Peace Confidence Index (PCI) TOP-LINE RESULTS Social Indicator

An Opinion Poll On Peace

January 2003

© 2003 Social Indicator ● Centre for Policy Alternatives hile many studies have been conducted on various aspects of W this conflict, none have attempted to capture the changes in public perception over a period of time. The lack of such a study was identified as a significant void by Social Indicator (SI), the social research unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA). The Peace Confidence Index study (PCI) seeks to fill this lacuna. The study, funded by the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) under the Governance and Institutional Strengthening Project, (GISP) Sri Lanka, will be conducted bi-monthly to gauge the impact of local and international political developments on public attitudes towards the peace process.

Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results

CONTENTS

• INTRODUCTION 01 • KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS 02 • FINDINGS AT A GLANCE 06 • PEACE CONFIDENCE INDEX (PCI) 09 TOP-LINE RESULTS

PERCEPTIONS OF WAR AND PEACE 09

SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT 12

CONFIDENCE 13

THE PEACE PROCESS 17

INTERNATIONAL THIRD PARTY FACILITATION 18

NORWEGIAN FACILITATION 19

INDIA’S INVOLVEMENT 21

• RECENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS 22

SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION 22

LTTE 25

PEACE TALKS 29

THE MUSLIM COMMUNITY 34

LIVING CONDITIONS 36

OPPOSITION’S ROLE 38

JAPAN’S ROLE 42

• ANNEX

Peace Confidence Index Page 1 Top-line Results

INTRODUCTION

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of public confidence in the peace process using a set of standardised questions which remain unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of questions related to recent social, economic and political developments in order to gauge public opinion of the peace process, which by definition will change from one wave to another.

Such information, collected over a period of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a useful barometer of the opinions of the Sri Lankan polity, and ensure that the collective opinions of the public are given due importance and incorporated into the policy debate.

SCOPE & METHODOLOGY

The study is carried out using a structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face interviews amongst a 1,397 respondent sample. The 17 administrative districts of the seven provinces, excluding the Northern and the Eastern provinces, and areas under Government control of the Amparai, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar were surveyed. Data is weighted to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of the districts in which the sample was surveyed.

Ten waves of the PCI study were conducted in May, June, September and November 2001 and January, March, May, July, September and November 2002. The latest wave was conducted in January 2003. This publication presents only the top-line results of the January 2003 survey.

The results of these ten waves offer us data for a comparative study on changing public opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of war and peace to the proscription of the LTTE. The results are subject to a 3% margin of error.

Peace Confidence Index Page 2 Top-Line Results

KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS DECEMBER 2002-FEBRUARY 2003

• The government and the LTTE agree to explore a political solution founded on the principle of internal self-determination in areas of historical habitation of the Tamil-speaking peoples, based on a federal structure within a united Sri Lanka at the third round of the talks in Oslo, Norway. (5 December 2002)- (Daily Mirror/http://www.peaceinsrilanka.org/insidepages/Archive/December/Talks3Transcript.asp) • Phillip Reeker, the US Deputy Spokesman for the State Department, hails the agreement in Oslo to establish a federal system of government within a united Sri Lanka. (7 December 2002)- (www.lankapage.com) • PA media spokesman Dr. Sarath Amunugama expresses views in support of power sharing for the North and East through a federal structure. Dr. Amunugama, who recently led a SLFP team to India to hand over a letter from President Kumaratunga to Indian Premier Vajpayee, said that it was the PA which offered federalism to the North and East in August 2000. (7 December 2002)-(www.lankapage.com) • The Prime Minister on a visit to Japan speaks of the crucial role Japan has agreed to play to ensure the success of the current peace initiative. The PM states that as a major world power, Japan's support would send a positive signal to other countries. (9 December 2002)-(www.lankapage.com) • The EPDP challenges the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission's claim that there was no hard evidence to link the LTTE with the attacks on the EPDP in Nelliady. (12 December 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • Sri Lanka’s efforts to improve the quality of life of its people and to secure lasting peace will receive support from a US$15 million credit approved today by the World Bank. (12 December 2002)-(The Island) • PA Spokesman Sarath Amunugama charges that the import of high-powered radio transmission equipment for the LTTE through the Norwegian embassy here raised serious doubts about Oslo's role as a facilitator. (13 December 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • Addressing the weekly press conference held by the PA, Lakshman Kadirgamar says that the government should address the issue of decommissioning the LTTE parallel to the peace talks. (13 December 2002)- (The Island) • The government and the LTTE agrees at the subcommittee meeting on de-escalation and normalization held at Muhamalai, that an immediate solution should be found for the resettlement of internally displaced people in high security zones and other areas. The Norwegian Embassy in a statement says that both parties took a non-confrontational approach and demonstrated a mutual understanding and will to find solutions acceptable to both. (15 December 2002)-(www.lankapage.com) • Government chief negotiator G. L. Peiris expresses confidence that President Chandrika Kumaratunga would in principle see eye to eye with the UNF government on the basis for a settlement of the ethnic conflict. (17 December 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • The EPDP decides to halve the number of its members in Delft Island. They say that this decision has been taken to support the government’s peace process. (18 December 2002)-(www.lankapage.com) • The Ministry of Rehabilitation Resettlement and Refugees (MRRR) has appealed to the organisations and parties interested in the welfare of internally displaced Sinhala families to hand in information regarding them. (22 December 2002)-(The Island) • The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission says the arrest of a person operating a 'court house' in Pandirippu is a matter for the police and the legal system of the country to deal with and not a violation of the Ceasefire Agreement. (23 December 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • Issuing an official statement, the LTTE says that further meetings of the Sub-Committee on De-Escalation and Normalisation (SDN) would serve no purpose. The statement, released from the LTTE’s Kilinochchi headquarters, rejects the demand made by the Sri Lankan Army’s Jaffna Commander that the relaxation of the High Security Zones should be conditional on the disarmament of LTTE. (26 December 2002)- (www.lankapage.com) • The EPRLF accusing the LTTE of murdering one of its senior members, Poobalapillai Alagathurai, says the spate of abductions and disappearances since the government initiated peace talks raises a serious question about the real objectives of the LTTE. (26 December 2002)-(The Island) • A soldier manning the forward defence line at Ranabapura in Welioya was taken into LTTE ‘custody’ on 24th Tuesday. (26 December 2002)-(The Island)

