Israel and the Middle East News Update

Wednesday, June 26

Headlines:

• Kushner in Bahrain: No Palestinain Prosperity Without Fair Political Solution • U.N. Chief: Important Mideast Peace Efforts Realize Two-State Vision • Trump Warns of 'Overwhelming' US Retaliation to Any Iranian Attack • In Trilateral Summit, Russia Sides with Iran, Against Israel and US • Netanyahu to ‘Consider’ Proposal to Cancel Upcoming Election • Lapid Rejects Netanyahu-Gantz Rotation Offer for PM • Far Right Faction Dismantles Partnership with Right-Wing Parties • In U-turn, SpaceIL Says Another Spacecraft Won’t be Sent to Moon

Commentary:

• Ma’ariv: “Netanyahu will Balk at Nothing in his Flight from Prosecution” - By Ben Caspit columnist at Ma’ariv • Ha’aretz: “In Bahrain, Air of Israeli-Arab Normalization and a Message to Iran” - By Noa Landau, commentator at Ha’aretz

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● Yehuda Greenfield-Gilat, Associate Editor

News Excerpts June 26, 2019 Ynet News Kushner in Bahrain: No Pal’ Prosperity Without Fair Political Solution Senior White House adviser Jared Kushner said on Tuesday that prosperity for the Palestinians was not possible without a fair political solution - but that agreement on an economic way forward was a necessary precondition for Israeli-Palestinian peace. Kushner was addressing the opening of a workshop in Bahrain to showcase the economic portion of Washington's long-awaited Arab-Israeli peace plan, dubbed "the deal of the century," a $50 billion development blueprint unveiled this week that has been sharply criticised by Palestinians and Arabs across the region. "What we have developed is the most comprehensive economic plan ever created specifically for the Palestinians and the broader Middle East," he told an audience. See also, “Kushner says peace deal is needed for Palestinian economic plan to succeed” (CNN)

Reuters U.N. Chief: Important Mideast Peace Efforts Realize Two-State Vision United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Tuesday it was important “to pursue peace efforts to realize the vision of two States, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace and security.” Guterres was speaking at a pledging conference in New York for the U.N. agency that helps Palestinian refugees as President Donald Trump’s administration launched in Bahrain a $50 billion economic formula for Israeli-Palestinian peace. It is not clear whether the Trump administration plans to abandon the “two-state solution,” which involves creation of an independent Palestinian state living side by side with Israel. The Trump administration has consistently refused to commit to it, keeping the political stage a secret. See also, “UN's Guterres seeks funding for agency helping Palestinians” (France 24) i24 News Trump Warns of 'Overwhelming' US Retaliation to Any Iranian Attack President Donald Trump on Tuesday warned Iran that an attack on US interests would trigger an "overwhelming" response and could bring "obliteration." "Any attack by Iran on anything American will be met with great and overwhelming force. In some areas, overwhelming will mean obliteration," Trump tweeted, adding that Iran's leaders only understand "Strength and Power, and the USA is by far the most powerful Military Force in the world." Trump also commented on Iran's statement on Tuesday that it will "resolutely" abandon more nuclear deal commitments on July 7, calling it "very ignorant and insulting." See also, “Trump threatens ‘obliteration’ after Iran suggests he has a ‘mental disorder’” (Guardian)

Times of Israel In Trilateral Summit, Russia Sides with Iran, Against Israel and US Russia’s top national security adviser spoke out on behalf of Iran during trilateral meetings with his Israeli and American counterparts in Jerusalem on Tuesday, backing Tehran’s claims against the United States and supporting its ongoing military presence in Syria, which Israel sees as a threat to its security. The trilateral conference of Israeli, Russian, and US national security advisers was the first event of its kind to be held in Jerusalem and, according to Israel, was aimed specifically at countering Iran, including both its nuclear aspirations and its influence throughout the Middle East. See also, “At Jerusalem Summit, Bolton Says Iran Has ‘Open Door’ For Negotiations” (Jewish Journal) 2

