Ipsos Poll Conducted for Thomson Reuters Core Political Data

AUGUST 7, 2019

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for date

August 1-5, 2019

For the survey, a sample of including ages

2,129 1,795 807 772 140 Registered Democratic Republican Independent 18+ Americans Voters Registered Registered Registered Voters Voters Voters were interviewed online

The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval.

In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points

2.4 2.6 3.9 4.0 9.4

All Adults All Registered Democratic Republican Independent Voters Registered Voters Registered Voters Registered Voters

For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

• The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by: – Gender – Age – Education – Ethnicity – Region

• Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. • All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. • Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent. • Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.

• To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit: http://polling.reuters.com/

Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

10% 12% 9% 6% 31% 33% All Democratic Right Direction All Adults Registered Registered Voters Voters Wrong Track 57% 58% 84%

Don’t know 10% 16% 18%

Republican 27% Independent Registered Registered Voters 64% Voters

66%

In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today? Democratic Republican Independent All Adults All Registered Voters Registered Voters Registered Voters Registered Voters Economy generally 10% 9% 11% 8% 10% Unemployment / lack of jobs 5% 4% 5% 2% 6% War / foreign conflicts 3% 3% 4% 2% 3% Immigration 20% 22% 8% 41% 10% Terrorism / terrorist attacks 7% 7% 4% 9% 8% Healthcare 18% 19% 25% 12% 24% Energy issues 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% Morality 7% 7% 6% 8% 8% Education 5% 4% 5% 4% 6% Crime 5% 5% 6% 4% 5% Environment 7% 7% 12% 2% 5% Other 9% 10% 12% 6% 13% Don’t know 4% 2% 1% 1% 2%

Economy generally In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today? Unemployment / jobs 45% Healthcare 40% Terrorism

35% Immigration

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President? Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected “approve” or “disapprove”) Q2b. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove? (Asked of those who selected “don’t know”)

Democratic Republican Independent All Adults Registered Voters Registered Voters Registered Voters Registered Voters Strongly approve 22% 24% 3% 51% 8% Somewhat approve 18% 18% 5% 33% 20% Lean towards approve 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% Lean towards disapprove 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% Somewhat disapprove 10% 9% 11% 6% 14% Strongly disapprove 42% 44% 78% 5% 47% Not sure 5% 3% 2% 1% 6% TOTAL APPROVE 41% 43% 9% 86% 31% TOTAL DISAPPROVE 54% 54% 90% 12% 63%

