Digitized by Noolaham Foundation. Noolaham.Org | Aavanaham.Org Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results

Digitized by Noolaham Foundation. noolaham.org | aavanaham.org Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results

CONTENTS

• INTRODUCTION 01

• KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS 02

• FINDINGS AT A GLANCE 07

• PEACE CONFIDENCE INDEX (PCI) 11 TOP-LINE RESULTS

IMPORTANT ISSUES 11

SOLUTIONS 12

CONFIDENCE 14

CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT (CFA) 23

SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION (SLMM) 29

FOREIGN INVOLVEMENT 34

• POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

KADIRGAMAR KILLING 39

JOINT MECHANISM 41

• ANNEX

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INTRODUCTION OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of public confidence in the peace process using a set of standardized questions, which remain unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of questions related to recent social, economic and political developments in order to gauge public opinion of the peace process, which by definition will change from one wave to another.

Such information, collected over a period of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a useful barometer of the opinions of Sri Lankan polity, and ensure that the collective opinions of the public are given due importance and incorporated into the policy debate.

SCOPE & METHODOLOGY

The survey is carried out using a structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face interviews amongst a 1707 randomly selected sample. This survey was conducted among 21 administrative districts, however, in the districts of Jaffna, Vavuniya, Batticoloa and Ampara, only the Government controlled areas were surveyed. Data is weighted to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of the districts in which the sample was surveyed.

This is the twentieth wave of the PCI study, which was first conducted in May 2001.This publication presents only the top-line results of the September 2005 survey.

The results of these twenty waves offer us data for a comparative study on changing public opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of war and peace to the current political developments. The results are subjected to a 3% margin of error.

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KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS JUNE 2005 – SEPTEMBER 2005

• As the crisis in the UPFA government reached a flashpoint or breaking point today, senior minister and one time presidential confidant Mangala Samaraweera resigned from his media portfolio while President Kumaratunga reiterated her determination to go ahead with the controversial Joint Mechanism and vowed to pursue the path of peace. (07 June 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 08 June 2005) • As the government and the country were embroiled in one of the gravest crises today, the four Mahanayake Theras in an unprecedented move issued a tough statement, telling President Chandrika Kumaratunga they were strongly opposed to the proposed Post-tsunami Operational Management Structure (P-TOMS) or Joint Mechanism with the LTTE. (09 June 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 10 June 2005) • A crisis ridden government was shaken at its foundation today when the JVP gave an ultimatum to President Chandrika Kumaratunga that it would quit the coalition on June 16 if the joint mechanism proposal was not withdrawn by midnight on June 15. (10 June 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 11 June 2005) • As the deadline for the JVP’s withdrawal from the government neared, President Chandrika Kumaratunga today accused her main coalition partner of trying to thwart the proposed tsunami relief aid deal by falsely claiming it will lead to a separate homeland for the LTTE. (12 June 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 13 June 2005) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga today vowed to SLFP Parliamentarians and electoral organizers she would sign the Post-Tsunami Operations Management Structure (P-TOMS) before the end of this month irrespective of objections or obstructions by any one. Meanwhile, UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe today pledged support to the Post-Tsunami Operational Management Structure proposed by President Kumaratunga for the disbursement of tsunami aid to the North-East. (13 June 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 14 June 2005) • Muslim ministers are insisting on that the government amend the proposed Post- Tsunami Operational Management Structure (P-TOMS), to ensure more roles for Muslims in the apex bodies coming under the mechanism. (Daily Mirror on 20 June 2005) • LTTE's political wing leader S. P. Thamilselvan has reiterated the President's stance that the proposed Post- Tsunami Operational Management Structure (P-TOMS) was not a political agreement but an administrative arrangement to grant relief to December 26 Tsunami survivors. (Daily News on 20 June 2005) • KILINOCHCHI: Tamil Tiger rebels asked Sri Lanka Sunday not to "politicise" tsunami relief, but said working with Colombo to distribute foreign aid could help build confidence among the warring parties. The rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) said they invited Colombo to jointly distribute relief to survivors of the December 26 tsunami but regretted that six months later the government has still taken no action. (The Island on 20 June 2005) • The Post Tsunami Operations Management Structure (P-TOMS) has been finalised and has only to be signed between the Government and the LTTE and cannot be amended to accommodate Muslim aspirations, Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister Vidar Helgesen told Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) Leader Rauff Hakeem last night. (Daily Mirror on 21 June 2005) • The Tigers have reiterated their opposition to expand the proposed tsunami aid sharing agreement, with the government, to accommodate Muslims as an equal partner. (The Island on 24 June 2005) • The Mahanayake of Asgiriya Ven. Udugama Sri Buddharakitta Thera yesterday told President Chandrika Kumaratunga that she should go ahead with the P-TOMS agreement even though it was too late. The prelate who blessed the President also told her he believed there was no threat to the sovereignty of Sri Lanka in the agreement. (Daily Mirror on 24 June 2005) • PRESIDENT Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga met with Minister Ferial Ashraff and a delegation of her party on Tuesday as part of a series of ongoing consultations on the proposed Tsunami Relief Council (P- TOMS). Minister Ashraff re-iterated a number of issues concerning the Muslim community with regard to the ethnic conflict, tsunami recovery and reconstruction. (Daily News on 24 June 2005) • THE Government yesterday signed the Post-Tsunami Operational Management Structure (P-TOMS) document. The document was sent through Norwegian facilitators to Kilinochchi to get the LTTE's signature. Mahaweli and River Basin Minister and Leader of the House Maithreepala Sirisena disclosed to the media that the MoU for the establishment the P-TOMS was signed after it was presented in Parliament. (Daily News on 25 June 2005) • The JVP yesterday said it would challenge the P-TOMS agreement in courts today with the support of other political and religious leaders. (Daily Mirror on 27 June 2005) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga has reassured Muslim ministers that amendments would be made to the P-TOMS agreement to accommodate the needs and aspirations of the community. (Daily Mirror on 29 June 2005) Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005

