider, do you feel these candidates are too young to serve effectively as president, too old to serve effectively as president, or is their age not a concern?

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Too young 2% 3% 1% 4% 4% 0% 0% 1% 3% 5% Age not a concern 66% 60% 71% 59% 64% 70% 72% 60% 82% 70% Too old 31% 36% 28% 37% 32% 30% 28% 38% 15% 24%

Totals 99% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 99% Weighted N (7,603) (3,289) (4,314) (1,580) (1,997) (2,528) (1,497) (4,382) (1,426) (1,183)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Too young 2% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 16% Age not a concern 66% 67% 68% 57% 61% 77% 68% Too old 31% 31% 29% 42% 37% 22% 15%

Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 99% Weighted N (7,603) (7,109) (6,070) (1,482) (4,841) (2,154) (577)

30 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

21B. Candidate Age — Kamala Harris Regardless of who you might consider, do you feel these candidates are too young to serve effectively as president, too old to serve effectively as president, or is their age not a concern?

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Too young 7% 9% 6% 6% 7% 8% 8% 6% 11% 10% Age not a concern 92% 89% 93% 91% 92% 91% 92% 94% 88% 88% Too old 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 2%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,591) (3,288) (4,302) (1,574) (1,998) (2,527) (1,492) (4,374) (1,423) (1,183)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Too young 7% 7% 8% 5% 5% 9% 21% Age not a concern 92% 92% 91% 93% 95% 90% 75% Too old 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 4%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,591) (7,099) (6,055) (1,485) (4,841) (2,143) (582)

31 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

21C. Candidate Age — Bernie Sanders Regardless of who you might consider, do you feel these candidates are too young to serve effectively as president, too old to serve effectively as president, or is their age not a concern?

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Too young 2% 3% 1% 4% 4% 0% 0% 2% 2% 4% Age not a concern 61% 59% 63% 59% 61% 62% 62% 58% 69% 64% Too old 37% 38% 36% 37% 35% 37% 38% 40% 29% 32%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,593) (3,285) (4,308) (1,578) (1,994) (2,528) (1,494) (4,375) (1,424) (1,183)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Too young 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 14% Age not a concern 61% 62% 61% 60% 61% 63% 59% Too old 37% 36% 36% 39% 38% 36% 27%

Totals 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,593) (7,103) (6,056) (1,486) (4,836) (2,148) (584)

32 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

21D. Candidate Age — Elizabeth Warren Regardless of who you might consider, do you feel these candidates are too young to serve effectively as president, too old to serve effectively as president, or is their age not a concern?

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Too young 2% 3% 2% 4% 5% 1% 0% 1% 4% 6% Age not a concern 93% 90% 95% 89% 90% 94% 97% 94% 91% 90% Too old 5% 7% 3% 7% 5% 5% 3% 5% 5% 4%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,595) (3,290) (4,305) (1,580) (1,995) (2,528) (1,492) (4,378) (1,422) (1,182)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Too young 2% 3% 3% 1% 1% 2% 15% Age not a concern 93% 93% 93% 92% 95% 92% 76% Too old 5% 4% 4% 6% 4% 6% 9%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,595) (7,101) (6,057) (1,487) (4,840) (2,149) (581)

33 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

22A. Issue Importance — Health care For you personally, how do you rate the importance of these issues in the 2020 election...

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Very important 89% 85% 91% 81% 85% 92% 95% 89% 90% 85% Somewhat important 10% 13% 8% 18% 14% 7% 4% 10% 9% 13% Not very important 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 2%

Totals 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,686) (3,311) (4,375) (1,592) (2,020) (2,556) (1,518) (4,444) (1,448) (1,178)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Very important 89% 89% 89% 89% 90% 90% 77% Somewhat important 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 10% 19% Not very important 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 4%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,686) (7,181) (6,134) (1,498) (4,869) (2,202) (588)

34 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

22B. Issue Importance — Jobs and wages For you personally, how do you rate the importance of these issues in the 2020 election...