Peace Confidence Index Page 3 Top-Line Results

• Major General Trond Furuhovde, the head of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM), has stressed the need for joint efforts by the people, the government and the LTTE to defeat anti-peace extremist forces. He says that the real threat to peace in Sri Lanka now comes from the activities of extremists and criminal organizations. (27 December 2002)-(www.lankapage.com) • The Lanka Sama Samaja Party (LSSP) says there is a suspicion within the Muslim community that the talks between the government and the LTTE are centred on the integration of the North and East. (28 December 2002)-(www.lankapage.com) • With the LTTE taking a tough stand on the High Security Zones issue President Chandrika Kumaratunga backs Jaffna Army Commander Major General Sarath Fonseka's proposals to disarm LTTE cadres, before allowing civilians to resettle in the Jaffna High Security Zones (HSZs). (29 December 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • The main opposition People's Alliance claims that at least 11 parliamentarians from the East had indicated their willingness to support it to form a new government. (29 December 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission recommends a meeting between the government and the LTTE on January 14 in Muhamalai on the re-settlement of persons in the HSZs. (30 December 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • In the agenda of the fourth round of peace talks due to be held in Thailand, Government has decided to include three special reports on recommendations on resettlement of displaced persons from high security zones in the North and East province. (30 December 2002)-(Daily Mirror) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga sends a toughly worded letter to Norwegian Prime Minister Kijell Magne Bondevik today, accusing Ambassador Jon Westborg of serious misconduct in violation of Sri Lanka's Customs regulations and the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. (1 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga writes to Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe asking for a full report by tomorrow on the import of hi-tech equipment for the LTTE. (1 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • The LTTE has not imported any VSAT communication unit with its FM radio transmission equipment, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe today informed President Chandrika Kumaratunga in a five-page response to some of the concerns raised by her. (3 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • The Sri Lankan government rejects the LTTE’s position that it would not accept the Sub-Committee on De-Escalation and Normalisation (SDN), aimed at restoring civilian life in the North and East. (9 January 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • Defence Minister Thilak Marapana has said that it is not yet time to do away with the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA). (13 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • The LTTE urges rehabilitation Minister Jaylath Jayawardena to request Indian authorities to postpone the proposed repatriation of some 350,000 Tamil refugees from Tamil Nadu. LTTE resettlement chief K.T. Reggie has requested that the programme be postponed till civilians were resettled in the High Security Zone. (15 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • Bank authorities and account holders of banks in Jaffna protest against alleged attempts by the LTTE to obtain lists of account holders in banks. (15 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • The Coalition to Stop the Use of Child Soldiers have insisted the United Nations Security Council to add to their list names of Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Colombia as countries that are using children in armed conflicts. (16 January 2003)-(www.theacademic.org) • A former head of the human rights watchdog Amnesty International, Mr. Ian Martin, will participate in the next session of talks in February to come up with comprehensive proposals on human rights issues, Cabinet spokesperson Minister G. L. Peiris announced today. (16 January 2003)-(The Island) • The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) will arrange a meeting between Defence Secretary Austin Fernando and Ampara-Batticaloa LTTE commander Karuna shortly to discuss a range of contentious issues, particularly issues arising from violations of a cease-fire agreement. (19 January 2003)-(The Island) • The Bishop of Trincomalee and Batticaloa K. Swampillai has rapped the LTTE over alleged abductions and conscription of children. (19 January 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • Ruling United National Front and the main opposition PA are secretly preparing for a possible forthcoming general election, Lankadeepa newspaper reported. (19 January 2003) (www.theacademic.org) • Sri Lankan President Chandrika Kumaratunga and leftist party JVP or the People's Liberation Front hold talks aimed at forging a possible joint opposition against the government. (20 January 2003) – (www.theacademic.org) • The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission today again urged the LTTE leadership to seriously address the issue of child abductions and recruitment. (20 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa yesterday visited Jaffna with a delegation of the People’s Alliance Parliamentarians for the first time since the ceasefire agreement was signed between the government and the LTTE. (21 January 2003)-(The Island)

Peace Confidence Index Page 4 Top-Line Results

• Global shipping faces unprecedented threats from radicals linked to Osama bin Laden’s al Qaeda network who have been trained in suicide attacks developed by Sri Lanka’s Tiger rebels, security experts say. (21 January 2003)-(Reuters/The Island) • The LTTE has responded to a complaint made by the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission with regard to an incident at the Batticaloa hospital last week, conceding that the behaviour of some of its members was unacceptable. (21 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • A spokesman for the Scandinavian monitoring team says recent months had shown a clear downward trend in child recruitment by LTTE and other ceasefire violations by both sides. (22 Jan 2003)- (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/2683933.stm) • 1795 families displaced from Sri Lanka Army (SLA) controlled areas and Liberation Tigers (LTTE) controlled areas in Vavuniya district have requested assistance to resettle in their villages and details of these families have been collected by the Vavuniya civil authorities, sources in Vavuniya said. (22 January 2003)-(www.Tamilnet.com) • The LTTE is responsible for over 90 per cent of the ceasefire agreement violations during last year, the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission said today. (22 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • Problems were encountered at the commencement of the Survvey of Jaffna residences scheduled for Jan 22 as the government representatives were not present and the LTTE pulling out according to Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission. (22 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • Sinhala Ururmaya (SU) is to meet the chairman of the Radio Commission and Regulatory Commission (RCRC) Mr. Themiya Hurulle to request for a Radio FM Frequency. (22 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • In a meeting with a Swiss delegation headed by the ambassador for Switzerland in Sri Lanka Hon. Bernardino Regazzoni today, S.P.Thamilchelvan, the political leader of the LTTE, has stressed that the immediate focus of the peace process should be on the humanitarian needs of the people of the North- East, according to the ambassador. (23 January 2003)-(www.tamilnet.com) • Several political parties, trade unions, professionals and media personnel to join the government to form a National Centre for Peace, which will marginalise anti-peace groups such as Sihala Ururmaya and the JVP, according to Lands Minister Rajitha Senaratne. (23 January 2003)-(Daily News) • Presidential spokesman Mr. Harim Peiris says the Presidential Secretariat has received information that the number of LTTE child soldiers has gone up from 6,000 before the signing of the ceasefire agreement to 16,000 at present. (23 January 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • Norway annonced the appointment today of Mr. Tellefsen, the new chief of Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission. Outgoing chief, Mr. Furuhovde, also a retired major general, has led the monitors since Feb. 22, 2002. (23 January 2003)-(AP/www.theacademic.org) • A mother of a fifteen-year old son from Batticaloa has threatened to commit suicide by setting herself ablaze unless her LTTE abducted son is released, the army website reported. (23 January 2003)-(The Island) • The Human Rights Commission today started interviewing families of people who went missing after government troops took over major parts of the Jaffna Peninsula from Tamil Tiger rebels in 1995. London-based human rights watchdog Amnesty International has estimated that 540 people disappeared after the Sri Lanka - military regained control of the area. (24 January 2003)-(AP/www.theacademic.org) • The Sri Lankan Government has ruled out the possibility of two separate armies, but keeps the option open for a separate police force as part of the political solution to end the island's decades-long separatist conflict as stated by Prof. G.L. Peiris, Chief Negotiator. (25 January 2003)-(The Hindu/www.academic.org) • The Eelanaadu in its January 20 issue reports that the LTTE conducted meetings for students above Grade 8 (13 to 14 years and above) in several schools in Batticaloa where senior LTTE cadres stressed that they had no faith in the peace process. (25 January 2003)-(The Island) • The LTTE and the UNICEF begin a process to formulate an action plan to restore normalcy in the lives of children of the North and East affected by the armed conflict with special emphasis on child labour and children in armed conflict. (26 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga orders the Army and Police chiefs to take ' immediate action' to stop abductions and other ceasefire violations by the LTTE. (26 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • Sri Lanka's government plans to hold a referendum before signing a final peace deal with Tamil Tiger rebels, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe was quoted as saying the Sunday Observer. (26 January 2003)-(Associated Press /www.lankapage.com) • The Ambassador for Switzerland in Sri Lanka Bernardino Regazzoni says that he discussed matters related to urgent humanitarian needs in the North and the East when he met with LTTE's political wing leader, Thamilchelvan recently. (26 January 2003)-(www.theacademic.org)