Ha’aretz Netanyahu to ‘Consider’ Proposal to Cancel Upcoming Election Netanyahu will consider an initiative to call off the September 17 election after it was proposed by the speaker of the , the party announced on Tuesday. Speaker Yuli Edelstein, also a member of , believes there is a legal mechanism that would permit calling off the election, but a proposal has not been put before Knesset Legal Adviser Eyal Yinon. Sources familiar with the initiative told that it is likely to be overturned by the High Court, and a Likud source said Netanyahu would need to work to defend the bill in court if it does get the majority needed. Likud is trying to get 80 of the Knesset’s 120 members to support the bill, even though only 61 are needed. For such a bill to become law, the Basic Law on the Knesset would have to be amended. Kahol Lavan Chairman , said that Tuesday’s development “makes clear that Netanyahu is afraid of the public’s verdict.” See also, “Netanyahu says he’s considering proposal to cancel September election” (TOI)

Jerusalem Post Lapid Rejects Netanyahu-Gantz Rotation Offer for PM Blue and White’s number two candidate, , turned down an offer from Likud on Wednesday to have Prime Minister and Blue and White leader Benny Gantz rotate as prime minister. “There is no problem with a unity government,” Lapid wrote on Twitter. “There is only one man, only one, who has to move aside and go deal with his indictments.” Lapid called upon the Likud to replace Netanyahu, suggesting MK Gideon Sa’ar, Foreign Minister and Edelstein himself as possible replacements. “The Likud can appoint whoever they want,” Lapid said. “We would have a unity government of at least 75 MKs that would be stable, functional and fair.” See also, “Opposition seethes as Netanyahu mulls bid to nix September elections” (TOI)

Ynet News Far Right Faction Dismantles Partnership with Right-Wing Parties Far-right Otzma Yehudit member Itamar Ben-Gvir announced his party is pulling out of the agreement reached with the United Right Party, before the April 2019 elections, uniting political parties to the right of the ruling Likud in order to present a stronger and more unified bloc to support the Netanyahu government. Ben-Gvir told United Right leaders, that since his faction's demands to seat him in the Knesset were not fulfilled, He is disolving the partnership which was initiated and cheered on by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in order to maximise right wing votes to support his Likud led government, an effort that failed with Netanyahu unable to form a coalition government. See also, “Israeli far-right party breaks alliance with Jewish Home, endangering right-wing bloc” (JTA)

Ha’aretz In U-turn, SpaceIL Says Another Spacecraft Won’t be Sent to Moon Israeli nonprofit SpaceIL on Tuesday announced it will not repeat its attempt to land a spacecraft on the moon, following the crash landing of the Beresheet probe earlier this year. Beresheet, the world’s first privately funded moon lander, collided with the lunar surface in April during an attempted landing due to technical failure. Just days after the failed landing, SpaceIL announced it would launch a second mission named Beresheet 2, with the company’s chairman Morris Kahn vowing to put an Israeli flag on the moon. But after “in-depth discussions on the appropriate nature of Beresheet 2’s mission,” SpaceIL said in a statement, the company “reached the conclusion that the attempt to repeat the moon journey isn’t challenging enough.”