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• The main opposition UNP yesterday launched a fierce attack on Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar, alleging he had tried to undermine the ceasefire agreement and was now not doing his duty to promote the P-TOMS agreement. (Daily Mirror on 29 June 2005) • The JVP yesterday said it would contest future elections on its own and gave an open invitation to the SLFPers who were against P-TOMS to join the party. (Daily Mirror on 30 June 2005) • Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar yesterday accused the LTTE of continuing to carry out criminal acts with impunity despite the signing of the P-TOMS. “If the LTTE is proved to be behind the killings then it goes without saying that the LTTE is still acting with impunity despite signing the P-TOMS”, the Minister told the Daily Mirror. “Is one side with all the guns and bombs acting with impunity?” he queried. (Daily Mirror on 02 July 2005) • The Post-Tsunami Operational Management Structure (P-TOMS) signed between the Government and the LTTE was presented to Parliament along with its signatures. Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse tabled a copy of the P-TOMS document with signatures at the commencement of Parliament sittings yesterday. (Daily News on 06 July 2005) • Posing the biggest legal challenge to the controversial P-TOMS agreement, 14 JVP parliamentarians yesterday filed a fundamental rights petition in the Supreme Court, challenging the P-TOMS’ legality on the basis that its formation was outside the scope of parliament and the country’s constitution. (Daily Mirror on 06 July 2005) • The Supreme Court yesterday granted leave to proceed with the fundamental rights violation petitions filed by 39 JVP Parliamentarians and one Buddhist monk along with a fisherman of the JHU, against the P-TOMS agreement for alleged infringement of the right to equality and protection from discrimination as guaranteed in the Constitution. (Daily Mirror on 07 July 2005) • Four LTTE members, including two senior cadres were killed when a group of armed persons suspected to be Karuna’s men attacked them using hand grenades and T-56 rifles yesterday morning in the Uppuweli police area in Trincomalee. (Daily Mirror on 11 July 2005) • The Government has taken additional measures to beef up security in Trincomalee amidst the spate of attacks by suspected LTTE cadres on troops manning security in the area, Military spokesman Brigadier Daya Ratnayake said. (Daily News on 14 July 2005) • PRESIDENT Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga expressed deep concern and sadness by the violence and loss of life occurring in and around Trincomalee, precipitated by the assassinations of several senior unarmed political cadres of the LTTE in their Trincomalee office earlier this week, the President's House said in a media release. (Daily News on 15 July 2005) • In a widely awaited and significant ruling, the Supreme Court on July 15 stayed the operation of four crucial clauses of the Memorandum of Understanding for the establishment of the Post Tsunami Operational Management Structure (P-TOMS) until final determination of the fundamental rights violation petitions filed by 39 JVP parliamentarians. (Daily Mirror on 16 July 2005) • PRESIDENT Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga's powers to enter into a MoU on the P-TOMS has been upheld by the Supreme Court both in respect of her executive powers and on the basis that it has been entered with the LTTE, legal sources said yesterday. (Daily News on 16 July 2005) • UNP and Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe has thanked all who joined the UNP's eleven day march from Devinuwara to Colombo, the Janabala Meheyuma, which he said was the most successful of public protests in the history of the country. (The Island on 16 July 2005) • Mixed reactions came yesterday to the Supreme Court interim ruling on the P-TOMS agreement with the JVP saying an arbitrary decision by President Kumaratunga had been overruled while the TNA warned the country was getting deeper in the mire. Seeing the court order as a victory JVP Parliamentarian Vijitha Herath said it was however just the first step in a bigger struggle. (Daily Mirror on 16 July 2005) • The Supreme Court ruling that the Oslo-arranged Cease-fire Agreement (CFA) didn’t violate the Constitution is a huge political victory for the UNP, particularly its leader Ranil Wickremesinghe. Despite the suspension of five provisions in the P-TOMS agreement, the Supreme Court ruled that the CFA entered into on February 22, 2002 would continue to be in full force. The Supreme Court also ruled that the tsunami aid sharing deal was not outside the law as it was an arrangement to provide humanitarian assistance based on the CFA. (The Island on 17 July 2005) • LTTE Political Wing Leader S. P. Thamilselvan said that following July 15 Supreme Court order staying some clause of the P-TOMS, his organisation had shelved all hopes on the proposed administrative structure. Thamilselvan addressing a press conference in Kilinochchi after a four-hour meeting with 21 TNA MPs, said that the LTTE has no further hopes on the P-TOMS. (The Island on 18 July 2005)

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• SLFP General Secretary and Mahaweli Minister Maithripala Sirisena said President Chandrika Kumaratunga was not harassing Premier Mahinda Rajapakse and that the accusations on 'Helping Hambantota' had been created by the UNP, while another group of the UNP was trying to say that it had come from the President. He said neither the President nor the Prime Minister was foolish and he accused the UNP and its propaganda machinery of being behind it. (The Island on 25 July 2005) • The government is making ambitious plans to resettle thousands of Muslims forced out from the Jaffna peninsula, Mannar and Vavuniya (north) by the LTTE in late 1990. Well informed sources said that the LTTE was unlikely to support a major resettlement project in the Jaffna peninsula. Relief, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Ministry Secretary M. S. Jayasinghe who recently signed the P-TOMS agreement on behalf of the government, has sought the assistance of the Peace Secretariat to implement the resettlement plan. (The Island on 25 July 2005) • President Kumaratunga said yesterday she was ready for high-level talks with the LTTE to review the ceasefire agreement with a view to improving the security situation and building greater confidence. (Daily Mirror on 26 July 2005) • The United States yesterday welcomed the signing of the P-TOMS agreement between the government and the LTTE and said it hoped this would lead to progress in the broader peace process. (Daily Mirror on 28 July 2005) • The LTTE has rejected President Chandrika Kumaratunga's proposal to renegotiate the Ceasefire Agreement -- signed on February 23, 2002 -- to rectify certain flaws, which she said, had come to light in the last three and a half years of its existence. The LTTE's rejection came in a special interview on Tuesday given to the Tamil daily Sudar Oli by Anton Balasingham, the LTTE's London-based chief negotiator and ideologue. (Daily Mirror on 28 July 2005) • The ruling SLFP came together in a show of strength yesterday to nominate Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse as its candidate for the next presidential election and Anura Bandaranaike for the premiership – while appealing to other parties including the JVP and the rebel factions in the UNP to join forces with the SLFP. (Daily Mirror on 29 July 2005) • Jaffna police sought a special court order last night to remove an EPDP member’s body which was placed in front of the Jaffna SLMM office by protesting EPDP members. (Daily Mirror on 30 July 2005) • Government spokesman Nimal Siripala de Silva yesterday ruled out the return of the JVP to the government fold in the run-up to the presidential election for which no date has yet been announced by the Elections Commissioner. The polls chief maintained his silence telling this reporter ``be patient.’’ Asked ``how long must we be patient?, he responded avadiyen inna! (stay awake!). (The Island on 31 July 2005) • The interim order on certain clauses of the P-TOMS would prevent the participation of the LTTE in rehabilitation efforts, which would be inimical not merely for post-tsunami reconstruction in the North and East but also impact negatively on the Ceasefire Agreement and a negotiated political settlement, Relief, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Secretary M.S. Jayasinghe stated in his statement of objections filed yesterday in the Supreme Court. (Daily News on 02 August 2005) • In an apparent setback to the LTTE, a senior LTTE leader and the head of its special task force has reportedly deserted the organization along with deputy LTTE head of the Jaffna intelligence unit, military sources said. (Daily Mirror on 04 August 2005) • Security was beefed up and a curfew imposed in Jaffna following the murder of Superintendent of Police Charles Wijewardena by the LTTE and the increasing tension in the area, a military source said yesterday (5). The curfew was imposed shortly after a mob abducted, beat and hacked to death police Superintendent Wijewardena late Thursday while he was investigating the accidental shooting to death of a barber. (The Island on 06 August 2005) • While President Chandrika Kumaratunga was making several public statements that the next Presidential election would be held in 2006 not this year, JHU General Secretary Ven. Omalpe Sobhitha Thera yesterday filed a fundamental rights violation petition seeking a declaration by the Supreme Court that the next Presidential election should be held this year. (Daily Mirror on 04 August 2005) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga told peace facilitator Norway yesterday her government would go ahead with the implementation of the P-TOMS agreement within the parameters of the recent order given by the Supreme Court. (Daily Mirror on 06 August 2005) • Foreign minister Lakshman Kadirgamar was shot dead by a suspected LTTE sniper at his private residence at No. 36, Bullers Lane, Colombo 7.Mr. Kadirgamar, who had presided last night at the launch of a journal he edited, returned to his private residence for a swim and was going back to his official residence, when the sniper shot him thrice in the head and the chest, apparently from a neighbouring residence, where the police later found ammunition and a tripod. (Daily Mirror on 13 August 2005)