Peace Confidence Index Page 5 Top-Line Results

• The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) will not accept recommendations from international military experts that link the "critical humanitarian issue" of resettling internally displaced persons and refugees in Jaffna to disarming of its cadres and de-commissioning of its weapons, the movement's chief negotiator and political strategist, Mr Anton Balasingham, told the Tamil Guardian newspaper Monday. (27 January 2003)-(www.tamilnet.com) • Batticaloa appears to be in confusion over the board put up two months ago at the entrance to Batticaloa town at “Pillaradi Junction”, a Government controlled area, which has the wording “Welcome to the land of Heroes”, which was removed on Monday January 26 and re-erected on 27, amidst conflicting reports. (27 January 2003)- (Daily Mirror) • The first commander of the U.N. Peace Keeping Forces in former Yugoslavia, Satish Nambiar, does not see the possibility of a review of Sri Lanka's northern High Security Zones (HSZs), unless the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) "deposits its weapons to neutral supervision and withdraws from frontline positions".). (27 January 2003)-(The Hindu -www.hinduonnet.com) • The LTTE have admitted that they are still recruiting child soldiers, international peace monitors said. (28 January 2003)-(BBC South Asia -16:17 GMT ) • Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapakse says there should be a political programme to build the confidence of the Tamil people in the North. (28 January 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • The business community of the North of Sri Lanka got a major boost when the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce (CCC) signed a landmark agreement with the Jaffna trade chambers, to provide them immediate access to a new service which puts national and global business information at their fingertips. (28 January 2003)-(www.theacademic.org) • Prime Minister Ranil Wickramasinghe says that the services of two military experts from Britain and India will be obtained to deal with the issue of the high security zones in the Northeast. (28 January 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • The World Bank says that it expects to begin disbursing funds in February for the reconstruction of the North East and the funds would come from the 43 million dollar emergency package approved in 2001 November. (29 January 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • The United Kingdom's development assistance to Sri Lanka will be 15 million Sterling Pounds this year and 20 million Sterling Pounds next year, making the UK the second largest bilateral donor, visiting British Foreign Office Minister Mike O' Brien, who is expected in Colombo today, said in a statement. (29 January 2003)-(Daily News) • Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission informs LTTE to withdraw their film "Kadal Kaattru" ("Sea Breeze") from cinemas of Vavuniya and Mannar where it is currently shown. This film is the most expensive movie LTTE has ever made. (29 January 2003)-(Lankadeepa (Daily)) • The student population in the East launching the biggest ever procession of Muslims in the history today, numbering over 15000, announces the ‘Oluvil Declaration’ at Oluvil which called for a separate Muslim region in the East claiming that the North-East was their traditional homeland. (29 January 2003)-(The Island) • A meeting of the World Bank (WB), the Government and the LTTE will be held in Colombo today to discuss the modality in which the US $ 85 million should be expended, according to Cabinet spokesman Prof. G. L. Peiris. (29 January 2003)-(The Island) • The LTTE is planning a hartal shortly in the Batticaloa area after the police had for the second time removed a cut-out put up by the LTTE at Pillayar Junction, Batticaloa, police intelligence said. (29 January 2003)-(The Island) • Presidential advisor and parliamentarian Anura Bandaranaike has announced that his sister would dissolve the government at the correct time once the PA forms a new alliance and organizes islandwide. (29 January 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • The LTTE proposes holding meetings between the parents of children that have joined the LTTE, Tiger district commanders and Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission with regard to complaints related to child recruitment, the SLMM announces. (30 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • Presidential Advisor Anura Bandaranaike warns the government that the President would exercise her executive powers if it fails to take action to curb alleged LTTE violations of the ceasefire. (31 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • Taking a decisive stand on child soldiers, UNICEF Executive Director Carol Bellamy who is on a visit in Sri Lanka calls for words to be translated into action and asserts that she had dealt with the issue long enough not to be taken in by mere assurances. (1 February 2003)-(The Island) • Premier Ranil Wickremasinghe makes a fresh call for the opposition to help the country achieve peace. (1 February 2003)-(www.lankapage.com)

Peace Confidence Index Page 6 Top-Line Results

FINDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CONDUCTED FROM 31ST JANUARY TO 14TH FEBRUARY 2003

♦ Uncertainty as to when there will be peace in Sri Lanka is expressed by 60.1% in January 2003. Over 65% of the Sinhala community and 39% of the Muslim community are unable to indicate when there will be peace in Sri Lanka while 55.3% of the Tamil and 47% of the Up-country Tamil communities feel there will be peace soon. (Ref. Page 11)

♦ An overwhelming majority (83.7%) continues to believe peace can be achieved through peace talks. (Ref. Page 12)

♦ The decline in the opinion that the Government is committed to finding peace through talks still continues. (70.2% in July 2002 to 56.7% in January 2003) (Ref. Page 13)

♦ 38.3% believe that the Government goes in for talks due to its ‘Commitment to peace’. However, the belief that the Government goes in for talks due to ‘Economic hardship’ rises from 20.1% in November 2002 to 28.6% in January 2003. While the Muslim (44%) and Up-county Tamil (50.2%) communities chiefly believe it is ‘Economic hardship’, the Tamil community feels that it is ‘International pressure’ (29.3%) that drives the Government to go in for talks. (Ref. Page 15)

♦ There is a decline in the belief that the LTTE goes in for talks due to the realization that this war cannot be won (30.8% in November 2002 to 25.6% in January 2003). There is however an increase in the belief that the LTTE goes in for talks ‘To fool the people’ from 16.1% in November 2002 to 28.7% in January 2003. This opinion mainly stems from the Sinhala community (33.8%). (Ref. Page 16)

♦ Whilst 19% of the Sinhala community believes that only the Government and the LTTE should be involved in negotiation, 27.8% of the Tamil community feels that there should be an International third party involvement as well. 44.9% of the Muslim and 45.6% of the Up-country Tamil communities advocate the widest spectrum of involvement in negotiations. (Ref. Page 17)

♦ Overall approval for Norway assisting in the peace process has declined in January 2003 (42.3%) while the disapproval has increased to 28.2%. The Tamil (85.9%) and the Up-country Tamil (79.6%) communities however, overwhelmingly support Norway’s assistance. (Ref. Page 19)

