GARDNER ON THE WORLD BRAIN • THE CASE OF THE PETRIFIED GIRL • MULTIPLE PERSONALITY DISORDER Skeptical THE MAGAZINE FOR SCIENCE REASON Volume 23, No. 1 • January/Febr

SPECIAL REPORT ARMAGEDDON and the prophets of Doomsday Fears of the Apocalypse M Bible and the Prophets of Doomd Pseu in Russia testing Dowsing m i,m-

Alternative Medicine

and Unregulated Remedies

Published by the Committee R Scientific J^j Cation of Claims of the Paranormal THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLAIMS OF THE PARANORMAL AT THE CENTER FOR INQUIRY-INTERNATIONAl (ADJACENT TO THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BUFFALO) P AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION Paul Kurtz, Chairman; professor emeritus of philosophy. State University of New York at Buffalo Barry Karr, Executive Director Joe Nickell. Senior Research Fellow Lee Nisbet, Special Projects Director Matthew Nisbet Public Relations Director FELLOWS

James E. Alcock,* psychologist, York Univ., Thomas Gilovich, psychologist, Cornell Univ. Dorothy Nelkin, sociologist. New York Univ. Toronto Henry Gordon, magician, columnist, Joe Nickell,* senior research fellow, CSICOP Steve Allen, comedian, author, composer, Toronto Lee Nisbet,* philosopher, Medaille College pianist Stephen Jay Gould, Museum of Bill Nye, science educator and television Jerry Andrus, magician and inventor, Comparative Zoology, Harvard Univ. host, Nye Labs Albany, Oregon Susan Haack, Cooper Senior Scholar in Arts James E. Oberg, science writer Robert A. Baker, psychologist, Univ. of and Sciences, prof, of philosophy, Loren Pankratz, psychologist, Oregon Kentucky University of Miami Health Sciences Univ. Stephen Barrett, M.D., psychiatrist, author, C. E. M. Hansel, psychologist, Univ, of Wales John Paulos, mathematician. Temple Univ. consumer advocate, Allentown, Pa. Al Hibbs, scientist. Jet Propulsion Laboratory W. V. Quine, philosopher, Harvard Univ. Barry Beyerstein, * biopsychologist, Simon Douglas Hofstadter, professor of human Milton Rosenberg, psychologist, Univ. of Fraser Univ., Vancouver, B.C., Canada understanding and cognitive science, Chicago Irving Biederman, psychologist, Univ. of Indiana Univ. Wallace Sampson, M.D., clinical professor Southern California Gerald Holton, Mallinckrodt Professor of of medicine, Stanford Univ. Susan Blackmore, psychologist, Univ. of the Physics and professor of history of science. Evry Schatzman, president. French Physics Harvard Univ. West of England, Bristol Association Ray Hyman,* psychologist, Univ. of Oregon Henri Broch, physicist. Univ. of Nice, France Eugenie Scott,* physical anthropologist. Leon Jaroff, sciences editor emeritus, Time Jan Harold Brunvand, folklorist. professor executive director, National Center for Sergei Kapitza, editor, Russian edition, of English, Univ. of Utah Science Education Vern Bullough, professor of history, Scientific American Glenn T. Seaborg, university professor of Philip J. Klass,* aerospace writer, engineer California State Univ. at Northridge chemistry, Univ. of California, Berkeley; Edwin C. Krupp, astronomer, director, Mario Bunge, philosopher, McGill University Nobel Prize laureate Griffith Observatory John R. Cole, anthropologist, editor, Thomas A. Sebeok, anthropologist. Paul Kurtz,' chairman. CSICOP National Center for Science Education linguist. Indiana Univ. Lawrence Kusche, science writer Robert Sheaffer, science writer F. H. C. Crick, biophysicist, Salk Inst, for Leon Lederman, emeritus director, Biological Studies, La Jolla. Calif; Nobel Elie A. Shneour, biochemist; author, Fermilab; Nobel laureate in physics director. Biosystems Research Institute. Prize laureate Lin Zixin, former editor. Science and Richard Dawkins, zoologist. Oxford Univ. La Jolla, Calif. Technology Daily (China) Dick Smith, film producer, publisher. Terrey L. Sprague de Camp, author, engineer Elizabeth Loftus, professor of psychology, Cornelis de Jager, professor of astro­ Hills, N.S.W.. Australia Univ. of Washington Robert Steiner, magician, author. physics, Univ. of Utrecht, the Netherlands Paul MacCready, scientist/engineer, Bernard Dixon, science writer, London, U.K. El Cerrito, Calif. AeroVironment. Inc., Monrovia, Calif. Jill Cornell Tarter, astronomer, SETI Paul Edwards, philosopher, editor, John Maddox, editor emeritus of Nature Institute, Mountain View, CA Encyclopedia of Philosophy David Marks, psychologist. Middlesex Carol Tavris, psychologist and author, Los Kenneth Feder, professor of anthropology, Polytech, England Angeles, Calif. Central Connecticut State Univ. Walter C. McCrone, microscopist, McCrone Stephen Toulmin, professor of philosophy, Antony Flew, philosopher, Reading Univ., Research Institute Univ. of Southern California U.K. Mario Mendez-Acosta, journalist and Marilyn vos Savant Parade magazine con­ Andrew Fraknoi, astronomer, Foothill science writer, Mexico City, Mexico tributing editor and CBS News correspon­ College, Los Altos Hills. Calif. Marvin Minsky, professor of media arts and dent Kendrick Frazier,* science writer, editor, sciences, M.I.T. Steven Weinberg, professor of physics and SKEPTICAL INQUIRER David Morrison, space scientist. NASA astronomy, Univ. of Texas at Austin; Nobel Yves Galifret. vice-president. Affiliated Ames Research Center Prize laureate Organizations: France Richard A. Muller, professor of physics, Marvin Zelen, statistician, Harvard Univ. Martin Gardner,* author, critic Univ. of Calif., Berkeley Murray Gell-Mann, professor of physics, H. Narasimhaiah, physicist, president. * Member. CSICOP Executive Council Santa Fe Institute; Nobel Prize laureate Bangalore Science Forum, India (Affiliations given for identification only.)

Visit the CSICOP web site at http://www.csicop.org

The SKI.E'IH'AI. INIJUIKUC (ISSN 0194-0730) ii published bimonthly by the Committee for the Articles, reports, reviews, and letters published in the SKI'mi AI INQUIRIH represent the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal. 1310 Sweet Home Rd.. Amherst. NY views and work of individual authors. Their publication does not necessarily constitute an 1*4228. Printed in U.S.A. Second-class postage paid at Amherst. New York, and additional endorsement by CSICOP or us members unless to stated mailing offices. Subscription prices: one year (six issues), $35; two years. $58; three years. $81 \ Copyright ©1998 by the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the single issue, $4.95. Canadian and foreign orders: Payment in VS. funds drawn on a U.S. bank Paranormal. All rights reserved. The SKEFTICAl INQUIIU.R is available on 16mm microfilm. must accompany orders; please add US$10 per year for shipping Canadian and foreign cus- 35mm microfilm, and 105mm microfiche from University Microfilms International and is tomcrs are encouraged to use Visa or MasterCard. indexed in the Reader's Guide to Periodical Literature Inquiries from the media and the public about the work of the Committee should be made Subscriptions and changes of address should be addressed to SKIPTKAI INQUWIH. Box to Paul Kurrz. Chairman. CSICOP. Box 703. Amherst, NY 14226-0703. Tel.: 716-656-1425. 703. Amherst. NY 14226-0703. Or call toll-free I -800-634-1610 (outside U.S. call 716-636- FAX: 716-636-1733. 1425). Old address as well as new are necessary for change of subscriber's address, with six Manuscripts, letters, books for review, and editorial inquiries should be addressed to weeks advance nonce SKFPIKAI INQUIRER subscribers may not speak on behalf of CSICOP Kendrick Frazier. Editor. SKOTICAI INQUIKIK. 944 Deer Drive NE. Albuquerque NM or the SKI.rTK'Al INCJUIKEIL 87122. FAX 505-828-2080 For Guide for Authors, see page 69 in the May/June issue, or Postmaster Send changes of address to SKEPIKAI INQUIKIK. Box 703. Amherst, NY send a fax request to the Editor. 14226-0703 ON THE COVER Illustration by Brad Skeptical Inquirer Marshall January/February 1999 • VOL 23, NO. 1

SPECIAL REPORT

ARMAGEDDON AND THE PROPHETS OF DOOMSDAY

Fears of the Apocalypse COLUMNS

The Escape from Reason EDITOR'S NOTE Millennium hysteria has been with humankind for a long time, but when it is combhttd with doomsday prophecies, the result can be a dangerous flight NEWS AND COMMENT from reason. World's Longest Firewalk: Physicist Leads Hot Trek for Science in Pennsylvania / Illinois Files Complaint PAUL KURTZ Against Repressed Memory Doctors / Tapes Said to Show Sybil's Multiple Personalities Bogus / Host of The Bible and the Prophets of Doom Paranormal Radio Show Creates a Mystery of His Millenmalism, which suggests thai supernatural powers will soon estab­ Own / CSICOP Research Scholarship Set Up at Hertfordshire / APS Position on EMF Affirmed: 'No lish a perfect world, reflects a failure of nerve and the abandoning of Evidence of Health Effects' / 'Psychic' Sleuth Greta hope in human potential to resolve social and ecological problems. Alexander Dies 5 Despite the claims of divine revelations, it is possible to trace the social historical evolution of the beliefs that lie behind end-ofthe-age theology. NOTES OF A FRINGE-WATCHER GERALD A. LARUE The Internet: A World Brain? MARTIN GARDNER 1 2

New Russian Initiative to Defend INVESTIGATIVE FILES Science and Reason The Case of the Petrified Girl PAUL KURTZ JOE NICKELL 15

PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS Science and Pseudoscience in Russia Apocalypse Soon With the collapse of the Soviet Union and subsequent profound eco­ ROBERT SHEAFFER 18 nomic crisis, science in Russia is in a difficult state. The rampant social NEW BOOKS 55 disruption has been accompanied by a veritable flood of pseudoscience. The rise of irrationality and decline of reason may also be part of a ARTICLES OF NOTE 56 wider global trend. SCIENCE BEST SELLERS 57 SERGEI P. KAPITZA FORUM Alternative Medicine Science Needs to Combat Pseudoscience The Risks of Untested and Unregulated Remedies A Statement by 32 Russian Scientists MARCIA ANGELL. M.D. AND JEROME P. KASSRER. M.D.._.58 and Philosophers LETTERS TO THE EDITOR _...61

Fears of the Apocalypse ARTICLES The Escape from Reason, p 20 Testing Dowsing I' -ili i.'.iillll AfllTinL The Failure of the Munich Experiments Ll«IIMTiO\ dc mum physicists concluded from their massive experimental study that water dowsers unquestionably have a remarkable, mysterious skill. Reincarnation Those results, however, provide the most convincing disproof imaginable A Critical Exameiation. p 51 m warn that dowsers can do what they claim J. T. ENRIGHT BOOK REVIEWS

A Fallibilist Among the Cynics Rctiwumjtion: A Critical Examination Proponents of the Higher Ihsmisstvcncss contend that the concepts of by Paul Edwards truth, rationality, evidence, and fact are nothing but ideological hum­ BARRY L BEYERSTEIN bug Yet there's no need to give up on the objectivity of knowledge, truth, The World's Most Incredible Stories: The Best of evidence, en., provided you're fallibilist enough. What's required is a realistic understanding of how difficult and demanding successful Fortean Times inquiry can be. Edited by Adam Sisman SUSAN HAACK JOE NICKELL Skeptical Inquirer EDITOR'S NOTE THI MAGAflNI (OH ICIINCf AND MASON EDITOR Kendrick Frazier EDITORIAL BOARD James E. Alcock Armageddon and the Prophets of Doomsday Barry Beyerstein Thomas Casten Martin Gardner he end of the millennium, by the way most people will define it, is only a year Ray Hyman Taway. For the great majority of people, I think (hope?) the transition to the year Lawrence Jones 2000 will be a time for celebration, contemplation, and anticipation of the future. For Philip J. Klass Paul Kurtz others it is a harbinger of dread. I myself had expected more outbreaks by now of what Joe Nickell we might call "millennial madness," of the kind we saw with the Heaven's Gate comet- Lee Nisbet slimulated cuh suicides. Perhaps we will be spared the worst. Nevertheless there is still Amardeo Sarma Bela Scheiber much time for contagions of human hysteria and superstition to express themselves. Eugenie Scott There have always been those who believe, regardless of the time in history, that CONSULTING EDITORS Robert A. Baker Doomsday is near. Susan J. Blackmore In this issue we open with Paul Kurtz's "Fears of the Apocalypse: The Escape from John R. Cole Reason," the opening talk at the opening session ("Millennial Prophecies") of the Kenneth L. Feder C. E. M. Hansel CSICOP sponsored Second World Skeptics Congress in Heidelberg, Germany, July E. C. Krupp 23-26, 1998. The Congress's overall theme was "Armageddon and the Prophets of Scott 0. Lilienfeld David F. Marks Doomsday." The founding chairman of CSICOP, Kurtz applies his broad outlook as a James E. Oberg philosopher to the question of how we look to the future, and distinguishes three kinds Robert Sheaffer of forecasts of Doomsday prophecies: secular predictions (those related to the economy, David E. Thomas Richard Wiseman the environment, resources, population, war), religious-based predictions, and New Age MANAGING EDITOR cult predictions. It's a useful set of distinctions as we head toward the millennium-turn­ Benjamin Radford ing moment. As he emphasizes, those committed to skeptical inquiry have an obliga­ ART DIRECTOR Chris Kolas tion to carefully examine all claims about our collective future and submit them to PRODUCTION empirical criticism. Kristen Kowalski We follow that with another conference paper, Gerald Larue's "The Bible and the Paul Loynes CARTOONIST Prophets of Doom," which traces the evolution of end-of-age and apocalyptic notions Rob Pudim in religious scripture, including how apocalyptic thought developed and how modern WEB PAGE DESIGNER proponents inteprct it. Larue is emeritus professor of biblical history and archaeology Patrick Fitzgerald at the University of Southern California. PUBLISHER'S REPRESENTATIVE Barry Karr CORPORATE COUNSEL Brenton N. VerPloeg One of Russia's prominent scientific statesmen, Sergei P. Kapirza, presents a sober­ ASSISTANT BUSINESS MANAGER ing assessment of the state of science and of pseudoscience in post-Cold War Russia. Sandra Lesniak The article is based on his talk at the Heidelberg congress. The article is followed by the FISCAL OFFICER Diana Picciano text of a statement by thirty-two prominent Russian scientists and philosophers on the CHIEF DEVELOPMENT OFFICER need to combat pseudoscience. James Kimberly ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR OF DEVELOPMENT Anthony C. Battaglia CHIEF DATA OFFICER Every time we've published a critical mention of dowsing in the past few years, I Richard Seymour have heard from people who cite recent experiments funded by the German government FULFILLMENT MANAGER and conducted by a group of German university scientists (Wagner, Betz, Konig, and Michael Cione STAFF others). These experiments were said to have found strong empirical support for dows­ Jodi Chapman ing. Is that true? J.T. (Jim) Enright, a professor of behavioral physiology at the Scripps Allison Cossitt Kevin Dean Institution of Oceanography, has devoted extensive investigation to that question. The Linda Heller German experiments, although conducted by proponents, were generally well designed Matthew Nisbet and represent the most extensive tests ever conducted of the hypothesis that dowsers can Paul Paulin Alfreda Pidgeon detect hidden water. But Enright comes to a surprising conclusion: When all the data Etienne Rios sets, in contrast to only those emphasized by the authors, are analyzed and plotted, the Ranjit Sandhu Amy Schneider experiments not only fail to present convincing evidence of dowsing, they "provide the Sharon Sikora most convincing r/;s/>r

