CNN 2020 NH Primary Poll February 9, 2020 SANDERS'S LEAD OVER BUTTIGIEG IN NH HOLDING STEADY; BIDEN AND WARREN TRAIL By: Sean P. McKinley, M.A. [email protected] Zachary S. Azem, M.A. 603-862-2226 Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. cola.unh.edu/unh-survey-center DURHAM, NH – With three days of campaigning le before the votes are counted in New Hampshire, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders maintains a slim lead over former South Bend (IN) Mayor Pete Bu gieg among likely Democra c voters. Former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachuse s Senator Elizabeth Warren con nue to trail, with Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, and entrepreneur Andrew Yang further back. Klobuchar has experienced a slight up ck in support since the last polling period and now sits in fi h place. Sanders con nues to hold a sizeable lead among self-described liberal likely Democra c voters while Bu gieg leads among moderates and conserva ves. These findings are based on the latest CNN 2020 New Hampshire Primary Poll*, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Seven hundred sixty-five (765) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed in English by landline and cellular telephone between February 5 and February 8, 2020. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.5 percent. Included in the sample were 384 likely 2020 Democra c Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 5.0 percent) and 227 likely 2020 Republican Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 6.5 percent). Trend points prior to July 2019 reflect results from the Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. 2020 Democra c Primary Fi y-three percent of likely Democra c primary voters say they have definitely decided whom they will support in the upcoming New Hampshire presiden al primary, largely unchanged compared to the period from February 4-7. Twenty-eight percent say they are leaning towards someone, while 19% say they are s ll trying to decide. Among likely Democra c primary voters, 57% of registered Democrats say they have definitely decided while slightly fewer voters registered as undeclared (48%) feel this way. Definitely Decided on Candidate - Democra c Primary Voters - October 2017 to February 5-8, 2020 100% 94% 91% 85% 87% 80% 77% 78% 60% 64% 57% 51% 49% 53% 40% 23% 31% 28% 20% 30% 20% 14% 19% 13% 21% 20% 10% 19% 8% 16% 5% 9% 0% 4% 5% 8% 5% Oct 2017 Feb 2018 Apr 2018 Aug 2018 Feb 2019 Apr 2019 Jul 2019 Oct 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 4-7 Feb 5-8 2020 2020 Definitely Decided Leaning Towards Someone Still Trying To Decide * We ask that this copyrighted informa on be referred to as the CNN 2020 New Hampshire Primary Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. If the 2020 New Hampshire Democra c primary were held today, 28% of likely primary voters say they would vote for Sanders, 21% would vote for Bu gieg, 12% would vote for Biden, and 9% would vote for Warren. Six percent say they would vote for Klobuchar, 5% would vote for Gabbard, 4% would vote for Yang, 2% would vote for businessman Tom Steyer, 1% would vote for former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and 1% would vote for another candidate. Eleven percent of likely Democra c primary voters say they are undecided. Preferred Democra c 2020 Presiden al Nomina on Candidate - February 5-8, 2020 Bernie Sanders 28% Pete Buttigieg 21% Joe Biden 12% Elizabeth Warren 9% Amy Klobuchar 6% Tulsi Gabbard 5% Andrew Yang 4% Tom Steyer 2% Michael Bloomberg 1% Other 1% Undecided 11% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Preferred Democra c 2020 Presiden al Nomina on Candidate - October 2017 to February 5-8, 2020 40% Bernie Sanders 35% Pete Buttigieg 35% Joe Biden 31% 31% 30% 30% Elizabeth Warren 30% 28% Tulsi Gabbard 26% 28% 29% Amy Klobuchar 24% 25% 25% Andrew Yang 24% 24% 21% 21% Tom Steyer 19% 19% 21% 20% Michael Bloomberg 22% 18% 18% Michael Bennet 19% 16% 15% 14% 15% Deval Patrick 15% 17% 15% Undecided 13% 11% 15% 10% 12% 12% 12% 12% 10% 10% 11% 12% 10% 10% 9% 7% 9% 6% 9% 6% 8% 6% 5% 5% 4% 2% 4% 1% 3% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1%1% 2% 1% 1% 0%0% 0% 0% 0 0 8 9 0 8 9 8 9 7 9 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 l 7 8 r r t t b b n g - - u c c p p e e a u 4 5 J J O O A A F F A b b e e F F Because Michael Bloomberg is not running in the New Hampshire primary, his name was not included in the list of candidates who were read aloud. However, responses from those who volunteered Bloomberg