Peace Confidence Index 17

An Opinion Poll On Peace

Peace Confidence Index (PCI) TOP-LINE RESULTS Social Indicator

February 2004

© 2004 Social Indicator ● Centre for Policy Alternatives hile many studies have been conducted on various aspects of W this conflict, none have attempted to capture the changes in public perception over a period of time. The lack of such a study was identified as a significant void by Social Indicator (SI), the social research unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA). The Peace Confidence Index study (PCI) seeks to fill this lacuna. The study will be conducted bi- monthly to gauge the impact of local and international political developments on public attitudes towards the peace process.

This report was prepared with funds provided by:

The U.S. Agency for International Development under the Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI), Sri Lanka.

Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results

CONTENTS

• INTRODUCTION 01 • KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS 02 • FINDINGS AT A GLANCE 06 • PEACE CONFIDENCE INDEX (PCI) 12 TOP-LINE RESULTS

CONFIDENCE IN PEACE 12

SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT 15

CONFIDENCE 18

THE PEACE PROCESS 22

INTERNATIONAL THIRD PARTY FACILITATION 23

NORWEGIAN FACILITATION 24

INDIA’S INVOLVEMENT 26

• RECENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS 27

SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION 27

FEDERAL SOLUTION 30

SLFP – JVP ALLIANCE 35

UNETHICAL CONVERSIONS 37

ATTACKS ON CHURCHES 44

DISSOLUTION OF PARLIAMENT 48

• ANNEX

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INTRODUCTION

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of public confidence in the peace process using a set of standardised questions which remain unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of questions related to recent social, economic and political developments in order to gauge public opinion of the peace process, which by definition will change from one wave to another.

Such information, collected over a period of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a useful barometer of the opinions of the Sri Lankan polity, and ensure that the collective opinions of the public are given due importance and incorporated into the policy debate.

SCOPE & METHODOLOGY

The study is carried out using a structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face interviews amongst a 2,125 respondent sample. The 17 administrative districts of the seven provinces, excluding the Northern and the Eastern provinces, and areas under Government control of the Amparai, Batticoloa, Trincomalee and Vavuniya were surveyed. Data is weighted to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of the districts in which the sample was surveyed.

Sixteen waves of the PCI study were conducted in May, June, September and November 2001 and January, March, May, July, September, November 2002 and January, March, May, July, September and November 2003. The latest wave was conducted in February 2004. This publication presents only the top-line results of the February 2004 survey.

The results of these seventeen waves offer us data for a comparative study on changing public opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of war and peace to the proscription of the LTTE. The results are subject to a 3% margin of error.

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KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS DECEMBER 2003 – FEBRUARY 2004

• One person died and another injured when a hand grenade was thrown at Kandalkaduthu in Kinniya police area on Sunday night. President Chandrika Kumaratunga has directed Defence authorities and the IGP to take immediate steps to normalise the situation in the Trincomalee district. (01 December 2003)- (Daily Mirror on 02 December 2003) • The third round of talks between President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe went positively with a certain degree of consensus being reached, informed sources said. (04 December 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 05 December 2003) • One of Sri Lanka's best known, most outspoken and controversial monk, the Venerable Gangodawila Soma Thera, better known as Soma Hamuduruwo, died suddenly in Russia yesterday after a heart failure. He was 54. (12 December 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 13 December 2003) • In an unprecedented move an inquest on the death of the Venerable Gangodawila Soma Thera was conducted at the Ragama hospital yesterday by three JMOs with the assistance of two heart specialists and unconfirmed reports said they would be reporting to the Magistrate today that death was due to heart failure. (18 December 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 19 December 2003) • Talks aimed at resolving a power struggle between President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe have failed, raising fresh concerns for a fragile peace bid with the LTTE, political sources said today. (21 December 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 22 December 2003) • Amidst growing concern over religious tension, President Chandrika Kumaratunga today put the Police and the armed forces on full alert and ordered them to crack down on anyone trying to create trouble among religious groups. The President who met DIGs of the Western and Southern Provinces said that the country battered by decades of racial conflicts could not and must not allow religious trouble to erupt as preparations were finalised for the cremation of the Ven. Gangodavila Soma Thera at Independence Square tomorrow amidst continuing allegations and rumours, the President said. (22 December 2003)- (Daily Mirror on 23 December 2003) • A mob that ran berserk just after the funeral pyre of Ven. Gangodawila Soma Thera was set alight and sheer pandemonium reigned when police anti-riot squads responded by firing tear gas to break up the crowds who were demanding the release of two suspects whom the police had rescued from the mob. Reports said the two men were attacked by the mob for allegedly distributing scurrilous pamphlets at the Independence Square. (24 December 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 25 December 2003) • More than one hundred Buddhist monks of the Jathika Sangha Sammelanaya today staged a fast unto death opposite the Buddha Sasana Ministry, urging the government and President Chandrika Kumaratunga to bring in laws to curb unethical conversions. (29 December 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 30 December 2003) • Police said today they had stepped up security at churches after two Christian sites were attacked amid continuing inter-religious tension. DIG K. P. Pathirana said mobile patrols had been intensified in vulnerable areas following Sunday's attack on a Jehovah's Witnesses hall and another church in Colombo. (29 December 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 30 December 2003) • Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe today called on President Chandrika Kumaratunga to take over the task of handling the peace process by introducing suitable amendments to the Ceasefire Agreement of February 2001 and renegotiate the Accord with the LTTE. (07 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 08 January 2004) • Tamil political parties today raised concern over the Prime Minister's statement calling on the President to take over the entire Peace Process and the ceasefire agreement with the LTTE. (07 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 08 January 2004) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga admitted today for the first time that she had been sworn-in for the second time, one year after she took oaths in 1999. "It is up to me to take a decision whether I am to continue in the office of President till 2006 or not. But I may not want to stay that long in this bad political culture," President Kumaratunga said in an interview with ITN today. (13 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 14 January 2004-http://www.dailymirror.lk/2004/01/14/front/3.asp) • Despite the peace process being at a standstill due to the political stalemate, humanitarian assistance to the North - East will continue, government Peace Secretariat sources said today. (14 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 15 January 2004) • The LTTE has given a solemn pledge to the Norwegian facilitators that it will abide by the cease-fire agreement and maintain peace, irrespective of the continuing turmoil in Colombo. The assurance was given by the LTTE's chief negotiator, Anton Balasingham, when he met on Wednesday with a Norwegian delegation led by Oslo's Special Envoy Erik Solheim. (15 January 2004)-(www.tamilnet.com)

