Iowa Voter Survey Potential Democratic Caucus Attendees January 19-21, 2020

Overview

This report contains the results of a Civiqs survey of 590 potential Iowa Democratic Caucus attendees from January 19-21, 2020. The survey was conducted online, among selected members of the Civiqs research panel. Sampled individuals were emailed by Civiqs and responded using a personalized link to the survey at civiqs.com. Respondents who answered that they "definitely will not attend" the Iowa Democratic Caucus, or replied "I am not a Democrat" in Question 1 were screened out of the rest of the survey. The survey results are weighted by age, race, gender, education, party identification, and congressional district to be representative of the population of potential Iowa Democratic Caucus attendees. Demographic data, including self-reported party identification, was collected in previous Civiqs surveys. The general design effect due to weighting is 1.4. The survey has a margin of error of ±4.8% at the 95% confidence level, accounting for the design effect. All survey results in this report are reported as percentages.

Contact

For more information, please contact Drew Linzer ([email protected]), Director, Civiqs. More information about Civiqs can be found online at civiqs.com/methodology. Topline Results

1. How likely is it that you will attend the Iowa Democratic Caucuses in February of 2020?

Definitely will attend 68% Probably will attend 19% Probably will not attend 14%

2. If the Democratic Caucuses were held today, which one of the following candidates would be your first choice?

Bernie Sanders 24% Pete Buttigieg 19% Elizabeth Warren 19% Joe Biden 17% Amy Klobuchar 6% Andrew Yang 5% Tom Steyer 3% Tulsi Gabbard 2% Michael Bennet 0% John Delaney 0% Unsure 5%

3. If the Democratic Caucuses were held today, which one of the following candidates would be your second choice?

Bernie Sanders 18% Elizabeth Warren 18% Joe Biden 16% Pete Buttigieg 12% Amy Klobuchar 9% Andrew Yang 6% Tom Steyer 5% Tulsi Gabbard 4% Michael Bennet 1% Deval Patrick 0% John Delaney 0% Unsure 11%

Iowa Democratic Caucusgoers · January 19-21, 2020 · Page 2 / 12 4. Is there a candidate you would never consider voting for? If you have more than one, pick your least favorite candidate.

Tulsi Gabbard 30% Joe Biden 14% Bernie Sanders 13% Elizabeth Warren 7% Tom Steyer 5% John Delaney 3% Pete Buttigieg 3% Deval Patrick 2% Amy Klobuchar 2% Andrew Yang 1% Michael Bennet 1% I would vote for any of these candidates 11% Unsure 8%

5. Is your mind made up to support your first choice candidate in the Democratic Caucus, or could you still be persuaded to support another candidate?

My mind is made up 55% I could be persuaded to change my mind 26% I am still deciding between a few candidates 15% Unsure 4%

Iowa Democratic Caucusgoers · January 19-21, 2020 · Page 3 / 12 Crosstabs

1. How likely is it that you will attend the Iowa Democratic Caucuses in February of 2020?

Total Democrat Independent Female Male 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Definitely will attend 68% 71% 61% 65% 72% 80% 59% 66% 72% Probably will attend 19% 16% 24% 22% 15% 13% 28% 15% 15% Probably will not attend 14% 13% 16% 13% 13% 7% 13% 19% 13%

Total White Non-White Non-College College grad Postgrad Definitely will attend 68% 68% 56% 61% 73% 86% Probably will attend 19% 17% 38% 21% 17% 8% Probably will not attend 14% 15% 6% 17% 10% 5%

Total Caucus Vote: Sanders Buttigieg Warren Biden Other Unsure Definitely will attend 68% 75% 67% 79% 62% 55% 51% Probably will attend 19% 20% 17% 10% 20% 25% 26% Probably will not attend 14% 5% 16% 12% 17% 20% 24%

Total Turnout: Definitely Probably will Probably not Definitely will attend 68% 100% 0% 0% Probably will attend 19% 0% 100% 0% Probably will not attend 14% 0% 0% 100%

Total Mind made up Persuadable Still deciding Definitely will attend 68% 76% 58% 60% Probably will attend 19% 15% 24% 18% Probably will not attend 14% 9% 17% 21%

Iowa Democratic Caucusgoers · January 19-21, 2020 · Page 4 / 12 2. If the Democratic Caucuses were held today, which one of the following candidates would be your first choice?