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• THE Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission Chief Hagrup Haukland yesterday called for a halt to the killing spree in the East that has raised tensions in the area and threatened the stability of the ceasefire. Speaking to the Daily News after his three-day tour in Ampara and Batticaloa this week, Haukland said: "Frequent killings in the Eastern region are complicating and disturbing the SLMM very much." (Daily News on 13 August 2005) • A well-known Tamil woman broadcaster and her husband who is an activist of the PLOTE were brutally killed yesterday by unidentified gunmen at their Bambalapitiya residence adjoining a communications centre run by them. (Daily Mirror on 13 August 2005) • Elections Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake has been advised by Attorney-General (AG) K. C. Kamalasabayson to retain private counsel to present his case before court in actions pending relating to the date of the forthcoming presidential election. Elections Department sources said that the Commissioner had received this advice following a meeting with the AG on Friday. The Commissioner has been advised to file his objections to the JHU petition by August 15 as the case has been listed for hearing on August 22. (The Island on 14 August 2005) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga yesterday said there was clear evidence that the LTTE was involved in the killing of Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar though it denied the charge, but she pledged to continue the negotiation process aimed at seeking lasting peace. (Daily Mirror on 15 August 2005) • In a major breakthrough in the investigation into the killing of Jaffna SSP Charles Wijewardane, a special Police-CID-Army combined team arrested the main LTTE suspect yesterday morning in Jaffna. (Daily Mirror on 18 August 2005) • The LTTE claimed yesterday the main suspect arrested by police over the Charles Wijewardene killing was an innocent person and demanded his immediate release. (Daily Mirror on 19 August 2005) • The state of Emergency imposed by President Chandrika Kumaratunga in the aftermath of the slaying of Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar was approved by Parliament yesterday with an overwhelming majority of 103 votes. (Daily Mirror on 19 August 2005) • The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) have agreed to meet Government negotiators to review the implementation of the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) following last Friday's assassination of Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar. (Daily News on 20 August 2005) • The two major political parties in the country, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), and the United National Party (UNP), have decided to commence their respective presidential election campaigns this week. (Daily Mirror on 22 August 2005) • Norwegian facilitators have formally conveyed to the government the LTTE’s willingness to meet a State delegation to discuss the implementation of the ceasefire agreement, Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister Vidar Helgeson told the Daily Mirror yesterday. (Daily Mirror on 23 August 2005) • Sharp differences seem to have arisen between the army and the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) over reports that the LTTE had advanced its Forward Defence Line (FDL) at Nagarkovil, in violation the Cease Fire Agreement. (Daily Mirror on 24 August 2005) • The Government asserted yesterday that it was ready to begin talks with the LTTE to review the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) as soon as an agreement is reached on the venue. (Daily News on 26 August 2005) • Foreign Minister Anura Bandaranaike yesterday put his foot down against Norway—sounding more on the lines of slain Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar-- and warned the facilitator had far exceeded its role of “post box” in the country’s peace bid. (Daily Mirror on 26 August 2005) • THE Supreme Court yesterday ended the controversy surrounding the date of the next Presidential Election, ruling that it should be held this year. The Five - Judge Bench of the Supreme Court allowing the Fundamental Rights application of the Jathika Hela Urumaya directed the first respondent Elections Commissioner to take steps to hold the election in the current year in terms of the Article 31 (3) of the Constitution and the applicable law. (Daily News on 27 August 2005) • The JVP and JHU will field Presidential candidates for the forthcoming Presidential polls if the UNP and SLFP Presidential candidates do not accept their proposals. (Daily Mirror on 29 August 2005) • The Army has begun to question the line taken by the police in their investigations into the assassination of Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar on Friday August 12, by the LTTE. They believe that the police are trying to blame them for the security lapses discovered after the killing. (28 August 2005)-(The Island on 29 August 2005) • The LTTE, while ruling out the possibility of no-man’s land as a venue, has expressed serious doubts on the talks to review the ceasefire agreement taking place any time soon in view of the upcoming Presidential elections. (Daily Mirror on 30 August 2005)

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• The government yesterday said a firm no to the LTTE proposal for the ceasefire talks to be held in the Tiger-controlled Kilinochchi and insisted the venue should be Omanthai. (Daily Mirror on 02 September 2005) • Norwegian efforts to get both the government and the LTTE to agree on a venue to hold talks to review the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) are continuing despite the government rejecting Oslo while the rebels had turned down Omanthai as a possible location. (Daily Mirror on 02 September 2005) • Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse yesterday pledged that if elected as President, he would enter into a dialogue directly with LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran without any foreign facilitators. (Daily Mirror on 02 September 2005) • SLFP’s presidential candidate and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse has made major concessions to the JVP and will among other things cancel the P-TOMS agreement with the LTTE in exchange for the JVP’s support at the upcoming presidential poll, the party announced yesterday. (Daily Mirror on 06 September 2005) • Two youths believed to be linked to LTTE intelligence operations and working at a plastics factory in Enderamulla were forcibly taken and killed at Ragama on Monday night by an unidentified gang who posed as police. (Daily Mirror on 07 September 2005) • Constituent parties of the PA have told SLFP Presidential Candidate Mahinda Rajapakse that they could not agree with the policies of the JVP and JHU. (Daily Mirror on 08 September 2005) • SLFP Presidential Candidate and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse yesterday signed a deal with the JVP, pledging among other things to scrap the P-TOMS agreement with the LTTE. Meanwhile, the LTTE has warned that SLFP Presidential Candidate Mahinda Rajapakse’s decision to agree to the conditions of the JVP and the JHU in relation to the P-TOMS deal and the peace process proved once again that the Tamils were being pushed towards gaining their rights on their own. (Daily Mirror on 09 September 2005) • Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse yesterday gave an assurance that his pact with the JVP would not lead to the resumption of hostilities. Addressing a large gathering at Temple Trees, shortly after signing the agreement, he dismissed opposition claims that this was an agreement for war. "This agreement is not my individual victory; it is a victory for all Sri Lankans. It will bring peace and prosperity to the country. (The Island on 09 September 2005) • The UNP plans to rectify the controversial tsunami aid sharing deal a.k.a Post Tsunami Operational Management Structure (P-TOMS). "We agree with the P-TOMS concept," UNP frontliner Mano Wijeratne, MP, said, acknowledging the need to amend the Oslo-arranged deal and make it operational. This would be done after the forthcoming presidential election, he said, adding that they would discuss the required amendments with the LTTE. The outcome of the poll is a foregone conclusion, he said. (The Island on 09 September 2005) • The LTTE yesterday turned down a Norwegian request to hold talks at the Bandaranaike International Airport to review the Ceasefire Agreement, saying the security and the environment at the location are not conducive for such a discussion. (Daily Mirror on 09 September 2005) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga yesterday put her foot down against the newly signed pact between Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse and the JVP saying that several clauses contradicted the accepted policies of the SLFP and reiterated that she was in charge of the party committee drawing up the manifesto for the presidential election. (Daily Mirror on 10 September 2005) • Days after President Chandrika Kumaratunga launched an attack on SLFP Presidential candidate Mahinda Rajapakse, Minister Anura Bandaranaike joined the battle yesterday saying he had lost interest in the presidential campaign and the President too was equally disillusioned about the manner Mr. Rajapakse was conducting his campaign. (Daily Mirror on 13 September 2005) • The Elections Commissioner could take steps to hold the Presidential Election in terms of the Presidential Elections Act as there was no order against the Commissioner in the Judgement in the Fundamental Rights application filed by the Ven. Omalpe Sobhitha Thera, Supreme Court officials said. (Daily News on 13 September 2005) • Despite strong protests by President Chandrika Kumaratunga and running mate Anura Bandaranaike, presidential candidate Mahinda Rajapakse yesterday went ahead to seal his controversial agreement with the nationalist JHU by placing the document before the Sacred Tooth Relic at the Dalada Maligawa in Kandy. (Daily Mirror on 14 September 2005) • The abolition of the P-TOMS agreement, major revisions of the ceasefire deal and the rejection of any self- governance or homeland concept are among the tough conditions in the agreement between presidential candidate Mahinda Rajapakse and the JHU. (Daily Mirror on 14 September 2005) • Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse and Jathika Hela Urumaya Secretary Ven. Dr. Omalpe Sobitha Thera yesterday exchanged their policy statements at the foot of the Wariyapola Sri Sumangala statue within the precincts of the Sri Dalada Maligawa, Kandy. (Daily News on 14 September 2005) Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005