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• The Roman Catholic Church of St. Michael's in Katuwana, Homagama came under a mob attack early today for the second time in three weeks. Police blamed religious extremists for the attack, one of several reported throughout the country in the recent past. (15 January 2004)-(Daily News on 16 January 2004) • Retired Major General Trond Furuhovde will be appointed as the new Head of Mission of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) replacing Tryggve Tellefsen, who is in Oslo after being accused of endangering national security by President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga. (16 January 2004)-(Daily News on 17 January 2004) • The main Opposition SLFP today came down hard on the business community, saying that a minority section of the business sector whom they termed as a group of "self-proclaimed high priests" have become spokesmen for the UNF government. SLFP Spokesman Mangala Samaraweera told a news conference that the Joint Business Forum at a recently held seminar had repeated the demands (originally) made by the UNF government.- -Jan 16-Daily Mirror Jan 17 • The SLFP and the JVP today reached a landmark agreement placing their joint signatures to a Memorandum of Understanding aimed at forming a broad national alliance and vowed it would defeat the UNF government and the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding was the first step towards it. (20 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 21 January 2004 & www.tamilnet.com on 21 January 2004) • Two men who were putting up flags and festoons to celebrate the signing of the MoU between SLFP and JVP were killed in a grenade attack on them in Senaikkudiyiruppu in the Puttalam district Monday, Police said. (19 January 2004)-(www.tamilnet.com) • Japanese special peace envoy Yasushi Akashi arriving in Colombo today on a week long visit told the media that he will not interfere with the internal politics of the country and added that he will share "certain thoughts" with the "relevant parties" in a bid to end the political impasse. Akashi will chair the follow-up meeting to the Tokyo Donor Conference on Reconstruction and Development in Sri Lanka on Friday (23). (20 January 2004)-(Daily News on 21 January 2004) • A visiting three-member International Monetary Fund (IMF) delegation has expressed satisfaction at the progress of the Lanka Government's Fiscal Reform Program in strengthening the economy, but expressed grave concern over the current political impasse. These concerns have been expressed at individual meetings with Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe at Temple Trees Friday 16 January and the other with Finance Minister K.N. Choksy at the Treasury on Monday Jan-19. (21 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror) • In what seems to be a major departure from the earlier stand of the main Opposition, Senior President's Advisor Lakshman Kadirgamar today reiterated that the new SLFP-JVP alliance is ready to resume talks with the LTTE without pre-conditions and even vowed to take the latest set of proposals by the LTTE as a "basis" for talks. (21 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 22 January 2004) • Rekindling hopes for renewed cohabitation, President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, during yesterday's cabinet meeting, reached consensus on a number of issues including changes in the electoral system and agreed to hold provincial polls on April 28. (21 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 22 January 2004) • Slamming the SLFP-JVP Memorandum of Understanding as a pact that creates objective conditions for the resumption of war, the LTTE today said the deal failed to produce any concrete, realistic formula for a negotiated settlement of the Tamil national question. (21 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 22 January 2004) • The LTTE said today that it declined to accept Japanese special envoy Yashushi Akashi’s invitation to participate in a donor meeting in Colombo on Jan 23, 2004 because there was no political stability and unified leadership of government in Colombo now. (22 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 23 January 2004) • The National Bhikku Front today handed over a petition to President Chandrika Kumaratunga urging immediate action to ban anti-Buddhist Non-governmental Organizations that they allege were creating conflicts among religions and thereby helping the LTTE. (22 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 23 January 2004) • International donors want aid to keep flowing into Sri Lanka, but voiced concern today that a political crisis would make that difficult by hindering efforts to revive the stalled peace process. The meeting of aid donors comes amidst a power struggle between President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. "It was a good meeting, very constructive," said one diplomat who attended the closed-door meeting. The meeting of about a dozen donor countries plus the International Monetary Fund and other international bodies was chaired by Japanese special envoy Yasushi Akashi and was a follow-up to a donor conference in Tokyo last summer. (23 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 24 January 2004) • In spite of appeals by religious and national leaders, attacks on Christian places of worship continue, as a Catholic prayer centre at Mattegoda has been attacked. Area police chief N. Navaratne said that about 25 people had entered the prayer centre at the Mattegoda Housing Scheme on Jan 26 and set the place on fire after causing damage to statues and other items. (26 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 28 January 2004)

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• The Bar Association President Ananda Wijesekera announcing his decision to stand down amidst a major controversy said today that every lawyer had a right to represent his client and make representations in the best interests of his client and this right was not diminished on a public holiday or after working hours. Mr. Wijesekera drew flak from a section of his own legal fraternity and several civil society organizations for his involvement in producing Sri Lanka Telecom Chairman Thilanga Sumathipala before the Additional Fort Magistrate on a Poya day to obtain his discharge from the case pending against him. (29 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 30 January 2004) • The eight-day long fast to death campaign carried out by the Health Services Trade Union Alliance came to an end today amidst celebration and fanfare opposite the Health Ministry after Health Ministry took steps to issue the circular containing the new salary scales and procedures. (02 February 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 03 February 2004) • The 11-day-old railway strike which crippled the public transport sector causing agony to tens of thousands of commuters was last night called off after a Memorandum of Understanding was signed between the government and trade unions. (07 February 2004)-(Daily Mirror) • Parliament is dissolved from midnight, clearing the way for an election on April 2, 2004. "Dissolved. Election 2 April," Mano Tittawella, director-general of the president's office, said in a message. (07 February 2004)-(www.lankapage.com) • The dissolution of the Sri Lankan parliament and the call for a snap election constitutes a grave setback to the peace process. The decision to seek another mandate from the people clearly demonstrates the fact that the Sinhala political leadership lacks the political will and vision to resolve the country’s burning issue - the Tamil national question,” said Mr Anton Balasingham, the LTTE’s political advisor and theoretician commenting on the current political developments in Colombo. (09 February 2004)- (www.tamilnet.com) • While attacking President Chandrika Kumaratunga's dissolution of parliament as selfish, narrow-minded and undemocratic, the government charged today that the President had also delayed the appointment of the Independent Elections Commission, which would have ensured free and fair polls. (09 February 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 10 February 2004) • The CWC - a key player in forming governments - said today it would contest the forthcoming general elections by entering into an alliance with any party that accepted three demands put forward by it. (09 February 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 10 February 2004) • Rejecting any alliances, The Sihala Urumaya said today, it would go solo at the snap general election with the aim of brining what it describes as a genuine Sinhala Voice to Parliament. (10 February 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 11 February 2004) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga has removed 39 non-Cabinet and deputy ministers ahead of Parliamentary elections on April 2, a spokesman for her office said. (11 February 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 12 February 2004) • The Up-country People's Front today decided to contest the forthcoming general election on the UNF ticket in the districts of Kandy, Kegalle, Puttalam, Colombo and Badulla, a spokesman said. (11 February 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 12 February 2004) • An SLFP group yesterday urged President Chandrika Kumaratunga to ensure that due action was taken against 17 UNF ministers and top officials over corruption charges. (12 February 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 13 February 2004) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga Addressing the Mahara electorate SLFP convention, today called upon the people to either give her party or the UNF a "clear and massive" mandate in the upcoming elections as she found it impossible to cohabitate with the Prime Minister. The President said. (15 February 2004)- (Daily Mirror on 16 February 2004) • The Jathika Sangha Sammelenaya today announced it would support the United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) at the forthcoming elections, if President Chandrika Kumaratunga and the Alliance gave a written assurance accepting the conditions of the monks as laid down in their 'Viharamaha Devi Sammuthiya'. (16 February 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 17 February 2004) • In what is widely seen as a turning point in the general election campaign, the Sihala Urumaya, which is now known as the Jathika Hela Urumaya, announced today it had decided to field more than 260 Buddhist monks including several leading Buddhist prelates, to contest on its conch symbol. (17 February 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 18 February 2004) • The LTTE today called on the Tamil people to vote for the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) at the snap general election on April 2. (17 February 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 18 February 2004) • Sri Lanka’s Commissioner of Elections said today he won’t allow polling booths in areas held by the LTTE where more than two hundred thousand Tamil voters live. (18 February 2004)-(www.tamilnet.com) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga today assured that a future government under her leadership would not push the LTTE back to war as the groundwork has already been laid to start talks with the LTTE. (18 February 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 19 February 2004) Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004

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• With the internationally-monitored ceasefire agreement between the Sri Lankan government and the LTTE having completed two years, the LTTE have said that they are not prepared to renegotiate the existing truce agreement even after April 2 general elections. (22 February 2004)-(www.dawn.com) • Sri Lanka today marks the second anniversary of a truce with LTTE. (23 February 2004)- (AFP/www.theacademic.org) • The Jaffna District Humanitarian Agencies Consortium (JDHAC) today handed over a memorandum to the head of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) in Jaffna stating that normalcy has not returned to the lives of several thousand Tamil people including internally displaced in the peninsula even after two years of ceasefire, civil society sources said. (22 February 2004)-(www.tamilnet.com) • President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga will lead the main opposition’s United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) at the April 2 parliamentary elections with a four-point popular mandate (Peace, Electoral Reforms, abolition of Executive Presidency and Market oriented economy) being her victory call. (22 February 2004)-(The Sunday Observer) • The Mahanayaka Theras of the Malwatta and the Asgiriya Chapters of the Siyam Maha Nikaya have out rightly disapproved a decision taken by a group of Buddhist monks representing the Jathika Hela Urumaya party to contest the forthcoming general election. (22 February 2004)-(www.theacademic.org) • "We openly state that the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) is contesting the forthcoming general election on behalf of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)," said Tamil National Alliance lead candidate in Trincomalee district, R. Sampanthan. (23 February 2004)-(www.tamilnet.com) • Sri Lanka's Jaffna library, a cultural icon for the country's minority Tamil community, quietly reopened to students today, more than two decades after it was gutted in an act of ethnic violence. (23 February 2004)-(Reuters) • A group of Buddhist monks has started a protest fast today in front of the residence of Jathika Hela Urumaya’s Leader, Tilak Karunaratne at Thimbirigasaya, against the Buddhist monks contesting the forthcoming general election. (24 February 2004)-(www.lankapage.com) • In a stringent move to curtail politicians from abusing state resources for election campaigning, Treasury Secretary Charitha Ratwatte today issued a circular to all heads of state media institutions and the Commander of the Sri Lanka Air Force that no services on credit should be extended for political propaganda activities from the date of nominations. (25 February 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 27 February 2004) • Finance Minister, K. N. Choksy today said the Commissioner of elections had the constitutional authority to compel the Sri Lanka Rupavahini Corporation and the Sri Lanka Broadcasting Corporation to observe the guidelines issued by him in respect of political broadcasts. (25 February 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 27 February 2004) • A Muslim group in Jaffna called the Jaffna Muslims Peace Consortium has expressed full support for the LTTE and the peace process. "We accept the LTTE leader Velupillai Prabahakaran as our leader. We are not in a position to accept SLMC leader Rauf Hakeem," said Al Aleem Marleen, president of the Jaffna Muslims peace consortium. (27 February 2004)-(www.tamilnet.com & Daily Mirror on 28 February 2004)