4 January/Februa.y 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT

World's Longest Firewalk: Physicist Leads Hot Trek for Science in Pennsylvania

bed crossed by bare feet was a 120-foot path braved by Jim Jarvis, Dan McHale, and Sara Raintree on October 10, 1987, in Redmond, Washington. Willey's goal was to walk at least 150 feet before leav­ ing the coals, but the actual length of the constructed lane was 165 feet. The fire bed began as about eight cords of wood stacked over a yard high. This pyre was lit around 7:30 P.M., producing a spectacu­ lar wall of flame, uncom­ fortably hot even from thirty feel away. Several hundred specta­ David G. Willey's 165-foot fire bed at the University of Pittsburgh at tors had gathered, and a Johnstown. number of television cam­ era crews circled the site. "It's not mind over matter," he INQUIRER, Fall Interviewers from the explained into the BBC television cam­ 1985). that fire- BBC, the Discovery era, "It's mind in matter." This gentle­ walking can be Channel, and ABC's 20/20 man, along with fourteen others, had understood in were all on hand. A fire- just set the world record for the longest terms of elemen­ engine and ambulance walk across hot coals. Interviewers asked tary thermody­ were parked nearby. The the firewalkers to explain how they namics. While the coal bed may reach onlookers waited impatiently for the fire- could trod upon burning embers with­ extremely high temperatures, it still walking to begin. Indeed, Richard Busch, out injury, and some replied with takes time for heat to (low from the a skeptic and experienced firewalker who descriptions of the needed mental and coais to the flesh, and ditTerent materiais had come to observe the event, worried spiritual discipline. Other participants, conduct heat at different rates. Indeed, aloud whether pressure from the media however, provided a different account of substances like hardwood, charcoal, ash, might drive the walkers onto the coals their success—one in which mind didn't and human skin are good thermal insu­ too soon. matter at all. lators, allowing heat to pass through Around 9 P.M., Willey finally Indeed, that was the position of the them only slowly. Since, during a brisk addressed the crowd and began an initial organizer of the event, David G. Willey. firewalk, each foot is in contact with the demonstration using a five-foot-long Willey is an instructor of physics at the coals for only a short time, little heat is fire bed that had been ignited much ear­ University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown transferred and little damage is done. lier. After the coals were raked to flatten and a veteran firewalker. His explana­ As an analogy, consider reaching into the surface, Willey crossed the short tion for how walkers like himself avoid a hot oven to touch the surface of a cake. path to the cheers of the crowd. A local painful burns relies not on psychology Everything in the oven is at the same weather reporter also braved the fire but on basic physics: temperature, but neither the air in the bed, preceded by Pennsylvania Senator oven nor the cake cause burns, if touched John Wozniak. Even ABC News corre­ "A firewalk of short length is some­ thing any physically fit person could only briefly. Touching a metal pan, how­ spondent John Stossel joined in, making do. Ii does not need a particular state ever, will lead to injury, since most metals a quick trip down the hot path. (Stossel's of mind. Rather, it is the short time of are excellent conductors of heat. one-hour special, "The Power of Belief," contact and the low thermal capacity In order to investigate this theory, and telecast on ABC October 6, 1998, and conductivity of the coals that is in hopes of educating the public. Willey prominently featured the Willey fire­ important." staged the World's Longest Firewalk walk demonstration.) Willey supports a version of the even! on July 2, 1998, on his home cam­ After more than three hours of burn­ hypothesis, posited by Bernard Leikind pus in Johnstown. Pennsylvania. Prior to ing, the wall of flame on the 165-foot and William McCarthy (SKEPTICAL that evening, the longest continuous fire fire bed was finally beaten down to

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/Feb'uary 1999 S NEWS AND COMMENT

surprise, he immediately turned around came forward to waive that confidential­ on the grass, and returned to his starting ity. The information leading to this point via another pass over the coals. complaint was provided by Patricia By 11:15 P.M. the fire bed had cooled Burgus and her family after her lawsuit quite a bit, but Willey made one last against Braun and others was settled out walk. While chatting with the BBC, he of court for $10.6 million in October. walked the complete length three times Burgus started seeing Braun due to without stepping off of the coals. All of depression. Within weeks, she was the firewalkers covered the full 165 feet, caught up in the strange world of and no major injuries were reported. By repressed memories, MPD, and satanic the end of the evening, all of the partic­ cult claims, including the belief that, ipants seemed exhilarated but according to the complaint, "she sud­ exhausted. The crowd dispersed, having denly possessed 300 personalities and learned, it was hoped, a simple lesson in remembered sexually abusing her chil­ physics. In that way, mind may have dren, eating meatloaf made of human mattered, after all. flesh, and serving as the high priestess of a satanic cult covering nine midwestern —David Noelle states." Even her children were caught up when Braun had them admitted to

Michael McDermott walks a 165-foot fire bed. David Noelle is a postdoctoral research the hospital's psychiatric center at the associate at the Center for the Neural Basis ages of four and five. of Cognition, a joint project of Carnegie The complaint details scores of glowing coals, with a thin strip of wood Mellon University and the University of charges against Braun. Among them are left theatrically flaming between the Pittsburgh. allegations that he confined Patricia walking lane and the audience. Burgus to a mental institution for Thermocouple pyrometers were placed twenty-seven months, and her sons for deep within the coals. Mike Allison, an Illinois Files Complaint three years, without any reasonable assistant to Willey, prepared to follow medical justification. Another charges the walkers down the path with an Against Repressed that Braun's therapy caused Burgus and infrared thermometer, sampling the Memory Doctors her sons to "believe that they had partic­ temperature near each participant's feet ipated in episodes of abuse at the hands five times per second. The walkers qui­ The Illinois Department of Professional of [Burgus], other family members, and etly gathered at the starting line. Regulation filed a twenty-thrcc-page, a supposed transgenerational, organized, Then, without warning, David Grout nine-count complaint in August 1998 satanic cult, including repeated episodes of Seattle implored the crowd to partici­ against Dr. Bennett Braun, a leader in of sexual, physical, and emotional abuse, pate in the event by repeatedly chanting the repressed memory movement. human sacrifice, and human torture." the word "puma" as loud as possible. As Braun is one of the most well-known The complaint also details the nine the audience shouted rhythmically. psychiatrists to believe in repressed counts filed against Braun, including Grout sprang to the starting line, puffed memories, multiple personality disorder "Gross Negligence," "Dishonorable, several deep breaths, and launched him­ (MPD), and huge conspiracies of Unethical, and Unprofessional Conduct," self at the long path. Moving quickly, he satanic cults. Indeed, he has taught "Making a False or Misleading Statement paced the entire length of the fire bed. other therapists how to obtain and deal Regarding the Skill or Efficacy or Value The crowd cheered. with "repressed memories." The com­ of the Medicine, Treatment, or Remedy Willey walked next, and he, too, plaint has a direct bearing on how those Prescribed By Him at His Discretion in completed the sixty to seventy steps to beliefs affected his patients. the Treatment of Any Disease or Other the finish line. Kjetil Kjernsmo, a young While Braun has been the target of at Condition of the Body or Mind," physicist from Norway who studies fire- least five lawsuits (two settled, three in "Prescribing, Selling. Administering, walking, completed the distance after process, according to the False Memory Distributing, or Giving Any Drug Willey. Soon, the "mind in matter" fel­ Syndrome Foundation and Chicago Classified as a Controlled Substance or low, wired with a BBC microphone, Daily Law Bulletin), this is the first reg­ Narcotic for Other Than Medically began his trek down the lane. Talking to ulatory challenge to his claims. Mental Accepted Purposes," and "A Pattern of the camera, almost at a run, he covered health information is confidential, so Practice or Other Behavior Which the full distance. Then, to everyone's charges could not be filed until a patient Demonstrates Incapacity or Incompc-

6 January/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT

tencc to Practice Under This Act." ecution is not to go after multiple-per­ ory therapy. Glasgow would not name Some of the charges in the "Gross sonality disorder or repressed memory." anybody, but said there are ongoing Negligence—P.B." section (P.B. is However, several counts of the com­ investigations. He added that the com­ Patricia Burgus), allegation 46, are: plaint specifically say that Braun: plaint against Braun may be amended to include a large amount of new informa­ • Failed to adequately inform P.B. • Established an unorthodox treat­ tion he has received from other former ment regimen in assigning to P.B. and her husband of the risk that the patients after the news story broke. various "personalities"; diagnosis of multiple petsonality • Improperly implemented the afore­ disorder was controversial and that said treatment regimen, encourag­ the diagnosis was not widely —David Bloomberg ing and assisting P.B. in developing accepted in the mental health com­ David Bloomberg is the chairman of the "personalities" which the munity; Respondent represented were • Failed to inform P.B. and her hus­ Rational Examination Association of "alter" personalities within P.B., band that there was further contro­ Lincoln Land (REALL). when no such personalities existed; versy in the menial health commu­ • Improperly implemented the afore­ nity as to whether or not multiple said treatment regimen using sug­ personality disorder was being gestive and coercive techniques to overdiagnosed and often found in Tapes Said to Show encourage and assist P.B. to people who did not in fact have- Sybil's Multiple "remember" episodes of abuse; that disorder • Advised P.B. and her husband that • Failed to inform P.B. and her hus­ Personalities Bogus "repressed memories" being uncov­ band of the risk thar "multiple per­ ered during the course of her treat­ sonality disorder" can be caused by A best-selling 1973 book by Flora ment and her children's treatment improper therapy; represented real memories of actual • Failed to inform RB. and her hus­ Schreiber told the story of a young historical events; band thai the theory of repression woman named Sybil who claimed to • Advised P.B. and her husband that lacked scientific validity and was have sixteen distinct personalities. That not generally accepted in the scien­ organized, world-wide transgencra- book later became a film and did much tific community. tional satanic cults which engaged to make the public aware of the afflic­ in mass murder, torture, satanic rit­ ual abuse, human sacrifices and Glasgow restated, in a telephone inter­ tion known until recently as multiple similar activities did in fact exist view, that his office is not necessarily say­ personality disorder (the new term is and that their existence and activi­ ing all repressed memory therapy is faulty, "dissociative identity disorder"). ties were well-known; but in this case is alleging that Braun According to psychologist Robert • Repeatedly advised and convinced failed to take the proper steps to assure he Rieber of John Jay College in New York, P.B. and her husband, when either or both expressed doubt as to the was treating the patients properly. long-lost audio tapes suggest that the existence of satanic ritual abuse or The preliminary hearing before an personalities were in fact created by her the validity of the memories of administrative judge, originally sched­ psychiatrist during therapy through such abuse, that they were the only uled for September 28 and then post­ inadvertent suggestions. Dr. Cornelia people questioning such concepts and beliefs; poned, was only the first step in the Wilbur, Sybil's psychiatrist, died in process, which can eventually lead to 1992. The tapes, which lay in Rieber's • Advised P.B. that she had sexually abused her minor children; punishment ranging up to revocation of desk since 1972, also show Schreiber • Advised P.B. and her husband that his license to practice medicine in improperly dismissing a letter from PB. had caused their minor children Illinois. Sybil to Dr. Wilbur in which she denies to participate in various satanic rit­ Braun's attorneys filed three motions having multiple personalities. ual activities including human and animal sacrifice, cannibalism, and seeking to have the case thrown out. The Rieber's conclusion is supported by various acts of human torture; judge ruled against ail three. Dr. Herbert Spiegel, a New York psychi­ • Failed to adequately inform P.B. The department has also filed atrist who treated Sybil when Dr. Wilbur and her husband of the risk that the charges against Braun's colleague. Dr. was unavailable. Spiegel concludes that techniques used in treatment were Elva Poznanski. Poznanski was chief of Sybil's personalities were iatrogenic, that capable of causing false memories of events which never occurred by child psychiatry at Rush-Presbytcrian- is, they arose from therapy. Dr. Wilbur's which nevertheless seem real to the St. Luke's Medical Center when the two therapy included giving names to Sybil's patient; Burgus children were institutionalized various emotional states. The problem there. The nineteen-page, eight-count occurred when Dr. Wilbur came to Thomas Glasgow, the chief of med­ complaint against her contains charges believe that the different names really ical prosecutions who developed the similar to those filed against Braun. were distinct personalities. complaint, said, "The purpose of this More complaints may be filed against Tapes of conversations between Sybil's complaint and the purpose of this pros­ other doctors who used recovered mem­ psychiatrist and Schreiber indicate that

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER lanuary/Ftb'jar, 1999 7 NEWS AND COMMENT

they were "not totally unaware" that the intense media interest virtually no one since then about the "terrible event." story they told in the book was wrong. seemed to know. Bell's private home telephone was dis­ (For more on MPD, see August Piper, Bell's "Coast To Coast" program, in connected and his e-mail account was Jr.'s article "Multiple Personality which he invites listeners to join in wild not accepting new mail. Disorder: Witchcraft Survives in the discussions of the paranormal, is Not surprisingly, in Internet news­ Twentieth Century," May/June 1998 SI.) reported to have a nightly audience of groups and chatrooms speculation some 15 million (though some report as ranged from bizarre conspiracy theories —Benjamin Radford little as 6 million) on more than 400 sta­ involving alien abductions and govern­ tions nationwide and is a consistent rat­ ment suppression to cynical charges that Ben Radford is Managing Editor of ings winner. But even Premiere Radio his "retirement" was merely a publicity SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. Network, the syndication arm of the stunt or was designed as a bargaining company thai distributes his show, chip for salary negotiations. But a pecu­ Host of Paranormal appeared to have been unaware of Bell's liar message posted on the Internet the intentions. Spokeswoman Mir day after his announcement seemed to Radio Show Creates a Hendrickson said that "Best Of" shows provide the answers. Appearing to be Mystery of His Own would be played for the remainder of from Art Bell, it explained that a time the week, "until we find out what's traveler who had accurately predicted In a turn of events that left just about going on." Subsequent press releases various misfortunes was responsible for everyone scratching their heads, the from Premiere announced that broad­ his leaving the air. Although the post was immensely popular late-night talk show caster Hilly Rose, himself a fan of the quickly labeled a hoax (the message's host Art Bell unexpectedly announced in paranormal, would start the following routing information did not match Bell's the early morning hours of his October week as guest host. true address) at least two press reports 13 broadcast that he was quitting the In the hours following Bell's sudden cited the message as legitimate. radio business forever. Referring to his announcement, concerned officers from But perhaps the height of silliness reason only as a "threatening, terrible the local police department in Pahrump. came from Ed Dames, a frequent guest event" that occurred to his family roughly Nevada, arrived at his desert trailer but of Bell's show and president of a com­ a year ago, Bell went into seclusion and found him in no danger. Early news pany called PSI-TECH, who said that was unavailable for comment. And then, accounts quoted Sheriff Lt. Bill Becht remote viewing sessions, which allowed only ten days later. Bell told baffled lis­ reporting that Bell was fine and that him CO "go into Art Bell's mind directly," teners that he'd be back within a week. "any threats were not criminal in pointed to a "transcendent experience" So what happened? Despite the nature." But little else has been revealed that occurred to Bell in Egypt as the real