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FINDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CONDUCTED FROM 09TH SEPTEMBER 2005 TO 22ND SEPTEMBER 2005

The following are the significant trends observed in the PCI September 2005 survey.

♦ When asked to rate five national issues according to their degree of importance, the economy (28.9%) and the peace process (27.8%) was rated the highest followed by law and order (20.1%). From an ethnic perspective, Sinhala community gives high priority to the economy (29.5%) followed by the peace process (27.3%) and law and order (21%). On the contrary Tamil community gives high priority for the peace process (31%) followed by the economy (24.5%) and law and order (18.4%). The Muslim community gives high priority to the economy (27.6%) and the peace process (27.6%) followed by the tsunami recovery (17%). Amongst the Up-country Tamil community the peace process (32%) is given high priority followed by the economy (27.2%) and the tsunami recovery (17.8%).(Ref. Page 11)

♦ The public support for a negotiated peace settlement has increased when compared to the PCI findings in March and June 2005. Out of the total surveyed population, 87.1% of Sri Lankans believe that the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through negotiations. This is a significant increase since March 2005 (72.4%). As the ethnic perspective reveals, a majority of all the ethnic groups support the idea of a permanent peace settlement through negotiations (Sinhala-84.9%, Tamil-95.8%, Muslim- 96.1%, Up-country Tamil-98.7%). It is noteworthy that the Muslim support that has witnessed a decreased in June 2005 have again seems to have increased in September 2005 (June Muslim- 46.8%, September Muslim- 96.1%). (Ref. Page 12-13)

♦ When asked about the Governments commitment to the peace process, 49.7% agree that the Government is committed to find peace through talks, which is a 7% increase since June 2005 (42.7%). However, this is still a decrease since March 2005 (53.4%). According to the ethnic perspective, a majority of Sinhala (52.8%) and Muslim (49%) community agree that the Government is committed to find peace through talks. It is noteworthy that the Sinhala community who agree have significantly increased since June 2005 (43.6%). A majority of Tamil (47.8%) community disagree with the above opinion. Even amongst the Tamil community, the disagreement has seen an increase since June 2005 (42.8%). A majority of Up-country Tamil community (42.1%) don’t know or not sure of the Government’s commitment to the peace process. Interestingly the percentages of Up-country Tamils who agree (June-33.9%, September-38.2%) and don’t know (June- 38%, September-42.1%) have witnessed a slight increase while the ones who disagree have witnessed a decrease since June 2005 (June- 28.2%, September- 19.7%).(Ref. Page 14-15)

♦ A majority of Sri Lankans (60.7%) agree that the government is capable in finding peace through talks. This is a significant increase since June 2005 (48%). The ethnic perspective reveals that a majority of Sinhala (62.4%), Tamil (56.2%) and Muslim (60.6%) communities agree that the Government is capable of finding peace through talks. Interestingly, the agreement amongst the Sinhala (June-45.6%, September-62.4%) community have significantly gone up while the agreement amongst the Muslim (June- 69.9%, September- 60.6%) community have witnessed a down fall since June 2005. A majority of Up-country Tamil community (42.1%) don’t know/or not sure of the Governments capability in finding peace through talks. Nevertheless, even amongst the Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005

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Up-country Tamil community the agreement (June- 32.4%, September- 38.2%) has increased while the disagreement (June- 25%, September- 19.7%) has decreased since June 2005. (Ref. Page 16-17)

♦ When asked about the LTTE’s commitment to find peace through talks, a majority of Sri Lankans (62.6%) disagree that the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks. This is a significant increase of opinion since June 2005 (46.2%). As the ethnic breakdown shows a majority of Sinhala (72.8%) community disagree on the LTTE’s commitment to find peace through talks. It is noteworthy that the disagreement amongst the Sinhala community has significantly increased since June 2005 (June-55.4%, September-72.8%). Amongst the Tamil community, a majority of them agree (66.7%) that the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks. However the Tamils who agree have gone down since June 2005 (June- 76.2%, September-66.7%). The opinion of the Muslim community also shows interesting developments. The Muslim disagreement (June-31.4%, September- 43.6%) on the LTTE’s commitment to find peace through talks has increased, while their agreement (June-38%, September-25.7%) has decreased since June 2005. A majority of Up-country Tamil community agree (48%) that the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks, which is a decrease since June 2005 (53.7%). The Up-country Tamils who don’t know or not sure have increased since June 2005 (June-38.8%, September- 46.7%).(Ref. Page 18-19)

♦ Sri Lankans seems to have divided opinion with regard to LTTE’s capability in finding peace through talks (Agree- 36.7%, Disagree- 34.3%, Don’t know/Not sure- 29%). From an ethnic perspective, a majority of Tamil (54.7%) community agree that the LTTE is capable of finding peace through talks. However amongst the Sinhala community 34.4% agree while 37.7% disagree on the LTTE’s capability in finding peace through talks. Likewise amongst the Muslim community 38.4% agree while 35.4% disagree. A majority of Up-country Tamil community (51.4%) don’t know or not sure about the LTTE’s capability in finding peace through talks. (Ref. Page 20)

♦ When asked how close they think the country is to a final settlement to the ethnic conflict, compared with the situation a year ago, 39.6% of Sri Lankans say that the country is ‘Not close at all’ to a final settlement. However 24.2% of Sri Lankans say that the country is ‘very close’ to a final settlement. It is interesting to note that the percentage who believes it is ‘very close’ have significantly gone down since June 2005 (June- 31.1%, September- 24.2%). Likewise the percentage who believes that it is ‘not close at all’ have significantly gone up since June 2005 (June- 24.6%, September- 39.6%). The ethnic perspective shows that a majority of the Sinhala (39.8%) and Tamil (48.6%) communities believe that the country is ‘not close at all’ in approaching a final settlement to the ethnic conflict. A majority of the Up-country Tamil community (40.8%) believe that the country is very close in approaching a final settlement to the ethnic conflict. The Muslim community seems to have divided opinion in this regard (Very close- 35%, Remains the same- 16.5%, Not close at all- 35%, Don’t know/Not sure- 13.6%).(Ref. Page 21)

