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Holocene Climate History of British Columbia Using Pollen-Based Climate Reconstruction Techniques

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HOLOCENE CLIMATE HISTORY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA USING POLLEN-BASED CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION TECHNIQUES by Simon James Allan Elliott Goring B.Sc., University of Northern British Columbia, 2003 THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY In the Department of Biological Sciences Faculty of Sciences © Simon Goring 2012 SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY Spring 2012 All rights reserved. However, in accordance with the Copyright Act of Canada, this work may be reproduced, without authorization, under the conditions for Fair Dealing. Therefore, limited reproduction of this work for the purposes of private study, research, criticism, review and news reporting is likely to be in accordance with the law, particularly if cited appropriately. APPROVAL Name: Simon James Allan Elliott Goring Degree: Doctor of Philosophy (Biological Sciences) Title of Thesis: Holocene climate history of British Columbia using pollen-based climate reconstruction techniques Examining Committee: Chair: Julian Guttman Assistant Professor _______________________________________________ Rolf Mathewes Senior Supervisor Professor _______________________________________________ Marlow Pellatt Supervisor Adjunct Professor _______________________________________________ Elizabeth Elle Supervisor Associate Professor _______________________________________________ Arne Mooers Supervisor Professor _______________________________________________ Karen Kohfeld Public Examiner Assistant Professor _______________________________________________ Konrad Gajewski External Examiner Professor University of Ottawa Date Defended/Approved: August 16, 2011 __________________________________ ii Partial Copyright Licence iii ABSTRACT Using pollen data to reconstruct past climate requires testing to understand the strengths and weaknesses of methods, and to develop accurate interpretations. This thesis presents the development of a British Columbia (BC) modern pollen dataset (BCMPD) for Holocene paleoclimate reconstruction. The BCMPD used to test seven climate reconstruction techniques including the new Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling / Generalized Additive Model method. The BCMPD includes assemblages from lacustrine, bog and terrestrial depositional environments. Depositional site characteristics may affect the ability of pollen-based climate models to predict climate accurately. Results show that combining samples from multiple depositional environments can increase, decrease or have no effect on model error, independent of sample size. The effects vary among model types and across climate variables. Given the variable effects of depositional environments, researchers are recommended to test the effect of mixed depositional environments prior to model calibration when using large datasets. The accuracy of pollen datasets for climate reconstruction depends on turnover rates in source vegetation. Correlations to weather station records from the lower mainland of BC show that aerial pollen, pollen from a lacustrine sediment core and the BCMPD all show different pollen-climate relationships. These differences are likely the result of interplay between individual-level physiological responses to climate and iv changes in regional vegetation as a response to either succession or climatic change. Pollen may be a weak predictor of rapid climate change in forests dominated by long- lived species. Climate reconstruction in BC during the past 10,000 years indicates changes in temperature and precipitation that compare well to other proxy observations. These changes can be explained by interactions between changes in solar insolation in addition to dominant weather systems such as the Aleutian Low and Pacific High. Vegetation reconstructions using pollen-based climate models show that coastal and northern boreal vegetation zones declined in area while interior-type vegetation increased in area during the last 10,000 years. Keywords: British Columbia; paleoclimate; pollen; multidimensional scaling; depositional environment; Holocene; vegetation history v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Thanks to everyone who helped with this thesis. There is a very long list: Nicolle Gruzling, who put up with a lot over the past years and continues to put up with me, morning juice-making notwithstanding. Rolf Mathewes, who also put up with a lot, and flew me wherever I wanted to go. Marlow Pellatt, showed me how to core, both the right way and the wrong way. Elizabeth Elle and Arne Mooers were excellent committee members. Terri Lacourse was a great help in showing me the right way to write, Ian Walker helped me see the ecological light. Dan Gavin supplied a number of pollen records from Washington and Oregon states. Tom Webb III was an excellent and thorough reviewer. Three anonymous reviewers helped with the two published chapters. Tanja Schwander, Erin Barley, Ryan Vietch, Kelly & Clayton Wintemute, Peter Goring, Erica Pratt, and Sarah Goring all provided support and a sometimes bored ear. I would like to thank J.H. McAndrews, K. Gajewski, D. Francis, R. Pienitz, J. Racca, and E. Bredesen for their involvement in the second chapter. The fourth chapter would not have been possible without help from Ian Stakenvicius at Aerobiology Research, Environment Canada and Ionut Aron. Thanks to Alex Cannon and others for help with the fifth chapter. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Approval .......................................................................................................................... ii Partial Copyright Licence .................................................................................................. iii Abstract ........................................................................................................................... iv Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................... vi Table of Contents............................................................................................................. vii List of Figures ................................................................................................................... x List of Tables .................................................................................................................. xv 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 References ................................................................................................................ 7 2: A new methodology for reconstructing climate and vegetation from modern pollen assemblages: an example from British Columbia ................................................... 10 2.1 Abstract .................................................................................................................. 10 2.2 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 12 2.3 Materials and Methods ............................................................................................. 16 2.3.1 Pollen data ........................................................................................................... 16 2.3.2 Spatial analysis .................................................................................................... 18 2.3.3 Gap analysis......................................................................................................... 19 2.3.4 Climate reconstruction ......................................................................................... 20 2.4 Results ................................................................................................................... 22 2.4.1 Spatial distributions ............................................................................................. 22 2.4.2 Gap analysis......................................................................................................... 24 2.4.3 Pollen taxon selection .......................................................................................... 25 2.4.4 Pollen assemblage analysis................................................................................... 27 2.4.5 Climatic reconstruction ........................................................................................ 29 2.5 Discussion .............................................................................................................. 34 2.6 Reference List ......................................................................................................... 37 3: Are pollen-based climate models improved by combining surface samples from soil and lacustrine substrates? ........................................................................................ 42 3.1 Abstract .................................................................................................................. 42 3.2 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 43 3.3 Regional Setting ...................................................................................................... 47 3.4 Methods ................................................................................................................. 48 3.4.1 Pollen Samples and Climate Data ......................................................................... 48 3.4.2 Substrate Testing.................................................................................................
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