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Very important 69% 66% 72% 63% 69% 75% 68% 64% 84% 72% Somewhat important 28% 31% 27% 33% 29% 23% 31% 34% 15% 25% Not very important 2% 3% 1% 3% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 3%

Totals 99% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,690) (3,308) (4,383) (1,596) (2,021) (2,567) (1,507) (4,440) (1,460) (1,177)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Very important 69% 70% 71% 63% 67% 73% 75% Somewhat important 28% 28% 27% 34% 31% 25% 21% Not very important 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1% 4%

Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% Weighted N (7,690) (7,183) (6,144) (1,492) (4,875) (2,205) (584)

35 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

22C. Issue Importance — Immigration For you personally, how do you rate the importance of these issues in the 2020 election...

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Very important 62% 55% 67% 64% 59% 59% 67% 60% 59% 70% Somewhat important 30% 34% 27% 28% 31% 32% 27% 32% 31% 22% Not very important 8% 11% 6% 8% 10% 9% 5% 8% 9% 8%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 99% 100% Weighted N (7,690) (3,306) (4,384) (1,592) (2,022) (2,562) (1,514) (4,439) (1,460) (1,174)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Very important 62% 62% 63% 56% 62% 59% 64% Somewhat important 30% 30% 29% 35% 29% 32% 29% Not very important 8% 8% 8% 9% 8% 8% 6%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% Weighted N (7,690) (7,185) (6,140) (1,496) (4,878) (2,201) (585)

36 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

22D. Issue Importance — Income inequality For you personally, how do you rate the importance of these issues in the 2020 election...

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Very important 71% 70% 73% 68% 74% 74% 67% 69% 80% 68% Somewhat important 25% 25% 25% 29% 22% 23% 29% 27% 17% 28% Not very important 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,696) (3,316) (4,380) (1,597) (2,025) (2,557) (1,517) (4,438) (1,460) (1,182)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Very important 71% 73% 72% 70% 76% 64% 62% Somewhat important 25% 24% 24% 27% 22% 30% 29% Not very important 4% 3% 4% 3% 2% 5% 9%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% Weighted N (7,696) (7,193) (6,148) (1,495) (4,876) (2,200) (587)

37 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

22E. Issue Importance — Guns For you personally, how do you rate the importance of these issues in the 2020 election...

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Very important 76% 67% 82% 70% 75% 76% 82% 72% 86% 81% Somewhat important 18% 24% 14% 21% 19% 19% 15% 22% 10% 14% Not very important 6% 9% 3% 9% 6% 5% 3% 6% 4% 5%

Totals 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,703) (3,316) (4,387) (1,601) (2,023) (2,562) (1,517) (4,453) (1,453) (1,181)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Very important 76% 76% 78% 64% 76% 73% 78% Somewhat important 18% 18% 17% 26% 18% 20% 16% Not very important 6% 6% 5% 10% 6% 6% 6%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% Weighted N (7,703) (7,198) (6,155) (1,494) (4,877) (2,204) (589)

38 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

22F. Issue Importance — Climate change For you personally, how do you rate the importance of these issues in the 2020 election...

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Very important 80% 80% 80% 81% 77% 78% 87% 85% 68% 76% Somewhat important 15% 15% 16% 15% 18% 17% 10% 12% 23% 20% Not very important 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 3% 3% 9% 4%

Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,696) (3,309) (4,387) (1,589) (2,026) (2,564) (1,517) (4,443) (1,459) (1,178)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Very important 80% 81% 79% 84% 87% 69% 62% Somewhat important 15% 15% 16% 14% 10% 24% 26% Not very important 4% 4% 5% 2% 2% 7% 12%

Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,696) (7,189) (6,144) (1,497) (4,878) (2,204) (587)

39 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

22G. Issue Importance — Social justice For you personally, how do you rate the importance of these issues in the 2020 election...

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Very important 67% 63% 71% 65% 65% 68% 72% 63% 80% 67% Somewhat important 28% 30% 26% 28% 29% 28% 26% 31% 17% 29% Not very important 5% 7% 3% 6% 6% 4% 2% 5% 3% 4%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,687) (3,314) (4,373) (1,591) (2,018) (2,562) (1,516) (4,449) (1,451) (1,172)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Very important 67% 69% 69% 62% 71% 59% 63% Somewhat important 28% 27% 27% 32% 25% 33% 32% Not very important 5% 4% 4% 6% 4% 7% 5%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% Weighted N (7,687) (7,186) (6,136) (1,497) (4,873) (2,199) (590)

40 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

22H. Issue Importance — Education For you personally, how do you rate the importance of these issues in the 2020 election...