Total Democrat Independent Female Male 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Bernie Sanders 24% 23% 28% 18% 33% 39% 29% 21% 9% Pete Buttigieg 19% 20% 16% 18% 21% 19% 18% 21% 18% Elizabeth Warren 19% 22% 12% 20% 16% 23% 18% 18% 19% Joe Biden 17% 15% 21% 21% 12% 5% 17% 15% 27% Amy Klobuchar 6% 7% 5% 6% 7% 3% 1% 8% 11% Andrew Yang 5% 4% 8% 8% 3% 7% 11% 3% 2% Tom Steyer 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 1% 2% 3% 5% Tulsi Gabbard 2% 1% 3% 1% 2% 0% 0% 4% 2% Michael Bennet 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% John Delaney 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Unsure 5% 5% 5% 6% 3% 1% 3% 7% 6%

Total White Non-White Non-College College grad Postgrad Bernie Sanders 24% 24% 30% 28% 20% 13% Pete Buttigieg 19% 20% 6% 19% 20% 15% Elizabeth Warren 19% 18% 23% 14% 24% 31% Joe Biden 17% 17% 21% 17% 16% 18% Amy Klobuchar 6% 7% 0% 6% 3% 11% Andrew Yang 5% 5% 7% 6% 5% 2% Tom Steyer 3% 3% 0% 2% 4% 3% Tulsi Gabbard 2% 1% 4% 2% 1% 1% Michael Bennet 0% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% John Delaney 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Unsure 5% 5% 7% 5% 5% 4%

Total Caucus Vote: Sanders Buttigieg Warren Biden Other Unsure Bernie Sanders 24% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Pete Buttigieg 19% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% Elizabeth Warren 19% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% Joe Biden 17% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% Amy Klobuchar 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 37% 0% Andrew Yang 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 0% Tom Steyer 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 0% Tulsi Gabbard 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% 0% Michael Bennet 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% John Delaney 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% Unsure 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Total Turnout: Definitely Probably will Probably not Bernie Sanders 24% 27% 26% 9% Pete Buttigieg 19% 19% 17% 22% Elizabeth Warren 19% 22% 9% 16% Joe Biden 17% 15% 18% 21% Amy Klobuchar 6% 6% 5% 10% Andrew Yang 5% 4% 12% 5% Tom Steyer 3% 2% 3% 5% Tulsi Gabbard 2% 1% 2% 3% Michael Bennet 0% 0% 1% 0% John Delaney 0% 0% 0% 0% Unsure 5% 4% 7% 8%

Iowa Democratic Caucusgoers · January 19-21, 2020 · Page 5 / 12 Total Mind made up Persuadable Still deciding Bernie Sanders 24% 31% 17% 18% Pete Buttigieg 19% 20% 22% 11% Elizabeth Warren 19% 20% 17% 17% Joe Biden 17% 16% 20% 19% Amy Klobuchar 6% 5% 8% 7% Andrew Yang 5% 6% 6% 6% Tom Steyer 3% 0% 5% 6% Tulsi Gabbard 2% 2% 2% 0% Michael Bennet 0% 0% 1% 0% John Delaney 0% 0% 1% 0% Unsure 5% 0% 2% 18%

Iowa Democratic Caucusgoers · January 19-21, 2020 · Page 6 / 12 3. If the Democratic Caucuses were held today, which one of the following candidates would be your second choice?

Total Democrat Independent Female Male 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Bernie Sanders 18% 19% 16% 19% 17% 23% 20% 16% 18% Elizabeth Warren 18% 16% 21% 18% 18% 23% 23% 14% 13% Joe Biden 16% 17% 13% 16% 16% 16% 18% 15% 15% Pete Buttigieg 12% 13% 11% 13% 11% 5% 14% 13% 15% Amy Klobuchar 9% 11% 5% 11% 7% 2% 8% 12% 14% Andrew Yang 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 7% 4% 6% 4% Tom Steyer 5% 4% 7% 2% 6% 0% 4% 5% 6% Tulsi Gabbard 4% 3% 6% 1% 8% 12% 2% 2% 1% Michael Bennet 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% Deval Patrick 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% John Delaney 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Unsure 11% 10% 14% 12% 10% 10% 7% 15% 13%

Total White Non-White Non-College College grad Postgrad Bernie Sanders 18% 17% 22% 17% 22% 14% Elizabeth Warren 18% 17% 33% 17% 19% 19% Joe Biden 16% 16% 9% 17% 14% 11% Pete Buttigieg 12% 13% 4% 12% 11% 16% Amy Klobuchar 9% 10% 5% 7% 9% 21% Andrew Yang 6% 6% 0% 6% 6% 3% Tom Steyer 5% 4% 9% 5% 6% 1% Tulsi Gabbard 4% 3% 6% 5% 1% 0% Michael Bennet 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% Deval Patrick 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% John Delaney 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Unsure 11% 11% 12% 11% 11% 13%