as their choice are included. Michael Bennet and Deval Patrick were included in the read list of candidates but did not receive support from any respondents. Support for Klobuchar has increased very slightly compared to the period from February 4-7, but overall, responses to this ques on are largely unchanged. Change in Preferred Democra c Candidate from February 4-7 to February 5-8, 2020 Amy Klobuchar 0.9% Bernie Sanders 0.6% Joe Biden 0.4% Andrew Yang 0.4% Tulsi Gabbard -0.2% Pete Buttigieg -0.3% Michael Bloomberg -0.5% Elizabeth Warren -0.5% Tom Steyer -0.6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Among likely Democra c voters who are self-described liberals, 46% support Sanders, 20% support Bu gieg, 13% support Warren, 5% support Biden, and 4% support Klobuchar. Among self-described moderates and conserva ves, 23% support Bu gieg, 16% support Biden, 15% support Sanders, and 8% each support Gabbard or Klobuchar. Bu gieg remains the favorite candidate of this group. Preferred Democra c Candidate by Ideology - February 5-8, 2020 Bernie Sanders 46% (-4%) Pete Buttigieg 20% (1%) Elizabeth Warren 13% (-2%) Joe Biden 5% (0%) Liberal Amy Klobuchar 4% (2%) Andrew Yang 1% (0%) Tulsi Gabbard 1% (1%) Michael Bloomberg 0% (0%) Tom Steyer 0% (0%) Pete Buttigieg 23% (-1%) Joe Biden 16% (1%) Bernie Sanders 15% (2%) Tulsi Gabbard 8% (0%) Moderate or Amy Klobuchar 8% (1%) Conservative Andrew Yang 5% (1%) Elizabeth Warren 5% (0%) Tom Steyer 4% (-1%) Michael Bloomberg 2% (-1%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% Support for Sanders con nues to be highly concentrated among younger voters, par cularly female voters under the age of thirty-five, 64% of whom support Sanders. Sanders also enjoys robust support and leads the field among men aged thirty-five to forty-nine. Support for Sanders is slightly higher compared to the period from February 4-7 among women under thirty-five (+5) and men aged thirty-five to forty-nine (+5) while support among men under thirty-five has slightly decreased (-5). Bu gieg's support con nues to be more balanced; he leads the field among women aged fi y to sixty-four and is virtually ed among all voters aged sixty-five and older but remains a very distant second to Sanders among men and par cularly women under thirty-five and has lost ground among women sixty-five and older. Support for Biden (+5) has slightly increased compared to the period from February 4-7 among men under thirty-five, but Biden's support remains largely concentrated among men and women sixty-five and older. Klobuchar is now third among women between fi y and sixty-four and women sixty-five and older, having increased her share of the vote among the la er group by 6 percentage points since the February 4-7 period. Preferred Democra c Candidate by Gender and Age - February 5-8, 2020 Women Men Bernie Sanders 64% (5%) 39% (-5%) Pete Buttigieg 11% (1%) 18% (-3%) 18 to 34 Elizabeth Warren 11% (-2%) 9% (0%) Joe Biden 5% (-6%) 15% (5%) Bernie Sanders 28% (0%) 44% (5%) Pete Buttigieg 24% (-1%) 23% (2%) 35 to 49 Elizabeth Warren 17% (0%) 7% (-4%) Joe Biden 7% (1%) 4% (-1%) Amy Klobuchar 7% (1%) Pete Buttigieg 25% (3%) 22% (4%) Bernie Sanders 13% (1%) 24% (1%) 50 to 64 Amy Klobuchar 11% (2%) 7% (-1%) Joe Biden 9% (0%) 10% (0%) Elizabeth Warren 6% (0%) 5% (1%) Joe Biden 23% (1%) 24% (5%) Pete Buttigieg 21% (-8%) 24% (0%) 65 and older Bernie Sanders 12% (-1%) 8% (2%) Amy Klobuchar 14% (6%) 5% (-3%) Elizabeth Warren 7% (0%) 9% (0%) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Sanders con nues to lead Bu gieg among men and women without a college degree, though the gap has narrowed slightly compared to the period from February 4-7 among men without a college degree. Biden has gained slightly (+4) among men without a college degree, but has declined by the same amount among women with a college degree, while Klobuchar (+4) has seen her share of the vote among women with a college degree increase. Preferred Democra c Candidate by Educa on and Gender - February 5-8, 2020 Women Men No College Bernie Sanders 32% (2%) 31% (-3%) Degree Pete Buttigieg 18% (-1%) 21% (2%) Joe Biden 14% (0%) 13% (4%) Elizabeth Warren 7% (0%) 7% (0%) Amy Klobuchar 7% (1%) 0% (-1%) College Pete Buttigieg 25% (-1%) 22% (-1%) Degree or Bernie Sanders 19% (1%) 28% (2%) More Elizabeth Warren 15% (-1%) 9% (-2%) Joe Biden 7% (-4%) 12% (0%) Amy Klobuchar 11% (4%) 7% (1%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Warren con nues to be the candidate with the most support if the respondent's preferred candidate were not on the ballot.