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

80% 70% 60% 54% 50% 41% 40% 30% 20% 10%

Feb3-7, 2017

Dec20171-5,

Nov 3-7, Nov 2017

May20175-9, May20184-8, May20196-7,

June 2-6,June 2017 1-5,June 2018

April5-9, 2019

Oct 6-10, Oct 2017

Feb9-13,2018

Oct Oct 20-24,2017

Sept 8-12, Sept 2017 5-11, Sept 2018

Jan20-24, 2017 Jan12-16, 2018 Jan26-30, 2018

April6-10, 2018

Feb17-21, 2017

July14-18, 2017 July13-17, 2018 July27-31, 2018 July15-16, 2019 July29-30, 2019

Dec15-19, 2017

Aug11-15, 2017 Aug25-29, 2017

Sept19-25,2018

March3-7, 2017

Nov 17-21, Nov 2017

May19-23, 2017 May18-22, 2018 May17-20, 2019

Sept 22-26, Sept 2017

June 15-19,June2018 June 16-20,June 2017 17-18,June 2019

April21-25, 2017 April17-23, 2019

January2019 2-8,

March9-13, 2018

October3-9, 2018

August8-14,2018

April20 -24, 2018

Jan30-Feb 20195,

March March - 6 2019 12,

March17-21, 2017 March23-27, 2018

July28- Aug 1,2017

August22-28,2018

March20 -26, 2019

June 30-JulyJune 20174, 28-JulyJune 20182, 28-JulyJune 20192,

January16-22, 2019

October17-23, 2018

May29-June 5, 2019

February23-27, 2018 February20-26, 2019

December 5-11, 2018

November2018 7-13,

December 19-25,2018

March March 31-April 4, 2017

November 21-27, 2018 Dec 29, 2017Jan - 2, 2018

© 2019 Ipsos 9 FAMILIARITY & FAVORABILITY AMONG DEMOCRATIC REGISTERED VOTERS 2020 Democratic Presidential Candidates How familiar are you with the following public figures, taking into account all the ways you may have heard about them? Would you say you are generally favorable or unfavorable towards these public figures? (Asked only of those aware of the individual people in the previous question) 90% Familiarity Favorability 82% 88% 71% 80% 82% 71% 71% 72% 71% 58% 69% 64% 63% 61% 61% 48% 62% 54% 52% 50% 55% 50% 52% 49% 52% 49% 51% 39% 46% 42% 45% 34% 37% 38% 29% 26% 25% 24% 26% 21% 19% 20% 22% 20% 9% 14% 13% FAMILIARITY AMONG DEMOCRATIC REGISTERED VOTERS Familiarity Trend How familiar are you with the following public figures, taking into account all the ways you may have heard about them?

100% Joe Biden Kamala Harris Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders Pete Buttigieg 91% 89% 90% 90% 89% 88% 89% 88% 88% 80%

72% 70% 70% 71% 67% 63% 63% 64% 60% 58%

50% 46% 43% 44% 40% 41%

30% May 2019 June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 FAVORABILITY AMONG DEMOCRATIC REGISTERED VOTERS Favorability Trend Would you say you are generally favorable or unfavorable towards these public figures? (Asked only of those aware of the individual people in the previous question)

95% Joe Biden Kamala Harris Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders Pete Buttigieg

90% 89% 87%

85% 82% 82% 82% 83% 83% 81% 81%82% 82% 80% 79% 80% 78% 79%

75% 76%

72% 70% 70% 71%

65% May 2019 June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 FAMILIARITY & FAVORABILITY AMONG ALL AMERICANS 2020 Democratic Presidential Candidates How familiar are you with the following public figures, taking into account all the ways you may have heard about them? Would you say you are generally favorable or unfavorable towards these public figures? (Asked only of those aware of the individual people in the previous question) Familiarity Favorability 79% 77%

58% 59% 48% 49% 52% 54% 52% 50% 49% 49% 46% 50% 42% 46% 45% 45% 44% 34% 40% 44% 43% 45% 41% 44% 43% 42% 39% 40% 40% 37% 31% 33% 30% 27% 22% 18% 24% 23% 19% 17% 17% 20% 18% 18% 9% 12% 11% 12% FAMILIARITY AMONG ALL AMERICANS Familiarity Trend How familiar are you with the following public figures, taking into account all the ways you may have heard about them?

90% Joe Biden Kamala Harris Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders Pete Buttigieg 82% 80% 80% 79% 80% 80% 78% 78% 77% 70%

60% 60% 58% 59% 59%

50% 50% 47% 48% 45% 40%

32% 34% 30% 31% 32%

20% May 2019 June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 FAVORABILITY AMONG ALL AMERICANS Favorability Trend Would you say you are generally favorable or unfavorable towards these public figures? (Asked only of those aware of the individual people in the previous question)

70% Joe Biden Kamala Harris Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders Pete Buttigieg

65%

62% 60% 59% 58% 57% 55% 55% 54% 54% 54% 52% 53% 51% 51% 52% 50% 50% 50% 49% 49% 47% 45%

40% May 2019 June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 DEMOCRATIC REGISTERED VOTERS 2020 Democratic Primary Horserace If the 2020 Democratic presidential primary election were held today, and you had to choose from the list of candidates below, for whom would you vote?

28% 23%

12% 10% 7% 5% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% DEMOCRATIC REGISTERED VOTERS 2020 Democratic Primary Horserace - Trend If the 2020 Democratic presidential primary election were held today, and you had to choose from the list of candidates below, for whom would you vote?