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Ma’ariv– June 26, 2019 Netanyahu will Balk at Nothing in his Flight from Prosecution By Ben Caspit, columnist at Ma’ariv • The name of Binyamin Netanyahu’s current comedy sketch to call off the elections that he just recently forced on an entire Knesset is the “Yuli Edelstein initiative.” The month of July [Yuli, in Hebrew] truly is nigh upon us, and Edelstein is sure to follow in short order. • It’s hard to believe the depth of ridiculousness to which the prime minister has dragged the last vestiges of Israeli stateliness. Netanyahu will balk at nothing in his flight from prosecution. If he’s so afraid of elections, why did he work with all his might to have them called? How is that night, when Netanyahu forced an entire Knesset to commit suicide on his behalf, different from all the other nights in which he has been using every engine at full blast to move in the opposite direction? The most incredible thing is the group that surrounds him, a group that has obeyed and tweeted [obey and tweet in Hebrew share similar roots] the new spin, without even noticing that the new spin completely contradicts the old spin, which contradicted the one before, and so on and so forth. • The initiative to call off the new elections was first reported on Friday by [Ben Caspit in] Ma’ariv. That article presented details from the quiet negotiations that Netanyahu has been holding with Blue and White in an attempt to pave himself a bypass route that might allow him to avoid the dire decree that Netanyahu issued a minute before. The goal was to enlist 80 MKs who would sign a bill to repeal the law that dissolved the Knesset, and to form instead the Israeli dream government: the Likud along with Blue and White, Netanyahu along with Gantz, Katz along with Lapid, Saar along with Yaalon, Galant along with Ashkenazi (if I could only be a fly on the wall in that case). • Not everyone in Blue and White dismissed that proposal as delusional. Supposedly, Blue and White was to be given control of the justice system in that government (the justice portfolio, the public security portfolio, the Constitution, Law and Justice Committee and the Ministerial Committee for Legislation), which would be formed without the Haredim, without Smotrich, without extremists and without coalition constraints, and which would allow the two large parties to move ahead and make historic decisions. • Meanwhile, the story got leaked and the MKs from Blue and White have outwardly denied everything, and justly so. They don’t want to end up like Avi Gabbay. But Netanyahu hasn’t given up. He never gives up. He and the family photographer, Natan Eshel, have continued to plot and scheme. This is no longer an effort to preserve the right-wing government; this isn’t even an attempt to entrench the Likud’s hold on power. This is a mission that is solely designed to protect the leader’s freedom and his family’s welfare. Anyone who is prepared to raise a hand and vote in favor of immunity or an override clause that will help him dodge prosecution is kosher. Ahmed would be fine, Ayman would be great and, if need be, we’ll even bring Azmi Bishara back from Qatar or remove the mark of moral turpitude from the recently-released prisoner, Basel Ghattas. The only thing that matters is that they’re on board. • That isn’t a tall tale. This is what Netanyahu did and has continued to try to do in the past few weeks to continue to survive. First, he offered the Labor Party to join the government in exchange for the crown jewels. When that didn’t work, he offered just Avi Gabbay and Tal

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Rousso to join in exchange for being appointed the messiah and his deputy. When that didn’t work he offered Gantz an alternating premiership, just before the vote to dissolve the Knesset was about to be held. Throughout that entire process, Netanyahu continued to try to win over . Then he went to the Haredim to beg. Then, so as to prevent anyone else from trying to form a government, he dissolved the Knesset. Now he wants to reverse the dissolution and to start over. The current hit is the Arabs. Unbelievable. • The quiet, indirect and denied negotiations between Balfour Street and Blue and White have been ongoing. They are being held in a format that allows everyone to deny that they are being held without really lying. Netanyahu is willing to give Gantz everything, literally everything. One indication of just how far he’s prepared to go can be found in Daphna Liel’s report on Hahadashot last night about how Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein has already begun to build the legal platform that will allow the elections to be called off, even though that can’t be done legally. The plan is to convene the Knesset Secretariat, which will cancel the summer recess; that will allow the Knesset to be convened in order to pass special legislation to call off the elections. I’d suggest that the MKs then pass legislation that will cancel the July and August heat. • The latest twist in the plot is an interesting attempt by Netanyahu to lay siege on Gantz- Ashkenazi (they have deliberately refrained from talking about Lapid-Yaalon) and to threaten them: either you join me or I’ll call off the elections without any favors from you (but with favors from the horrid Arabs whom I just now maligned), and you’ll end up stuck with one another. • Netanyahu realizes that he’s exhausted the options available to him in his current position, and that he’s run out of road. This is somewhat reminiscent of his efforts to get to join his government on the eve of his fall from power in 1999. It was too late back then. It looks like it’s too late this time as well. It’s a real shame that he never realizes that in time.