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FINDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CONDUCTED FROM 16TH FEBRUARY 2004 TO 29TH FEBRUARY 2004

♦ 22.6% state that since the ceasefire, their quality of life has improved, while 26.2% state that it has got worse. A majority (45.8%) state that since the ceasefire, their quality of life is about the same and this opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala community (49%). A marginal 5.4% don’t know or are unsure about their quality of life. Looking at the ethnic perspective, a majority of the Tamil (67.3%) and Up-country Tamil (50.9%) communities state that since the ceasefire their quality of life has improved. The Muslim community, however, has a divided opinion in this regard (Has improved – 42.7%, Is about the same – 38.6%). It is important to note that 28.7% of the Sinhala community state that their quality of life has got worse. (Ref. Page 12)

♦ 30.1% believe that since the ceasefire, the quality of life for most Sri Lankans has improved. This opinion stems from a majority of the Tamil (76.2%), Muslim (61.6%) and Up-country Tamil (56.3%) communities. However, 28.2% are of the view that the quality of life for most Sri Lankans has got worse, while 26.7% believe that it is about the same. 15.1% don’t know or are unsure as to the quality of life for most Sri Lankans. The Sinhala community has a divided opinion in this regard (Has got worse – 31.7%, Is about the same – 29.1%, Has improved – 23%). (Ref. Page 13)

♦ A majority (65.2%) of Sri Lankans don’t know or are unsure as to when there will be peace in Sri Lanka and this opinion stems mainly from a majority of the Sinhala (69.6%), Tamil (39.4%) and Muslim (51.5%) communities. While 13.9% believe that peace in Sri Lanka will take some time, 11.3% believe that there will never be peace in Sri Lanka. 9.7% believe that peace will come soon. (Ref. Page 14)

♦ 83.9% of Sri Lankans continue to believe that Peace Talks is the way to end the war and have peace in Sri Lanka, which is a slight decline since November 2003 (88.4%). (Ref. Page 15)

♦ There is a continuous belief that the lack of political will (45.5%) and corrupt military and political leaders (40.4%) are the reasons why there hasn’t been a solution to the war for the last 15 years. Within the Muslim community there is a decline in the belief that corrupt military and political leaders are the reason why there hasn’t been a solution (November 2003 - 48.5%, February 2004 – 25.2%). (Ref. Page 16)

♦ Overall, Sri Lankans have a 42.3% level of confidence in the peace process. Looking at the ethnic communities, the Tamil community has the highest level of confidence (55.9%) in the peace process, while the Muslim (48.3%) and Up-country Tamil (49.1%) communities follow close behind. The Sinhala community has the lowest level of confidence in the peace process (40.4%). (Ref. Page 17)

♦ 43.5% of Sri Lankans believe that the Government is committed to find peace through talks, which is a slight decline since November 2003 (48.4%). The ethnic perspective

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shows that a majority of the Sinhala (42.2%), Tamil (41.9%), Muslim (61.3%) and Up- country Tamil (45.5%) communities believe the same. (Ref. Page 18)

♦ 40.2% disagree with the statement that the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks, which is a slight increase from 37.8% in November 2003. This slight increase in opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala community (November 2003 – 43.5%, February 2004 – 45.7%). The ethnic perspective reveals that a majority of the Tamil (75.9%), Muslim (39.8%) and Up-country Tamil (59.6%) communities believe that the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks. (Ref. Page 19)

♦ A majority (38.2%) continues to believe that the Government goes in for talks due to its commitment to peace, a slight decline since November 2003 (40.8%). 26.4% of Sri Lankans also believe that the realisation that this war cannot be won is the reason the Government goes in for talks. Looking at the ethnic perspective, a majority of the Sinhala (39.1%) and Up-country Tamil (54.9%) communities believe that the Government goes in for talks due to its commitment to peace. However, a majority (54.4%) of the Muslim community believes it is Economic Hardship that makes the Government go in for talks. The Tamil community has a divided opinion in this regard (Commitment to peace – 24.4%, Economic hardship – 20.4%, International pressure – 25.2%, Realisation that this war cannot be won – 20.9%). (Ref. Page 20)

♦ 29.4% believe that the LTTE goes in for talks due to the realisation that this was cannot be won, which is a decline from 32.5% in November 2003. However, 27.9% believe that the LTTE goes in for talks to fool the people. This is a decline since November 2003 (34%). 18.4% believe that the commitment to peace is the reason the LTTE goes in for talks, an increase from 12.2% in November 2003. (Ref. Page 21)

♦ A majority (24.6%) believes in the widest range of involvement in negotiations, while 15.9% believe that only the Government and the LTTE should be involved. Looking at the ethnic perspective, 63.7% of the Muslim community believe in the widest range of involvement, which is an increase from 49.5% in November 2003. A majority (28.6%) of the Tamil community believes that only the Government and the LTTE should be involved in negotiations, an increase since November 2003 (11.9%), while 24.1% believe in the widest range of involvement in negotiations. (Ref. Page 22)

♦ 52.2% of Sri Lankans believe that an international third party’s involvement will have a positive impact or is essential in the peace process. In contrast, 21.7% believe that an international third party’s involvement is not essential. Furthermore, a majority of the Tamil (79.5%), Muslim (68.6%) and Up-country Tamil (41.6%) communities believe that an international third party’s involvement is essential. 21.1% of the Sinhala community believe the same. (Ref. Page 23)

♦ It is revealed in the results that Sri Lankans have a divided opinion with regard to Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan peace process (Approve – 31.9%, Disapprove – 33.7%). While a majority (38.7%) of the Sinhala community disapproves of Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan peace process, a majority of the Tamil (90.3%), Muslim (66.2%) and Up-country Tamil (57.2%) communities approve of this. (Ref. Page 24)

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♦ There is a divided opinion with regard to Norway continuing to facilitate talks (Approve – 29.8%, Disapprove – 33.7%). The ethnic perspective reveals that a majority of the Tamil (88.3%), Muslim (57.3%) and Up-country Tamil (56%) communities approve of Norway continuing to facilitate talks. It is important to note that there is a significant increase in the Muslim community’s approval, from 35% in November 2003 to 57.3% in February 2004. Contrary to this, a majority (38.3%) of the Sinhala community disapproves of Norway continuing to facilitate talks. (Ref. Page 25)

♦ 53% of Sri Lankans believe that India’s involvement in the Sri Lankan peace process will have a positive impact or is essential. On the contrary, 19% believe that India’s involvement is not essential. The ethnic perspective reveals that a majority of the Tamil (59.5%), Muslim (68.2%) and Up-country Tamil (60.3%) communities believe that India’s involvement is essential, while a majority of the Sinhala community (32.5%) believes that India’s involvement will have a positive impact on the Sri Lankan peace process. (Ref. Page 26)