40% Joe Biden Kamala Harris Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders Pete Buttigieg

35% 36% 36%

30% 28% 28% 25% 23% 20% 18% 15% 15% 16% 13% 12% 10% 11% 9%8% 8% 7% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5%

0% May 2019 June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 DEMOCRATIC, INDEPENDENT, & OTHER REGISTERED VOTERS 2020 Democratic Primary Horserace If the 2020 Democratic presidential primary election were held today, and you had to choose from the list of candidates below, for whom would you vote?

25% 20% 15% 10% 7% 5% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% DEMOCRATIC, INDEPENDENT, & OTHER REGISTERED VOTERS 2020 Democratic Primary Horserace - Trend If the 2020 Democratic presidential primary election were held today, and you had to choose from the list of candidates below, for whom would you vote?

35% Joe Biden Kamala Harris Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders Pete Buttigieg

31% 31% 30%

25% 24% 25%

20% 20% 17% 15% 14% 14% 11% 10% 9% 11% 10% 7% 6% 6% 7% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5%

0% May 2019 June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 DEMOCRATIC REGISTERED VOTERS 2020 Democratic Primary Horserace – Second Choice If your first choice dropped out of the race or you had to choose someone to vote for, who would you vote for in the upcoming presidential primary election?

19% 19% 17%

10% 11% 7% 5% 5% 2% 2% 2%

Joe Biden Kamala Harris Elizabeth Bernie Sanders Beto O'Rourke Cory Booker Julian Castro Amy Klobuchar Kirsten Pete Buttigieg Other Warren Gillibrand DEMOCRATIC REGISTERED VOTERS 2020 Democratic Primary Horserace – Second Choice Trend If your first choice dropped out of the race or you had to choose someone to vote for, who would you vote for in the upcoming presidential primary election?

25% Joe Biden Kamala Harris Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders Beto O'Rourke Pete Buttigieg

19% 20% 19% 20% 19% 17% 17% 17% 16% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 14% 15% 10% 12% 10% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5%

0% May 2019 June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 DEMOCRATIC, INDEPENDENT, & OTHER REGISTERED VOTERS 2020 Democratic Primary Horserace – Second Choice If your first choice dropped out of the race or you had to choose someone to vote for, who would you vote for in the upcoming presidential primary election?

19% 19% 16% 16%

9% 6% 5% 5% 2% 2% 2%

Joe Biden Kamala Harris Elizabeth Bernie Sanders Beto O'Rourke Cory Booker Julian Castro Amy Klobuchar Kirsten Pete Buttigieg Other Warren Gillibrand DEMOCRATIC, INDEPENDENT, & OTHER REGISTERED VOTERS 2020 Democratic Primary Horserace – Second Choice Trend If your first choice dropped out of the race or you had to choose someone to vote for, who would you vote for in the upcoming presidential primary election?

20% Joe Biden Kamala Harris Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders Pete Buttigieg 19% 19% 18% 16% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14% 16% 12% 13% 14% 12% 11% 12% 10% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 6% 6% 4% 4%

0% May 2019 June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 ALL ADULT AMERICANS Political Identity With which political party do you most identify?

Strong Democrat 17% Moderate Democrat 18% Lean Democrat 8% Lean Republican 7% Moderate Republican 16% Strong Republican 15% Independent 9% Other/Don't know/Refused 10% Democrat 35% Party ID Republican 31% Democrat 43% Party ID w/ Lean Republican 39% Independent 9% Other/None/Don't know 10%

The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter θ\, i.E., Y|θ~bin(n,θ), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (푌ത) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion θ. This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the bayesian and the classical framework. The bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution.

The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior 휃 distribution is also a beta distribution (π( )~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters. 푦

Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base. 휃 There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π ( ). Since we want only one measure of 푦 precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal 1 distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately: 푌ഥ ∓ 푛

FOR THIS POLL The Bayesian credibility interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2 Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below:

CREDIBILITY SAMPLE SIZE INTERVALS 2,000 2.5 1,500 2.9 1,000 3.5 Ipsos does not publish data 750 4.1 for base sizes (sample sizes) below 100. 500 5.0 350 6.0 200 7.9 100 11.2

1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003 2 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.

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