♦ Asked as to who should be involved in negotiations, 24.2% of Sri Lankans believe that only the Government and the LTTE should be involved in negotiations. However another 23.7% believe that the Government, Opposition, LTTE, Tamil and Muslim parties and international third party should be involved in negotiations. A majority of Tamil community (44%) believe that only the Government, LTTE and International third party should be involved in negotiations. A majority of Muslim (46.1%) and Up-country Tamil (36%) community believe that the Government, Opposition, LTTE, Tamil and Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005

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Muslim parties and an international third party should be involved in negotiations. (Ref. Page 22)

♦ Of the people who are aware about the CFA, a majority (60.7%) believes that it has brought many benefits to the ordinary citizen. However this is a decrease since June 2005 (68.8%). A majority of all the ethnic groups seems to believe that the ceasefire agreement have brought benefits to the ordinary citizen. It is noteworthy that the percentage of Sinhala (June-65.8%, September-57.2%), Tamil (June-76.4%, September- 72.8%) and Muslim (June-77%, September-67.9%) communities who believe that the CFA has brought benefit to Sri Lankans have slightly decreased since June 2005. In contrast, the percentage of Up-country Tamils who think the CFA has benefited Sri Lankans have slightly increased since June 2005 (June-92%, September-95.2%).(Ref. Page 23-24)

♦ Of the people who are aware of the Government and the LTTE’s plan to start talks in order to review the ceasefire agreement, a majority of Sri Lankans (80.4%) think that the Government and the LTTE should start talks at this present moment. From an ethnic perspective, a majority of all the ethnic groups believe that the Government and the LTTE should start talks at this present moment to review the CFA (Sinhala- 80.1%, Tamil- 89%, Muslim- 68.4%, Up-country Tamil- 80%).(Ref. Page 28)

♦ Of the people who are aware of the involvement of foreign monitors, a majority (64.4%) thinks it is essential to have a monitoring mission for the CFA to succeed. As the ethnic breakdown reveals, a majority of all the ethnic groups believe that it is essential to have a monitoring mission for the CFA to succeed (Sinhala-58.8%, Tamil- 95.2%, Muslim- 77.5%, Up-country Tamil- 93.5%). It is interesting to point out that the percentage of Tamil and Up-country Tamil communities who believe that it “Is essential” to have a monitoring mission is significantly higher compared to the Sinhala and Muslim communities. (Ref. Page 29)

♦ A majority of Sri Lankans (52.5%) disagree that the SLMM is impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement, which is a significant increase since June 2005 (44.4%). From an ethnic perspective, a majority of Sinhala (60.2%) and Muslim (47.2%) communities disagree with the statement while a majority of Tamil (69.7%) and Up-country Tamil (54.3%) communities agree. However when compared to the PCI June findings, it reveals some interesting developments. The percentage of Sinhala community who disagree (June-53%, September- 60.2%) has significantly gone up while the percentage of Tamil community who agrees (June- 72.5%, September-69.7%) has slightly gone down since June 2005. Similarly amongst the Muslim community the agreement (June-50.3%, September- 31.9%) has gone down while the disagreement (June-28.5%, September- 47.2%) has gone up since June 2005. Amongst the Up-country Tamil community the agreement has slightly gone down since June 2005 (June- 59.2%, September- 54.3%).(Ref. Page 30-31)

♦ A majority of Sri Lankans (50.2%) disagree that the SLMM is effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement, which is a significant increase since June 2005 (43.9%). From an ethnic perspective a majority of Sinhala (57%) and Muslim (45.1%) communities disagree that the SLMM is effective in its monitoring of the CFA. On the contrary a majority of Tamil community (61.8%) agree with the above statement. Interestingly a majority of Up-country Tamil (58.7%) community don’t know or not sure of the SLMM’s effectiveness in monitoring the CFA. When compared to the June PCI findings, the percentage of Sinhala community who disagree have gone up (June-51.9%, September- 57%) while the percentage of Tamil community who agree have gone down (June- Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005

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69.1%, September- 61.8%). The percentages of Up-country Tamil community who agree have significantly gone down since June 2005 (June-53.2%, September- 39.1%).(Ref. Page 32-33)

♦ A majority of Sri Lankans (69.3%) state that the Kadirgamar killing will have a negative impact on the peace process. As the ethnic perspective reveals a majority of Sinhala (78.3%) and Muslim (49%) communities believe that it will have a negative impact on the peace process. Interestingly, a majority of Tamil (44.9%) and Up-country Tamil (52%) communities don’t know or not sure of the impact of Kadirgamar killing on the peace process. (Ref. Page 39)

♦ Asked as to who is responsible for the number of other killings in the last few months, 36.9% say it is the LTTE while another 34.7% don’t know or not sure. On ethnic grounds, a majority of Sinhala community (44.9%) say that the LTTE is responsible for the killings. A majority of Tamil (71.7%), Muslim (63.9%) and Up-country Tamil (75.7%) communities say that they don’t know or not sure who is responsible for the killings. (Ref. Page 40)

♦ Of the people who are aware about the Joint Mechanism, 41.2% of Sri Lankans approve of it. While 32.3% disapprove, another 26.5% have no opinion on this regard. The ethnic breakdown reveals that a majority of Tamil (94.4%), Muslim (65.7%) and Up-country Tamil (100%) communities approve the Joint Mechanism. However the Sinhala community has a divided opinion on this regard (Approve- 32.6%, Disapprove- 36.7%, No Opinion- 30.6%). (Ref. Page 41)

For further information please contact:

Pradeep Peiris or Rangani Ranasinghe Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3,

Sri Lanka.

Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: [email protected] Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org

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Peace Confidence Index (PCI) May 2001 – September 2005

Important Issues Rating the degree of importance of five national issues.

National Breakdown

28.9 30 28.2 27.8 25.0 June '05 25 20.1 20.3 September '05 20 % 15.1 14.8 15 11.3 8.9 10

0 The Economy The peace Law and Order Conflicts betw een The Tsunami process in Sri different religious Recovery Lanka groups

Ethnic Breakdown

14.8 27.8 National 8.9 20.1 The Tsunami Recovery 28.9 17.8 31.9 The peace process in Sri Up-country Tamil 7.5 15.4 Lanka 27.2 Conflicts betw een different 16.9 27.5 religious groups Mus lim 13.6 14.1 Law and Order 27.6 17.4 30.9 The Economy Tamil 8.6 18.4 24.4 13.4 27.3 Sinhala 8.7 20.9 29.5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 %

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Solutions At the moment Sri Lanka is experiencing a 'no war, no peace' situation. Some people say that the continuation of this situation is better than pursuing a final solution. Others argue that continuation of this situation is bad and, therefore the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution, either through negotiations or war. Please tell me which of the arguments best describes your opinion.

National Breakdown

100 87.1 76.7 80 72.4

Mar c h '05 60 % June '05

40 September '05

20 12.6 8.6 8.8 9.4 5.6 6 6.2 3.9 0.3 0 Continuation of this Continuation of this Continuation of this No response/ Refuse situation is better than situation is bad and situation is bad and to answ er pursuing a final therefore, the therefore, the solution Government and the Government and the LTTE should go for a LTTE should go for a permanent solution permanent solution through negotiations through w ar

Ethnic Breakdown

3.9 6 National No response/ Refuse to answ er 87.1 0.3

1.3 Up-country 0 Tamil 98.7 Continuation of this situation is bad 0 and therefore, the Government and 1 the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through w ar Mus lim 1.9 96.1 1 Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and 2.1 the LTTE should go for a permanent 0.7 Tamil solution through negotiations 95.8 1.4 Continuation of this situation is better 4.4 than pursuing a final solution 7.1 Sinhala 84.9 3.5

0 20406080100 %

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At the moment Sri Lanka is experiencing a 'no war, no peace' situation. Some people say that the continuation of this situation is better than pursuing a final solution. Others argue that continuation of this situation is bad and, therefore the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution, either through negotiations or war. Please tell me which of the arguments best describes your opinion.

