An Opinion Poll On Peace Peace Confidence Index (PCI) TOP-LINE RESULTS Social Indicator February 2004 © 2004 Social Indicator ● Centre for Policy Alternatives hile many studies have been conducted on various aspects of W this conflict, none have attempted to capture the changes in public perception over a period of time. The lack of such a study was identified as a significant void by Social Indicator (SI), the social research unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA). The Peace Confidence Index study (PCI) seeks to fill this lacuna. The study will be conducted bi- monthly to gauge the impact of local and international political developments on public attitudes towards the peace process. This report was prepared with funds provided by: The U.S. Agency for International Development under the Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI), Sri Lanka. Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results CONTENTS • INTRODUCTION 01 • KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS 02 • FINDINGS AT A GLANCE 06 • PEACE CONFIDENCE INDEX (PCI) 12 TOP-LINE RESULTS CONFIDENCE IN PEACE 12 SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT 15 CONFIDENCE 18 THE PEACE PROCESS 22 INTERNATIONAL THIRD PARTY FACILITATION 23 NORWEGIAN FACILITATION 24 INDIA’S INVOLVEMENT 26 • RECENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS 27 SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION 27 FEDERAL SOLUTION 30 SLFP – JVP ALLIANCE 35 UNETHICAL CONVERSIONS 37 ATTACKS ON CHURCHES 44 DISSOLUTION OF PARLIAMENT 48 • ANNEX Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004 Peace Confidence Index Page 1 Top-line Results INTRODUCTION OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of public confidence in the peace process using a set of standardised questions which remain unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of questions related to recent social, economic and political developments in order to gauge public opinion of the peace process, which by definition will change from one wave to another. Such information, collected over a period of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a useful barometer of the opinions of the Sri Lankan polity, and ensure that the collective opinions of the public are given due importance and incorporated into the policy debate. SCOPE & METHODOLOGY The study is carried out using a structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face interviews amongst a 2,125 respondent sample. The 17 administrative districts of the seven provinces, excluding the Northern and the Eastern provinces, and areas under Government control of the Amparai, Batticoloa, Trincomalee and Vavuniya were surveyed. Data is weighted to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of the districts in which the sample was surveyed. Sixteen waves of the PCI study were conducted in May, June, September and November 2001 and January, March, May, July, September, November 2002 and January, March, May, July, September and November 2003. The latest wave was conducted in February 2004. This publication presents only the top-line results of the February 2004 survey. The results of these seventeen waves offer us data for a comparative study on changing public opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of war and peace to the proscription of the LTTE. The results are subject to a 3% margin of error. Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004 Peace Confidence Index Page 2 Top-Line Results KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS DECEMBER 2003 – FEBRUARY 2004 • One person died and another injured when a hand grenade was thrown at Kandalkaduthu in Kinniya police area on Sunday night. President Chandrika Kumaratunga has directed Defence authorities and the IGP to take immediate steps to normalise the situation in the Trincomalee district. (01 December 2003)- (Daily Mirror on 02 December 2003) • The third round of talks between President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe went positively with a certain degree of consensus being reached, informed sources said. (04 December 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 05 December 2003) • One of Sri Lanka's best known, most outspoken and controversial monk, the Venerable Gangodawila Soma Thera, better known as Soma Hamuduruwo, died suddenly in Russia yesterday after a heart failure. He was 54. (12 December 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 13 December 2003) • In an unprecedented move an inquest on the death of the Venerable Gangodawila Soma Thera was conducted at the Ragama hospital yesterday by three JMOs with the assistance of two heart specialists and unconfirmed reports said they would be reporting to the Magistrate today that death was due to heart failure. (18 December 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 19 December 2003) • Talks aimed at resolving a power struggle between President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe have failed, raising fresh concerns for a fragile peace bid with the LTTE, political sources said today. (21 December 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 22 December 2003) • Amidst growing concern over religious tension, President Chandrika Kumaratunga today put the Police and the armed forces on full alert and ordered