♦ Of those who are aware of the involvement of foreign monitors in monitoring the ceasefire, 31.7% believe such a monitoring mission will have a positive impact on the success of the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA). Looking at the ethnic perspective, a majority of the Sinhala community (34.6%) believes the same, while a majority of the Tamil (83.7%), Muslim (67.4%) and Up-country Tamil (44.3%) communities believe that such a monitoring mission is essential. (Ref. Page 27)

♦ 36.4% of Sri Lankans believe that the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) is not impartial in its monitoring of the CFA. This opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala community (40.6%). Looking at the other ethnic communities, a majority of the Tamil (70.5%), Muslim (46.8%) and Up-country Tamil (38.9%) communities believe the SLMM is impartial in its monitoring of the CFA. It is important to note that the Muslim community’s opinion has significantly increased from 23.8% in November 2003 to 46.8% in February 2004. (Ref. Page 28)

♦ A majority (35.1%) believe that the SLMM is not effective in its monitoring of the CFA and this opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala community (38.6%). A majority of the Tamil (69.5%), Muslim (46.6%) and Up-country Tamil (46.3%) communities believe that the SLMM is effective in its monitoring of the CFA. Looking at the Muslim community’s opinion, specifically, there is a significant increase in the belief that the SLMM is effective in its monitoring of the CFA since November 2003 (17%). (Ref. Page 29)

♦ When asked whether they believe that federalism is the best way of governing this country, a significant 57.3% were unable to respond, which is an increase from 22.3% in November 2003. This increase in opinion stems from the increase in the opinion of all the ethnic communities, Sinhala (November 2003 - 24.9%, February 2004 - 59.3%), Tamil (November 2003 - 16.2%, February 2004 - 45.8%), Muslim (November 2003 - 4.8%, February 2004 - 31.8%) and Up-country Tamil (November 2003 - 6.7%, February 2004 - 73.6%). However, a majority of the Muslim community (50.7%) believes that federalism is the best way of governing this country. (Ref. Page 30)

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♦ 57.2% of Sri Lankans are unable to respond as to whether federalism will lead to secession. This opinion stems from a majority of the Sinhala (58.8%), Tamil (47.5%), Muslim (36.6%) and Up-country Tamil (71.8%) communities. There is a significant decline in the opinion that federalism will lead to secession (November 2003 – 32.3%, February 2004 – 15.8%) and this decline in opinion stems from the decline in the opinion within the Sinhala community (November 2003 – 38.1%, February 2004 – 16.2%). (Ref. Page 31)

♦ A majority (60.6%) is unable to respond whether federalism will be fair by every community, a significant increase since November 2003 (25.5%). This increase in opinion stems from the increase in the opinion of all the ethnic communities, Sinhala (November 2003 - 27.6%, February 2004 - 62.8%), Tamil (November 2003 - 15.8%, February 2004 - 49.4%), Muslim (November 2003 – 10.4%, February 2004 – 35.4%) and Up-country Tamil (November 2003 – 22.9%, February 2004 – 70.6%). However, a majority (46.9%) of the Muslim community and 40.9% of the Tamil community believe that federalism will be fair by every community. (Ref. Page 32)

♦ When asked whether they would agree with federalism if it approved by a majority of Sri Lankans, 42.6% are unable to respond. This is an increase since November 2003 (20%). Looking at the ethnic perspective, a majority of the Sinhala (44.6%) and Tamil (46.9%) communities don’t know whether they would agree with federalism if it is approved by a majority of Sri Lankans. However, a majority (69.1%) of the Muslim community agrees with the statement. (Ref. Page 33)

♦ A majority (49.3%) believes that the people are not being adequately informed about federalism. This opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala (51%), Muslim (45.2%) and Up- country Tamil (55%) communities. In comparison, 37.6% are uncertain whether people are being adequately informed about federalism. This is an increase from 15.4% in November 2003. (Ref. Page 34)

♦ Of the 93.2% who are aware that the SLFP and JVP signed a MoU on the 20th of January 2004, forming an alliance, 37% believe that this new alliance will have a positive impact on the country. This opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala community (42.4%). In contrast, 35.6% are uncertain about the impact of this new alliance on the country. In addition, 22.3% believe that this will have a negative impact on the country. This opinion stems mainly from the Tamil (76.3%), Muslim (47.4%) and Up-country Tamil (60.4%) communities. (Ref. Page 35)

♦ Of those who are aware that the SLFP and JVP signed a MoU on the 20th of January 2004, forming an alliance, 38.5% are uncertain about the impact of this new alliance on the peace process, in comparison to 31.3% who believe it will have a positive impact on the peace process. 22.6% believe that this new alliance will have a negative impact on the peace process. This opinion stems mainly from the Tamil (73.7%), Muslim (50.4%) and Up-country Tamil (61.8%) communities. (Ref. Page 36)

♦ Of the 80.2% who are aware of the allegations against Christian churches of “unethical conversions”, 70.4% believe these allegations, while 18.7% do not believe them. Looking

Peace Confidence Index Page 10 Top-Line Results

at the ethnic perspective, a majority of the Sinhala (71.9%), Tamil (57.3%), Muslim (70.2%) and Up-country Tamil (53.8%) communities believe these allegations. (Ref. Page 38)

♦ Of those who are aware of the allegations against Christian churches of “unethical conversions”, a majority (72.3%) believes that there is a problem of “unethical conversions”. However, 19.4% do not believe that there is a problem. Looking at the ethnic perspective, while a majority of the Sinhala (75.5%), Tamil (52.5%) and Muslim (66.7%) communities believe that there is a problem, a majority of the Up-country Tamil community (63.4%) do not believe there is a problem. It is important to note that there is a significant percentage of the Tamil community (42.2%) who do not believe that there is a problem of “unethical conversions”. (Ref. Page 39)

♦ Of those who agree that there is a problem of “unethical conversions”, a significant 88.9% believe that something should be done about it. (Ref. Page 40)

♦ Of the 50.7% who are aware of the proposed legislation to prevent “unethical conversions, 73.3% approve of this proposed legislation in comparison to 14.9% who disapprove. Looking at the ethnic perspective, a majority of the Sinhala (74.9%), Tamil (58.9%), Muslim (66.5%) and Up-country Tamil (57.9%) communities approve of this proposed legislation. However, it is important to note that a significant proportion of the Tamil (38.5%), Muslim (23.9%) and Up-country Tamil (22%) communities disapprove of this proposed legislation. (Ref. Page 42)

♦ Looking at the religious breakdown of those who are aware of the proposed legislation to prevent “unethical conversions, a majority of those who practice Buddhism (82%), Hinduism (65.1%) and Islam (65.6%) approve of this proposed legislation, while a majority of those who practice Christianity (Roman Catholic) (42.1%) and Christianity (Non-Roman Catholic) (73.4%) disapprove of this proposed legislation. (Ref. Page 43)

♦ Of the 64.5% who are aware of the recent attacks on Christian places of worship, 39.2% don’t know or are unsure whether the President has taken effective action to deal with these attacks. However, while 34.2% believe she has taken effective action, 26.6% do not believe she has taken effective action to deal with these attacks. Looking at the ethnic perspective, a majority of the Tamil (75.8%) and Up-country Tamil (54.7%) communities do not believe that the President has taken effective action to deal with these attacks. Within the Sinhala community, however, 42% don’t know or are unsure whether she has taken effective action, while 37% believe she has taken effective action. The Muslim community has a divided opinion in this regard (Yes – 36.4%, No – 31%, Don’t know/Not sure – 32.7%). (Ref. Page 45)

♦ Of those who are aware of the recent attacks on Christian places of worship, 49% don’t know or are unsure whether the Prime Minister has taken effective action to deal with these attacks. However, 27.7% do not believe that he has taken effective action, while 23.3% believe that he has taken effective action to deal with these attacks. A majority of the Tamil (64.8%) and Up-country Tamil (53.4%) communities do not believe that the Prime Minister has taken effective action to deal with these attacks, while a majority of

Peace Confidence Index Page 11 Top-Line Results

the Sinhala community (53.3%) don’t know or are unsure. The Muslim community, however, has a divided opinion in this regard (Yes – 37.7%, Don’t know/Not sure – 39%). (Ref. Page 46)

♦ Of those who are aware of the recent attacks on Christian places of worship, 44.8% are uncertain whether the Inspector General of Police (IGP) has taken effective action to deal with these attacks. 32.7% believe that he has taken effective action, while 22.5% do not believe so. Looking at the ethnic perspective a majority of the Sinhala (47.5%) and Up-country Tamil (53.1%) communities are uncertain whether he has taken effective action. A majority of the Tamil community (71.3%) do not believe that he has taken effective action, while a majority of the Muslim community (50.6%) believes that he has taken effective action to deal with these attacks. (Ref. Page 47)

♦ Of the 98% who are aware of the dissolution of parliament on the 7th of February 2004 and the decision to hold elections on the 2nd of April 2004, 48.5% are uncertain about the impact of a general election on the peace process. However, 24% believe that a general election will have a positive impact on the peace process, while 16.9% believe that it will have a negative impact. 10.6% believe that it will have no impact on the peace process. (Ref. Page 48)

For further information please contact:

Reshma Harjani or Pradeep Peiris

Social Indicator

Centre for Policy Alternatives

105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.

Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: [email protected] Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org

Page 12 Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results

PEACE CONFIDENCE INDEX (PCI)

MAY 2001 – FEBRUARY 2004

CONFIDENCE IN PEACE

Since the ceasefire, would you say your quality of life …

National Breakdown

5.4 22.6 Has improved 26.2 Is about the same Has got worse Don't know/Not sure

45.8

Ethnic Breakdown

5.4 26.2 National 45.8 22.6 8.1 Up-country 20.6 Tamil 20.4 50.9 Don't know/Not sure 1.1 Has got worse 17.5 Is about the same Muslim 38.6 42.7 Has improved 0.8 4.9 Tamil 27 67.3 5.9 28.7 Sinhala 49 16.4 0 102030405060708090100 %

Since the ceasefire, do you think the quality of life for most Sri Lankans …

National Breakdown

15.1 30.1 Has improved Is about the same Has got worse Don't know/Not sure 28.2

26.7

Ethnic Breakdown

15.1 28.2 National 26.7 30.1 15.9 11.1 Up-country Tamil 16.7 56.3 Don't know/Not sure Has got worse 7.2 14.7 Is about the same Muslim 16.6 Has improved 61.6

6.1 6.7 Tamil 11 76.2

16.2 31.7 Sinhala 29.1 23 0 102030405060708090100 %

When do you think there will be peace in Sri Lanka?

National Breakdown

9.7 13.9 Soon Will take some time Never Don't know

11.3 65.2

Ethnic Breakdown

65.2 11.3 National 13.9 9.7

34.1 8 Up-country Tamil 23.9 34.1 Don't know 51.5 Never 8.3 Will take some time Muslim 30.3 Soon 9.9 39.4 11 Tamil 24.4 25.2

69.6 11.7 Sinhala 11.4 7.3

0 102030405060708090100 %

SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT

How do you think we can end the war and have peace in Sri Lanka? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

100 87.2 86 86.7 88.4 90 85 84.4 83.7 87.4 84.6 80.7 83.7 81.9 83.9 80 71.3 71.9 68.6 Government 70 defeating the 59.1 LTTE 60

% 50 LTTE defeating the Government 40 30 24.4 18 20 19.9 Peace talks 20 9.9 10.1 11.1 7.6 7 7.2 10.4 9.1 10 6.5 7 6.8 1.3 0.8 1 5.5 5 0.9 0.8 0.6 1.1 0.8 1 1.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 0 May '01 November May '02 November May '03 November '01 '02 '03

Ethnic Breakdown

94 Up-country Tamil 0.5 0

89.5

Muslim 1.9 Peace talks 0.9

LTTE defeating the 92.5 Government Tamil 1.3 Government defeating the 1.2 LTTE

82.4 Sinhala 0.1 5.8

0 102030405060708090100 %

Why do you think there hasn’t been a solution to the war for the last 15 odd years? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

50 46.2 44.2 44 44 44.2 42.8 44.2 45.5 41.8 41.4 39.1 39.4 40.5 Corrupt military 40.4 and political 40 37.3 36.737.1 41.4 34.8 leaders 34.1 38.5 34.2 33.4 37.9 34.8 35 33.1 No political will 32.7 30 30.9 31.8 32.5 30.1 30.3 30.6 30.2 % 25.8 24.5 20.3 19.5 19.1 LTTE does not 20 22.2 17.6 21.2 20.7 want peace 15.7 18.5 18.6 18.2 14 13.1 14.8 10.6 11.3 10 8.5 War is necessary 7.6 9.3 10.6 10.5 7.5 4.8 7 for people in 8.6 power 7.3 6.5 7 0 4.8 6.5 0 May '01 November May '02 November May '03 November '01 '02 '03

Ethnic Breakdown

33.5 18.3 3.2 Up-country Tamil 1.2 45.4 22.6 Don't know

27.9 19.2 War is necessary for 4.9 Muslim people in power 10 37.9 LTTE does not want peace 25.2 11.4 The strength of the LTTE 6.9 1.2 Tamil 0.5 No political will 39 26.5 Corrupt military and political 22 leaders 14.9 7.8 Sinhala 4.9 46.6 43.5

0 1020304050 %

How confident are you in the peace process?

Ethnic Breakdown

National 42.3

Up-country Tamil 49.1

Muslim 48.3

Tamil 55.9

Sinhala 40.4

0 102030405060 %

CONFIDENCE

I think the Government is committed to find peace through talks.

National Trend

80 69.8 70.2 70 63.7 61.8 58 59.4 60 56.7 53 53.9 50.2 50.1 48.4 50 43.844 48 44 43.5 Agree % 40 31.4 30.3 Disagree 30 23.8 24.5 24 23 22.5 22.5 21.6 20 15.1 20.9 11.9 12 19.1 9.8 9.1 18.6 10

0 May '01 November '01 May '02 November '02 May '03 November '03

Ethnic Breakdown

18.8 Up-country Tamil 17.6

45.5

20.5 Disagree Muslim 7.6 61.3 Neither agree nor disagree 25 Agree Tamil 13.4 41.9

23.3

Sinhala 21.4 42.2

0 10203040506070 %

I think the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks.

National Trend

80 68.5 70 63.5

60 53.2 50.6 47.2 50.3 50 45.7 45.7 44.9 42.7 39.5 39.8 38.9 37.8 % 40 38.2 40.2 32.9 Agree 30 Disagree 28.3 29.3 29 20.5 22.5 17.3 27.3 27.5 18.2 20 15.8 25.7 25.7 21.4 12.9 22.2 9.8 19.7 10

0 May '01 September January '02 May '02 September January '03 May '03 September February '01 '02 '03 '04

Ethnic Breakdown

4.2 Up-country Tamil 13.4 59.6

23.1 Muslim 12.9 Disagree 39.8 Neither agree nor 8.2 disagree Tamil 3.5 Agree 75.9

45.7 Sinhala 20.3 14

0 1020304050607080 %

Why do you think that the Government goes in for talks? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

60 Commitment to peace 50 48.8 45.3 44.6 42.1 Economic hardship 41.7 40.8 39 39.5 38.3 38.2 40 35.8 38.3 38 36.8 40.2 35.5 33.232.432.5 International 37.5 28.9 29.9 29 34.6 pressure 30 33.4 27 28.6 27.2 29.2 28.1 % 24.1 24.1 23.8 26.4 29.6 24.5 28.9 22.4 22.8 Realisation that this 19.9 19.8 19.5 18.6 24.1 24.6 21.3 war cannot be won 20 18 17.2 20.7 19.7 17.6 20.1 20.3 12.4 14.1 12.9 13.1 18.2 16.6 15.9 16.2 12.2 10 To fool the people 14.5 15.5 9.7 10.3 10 11.9 8 10.3 10.6 10.9 11 11.210.3 10.6 9 9.5 8.4 8.87.1 7.1 7.4 6.6 4.5 5.2 2.1 2.8 Lack of manpower 4.2 3.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 4.6 2.9 0 3.2 June '01 January '02 July '02 January '03 July '03 February '04

Ethnic Breakdown

7.9 4.3 25.6 Up-country Tamil 6.1 31.1 Lack of manpower 54.9

4.8 4.9 To fool the people 33.4 Muslim 41.1 54.4 29.2 Realisation that this war cannot be won 6.3 6 20.9 International pressure Tamil 25.2 20.4 24.4 Economic hardship 2.2 18.1 26.4 Sinhala 5.5 Commitment to peace 18.3 39.1 0 102030405060 %