CSICOP Research Scholarship Set Up at Hertfordshire

The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of University of Hertfordshire (UK). Dr. Wiseman currently the Paranormal and The University of Hertfordshire have heads a research unit specializing in the scientific exami­ announced creation of the CSICOP Research Scholarship. nation of alleged paranormal phenomena and related This three-year scholarship will fund a Ph.D. student to topics. The unit has a well established record of research carry out research related to psychology and skepticism. and a postgraduate training program. The university, Possible topics could, for example, include: located just north of London, is well equipped to support • The critical evaluation of evidence for the paranormal research students and has an excellent record of Ph.D. completion. • The psychology of deception, lying and fraud Applicants should have a good first degree in psychol­ • Eyewitness testimony and the paranormal ogy or relevant discipline, and be able to demonstrate an • The psychology of belief in the paranormal interest in skepticism. • The media and the paranormal Further details can be obtained from Dr. Richard Wiseman University of Hertfordshire • Communicating science to the public College Lane, Hatfield, Herts.. AL10 9AB This research will be conducted under the supervision Direct tel: 01707 284628 • Direct fax: 01707 285073 of Richard Wiseman at the Psychology Department of the E-mail: psyqrw©herts.ac.uk

8 lanua'y/Februaty 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT

cause for his departure. (Dames, by the sages posted to his Web site's discussion Physicist Robert Park writes the American way, offers a Technical Remote Viewing board one of which lamented, "This has Physical Society's "What's New" weekly Home Training Course if anyone's inter­ been the worst ten days of my life" it electronic newsletter from Washington. ested.) appears that his fans couldn't be happier. Hoping to clear up the rumors, Nye Any updates to this story will appear in County Sheriff Wade Lieseke, who the following issue of the SKEPTICAL 'Psychic' Sleuth Greta described himself as a personal friend of INQUIRER. AS of this writing transcripts Bell, told a number of reporters that Bell's of Bell's announcements and links to Alexander Dies reasons were genuine and "highly per­ press reports are available at www.art- sonal." Answering a series of questions bell.com/artquits.html. "Psychic detective" Greta Alexander died from Los Angeles radio talk-show host in mid-July 1998 at the age of sixty-six. — Tom Genoni Jonathon Brandmeier, Lieseke said Bell's The Associated Press referred to her decision was not related to a government Tom Genoni is the CSICOP West Coast "uncanny knack for helping police find conspiracy, did not have to do with his or Bureau Chief. missing people and bodies," and quoted his family's health, and that he had not a friend, a coroner, who claimed she been threatened with any harm. These once gave authorities "21 points" of statements were echoed by Keith APS Position on EMF accurate data about a missing girl. Rowland, the webmaster of Art Bell's Actually, that case gets better each Internet site, who added, "No one has Affirmed: 'No Evidence time it is retold. Ward Lucas's investiga­ recently threatened or intimidated him." of Health Effects' tion of the facts appeared in my book, After Bell's initial announcement he Psychic Sleuths (Prometheus 1994). made two additional pre-recorded state­ The following item is taken from Lucas obtained a list of Alexander's ments. At the beginning of the "Coast American Physical Society's "What's New" "clues" in the case—twenty-four in all— To Coast" program on the following electronic newsletter of Oct. 2, 1998: and found that only one involved a spe­ Monday, Bell again stated that he was cific name and that it was in error. No wonder the public is confused about not able to fully explain the situation. Other predictions that might have been science. A panel convened by the "To disclose details of what did occur, expected to help lead to the body "were National Institute of Environmental would have a rather immediate negative so vague" Lucas concluded, "they could Health Sciences claims to have detected affect on my family. . . ." he said. Bell reasonably apply to virtually any por­ a pulse in the decaying corpse of the did reveal that some news organizations tion" of the 20-mile stretch of highway nineteen-year controversy over health had "uncovered what went on" but that the confessed killer had indicated. effects of power line fields (WN 3 July they had not yet proceeded with the Only after the police discovered the 1998), voting to make EMF (electro­ story. (One news report stated that out body—by searching a previously chosen magnetic fields) a "possible" carcinogen. of respect to the family the details were location—did they find Alexander's Several panel members are involved in not being divulged.) clues accurate. Several statements that projects whose continuation depends on Then on Friday, a little over a week were in error were simply ignored, while public concern about EMF. Their find­ after Bell stated categorically, "I'm going others were reinterpreted as necessary. ing contradicts a three-year National off the air and will not return," Bell For example, there was no church nearby Research Council review (WN 1 announced that he would indeed come as predicted, so a church camp was November 1996) and monumental back. In addition to thanking his net­ counted as a hit. This technique of after- National Cancer Institute epidemiologi­ work and his fans for their support Bell the-fact matching is called retrofitting. cal studies (WN 4 July 1997). explained that "this was not any kind of One detective became further disillu­ The APS had earlier concluded (WN hoax or stunt. . . . This was and is a fam­ sioned with Alexander when he learned 5 May 1995) that "conjectures relating ily crisis, period," and that, "Should the she had previously been briefed on the cancer to power line fields have not been matter become public despite my best case by other investigators! scientifically substantiated." On efforts, I will have, believe me, a very Uncritical media reports aside, there September 26, 1998, the E-board reaf­ great deal to S3)' about it." Bell said that remains no proof that Greta Alexander firmed the APS position, adding that although "the difficulties . . . have not or anyone else has ever located a body or "in the period since, additional scientific been resolved yet," the situation had solved a crime by psychic means. studies and exhaustive epidemiological improved enough to allow him to surveys have uncovered no evidence of —Joe Nickell announce that starting on October 28 health effects from power line fields." he would again host the "Coast To Joe Nickell is Senior Research Fellow for Coast" broadcasts. And based on mes­ —Robert L Park CSICOP O

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Jinuiry/F*Druar, 1999 9 Fund Future CSICOP AT THE CENTER FOR INQUIRY The Ten-Year Plan 1.9.9-8 1998 Contributions are needed for current priorities: • Increased media appearances by skeptical PRIORITY spokespersons • Press releases, opinion pieces and media alerts

Using the Media & • Greater exposure through the Internet, includ­ Telecommunications ing webcasting

to Promote Science and Reason • National initiatives coordinated by the Council

The Fund for the Future is a capital campaign to provide for Media Integrity CSICOP the resources needed to more effectively influ­ • Instructional materials introducing skepticism ence media and public opinion. The 90s have been defined by a telecommunications revolution, along with to elementary and secondary school students an explosion of misinformation available to the scholar • Video production and citizen alike. The hunger for superstition, pseudo- science, the paranormal and miraculous solutions has Newsflash: This November CSICOP will convene a never been more acute. conference in Southern California to publicize many of these initiatives

Council for Media Integrity Formed just weeks after its inclusion in the Enhanced Library Resources Ten-Year Plan, the Council for Media Integrity will monitor The Center for Inquiry's skeptics' and rebut media pro­ library—already the grams that convey finest of its kind in the Adult Education unfounded claims and world—needs expanded The Council cosponsors mislead the public about funding to enlarge its the Center for Inquiry science. Members core collection and add Institute, which has include Steve Allen electronic media. World­ already expanded its (chair), Stephen Jay wide modem access to offerings to include a Gould, and many oth­ the library's catalog is new three-year certificate ers. CSICOP will invest already nearly complete. program in science and in electronic infrastruc­ skepticism. Sessions are ture to facilitate rapid scheduled in Amherst response to irresponsi­ and Los Angeles. ble programs. How Can You Help?

CSICOP has established its expertise and integrity. It's time to underwriting a long-term project which expresses your per­ command more media attention and a larger audience. The sonal interests and commitment to skepticism. Center for Inquiry Fund for the Future is about new methods of In today's stock market, gifts of highly appreciated securities outreach and broader influence, and is driven by an ambitious offer particular advantages to the donor. When donating stock ten-year strategic plan for growth. to a charitable organization, you avoid taxes and maximize We depend on the support of readers and friends to continue the impact of the asset you are donating. leading the international skeptical movement. Gifts to the Fund Contact Anthony Battaglia for the Future provide the resources we need to respond to at (716) 636-7571 ext. 311 today's challenges. or via e-mail at [email protected] All gifts are gratefully accepted. The Fund for the Future wel­ to discuss accomplishing your comes gifts of encouragement and major investments. philanthropic and financial goals

Cash contributions and gifts of stock are needed for immedi­ ate growth and new initiatives. We also offer a range of CSICOP planned giving opportunities, from bequests to assorted tax- at the Center for Inquiry advantages trusts and pooled funds. Planned gifts support our work in the future and can provide an income stream for you P.O. Box 703 and a beneficiary. You may also make a gift supporting the Amherst NY 14226-0703 general endowment, or establish a special purpose fund (716) 636-1425 Fax (716) 636-1733

Martin Gardner Honorary Co-chair

Steve Allen Honorary Co-chair

Regional Outreach

With the establishment of The Center for Inquiry-West (Los Angeles), The Center Priority For the Young for Inquiry-Midwest (Kansas City) and To present the skeptical message The Center for Inquiry-Rockies (Boulder, more compellingly to the young, Colorado), giant steps have been taken CSICOP will develop new materi­ to enhance direct field service to skepti­ als—ranging from age-appropriate cal activists. Additional regional Centers print publications to audio and video cassettes and instructional course- are planned with expanded calendars work. Goals include enhanced of activities. understanding of science and improved critical thinking skills. NOTES OF A FRINGE-WATCHER

The Internet: A World Brain?

World Brain, one of H.G. science news, a reduction in body cloth­ have been written by Enrico Fermi. Wells's many long-forgotten ing, and the collapse of Communism, Wells's physicist agonizes over the hor­ books, was published in although this did not happen until much rendous results sure to follow from his 1938. Although written before the com­ later than Wells had expected. achievement but he reasons that had he puter revolution, in many ways it antic­ The misses in Brownlow's newspaper not made it, other scientists soon would ipated the Internet and World Wide far exceed its hits. Wells thought that by have. The novel describes a world war Web. But first, some background on 1972 nations would have been rendered started by Germany's invasion of France Wells as a prophet. obsolete by the rise of a world govern­ in the middle of the twentieth century. In both science fiction and nonfic- ment. Heat from Earth's interior would What Wells called "atomic bombs" are tion, Wells's predictions were a fascinat­ replace fossil fuels. English spelling dropped from airplanes. The novel ing mix of hits and misses. He took seri­ would be simplified, the stock market closes with visions of space explorations, ously the belief in canals on Mars, and would vanish, the gorilla would be beginning with trips to "that great sil­ intelligent Martians arc featured in his extinct, newspapers would be printed on very disk," the Moon, "that must needs novel The War of the Worlds, and in sev­ paper made from aluminum, and a thir­ be man's first conquest of outer space." eral short stories. In Anticipations (1901) teen-month calender would be adopted World Brain, written while the clouds he thought it unlikely that airplanes worldwide. of World War II were gathering, consists "will ever come into play as a serious Wells failed to anticipate television ot lectures and a few magazine articles. modification of transport and commu­ even though Hugo Gernsback, who Wells sees knowledge increasing at an nication." In the same book's chapter on began reprinting Wells's science fiction accelerating pace. At the same time, modern warfare he wrote: "I must con­ in his Amazing Stories, was actually most people around the world remain fess that my imagination, in spite even broadcasting television pictures in the incredibly ignorant. As Wells had earlier of spurring, refuses to see any sort of twenties! One had to build a TV set to remarked, humanity is in a race between submarine doing anything but suffocate receive a postcard-size picture, but the education and catastrophe. What can be its crew and founder at sea." In The Way technology was well underway. done to raise the educational level of the the World is Going (1928) Wells antici­ Wells's last major effort to foresee the world? pated the "complete disappearance of future was his imagined world history, Humanity desperately needs, Wells radio broadcasting." The Shape of Things to Come (1932). Its was convinced, what he calls a In "The Queer Story of Brownlow's misses were huge. Like Brownlow's Permanent World Encyclopaedia. It Newspaper," first published in The newspaper, the book failed to foresee would take the form of some forty enor­ Ladies' Home Journal, April 1932, Wells television, space flight, atomic energy, or mous volumes that would be continu­ described the contents of a 1972 news­ computers. ally updated. At the time Wells wrote, paper. His hits include the use of color in Wells's wrong predictions were over­ specialized science journals were prolif­ newspapers, increasing space devoted to shadowed by his single most astonishing erating rapidly. Today there are some hit. His novel The World Set 19l4) fifty thousand of them worldwide. Martin Gardner's latest book. Visitors opens with passages from the diary of a What is needed so desperately, Wells From Oz, was published in October by St. physicist who has split the atom and maintained, is a central clearinghouse Martin's Press. released atomic energy. The diary could for this vast glut of information. The