♦ The approval (38.2%) for Norway continuing to facilitate talks has decreased, whereas there is an increase in the disapproval (29.4%). This disapproval mainly stems from the Sinhala community. (Ref. Page 20)

♦ There is an increase in the opinion that India’s involvement ‘Will add a positive impact’ (35.5%) in the Sri Lankan peace process. (Ref. Page 21)

Peace Confidence Index Page 7 Top-Line Results

♦ Of those aware of the involvement of foreign monitors in monitoring the CFA, 84.5% of the Tamil and 84.2% of the Muslim communities stress the need for such a monitoring mission for the CFA to succeed. However, nationally there is a fall in this opinion (25.3%) when compared to November 2002 (29.7%). (Ref. Page 22)

♦ There is a division in the Sinhala opinion on the impartiality (Agree – 26.1%, Disagree – 30.9%) and the effectiveness (Agree – 23.1%, Disagree – 31.1%) of the SLMM in its monitoring of the CFA. The other communities however, extend their agreement. (Ref. Page 23 and Page 24)

♦ 82.7% of the Tamils believe that the LTTE is the sole representative of the Tamil community, while 65.6% of the Sinhala community believes otherwise. (Ref. Page 25)

♦ Of those aware that the LTTE recently obtained hi-tech radio equipment, over 61% disapprove of the Government permitting the LTTE to import hi-tech radio equipment and granting a license to the LTTE peace secretariat. (Ref. Page 26 and Page 27)

♦ 66.7% of those aware of Norwegian Government’s involvement in the importation of the hi-tech radio equipment for the LTTE disapprove of the Norwegian Government’s involvement. (Ref. Page 28)

♦ 36.9% of those aware that the Government and the LTTE have agreed to a federal solution within a united Sri Lanka, approve of it, while 41% express their disapproval and 22.1% are uncertain. 46.8% of the Sinhala community disapproves of the agreement, which is in contrast to the overwhelming approval given by the other communities. (Ref. Page 29)

♦ 56% of those aware of the decision taken by the Government and the LTTE to accelerate the resettlement of the IDPs outside the HSZs, believe that it will have a positive impact on the peace process. (Ref. Page 30)

♦ Of those aware of the Government’s request for an International committee of military experts to look at the issue of HSZs 39.8% perceive that it will have a positive impact on the peace process. Conversely 37.2% remain undecided. (Ref. Page 31)

♦ 54.3% of the Sri Lankans are satisfied with the progress of the peace process. (Ref. Page 33)

♦ 61% of the Muslim community feels that the interests and concerns of the Muslims of the East are not being adequately represented in the peace talks. (Ref. Page 34)

♦ The cost of living is the most important issue of the day for a majority (48.2%) of Sri Lankans while the ethnic conflict (18.8%) and unemployment (16.5%) rank as the second and third most important issues respectively. The Tamil community however places the ethnic conflict (30%) as their main concern. (Ref. Page 36)

Peace Confidence Index Page 8 Top-Line Results

♦ When people were asked what kind of impact the peace process has had on their living conditions, 33.9% say the peace process has had no impact on their living conditions. However, 81.1% of the Tamil community believes that it has had a positive impact on their living condition. (Ref. Page 37)

♦ 36.2% of those aware of the talks between the SLFP and the JVP are unable to think of an impact that an alliance between their two parties will have on the peace process. Conversely, the Tamil (47.1%), the Muslim (47.9%) and the Up-country Tamil (65.8%) communities believe that these talks will have a negative impact on the peace process. (Ref. Page 39)

♦ 46.6% of those aware of JVP’s campaign against the peace process and the cost of living disapprove of JVP’s campaign against the peace process, while a majority (61.5%) across the ethnic communities approve of their campaign on the cost of living (Sinhala –60.7%, Tamil – 66.6%, Muslim – 60.8%, Up-country Tamil – 69.7%). (Ref. Page 40 and Page 41)

♦ An overwhelming majority (70.5%) of those aware of Japan’s key role in rehabilitation and reconstruction in the North and East approve of it. (Ref. Page 42)

For further information please contact:

Reshma Harjani or Pradeep Peiris Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.

Tel: 370472 Email: [email protected] Fax: 370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org

Page 9 Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results

PEACE CONFIDENCE INDEX (PCI)

MAY 2001 – JANUARY 2003

THE PERCEPTION OF WAR AND PEACE

What does ‘peace’ mean to you? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

63 60 54 52.7 54.5 53.9 50.6 50.5 49.2 50 46.1 47.2 End of war 44.9 41.4 42.7 40 36.7 37.5 36.4 35.8 Ethnic Harmony 35.9 34.7 % 34.7 35 34.1 35.7 34.7 35 30 32 Feeling Safe 24.7 31.2 29.3 29 25.9 25.4 21.6 20 Freedom 16.7 18.3 15.3 16.2 12.6 10 14.9 15.5 14.9 10.4 11.2 9.8

0 May '01 September '01 January '02 May '02 September '02 January '03

Ethnic Breakdown

18.6 26.4 Up-country Tamil 76 25 9.4 35.3 Freedom Muslim 78 Feeling safe 16.1 Ethnic Harmony 36.8 End of war 28.7 Tamil 48.3 32.5 46.7 9.2 Sinhala 40.7 35.9

0 102030405060708090 %

What does ‘war’ mean to you? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

60.2 58.9 Means to achieving peace 57.8 60 54.4 55.9 51.3 50.8 Fighting for rights 50 43.1 42.8 39.6 40 Disharmony amongst % races 30.3 30 27.1 27.4 24.5 25.2 26.4 26.2 27.7 Hindrance to economic 23.9 26 growth/ Rise in cost of 22.9 22.9 20.3 21.2 25.7 living 21.5 18.2 22.3 20 17.1 16.2 16.2 21.5 15 16.7 Death / Destruction 12.3 16.4 16.6 15.8 15.6 16.8 9.8 9.4 13.2 10 12.4 10.9 12.9 11.4 9.9 8.7 8.7 Terrorism 0.3 7.8 8.6 2.7 4.6 3.5 2.7 3.3 3.5 0 3.5

June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02 November '02

Ethnic Breakdown

7 56.6 22 Up-country Tamil 36.8 26.6 Terrorism 3.5

10.4 54.6 Death / Destruction 13.1 Muslim 37.2 16.4 Hindrance to economic growth/ 2.1 Rise in cost of living 11.2 53.2 Disharmony amongst races 20.7 Tamil 23.8

25 Fighting for rights 10.2 8.5 56.1 Means to achieving peace 29.4 Sinhala 24.4 14.1 4.4 0 102030405060 %

When will there be peace in Sri Lanka?

