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Evolution of Post-Soviet Space: Past, Present, and Future

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Evolution of Post-Soviet Space: Past, Present, and Future Evolution Past, Present and Future Present Past, Space: of Post-Soviet Evolution of Post-Soviet Space: Past, Present, and Future EVOLUTION OF POST-SOVIET SPACE: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE RIAC . Moscow . 2017 UDC 323(47+57)(082) This publication has been produced by the Russian International Aairs Council. RIAC scientific and editorial support: I. Timofeev, Ph.D. in Political Science; T. Makmutov, Ph.D. in Political Science; I. Sorokina, M. Smekalova, R. Mayka; with participation of D. Khaspekova and N. Mukhin. Cover design – E. Chimiris Evolution of Post-Soviet Space: Past, Present and Future: An Anthology. — Moscow: NPMP RIAC, 2017. — 352 pages. ISBN 978-5-6040387-0-3 This publication includes 53 articles analysing the main development trends in the post- Soviet space – both the geopolitical region as a whole and the individual countries that make it up. The anthology consists of three sections: the first section is retrospective in nature and looks at the post-Soviet space 20 years after the collapse of the USSR; the second section analyses the current state of the former Soviet nations; and the third section provides a number of forecasts for the development of the countries in the region to 2021. This publication will be of interest to international aairs experts, civil servants, journalists and anyone interested in studying the future and analysing long-term global trends. The opinions presented in these articles reflect the personal views and research positions of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Russian International Aairs Council. Printed in Russia. ISBN 978-5-6040387-0-3 © Drafting, translation and design, NPMP RIAC, 2017 CONTENTS Preface . 6 POST-SOVIET SPACE: 20 YEARS AFTER COLLAPSE OF THE USSR . 7 Russia and CIS Countries: the Relations Getting Mature . 9 Dmitri Trenin Azerbaijan and Russia: Present and Future . 18 Stanislav Chernyavsky Armenia without the Union: a Twenty Year Long Journey . 23 Vadim Mukhanov Russia and Belarus – Doomed to Be Together . 27 Kirill Koktysh Post-Communist Bulgaria: Two Decades of Transformation . 31 Alexander Vasilyev What Happened with Georgia? . 37 Nikolay Silaev Russia and Kazakhstan:Twenty Years of Sovereign Cooperation . 42 Vyacheslav Dolgov Relations between the Independent Kirgizia and Russia: Present and Future . 47 Andrey Kazantsev Russia and Latvia: Twenty Years Apart. What Next? . 51 Vladislav Vorotnikov Twenty Years of Russo-Lithuanian Dialogue: Results and the Outlook for the Future . 55 Vladislav Vorotnikov Twenty Years Anniversary of Sovereign Moldova . 59 Lyudmila Fokina Tajikistan: the Results of “The Parade of Sovereignties” . 63 Leonid Blyakher Turkmen-Russian Relations in the Post-Soviet Era . 67 Аndrey Kazantsev Uzbekistan: Twenty Years of Independence . 71 Oleg Popadyuk A Motherland without a “Critical Mass” . 76 Andrey Okara Russian Policy in the Post-Soviet Area: Cycles and Labyrinths . 81 Irina Bolgova 3 Contents POST-SOVIET SPACE: 25 YEARS AFTER COLLAPSE OF THE USSR . 85 Post-Soviet Azerbaijan: a Twenty Five Year Journey . 87 Sergei Markedonov End of an Underwhelming Era: Why Armenia Needs Changes . 97 Mikael Zolyan Balkans Twenty Five Years after Communism: still the Powder Keg of Europe . 104 Alina Yablokova Twenty Five Years of Independent Belarus: Development Model, Risks and Opportunities . 114 Petr Petrovsky Post-Soviet Georgia: From Turbulence to Stability and Predictability . 121 Sergei Markedonov, Alexander Skakov Kazakhstan 2016: a Dynamic Society Facing the Challenges of the Modern World . 130 Artem Dankov Kyrgyzstan Twenty Five Years after the Collapse of the USSR: “Democracy Island” Facing the Challenges of Eective Governance . 134 Grigory Lukyanov Quo Vadis, Moldova? . 141 Sergei Lavrenov Twenty Five Years of Coping: Key Economic Trends in Tajikistan . 149 Aza Migranyan Post-Soviet Turkmenistan: a Little-Known Present and an Uncertain Future . 159 Andrey Kazantsev Uzbekistan at a Crossroads . 166 Oleg Popadyuk Ukraine: Twenty Five Years of Missed Opportunities . 176 Aleksander Gushchin The Baltic States. Twenty Five Years of the New Independence . 185 Nikolay Mezhevich Continuity and Volatility in Eastern Europe . 197 Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky Russia’s Political Agenda in the Post-Soviet Space . 207 Irina Bolgova Integration Competition in the Post-Soviet Space . 212 Vyacheslav Sutyrin The Armed Forces of Post-Soviet States . 221 Alexander Yermakov 4 Contents POST-SOVIET SPACE: 30 YEARS AFTER COLLAPSE OF THE USSR . 237 Azerbaijan in 2021: Reasserting Sovereignty . 239 Murad Gassanly Armenia after Twenty Five Years of Independence: Maintaining Stability in an Unpredictable Neighborhood . 