them to crack down on anyone trying to create trouble among religious groups. The President who met DIGs of the Western and Southern Provinces said that the country battered by decades of racial conflicts could not and must not allow religious trouble to erupt as preparations were finalised for the cremation of the Ven. Gangodavila Soma Thera at Independence Square tomorrow amidst continuing allegations and rumours, the President said. (22 December 2003)- (Daily Mirror on 23 December 2003) • A mob that ran berserk just after the funeral pyre of Ven. Gangodawila Soma Thera was set alight and sheer pandemonium reigned when police anti-riot squads responded by firing tear gas to break up the crowds who were demanding the release of two suspects whom the police had rescued from the mob. Reports said the two men were attacked by the mob for allegedly distributing scurrilous pamphlets at the Independence Square. (24 December 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 25 December 2003) • More than one hundred Buddhist monks of the Jathika Sangha Sammelanaya today staged a fast unto death opposite the Buddha Sasana Ministry, urging the government and President Chandrika Kumaratunga to bring in laws to curb unethical conversions. (29 December 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 30 December 2003) • Police said today they had stepped up security at churches after two Christian sites were attacked amid continuing inter-religious tension. DIG K. P. Pathirana said mobile patrols had been intensified in vulnerable areas following Sunday's attack on a Jehovah's Witnesses hall and another church in Colombo. (29 December 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 30 December 2003) • Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe today called on President Chandrika Kumaratunga to take over the task of handling the peace process by introducing suitable amendments to the Ceasefire Agreement of February 2001 and renegotiate the Accord with the LTTE. (07 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 08 January 2004) • Tamil political parties today raised concern over the Prime Minister's statement calling on the President to take over the entire Peace Process and the ceasefire agreement with the LTTE. (07 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 08 January 2004) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga admitted today for the first time that she had been sworn-in for the second time, one year after she took oaths in 1999. "It is up to me to take a decision whether I am to continue in the office of President till 2006 or not. But I may not want to stay that long in this bad political culture," President Kumaratunga said in an interview with ITN today. (13 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 14 January 2004-http://www.dailymirror.lk/2004/01/14/front/3.asp) • Despite the peace process being at a standstill due to the political stalemate, humanitarian assistance to the North - East will continue, government Peace Secretariat sources said today. (14 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 15 January 2004) • The LTTE has given a solemn pledge to the Norwegian facilitators that it will abide by the cease-fire agreement and maintain peace, irrespective of the continuing turmoil in Colombo. The assurance was given by the LTTE's chief negotiator, Anton Balasingham, when he met on Wednesday with a Norwegian delegation led by Oslo's Special Envoy Erik Solheim. (15 January 2004)-(www.tamilnet.com) Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004 Peace Confidence Index Page 3 Top-Line Results • The Roman Catholic Church of St. Michael's in Katuwana, Homagama came under a mob attack early today for the second time in three weeks. Police blamed religious extremists for the attack, one of several reported throughout the country in the recent past. (15 January 2004)-(Daily News on 16 January 2004) • Retired Major General Trond Furuhovde will be appointed as the new Head of Mission of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) replacing Tryggve Tellefsen, who is in Oslo after being accused of endangering national security by President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga. (16 January 2004)-(Daily News on 17 January 2004) • The main Opposition SLFP today came down hard on the business community, saying that a minority section of the business sector whom they termed as a group of "self-proclaimed high priests" have become spokesmen for the UNF government. SLFP Spokesman Mangala Samaraweera told a news conference that the Joint Business Forum at a recently held seminar had repeated the demands (originally) made by the UNF government.- -Jan 16-Daily Mirror Jan 17 • The SLFP and the JVP today reached a landmark agreement placing their joint signatures to a Memorandum of Understanding aimed at forming a broad national alliance and vowed it would defeat the UNF government and the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding was the first step towards it. (20 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 21 January 2004 & www.tamilnet.com on 21 January 2004) • Two men who were putting up flags and festoons to celebrate the signing of the MoU between SLFP and JVP were killed in a grenade attack on them in Senaikkudiyiruppu in the Puttalam district Monday, Police said.