Why do you think that the LTTE goes in for talks? [Multiple Answers]

Natiomal Trend

50 44.9 Commitment to peace 40 37.3 34.6 35.3 34 Economic hardship 31.3 31.5 30.8 30.8 28.7 28.5 29.1 30 32.5 29.4 27.9 27.7 International pressure 27.3 25.1 27.4 27.9 % 29.1 24.7 25.6 25 24.3 26.6 22.4 24.5 23.9 21.9 23.4 22.5 23.2 18.7 20.4 20.5 18.5 22.1 Realisation that this 18.3 19.1 19 20.1 20 18.2 20 war cannot be won 15.4 16.9 20 18.4 16.7 18.6 16.1 16.7 19.2 17.9 15.2 14.9 15.913.9 18.114.6 16.1 15.7 13.9 16.5 14.612.9 15.3 15.4 14.9 15.5 12.2 To fool the people 12.3 14.6 13.214.5 11 12.4 13.8 12.8 14.4 13.1 12.8 12.2 11.6 10 8.9 12.5 12.4 12.6 11.9 10.2 10.3 10.4 9.4 9.1 8.5 Lack of manpower 6.6 0 June '01 January '02 July '02 January '03 July '03 February '04

Ethnic Breakdown

2 4.1 31.6 Up-country Tamil 7 19.8 55.2 Lack of manpower 30.7 4.4 45.5 To fool the people Muslim 31.9 42.2 22.8 Realisation that this war cannot be won 2.6 1.8 International pressure 7.1 Tamil 15.4 Economic hardship 13.5 51 Commitment to peace 8.3 32.8 29.7 Sinhala 14.6 8.7 13.8

0 102030405060 %

THE PEACE PROCESS

Who should be involved in negotiations?

National Trend

40 36.7 Govt. and LTTE only 33.9 32.1 30 31.3 25.8 27 25.1 26.7 24.6 25.1 Govt.,LTTE and 21.9 23 23 21.7 22 International third 21.6 19.9 20.3 23.3 party only % 20 19 18.3 16.2 19.1 15.9 16.4 18.6 15.114.2 15.9 Govt., Opposition, 17.2 13.9 12.4 12.1 16.6 16.4 12.5 15.5 15.5 11 LTTE,Tamil, Muslim 13.5 14 12.9 9.8 9.5 9.3 11.6 parties and a third 10 6.6 party 9.5 6.8 10.2 4.3 4 4.8 6.3 No peace talks 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.4 1 1.5 0.9 1.3 1.2 2.2 0 May '01 November '01 May '02 November '02 May '03 November '03

Ethnic Breakdown

12.8 0 Don't know 17.2 10.3 Up-country Tamil 5.2 7.3 4.7 No peace talks 17.1 5.7 0 63.7 Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil, 20 Muslim parties and a third party Muslim0 0 0.9 Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil 3.7 and Muslim parties only 11.8 0 24.1 Govt., Opposition, LTTE, Tamil 7 parties and a third party Tamil 3.6 3 20.4 28.6 Govt., Opposition, LTTE and other Tamil parties only 15.6 2.6 22 Govt.,LTTE and International 12.1 Sinhala 7.2 third party only 4.3 5.8 15.8 Govt. and LTTE only

0 10203040506070 %

INTERNATIONAL THIRD PARTY FACILITATION

What is your opinion of the need for an international third party’s involvement to solve the North East war in Sri Lanka?

National Trend

40 38 35.8 32.6 32.5 32.5 30.9 31.9 32.1 30.7 30.2 30.6 29.8 30.5 30.3 Is essential 30 28.9 31.7 26.2 28.6 29 29 29.3 24.2 28.8 29 28.6 29.2 Will add a positive impact 26.1 21.8 20.9 23.6 19.5 19.2 19.8 21.7 Will have no impact % 20 16.7 17.9 16.8 16.5 16.2 14.2 14.5 Will add a negative 16 13.2 impact 14.213.1 9.9 11.3 10.5 10.2 9.9 12.6 Is not essential 10 9.6 10.39.6 9.5 10 9.6 10 11.3 11.6 9.9 10.2 9.2 Don't know/Not sure 5.4 5.7 5.4 4.3 3.7 3.7 3.22.1 2.8 5.4 4.6 4.2 1.4 1.4 1.6 0.9 2.4 0.7 0.9 1 2.1 0 1.4 1.7 September '01 March '02 September '02 March '03 September '03

Ethnic Breakdown

13.3 2.3 Up-country Tamil 2.6 1.9 9.4 41.6 8.3 10.8 Don't know/Not sure Muslim 1.8 0.8 Is not essential 8.4 68.6 Will add a negative impact 6.5 7.8 2.3 Will have no impact Tamil 0.1 3.1 Will add a positive impact 79.5 13.3 Is essential 24.5 4.6 Sinhala 2.8 27 21.1

0 102030405060708090 %

NORWEGIAN FACILITATION

Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan peace process

National Trend

60 53.8 50.7 50 46.3 42.4 42.7 42.3 43.3 38 Approve 40 37 34.6 36 32.8 33.7 Neither approve % 28.2 29.8 33 30 31.9 nor disapprove 24.5 29.5 31.1 22.4 23 22.7 23.1 20.5 20.5 23.1 19.4 19.3 Disapprove 20 22.8 21.8 22.6 18 22.1 21 21.1 18.7 18 17.9 15.5 14.6 11 Don't know/Not 10 13.6 12.8 11.8 13.4 10.2 11.1 10.8 sure 9.1 7.8 8.8 0 January '02 July' 02 January '03 July '03 February '04

Ethnic Breakdown

28.8 5.3 Up-country Tamil 8.5 57.2

13 Don't know/Not sure 17 Muslim 3.7 66.2 Disapprove 6 2.3 Tamil Neither approve nor 1.1 disapprove 90.3 Approve 24.8 38.7 Sinhala 12.4 23.7

0 102030405060708090100 %

Norway continuing to facilitate talks.

National Trend

50 44.1 42.6 38.7 40 38.2 41.3 33.8 32.2 32 Approve 33.7 29.4 30 26.9 32 31.9 29.8 Neither approve % 28.9 nor disapprove 22.6 23.3 22.2 20.9 21.3 24.4 19.7 19.9 Disapprove 20 23.2 21.8 21.8 21.8 Don't know/Not 11.9 13.2 sure 13.8 13.4 15.7 11.8 10 13.6 12.4 10.7

0 September '02 January '03 May '03 September '03 February '04

Ethnic Breakdown

28.5 4.8 Up-country Tamil 10 56

14.5 20.6 Muslim 6.8 Don't know/Not sure 57.3 Disapprove 6 4.3 Tamil Neither approve nor 1.1 disapprove 88.3 Approve

26.3 38.3 Sinhala 13 22

0 102030405060708090100 %

INDIA’S INVOLVEMENT

What is your opinion of the need for India’s involvement in the Sri Lankan peace process?

National Trend

Is essential

40 35.9 39.6 35.5 33.8 Will add a positive 31.7 32.7 31.2 30.4 impact 28.2 30 27 27.9 Will have no % 24.6 27.5 27.4 impact 26.1 26.6 20.8 24.8 22.3 19.2 18.6 17.9 19.1 Will add a 20 16.2 16.4 17.4 15.6 15.9 19 negative impact 14.9 16.8 15.8 16.1 13.6 12.7 14.3 16.2 Is not essential 13.1 13.5 13 12.4 12.9 12.8 10 12.5 7.1 5.9 9.2 5.6 5.3 6.1 5.7 5 4.9 3.5 8.4 Don't know/Not 2.7 2.1 1.9 1.3 1.6 1.6 2.5 sure 1.2 3 2 0 1.7 May '02 September '02 January '03 May '03 September '03 February '04

Ethnic Breakdown

9.9 5.6 3.7 Up-country Tamil 3.6 6.8 60.3 Don't know/Not sure 9.4 8.3 2.1 Is not essential Muslim 1.6 8.9 68.2 Will add a negative 10 impact 10.3 8.6 Will have no impact Tamil 6.3 4.4 59.5 Will add a positive impact 17.4 21.1 Is essential 4.9 Sinhala 2.2 32.5 17.2

0 1020304050607080 %

RECENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION

If you are aware of the involvement of foreign monitors in monitoring the ceasefire, what is your opinion of the need for such a monitoring mission for the ceasefire agreement to succeed?