12 January/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER great encyclopaedia would serve as a to come to the attention of scientists Today the computer revolution is "world brain" by means of which infor­ around the world arc now starting to changing the world in ways as hard to mation could be recorded and rapidly appear first as "e-prints" on the Internet, predict now as it was hard to predict the distributed around the world. that vast network of networks that consequences of the industrial revolu­ Wells likens the human race to intel­ allows computers around the world to tion. Almost every conceivable topic ligent persons with lesions in their communicate with one another. Great now has one or more Web sites. Nearly brains—huge gaps between available efforts have been squandered in the past anyone, of any age, race, sex, or intelli­ information and public understanding. on research that duplicated work done gence can start a Web page. The 1998 Horses have been replaced by cars, years before but which was unknown to edition of Luckman's massive World trains, and airplanes, Wells writes, but the rediscoverers. Today, such wasteful Wide Web Yellow Pages lists ten thousand Web sites, a mere fraction of the total humanity is still in a horse-and-buggy duplications are unlikely to occur number that grows larger every hour. stage. He emphasizes the rapid increase because scientists can turn on search Are you interested in learning more in travel and communication—what he engines and quickly track down previ­ about any famous person? Chances are calls the "abolition of distance." Yet in ously published reports. high that you will find Web pages spite of such spectacular technical "This Encyclopaedic organization," devoted to that person. Popular science progress the world is like a ship in Wells wrote, "need not be concentrated magazines, weekly news magazines, unchartered waters, sailing sluggishly in one place; it might have the form of a leading newspapers, and news television toward a world community. For Wells, network. It would centralize mentally shows such as CNN and C-Span now his mammoth encyclopedia would be a but perhaps not physically. ... It is its have their Web sites. A dozen sites arc powerful force for unifying nations and files and its conference rooms which devoted to cigars alone! Every major speeding the coming of a war-free world. would be the core of its being, the essen­ religion and bizarre little cult is online. Because English is now the world's tial Encyclopaedia. It would constitute Thousands of literary classics can be most used language, Wells expected his the material beginning of a real World downloaded. Entire encyclopedias are Encyclopaedia to be in English. It would Brain." draw upon all the libraries of the world where information would be stored on "This Encyclopaedic organization," Wells wrote, microfilm: "need not be concentrated in one place; it might It seems possible that in the near future we shall have microscopic have the form of a network." libraries of record in which a photo­ graph of every important book and From this continually updated fount available on a single CD-ROM. Entire- document in the world will be stowed away and made available for the of information, Wells wrote, runs of certain magazines such as inspection of the student. . . . Cheap would be drawn a scries of textbooks National Geographic arc on CD-ROMs. standardized projectors offer no diffi­ and shorter relercnce encyclopaedias More and more libraries, including the culties. The bearing of this upon the and encyclopaedic dictionaries for Library of Congress, are putting their material form of a World individual and casual use. That card catalogs online. Encyclopaedia is obvious. . . . The crudely is the gist of what I am sub­ time is close at hand when any stu­ mitting to you. A double-faced orga­ Consider my own hobby, conjuring. dent, in any part of the world, will be nization, a perpetual digest and con­ At last count there were almost two able to sit with his projector in his ference on the one hand and a system hundred Web sites devoted to such top­ own study at his or her convenience of publication and distribution on the ics as magic history, card tricks, magic to examine any book, any document, other. It would be a clearing house for in an exact replica. universities and research institutions; organizations, and magic periodicals. it would play the role of a cerebral Almost fifty are sponsored by magic We can forgive Wells for not antici­ cortex to these essential ganglia. On equipment dealers. More than a hun­ the one hand this organization should dred are run by individual magicians! pating computers. Change "projector" to be in direct touch with ail the original "computer" in the above passage and thought and research in the world; on Stores of all sorts arc going online to Wells's vision is surprisingly accurate. the other it should extend its inform­ sell goods, especially new and rare books, Today a college student, even a high ing tentacles to every intelligent indi­ that you can purchase without leaving vidual in the community—the new your home. You can buy groceries, a car, school student, is expected to own a world community. computer. At a few touches of the keys, an airplane ticket, even browse through pages from millions of books and jour­ flea markets on the Web. Businesses are Although Wells could not have nals in libraries throughout the world starting to decentralize into "virtual known it at the time, he was writing can instantly flash on a monitor. Copies offices" where employees can work at about the Internet and the World Wide of art in museums can be downloaded in home. Fiber optics will soon be replacing Web. How amazed and delighted he full color. With suitable equipment, copper wires, allowing thousands of mes­ would have been by this revolution had music and voice recordings can be heard. sages to be transmitted simultaneously he lived another half century! Research papers that once took years over one fiber line. Cyberspace is only in

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Janua'y/February 1999 13 its infancy! You want to talk to people all over the Lost among the thousands of sites world? People don't talk to the guy Were Wells alive today I think he devoted to bogus science and the occult next door. ... A guy calls you up and would be writing about the Net's good lie's got the wrong number. Do you are a minuscule number of sites run by and bad teatures. He would, of course, start a conversation?. . . . Last week a skeptics. Here are few main ones: be enthusiastic about how the Net is guy tells me: "I spoke to a chap from CSICOP/skeptical Inquirer: speeding communication among scien­ Siberia, a mountain climber from Siberia.". ... If a mountain climber www.csicop.org tists and scholars. He would welcome from Siberia came over to your house the way it is bringing diverse cultures and said, "Hello. I'm a mountain Australian Skeptics: closer together into a kind of global vil­ climber!" Would you say, "Come in, www.skeptics.com.au lage of residents less inclined to slaugh­ I'm dying to talk to you! All my life I James Randi Foundation: ter one another. wanted to talk to a mountain climber from Siberia!" :-) www.randi.org On the other hand, I fancy that Wells would also deplore the darker corners of Anyone online can turn on a search National Center for Science Education cyberspace. The incredible amount of engine to contact a thousand Web sites on evolution versus creationism: valid information available to anyone devoted to pseudosciencc, the paranor­ www.natcenscied.org online is not easily distinguished from mal, and the occult. Yahoo! lists multiple Skeptic magazine: the equally incredible smog of junk sci­ sites on biorhythm, alchemy, ghosts, www.skeptic.com ence, sleaze, and nonsense. At the astral projection, crop circles, dowsing, moment, the Net is in a state of anarchy spontaneous human combustion, the Quackwatch, Stephen Barrett's pages with almost no government controls. hollow earth, witchcraft, voodoo, palm­ on health frauds: Do we need such controls? If so, how far istry, sea monsters, and hundreds of other www.quackwatch.com should they go? At the moment, anyone outrageous topics. Countless sites art- Robert Carroll's Skeptic's Dictionary: can say anything on the Web. devoted to UFOs and parapsychology as www.skepdic.com Cyberspace is infested with idiots, con well. Astrology alone has some 150 sites! artists, and purveyors of cybersmut. Hundreds of sites deal with every News of interest to skeptics: Advertising, especially the annoying ads variety of alternative medicine: iridology www.skepticnews.com that pop up in corners of the monitor, (diagnosing ills from spots on the iris), Prometheus Books: increasingly contaminate computer crystal healing, therapeutic touch, natur­ www.prometheusbooks.com screens. As someone has said, it's like opathy, aromatherapy, urine therapy, opening your mailbox and finding one homeopathy, orgone therapy, and on Also on the Net's downside is the letter, two bills, and sixty thousand and on. Scientists may have learned how increasing number of computer owners pieces of junk mail. :-( to use the Web wisely to keep up with suffering from a new addiction compa­ Stand-up comic Jackie Mason, in his global research, but the average browser rable to alcoholism and compulsive recent one-man Broadway show, had is hard put to filter out the trash, not to gambling. Millions of netomaniacs these comments about netheads who mention the hardcore pornography that spend all their spare time surfing the boast of being able to converse with the government doesn't yet know how to Net, participating in chat rooms (there strangers: curb. now are some twenty thousand of them!), checking news groups, playing computer games, and corresponding with persons whose character and even TWO EASY WAYS age they may not know. Elderly men to reference your issues of and women find themselves in erotic dialogue with teen-agers. Youngsters Skeptical Inquirer may be induced to meet child molesters. Unsuspecting browsers may not be aware when they are victims of hoaxes BINDERS and practical jokes. in the small ($8.95) or What Wells liked to call humanity's large ($10.95) format. current "age of confusion" is certainly Large-format binder holds up to 20 issues. reflected in the vast confusion of the Small holds up to 8. Web. It will surely be many decades before the Internet settles down, if it To order make your check payable to CSICOP and return to: ever does, into a healthy, admirable CSICOP. PO Box 703, Amherst, NY 14226 world brain, a force for good that Wells MasterCard or Visa orders may call toll-free 1 -800-634-1610 hoped would hasten the coming of a saner world. LJ

14 January/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER INVESTIGATIVE FILES

The Case of the Petrified Girl

aised in the hills of eastern fears the grave would be robbed and the ing surnames and the similarity of given Kentucky, I grew up with the body exhibited in a side show—the girl's names ("Nannie" easily being garbled R legend of the "petrified girl." Set body was reburied in an unmarked into "Minnie"), together with other par­ in the little farming village of Ezel, near grave, the location of which was there­ allel details including the same age and a my hometown in Morgan County, the after kept a secret. However, one versi­ brother George, persuaded me I had story evokes religious accounts of fied account claims that the fears were found my quarry. The burial at Ezel was "incorruptible" corpses as well as ghoul­ actually realized: "To this day, her body an especially corroborative fact, and so ish tales of the "undead." had never been found, / Because her (I would soon learn) was the time period Late in the last century—one brother George sold her stone body for in question. account says "in 1880," another "the many crowns / to a museum for display; Further searching through back 1880s," still another "around 1900"— she brought in crowds. / People viewed issues of the Herald turned up the fol­ workmen were moving graves from the her with awe in disbelief with frowns" lowing report, dated February 17, 1888: old Ezel burying ground to a new ceme­ (Plumlee 1993). "The people of Ezel, feeling that the tery site. In some accounts the reason location of the grave yard [sic] has had for the relocation is not recalled, but Documentation much to do with the epidemic of sick­ most state it was due to a typhoid epi­ ness, on Wednesday commenced to demic that stemmed from the grave­ Involving aspects of folklore analysis, remove those who are there buried to a yard's pollution of local wells. In the historical and paranormal research, more suitable place. We understand fifty course of the disinterments, the men forensic pathology, and other disci­ graves will be required to accommodate uncovered the grave of a young girl. plines, my investigation began with the the coffins removed." The following Some vague accounts have neither name collection of various narratives and per­ issue reported: "Ezel, Feb. 20 . . . A nor age for her, while others reach near sonal interviews, then progressed to a beautiful site has been procured for the agreement that she was "a 17-year-old search through the death notices in the public grave yard at this place, and the daughter of a Mr. and Mrs. Wheeler" or Hazel Green Herald. There was no work of transferring the dead from the more specifically "Minnie Wheeler, a "Minnie Wheeler" listed, but there was old to new grave yard has begun, and seventeen-year-old girl." this entry in the Wednesday, October 7, will continue until all are moved." When her casket was reached it was 1885, issue: "Miss Nannie Wheeler, I expected next to see a report on the reportedly too heavy to be lifted. But daughter of J.W Wheeler, of Grassy, discovery of Nannie's "petrified" body, more men and ropes were obtained, and died of flux [unnatural discharge] on but, in one of the most disappointing a hole was drilled in the coffin to let last Thursday, and was buried at Ezel on moments in my career as an investigator, water out. Finally the still-heavy casket Friday. Miss Wheeler was about 17 years I learned there was a gap in the record— was lifted out of the grave and opened, of age." ("Last Thursday" would have whereupon the girl was discovered to meant that she died on October 1, Joe Nickell is Senior Research Fellow of the have been petrified; even her clothing, 1885.) Federal census records revealed Committee far the Scientific Investigation says one narrative, had turned to stone that "Nannie" was actually Nancy A. of Claims of the Paranormal and author (Nickell 1994). and that among her five siblings was a of numerous books including Looking For Supposedly—some say because of younger brother, George W. The match­ a Miracle.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 1999 15 remained free, or apparently free, of decomposition. Although comparatively rare, there are numerous reports of "incorruptible" corpses. In more than one instance investigation has shown that the body had, in fact, been embalmed. In many other cases the body is actually mummi­ fied—i.e., desiccated—a condition that can occur naturally under certain condi­ tions (such as being kept in sandy soil or in a dry tomb or catacombs). (It can also be induced by embalming.) Several sup­ posedly "incorruptible" bodies of Catholic saints are revealingly described as "having brown, dry skin with the tex­ ture of leather," or being "darkened and A relocated cemetary in Ezel, Kentucky, supposedly holds among its secrets a "petrified girl,' wrinkled with age," even "completely believed buried among these graves. (Photo by Joe Nickell) mummified" (Cruz 1977). Some of the corpses on display in glass coffins have missing issues of the newspaper during Often, bodies are said to be petrified had to be extensively repaired—for the relevant period. I was therefore when observers are simply astonished to example being treated with resin and forced to rely on hand-me-down narra­ find them in a surprising state of preser­ braced with wire, and even, like St. tives. Although, as I have already indi­ vation. For example, there is a persistent Bernadette of Lourdes, having the cated, these are quite variable as to legend that die corpse of Abraham exposed face covered with a wax mask details, the effect of the discovery comes Lincoln was "petrified" and indeed had (Cruz 1977; Nickell 1993, 85-93). through quite clearly. But was Nannie's "turned to stone" when it was observed But what about cases in which the body really petrified? in a well-preserved state while his body corpse had not been kept in dry condi­ was on tour after his assassination in tions but rather was found intact despite Petrifaction? 1865, as well as upon reburials in 1886 perpetually wet conditions? As forensic and 1901. On the latter occasion, his pathologists and anthropologists know, On the one hand, the water that was corpse was described as resembling "a a body that has been submerged in reportedly drained from the coffin could statue of himself lying there." In fact, water or in wet soil for a long time may be an indication that conditions were the body had been expertly embalmed form a soaplike substance called right for petrifaction. That occurs when and had been kept in an airtight coffin adipocere, which may develop in the ground water containing dissolved min­ (Lewis 1929). outer layer of fat after three months or eral salts infiltrates buried organic mate­ I researched another Morgan County more (Spitz 1993, 38). It is estimated to rial, replacing the decaying matter with case that occurred in 1921 when the become "complete in adult bodies" after the minerals while preserving the shape body of a woman who had died else­ "a year to a year and a half" (Gonzales et and even the cellular structure of the where was brought home by train. al. 1954, 68). Adipocere was once original material ("Petrifaction" 1986). When people touched her well-pre­ thought to be caused by the body's fat On the other hand, true petrifaction served body, it felt "hard," and several turning literally into soap; actually it is in the case of a coffin burial would be thought it was "petrified," aldiough the due to the decomposition of the fat into exceedingly unlikely. Several "petrified" railway company physician explained insoluble salts of fatty acids, producing a people have been outright hoaxes, the body was simply embalmed—some­ yellowish-white substance popularly including the Forest City Man, shown thing the rural folk were relatively unfa­ known as "grave wax." It usually forms at die World's Columbian Exposition in miliar with (Nickell 1994). in the face and buttocks, but may affect Chicago in 1893; the Pine River Man In the case of young Nancy Wheeler, any pan of die body. Depending on the (made of water-lime, sand, and gravel) the excessive weight of her coffin could subsequent conditions, the body may "discovered" in 1876; the Colorado well have been due to its having been eventually take on the leathery effect of Man (faked for P. T. Barnum at a cost of waterlogged (as in fact described), mummification, or may in time decom­ $2,000); and others, including die noto­ and/or due to die story's exaggeration pose completely (Ubelaker and rious Cardiff Giant (unearthed at over time. But what about die unusual Scammell 1992; Geberth 1993). (Many Cardiff, New York in 1869) preservation itself? It is extremely of die "incorruptible" bodies of saints (MacDougall 1958, 23-24; Stein 1993, unlikely that her body was embalmed, are only temporarily preserved and are 13-14, 145). yet after nearly diirty months it had later found to be reduced to skeletons