National Trend

80 71.3

70 63.8 60 57.9 58.4 58.6 60 53.9 54.5 57.2 60.1 57.6 50 Soon % 40 Never 30 24.8 24.8 21.1 22.1 Do not 18.9 21 20 13.4 know 11 17.7 10.2 9.9 9 7.6 10 6.7 6.8 4.9 8.2 10.6 10.4 7.5 7.2 0 May '01 September January May '02 September January '01 '02 '02 '03

Ethnic Breakdown

28.6 3.6 3.7 Up-country Tamil 4.9 12.3 47 39.6 5.4 Do not know Muslim 2.2 3.9 Never 9.7 38.2 Not in my life time 26.1 Within the next ten years 10.3 Within the next five years 2.3 Tamil 2.9 Soon 3.2 55.3 65.8 8.5 1.3 Sinhala 2.1 9.2 11.8 0 10203040506070 %

SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT

How do you think we can end the war and have peace in Sri Lanka? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

100

87.2 86 90 85 84.4 83.7 80.7 83.7 80 71.3 71.9 68.6 70 Government 59.1 defeating the 60 LTTE

% 50 LTTE defeating 40 the Government

30 24.4 18 20 19.9 20 Peace talks 9.9 10.1 7.6 7 7.2 10 6.5 1.3 0.8 1 5.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 1 1.1 0.3 0 May '01 September January May '02 September January '01 '02 '02 '03

Ethnic Breakdown

89.9 Up-country Tamil 0.3 1.8

91.8 Peace talks Muslim 0.2 1.9 LTTE defeating the 95.2 Government Tamil 1.4 Government defeating the 0 LTTE

81.9 Sinhala 0.2 7.5 0 20406080100 %

CONFIDENCE

I think the Government is committed to find peace through talks.

National Trend

80 69.8 70.2 70 63.7 61.8 58 59.4 60 53 50.2 56.7

50 43.8 44 Agree Disagree % 40 31.4 30 23.8 22.5 24.5

20 15.1 20.9 12 11.9 18.6 9.8 9.1 10

0 May '01 September '01 January '02 May '02 September '02 January '03

Ethnic Breakdown

2.5 Up-country Tamil 16.9 72.1

5.3 Disagree Muslim 8.7 73.3 Neither agree nor disagree 6.6 Tamil 9.8 Agree 63

24 Sinhala 14.1 54.2 0 1020304050607080 %

I think the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks.

National Trend

68.5 70 63.5

60 53.2 50.6 50 45.7 42.7 39.5 39.8 38.2 Agree % 40 38.9 32.9 Disagree 29.3 30 29 22.2 28.3 15.8 17.3 27.3 27.5 20 25.7 12.9 9.8 10

0 May '01 September '01 January '02 May '02 September '02 January '03

Ethnic Breakdown

6.1 Up-country Tamil 16.2 63.1

9.4 Muslim 15.9 46.1 Disagree Neither agree nor disagree 2.6 Agree Tamil 12.1 63.3

45.4 Sinhala 18.9 23.2

0 10203040506070 %

Why do you think that the Government goes in for talks? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

50 48.8 45.3 44.6 42.1 39 41.7 39.5 38.3 40 35.8 35.5 38.3 Commitment to peace 33.2 32.4 32.5 % 37.5 28.9 29.9 30 33.4 27 Economic hardship 24.1 28.6 24.1 29.6 24.5 28.9 24.1 International pressure 19.9 19.8 18.6 20 18 17.2 19.7 17.6 20.1 Realisation that this war 12.4 16.2 12.2 10 14.1 cannot be won 14.5 15.5 9.7 10.3 To fool the people 10 11.9 8 10.3 10.6 9.5 8.4 8.8 7.1 7.1 7.4 6.6 4.5 Lack of manpower 4.2 3.5 4.3 3.2 3.9 0 June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02 November '02

Ethnic Breakdown

7 4.9 Up-country 33 Tamil 19.1 50.2 33.2 Lack of manpower 16.6 0.9 28 To fool the people Muslim 13.1 44 43.2 Realisation that this war cannot be won 3.2 0.4 International pressure 11.4 Tamil 29.3 24.5 Economic hardship 21.3 6.2 Commitment to peace 11.9 24.2 Sinhala 12.7 26.7 39.6 0 102030405060 %

Why do you think that the LTTE goes in for talks? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

44.9 45

40 Commitment to peace 34.6 35 31.3 31.5 30.8 Economic hardship 30.8 28.7 30 27.9 27.7 International pressure 29.1 27.3 25.1 27.4 25.6 % 24.7 25 24.5 22.4 23.4 23.9 22.5 20.5 Realisation that this war 18.7 18.3 20.4 20 19.1 19 20 cannot be won 18.2 15.4 16.9 16.7 16.7 14.9 15.9 18.6 18.1 14.6 15.2 13.9 16.1 16.5 To fool the people 15 14.9 13.9 15.5 13.1 12.3 14.6 14.5 13.8 12.8 14.4 13.2 10 8.9 12.5 12.4 12.8 Lack of manpower 10.3 8.5 5 6.6

0 June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02 November '02

Ethnic Breakdown

18.3 3.1 30.3 Up-country Tamil 20.4 25.7 35.6 Lack of manpower 29.1 4.8 To fool the people 27.7 Muslim 27.9 18.3 Realisation that this war cannot be 29.8 won 3.2 International pressure 0.4 14.7 Tamil 19.1 Economic hardship 10.2 39.7 Commitment to peace 14.2 33.8 26 Sinhala 20.2 16.5 12.7

0 1020304050 %

THE PEACE PROCESS

Who should be involved in negotiations?

National Trend

40 36.7 35 Govt. and LTTE only 32.1 33.9 30 31.3 25.8 27 25.1 Govt.,LTTE and 25 21.9 International third party 23 21.7 21.6 19.9 only % 20 19 18.3 16.2 15.9 16.4 19.1 Govt., Opposition, 15.1 14.2 17.2 15 16.4 LTTE,Tamil, Muslim 12.4 12.1 16.6 15.5 15.5 11 parties and a third party 13.5 14 12.9 10 6.6 9.5 No peace talks 4.8 5 4.3 4 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.4 1.9 1.4 1 0 May '01 September '01 January '02 May '02 September '02 January '03

Ethnic Breakdown

5.1 0 45.6 4.6 Do not know Up-country Tamil 1.9 4.1 16.9 14.2 No peace talks 7.6 0 44.9 Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil, Muslim 32.4 2.2 Muslim parties and a third party 1 1 6.1 Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil 15.5 and Muslim parties only 0 21.5 Govt., Opposition, LTTE, Tamil 3.4 Tamil 4 parties and a third party 6.6 27.8 6 Govt., Opposition, LTTE and other Tamil parties only 7.9 1.2 14.7 Govt.,LTTE and International third 7.3 party only Sinhala 14.6 7 12.3 Govt. and LTTE only 19

0 1020304050 %

INTERNATIONAL THIRD PARTY FACILITATION

What is your opinion of the need for an international third party’s involvement to solve the North East war in Sri Lanka?