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Very important 70% 65% 74% 67% 71% 71% 70% 65% 80% 73% Somewhat important 27% 31% 24% 30% 25% 26% 27% 31% 18% 24% Not very important 3% 4% 2% 2% 4% 3% 3% 4% 2% 3%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,691) (3,313) (4,378) (1,590) (2,019) (2,563) (1,519) (4,448) (1,459) (1,168)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Very important 70% 70% 71% 67% 70% 69% 72% Somewhat important 27% 27% 26% 29% 27% 27% 23% Not very important 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4% 5%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,691) (7,188) (6,141) (1,495) (4,876) (2,206) (583)

41 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

22I. Issue Importance — Abortion For you personally, how do you rate the importance of these issues in the 2020 election...

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Very important 55% 44% 63% 54% 52% 56% 57% 54% 55% 59% Somewhat important 31% 36% 27% 33% 31% 30% 29% 32% 28% 28% Not very important 14% 19% 10% 13% 17% 14% 14% 14% 17% 13%

Totals 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,689) (3,307) (4,382) (1,585) (2,022) (2,569) (1,512) (4,444) (1,457) (1,174)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Very important 55% 56% 57% 46% 58% 46% 56% Somewhat important 31% 31% 29% 37% 29% 36% 28% Not very important 14% 13% 14% 17% 13% 18% 16%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,689) (7,187) (6,146) (1,490) (4,873) (2,202) (588)

42 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

23. Favor Single-Payer Would you favor or oppose the U.S. creating a national, government-administered "Medicare for All" program, available to all individuals?

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Favor 57% 59% 55% 63% 63% 57% 42% 59% 47% 58% Oppose 6% 7% 6% 9% 7% 4% 7% 6% 9% 7% It depends on the costs and details 37% 33% 39% 28% 30% 39% 51% 35% 44% 34%

Totals 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% Weighted N (7,758) (3,337) (4,420) (1,622) (2,036) (2,579) (1,521) (4,460) (1,475) (1,204)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Favor 57% 58% 57% 58% 65% 40% 53% Oppose 6% 6% 7% 6% 4% 8% 19% It depends on the costs and details 37% 36% 36% 36% 31% 51% 28%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% Weighted N (7,758) (7,241) (6,194) (1,510) (4,894) (2,229) (601)

43 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

24. Candidate Health Care Position Is [ﬁrst choice candidate]’s position on healthcare:

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

The main reason you are backing him/her 6% 7% 5% 9% 10% 3% 2% 4% 7% 10% Just one of the many reasons you are backing him/her 70% 72% 69% 71% 69% 70% 73% 75% 62% 62% Not a reason you are backing him/her 11% 10% 11% 7% 9% 14% 11% 9% 11% 14% Haven’t heard about his/her healthcare position 13% 11% 15% 13% 12% 13% 14% 11% 19% 14%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 100% Weighted N (7,501) (3,241) (4,260) (1,526) (1,970) (2,513) (1,493) (4,342) (1,414) (1,145)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

The main reason you are backing him/her 6% 6% 7% 3% 4% 6% 24% Just one of the many reasons you are backing him/her 70% 72% 69% 75% 77% 60% 51% Not a reason you are backing him/her 11% 10% 11% 9% 9% 15% 9% Haven’t heard about his/her healthcare position 13% 12% 13% 12% 10% 19% 15%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 99% Weighted N (7,501) (7,100) (6,004) (1,446) (4,810) (2,116) (545)

44 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

25. Democrats Approach If you could choose, which should be Democrats’ approach to the 2020 election? Should their message be to try to...