Change in Opinion of Muslim Community

96.1 100 85.8 80 Mar c h '05 60 June '05 % 46.8 40 30.4 September '05 20.4 20 8.7 1 2.4 1.9 3.1 2.3 1 0 Continuation of Continuation of Continuation of No response/ this situation is this situation is this situation is Refuse to answ er better than bad and therefore, bad and therefore, pursuing a final the Government the Government solution and the LTTE and the LTTE should go for a should go for a permanent solution permanent solution through through w ar negotiations

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Confidence I think the Government is committed to find peace through talks.

National Breakdown

80 69.8 70 63.7 58 60 56.7 53.9 53.4 50.2 49.7 50 43.8 44 43.5 42.7 Agree % 40 Disagree 31.4 30.3 27.1 29.7 28 30 23.8 23 20.9 22.5 20 15.1 11.9 9.1 10

0 May '01 January September May '03 February June '05 '02 '02 '04

Ethnic Breakdown

22.4 National 28 49.7

42.1 Up-country Tamil 19.7 Don't know /Not sure 38.2 Disagree 20.6 Muslim 30.4 Agree 49

26.5 Tamil 47.8 25.7

21 Sinhala 26.2 52.8

0 102030405060 %

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I think the Government is committed to find peace through talks.

Change in Opinion of Sinhala, Tamil and Up-country Tamil community

100% 90% 21 22.1 28.7 26.5 80% 38 42.1 Don't know /Not 70% sure 26.2 60% Disagree 27.7 42.8 50% 47.8 28.2 19.7 Agree 40% 30% 52.8 20% 43.6 35.1 33.9 38.2 25.7 10% 0% Sinhala Sinhala Tamil Tamil Up-country Up-country Tamil Tamil

June '05 September June '05 September June '05 September '05 '05 '05

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I think the Government is fully capable of finding peace through talks.

National Breakdown

70 60.7 60 June '05 48 50 September '05

40 % 32.7 30 19.4 18.6 20.7 20

0 Agree Disagree Don't know /Not sure

Ethnic Breakdown

20.7 National 18.6 60.7

42.1 Up-country Tamil 19.7 Don't know /Not sure 38.2 Disagree 19.2 Muslim 20.2 Agree 60.6

26.3 Tamil 17.5 56.2

19 Sinhala 18.5 62.4

0 10203040506070 %

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I think the Government is fully capable of finding peace through talks.

Change in Opinion in Sinhala, Muslim & Up-country Tamil Community

100% 13.7 90% 19 19.2 35.6 80% 16.4 42.6 42.1 18.5 70% 20.2

60% Don't know /Not sure 18.9 50% 19.7 Disagree 25 40% Agree 69.9 30% 62.4 60.6 45.6 20% 38.2 32.4 10%

0% June '05 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05

Sinhala Muslim Up-country Tamil

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I think the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks.

National Breakdown

70 63.5 62.6 60 50.6 50.3 50.1 50 44.9 46.2 42.7 40.2 39.5 38.2 38.9 Agree % 40 Disagree 28.3 29 30 25.7 25.7 22.2 21.4 21.1 18.2 17.2 20 15.8 12.9 11.7 10

0 May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Feb Mar c h June Sep '01 '01 '02 '02 '02 '03 '03 '03 '04 '05 '05 '05

Ethnic Breakdown

25.7 National 62.6 11.7

46.7 Up-country Tamil 5.3 Don't know /Not sure 48 Disagree 30.7 Muslim 43.6 Agree 25.7

25.4 Tamil 8 66.7

24.1 Sinhala 72.8 3.1

0 1020304050607080 %

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I think the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks.

Change in Opinion of All Ethnic Groups

100%

90% 20.2 24.1 25.4 30.6 30.7 80% 39.4 38.8 3.6 46.7 70% 8

Don't know /Not sure 60% 7.6 Disagree 31.4 50% 5.3 Agree 43.6

40% 72.8 76.2 55.4 66.7 30% 53.7 48 20% 38 25.7 10%

5.2 0% 3.1 June '05 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05

Sinhala Tamil Muslim Up-country Tamil

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I think the LTTE is fully capable of finding peace through talks.

National Breakdown

36.7 29 Agree

Dis agree

Don't know /Not sure

34.3

Ethnic Breakdown

29 National 34.3 36.7

51.4 Don't know /Not sure Up-country Tamil 5.4 43.2 Dis agree

26.3 Agree Mus lim 35.4 38.4

29.5 Tamil 15.8 54.7

27.9 Sinhala 37.7 34.4

0 102030405060 %

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Compared to the situation of the peace process a year ago, how close do you think the country is, at present, in approaching a final settlement to the ethnic conflict?

National Breakdown

45 39.6 40 33.6 Marc h '05 35 32.5 31.1 June '05 27.7 30 September '05 24.2 25 24.6 25 % 19.8 20 16.6 14.1 15 11.2 10

0 Very close Remains the same Not close at all Don't know /Not sure

Ethnic Breakdown

11.2 39.6 National 25 24.2 7.9 Up-country Tamil 26.3 25 Don't know /Not sure 40.8 Not close at all 13.6 35 Remains the same Muslim 16.5 35 Very close 12.1 48.6 Tamil 18.6 20.7 11.1 39.8 Sinhala 26.3 22.8

0 102030405060 %

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If peace is to be found through negotiations, according to your opinion, who should be involved in negotiations?

National & Ethnic Breakdown

12.8 1.1 Don't know 23.7 15.2 National 4.5 2.3 14.9 24.2 No peace talks 10.7 0.0 36.0 5.3 Up Country Tamils 1.3 Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil, Muslim 1.3 29.3 parties and a international third party 16.0 7.8 0.0 Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil and 46.1 41.2 Muslim parties only Muslim 2.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 Govt., Opposition, LTTE, Tamil parties 0.7 and a international third party 15.6 0.0 5.7 Govt., Opposition, LTTE and other Tamil 1.1 1.4 Tamil parties only 44.0 18.4 13.0 Govt.,LTTE and International third 1.3 23.1 party only 14.8 Sinhala 4.5 2.5 12.2 Govt. and LTTE only 27.0

0 1020304050 %

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Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) Some people say that the CFA has brought many benefits to ordinary citizens while others say that the CFA has not yielded any benefits to them. In your opinion have Sri Lankans benefited from the CFA or not ?

National Breakdown

80 68.8 70 65 60.7 60 Mar c h '05 50 % June '05 40 September '05 31.5

30 23.3 20.4 20 14.6 7.9 7.8 10

0 Yes, they have benefited No, they have not Don't know /Not sure benefited

Ethnic Breakdown

7.8 National 31.5 60.7 Up country 3.2 1.6 Don't know /Not sure Tamils 95.2

7.47 No, they have not Mus lim 24.7 67.9 benefited 7.2 Yes, they have Tamil 20 benefited 72.8 8.2 Sinhala 34.6 57.2

0 20406080100 %

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Some people say that the CFA has brought many benefits to ordinary citizens while others say that the CFA has not yielded any benefits to them. In your opinion have Sri Lankans benefited from the CFA or not ?