National Trend

40 38 35.8

35 32.6 31.9 32.5 32.5 30.9 30.2 30 28.9 30.6 Is essential 29 29 29 24.2 28.8 25 Will add a positive 26.1 21.8 20.9 impact

% 20 Will have no impact 16.7 16.8 16.5 17.9 14.2 Will add a negative 16 13.2 15 14.2 13.1 impact 11.3 10 Is not essential 9.6 10.3 9.6 10.5 10 11.3 11.6 9.5 9.9 10.2 9.2 Do not know 5.4 4.6 5 5.7 5.4 3.2 2.1 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.9 1.4 0 September '01 January '02 May '02 September '02 January '03

Ethnic Breakdown

7.1 7.3 Up-country Tamil 2.4 2.9 26.5 53.5 Do not know 20.2 7.9 Is not essential 6 Muslim 0.9 Will add a negative impact 5 58.8 Will have no impact Will add a positive impact 6.6 5.4 Is essential 0 Tamil 1.4 1.2 85.4 9.2 20.1 6.3 Sinhala 1.3 32.8 23.3

0 20406080100 %

NORWEGIAN FACILITATION

Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan peace process

National Trends

60 53.8 50.7 50 46.3 42.4 42.7 42.3 40 37 Approve

% 30 Neither approve 24.5 28.2 nor disapprove 22.4 23 23.1 20.5 19.4 Disapprove 20 22.8 18 22.1 21.8 18.7 18 15.5 17.9 Do not know 10 13.6 12.8 10.2 9.1 7.8 8.8

0 January '02 May '02 September '02 January '03

Ethnic Breakdown

7.7 7.3 Up-country Tamil 5.4 79.6 22.4 Do not know 15.6 Muslim 9.4 Disapprove 51.6 7.3 Neither approve nor 1.7 disapprove Tamil 5.2 Approve 85.9 20.1 32.3 Sinhala 10.9 36.2 0 102030405060708090100 %

Norway continuing to facilitate talks.

National Trend

50 44.1 45 40 41.3 38.2 35 Approve

30 29.4 % Neither approve nor 25 22.6 23.3 disapprove Disapprove 20 21.8 21.8 19.7 15 Do not know 13.6 11.9 10 10.7 5

0 September '02 November '02 January '03

Ethnic Breakdown

15.3 9.2 Up-country Tamil 9.3 66.3

23.3 Do not know 16.5 Muslim 10.4 48.8 Disapprove

7.3 1.7 Neither approve nor Tamil 5.2 disapprove 85.9 Approve 20.7 33.6 Sinhala 12.7 32.3

0 20406080100 %

INDIA’S INVOLVEMENT

What is your opinion of the need for India’s involvement in the Sri Lankan peace process?

National Trend

33.8 35 35.5 31.7 Is essential 30 27 32.7

Will add a positive 25 26.1 26.6 impact 20.8 % 19.2 Will have no impact 20 16.2 16.4 17.4 15.6 14.9 16.8 15 Will add a negative 14.3 16.2 impact 13.1 13.5 12.5 Is not essential 10 5.9 9.2 7.1 3.5 8.4 5 Do not know 2.7 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.7 0 May '02 September '02 January '03

Ethnic Breakdown

9.2 23.9 2.9 Up-country Tamil 2.5 16.3 44.3 Do not know 18.7 11.8 8 Is not essential Muslim 1.7 5.6 53.5 Will add a negative 22.3 impact 19.9 4.6 Will have no impact Tamil 2.4 14.9 35.9 Will add a positive 16.7 impact 17.1 7.5 Sinhala 1.6 Is essential 40.1 10.7 0 102030405060 %

RECENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION

If you are aware of the involvement of foreign monitors in monitoring the ceasefire, what is your opinion of the need for such a monitoring mission for the ceasefire agreement to succeed?

National Trend

45 Is essential 39.4 39.3 40.5 41.5 40 37.9 37.5 Will have a positive 33.6 35 impact 31.2 29.7 30 26.7 Will have no impact 26.3 25 25.3 % Will have a negative 20 impact 15 Is not essential 10.3 8.4 10 9.6 5.6 6.7 5.6 7.3 4.6 5.8 7.5 5.2 4.5 Will be a threat to the 5 4.1 4.2 1.9 4.1 3.8 4.2 sovereignty of Sri 1.9 0.6 1.7 0 1.4 1.7 Lanka March '02 July '02 November '02

Ethnic Breakdown

1.1 3.6 Up-country 0 Tamil 4 Will be a threat to the sovereignty 31 of Sri Lanka 56.9 0.9 7.9 Is not essential 0 Muslim 1 1.8 84.2 Will have a negative impact 0 0.8 0 Tamil 0 Will have no impact 11.9 84.5 1.8 10.5 Will have a positive impact 8.7 Sinhala 4.5 41.1 17.2 Is essential 0 20406080100 %

I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement.

National Trend

40 35.5

35 33.2 31.7 29 33.1 30.3 30 27.4 26.8 27.6 Agree 28.9 25 22.5 23.6 21.4 22.8 Neither agree nor disagree % 20 19.2 15.7 Disagree 18 15 18 17.8 14.6 Do not know/Not sure 10

0 May '02 September '02 January '03

Ethnic Breakdown

23.7 2.5 Up-country Tamil 14.7 59.1 22.6 12.4 Muslim Do not know/Not sure 19.4 45.5 Disagree Neither agree nor disagree 19.6 6.7 Agree Tamil 9.7 64

23 30.9 Sinhala 20.1 26.1

0 10203040506070 %

I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement.

National Trend

35 31.4 30.5 28.7 30 28 26 26.6 24.3 Agree 25 26.1 25.7 24.8 23.8 21.3 20 19.7 % 21.4 Neither agree 20.3 nor disagree 19.3 15 Disagree 10 Do not know/Not 5 sure

0 July '02 September '02 November '02 January '03

Ethnic Breakdown

29.9 6.4 Up-country Tamil 16.8 47 27.5 11.5 Muslim Do not know/Not sure 20.9 40.1 Disagree Neither agree nor disagree 24.4 Agree 7.9 Tamil 12.1 55.7 25.5 31.1 Sinhala 20.3 23.1 0 102030405060 %

LTTE

I think the LTTE is the sole representative of the Tamil community.

National Trend

70 56.8 60 54.8 54.5 55 58.9 Agree 50 Neither agree nor disagree % 40 Disagree 30 22.4 17.5 18 16.8 Do not know 20 18.7 11.6 9.3 12.9 10.4 10 11 9.4 8.1 10.5 10 9

0 May '02 September '02 January '03

Ethnic Breakdown

7 37.1 Up-country Tamil 13.2 42.1

27.8 37 Muslim 12.3 Do not know 20.7 Disagree 6.8 6 Tamil 3.7 Neither agree nor 82.7 disagree Agree 8.1 65.6 Sinhala 11.3 12.3 0 20406080100 %

If you are aware that the LTTE recently obtained hi-tech radio equipment, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the Government permitting the importation of this equipment?