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Return the country to the way it was before Donald Trump took ofﬁce 40% 37% 43% 30% 35% 45% 50% 36% 52% 43% Advance a more progressive agenda than the country had under Barack Obama 60% 63% 57% 70% 65% 55% 50% 64% 48% 57%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,712) (3,320) (4,392) (1,612) (2,027) (2,565) (1,508) (4,443) (1,455) (1,199)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Return the country to the way it was before Donald Trump took ofﬁce 40% 40% 43% 31% 33% 55% 45% Advance a more progressive agenda than the country had under Barack Obama 60% 60% 57% 69% 67% 45% 55%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,712) (7,205) (6,154) (1,503) (4,891) (2,194) (594)

45 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

26A. Campaigning for First Choice — Volunteer for their campaign Thinking about [ﬁrst choice candidate], how likely would you be to do each of the following to help him/her?

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Will deﬁnitely do 14% 14% 13% 17% 16% 11% 11% 11% 18% 17% Will probably do 24% 23% 25% 24% 25% 25% 23% 22% 30% 24% Will probably not do 41% 42% 41% 39% 39% 42% 46% 46% 32% 38% Will deﬁnitely not do 21% 21% 21% 20% 20% 22% 20% 20% 20% 21%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,419) (3,210) (4,209) (1,506) (1,952) (2,479) (1,481) (4,316) (1,397) (1,109)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Will deﬁnitely do 14% 14% 15% 7% 13% 10% 32% Will probably do 24% 25% 26% 19% 26% 21% 25% Will probably not do 41% 41% 40% 49% 44% 41% 23% Will deﬁnitely not do 21% 20% 19% 25% 17% 28% 20%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,419) (7,027) (5,934) (1,435) (4,795) (2,067) (538)

46 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

26B. Campaigning for First Choice — Donate money to their campaign or cause Thinking about [ﬁrst choice candidate], how likely would you be to do each of the following to help him/her?

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Will deﬁnitely do 25% 28% 24% 24% 25% 25% 29% 28% 20% 23% Will probably do 31% 34% 28% 30% 32% 30% 31% 30% 33% 32% Will probably not do 27% 23% 29% 32% 25% 26% 24% 26% 27% 26% Will deﬁnitely not do 17% 15% 18% 14% 18% 19% 16% 16% 20% 19%

Totals 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,429) (3,221) (4,208) (1,511) (1,948) (2,488) (1,481) (4,316) (1,390) (1,126)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Will deﬁnitely do 25% 26% 25% 26% 30% 16% 25% Will probably do 31% 31% 32% 27% 31% 29% 31% Will probably not do 27% 26% 26% 30% 26% 30% 24% Will deﬁnitely not do 17% 16% 17% 17% 13% 25% 20%

Totals 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,429) (7,039) (5,946) (1,431) (4,788) (2,076) (540)

47 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

26C. Campaigning for First Choice — Persuade friends or family to vote for him or her Thinking about [ﬁrst choice candidate], how likely would you be to do each of the following to help him/her?

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Will deﬁnitely do 35% 37% 34% 36% 36% 35% 35% 35% 39% 33% Will probably do 40% 40% 39% 42% 38% 39% 40% 40% 38% 43% Will probably not do 17% 15% 18% 18% 16% 17% 17% 18% 14% 15% Will deﬁnitely not do 8% 7% 8% 4% 9% 9% 7% 7% 9% 8%

Totals 100% 99% 99% 100% 99% 100% 99% 100% 100% 99% Weighted N (7,425) (3,211) (4,214) (1,505) (1,944) (2,499) (1,477) (4,315) (1,396) (1,119)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Will deﬁnitely do 35% 37% 37% 31% 38% 27% 41% Will probably do 40% 40% 39% 40% 39% 43% 32% Will probably not do 17% 16% 16% 21% 17% 18% 17% Will deﬁnitely not do 8% 7% 8% 8% 6% 12% 10%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,425) (7,034) (5,945) (1,429) (4,798) (2,069) (539)

48 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

26D. Campaigning for First Choice — Share, tweet or post about them on social media Thinking about [ﬁrst choice candidate], how likely would you be to do each of the following to help him/her?