Total Caucus Vote: Sanders Buttigieg Warren Biden Other Unsure Bernie Sanders 18% 7% 13% 35% 19% 24% 5% Elizabeth Warren 18% 39% 11% 4% 17% 18% 0% Joe Biden 16% 5% 39% 13% 6% 22% 5% Pete Buttigieg 12% 9% 3% 16% 26% 12% 0% Amy Klobuchar 9% 1% 15% 17% 15% 4% 0% Andrew Yang 6% 11% 6% 4% 4% 3% 0% Tom Steyer 5% 7% 7% 0% 6% 3% 4% Tulsi Gabbard 4% 13% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% Michael Bennet 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 0% Deval Patrick 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% John Delaney 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Unsure 11% 8% 6% 11% 8% 5% 87%

Total Turnout: Definitely Probably will Probably not Bernie Sanders 18% 19% 15% 19% Elizabeth Warren 18% 18% 26% 8% Joe Biden 16% 14% 17% 23% Pete Buttigieg 12% 10% 13% 20% Amy Klobuchar 9% 11% 5% 10% Andrew Yang 6% 7% 6% 1% Tom Steyer 5% 3% 7% 8% Tulsi Gabbard 4% 5% 1% 1%

Iowa Democratic Caucusgoers · January 19-21, 2020 · Page 7 / 12 Michael Bennet 1% 1% 0% 0% Deval Patrick 0% 0% 0% 2% John Delaney 0% 0% 0% 0% Unsure 11% 13% 9% 9%

Total Mind made up Persuadable Still deciding Bernie Sanders 18% 18% 18% 22% Elizabeth Warren 18% 20% 19% 11% Joe Biden 16% 12% 24% 12% Pete Buttigieg 12% 8% 18% 19% Amy Klobuchar 9% 11% 6% 9% Andrew Yang 6% 8% 2% 3% Tom Steyer 5% 4% 5% 6% Tulsi Gabbard 4% 6% 2% 1% Michael Bennet 1% 1% 0% 1% Deval Patrick 0% 0% 1% 0% John Delaney 0% 0% 0% 1% Unsure 11% 11% 4% 15%

Iowa Democratic Caucusgoers · January 19-21, 2020 · Page 8 / 12 4. Is there a candidate you would never consider voting for? If you have more than one, pick your least favorite candidate.

Total Democrat Independent Female Male 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Tulsi Gabbard 30% 34% 22% 33% 25% 28% 30% 31% 32% Joe Biden 14% 9% 23% 12% 16% 25% 18% 10% 6% Bernie Sanders 13% 14% 10% 13% 12% 7% 9% 15% 17% Elizabeth Warren 7% 5% 12% 7% 8% 10% 8% 4% 9% Tom Steyer 5% 4% 7% 3% 8% 10% 7% 3% 1% John Delaney 3% 2% 4% 3% 3% 3% 0% 4% 5% Pete Buttigieg 3% 3% 2% 2% 4% 3% 2% 4% 0% Deval Patrick 2% 1% 3% 2% 3% 0% 2% 4% 2% Amy Klobuchar 2% 3% 0% 3% 1% 4% 2% 2% 1% Andrew Yang 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% Michael Bennet 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% Would vote for any 11% 13% 5% 11% 11% 3% 10% 15% 13% Unsure 8% 7% 10% 9% 7% 6% 8% 6% 11%

Total White Non-White Non-College College grad Postgrad Tulsi Gabbard 30% 30% 33% 27% 34% 39% Joe Biden 14% 14% 14% 15% 11% 14% Bernie Sanders 13% 13% 7% 13% 10% 18% Elizabeth Warren 7% 7% 12% 9% 5% 3% Tom Steyer 5% 5% 12% 7% 3% 1% John Delaney 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 1% Pete Buttigieg 3% 3% 4% 3% 4% 2% Deval Patrick 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% Amy Klobuchar 2% 2% 3% 3% 1% 1% Andrew Yang 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 2% Michael Bennet 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Would vote for any 11% 12% 0% 9% 16% 11% Unsure 8% 8% 10% 8% 10% 4%