16 January/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER [Nickell 1993]). mation. Reportedly, a woman's body, Rockford. III.: Tan Books and Publishers. Geberth. Vernon J. 1993. Practical Homicide In certain European (e.g., Slavic) and being relocated to another cemetery, was Investigation. Boca Raton. Fla: CRC Press, other countries the discovery of a pre­ found to be "petrified." If it is true that 571-572. served corpse may provoke a bizarre (after several months) "the flowers on Gonzales, Thomas A. el al. 1954. Legal Medicine, second ed. New York: Applcton-Ccntury- response. Some people believe such her breast seemed as fresh as on the day of Crofts. preservation means the person is one of her burial" (emphasis added), that is Lewis, Lloyd. 1929. Myths After Lincoln. the "undead," so they may drive a more consistent with their having been Reprinted Gloucester, Mass.: Peter Smith. 1973, 259-289). wooden stake through the corpse's heart kept under cool, wet conditions than MacDougall. Curtis D. 1958. Hoaxes. New York: and then burn the body to end the with a claim of petrifaction, since flow­ Dover. imagined ghoulish activities of the ers that were actually petrified would Nickell, Joe. 1993. Looking for a Miracle. Buffalo. "vampire" (Wilson and Wilson 1992). have looked like stone. Significantly, N.Y.: Prometheus Books. . 1994. "Historical Sketches: Petrified there was "a spring which boiled up Most likely, adipocere produced the Girl," Licking Valley Courier, November 3. nearby" (Whalen 1981). "petrified" appearance of Nannie (Except as otherwise noted, information on this case is taken from this source, which pro­ Wheeler's corpse which was reportedly As to the story about Nannie's body vides more detailed documentation.) unearthed in conditions of excessive sat­ being placed on display, that is probably "Petrifaction." 1986. Encyclopedia Americana. uration from ground water. Certainly untrue, being absent from all but one Plumlee. Mary Irene. 1993. "The Major Accent- in "Poem Puts Accent on Ezel at Century's her body does appear to have been well account. It was apparently based on Turn." Licking Valley Courier, January 14. preserved—some say as beautiful as she someone having seen a body in a Spitz, Werner U.. ed. 1993. Spitz and Fisher's had been in life, with her hands still museum (reportedly in Cincinnati) that Medicolegal Investigation of Death, 3rd ed. clutching her hat. However the time was thought to resemble the teenager. Springfield, 111.: Charles C. Thomas. Stein, Gordon. 1993. Encyclopedia of Hoaxes. between burial and disinterment had It is an irony that the young lady has Detroit: Gale Research. been less than two and a half years, and come to be better known for her repose Ubelaker, Douglas, and Henry Scammell. 1992. there have been instances of excellent Bones: A Forensic Detective's Casebook. New in death than for her all-too-brief life, but York: HarperCollins, 150-15 1. preservation over much longer periods— such is the effect that mystery can have. Whalen. Dwight. 1981. "Petrified Women." Fate, even without apparent embalming. July. References Wilson. Colin, and Damon Wilson. 1992. An 1896 Massachusetts case may Unsolved Mysteries Past and Present. Chicago: likewise be explained by adipocere for­ Cruz, Joan Carroll. 1977. The Lncorruptibles. Contemporary Books, 368-400. D Science Meets Alternative Medicine FERE

Science and Alternative Medicine Mind/Body Therapies FEBRUARY 26-28,1999 (AM): Exploring Points of Conflict Case Study: Herbs and Warwick Hotel, Philadelphia (Plenary) Supplements Physics. Scientific Law, and AM and Medical Ethics Sponsored by The Scientific Review of Alternative Homeopathy (Concurrent) Medicine and The Committee for the Scientific Biochemistry and Nutritional Therapeutic Touch: What Is the Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal (CSICOP) Supplements Harm? Biology and life Forces' Keynote Speakers: The Ethics of Alternative Medicine Clinical Errors in Alternative George 0. Lundberg, MD, editor of the Journal of the Is It Right to Promote Unproven Medicine American Medical Association Therapies? Marcia Angell, MO. executive editor of the New AM and the Psychology of Belief and Perception (Plenary) AM. Government, and the Law England Journal of Medicine The Psychology of Belief (Concurrent) Why Worthless Therapies Seem The FDA and Unproven Health Conference Fees: to Work Claims $250—Admission to all sessions (S125 for students) Personal 'Conversions' to AM Perils of the Marketplace: Profits. $30—Banquet. Saturday night, February 27 Therapies Hype, and Harm For more details and registration, contact Scientific Critiques of AM Educating Physicians and CSICOP Therapies and Theories (Plenary) Consumers (Concurrent) Attn: Barry Karr The Crisis of Herbal Cures in AM and Medical Journals P.O. Box 703. Amherst. NY 14226 Europe AM and Medical Schools Tel: (716) 636-1425 Ext. 217 • Fax:(716)636-1733 Acupuncture Critical Thinking for Physicians E-mail: [email protected] Chiropractic Why We Need Better AM Naturopathy Research

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 1999 17 PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS Robert SHEAF

Apocalypse Soon

ome say the world will end by ice, will cease to function! Domino effect communications, and financial markets. others say by fire, and still others will cause a worldwide depression!" What about Social Security and Ssay by computer glitches. While Given that this publication has, over the Medicare?" The result, says North, will there has long been the general expecta­ years, rarely allowed any snippets of be nothing less than catastrophic: "I tion that something absolutely dreadful nonfiction to intrude upon its wonder­ think the division of labor will collapse would happen in the year 2000—the fully made-up stories, one might at first in 2000. If the power grid goes com­ Reverend Louis Farrakhan still foresees a assume that their Y2K crash-and-burn pletely down, it will stay down. The plague of earthquakes, hailstorms and scenario is as bogus as their story about division of labor will collapse to early floods—until recently doomsayers soap made with holy water that revives nineteenth century levels, except that we couldn't agree on just what was going to the dead. But a lot of people are taking have lost early nineteenth century do us in. But suddenly most doomsayers such cries of an impending Cyber- skills." now agree that the Year 2000 Problem Armageddon very seriously indeed. If this scares you so much that you for computers is the menace that will Longtime fire-and-brimstone author want to head for the hills, entrepreneurs bring about the end of civilization. Gary North has devoted his entire Web are getting the hills are ready for you. A Sometimes called the "Y2K" or "millen­ site to the year 2000, which he calls "the development called Heritage Farms nium" bug, it is the result of the short­ year the earth stands still" (see warns of "The Millennium. The Y2K sighted programming technique of www.garynorth.com). This is the same Computer Meltdown. Economic employing only two digits to represent a author who, in None Dare Call it Recession/Depression. Doomsayers pre­ year, presupposing that the first two dig­ Witchcraft, warned us that UFO and dict nothing short of total collapse its would always be "19." No one denies paranormal manifestations are indeed within the next two years. Will any of it that the Y2K problem is very serious, real, but demonic in origin. North is a happen? We don't know, and we seri­ and the computer industry is now leading spokesman for an extremist fun­ ously hope not, but the mounting evi­ spending a lot of money to repair it. damentalist sect, who has written of his dence was convincing enough to make However, according to some ic's hope that our present society will col­ us look for a place to ride out the tur­ already too late, and it's time to head for lapse so that it can be reconstructed moil. We have now found it in Arizona!" the hills. The Sept. 15, 1998, issue of according to strict Biblical guidelines. Located 180 miles northeast of Phoenix, the Weekly World News proclaims The Y2K problem, he warns, "may be Arizona Heritage Farms promises that its January 1, 2000, as "The Day The Earth the biggest problem that the modern "capability of total self-sufficiency, and Will Stand Still." "All banks will fail! world has ever faced. I think it is. At 12 independence from outside energy Food supplies will be depicted! midnight on January 1, 2000 (a sources" makes it "the model rural village Electricity will be cut off! The stock Saturday morning), most of the world's for what may be a whole new way of life market will crash! Vehicles using com­ mainframe computers will cither shut in the first part of the next century" (sec puter chips will stop dead! Telephones down or begin spewing out bad data . . . http://www.heritagefarms2000.com). Think of what happens if the following "500 families of the New Millennium Robert Sheaffers World Wide Web page for areas go down and stay down for can grow their own food and food for UFOs and other skeptical subjects is at months or even years: banks, railroads, their neighbors to purchase or barter. http:unvw.debunker.com. public utilities, telephone lines, military They will harvest electrical energy from

18 Jinuaiy/Februar, I999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER the sun and wind." Their original plan York City even if Y2K hadn't come destroyed. The system works with no for a Y2K refuge in Sully County, South along" He suggests, however, that Y2K human intervention and sends coded Dakota, was unanimously voted down was a major factor in that decision: "I've messages to the missile silos." This auto­ by local zoning officials, who feared that often joked that I expect New York to matic launching system is only supposed a doomsday cult might be forming in resemble Beirut if even a subset of the to be switched on if an attack is believed their midst. Kevin Poulsen of Ziff-Davis Y2K infrastructure problems actually to be imminent, but Perez, like all Y2K TV says, "As planned, the Y2K village materialize—but it's really not a joke. catastrophists, assumes that the worst- would be one half refuge from millennial It's likely to be fairly cold on New Year's case scenario is always the inevitable one: madness, and one half Disneyland. Main weekend, and a combination of disrup­ "Since the Year 2000 begins at the Street would be clean and neat with an tions in utilities, telecommunications, International Date line in the Pacific and Old West theme." A splendid place, no banking, schools, hospitals, airports, moves westward across Siberia and doubt, to stand by and watch the specta­ unemployment checks, Social Security Russia, the first part of the Russian cle of the collapse of civilization. checks, food stamps, and/or welfare nuclear arsenal that would be affected If you're not quite ready to head for checks would be enough to make the will be the missile silos in Siberia and the hills but want to stockpile food for citizens of New York extraordinarily eastern Russia." Supposedly, computers anticipated Y2K chaos, check out grumpy. There's enough gunfire in the at missile sites in Siberia, believing that www.y2kfood4u.com, one of many streets even in normal times, and I'm Moscow has been destroyed because they "survivalist" Y2K sites. They offer bulk not comfortable exposing my family to cannot communicate with areas where rations of long-storage freeze-dricd food the city's ill humor if Y2K turns out to the date is still 1999, will switch over to to help ensure your survival for however be a serious problem." Yourdon posi­ the automatic system and begin firing many months or years it may take for tively agonizes over the social responsi­ nuclear missiles at the U.S. But wait, your grocery store to get their cash reg­ bilities of programmers who, convinced there's more: "On August 22nd, 1999, isters back online in the new millen­ that a Y2K disaster is unavoidable, head the GPS [Global Positioning Satellite] nium. There is even a "Year 2000 for the hills: "[N]ot every Y2K program­ system is scheduled to break down," Problem Site Exclusively Designed for mer can realistically contemplate leaving according to Perez, a statement that the Women" (http://www.y2kwomen.com), town for a safe haven. Some have aging U.S. Defense Department would explaining "The Year 2000 Computer parents or other family members who strongly dispute. "If that system isn't up Problem: The 10 Things Every Woman categorically refuse to leave the urban on December 31st 1999, the United Must Do Now to Keep Herself and Her environment in which they reside; and States would be utterly defenseless and Family Safe." Presenting gloom-and- some have a combination of financial, unable to launch a retaliatory strike." doom survivalism with a gentle femi­ emotional, physical, or other miscella­ In recent months, Y2K survivalist nine touch, it contains advice on how to neous reasons that require them to stay advertising became a mainstay on Art handle all of the expected privations of where they are . . . the safe-haven debate Bell's late-night, high-weirdness nation­ the impending millennium, even ultimately comes down to a simple and wide radio show, paying many of the including an expected interruption in basic question: what responsibility do bills for the nonstop conspiracy-and- the supply of disposable products for Y2K programmers have to stay on the UFO chatter. Indeed, many Y2K feminine hygiene. job after December 31, 1999? If we doomsday Web sites link in to "www.art- The spiritual leader of the doomsay- assume that every programmer works bell.com." Then suddenly on the morn­ ers is a man whose judgment was, until eighteen hours a day, seven days a week, ing of October 13 at 02:55. just before recently, seldom questioned: Ed at whatever Y2K job he/she should be signing off, Bell announced without Yourdon. A thirty-five-year veteran of expected to carry out between now and warning, "You may recall about a year the computer industry, Yourdon attained December 31,1999, then do we have a ago ... I told you that there was an prominence in computer science as the right to expect continued loyalty beyond event, a threatening terrible event lead developer of the structured analy­ that point?" occurred to my family, which I could not sis/design methods of the 1970s, as well As if starvation and riots were not tell you about." (Despite the existence of as a co-developer of contemporary serious enough problems, some proclaim a virtually complete on-line archive of methods of object-oriented analysis (see that the Millennium Bug threatens the sound files from Bell's shows, no one has www.yourdon.com). But now Yourdon ultimate disaster: nuclear war. According yet found this supposed warning.) has written Time Bomb 2000, which has to an article by conspiracy theorist "Because of that event, and a succession become a bible to the sky-is-falling Daniel Perez (see http://www.tcrminaior of other events, what you're listening to crowd. Yourdon writes that, "My wife 3armagcddon.com/conspira/nukcy2k.ht right now is my final broadcast on the air. and I recently sold our New York City ml), "[T]hc Russian 'doomsday system' This is it folks, I'm going off the air and apartment and bought a house in a is designed to be switched over to auto­ will not return." This announcement, of small town in New Mexico; but I'm not matic mode by military commanders abandoning the computer field, and I and only launch Russia's missiles if it PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS would have been moving out of New senses that the city of Moscow h3S been continued on page 55

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 1999 19 ARMAGEDDON AND THE PROPHETS OF DOOMSDAY

Fears of the Apocalypse The Escape from Reason

Millennium

PAUL KURTZ

s the world about to end? Are we living in the last days of civilization? Will the human species and the planet Earth Ibe engulfed in fire storms, earthquakes, floods, or be destroyed by the impact of an asteroid? As we approach the year 2000 we are surrounded by prophets of doom who pre­ dict that terrible disasters await us. Obviously the year 2000 has special significance in these scenarios, for it marks the beginning of a new millennium. The year 2000 and the years soon thereafter seem to be the deadline for many end-time prophets. But we may ask: Does the new millennium start January 1, 2000 or 2001? The calendar we use begins at year 1 instead of 0 — for a zero was left out in the transition from B.C. to A.D. Thus, a century does not begin with a double-zero