Summary: This is what Netanyahu did and has continued to try to do in the past few weeks to continue to survive. First, he offered the Labor Party to join the government in exchange

for the crown jewels. When that didn’t work, he offered just Avi Gabbay and Tal Rousso to join in exchange for being appointed the messiah and his deputy. When that didn’t work he offered Gantz an alternating premiership, just before the vote to dissolve the Knesset was about to be held. Throughout that entire process, Netanyahu continued to try to win over Avigdor Lieberman. Then he went to the Haredim to beg. Then, so as to prevent anyone else from trying to form a government, he dissolved the Knesset. Now he wants to reverse the dissolution and to start over. The current hit is the Arabs. Unbelievable.

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Ha’aretz– June 26, 2019 In Bahrain, Air of Israeli-Arab Normalization and a Message to Iran

By Noa Landau, commentator at Ha’aretz • Under strict security arrangements and despite the absence of official Israeli and Palestinian representatives, the biggest public event indicating the normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab world was held on Tuesday evening in the Four Seasons Hotel in Manama, the capital of the tiny island of Bahrain. • This was the Trump administration’s Peace to Prosperity economic conference, intended to raise $50 billion in contributions for the Palestinians – if the peace plan, which the Americans plan on presenting to the parties after the election in Israel in September, makes progress.The festive event opened with a reception and an alcohol-free “cocktail party,” because the hotel follows Islamic law that bans alcohol. But even without alcohol, dozens of businesspeople from Arab countries were at ease chatting with Israeli counterparts – openly and in the presence of journalists. • In the end, the Palestinians were there too. About 15 Palestinians attended, including Ashraf Jabari from Hebron, the only Palestinian scheduled to speak at the conference. They told Haaretz that they came from all parts of the and Jerusalem, and Jabari may be representing them as a speaker, but they support the conference, too. At one point, the former IDF Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, reserve general Yoav Mordechai, sat with them on the sofas in the hotel lobby. Mordechai attended the conference as a private businessman. Haaretz also saw other Palestinians at the event who were not part of Jabari’s group – but they asked to remain anonymous. • Among the senior officials who also attended the event was Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Khalid bin Ahmed al Khalifa, who spoke publicly with Israelis. For example, he spoke with the director general of Sheba Medical Center, Prof. Yitshak Kreiss, who told Haaretz, “We were pleasantly surprised by the constructive, inclusive atmosphere looking for shared challenges, and we found all the parties very open to entrepreneurship and future cooperation as soon as possible.” • A senior Bahraini official told Haaretz that relations with Israel are warming, but hosting the conference was also a complicated issue for them – in terms of their relations with the Palestinians. He said pressure from the United States was one of the main reasons it was held in Bahrain in the end. Another Israeli participant, the head of Nokia for the Mediterranean region, Aric Tal, told Haaretz: “We launched a 3G network in 2018 in the Palestinian Authority and Nokia has a global development center that implements a model of employment in the PA. I was asked to share the model here, with the goal being economic leverage in the region.” • The opening speaker was Jared Kushner, a senior adviser to his father-in-law, U.S. President Donald Trump, the head of the American team for the peace plan – and the person behind the event in Bahrain. In his speech, in the style of a TED talk, Kushner presented the economic section of the peace plan he has been working on for the past two years. “For too long the Palestinian people have been trapped in a framework for the past,” Kushner said. “This is a framework for a brighter future. It is a vision of what is possible with peace.

