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Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2007-2008 Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean Macroeconomic policy and volatility 2007-2008 Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean Macroeconomic policy and volatility Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary Laura López Secretary of the Commission Osvaldo Kacef Director of the Economic Development Division Diane Frishman Offi cer in Charge Documents and Publications Division www.cepal.org/de The Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean is issued annually by the Economic Development Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). This 2007-2008 edition was prepared under the supervision of Osvaldo Kacef, Director of the Division; Jürgen Weller was responsible for its overall coordination. In the preparation of this edition, the Economic Development Division was assisted by the Statistics and Economic Projections Division, the Latin American and Caribbean Institute for Economic and Social Planning (ILPES), the Division of International Trade and Integration, the ECLAC subregional headquarters in Mexico City and Port of Spain and the country offi ces of the Commission in Bogota, Brasilia, Buenos Aires, Montevideo and Washington, D.C. Chapter I, “Regional overview” was prepared by Osvaldo Kacef, with input from Omar Bello, Rodrigo Cárcamo, Filipa Correia, Rodrigo Heresi, Juan Pablo Jiménez, Sandra Manuelito, Alejandro Ramos and Jürgen Weller. The Economic Projections Centre provided data on economic growth prospects in 2008 and 2009. The chapters “Why does real volatility matter in Latin America and the Caribbean?”, “Volatility and crisis in Latin America and the Caribbean: the empirical evidence” and “Volatility, the business cycle and policy responses” drew on material written by the consultant José María Fanelli, and on documents prepared by Manuel Toledo, which were presented and examined at the workshop on macroeconomic policy and cyclical fl uctuations, cofi nanced by the Spanish Agency for International Cooperation for Development (AECID); Daniel Heymann and Enrique Kawamura; Daniel Titelman, Esteban Pérez and Rudolf Minzer; Omar Bello and Juan Pablo Jiménez; and Omar Zambrano. The chapter “Sixty years of the Economic Survey” is based on a study conducted by the consultant Alejandro Ramos. The country reports are based on studies conducted by the following experts: Olga Lucía Acosta and María Alejandra Botiva (Colombia), Omar Bello (Bolivia), Bineswaree Bolaky (Barbados), Rodrigo Cárcamo (Ecuador), Filipa Correia (Paraguay), Stefan Edwards (Suriname), Álvaro Fuentes (Uruguay), Randolph Gilbert (Haiti), Víctor Godínez (Dominican Republic), Michael Hendrickson (Bahamas and Belize), Daniel Heymann and Adrián Ramos (Argentina), Luis Felipe Jiménez (Chile), Beverly Lugay (Eastern Caribbean Currency Union), Roberto Machado (Trinidad and Tobago), Sandra Manuelito (Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela), Jorge Máttar (Mexico), Armando Mendoza (Guyana and Jamaica), Juan Carlos Moreno (Panama), Guillermo Mundt (Guatemala and Honduras), Carlos Mussi (Brazil), Ramón Padilla (Costa Rica and Nicaragua), Igor Paunovic (Cuba), Juan Carlos Rivas (El Salvador) and Jürgen Weller (Peru). Claudia Roethlisberger and Rodrigo Heresi revised the reports on the Caribbean countries. Alejandra Acevedo, Vianka Aliaga, Rodrigo Heresi and Jazmín Chiu were responsible for the processing and presentation of the statistical data. Notes The following symbols have been used in the tables shown in the Survey: Three dots (…) indicate that data are not available or are not separately reported. A dash (-) indicates that the amount is nil or negligible. A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals. The word “dollars” refers to United States dollars unless otherwise specifi ed. United Nations Publication ISBN: 978-92-1-121677-6 ISSN printed version: 0257-2184 ISSN online version: 1681-0384 ISSN CD-ROM: 1811-6191 LC/G.2386-P Sales No.: E.08.II.G.2 Copyright © United Nations, November 2008. All rights reserved Printed in Santiago, Chile Applications for the right to reproduce this work are welcomed and should be sent to the Secretary of the Publications Board, United Nations Headquarters, New York, N.Y. 10017, U.S.A. Member States and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mention the source and inform the United Nations of such reproduction. Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2007-2008 5 Contents Page Foreword................................................................................................................................................................................. 11 Executive summary ........................................................................................................................................................... 13 Chapter I Regional overview .............................................................................................................................................................. 17 A. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 17 B. The international context and the behaviour of external variables ................................................................ 18 1. The current account ................................................................................................................................. 19 2. The capital and financial accounts .......................................................................................................... 22 C. Domestic macroeconomic performance ........................................................................................................ 23 D. The role of economic policy .......................................................................................................................... 24 1. Fiscal policy ............................................................................................................................................ 24 2. Monetary and exchange-rate policy ........................................................................................................ 28 E. Changes in the international setting .............................................................................................................. 31 1. Financial volatility and the slowdown in world growth .......................................................................... 31 2. The global surge in inflation ................................................................................................................... 32 F. Latin America and the Caribbean and the slowdown in the global economy ............................................... 34 G. Steeper inflation also poses risks................................................................................................................... 40 H. Summary and conclusions ............................................................................................................................. 41 Chapter II Why does real volatility matter in Latin America and the Caribbean? ...................................................... 43 A. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 43 B. The impact of real volatility in the region ..................................................................................................... 45 Chapter III Volatility and crisis in Latin America and the Caribbean: the empirical evidence .............................. 49 A. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 49 B. The characteristics of volatility and cycles in Latin America and the Caribbean ......................................... 53 6 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) 1. Economic performance, volatility and crisis ........................................................................................... 54 2. Episodes of turbulence and periods of stability ....................................................................................... 56 3. Volatility of consumption and excessive volatility .................................................................................. 58 C. Nature and effects of shocks in Latin America and the Caribbean ............................................................... 59 1. Shocks in Latin America and the Caribbean ........................................................................................... 60 2. The role of external shocks ..................................................................................................................... 61 3. Temporary and permanent shocks ........................................................................................................... 62 4. The relationship between shocks and structural constraints ................................................................... 63 5. Shocks, property rights and appropriability ............................................................................................ 63 Chapter IV Volatility, the business cycle and policy responses........................................................................................... 65 A. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................
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