20 January/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER year, but ends with it. If this is the case, the new century and mil­ France would overcome their recession, unemployment would lennium begin with an (11-year, not an 00-year. be solved, the Asian and Russian economic slump would But it is not clear that 2001 is the beginning of the new become a thing of the past, and gross domestic products would millennium, because the Western world measures it by the continue to expand is prosperity gains. This scenario was one birth of Jesus Christ. But many Biblical scholars agree that we of unlimited horizons. By contrast, the bears focus on the neg­ know very little if anything about him, though many believe ative: The year-2000 computer bug will wreak havoc every­ that he was actually born four to six years before the year A.D. where, they warn, oil shortages will appear, either deflation If this is the case, the third millennium might already may will overcome us or inflation will re-ignite, and the Dow-Jones have begun in 1996, not in 2000! stock exchange average will plummet from 9,300 to 3,000 in The millennium is actually a human creation of our cul­ a short period of time. Here the pessimists prevail. Following ture, an arbitrary date in eternity. Why it should be of special the scenario of the Dutch Tulip bubble bust, crowd psychol­ significance is muddled, aside from its religious meaning or ogy rules the day. as the public is engulfed first by the fervor of cultural bias. speculative binge and then by pessimistic forecasts of doom. Most non-Christian cultures in the world do not measure One may ask: whose prophecy of the future will prevail—the the calendar by the date of Christ's birth. The Chinese year in optimists, pessimists, or neither? 1998 is 4696, the Hebrew calendar 5760. For the Muslims, Another key source of present doomsday scenarios is sci­ the calendar begins in 622 A.D., when Muhammad went from ence fiction, in which the future is unusually bleak: either Big Mecca to Medina, and 1998 is actually the year 1420. It is Brother will emerge, or complete anarchy will prevail. Science 6236 according to the ancient Egyptian calendar, 2749 for the projects doomsday asteroids or comets striking the earth. Deep Babylonian, 2544 for the Buddhist, 5119 for the Mayan great Impact and Armageddon, two Hollywood movies, arouse fear cycle, and 2753 according to the old Roman calendar. and terror, and Jurassic Park brings back the dinosaurs to The Gregorian calendar was first initiated by Pope Gregory devour us. XIII in 1582, replacing the Roman Julian calendar of Julius Probably the most frightening secular prognostications art- Caesar, which was ten days different from today's. After the environmental scenarios of runaway population growth and decline of Rome, Britain celebrated New Year's Eve on devastating ecological pollution. December 25th—until William the Conqueror changed New Many of these forecasts are not end-of-the-world predic­ Year's to January 1. 1066, the date of his coronation. Britain tions, but they illustrate the difficulties of making long-range subsequently changed it to March 25th, and later to accord extrapolations. Of course there are real dangers—from envi­ with other countries. The French desired Easter Sunday to be ronmental damage to nuclear war—and we need to be aware New Year's Day. For the Chinese, New Year's Day is at the end of them and to take rational precautions; for example, global of February.' warming and the depletion of the ozone layer. I am surely not Thus, January 1, 2000 or 2001 is really a meaningless non- denying that there are genuine problems that need to be seri­ event—an expression of Western socio-cultural prejudice, of ously addressed. But not too long ago we were warned that the no special significance in the nature of things. world would be overtaken by famine, that hundreds of mil­ lions—even billions—of people would starve to death, and that the cities and countrysides would be teeming with swollen Secular Doomsday Prophecies bellies. Contrary to expectations, India and other impover­ Nonetheless, there is a perennial concern for the future. ished countries have managed to increase their food produc­ Human beings always wish to peer ahead and know what will tion, and while there arc famines in Africa, the predicted ensue tomorrow or next year or in the next century. Many of worldwide famine has not occurred. these interests are based on expectations of a better and more Demographers told us only a decade ago that population promising world. But there are often predictions of gloom, growth would increase exponentially and that there was no and great apprehension. way to stop it. By the year 2000, they said, there would be Three kinds of forecasts may be distinguished among the seven billion inhabitants on the earth, and by 2020, 1 5 billion Doomsday prophecies. First, secular predictions. We recently or more. But, in many parts of the world, there has been a sig­ enjoyed a period of great economic optimism, as stock mar­ nificant decrease in the rate of population growth; and the kets, at least in Europe and America, soared. The bulls dashed extreme projections for 2020 are most likely exaggerated. forward with rosy forecasts. There was sustained technological Some ecologists maintained only twenty years ago that by scientific expansion. Some people even predicted a long boom 1980 the atmosphere would be so polluted that we would in which the economic cycle had been overcome. This was based on new industries: telecommunications and the infor­ Paul Kurtz is Chairman of the Committee for the Scientific mation revolution, biogenelic research, and space technolo­ Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal and Professor Emeritus gies. Under this scenario the bulls predicted that Germany and of Philosophy, State University of New York at Buffalo.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Janujry/feoruary 1999 21 need to wear gas masks year-round—not even in Los Angeles change the face of society. No doubt we will continue to expe­ has this occurred! They warned that many of our lakes and rience recessions, possibly even depressions, in the future. waterways would be so despoiled that all of their fish and plant Marx predicted armageddon for the capitalist system. Millions life would be destroyed. The Great Lakes, they said, would be of pessimists are still waiting for that to occur. They think totally dead. President Lyndon Johnson in 1968 visited the every recession will lead to a worldwide economic collapse. Buffalo River in western New York and ignited it with a Interestingly, George Orwell's 1984 has arrived and passed and match. Massive efforts to clean it up followed. There has been our freedoms are still intact, much to everyone's surprise. a noticeable increase in the fish harvest in Lake Erie, and the Overhanging all of this is the sword of Damocles—nuclear lake seems to be coming back. Ecologists have warned that we energy. Nuclear fears engulfed large sectors of society. would deplete our natural resources and run out of oil, gas, Anything related to radiation was considered diabolical. In and other fossil fuels in the near future. In the long run they many countries the public shrinks in terror at the thought of are probably correct, but new resources have been discovered the opening of new nuclear power plants. The greatest fear of and new sources of energy developed. all is the fear of a thermonuclear holocaust. We are admon­ A frenzied phobia of the unknown surrounds the additives ished on all sides that death stares us in the face and that some and chemical wastes of modern technological society. There is miscalculation would inevitably trigger a worldwide nuclear fear of cancer-causing agents; everything from fluoride to war. The results, we were told, will be a nuclear winter and the sugar has been claimed to be noxious. near extinction of all life on this planet. This was the Age of We have been told by successive Cassandras that the immi­ Anxiety par excellence. nent collapse of major banks would bring down the entire Pessimists become angry at realists who think that civiliza­ world financial system, that galloping inflation was uncontrol­ tion and the human species are likely to muddle through lable, and thai we were on the verge ol a depression thai would periodic crises and mini-crises but still survive these end-of-

22 ianuary/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER the-world forecasts. I am only advising that we place them in seven years of terrible tribulation will soon befall mankind. a balanced perspective. But to say this infuriates those who are This period is about to begin because the Jewish people after convinced that our whole universe will collapse. In one film the long Diaspora have finally returned to their ancient home­ Woody Allen worried about what modern astronomers have to land in Palestine, which they left after the destruction of the say about the cosmos, that there are two ultimate possibilities: Temple of Jerusalem in A.D. 70. And it is a genuine reality, we cither the universe will expand into infinity, cool down, and are told, because of the establishment of the State of Israel. die, or eventually collapse into itself like an accordion. Next, Lindsey says, the Israelis will rebuild the temple in For many the Apocalypse seems to be almost a wish fulfill­ Jerusalem. Then a whole scries of cataclysmic events will trig­ ment. The mundane world lacks the drama that a fertile apoc­ ger the final Armageddon. A great war will ensue. Israel will be alyptic imagination produces. invaded from all sides: by a confederacy from the North (which was said to be the Russians), by the Arab nations, and by a great power from the East (which was identified as the Religious Doomsday Prophecies Chinese). During the period leading up to these events, there A second area for Doomsday scenarios are religiously based. will also emerge a European confederation—the old Roman Indeed, we today find hundreds of millions of people who Empire, now the European Common Market—headed by an interpret the world primarily through a biblical lens and see Antichrist preaching a new religion. These years will witness their own end-of-the-word scenarios. Much of this is based on the greatest devastation that mankind has ever seen. The val­ the Book of Daniel of the Old Testament and the Book of leys will flow with blood, cities will be destroyed by torrents of Revelation of the New Testament. But their vision is far more fire and brimstone—this, it is said, represents a thermonuclear terrifying than anything that mere secularists can dream up. war, World War III, the most awesome holocaust of all time. because it is all part of God's plan of punishment for sinners. At that moment. Jesus Christ will return to rescue in rapture And it is imminent. Moreover, only a small portion of suffer­ those true believers who accept the word. Christ will reign for ing humanity will be saved from it. Several Protestant sects, a thousand years and eventually establish his final kingdom such as the Jehovah's Witnesses, have held apocalyptic theolo­ throughout all eternity. gies in the past. In a series of four new books that have suddenly swept to Today the message that fundamentalist prophets are the top of the bestseller list, millions of people disappear from preaching is one of a millennial Armageddon. They are truly the face of the earth. The have been snatched from homes and convinced that we are living in "the last days," and they view offices, automobiles and airplanes—all saved by the rapture, earthquake tremors, wars, and rumors of war as signs of the which has taken God-fearing Christians to heaven, while the impending apocalyptic disaster. The last great battle of rest of humanity is left behind to suffer the terrible trials and Armageddon is approaching, we are warned. Indeed, this gen­ tribulations inflicted by the Antichrist. This is the plot of the eration, many of them insist, is the last generation, and this fictionalized apocalyptic series, Left Behind, by fundamentalist was all foretold in the Old and New Testaments. Jesus said: "I preacher Tim LaHaye and Jerry B. Jenkins.-' LaHaye omi­ tell you this: the present generation will live to see it all" (Matt. nously forewarns on his Web site that the year 2000 computer 24:34-35, New English Bible). And "Verily I say unto you, problem could trigger a "financial meltdown" as prelude to the This generation shall not pass, till all these things be fulfilled" world's destruction. (Matt. 24:34, King James Version). Many of Jesus' disciples Fears of the "last days," it has been claimed, appeared at the believed thai his admonitions applied to his own generation in end of the first millennium. Charles Mackay, in his 1841 the first century A.I). That prophecy did not come true for the work, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of early Christians, and almost 2000 years have since passed. We Crowds, depicted the epidemic terror that seized Christendom were told by Pat Robertson. Hal Lindsey, David Koresh, in the middle of the tenth century, as people expected the last Harold Camping. Edgar C. Whisenant, and other evangelists judgment.' Some said that Mackay's account was pure hyper­ that the generation referred to is ours. Even President Ronald bole. In any case, the first millennium passed without the Reagan was quoted as saying in the 1980s: "You know, I turn destruction of the world! Why should it occur in the second? back to your ancient prophets in the Old Testament and the Many people in history have believed in the end-of-the- signs foretelling Armageddon, and I find myself considering if world scenario based on the Bible, and they often thought that we're the generation that is going to see that come about. I it applied to their own age. A graphic illustration is the case of don't know if you noted any of those prophecies lately but. William Miller and his followers in the nineteenth century. believe me, they certainly describe the times we're going Miller, a fundamentalist Protestant preacher from Vermont through." (and precursor of the Seventh-Day Adventists) studied the In his book. The Late Great Planet Earth (a bestseller in the Bible carefully. He was convinced that ihe world would come U.S. in past decades), Hal Lindsey claimed that Armageddon to an end in his own day, sometime between March 21,1843, is just around the corner. According to biblical prophecies. and March 21, 1844. He based his analysis upon a specific

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/FtBtuary 1999 23 biblical passage that draws on the Book of Daniel. "And he bizarre annihilation agenda of Japan's "Aum Shinrikyo" cult, said unto me, Unto two thousand and three hundred days; and the many New Age cults proliferating in Russia today. then shall the sanctuary be cleansed" (Dan. 8:14, King James There are also numerous astrological predictions of disaster Version). Miller interpreted "days" as "years." Since the due to planetary alignments, such as the so-called "Jupiter prophecy was dated 457 B.C., the end of the world, he said, Effect." And psychics are now having a field day in their would occur two thousand and three hundred years later, in Armageddon prophecies. How many times are those who 1843. The Millerite groups—which numbered in the thou­ claim to have precognitive or psychic powers correct in their sands—sold their possessions and awaited the final day. But, as prophecies? The track record, I submit, is extremely weak. We we know, nothing happened. When 1843 passed he extended can and do make predictions about the future based on evi­ his prediction by another year, but again nothing happened. dence and rational inference, and often these predictions are This forecasting of the end of times has been repeated many reliable. But those made on the basis of mystic power, psychic times throughout history. The same thing is most likely true, intuition, or astrological forecasts prove to be no more accu­ in my judgment, of present-day predictions or Armageddon. rate than anyone's wild guesses. Those who make such claims Other religious traditions have prophetic-apocalyptic often fit a prophecy or vision to present circumstances after ihc themes: Buddhism awaits Lord Matrieya, Islam the Madhi; fact, or they make the prophecy so general that it can be Orthodox Judaism the Messiah; and Native American Indians related to virtually any case. This has been done with the pre­ wish to return to nature as it was before the European inva­ dictions of the ever-popular Nostradamus, the sixteenth-cen­ sion. For those who use the Mayan calendar, the world will tury seer. His quatrains have been read by every generation, end in 2012. including the present one, and his prophecies have been It is clear that a state of belief may help create a self-fulfill­ adapted to all sorts of circumstances in every time period. ing or suicidal prophecy. A widely held belief can have pro­ Often what is taken as prophetic is only due to coincidence; found political and social ramifications, especially if it is held events are not preordained and predetermined as the prophetic by people in positions of power. Apocalyptic thinking may tradition maintains. The future depends upon our own actions mean that those who are under its sway will do little or noth­ in the given situations. There are no special secret paths to ing to prevent overwhelming disaster, fatalistically awaiting knowledge of the future. what is inevitable; or they may so act as to allow it to come true, believing that they are fulfilling divine prophecy. The problem In conclusion, we live in a highly developed scientific and with faith in prophecy is that it can take control of the future technological society. We face awesome problems. If we arc to out of the hands of those best able to shape it. We are suppos­ solve them, we must draw upon the best critical intelligence edly impotent and helpless creatures awaiting our fate, unable available. We need to use our rational powers, not abandon or unwilling to exert any influence to rectify or modify the them. In free societies anyone is entitled to his convictions. Yet course of events. The fixation on apocalypse grows out of fear democracy presupposes an educated citizenry. When apocalyp­ of the unknown, and it is fed by hope for redemption. Often tic faith is intermingled with ideology, it can have deleterious when the prophecy is falsified, the convictions of the believing social, political, and military consequences. It is at this point group arc intensified and the prophecies extrapolated.' that all those committed to skeptical inquiry have an obligation In democratic societies we need an informed public capable to carefully examine those claims being made about our collec­ of wise decisions and without fantasy. We know of the dangers tive future, whether they are based upon so-called revealed that distorted, apocalyptic, survivalist, conspiratorial, or pseu- prophecies or not, and to submit them to empirical criticism. doscientific ideologies have had on societies. There is thus a compelling need for critical examination of the prophecies of doom—whether secular, religious, or New Age— for these have serious implications for the world at large. And New Age Doomsday Prophecies that is one of the key tasks of this World Skeptics Congress. A third kind of doomsday prophecy is that offered by New Age cults. The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims Notes of the Paranormal and the world skeptics movement have 1. For fuller discussion of this, sec Richard Abanes. End-Time Viuom The examined a great number of the paranormal claims that are Road lo Armageddon? (New York and London: Four Worlds Eight Windows. proliferating today from psychics, fortune tellers, seers, and 1998). gurus of various kinds. These include the failed predictions of 2. The lour books, all by Tim LaHaye and Jerry B. Jenkins, arc Left Behind (1995). Tribulation Force (1996). Nicolae (1997). and Soul Harvest (1998), all Edgar Cayce, "the Sleeping Prophet," who warned of a massive published by Tyndak House Publishers. shifting of the poles in the years 2000-2001. They involve a 3- Charles Mackay. Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of number of suicide cults, such as the UFO-related "Heaven's Crowds (New York: GOTO, 1980). 4. Sec Leon Festinger. Henry W Riecken. and Stanley Schachter. W/ien Gate" and the French-Swiss-Canadian space-age religion, Prophecy Fails: A Social and Psychological Study of Modern Groups That Predict "The Order of the Solar Temple." They also include the the Destruction of the World (New York: Harper and Row, 1956). O

