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Nuclear Verification in Iran INSIDE | Syrian Chemicals Destroyed on U.S. Ship Volume 44 Number 7 Arms Control SEPTEMBER 2014 THE SOURCE ON NONPROLIFERATION AND GLOBAL SECURITYTODAY IN THIS ISSUE IAEA Custody of Nuclear Japanese Plutonium Stocks: Strengthening Confidence and Transparency Verification By Fred McGoldrick The IAEA’s State-Level In Iran Concept and the Law of Unintended Consequences By Laura Rockwood Book Review Posture Matters, but Stability Matters More By Douglas B. Shaw IN THE NEWS Russia Breaches INF Treaty, U.S. Says U.S., EU Sanction Russia’s Arms Sector Iran, P5+1 Extend Nuclear Talks By Tariq Rauf and Robert Kelley White House Reviewing Nuclear Budget U.S. $7.00 A Publication of the Arms Control Association Canada $8.00 www.armscontrol.org They knew the national interest... Shouldn’t you? Steel yourself for unflinching essays & reviews about international relations. Only $19.95 for a yearly digital subscription. Subscribe today at: www.nationalinterest.org. Like The National Interest on Facebook Follow @TheNatlInterest on Twitter 8 Arms Control THE SOURCE ON NONPROLIFERATION AND GLOBAL SECURITY TODAY Volume 44 • Number 7 • September 2014 Features 8 Nuclear Verification in Iran By Tariq Rauf and Robert Kelley To build international confidence that Iran’s nuclear program is peaceful, Iran and six world powers could agree to make the Natanz and Fordow centrifuge enrichment plants a model of monitoring and verification for such plants all over the world. Also, the IAEA should appoint a group of outside experts to review contentious issues connected with Iran’s alleged weaponization activities. 18 IAEA Custody of Japanese Plutonium Stocks: Strengthening Confidence and 3 Focus Transparency By Fred McGoldrick Bridging the Uranium- Enrichment Gap A modest but valuable step in addressing Japan’s plutonium problem would be for Tokyo to place its excess plutonium By Daryl G. Kimball under the custody of the International Atomic Energy Agency. That would ease some of the international concerns about its 4 In Brief program and bolster the global nonproliferation regime. 5 News Briefs 25 The IAEA’s State-Level Concept and the Law of Unintended Consequences Senators Push Nonproliferation Budget By Laura Rockwood Creedon Takes Office at NNSA The IAEA’s state-level concept was intended to be the next logical step in the evolution of safeguards, but it appears to China Conducts ASAT Test, U.S. Says have inadvertently provided a vehicle for a rearguard attack on long-standing measures for strengthened safeguards. IAEA U.S.-UK Nuclear Pact Revised member states should fend off this attack and reaffirm their commitment to effective safeguards. 7 Reports of Note 18 September 2014 ARMS CONTROL TODAY 45 Book Review: Posture Matters, but Stability Matters More In Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era, Vipin Narang argues that more-aggressive nuclear postures provide a better deterrent, but re- viewer Douglas B. Shaw cautions policymakers against using this advice to justify changes in nuclear posture. Cover photo: At Iran’s Natanz uranium-enrichment plant, an inspector from the International Atomic Energy Agency disconnects the connections between the twin cascades for 20 percent enrichment on January 20. Photo credit: Kazem Ghane/AFP/Getty Images 1 36 Arms Control TODAY Volume 44, Number 7 September 2014 A Publication of the Arms Control Association 1313 L Street, NW, Suite 130 Washington, DC 20005 PhONE: 202-463-8270 FAx: 202-463-8273 E-mAIL [email protected] News The United States and WEBSITE the Americas www.armscontrol.org Europe and the 39 White House PUBLIShER AND ExECUTIvE DIRECTOR Former Soviet Union Daryl G. Kimball Reviewing Nuclear 31 Russia Breaches INF Budget EDITOR NONPROLIFERATION Daniel horner ANALyst Treaty, U.S. Says The White House is overseeing Kelsey Davenport an interagency review of mul- CONTRIBUTING EDITOR The State Department has Jefferson morley PROGRAm ASSOCIATE accused Russia of testing a tibillion-dollar plans to rebuild Timothy Farnsworth ASSISTANT EDITOR new medium-range, ground- the U.S. nuclear arsenal, while Jackie Barrientes FINANCE OFFICER a bipartisan congressional merle Newkirk launched cruise missile in SENIOR Fellow violation of the 1987 Inter- commission has found the ad- Greg Thielmann KROC Fellow Jonah Aboni mediate-Range Nuclear Forces ministration’s modernization RESEARCh DIRECTOR Treaty. Moscow denies the plans “unaffordable.” Tom Z. Collina INTERN Brianna Starosciak charge. 40 Vietnam Pact Nears BOARD OF DIRECTORS 33 U.S., EU Sanction End of Hill Review John Steinbruner Christine Wing Russia’s Arms Sector The congressional review Chairman Treasurer Responding to Russian inter- period for a U.S.