National Breakdown

8.8 22.3 Approve Neither approve nor disapprove Disapporve 7.2 Don’t know/ Not sure

61.7

Ethnic Breakdown

8.8 61.7 National 7.2 22.3

2.1 9.1 Up-country Tamil 4.2 84.7 Don’t know/ Not sure 8.5 45.5 Disapporve Muslim 14.7 31.3 Neither approve nor disapprove 12.5 2 Approve Tamil 10.7 74.9 8.8 68.6 Sinhala 6.8 15.8 0 102030405060708090 %

If you are aware that the LTTE recently obtained hi-tech radio equipment, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the Government granting a radio license to the LTTE peace secretariat?

National Breakdown

9.5 22.1 Approve Neither approve nor disapprove Disapporve 7.2 Don’t know/ Not sure 61.2

Ethnic Breakdown

9.5 61.2 National 7.2 22.1

2.8 4.6 Up-country Tamil 4.2 88.4 Don’t know/ Not 5.8 sure 45.9 Muslim 15.4 Disapporve 33 Neither approve 12.5 nor disapprove 2 Tamil 13.3 Approve 72.2 9.2 68.1 Sinhala 6.6 15.5 0 102030405060708090100

If you are aware of the Norwegian Government’s involvement in the importation of the equipment, do you approve or disapprove of the Norwegian Government’s involvement?

National Breakdown

13.2 20.1

Approve Disapprove Don’t know/ Not sure

66.7

Ethnic Breakdown

13.2 National 66.7 20.1

3.8 Up-country Tamil 14.3 81.9 Don’t know/ Not sure 15.1 Disapprove Muslim 58.1 26.9 Approve

0 Tamil0 100 14 Sinhala 72.3 13.7

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 29 Top-Line Results

PEACE TALKS

If you are aware that the Government and the LTTE have agreed to a federal solution within a united Sri Lanka, do you approve or disapprove of this agreement?

National Breakdown

22.1 36.9 Approve

Disapprove

41 Don’t know/ Not sure

Ethnic Breakdown

22.1 National 41 36.9 0 Up-Country Tamil 2.9 97.1

22.3 Don’t know/ Not Muslim 17.5 sure 60.2 Disapprove 16.2 Tamil 8 Approve 75.8 23.6 Sinhala 46.8 29.3

0 20 40 60% 80 100 120

Peace Confidence Index Page 30 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of the decision taken by the Government and the LTTE to accelerate the resettlement of the IDPs, what in your opinion will be the impact of this decision on the peace process?

National Breakdown

60 56

% 30

20 16.8 11 11.3 10

0 Will have a positive Will have no impact Will have a negative Don't know/ Not sure impact impact

Ethnic Breakdown

16.8 11.3 National 11 56 16.7 15.9 Up-Country Tamil 32 30.3 12 Don't know/ Not sure 16.2 Muslim Will have a negative impact 7.2 61.3 Will have no impact Will have a positive impact 15 11.2 Tamil 13 58.4 17.3 10.6 Sinhala 9.4 57.4

0 10203040506070 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 31 Top-Line Results

If you are aware that the Government has asked an international committee of military experts to look at the issue of HSZs, what in your opinion will be the impact of this decision on the peace process?

National Breakdown

45 39.8 40 37.2

25 % 20

15 12.3

10 7.9

0 Will have a positive Will have no impact Will have a negative Don't know/ Not sure impact impact

Ethnic Breakdown

37.2 7.9 National 12.3 39.8 28.6 12.6 Up-Country Tamil 27.2 28 25.1 Don't know/ Not sure 9.9 Will have a negative impact Muslim 16.1 48.9 Will have no impact 14.7 Will have a positive impact 21.1 Tamil 15.1 49 40.7 6.3 Sinhala 10.3 39.5 0 102030405060 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 32 Top-Line Results

Are you aware of the decision to establish a North East Reconstruction Fund (NERF) to be managed by the World Bank?

National Breakdown

42.6 Yes No 57.4

Ethnic Breakdown

57.4 National 42.6

36.5 Up-Country Tamil 63.5 No Yes 45.7 Muslim 52.2

49.1 Tamil 48.9

59.6 Sinhala 40.3

0 10203040506070 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 33 Top-Line Results

Please state your level of satisfaction over the progress of the peace talks.

National Breakdown

50 46.3 45

40 35 30 % 25 18.7 20 15 10.7 8 9 10 6.6 5

0 Highly satisfied Somewhat Neither satisfied Somewhat Highly Don't know/ Not satisfied nor dissatisfied dissatisfied dissatisfied sure

Ethnic Breakdown

10.7 6.6 9 National 18.7 46.3 8 2 0.2 3.6 Up-Country Tamil 14.1 59.3 Don't know/ Not sure 20.8 8.5 Highly dissatisfied 3.1 3.7 Muslim 8.1 Somewhat dissatisfied 51.3 18.5 Neither satisfied nor 7.2 dissatisfied 0.9 Somewhat satisfied 8 Tamil 6.9 55 Highly satisfied 16 11.6 7.6 9.7 Sinhala 20.5 44.6 5.9 0 10203040506070 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 34 Top-Line Results

THE MUSLIM COMMUNITY

Do you think the interest and concerns of the Muslims of the East are being adequately represented in the peace talks?

National Trend

40 36.5 35.6 35 29.6 29.4 30

25 22.9 % 18.9 20 November '02 January '03 15 10

0 Yes No Do not know/Not sure

Ethnic Breakdown

35.6 National 22.9 29.4 23.8 Up-country Tamil 19.3 52.8 Do not know/Not sure 21.9 Muslim 61 No 15.1 33.1 Yes Tamil 15 38.2

37.3 Sinhala 21.4 28.2

0 10203040506070 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 35 Top-Line Results

What in your opinion will be the impact on the peace process, if the interest and concerns of the Muslims of the East are adequately represented in the peace talks?

National Breakdown

40 34.6 35 30

25 % 19.9 20 18.2

15 10 6.3 5

0 Will have a positive Will have no impact Will have negative Don't know/Not sure impact impact

Ethnic Breakdown

34.6 National 18.2 6.3 19.9 9.1 6 Up-country Tamil 17.3 28.1 Don't know/Not sure 2.4 Will have negative impact Muslim 2.1 6.8 Will have no impact 18.4 Will have a positive impact 15.3 3.4 Tamil 7.9 32.5 38.9 20.7 Sinhala 5.5 18.7

0 1020304050 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 36 Top-Line Results

LIVING CONDITIONS

Please rank the following issues according to your order of importance

National Breakdown

60 48.2 50

% 30 18.8 20 16.5

10 3.5 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.5 0.5 1 1.7 0

Security conflict Terrorism Education Corruption The ethnic pollution Democracy Cost of living Human rights Environmental Law and order Unemployment

Ethnic Breakdown

2.4 0.6 2.5 1.8 0.9 Up-country Tamil 0.7 0.8 1.8 48.4 27.8 11.6 Human rights 1.8 Democracy 0.2 2.6 1 Law and order 1.7 Muslim 0.9 Environmental pollution 7 4.2 46.1 Corruption 19.5 13.7 Security 2.9 0 Terrorism 0 0 Education 0.8 Tamil 17.5 0.9 Cost of living 2 27.5 Unemployment 16.4 30 The ethnic conflict 1.6 1.2 2.7 0.4 2.3 Sinhala 1.1 2.3 3.7 49.9 15.6 18.7 0 102030405060 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 37 Top-Line Results

In your opinion what kind of impact has the peace process had on your living conditions?