24 January/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER The Bible and the Prophets of Doom

GERALD A. LARUE

he coming of the twenty-first century can be given different meanings.1 For our purpose, it is enough to Tnote that some very vocal Christian groups, basing their claims on notions derived from interpretations of doomsday threats in New Testament, are announcing the proximity of end-time and arguing that the world as we know it will shortly be destroyed by supernatural powers. Subsequently, a new creation will usher in eternal bliss, and happiness for true believers and eternal damnation in hell for the rest of us (Rev. 21:8). The Christian clerics who ultimately selected and arranged the New Testament writings chose the Gospel of Matthew as the opening document, thereby introducing the

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER lanuary/Ftbtuary 1999 25 violent end-of-the-age concept with a proclamation by John those saved by the messianic hero, Noah. The flood myth pro­ the Baptizer: "O you generation of vipers. Who has warned you vided temple priests with a teaching tool warning Jews that to lice from the wrath to come?" (Matt. 3:7). From that point deviation Irom their particular "revealed" religion could pro­ on, eschatological themes-' are interlaced throughout subse­ voke the deity and bring devastating judgment on the nation. quent writings, reaching a climax in the words of the visionary Obedience, on the other hand, produced blessing and hope for who wrote the Apocalypse, the book of the Revelation, where a promised "day of Yahweh" when their god would deliver millennium (thousand year) notions are introduced. them from oppression and from disharmony within the nation. However, during the eighth and seventh centuries Then I saw an angel coming down from heaven, holding in his hand the key of the bottomless pit and a great chain. And he BCE, just at the time when the nation appeared to be most seized the dragon, that ancient serpent, who is the Devil and prosperous, Hebrew prophets reinterpreted the popular per­ Satan, and hound him for a thousand years, and threw him in ception of the "day of Yahweh" and gave it a doomsday the pit, and shut it and sealed it over him, that lie should deceive import. Their condemnations, which grew out of social con­ the nations no more, till the thousand years were ended. science concerned with the violation of basic human ethics, And when the thousand years are ended, Satan will he loosed transformed the "day of Yahweh" idea into a threat of divine from his prison and will come out to deceive the nations . . . judgment and national disaster which was near at hand (Isaiah (Rev. 20:1-5) 2:11; 13; Zephaniah 1:14ff; Amos 5:18; Hosea 9:5rT; etc.). In the sixth century BCE Judah was conquered by Sacralizing Time Nebuchadrezzar, and leading Jews were taken as captives to Babylon (597, 586 BCE). Later, during that same century, For many modern sciences, such as geology or astronomy, time after the Jews were freed by Cyrus of Persia and permitted to is endless and measured in millions and billions of years. For return to Palestine (538 BCE), the Persian religion of this reason the notion of precise beginnings and endings tends Zarathustra or Zoroaster began to affect the Jewish belief sys­ to remain elusive or merely descriptive. Ancient Near Eastern tem. Persian teachings about a final end time were incorpo­ religions, on the other hand, attributed sacred symbolic signif­ rated into Jewish theology to develop a new eschatological way icance to certain numbers." In biblical thought, time is given a of thinking which had, at its heart, the issue of divine justice. precise and determined beginning and end. "Beginning time," as presented in biblical temple mythol­ ogy, employed cosmological notions widespread in the Near The Principle of Divine Justice East several thousand years ago. For example, it was widely If the god is a good god, a righteous deity in control of the believed that in the beginning there was only the eternal (time­ world, why do evil people seem to get away with their willful less) primeval sea. Biblical time began when, in the midst of violations of the divine will, while good people suffer? Why the all-encompassing waters, the heavens and earth and all doesn't the deity do something? Or does he? within them were brought into existence by divine decree in Hebrew temple religion portrayed Yahweh as a god of the six days (Genesis 1).' The created world was protected from living, not the dead. The dead were past history, existing in a inundation from the waters above by the disc of the heavens or shadowy underworld (Sheol) where they no longer had any the firmament (in Hebrew ragia, a term suggesting something contact with their god (Isaiah 38:18; Psalm 88:5-6; 115:17, beaten out of metal), and from flooding from below by the etc.). The god of the living was concerned with justice during earth. The Genesis 1 format was not an original Hebrew- this life, not after death. Of course it was apparent that this Jewish construct but was borrowed from the Babylonian cre­ theory simply didn't work out in real life. Some individuals ation myth (enuma dish)? who flaunted temple law were happy, healthy and successful, Another Hebrew temple myth, also borrowed from ancient while obedient observers suffered and were miserable. Sumer and Babylon, described an eschatological or end-time To deal with this apparent injustice, Hebrew culture placed event that came through a universal flood.'' Angered by human supreme importance on the group (the family, the clan, the wickedness, the Hebrew-Jewish god, Yahwch, opened the win­ tribe, the nation) rather than on the individual. The group, dows in the firmament and unplugged channels to the waters conceived of as a psychic unity with an identity of its own, has beneath the earth enabling the primeval sea to pour into the been described as a "corporate personality."7 Individual iden­ hemisphere of earth and sky and destroy all life forms except tity, which came from membership in the group, placed par­ ticular responsibilities on each member inasmuch as individual Gerald A. Larue is Emeritus Professor of Biblical History and acts were evaluated in terms of their impact on the life and Archaeology and adjunct professor of gerontology. University of well-being of the group. Thus divine punishment of a wicked Southern California, Los Angeles. This article is adapted from his person who lived a full and happy life could, in the words of presentation at the Second World Skeptics Congress in Heidelberg, Exodus 20:5, be passed on to descendants up to the third and Germany, July 23-26, 1998. fourth generations: "I, Yahweh, your god, am a jealous god,

26 Januaty/febtuary 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER visiting the iniquity of the fathers upon the children to the Both go to the same place; all are from the dust and all return to dust. Who knows if the life force of a man ascends upward third and fourth generations of those that hate me." On the and the life force of beasts descends to the underworld? basis of this belief, the prophets (Amos, Hosea, Isaiah and (3:19-20)... Micah) could warn that the social injustice practiced by the As for the dead, they know nothing at all. and they experience wealthy and powerful would doom the nation. Despite the no rewards and (ultimately) they are not remembered. Their fact that this legal prescription was incorporated in the Ten love, their hate, their passions have perished completely, and Commandments and attributed to [he revelation given by never more do they have any part in what happens beneath the Moses, the time came when it was challenged. sun (9:5-6). The challenges developed ovei the period of several cen­ Qoheleth's philosophical response to this enigma was: turies. The destruction of the northern kingdom of Israel by the Assyrians in 721 was interpreted as an act of divine judg­ I know that there is nothing better for men than to be happy ment on that nation and as fulfillment ol the warnings ol the and enjoy themselves so long as they live, and that when men cat and drink and find enjoyment in their work, this is a gift eighth century prophets. Sometime during the seventh cen­ from God (3:12-13). tury, a scroll attributed to Moses but actually composed dur­ ing the seventh century was. apparently, "discovered" in the Qoheleth's realistic, humanistic attitude towards life and temple archives. This scroll, which we now believe to be living did not satisfy some Jews. They resolved the problem of Deuteronomy,' contained a new revelation stating that each divine justice and individual responsibility by embracing con­ person was to receive divine punishment for his own iniquities cepts borrowed from Persian Zoroastrianism. (Deuteronomy 24:1"). When Judah fell to Babylon in the sixth century, the Ancient Near Eastern religions attributed sacred prophets Jeremiah and Ezekiel also denied the validity of the corporate per­ symbolic significance to certain numbers. sonality concept of justice and In biblical thought, time is given a precise and announced that each individual would suffer for his own sins (Jeremiah 31:29; determined beginning and end. Ezekiel 18).'' However, just as it had become obvious to any rational observer that the exercise of The religion of Zoroaster or Zarathustra, which was duaiis- divine justice by punishing innocent descendants for the evil tic, became central in Persia during the sixth to fourth cen­ behavior of ancestors was unfair and unreal, it became equally turies BCE when Persia dominated the Near Eastern world. apparent that the theory of divine punishment of guilty indi­ Ahura Mazda (known also as Ormazd or Hormuzd), the god viduals simply did not really happen in real life. of light and the all-knowing creator and sustainer of the world Another reaction, rejecting standard theologies of divine of good, was pitted against Angra Mainyu (known also as justice and underscoring the futility of humans trying to Ahriman), the epitome of darkness and evil. Zoroaster attrib­ understand the ways of Yahweh, appeared in dramatic form in uted ethical values to these two supernatural opposing forces the post-exilic book of Job. Job, a model devout Jew, suffered so that right and wrong tended to have black and white char­ horrendously because of a wager between the god Yahweh and acteristics. By the choices they made, humans, endowed with his son Satan. Job's theological peers argued that his disasters free choice, became involved in the cosmic struggle of light were divine punishments either for something he (who had versus darkness and the truth versus the lie. Individuals aligned been adjudged righteous by both Yahweh and Satan"') must themselves either with Angra Mainyu and the powers of dark­ have done," or because of guilt incurred by his family.IJ Job ness or with the Ahura Mazda and the forces of light. rejected both arguments and called for justice. Although the Death marked the time for judgment of the individual's life deity appeared on stage in the play. Job received no explana­ choices. The soul of the dead person arrived at the Bridge of tion of why he, an innocent man. suffered divine punishment. Separation where the souls of the righteous were sent to par­ The theme of ignorance of the ways of god was echoed in adise; the souls of the wicked went to hell. Beyond these Ecclesiastes, a third century BCE writing that may have been immediate individual rewards and punishments was an escha- mllucnced both by Job and by Greek thought. Qoheleth, the tological or end-time event. teacher, advised his students: Zoroastrian mythology depicted time in linear fashion. There was creation time and end-time. Creation time covered . . . although God lias put in man's mind the quest for that which is hidden, man cannot comprehend what God has been four periods of 3,000 years each. The first period marked the doing from start to finish (3:1 1) . . . golden years under the rule of Ahura Mazda. The second 3,000 years were a time of warfare between good and evil. The next 'Hie fate of men and the fate of animals is the same as one dies so does the other die for all have the same breath of life. Man 3.000 years, the beginning of end-time, was marked by the has no superiority over the animal, both arc void of meaning. ' appearance of Zoroaster, who brought new strength into the

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 1999 27 cosmic battle. Each of the final 3,000 years was ruled by a When Jews resisted Antiochus' hellenization program, the posthumous son of Zoroaster. At the termination of the 12,000 Syrian ruler attacked Jerusalem and desecrated the Jewish tem­ years, when the creation process was completed, Zoroaster's ple altar by using it to burn pig's flesh as an offering to Zeus. third son, Saoshyant, would purify the world, remove all traces Jews who abandoned any hope in their ability to alleviate their of evil and regenerate the world in purity. The physical bodies situation took reluge in the apocalyptic teaching that the end of the dead would be resurrected and now, united with their of the age was at hand and that their god would rescue them. souls from both paradise and hell, would pass through a river Their belief enabled them to tolerate current conditions and ot molten metal—with the righteous moving as if they were in the potential terrors that lay ahead. Apocalyptic writings, like- a warm bath and the wicked experiencing unimaginable tor­ Daniel, assured them that the evil days would pass because ture. Ultimately all would be purified and enter the kingdom they were in an alliance with the future. of the righteous to live forever in an ageless paradise. The second century BCE author of Daniel set the scene of In Zoroastrian theology humans had no real involvement his writing in the time of the sixth century Babylonian exile in the final outcome. History was fixed. During the 12,000- and portrayed Daniel and other Jewish heroes as models of year period Ahura Mazda and Ahriman struggled for power resistance. When arrested and sentenced to suffer and die for and for human souls, but the ultimate outcome was predeter­ their faith, Daniel and his friends were miraculously preserved mined: Ahriman would lose; Ahura Mazda would triumph. by the deity. Of course, the second century BCE reality was Even as Zoroastrian teachings were influencing Jewish reli­ quite different from the fiction of Daniel. Descriptions of per­ gion, old mythological beliefs of the dead existing in shadowy secution in 1 and II Maccabees make it clear that there were no Sheol apart from Yahweh were maintained by the Sadducees, miraculous interventions.1'' Orthodox Jews underwent excruci­ the temple aristocracy. For the Pharisees, the Essenes, and the ating torture and died horribly for their faith, all the while Jesus sect, the new mythology made sense out of human suffer­ waiting for supernatural deliverance. Freedom ultimately came ing by transforming death into a door to an afterlife where- through the efforts of those who, having rejected the promise divine justice would be administered. Whether or not the of divine intervention, roused Jews to fight lor their freedom. 1,000-year format or millennialism derived directly from Following the pattern established by Zoroastrian religion, Zoroastrian theology cannot be determined, but it is at this the Book of Daniel divided history into a series of "ages" point that we move into the field of the apocalyptic (a term that beginning with the Babylonian period as the golden age. But means "unhidden" or "revealed"). Apocalyptic literature pur­ human history was in decline and after passing through the sil­ ported to reveal signs associated with a predetermined final end- ver (Median), bronze (Persian), iron (Alexandrian) periods, timc-signs that could be interpreted by the initiated and that humans had arrived at the final stage of corruption—the inter­ would make clear the ultimate significance of life and living. mingled bronze-clay (Seleucid) period. Now the god of history Just as the biblical myth of beginning time was borrowed would act! Now the end would come! History would cease! from Mesopotamia, so the biblical myth of end-time was bor­ God would intervene! Pious Jews would be rewarded and all rowed from Persia. others—the wicked—would be punished. And should one die before that day of judgment, resurrection would raise up the dead for rewards or punishment. To substantiate this interpre­ The Failures of Predictions by tation of history, the author introduced the angel Gabriel Apocalyptic Doomsayers of the Past (Dan. 8:16F; 9:21 ff) who transformed the prophet Jeremiah's Apocalyptic literature has special appeal when society is per­ prediction that the sixth century Babylonian exile would last meated with social pressures, intellectual conflicts, and frustra­ seventy years (Jer. 25:11-12; 29:10) into seventy weeks of tion. By abandoning a humanistic approach to life, end-time years or 490 years which would enable the writer to suggest writings and beliefs express loss of faith in the potential of that divine intervention would occur during the second cen­ humans to solve their own problems. Blind belief in supernat­ tury BCE. Daniel's rough outline of historical periods (which ural powers that are prepared to rescue the faithful tends to contained some errors) was apparently not challenged. But the offer comfort and hope to lonely, insecure individuals lost in author's attempts to predict the future, promising that final the maze of life. They need only believe and conform. There is deliverance would come through the intervention of Michael, no need to attempt to resolve social issues because divine inter­ the patron angel of the Jews, were absolutely wrong (1 l:40fF). vention will result in the triumph of good over evil. The fullest Daniel, a product of the second century BCE, was designed expression of apocalyptic literature in the Jewish scriptures is to appear to have been written during the sixth century BCE. the book of Daniel, which was written about 167 BCE when If a contemporary Jewish skeptic had asked "Why have we not Jews were under oppression. seen this book before?" the answer was provided in the divine The Greek empire established by Alexander the Great in revelation given to Daniel that "the words arc shut up and the fourth century was subdivided by his generals. Palestine sealed until the end of time" (12:9). The fact that the book was fell under the jurisdiction of the Seleucid ruler, Antiochus IV. now in the hands of Jewish readers underscored the belief that