Change in Opinion of All Ethnic Groups

3 3.2 100% 5.6 6.6 8.6 8.2 7.2 7.47 5 1.6 90% 18 16.4 20 Don't know /Not 80% 25.6 24.7 34.6 sure 70% Disagree

60% Agree 50% 92 95.2 40% 76.4 72.8 77 65.8 67.9 30% 57.2 20%

10%

0% June '05 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05

Sinhala Tamil Muslim Up-country Tamil

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Please tell me three most important benefits of the CFA.

National Breakdown

80 69.7 70 57.6 60 47.2 50 % 40.4 40 34.9

20 16.9

10 4.1 5.6

0 Peaceful Ending of Ending of Freedom of Development Feeling of Avoid division Benefit to environment in killing destruction mov ement security of the country minor ity the country communities

Ethnic Breakdown

5.6 4.1 34.9 16.9 National 69.7 40.4 47.2 57.6 26.6 1.6 34.5 Benefit to minority communities 6.0 Up-country Tamil 81.4 49.6 Avoid division of the country 24.2 67.4 Feeling of security 0.8 1.8 35.9 Development 30.3 Mus lim 83.3 Freedom of movement 45.0 28.6 63.2 Ending of destruction 15.3 6.9 Ending of killing 39.6 30.6 Tamil 88.6 Peaceful environment in the country 42.2 13.2 43.8 3.0 4.1 34.3 15.0 Sinhala 65.1 39.0 55.1 58.1 020406080100 %

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How satisfied are you with the Government's commitment to the Ceasefire Agreement?

National Breakdown

12.8 14.2

11.1 Very satisfied Somew hat satisfied Not satisfied Not satisfied at all No opinion 21 40.9

Ethnic Breakdown

12.8 11.1 National 21 40.9 14.2 20.6 6.3 Up-country Tamil 15.9 47.6 No opinion 9.5 7.4 Not satisfied at all 6.2 Muslim 19.8 Not satisfied 54.3 12.3 Somew hat satisfied 14.4 Very satisfied 17.6 Tamil 27.2 38.4 2.4 12.6 11 Sinhala 20.7 40 15.8

0 102030405060 %

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How satisfied are you with the LTTE commitment to the Ceasefire Agreement?

National Breakdown

12.1 2.3 9.3 Very satisfied 24.5 Somew hat satisfied Not satisfied Not satisfied at all No opinion

51.9

Ethnic Breakdown

12.1 51.9 National 24.5 9.3 2.3 22.2 No opinion 1.6 Up-country Tamil 9.5 54 Not satisfied at all 12.7 17.1 Not satisfied 36.6 Muslim 24.4 19.5 Somew hat satisfied 2.4 Very satisfied 15.9 4 Tamil 8.7 52.4 19 10.9 60.3 Sinhala 26.9 1.9 0

0 10203040506070 %

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While some people argue that the Government should not hold talks with the LTTE at this moment, another set of people argue that they should hold talks with the LTTE to review the CFA. In your opinion do you think that the Government should hold talks at this present moment with the LTTE to review the CFA ?

National Breakdown

11.9 7.7 Yes No No Opinion

80.4

Ethnic Breakdown

11.9 National 7.7 80.4 20 Up-country Tamil 0 80 No Opinion

2.6 No Mus lim 28.9 68.4 Yes 5.5 Tamil 5.5 89 13.4 Sinhala 6.5 80.1

020406080100 %

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Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) What is your opinion of the need of a monitoring mission for the CFA to succeed?

National Breakdown

12.8 Is essential

22.8 Not essential

Don't know /Not sure

64.4

Ethnic Breakdown

12.8 National 22.8 64.4

Up-country 4.3 2.2 Tamil 93.5 Don't know /Not sure

4.2 Not essential Mus lim 18.3 77.5 Is essential

4 Tamil 0.8 95.2

14.7 Sinhala 26.5 58.8

0 20406080100 %

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I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement.

National Breakdown

60 52.5 50 44.4 43.6 Agree

40 36.4 Disagree 33.1 % 31.7 30.3 32.1 30.6 Don't know /Not 30 26.8 30.1 27.1 27.6 sure 23.6 24.8 25 24 22.8 19.6 17.8 23.5 20 15.7 18.1

14.6 10

0 May '02 September January May '03 September February June '05 September '02 '03 '03 '04 '05

Ethnic Breakdown

24 National 52.5 23.5

43.5 Up Country 2.2 Tamils 54.3 Don't know /Not sure

20.8 Disagree Mus lim 47.2 31.9 Agree

26.2 Tamil 4.1 69.7

23.2 Sinhala 60.2 16.6

020406080 %

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I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement.

Change in Opinion of All Ethnic Groups

100%

90% 20.5 21.2 20.8 23.2 26.2 32.8 33.1 80% 43.5 7 70% 4.1 Don't know /Not sure 28.5 7.8 60% Disagree 47.2 2.2 Agree 50% 60.2 40% 53 72.5 69.7 30% 59.2 50.3 54.3 20% 31.9 10% 14.3 16.6 0% June '05 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05

Sinhala Tamil Muslim Up-country Tamil

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I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement.

National Breakdown

50.2 50 Agree 43.9 40.7 Disagree 40 35.1 Don't know /Not 32 % sure 28.7 29.4 30 28 29.4 28.2 24.8 26.6 24.9 22.8 23.5 24.1 21.1 24.9 20.3 25.7 20 19.1

0 September January '03 May '03 September February '04 June '05 September '02 '03 '05

Ethnic Breakdown

24.9 National 50.2 24.9

58.7 Up Country Tamils 2.2 Don't know /Not sure 39.1 Disagree 22.5 Muslim 45.1 Agree 32.4

27.6 Tamil 10.6 61.8

23.3 Sinhala 57 19.8

0 10203040506070 %

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I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement.

Change in Opinion of Sinhala, Tamil & Up-country Tamil community

100%

21.3 23.3 27.6 34 80% 41.9 9.6 Don't know /Not 58.7 10.6 sure Disagree 60% 4.9 Agree 57 40% 51.9 2.2 69.1 61.8 53.2 20% 39.1

19.8 14.2 0% June '05 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05

Sinhala Tamil Up-country Tamil

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Foreign Involvement What is your opinion of the need for an international third party as a facilitator to the negotiations to solve the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka ?

National Breakdown

16.9 Is essential

Not Essential

Don't know /Not sure

24.3 58.9

Ethnic Breakdown

16.9 National 24.3 58.9

13.2 Up-country Tamils 5.3 Don't know /Not sure 81.6 Not Essential 13.6 Muslim 20.4 66 Is essential

10 Tamil 5.7 84.3

18 Sinhala 27.6 54.4

0 20 40 60 80 100 %

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Please state the most suitable country that should play the role of facilitator in the peace process.