National Breakdown

40 33.9 35 29 30 24.1 25 % 20

15 8.9 10 5 0 Has had a positive Has had no impact Has had a negative Don't know/Not sure impact impact

Ethnic Breakdown

8.9 29 National 33.9 24.1 3.8 Up-country Tamil 6.9 39.5 Don't know/Not sure 46.1 12.6 Has had a negative 13.1 Muslim 44.8 impact 24.1 Has had no impact 0 4.3 Tamil Has had a positive 11.3 impact 81.1 9.7 33.2 Sinhala 34.5 18.5

0 102030405060708090 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 38 Top-Line Results

OPPOSITION’S ROLE

If you are aware that the leader of the opposition Mr. Mahinda Rajapaksa visited Jaffna recently, do you approve or disapprove of his visit?

National Breakdown

23.9

Approve Disapprove 6.8 Don't know/ Not sure 69.3

Ethnic Breakdown

23.9 National 6.8 69.3

21.4 Up-country Tamil 6.8 71.5 Don't know/ Not sure 14.3 Disapprove Muslim 5.8 Approve 79.9 42.4 Tamil 11 45.7 23.1 Sinhala 6.6 69.9

0 20406080100

Peace Confidence Index Page 39 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of talks between the SLFP and the JVP about an alliance between their two parties, what in your opinion will be the impact of this on the peace process?

National Breakdown

40 36.2 35

30 24.1 25 19.8 % 20 15.4 15 10

0 Will have a positive Will have no impact Will have a negative Don’t know/Not sure impact impact

Ethnic Breakdown

36.2 National 24.1 15.4 19.8 22.9 65.8 Up-country Tamil 5.8 4.3 Don’t know/Not sure 21.5 Muslim 47.9 Will have a negative impact 20.3 8 Will have no impact Will have a positive impact 32.9 47.1 Tamil 10.1 6.4 37.6 20.3 Sinhala 15.8 21.5

0 10203040506070 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 40 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of JVP’s current campaign against the peace process and the cost of living, a) Please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the JVP’s campaign against the peace process?

National Breakdown

50 46.6 45 40 35 30 24.6 % 25 20 17.5

15 10.9 10 5 0 Approve Neither approve nor Disapprove Don't know/Not sure disapprove

Ethnic Breakdown

10.9 National 46.6 17.5 24.6 6.6 86.4 Up-country Tamil 3.2 3.7 Don't know/Not sure 10.5 58.7 Disapprove Muslim 14.6 Neither approve nor disapprove 16.2 Approve 8.9 85 Tamil 2.5 3.7 11.3 41.1 Sinhala 19.5 27.7 0 20406080100 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 41 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of JVP’s current campaign against the peace process and the cost of living, b) Please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the JVP’s campaign against the cost of living?

National Breakdown

70 61.5 60

50 40 % 30

20 16.2 13.2 8.8 10

0 Approve Neither approve nor Disapprove Don't know/Not sure disapprove

Ethnic Breakdown

8.8 16.2 National 13.2 61.5 4.7 20.4 Up-country Tamil 4.4 69.7 Don't know/Not sure 5.9 Disapprove Muslim 18.1 15.2 Neither approve nor disapprove 60.8 Approve 11.7 20.1 Tamil 1.6 66.6 9 15.6 Sinhala 14.4 60.7

0 1020304050607080 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 42 Top-Line Results

JAPAN’S ROLE

If you are aware of Japan’s key role in rehabilitation and reconstruction in the North and East, do you approve or disapprove of Japan’s role in rehabilitation and reconstruction?

National Breakdown

14.2 15.3 Approve Disapprove Don't know/ Not sure 70.5

Ethnic Breakdown

14.2 National 15.3 70.5

7.3 Up-country Tamil 4.6 88.2 Don't know/ Not sure 2.8 Disapprove Muslim 1.5 Approve 93.8 10.9 Tamil 0 89.1 15.5 Sinhala 18.9 65.1

0 20406080100

District sample (weighted) distribution in January 2003

DISTRICT TOTAL Colombo 199 Gampaha 172 Kalutara 86 Kandy 97 Matale 33 Nuwara Eliya 49 Galle 76 Hambantota 39 Matara 58 Anuradhapura 56 Polonnaruwa 27 Kurunegala 112 Puttlam 51 Badulla 54 Monaragala 28 Ratnapura 77 Kegalle 62 Amparai 42 Batticaloa 38 Trincomalee 30 Vavuniya 11 NATIONAL 1397

Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in January 2003

ETHNICITY TOTAL Sinhala 1165 Tamil 87 Muslim 72 Up-country Tamil 72 NATIONAL 1397

ii Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

Sampling Methodology

Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations in public confidence levels towards the peace process over time it is essential that the study be conducted repetitively with equal pauses during the study. Thus conducting the study bi-monthly with the use of a clearly defined and constant sample frame during each phase of the study ensures this fact.

The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of approximately 1600 respondents during each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to capture the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is undeniable that an individual’s opinion on the peace process is influenced by a number of factors, however the ethnic factor, which is the most important and influential, is the sole factor that has been accommodated in this model.

The total sample is distributed among 22 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, but in the Amparai, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar districts the entire area is not covered as a result of the prevailing conflict situation and logistical difficulties. The sample size is assigned to each stratum is approximately equal to the population proportions. However, some districts are over sampled due to the ethnic heterogeneity but the over sampling biases are eliminated by weighting the sample.

A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a district only if the population proportion of that particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the primary sampling unit using the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri Lanka 1996’ published by the Department of Census and Statistics as the sample frame.

To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensuring a maximum dispersion of the sample within a DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a GND. Within a given GND the enumerator is advised to select a starting point randomly and proceed with interviews using the random walk (right hand rule) technique in order to assure the random selection of households.

In the case of urban areas the interviewer is instructed to skip a house while selecting the households, thus resulting in the interview taking place at every alternative household. As the final sampling unit, the respondent is chosen from the household using the ‘KRISH’ grid thus ensuring that each member of the household has an equal chance of being selected to the PCI sample.

The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. It is noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model does not support the regional level analysis at the same level of precision.

Social Indicator (SI) is an independent social research organisation, which conducts polls on socio-economic and political issues. Operating under the Board of Directors of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA), SI was established in September 1999, and filled a longstanding vacuum for a permanent, professional and independent polling facility in Sri Lanka on social and political issues. Polling is an instrument of empowerment, a means by which the silent majority of the public can express their opinions on issues affecting them. Our mission is to conduct surveys on key social issues, thereby providing a means through which public opinion can influence the public policy debate.

Published by: Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.

Tel: 370472 Email: [email protected] Fax: 370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org