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Will deﬁnitely do 29% 27% 31% 28% 34% 30% 23% 29% 28% 30% Will probably do 27% 28% 27% 34% 29% 23% 25% 27% 29% 28% Will probably not do 23% 24% 23% 23% 20% 25% 26% 24% 22% 20% Will deﬁnitely not do 20% 21% 19% 14% 17% 22% 26% 19% 21% 22%

Totals 99% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,431) (3,212) (4,219) (1,512) (1,952) (2,496) (1,471) (4,311) (1,396) (1,133)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Will deﬁnitely do 29% 30% 30% 26% 32% 19% 35% Will probably do 27% 28% 28% 25% 27% 28% 29% Will probably not do 23% 23% 23% 26% 24% 24% 16% Will deﬁnitely not do 20% 19% 19% 23% 17% 28% 20%

Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% Weighted N (7,431) (7,034) (5,942) (1,438) (4,792) (2,075) (539)

49 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

26E. Campaigning for First Choice — Attend a campaign event if it was held in your area Thinking about [ﬁrst choice candidate], how likely would you be to do each of the following to help him/her?

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Will deﬁnitely do 30% 29% 31% 32% 31% 31% 25% 29% 30% 32% Will probably do 35% 37% 34% 39% 35% 33% 36% 37% 33% 32% Will probably not do 23% 23% 22% 22% 21% 22% 26% 24% 23% 20% Will deﬁnitely not do 12% 11% 13% 7% 13% 14% 13% 10% 14% 15%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% Weighted N (7,429) (3,208) (4,221) (1,511) (1,952) (2,489) (1,476) (4,325) (1,388) (1,120)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Will deﬁnitely do 30% 31% 31% 24% 32% 22% 40% Will probably do 35% 35% 35% 37% 37% 33% 28% Will probably not do 23% 22% 22% 26% 22% 26% 15% Will deﬁnitely not do 12% 12% 12% 13% 9% 19% 16%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% Weighted N (7,429) (7,032) (5,935) (1,442) (4,794) (2,077) (540)

50 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

27. Follow Candidates Online Do you follow any of the candidates directly on any online platform?

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Yes 38% 41% 36% 51% 48% 33% 21% 41% 29% 41% No 62% 59% 64% 49% 52% 67% 79% 59% 71% 59%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,738) (3,325) (4,413) (1,613) (2,036) (2,574) (1,515) (4,459) (1,464) (1,196)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Yes 38% 40% 38% 38% 45% 24% 37% No 62% 60% 62% 62% 55% 76% 63%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,738) (7,230) (6,173) (1,511) (4,899) (2,220) (592)

51 CBS News Battleground Tracker Democrats in Early Primary/Caucus States

28. Post Candidate Information Do you yourself post messages, tweet, or share information about candidates on any online platform?

Gender Age Group Race/Ethnicity Total Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White Black Hispanic

Yes 35% 37% 33% 39% 40% 33% 27% 36% 32% 35% No 65% 63% 67% 61% 60% 67% 73% 64% 68% 65%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,688) (3,297) (4,391) (1,610) (2,019) (2,556) (1,503) (4,433) (1,461) (1,178)

Likely Voter Party ID Ideology Total Yes Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative

Yes 35% 36% 35% 32% 39% 23% 42% No 65% 64% 65% 68% 61% 77% 58%

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Weighted N (7,688) (7,180) (6,127) (1,509) (4,869) (2,203) (588)

52 HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED AND THE MARGIN OF ERROR CALCULATED

September 8, 2019

This CBS News survey is conducted by YouGov online between August 28 – September 4, 2019. Arepresentativesampleof16,525registeredvotersin18statesexpectedtoholdearlypri- maries and caucuses (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Min- nesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia) was selected. This sample includes 7,804 self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents. Respondents from the first wave fielded May 31 – June 12, 2019, and the second wave fielded July 9 – 18, 2019 were recontacted to participate. Of the 16,624 respondents in the first two waves, 6,723 were re-interviewed — a recontact rate of 40%. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 Presidential vote. Respondents were selected to be representative of registered voters within states. Smaller states were oversampled relative to larger ones, and the overall cross-state sample was then weighted to reflect the correct distribution of voters. Of the 16,525 respondents, 11,931 respondents were selected from YouGov’s online panel, 1,886 respondents were selected from Dynata’s online panel, 608 respondents were selected from Critical Mix’s online panel, 558 respondents were selected from Precision Sample’s online panel, and 1,542 respondents were selected from Lucid’s online panel. The weights range from 0.1 to 13.0, with a mean of 1 and a standard deviation of 1.15. The margin of error (a 95% confidence interval) for a sample percentage p based upon the entire sample is approximately 1.2%. It is calculated using the formula