National Trend

50 Is essential 43 41.5 43.5 39.4 39.3 40.5 37.9 37.5 40 Will have a positive 33.6 33.2 impact 31.2 32 29.7 31.7 30 29 Will have no impact 26.7 26.3 26.7 27.2 25.3 29.4 % 26.6 25.4 24.8 Will have a negative 20 impact 15.8 13.2 16.7 12.1 10.3 Is not essential 8.4 9.6 8.5 9.1 10 6.7 7.2 7.3 5.6 5.6 6.9 6.8 5.5 4.6 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.8 4.5 7.5 3.9 4.2 2.8 3.9 Will be a threat to the 4.2 1.9 4.1 3.8 4.1 3.7 2.8 1.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 0 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.1 sovereignty of Sri Lanka March '02 July '02 November March '03 July '03 November '02 '03

Ethnic Breakdown

0 3 Up-country0 Tamil 6.8 29.4 44.3 Will be a threat to the 0.9 sovereignty of Sri Lanka 5.3 2.4 Muslim 2.4 Is not essential 14.2 67.4 Will have a negative impact 0 1.2 0 Tamil 0.5 Will have no impact 9.7 83.7 Will have a positive impact 1.3 19.3 6.3 Is essential Sinhala 4.2 34.9 16.8 0 102030405060708090 %

I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement.

National Trend

50 43.6

40 37 35.5 36.4 Agree 31.7 33.2 32.8 32.1 29 31.3 30.3 30 27.4 27.1 33.1 26.8 27 Neither agree 30.1 26.9 24.4 28.9 27.6 nor disagree % 23.6 24.8 22.5 23.6 21.4 21.3 21.9 22.8 19.6 20 18.1 21.4 Disagree 15.7 19.2 19.6 18 18.9 18 17.8 17.4 17.2 14.4 14.6 11.3 Don't know/Not 10 sure

0 May '02 September '02 January '03 May '03 September '03 February '04

Ethnic Breakdown

35.8 1 Up-country Tamil 24.3 38.9 13.6 25.7 Muslim 13.9 Don't know/Not sure 46.8 Disagree 14.3 9.2 Tamil Neither agree nor disagree 5.8 70.5 Agree 29 40.6 Sinhala 11.1 18.9

0 1020304050607080 %

I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement.

National Trend

40.7 40 34.8 33 35.1 31.4 Agree 30.5 30.6 29.4 28.7 30 28 26.1 26 26 26.6 25.6 28.2 Neither agree % 24.3 24 29.4 22.8 nor disagree 21.3 21.1 23.5 23.8 25.7 22.8 24.8 19.7 Disagree 20 22.4 19.1 21.4 22.4 20.3 19.7 19.3 19.1 18.6 19.4 17.1 Don't know/Not 12.8 sure 10

0 July '02 November March '03 July '03 November '02 '03

Ethnic Breakdown

23.8 8.5 Up-country Tamil 21.4 46.3

15 24 Don't know/Not sure Muslim 14.2 46.6 Disagree 12.8 12.4 Tamil Neither agree nor 5.2 disagree 69.5 Agree 30.7 38.6 Sinhala 13.1 17.2

0 1020304050607080 %

FEDERAL SOLUTION

I believe federalism is the best way of governing this country.

National Trend

60 57.3 Agree 50 47 Neither agree nor 40 36.3 disagree % Disagree 29.1 30 23.1 22.3 No response 21.7 20 21.9 12.3 13.9 8 10 6.8 0 September '03 November '03 February '04

Ethnic Breakdown

73.6 9.8 Up-country Tamil 9.6 6.5 31.8 No response 9.1 Muslim 8.3 50.7 Disagree

45.8 Neither agree nor 5.2 Tamil disagree 2 46.9 Agree

59.3 24.5 Sinhala 6.9 9.1

0 1020304050607080 %

I think federalism will lead to secession.

National Trend

60 57.2

50 Agree 41.8 40 32.3 Neither agree nor disagree % 30 31.2 Disagree 27.5 20 24.7 No response 20.9 18.3 15.8

10 11.8 7.9 9.8

0 September '03 November '03 February '04

Ethnic Breakdown

71.8 9.4 Up-country Tamil 6.8 11.5

36.6 No response 33.4 Muslim 9.7 Disagree 20

47.5 Neither agree nor 35.4 disagree Tamil 7.2 Agree 9.3

58.8 16.3 Sinhala 7.8 16.2

0 1020304050607080 %

Federalism will be fair by every community.

National Trend

70 60.6 60

50 41.4 40 November '03 February '04 % 30 25.5 22.4 18.6 20

11.5 10.7 10 8.1

0 Agree Neither agree nor Disagree No response disagree

Ethnic Breakdown

70.6 10.9 Up-country Tamil 11.3 6.7

35.4 8 No response Muslim 9.2 46.9 Disagree

49.4 4.8 Neither agree nor Tamil disagree 4.1 40.9 Agree

62.8 20.8 Sinhala 8.1 6.9 0 1020304050607080 %

I agree with federalism if it is approved by a majority of Sri Lankans.

National Trend

42.6 40 37.6 37.7 Agree 33.8 30.7

30 Neither agree nor disagree 25.5 % 20 23 18.2 20 Disagree

13.4

8.4 No response 10 7.5

0 September '03 November '03 February '04

Ethnic Breakdown

25.7 30.9 Up-country Tamil 10.1 32.9 23.4 No response 4 Muslim 3 69.1 Disagree

46.9 7.6 Neither agree nor Tamil disagree 4 39.4 Agree

44.6 25.2 Sinhala 8 20.8

0 1020304050607080 %

I think people are being adequately informed about federalism.

National Trend

70 65.2 64.9

50 49.3 Agree

40 Neither agree nor % 37.6 disagree

30 Disagree

20 15.4 No response 13.2 12.6 10.6 10 6.1 5.9 9 9.2 0 September '03 November '03 February '04

Ethnic Breakdown

33.6 55 Up-country Tamil 6.1 4.8

34.5 45.2 No response Muslim 13.2 6.8 Disagree

48.6 Neither agree nor 26.9 Tamil disagree 9.1 14 Agree

37.2 51 Sinhala 5.4 5.3

0 102030405060 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 35 Top-Line Results

SLFP – JVP ALLIANCE

If you are aware that the SLFP and JVP signed a MoU on the 20th of January 2004, forming an alliance, what in your opinion will be the impact of this new alliance on the country?

National Breakdown

Will have a positive impact 35.6 37

Will have no impact

Will have a negative impact 5.2 22.3 Don't know/Not sure

Ethnic Breakdown

35.6 22.3 National 5.2 37 31 60.4 Up-country Tamil 5.2 Don't know/Not sure 3.5

28.1 Will have a negative Muslim 47.4 impact 13.2 11.4 Will have no impact 20.3 76.3 Tamil 0.9 Will have a positive 2.5 impact 37.4 15.2 Sinhala 4.9 42.4

0 102030405060708090 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 36 Top-Line Results

If you are aware that the SLFP and JVP signed a MoU on the 20th of January 2004, forming an alliance, what in your opinion will be the impact of this new alliance on the peace process?

National Breakdown

Will have a positive 31.3 38.5 impact Will have no impact

Will have a negative impact 7.6 Don't know/Not sure 22.6

Ethnic Breakdown

38.5 22.6 National 7.6 31.3 29.1 61.8 Up-country Tamil 3.6 Don't know/Not sure 5.5 27.4 Will have a negative 50.4 Muslim impact 11.5 10.6 Will have no impact

20.3 73.7 Will have a positive Tamil 2.5 impact 3.4

41 15.5 Sinhala 7.8 35.7

0 1020304050607080 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 37 Top-Line Results

UNETHICAL CONVERSIONS

Are you aware of the allegations against Christian churches of “unethical conversions”?

