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UNITED NATI ONS Gmeral E/CN,12/653 a 31 March 1963 ORIGINAL: ENGLISH

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UNITED NATI ONS Gmeral E/CN,12/653 a 31 March 1963 ORIGINAL: ENGLISH UNITED NATI ONS GMERAl E/CN,12/653 A 31 March 1963 ORIGINAL: ENGLISH iiiiitiirMoii:iMt(MiiniinMn>tMr»i>ii»iouiiMMt)timuiit<ti«tMMtMtifMitnntiii4ti>uiniittitinninHttitimiMtiMM*"*!>*<nM ECONCSIIC COMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA Tenth session Mar del Plata, Argentina, May 1963 A MEASUREMENT OF PRICE LEVELS AND THE PURCHASING PCWEK OF CURRENCIES IN LATIN AMERICA, 1960-1962 (A study based on material collected in the capital cities of nineteen Latin American countries and in two cities of the United States of America) 1 B/CN,12/653 i TABLE OF CONTEMS Pages . EEIELIMINARY NOTE 1 INTRODUCTION .-..i.- 3 .... ' * I, GENERAL .....i 3 1. The inadeqmcy of prevailing'exchange rates 4 2. The objective defined 6 II. SYNOPSIS 9 " 1. Methodology 9 (a) The concept 9 (b) The problem of wei^ts U (c) The approach defined 13 2, Procedure (a) Prelindnary investigations 15 (b) Field work 16 (c) Adjustments for incomparabilities in basic data IS (d) Seasonal variations 20 (e) Price differentials vdtl^in a coüñtry •......*.• 20 (f) Final calciJlations 21 A, METHODOLOGY ....'...." 23 Chapter I: BAáíC CÒNSIDERATIOífe 23 1. Differences in income levels and expenditure patterns 23 2. Quality differences......v.- 24 3. Problems^ of quantific.atipn 25 4. Availability of informp,tion 25 Chapter II: ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES .......•.'. 29 1. Adjusted' exchange rates 29 2. Equivalent wants and satisfactions 3. Direct price comparisons 33 /Chai^er III: E/CN.12/653 Page il Pages Chapter.III; THE CHOICE OF A FCEMUIA 39 Basic equations 39 2» Multiiatèral comparisons 42 3, The computation.of regional aVêrages •••«•••••«••••• 47 4* Conclusions 4^ B. mOCEHURE 51 Chapter I: THE. PESIGIiOF ÍHB mOJECT 51 1, The scope of the er^t±ty 51 2, Preliminary investigations 52 3# The general plan 54 4. The selection of items 55 5• Classification by expenditure.groups 57 6, Specifications 58 7, The pricing-level 60 Chapter. II: COLLECTION- AM) • TABULATION OF' D'ATA C . • 63 1, The collection of price material 63 2, Adjustment.for-quality differences 64 (a) Identical items ^h (b) Common items 65 (c) Unique items .....^V 65 3, Correction for season^, influences 6? 4« The calculation of wei^ts 5. Calculation of the-resTilts 70 6, Adjustment for time• differênces 72 III. THE RESULTS OF . THE INVESTIGATION 75 Chapter I: THE GENERAL PRICE LEVEL 75 , 1. Parity ejochange rates 75 2, Price relatives (at prevailinjg exchange rates) ....• 89 3» Comparative purchasing power of currencies (at prevailing eMJha^e rates) 94 /Chapter II: r it.i E/CW. 12/653 Page iii Faf^eg Chapter II. ANALYSIS BY MAIN EXPENDITURE GROUPS, 97 1, Purchasing power ajuivalents 97 2, Price relatives (at prevailing exchange rates) 103 Chapter III, COMPARATIVE PRICE STRUCTURE (AT PARITY EXCHANGE RATES) Ill I0 Relative price levels for main ejjpenditure sectors Ill 2. Anal3rsis by country II6 3» Observations for main expenditure groups .... 121 4. Summary 134 Chanter I?. COMPARISON OF PRICE lEVEIS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE UNITED STATES 139 1. Conceptual problems 139 2. The field work 141 3. Problems in weightjjig 144 4. The results of the conparison 147 (a) Purchasing power equivalents ..«.. 147 (b) Price relatives (at free ms.rket exchange rates) * 150 (c) Analysis by main esqpenditure groups (at free market ra.tes of exchange) «... 154 (d) Summary 162 ANNEX. TECHNICAL NOTES 165 1. Earlier Research .......... 165 2. The timing of the enquiry 171 3. Classification by Expenditure Groups 172 4. Problems of price collection 177 (a) Consumer expenditure 177 (b) Investment goods * 1^3 STATISTICAL AI^NEK 1Ô5 /?RaLBiIN..RY NOTE E/CN,Í2/653 Page 1 FRELBONAKr NOTE The present stidy brings up to date the document entitled "Comparative prices and the purchasing power of curjrencies in selected latin American countries" (E/CN.12/589) sutoitted to the Econcanic Commission for Latin America at its ninth session in May 1961, Víhile the methodology has remained unchanged in all except minor aspects, the results now apply to capital cities in all Latin American countries, except Cuba for which comparable information covild not be obtained. An important addition to the study is the inclusion of data for two United States cities — Los Angeles and Houston - where prices were specially collected for ECLA by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, Results for these two cities have been included way of a comparison with those capitals in Latin America vjhere it was believed that conditions were sufficiently comparable to provide meaningful results. As with document E/CN,12/589, the data shown in the present study are presented in the foim of indexes reflecting the relative price levels, and of "purchasing power equivalents" indicating the number of currency units in one country vdaich correspond in purchasing power with a given number of currency tmits in another country. Information of this nature is presented