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Annual Meeting Southern California Earthquake Center 2009 Annual Meeting S C E C an NSF+USGS center Proceedings and Abstracts, Volume XIX September 12-16, 2009 SCEC ORGANIZATION SCEC ADVISORY COUNCIL Center Director, Tom Jordan Mary Lou Zoback, Chair, Risk Management Solutions Deputy Director, Greg Beroza Gail Atkinson, Carlton University Associate Director for Administration, John McRaney Lloyd Cluff, Pacific Gas and Electric Associate Director for Communication, Education, John Filson, Scientist Emeritus, U.S. Geological Survey and Outreach, Mark Benthien Jeffrey Freymuller, University of Alaska Associate Director for Information Technology, Phil Maechling Jim Goltz, CalEMA Special Projects and Events Coordinator, Tran Huynh Patti Guatteri, Swiss Reinsurance Research Contracts and Grants Coordinator, Anne Meltzer, Lehigh University Karen Young Denis Mileti, California Seismic Safety Commission Administrative Assistant, Deborah Gormley Kate Miller, University of Texas at El Paso Education Programs Manager, Bob de Groot Steve Mahin, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Digital Products Manager, John Marquis Center Research Programmers, Maria Liukis, Scott Callaghan, John Rudnicki, Northwestern University Kevin Milner, Patrick Small Systems Administrator, John Yu SCEC PLANNING COMMITTEE Chair, Greg Beroza SCEC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Seismology, Egill Hauksson, Elizabeth Cochran Tom Jordan, Chair, USC Tectonic Geodesy, Jessica Moraleda, Rowena Lohman Lisa Grant-Ludwig, Vice-Chair, UCI Earthquake Geology, Mike Oskin, James Dolan Ralph Archuleta, UCSB Unified Structural Representation, John Shaw, Kim Peter Bird, UCLA Olsen David Bowman, CSUF Fault and Rupture Mechanics, Judith Chester, Ruth Harris Tom Brocher, USGS Menlo Crustal Deformation Modeling, Liz Hearn, Kaj Emily Brodsky, UCSC Johnson Jim Brune, UNR Lithospheric Architecture and Dynamics, Paul Davis, Thorsten Becker Steve Day, SDSU Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability, Terry James Dieterich, UCR Tullis, Jeanne Hardebeck Yuri Fialko, UCSD Ground Motion Prediction, Brad Aagaard, Rob Graves Tom Herring, MIT Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis, Paul Somerville, Ken Hudnut, USGS Pasadena Nicolas Luco Nadia Lapusta, CalTech Southern San Andreas Fault Evaluation, Tom Rockwell, Kate Scharer Jim Rice, Harvard Working Group on California Earthquake Paul Segall, Stanford Probabilities, Ned Field Bruce Shaw, Columbia Collaboratory for the tudy of Earthquake Predictability, Tom Jordan, Danijel Schorlemmer Rob Wesson, USGS Golden Extreme Ground Motion, Tom Hanks Community Modeling Environment, Phil Maechling ii | Southern California Earthquake Center Table of Contents Table of Contents SCEC ANNUAL MEETING PROGRAM ............................................................................................1 Workshop Descriptions and Agendas ....................................................................................5 STATE OF SCEC, 2009...................................................................................................................21 Welcome to the 2009 Annual Meeting! .................................................................................21 Goals of the Meeting................................................................................................................21 Highlights of SCEC Achievements........................................................................................22 Organization and Leadership.................................................................................................24 Center Budget and Project Funding ......................................................................................27 Communication, Education, and Outreach..........................................................................28 SCEC4 Planning Process .........................................................................................................29 REPORT OF THE ADVISORY COUNCIL .......................................................................................31 Introduction ..............................................................................................................................31 Some General Impressions......................................................................................................31 Evaluation of the CEO Program ............................................................................................32 Feedback on CSEP....................................................................................................................34 Advice on Initiatives in Earthquake Simulation and Ground Motion Prediction..........35 Other Feedback.........................................................................................................................36 SCEC4 Planning........................................................................................................................38 Final Comments........................................................................................................................39 SCEC COMMUNICATION, EDUCATION, AND OUTREACH.........................................................40 Introduction ..............................................................................................................................40 Public Outreach Activities ......................................................................................................40 Education Program ..................................................................................................................45 RESEARCH ACCOMPLISHMENTS................................................................................................50 A. Disciplinary Activities........................................................................................................50 1. Seismology...................................................................................................................50 2. Tectonic Geodesy........................................................................................................68 3. Earthquake Geology...................................................................................................72 B. Focus Group Activities........................................................................................................78 1. Unified Structural Representation ...........................................................................78 2. Fault and Rupture Mechanics...................................................................................84 3. Crustal Deformation Modeling ................................................................................90 4. Lithospheric Architecture and Dynamics ...............................................................95 6. Ground Motion Prediction......................................................................................106 7. Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis.........................................................................120 C. Special Projects...................................................................................................................129 1. Southern San Andreas Fault Evaluation ...............................................................129 2. Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability..................................131 3. Extreme Ground Motion..........................................................................................136 4. Community Modeling Environment .....................................................................140 DRAFT 2010 SCIENCE PLAN.......................................................................................................160 2009 SCEC Annual Meeting | iii Table of Contents I. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 160 II. Guidelines for Proposal Submission.............................................................................. 160 III. SCEC Organization ......................................................................................................... 161 IV. Proposal Categories ........................................................................................................ 162 V. Evaluation Process and Criteria ..................................................................................... 163 VI. Coordination of Research Between SCEC and USGS-EHRP .................................... 164 VII. SCEC3 Science Priority Objectives .............................................................................. 165 VII-A. Disciplinary Activities .............................................................................................. 167 1. Seismology ................................................................................................................ 167 2. Tectonic Geodesy ..................................................................................................... 168 3. Earthquake Geology ................................................................................................ 169 VII-B. Interdisciplinary Focus Areas................................................................................... 170 1. Unified Structural Representation (USR) ............................................................. 171 2. Fault and Rupture Mechanics (FARM)................................................................. 171 3. Crustal Deformation Modeling (CDM) ................................................................ 172
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