247 Hovhannes Nikoghosyan Between Conflict and Stabilization. Southeast Europe in Five Years . 254 Alexander Pivovarenko Belarus 2021: Forecasts and Prospects . 265 Aleksey Dzermant Georgia: a Time of Anticipation . 270 Nikolay Silaev Kazakhstan 2021: Economic Opportunities for Future Development . 276 Elena Kuzmina Kyrgyzstan 2021: Living in Debt and According to the Code of the Neo-Feudal Elites . 286 Denis Berdakov Moldova in 2021 . 294 Pavel Kandel Tajikistan: What Kind of Future It Chooses… . 300 Larisa Khoperskaya Turkmenistan: Scenarios for an Uncertain Future . 309 Andrey Kazantsev Uzbekistan 2020: The Problem of Transformation at a Time of Uncertainty . 312 Artem Dankov Ukraine after Thirty Years: Manoeuvring between Geopolitical Centres . 318 Anton Naychuk The Baltics. Thirty Years after the Collapse of the USSR: The Point of no Return . 331 Sergei Rekeda Central and Eastern Europe Thirty Years after the Collapse of the USSR . 337 Viktor Katona Goodbye Post-Soviet Space? . 343 Sergei Markedonov About Authors . 350 About RIAC . 352 5 PREFACE A quarter of a century has passed since the formation of the new states on the territory of the USSR that collapsed in 1991. During this time, a whole generation of citizens of these states has grown up in the new geopolitical conditions. The states themselves were actively shaping the path of their independent formation, developing eective foreign policy, seeking allies, partners, and resources for development. In many respects the inertia of the USSR collapse has preserved over the past 25 years. The societies of post-Soviet states still adhere to the notion of the need to strengthen the positions of their countries in the world arena and their legal personality in international aairs. At the same time, relations with Russia have become more pragmatic. On the one hand, there is no escape from common geography and history; on the other – global competition has brought new incentives for cooperation. The growing processes of economic regionalization in the world have not circumvented the post-Soviet space. 2015 saw the launch of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) with Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia, and Kirghizia involved. At the same time, Russia still attaches great importance to CIS that remains one of priorities in the new Foreign Policy Concept approved by President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin on November 30, 2016. The security and collective security institutions in the post-Soviet space remain among the most painful issues. The questions of who needs to defend and who is the possible aggressor, arise not so much in connection with the economic capabilities of the countries, but because of the problems of their identity on the world arena and in regional relations, the di±culties they experience in developing their own development strategies and foreign policy priorities. Along with the uneven distribution of natural resources and the limited ability to replace them with intangible assets, the former union republics demonstrate dierent pace of development. This collection of articles, which is essentially an anthology, contains materials that reflect the evolution of post-Soviet countries from the moment they appeared on the political map of the world till the present, including the forecast of changes until 2021. The authors of the articles, written specially for the Russian International Aairs Council, include leading experts and scholars — specialists in the relevant countries and regions within the post-Soviet space. The interest is evoked not only by the materials addressed in the near future: what is to be expected in the states under consideration in the next five years. The assessment of the current situation and a retrospective look at the expert analysis from five years ago form the idea of the nature of relations between Russia and its neighbors, the opportunities and risks of strengthening ties with them. The editors and authors of the works hope that the articles published can form the basis for the subsequent discussion of the prospects for specific projects on cooperation between the states of the post-Soviet space. 6 POST-SOVIET SPACE: 20 YEARS AFTER COLLAPSE OF THE USSR Russia and CIS Countries: the Relations Getting Mature Twenty years down the road. How the world has changed since demise of the USSR? Dmitri Trenin The disintegration of the Soviet Union has crowned nearly a 500 year-long period of Russian history when imperial regime used to be the backbone and for the most of the time the form of Russian statehood. This overhaul had tremendous implications above all for the Russian foreign policy. Despite the hopes of some and fears of others the USSR disintegration unlike the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1917 was not followed by imperial restoration 20 years in a new make-up. Two decades later all former Soviet republics managed not only to
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