National Breakdown

19.8

Yes No

80.2

Ethnic Breakdown

19.8 National 80.2

36 Up-country Tamil 64

51.1 Muslim 48.9 No Yes 32.9 Tamil 67.1

15.7 Sinhala 84.3

0 102030405060708090 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 38 Top-Line Results

Please tell me do you believe these allegations?

National Breakdown

10.9

18.7 I believe them

I do not believe them

70.4 Don’t know/ Not sure

Ethnic Breakdown

10.9 National 18.7 70.4 9.7 Up-country Tamil 36.5 53.8 Don’t know/ Not sure 17.8 I do not believe them Muslim 12 70.2 I believe them 7.7 Tamil 35 57.3

10.8 Sinhala 17.3 71.9

0 1020304050607080

Peace Confidence Index Page 39 Top-Line Results

Is there a problem of “unethical conversions”?

National Breakdown

8.3 19.4 Yes No Don't know/Not sure

72.3

Ethnic Breakdown

8.3 National 19.4 72.3 10.3 Up-country Tamil 63.4 26.3 Don't know/Not sure 8.2 Muslim 25 66.7 No

5.3 Tamil 42.2 Yes 52.5

8.4 Sinhala 16.1 75.5

0 1020304050607080 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 40 Top-Line Results

If you agree that there is a problem of “unethical conversions”, do you think something should be done about it?

National Breakdown

4.3 6.9 Yes

No Don’t know/ Not sure

88.9

Ethnic Breakdown

6.9 National 4.3 88.9

15.4 Up-country Tamil 15.4 69.2 Don’t know/ Not sure

18.2 No Muslim 6.8 75 Yes 3.1 Tamil 20.5 76.4 6.6 Sinhala 3.2 90.2

0 102030405060708090100 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 41 Top-Line Results

Are you aware of a proposed legislation to prevent “unethical conversions”?

National Breakdown

49.3

Yes No

50.7

Ethnic Breakdown

49.3 National 50.7

69.4 Up-country Tamil 30.6

39.8 Muslim No 60.2 Yes

53.5 Tamil 46.6

48.7 Sinhala 51.3

0 1020304050607080 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 42 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of a proposed legislation to prevent “unethical conversions”, do you approve or disapprove of this proposed legislation?

National Breakdown

11.8 14.9 Approve

Disapprove

73.3 Don't know/Not sure

Ethnic Breakdown

11.8 National 14.9 73.3

20.1 Up-country Tamil 22 57.9 Don't know/Not 9.6 sure Muslim 23.9 66.5 Disapprove 2.6 Tamil 38.5 Approve 58.9

12.2 Sinhala 12.9 74.9

0 1020304050607080 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 43 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of a proposed legislation to prevent “unethical conversions”, do you approve or disapprove of this proposed legislation?

Religious Breakdown

3.7 Christianity (Non-RC) 73.4 22.9

26.9 Christianity (RC) 42.1 31

8.7 Don't know/Not Islam 25.6 sure 65.6 Disapprove 3.7

Hinduism 31.2 Approve 65.1

10.8 Buddhism 7.3 82

0 102030405060708090 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 44 Top-Line Results

ATTACKS ON CHURCHES

Are you aware of the recent attacks on Christian places of worship?

National Breakdown

64.5 Yes No

35.5

Ethnic Breakdown

35.5 National 64.5

42.6 Up-country Tamil 57.4

31.3 Muslim No 68.7 Yes 30.2 Tamil 69.8

35.9 Sinhala 64.1

0 1020304050607080 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 45 Top-Line Results

Do you think the President has taken effective action to deal with these attacks?

National Breakdown

26.6 34.2

Yes No Don’t know/Not sure

39.2

Ethnic Breakdown

39.2 National 26.6 34.2

36.3 Up-country Tamil 54.7 9

32.7 Don’t know/Not sure Muslim 31 36.4 No 13.1 Tamil 75.8 Yes 11.1 42 Sinhala 20.9 37

0 1020304050607080 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 46 Top-Line Results

Do you think the Prime Minister has taken effective action to deal with these attacks?

National Breakdown

23.3

49 Yes No

Don’t know/Not sure 27.7

Ethnic Breakdown

49 National 27.7 23.3 31.7 Up-country Tamil 53.4 Don’t know/Not 14.9 sure 39 No Muslim 23.4 37.7 Yes 17.1 Tamil 64.8 18.1

53.3 Sinhala 23.9 22.9

0 10203040506070 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 47 Top-Line Results

Do you think the Inspector General of Police (IGP) has taken effective action to deal with these attacks?

National Breakdown

32.7 Yes 44.8

Don’t know/Not sure 22.5

Ethnic Breakdown

44.8 National 22.5 32.7 53.1 Up-country Tamil 33.2 13.7

36.8 Don’t know/Not sure Muslim 12.7 50.6 No 14.7 Tamil 71.3 Yes 14

47.5 Sinhala 18.8 33.7

0 1020304050607080 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 48 Top-Line Results

DISSOLUTION OF PARLIAMENT

If you are aware of the dissolution of parliament on the 7th of February 2004 and the decision to hold elections on the 2nd of April 2004, in your opinion what impact will a general election have on the peace process?

National Breakdown

48.5

Will have a positive impact Will have no impact Will have a negative impact Don't know/Not sure 16.9 24 10.6

Ethnic Breakdown

48.5 16.9 National 10.6 24

38 26.9 Up-country Tamil 5.6 Don't know/Not sure 29.4

49.3 Will have a negative 24.7 Muslim impact 10.8 15.2 Will have no impact 42.2 36.1 Tamil Will have a positive impact 4.9 16.8 49.4 14.6 Sinhala 11.2 24.9

0 102030405060 %

District sample (weighted) distribution in February 2004

DISTRICT TOTAL Colombo 304 Gampaha 251 Kalutara 130 Kandy 148 Matale 51 Nuwar Eliya 77 Galle 116 Hambantota 60 Matara 91 Anuradhapura 86 Polonnaruwa 40 Kurunegala 175 Puttlam 79 Badulla 84 Monaragala 41 Ratnapura 118 Kegalle 94 Amparai 62 Batticoloa 56 Trincomalee 46 Vavuniya 17 NATIONAL 2125

Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in February 2004

ETHNICITY TOTAL Sinhala 1771 Tamil 132 Muslim 133 Up-country Tamil 89 NATIONAL 2125

ii Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

Sampling Methodology

Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations in public confidence levels towards the peace process over time it is essential that the study be conducted repetitively with equal pauses during the study. Thus conducting the study bi-monthly with the use of a clearly defined and constant sample frame during each phase of the study ensures this fact.

The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of approximately 1600 respondents during each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to capture the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is undeniable that an individual’s opinion on the peace process is influenced by a number of factors, however the ethnic factor, which is the most important and influential, is the sole factor that has been accommodated in this model.

The total sample is distributed among 22 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, but in the Amparai, Batticoloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar districts the entire area is not covered as a result of the prevailing conflict situation and logistical difficulties. The sample size is assigned to each stratum is approximately equal to the population proportions. However, some districts are over sampled due to the ethnic heterogeneity but the over sampling biases are eliminated by weighting the sample.

A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a district only if the population proportion of that particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the primary sampling unit using the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri Lanka 1996’ published by the Department of Census and Statistics as the sample frame.

To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensuring a maximum dispersion of the sample within a DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a GND. Within a given GND the enumerator is advised to select a starting point randomly and proceed with interviews using the random walk (right hand rule) technique in order to assure the random selection of households.

In the case of urban areas the interviewer is instructed to skip a house while selecting the households, thus resulting in the interview taking place at every alternative household. As the final sampling unit, the respondent is chosen from the household using the ‘KISH’ grid thus ensuring that each member of the household has an equal chance of being selected to the PCI sample.

The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. It is noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model does not support the regional level analysis at the same level of precision.

Social Indicator (SI) is an independent social research organisation, which conducts polls on socio-economic and political issues. Operating under the Board of Directors of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA), SI was established in September 1999, and filled a longstanding vacuum for a permanent, professional and independent polling facility in Sri Lanka on social and political issues. Polling is an instrument of empowerment, a means by which the silent majority of the public can express their opinions on issues affecting them. Our mission is to conduct surveys on key social issues, thereby providing a means through which public opinion can influence the public policy debate.

Published by: Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.

Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: [email protected] Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org