National Breakdown

45 41.8 40 37.6

35 June '05 30 27.3 September '05 % 25 23.8 25 22.7 20

15 10.5 11.4 10

5 0 India United States of Norw ay Japan America

Ethnic Breakdown

37.6 National 23.8 27.3 11.4

34.6 India Up-country Tamil 3.8 57.7 3.8 United States of America

30.1 Norw ay Muslim 4.1 57.5 Japan 8.2 9.8 5.4 Tamil 80.4 4.5 42.5 29.6 Sinhala 14.7 13.2

0 20406080100 %

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The Norwegian government has been officially facilitating peace negotiations since November 2001. Please tell me your level of satisfaction with the Norwegian role as facilitator. Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied or not satisfied at all on the Norwegian role as facilitator ?

National Breakdown

7.4 22.5 Very satisfied 28.1 Somew hat satisfied

Not satisfied at all

Don't know /Not sure

Ethnic Breakdown

National 7.4 28.1 42 22.5

8.5 Very satisfied Up-country Tamil 40.7 50.8 0 Somew hat satisfied

Not satisfied at all Mus lim 13.6 49.4 37 0 Don't know /Not sure

3.32.4 Tamil 26 68.3

Sinhala 4 22.2 47.3 26.5

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

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Please state if you approve or disapprove of Norway continuing to facilitate the peace process.

National Breakdown

28.7 26 Approve

Disapprove

Don’t know / Not sure

45.3

Ethnic Breakdown

28.7 National 45.3 26

Up-country 21.3 4 Don’t know / Not sure Tamil 74.7

23.5 Disapprove Mus lim 33.3 43.1 Approve

10.9 Tamil 2.9 86.2

31.3 Sinhala 52.8 15.9

020406080100 %

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What is your opinion of the need for India's involvement in the Sri Lankan peace process ?

National Breakdown

23.6 Is essential

Not Essential

Don't know /Not sure 52.7

23.7

Ethnic Breakdown

23.6 National 23.7 52.7

8 Up-country Tamils 6.7 85.3 Don't know /Not sure

10.8 Not Essential Muslim 12.7 76.5 Is essential 10.2 Tamil 38.7 51.1

26.8 Sinhala 23.9 49.3

0 20406080100 %

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What kind of impact will Kadirgamar assassination have on the peace process ?

National Breakdown

2.1 22.6 Will have a positive impact

Will have a negative impact

Will have no impact

Don't know /Not sure 6

69.3

Ethnic Breakdown

22.6 6 National 69.3 2.1 52 17.3 Don't know /Not sure Up-country Tamils 29.3 1.3 Will have no impact

36.3 Will have a negative impact 11.8 Muslim 49 2.9 Will have a positive impact 44.9 Tamil 23.9 26.8 4.3 17.1 Sinhala 2.7 78.3 1.8

0 20406080100 %

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In addition to Kadirgamar killing, there were number of other killings in the last few months. In your opinion who do you think are responsible for these killings ?

National Breakdown

40 36.9 34.7 35 30 25 % 20 13.6 15

10 6.1 3.1 5 1.9 2.4 1.3 0 0 LTTE and LTTE and LTTE and LTTE, the LTTE only Paramilitary Security Karuna Don't know / the Security Karuna paramilitary Security groups Forces only faction only Not sure forces faction groups forces and Karuna faction

Ethnic Breakdown

34.7 0 1.3 2.4 National 36.9 Don't know / Not sure 6.1 1.9 13.6 3.1 Karuna faction only 75.7 1.4 4.1 16.2 Security Forces only Up-country Tamils 0 2.7 0 0 0 Paramilitary groups 63.9 0 2.1 8.2 LTTE only Muslim 8.2 1 5.2 8.2 3.1 LTTE, the Security forces 71.7 0 and Karuna faction 8.7 13 LTTE and paramilitary Tamil 0.7 2.2 groups 1.4 0.7 1.4 LTTE and Karuna faction 26.5 0 0.4 0.1 LTTE and the Security Sinhala 44.9 7 forces 1.8 15.9 3.4 0 1020304050607080 %

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Joint Mechanism Do you approve or disapprove of the Joint Mechanism ?

National Breakdown

26.5 41.2 Approve Disapprove

No Opinion

32.3

Ethnic Breakdown

26.5 National 32.3 41.2

0 Up-country Tamils 0 100 No Opinion

10 Disapprove Muslim 24.3 65.7 Approve

3.3 Tamil 2.2 94.4

30.6 Sinhala 36.7 32.6

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

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Do you think the Joint mechanism/PTOMS will be operational?

National Breakdown

35.7 Yes

64.3

Ethnic Breakdown

64.3 National 35.7

22.6 Up-country Tamils 77.4 No 52.5 Muslim Yes 47.5

22.9 Tamil 77.1

71 Sinhala 29

0 102030405060708090 %

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What will be the impact of it on the peace process ?

National Breakdown

11.8 Will have a positive impact 11 Will have a negative impact

Will have no impact

6.5 Don't know /Not sure

70.7

Ethnic Breakdown

11.8 11 National 6.5 70.7 0 Up-country Tamils 8.7 0 Don't know /Not sure 91.3 3.4 Will have no impact Muslim 13.8 6.9 Will have a negative impact 75.9 Will have a positive impact 4.9 6.6 Tamil 0 88.5 15.9 Sinhala 11.6 8.6 63.9

0 20406080100 %

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Annex

District sample (weighted) distribution in September 2005 Pag DISTRICT TOTAL Colombo 203 Gampaha 193 Kalutara 96 Kandy 117 Matale 42 Nuwara Eliya 66 Galle 100 Hambantota 51 Matara 75 Anuradhapura 73 Polonnaruwa 35 Kurunegala 137 Puttlam 67 Badulla 75 Monaragala 35 Ratnapura 98 Kegalle 77 Ampara 54 Batticoloa 30 Vavuniya 9 Jaffna 78 NATIONAL 1711

Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in September 2005

ETHNICITY TOTAL Sinhala 1389 Tamil 141 Muslim 104 Up-country Tamil 77 NATIONAL 1711

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Sampling Methodology

Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations in public confidence levels towards the peace process over time it is essential that the study be conducted repetitively with equal pauses during the study. Hence, from May 2001 to February 2004, PCI was conducted bi-monthly, however, from March 2005 onwards, SI decided to conduct the study quarterly to make the PCI more efficient.

The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of approximately 1800 respondents during each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to capture the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is undeniable that an individual’s opinion on the peace process is influenced by a number of factors, however the ethnic factor, which is the most important and influential, is the sole factor that has been accommodated in this model.

The total sample is distributed amongst 21 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, but in the Ampara, Batticoloa, Vavuniya and Jaffna districts the LTTE controlled areas were not covered due to logistical difficulties and methodological concerns. The sample size is assigned to each stratum is approximately equal to the population proportions. However, some districts are over sampled due to the ethnic heterogeneity but the over sampling biases are eliminated by weighting the sample.

A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a district only if the population proportion of that particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the primary sampling unit using the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri Lanka 1996’ published by the Department of Census and Statistics as the sample frame.

To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensuring a maximum dispersion of the sample within a DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a GND. Within a given GND the enumerator is advised to select a starting point randomly and proceed with interviews using the random walk (right hand rule) technique in order to assure the random selection of households.

In the case of urban areas the interviewer is instructed to skip a house while selecting the households, thus resulting in the interview-taking place at every alternative household. As the final sampling unit, the respondent is chosen from the household using the ‘KISH’ grid thus ensuring that each member of the household has an equal chance of being selected to the PCI sample.

The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. It is noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model does not support the regional level analysis at the same level of precision.

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