for the main tsrpes of goods, services and producers* equips ment which enter into consumer e^qsenditure and investment in the region. Figures are also given for total expenditure - the results thereby providing a measure of the "parity" exchange rate which would give the over-all equivalent of one Latin American currency in terms of another. While in ECLA's previous work the results referred to the months in which the basic data were collected (thas introducing a factor of incomparability that was significant for those countries where prices were subject to rapid or frequent change), in the present document the calculations have been adjusted in order to relate the results to two chosen months at an interval of two years June I960 and June 1962, /For this E/GN,12/653 Page 2 For this reason^ and because of changes in the relative importance of each item now that nineteen rather than ten Latin American cotmtries are included in the calculation, the results will differ from those given in the preliminary study published in document E/CN,12/589» Notwithstanding the inclusion of the two United States cities - Houston and Los Angeles - in the calculations, no attempt has been made to calculate parity e::change rates for Latin American currencies in terms of the United States dollar (or of ary other non-Latin-American currency), Mich additional work would have to be done before such a tabtilation could be considered statistically sound. In particular, the problem of comparing countries with very different income levels and e:g5enditure patterns (e,g. Bolivia or Haiti and the United States) still needs to be solved and additional price information needs to be collected in sufficient cities to provide data which can be considered fully representative of an • average price level in the United States and in each Latin American country. In the same way, the SOLA secretariat has not yet had sufficient resources to implement the recouimendation made ty the Commission at its ninth session that the study be amplified to include -relationships between price, wage and personal income levels and that an analysis be, made of the causes underlying differences in the price structure of each country. The present study is therefore limited to a determination of ptirchasing power equivalents and of relative price levels in the capital cities of Latin America and does not pretend to evaluate in any significant way the various factors influencing such levels, . For readers not particularly interested in the discussion of the methodological and practical prcblems encountered in the study, a suismay has been provided which indicates the lines along which the study has evolved. For those who are interested in greater statistical detail than the text provides, a statistical annex has been appended'with those tables and data which appear to be of greatest interest, /INTRODUCTION E/CN.12/653 Page 3 INTRODUCTION I, GENERAL T^e establishment in Latin America of a Free-Trade Area and the progress towards a common regional market has focussed attention on three independent problems which have to some extent been a limiting factor in certain aspects of ECLA»s work: the measurement of the real "vrorth" or the purchasing power of each Latin American currency; the measurement of relative price levels for the various countriesj and the conversion into a single currency of prices or.values which are initially e^qiressed in different national currency units, Vihile to a large extent index nimbers have furnished a means of establishing relative levels at different points of time and national currency figures have sufficed for measxxring absolute levels or prices vd-thin a country, in the case of inter-covmtry comparisons, neither index numbers, percentage figures nor even national values calculated at prevailing rates of exchange have provided indicators sufficiently reliable or meaningful for mar^ analytical pwposes. In post-war years a growing emphasis has been placed on macro-economic aggregates, and interest iJi comparable national income statistics for individual countries or for the region as a whole has increased substantially. The lack of adequate measures for translating national data expressed in vaiying units of currency into reliable regional aggregates with a common monetary denominator has constituted an obstacle which usml statistical procedures have been unable to solve. Similarly, in the formation of plans or proposals for economic integration - whether of the type envisaged for the Central American countries or that considered for the Graií-Colombia region, lack of information regarding relative price levels has hindered the work. Finally, as mentioned above, the creation of a Free-Trade Area already covering the greater part of the Latin American popiilation and production has brou^t into the open the need for adequate measures /of the E/CN.12/653 Page 4 of the real "value" of each cuirency, the comparative cost structure, the relative price levels and the relationship between domestic prices and those applicable to internationally traded goods, 1, The inadequacy of prevailing exchange rates • .
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