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• “Imagine a bustling tourist center in Gaza and the West Bank. Imagine people and goods flowing securely throughout the region as people become more prosperous. This is not a stretch, it is the historic legacy of the Middle East,“ said Kushner. “Peace can only be achieved if it comes for a pathway for people to improve their lives. Pursuing opportunity instead of blaming others for their current misfortune … Palestinians have intelligence, perseverance, strength in great supply … My direct message: despite what those who let you down in the past tell you, the president and Americans have not given up on you. • The opening panel, entitled: “The Time is Now: Building a Coalition for Middle East Prosperity,” followed. It will continue all day on Wednesday. Speaking as part of the panel, Emirati businessman Mohammed Alabbar said that the Middle East is a region of hope and that “Palestinian people are our people. We get up every morning positive, and we want to do more.” “For generations, the vision of a vibrant and prosperous Middle East, specifically the West Bank and Gaza, has been blurred by the absence of continuous, sustainable peace. The private sector, including local formal, informal, regional and multinational players, can play an integral role in restoring and ushering a new era of prosperity,” said Alabbar, one of the wealthiest people in the Gulf region. “By generating jobs, income opportunities and filling gaps in delivering basic services, the private sector can help build momentum behind a fragile economy and instill hope in the people of the region. Indeed, when a steadfast peace plan is eventually put in place, the private sector will be the important catalyst that kickstarts the transformation of the West Bank and Gaza and opens a new chapter of economic prosperity in the region.” • Alabbar spoke as part of the panel – moderated by British television journalist Nik Gowing – along with Jewish American businessman Stephen Schwarzman, a Trump supporter and private equity billionaire who is the CEO and chairman of the Blackstone Group. Speaking to Israeli journalists, he also had a message for Israelis. He told Haaretz: “I think we all live on a very small planet called Earth and we have a duty to the families. We have a duty to society we live in, we have a duty to our neighbors and to the world … No matter how small these steps are we should something. And we as businessmen have a duty to our society, not only to make money and try to avoid taxes, but I really think we should do something good for the people.” • The evening ended with a festive dinner in the hotel. Among the American participants, in addition to Kushner and his Jared Kushner's closest aide Avi Berkowitz, who in recent months has become one of the very few people in on the secrets of the administration’s peace plan, were Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, and U.S. special envoy to the Middle East Jason Greenblatt. The U.S. special representative for Iran, Brian Hook, also took part in the conference, as part of the administration’s attempts to display a “united front” with Israel and Sunni Arab nations against Iran. • The White House said it was not a coincidence that the conference is being held at the same time as two diplomatic visits by senior U.S. officials in the Middle East, which are related more to the tensions with Iran. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited the Gulf states to discuss responses with their leaders to recent Iranian moves; and National Security Adviser John Bolton is in Jerusalem for a trilateral American-Israeli-Russian meeting focusing on Iran and Syria. For the Trump administration, the Bahrain conference is important – but not necessarily the most important meeting that will be held this week in the Middle East. • The White House said that despite the original announcements by Russia and China that they would not participate in the conference, among the hundreds of participants are low level 7

representatives from both countries. Other representatives – who until the last moment it was unclear whether they would attend or not – include the European Union special representative to the Middle East, Susanna Terstal, who is very well acquainted with the Gulf region from her time as the Dutch ambassador to Iran. • A particularly fascinating Bahraini representative at the conference was Houda Ezra Ebrahim Nonoo, the Jewish woman who served as Bahrain’s ambassador to Washington from 2008 through 2013. Bahrain has a tiny Jewish community numbering 34 people. In a rare occurrence, Haaretz visited the synagogue in Manama, which was built in the early 19th century and was renovated in 1996 with the help of a contribution from a French philanthropist. The synagogue is not in regular use, but the community gathers there for holidays.

Summary: Speaking as part of the panel, Emirati businessman Mohammed Alabbar said that the Middle East is a region of hope and that “Palestinian people are our people. We get up every morning positive, and we want to do more.” “For generations, the vision of a vibrant and prosperous Middle East, specifically the West Bank and Gaza, has been blurred by the absence of continuous, sustainable peace. The private sector, including local formal, informal, regional and multinational players, can play an integral role in restoring and ushering a new era of prosperity,” said Alabbar, one of the wealthiest people in the Gulf region. “By generating jobs, income opportunities and filling gaps in delivering basic services, the private sector can help build momentum behind a fragile economy and instill hope in the people of the region. Indeed, when a steadfast peace plan is eventually put in place, the private sector will be the important catalyst that kickstarts the transformation of the West Bank and Gaza and opens a new chapter of economic prosperity in the region.”

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