1+CV2 pˆ 100 ± ⇥ s n where CV is the coecient of variation of the sample weights and n is the sample size used to compute the proportion. This is a measure of sampling error (the average of all estimates obtained using the same sample selection and weighting procedures repeatedly). The sample estimate should di↵er from its expected value by less than margin of error in 95 percent of all samples. It does not reﬂect non-sampling errors, including potential selection bias in panel participation or in response to a particular survey.

1 HOW THE MODEL WORKS

September 8, 2019

The CBS News/YouGov Delegate Model is based upon a survey conducted by YouGov between August 28 – September 4, 2019. A representative sample of 25,372 registered voters in 18 states expected to hold early primaries and caucuses (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia) was selected from YouGov’s online panel. Respondents who participated in the first wave, fielded May 31 – June 12, 2019, and the second wave, fielded July 9 – 18, 2019, were contacted to be reinterviewed in this wave. Of the 39,711 respondents in the previous two waves, 17,637 were re-interviewed — a recontact rate of 44%. The sample was selected based on age, gender, race, and education based upon voter registration lists and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey. Each respondent was asked whether they intend to vote in their state’s Democratic presidential primary or caucus. The model is an estimate of the number of delegates each candidate would receive based upon respondents’ current preferences. It is not a forecast; it is o↵ered as a way of demonstrating how candidate support translates into delegate allocations based on state and party rules, because the nomination contest is ultimately a contest for delegates to the convention. These are awarded at the state level (“at-large”) and also by district, which the model described below takes into account. In addition, voter preferences and the political landscape can and usually do change over time, and the model does not attempt to incorporate the e↵ects of any such changes or uncertainty going forward. CBS News and YouGov plan to conduct additional interviews and revise current estimates based on updated data on a regular basis. Once the survey is fielded, the model is run to produce delegate estimates for each candidate. There are three main steps:

1. Based upon survey responses, a multilevel regression model is estimated which relates individual demographics and district-level predictors (age, race, gender, education, 2016 election results) to current voting intentions. The model pools data across the 18 states in the sample, but includes e↵ects for each congressional district in the sample, or state senate districts in the case of Texas. The models are estimated using a technical procedure called “empirical Bayes” which avoids overfitting of district e↵ects using the patterns of correlation (with past vote) and variability found in the sample data. 2. Using the survey estimates from the first step, turnout and candidate preference are imputed onto voter file records in each of the 18 states. The model estimates probabilities of turnout and candidate preference, depending upon voters’ demographics and which congressional district they reside in. Because model estimates are subject to error, multiple imputations were made for each registered voter, yielding a total of 1,000 scenarios for simulation.

3. Finally, we simulate the number of delegates won by each candidate using estimated vote choices from the second step using the delegate allocation rules for each of the states, as of this time. The delegates for each state are allocated either by district or at large. In each simulation, following the actual party allocation rules, candidates with less than 15 percent of the vote in a district or at large are eliminated and delegates are allocated to the remaining candidates in proportion to their vote shares.

Based on these simulations, the expected number of delegates for each candidate is calculated. A95%conﬁdenceintervalforeachdelegateestimateisdeterminedbyeliminatingthetopand bottom 2.5% of each candidate’s simulated distribution of delegates. The conﬁdence intervals only apply to current delegate allocation estimates as presented here.

AllEarlyStates IA NV NH SC lower upper lower upper lower upper lower upper lower upper Biden 472 741 18 24 14 19 9 11 31 50 Warren 420 680 10 13 5 9 7 9 2 12 Sanders 142 426 10 13 10 13 5 6 0 14 O’Rourke 0 56 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Harris 0 101 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Klobuchar 0 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Buttigieg 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0