Total Caucus Vote: Sanders Buttigieg Warren Biden Other Unsure Tulsi Gabbard 30% 15% 30% 49% 34% 25% 38% Joe Biden 14% 38% 6% 6% 2% 12% 0% Bernie Sanders 13% 0% 20% 4% 25% 18% 20% Elizabeth Warren 7% 9% 9% 0% 6% 9% 18% Tom Steyer 5% 11% 3% 7% 2% 1% 0% John Delaney 3% 2% 2% 4% 5% 1% 0% Pete Buttigieg 3% 6% 0% 3% 1% 3% 2% Deval Patrick 2% 1% 4% 0% 3% 4% 0% Amy Klobuchar 2% 4% 1% 0% 0% 5% 0% Andrew Yang 1% 3% 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% Michael Bennet 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 3% Would vote for any 11% 7% 8% 18% 10% 14% 10% Unsure 8% 2% 12% 8% 10% 9% 9%

Total Turnout: Definitely Probably will Probably not Tulsi Gabbard 30% 31% 29% 28% Joe Biden 14% 14% 18% 7% Bernie Sanders 13% 13% 11% 15% Elizabeth Warren 7% 6% 10% 11% Tom Steyer 5% 6% 6% 0%

Iowa Democratic Caucusgoers · January 19-21, 2020 · Page 9 / 12 John Delaney 3% 3% 4% 0% Pete Buttigieg 3% 4% 0% 2% Deval Patrick 2% 2% 1% 3% Amy Klobuchar 2% 1% 3% 6% Andrew Yang 1% 2% 1% 1% Michael Bennet 1% 1% 1% 1% Would vote for any 11% 12% 8% 10% Unsure 8% 6% 9% 16%

Total Mind made up Persuadable Still deciding Tulsi Gabbard 30% 27% 37% 33% Joe Biden 14% 20% 8% 2% Bernie Sanders 13% 14% 9% 14% Elizabeth Warren 7% 8% 7% 3% Tom Steyer 5% 5% 3% 11% John Delaney 3% 2% 3% 6% Pete Buttigieg 3% 4% 1% 2% Deval Patrick 2% 2% 2% 1% Amy Klobuchar 2% 3% 2% 0% Andrew Yang 1% 2% 2% 0% Michael Bennet 1% 1% 1% 1% Would vote for any 11% 7% 16% 20% Unsure 8% 5% 10% 8%

Iowa Democratic Caucusgoers · January 19-21, 2020 · Page 10 / 12 5. Is your mind made up to support your first choice candidate in the Democratic Caucus, or could you still be persuaded to support another candidate?

Total Democrat Independent Female Male 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Mind made up 55% 54% 58% 54% 58% 77% 53% 53% 44% Could be persuaded 26% 26% 26% 28% 25% 15% 34% 26% 28% Still deciding 15% 17% 10% 16% 14% 7% 10% 17% 22% Unsure 4% 3% 6% 3% 4% 0% 2% 4% 5%

Total White Non-White Non-College College grad Postgrad Mind made up 55% 54% 65% 56% 55% 53% Could be persuaded 26% 27% 13% 22% 31% 30% Still deciding 15% 15% 15% 16% 13% 15% Unsure 4% 4% 7% 5% 1% 2%

Total Caucus Vote: Sanders Buttigieg Warren Biden Other Unsure Mind made up 55% 70% 58% 60% 52% 45% 0% Could be persuaded 26% 17% 30% 23% 30% 36% 10% Still deciding 15% 11% 9% 14% 17% 16% 58% Unsure 4% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 32%

Total Turnout: Definitely Probably will Probably not Mind made up 55% 62% 45% 36% Could be persuaded 26% 22% 33% 33% Still deciding 15% 13% 15% 23% Unsure 4% 2% 7% 7%

Total Mind made up Persuadable Still deciding Mind made up 55% 100% 0% 0% Could be persuaded 26% 0% 100% 0% Still deciding 15% 0% 0% 100% Unsure 4% 0% 0% 0%

Iowa Democratic Caucusgoers · January 19-21, 2020 · Page 11 / 12 Demographics: Likely Caucusgoers

Party ID

Democrat 68% Independent 32%

Gender

Female 56% Male 44%

Age

18-34 21% 35-49 26% 50-64 28% 65+ 25%

Race

White 91% Non-White 9%

Education

Non-College 62% College grad 26% Postgrad 12%

Congressional district

IA-1 27% IA-2 27% IA-3 25% IA-4 21%

Iowa Democratic Caucusgoers · January 19-21, 2020 · Page 12 / 12