-Vietnamese Avis Bohlen Jack mendelsohn matthew Bunn Janne Nolan vention in Ukraine, Western civilian nuclear agreement is J. Bryan hehir hazel R. O’Leary governments barred new arms almost finished, and action John Isaacs Nathan Pyles transfers to Moscow. Ongoing seems unlikely. Some congres- Catherine Kelleher Rachel Stohl michael Klare Jeremiah Sullivan U.S. and French deals worth sional sources say broader Kenneth N. Luongo Paul Walker billions have stirred contro- issues raised by the pact could versy, but are not banned. resurface. The Arms Control Association (ACA), founded in 1971, is a nonprofit membership organization dedicated to promoting public understanding The Middle East and 41 State Dept. Targets and support for effective arms control policies. Africa ‘Generation Prague’ Through its media and public education programs and its magazine Arms Control Today, ACA 35 Syrian Chemicals For the past five years, the provides policymakers, journalists, educators, and the interested public with authoritative Destroyed on U.S. State Department has hosted information and analyses on arms control, Ship an annual conference on proliferation, and global security issues. arms control and disarma- The destruction of Syria’s most ment to heighten interest in Arms Control Today (ISSN 0196-125X) is published monthly, dangerous chemical weapons the issue among students and except for two bimonthly issues appearing in January/February and materials was completed Aug. July/August. Membership in the Arms Control Association includes young professionals. a one-year subscription to Arms Control Today at the following rates: 18 aboard a U.S. ship in the $35 student, $70 individual, $100 international. Non-member sub- Mediterranean Sea. scription rates are: $65 individual, $85 institutional, with international Asia and Australia rates of $95 individual and $105 institutional. Digital-only subscrip- tions are also available. Please contact the Arms Control Association 36 Iran, P5+1 Extend 44 Congress Questions for more details. Letters to the Editor are welcome and can be sent via e-mail or postal mail. Letters should be under 600 words and may Nuclear Talks Policy on N. Korea be edited for space. Interpretations, opinions, or conclusions in Arms Control Today should be understood to be solely those of the authors Iran and six world powers At a July 30 hearing, members and should not be attributed to the association, its board of directors, agreed to a four-month ex- of Congress questioned the officers, or other staff members, or to organizations and individuals that support the Arms Control Association. Arms Control Today tension for negotiations on a Obama administration’s pol- encourages reprint of its articles, but permission must be granted by comprehensive deal address- icy toward negotiations with the editor. Advertising inquiries may be made to act@armscontrol. org. Postmaster: Send address changes to Arms Control Today, 1313 ing Iran’s nuclear program. North Korea over its nuclear ARMS CONTROL TODAY September 2014 ARMS CONTROL TODAY L Street, NW, Suite 130, Washington, D.C. 20005. Periodicals post- program. age paid at Washington D.C., Suburban, MD and Merrifield, VA. © 2 September 2014, Arms Control Association. By Daryl G. Kimball FOCUS Executive Director Bridging the Uranium-Enrichment Gap long-sought, comprehensive deal between Iran and Negotiators can square the circle in a number of ways. The the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United International Crisis Group and the Arms Control Association re- AKingdom, and the United States) to ensure Iran’s nuclear cently outlined a formula that would increase the time Iran would program is exclusively peaceful is within reach. Both sides have require to produce enough weapons-grade material for one bomb been negotiating seriously, but some big gaps must still be bridged and still would provide Iran with more than sufficient capacity before the Nov. 24 deadline. for its civilian nuclear program over a period of 11 to 16 years. Key To succeed, both sides must seek creative trade-offs, particularly elements of the proposal include: on the toughest issue: Iran’s uranium-enrichment capacity. In previous rounds of talks, the two sides reached a basic under- • Reducing Iran’s current enrichment capacity by half for a standing on several key issues, including strengthening Interna- period of three to five years. Combined with a reduction in tional Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections to guard against the size of Iran’s enriched-uranium stocks, this would increase a secret weapons program and modifying the Arak heavy-water the time it would take Iran to produce enough weapons-grade reactor project to drastically cut its plutonium output. enriched-uranium gas to 12 months or more. Iran’s operating The two sides also agreed that Iran need not enrich uranium to enrichment
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