28 Unuary/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER they were living in the last days, "the end of time." description of the suffering servant (Isaiah 52:13-53:12). Despite the fact that the author of Daniel was wrong and During the Persian period, Jewish Temple priests developed the mythic deliverance day did not come, Daniel was incorpo­ their own scapegoat ritual in which, on the Day of Atonement, rated in the Jewish canon of scripture. The apocalyptic myth a goat carried the sins of the nation into the wilderness has been given new life over and over again through continual (Leviticus 16:20-22). Later, Christians employed the image of reinterpretations ol "end-time." the sin-bearer and by universalizing Isaiah's words transformed Jews living at Qumran, who were probably Essenes, were Jesus into the ultimate sin-bearer for the world (Matt. 8:17; among those who accepted the dualistic worldview. The god Acts 8:32-33; 1 Peter 2:24-25). After the Roman destruction who created the world also created two antagonistic spirits— of the temple in 70 CE terminated all Jewish sacrificial acts, the spirit of light and the spirit of darkness—each with hierar­ Christian writers could claim that Jesus' death constituted the chies of angelic or demonic powers struggling for human alle­ final sacrifice (Heb. 9:11-12, 26-28; 13:12). In still another giance. Each person was predestined to affiliate with one or interpretation, Christian writers tied Jesus' death to the Jewish other group, and even those recognized as "Children of Light" Passover rite and Jesus became the sacrificial paschal lamb (I were not immune from temptation to sin. In the final battle Cor. 5:7). The theology that developed out of these exposi­ between the Children of Light (with whom the Essenes iden­ tions implied that one need only accept the reality of Jesus' tified) and the Sons of Darkness, the powers of light would sacrificial death to achieve redemption and entry into the com­ win and final judgement would come. ing kingdom—no other sacrifices were needed.

But Christian mythology went further. Employing an idea borrowed from Persian thought, the Christian myth pro­ New Testament Apocalyptic claimed that the end-time promise of the resurrection of the New Testament literature was produced between thirty and 100 dead had already begun with Jesus who had not only defeated years after Jesus' death (which is often placed between 29 and 33 death and risen from the grave but had physically ascended CE). Paul's letters, composed some thirty years after the cruci­ into heaven to be with God. This heavenly ascension was cred­ fixion, are the earliest New Testament writings and they mark ible at the time because of commonly accepted concept of a the beginning of the transformation of the Jewish Jesus sect into three-story world. From heaven, Jesus would return to resur­ a mystery religion competing with the mystery cults of the first rect the dead and to judge both the living and the dead. century. Romans destroyed Jerusalem in 70 CE and the Jesus When? The watchword was "soon" (Rev. 1:1; 22:20). legends we find in the Gospels were com­ posed after Jerusalem fell and the temple was destroyed—between 75 and 95 CE. Apocalyptic literature has special appeal when The Apocalypse or Book of Revelation is society is permeated with social pressures, dated around the close of the first century when the Christian sect experienced some intellectual conflicts, and frustration. persecution by Roman authorities. Paul and the unknown gospel writers accepted Jewish Although apocalyptic mythology is found throughout the apocalyptic mythology but added new dimensions.11 The New Testament and is portrayed in its most organized form in long-awaited messiah had come in the presence of Jesus, been Revelation, the gospel writers gave authority for the idea to recognized, been brought to trial before a Roman court, and John the Baptizer, who introduced the theme in the gospels, condemned as a common criminal to sufTcr a savage death by and to Jesus, who explained signs of the end of the age and crucifixion. To explain how the annihilation of their hero fig­ promised his disciples that the new kingdom of God would be ure could be recognized as part of a divine plan for human ushered in during their lifetime (Matt. 16:28). Jesus was redemption, Christian writers reached back to a Babylonian wrong. Indeed, during the second century CE, some ritual and drew on Jewish sacrificial rites. Christians asked, "Where is the promise of his coming? For During their sixth century BCE exile in Babylon, Jewish ever since the fathers fell asleep, all things have continued as priests witnessed the Akitu festival, the annual Babylonian they were from the beginning of creation." (2 Peter 3:4). All springtime ritual inauguration of ihc new year which included we can say is that from that time on, every prophetic pro­ a national purging rite."' Babylonian priests transferred the sins nouncement of the ending of time has been wrong." of the city and the nation onto a human scapegoat who, bear­ ing the sins of the city and nation, was dispatched into the The Basic Issues in Apocalyptic Myth wilderness beyond the city. Deutero-Isaiah, whose writings have been attached to the prophecies of the eighth century 1. Apocalyptic writings, which are anonymous and portray Isaiah-of-Jerusalem, employed the imagery of the sin-bearer humans as helpless pawns in historical development, are (which he probably witnessed as an exile in Babylon) in his unlike the warnings of the prophets. The prophets wrote in

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Januaiy/february 1999 29 their own names, and their doom-sayings always included Whether the papal visits to the various continents and a conditional "if" referring to the potential (or human countries is related to the call in the controversial ending of change and development. Mark's gospel to preach the gospel throughout the world can­ 2. Apocalyptic myth assumes that supernatural powers—a not be known. Certainly American fundamentalists, including god or gods—are directly involved in human affairs eter­ the Trinity Broadcasting Network, are seeking to encompass nally evaluating and judging human behavior patterns. the globe with their teachings through many television stations Failure to conform to divinely ordained edicts results in and the use of satellites. punishment by suffering or annihilation. In fundamentalist churches, modern prophets of doom are 3. The myth reflects dissatisfaction with the present age and not concerned with the theme of justice manifested in apoca­ looks to future time when the present state will be changed by lyptic literature; they focus on personal salvation and the inter­ a cataclysmic divine intervention marking the end of time. pretation of biblical symbols and numbers marking the prox­ 4. The concept of the future that follows the destruction of imity of end-time. It is important to note that many who write the present world is that of a paradise regained—where and preach about the end-time have become millionaires. They there is harmony between humans and nature. betray no anticipation of losing the capital they have amassed; 5. The myth promises eternal rewards for the faithful or for their focus is on increasing their wealth as the millennium the chosen. approaches. For example, as far back as 1981, the income of 6. Humans cannot of themselves construct a world of peace doomsayer Hal Lindsey was estimated at $180,000 per month and understanding; only by supernatural means can such a from royalties on his book Countdown plus another $150,000 state come into being. per month income from the sale of tape cassettes." His The Late Great Planet Earth sold more than 20 million copies. He- is a multimillionaire and he is still selling books that simply Interpreting the Signs Today: reinterpret his earlier errors in predicting end-time. What Are the Necessary Signs? Today's doomsaycrs interpret almost any news item as a por­ The Roman Catholic Church, the Eastern Orthodox tent. For example, the recent El Nino weather patterns are sym­ Churches, and the standard brand Protestant Churches have, bolic of end time weather disruptions; the World Health so far, avoided any spectacular claims for the new millennium. Organization's concern for potential plagues becomes a fulfill­ In November 1994, Pope John Paul II issued an Apostolic ment of apocalyptic prophecy. Indeed doomsayers' interpreta­ Letter titled "Tenia Millennia Adveniente" or "As The Third tions are often as irrational as the weird imagery in Revelations: Millennium Draws Nigh" in which he set forth yearly plans leading up to the celebration of third millennium. In item 1. For the doomsayers, Israel is God's timepiece. The rebirth of forty-six, he commented: Israel as a nation, which occurred in May 1948, and the Christians are called to prepare for the Great Jubilee of the Jewish assumption of control of Jerusalem, which occurred beginning of the third millennium by renewing their hope in in June 1967, are accepted as a fulfillment of biblical the definitive coming of the kingdom of God. preparing for it prophecy." Biblical passages are lifted out of context and in daily in their hearts, in the Christian community to which a cut-and-paste procedure are made to say what the evange­ they belong, in their particular social context and in world his­ list wants them to say. Little attention is given to ptovenance. tory itself. Prophetic statements composed some 2,000 years ago are- In his next comments, the Pope sounds like a humanist: interpreted as referring to our present era. Evangelists focus on present problems in the Middle East suggesting that they There is also a need for a better understanding ol the signs of hope present in the last part of this century, even though they must be the primary focus of the international community. often remain hidden from our eyes. In society in general, such They argue that if Israel appears to be in danger and the signs of hope include: scientific, technological, and especially United States pulls away from Israel, the U.S.A. is sealing its medical progress in the service of human life, a greater aware­ doom. (Of course, the existence of the Americas and the ness of our responsibility for the environment, efforts to United States were unknown to the ancient writers but, we restore peace and justice wherever they have been violated, a desire for reconciliation and solidarity among different peo­ are told, their coming into existence was known to God!) ples, particularly in the complex relationship between the 2. The growth of the European Common Market of twelve North and the South of the world. nations is, by continuing convoluted interpretations, identi­ fied with the ten powers mentioned in Revelation chapter 17. He then returned to the role of the church: 3. The development of rapid global communication and In the church they include a greater attention to the voice of transportation is said to be an essential preparation for a the Spirit through the acceptance of charisms and the promo­ one-world government under the rule of the antichrist. The tion of the laity, a deeper commitment to the cause of Christian unity, and the increased interest in dialogue with development of a common currency in Europe is seen as other religions and with contemporary culture. the beginning of the development of an international cur-

30 January/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER rency that will enable the antichrist to control the eco­ some possible dates for end-time as the new millennium nomic scene. Doomsayers warn us that one will not be able approaches. to purchase anything without the number 666 prefixed to one's personal identity number. The Antichrist is not yet 1. On January 1, 2000. As some Christian groups look to that identified but is pictured as one who could rise to power date for the introduction of the end of the age, many secu­ very suddenly. The Reverend Tim LaHaye used the mete­ larists are preparing to welcome the new millennium with oric rise of Ross Perot in American politics as a symbol of New Year parties. the public's desire for a "dynamic, Superman-iypc" leader 2. On December 25, 2000—coinciding with the traditional who could come into power quickly. observance of Jesus' birth. Of course no one knows when Jesus was born. The December 25 date, which had been 4. The threat of nuclear annihilation points to the potential celebrated in Rome as the birth date of the god Mithra was, for global destruction marking end-time. The doomsayers during the time of Constantine, taken by the Christians as argue that Russia had stockpiled more armaments than any the birth date of Jesus. In the eastern Orthodox tradition, other nation. These weapons, which still exist in abun­ January 6 was accepted as Jesus' birth date. dance, are guarded by an underpaid military who can be bribed to steal the weapons and make them available to 3. On May 5, 2000, when planetary alignments will exercise renegade nations like Libya. a gravitational pull on the ocean waves. 4. Choose any date, use some imagination, and you can find 5- The use of biblical numerology and imagery and the ways arguments to support it. in which doomsayers redefine these confusing symbols in Revelation. For example, It is important to note that many who write and • Three of the four horsemen of Rev. preach about the end-time have become millionaires. 6 appear in every century—war, famine and pestilence—the first horse, the white horse Conclusion representing the Messiah, is yet to come. • The place of the final battle "Armageddon," often inter­ The Christian Bible is a product of human beings that preserves preted as referring to the ancient fortress city of writings produced by priests of the Jewish temple and finally Megiddo, may simply be a synonym for Jerusalem. In selected by the Council of Jamnia during the first and second any case, the locales in the vision are limited to the centuries CE (the Old Testament) combined with writings by ancient Near Eastern world. Only by imaginative inter­ early Christian believers that were selected after long debates to pretations can the modern world be included. constitute the New Testament. Predictions of the end of time • The beast whose number is 666 has not been identified and the coming of a divine new age have always been wrong: recently. In the past, individuals ranging from Hitler to • They were wrong for the writer of Daniel. the Pope were named. Some wag pointed out that the • They were wrong for the Essenes. three names ol President Ronald Wilson Reagan—each • They were wrong for Jesus. composed of six letters—could be interpreted as 666. • They were wrong for Paul. • Recently, Hal Lindsey has argued that the description of • They were wrong for all of the early Christians. weird creatures in Revelation 9 demonstrate that the • They were wrong for Bible interpreters in the Middle- visionary John in Revelations, actually "saw" the military Ages and during the Renaissance. weaponry of today but used first century figures of • They were wrong for the prophetic voices raised at vari­ speech to describe what he could not understand. For ous limes through this twentieth century. example, the giant locusts with scorpion stingers in their tails were first century efforts to describe modern mili­ And, if I may enter the field of prophecy, they will prove to tary helicopters. be wrong as we enter the new millennium. Notes When Will the Apocalyptic Vision Be Fulfilled? 1. For science, a millennium means only thai in (he cosmic timetable the Efforts to determine end-time have had a long history. In the earth has circled the sun 1.000 times. Presumably this pattern will continue second century CE Ignatius Polycarp, Justin, and Irenacus without intctruption. The only prediction of doom for Earth from external forces lies in the potential impact of a huge asteroid. For the secular world, the believed they were living in the last days. During the third cen­ new millennium concern is with the confusion that may result in business and tury Hippolytus calculated that Jesus would return five hun­ worldwide communication because of the so-called Y2K bug that threatens to dred years after his birth. The speculations continue. In crash those computer systems that use only two digits to record the year in a date However, these predictions of doom may well be short-lived because October 1997, a group of Korean Christians waited pointlessly experts will solve the problems and life will go on as before. for Jesus to appear. Today there arc those who arc proposing 2. The term "apocalyptic" means "un-hidden" or "tevcalcd." "Eschatology"

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/februar, 1999 31 deals with doctrines pertaining to end-time or the "Eschaton." 11. Job 4:7, 11:6, 15:7.22:5 3. For a discussion of cultic interpretation of numbers see Pope. Marvin 12. Job 8:4 H. 1962. Number, Numbering, Numbers. The Interpreter's Dictionary of the 13. The Hebrew word hebel, translated as "vanity" in the King James Bible, New York: Abingdon Press. Vol. 3 (K-R): 561-567. Bible, refers to that which is as unsubstantial as a breath of air so that one seeks 4. A more accurate translation of Genesis 1:1-2 than that found in the its meaning "in vain"—in other words human solutions are meaningless. King James Version of the Bible reads: "When Elohim began to create the 14. 1 and II Maccabees, which are included in the Roman Catholic and heavens and the earth, the earth was unformed and without shape, with dark­ Eastern Orthodox Bibles, arc not accepted in the Jewish canon and arc placed ness covering the sea and the wind of Elohim moving over the waters." in the Apocrypha by Protestants. 5. Heidel, Alexander. 1951. The Babylonian Genesis. Chicago: University 15. Indeed, Paul combined the prophetic language of the "Day of of Chicago Press. 82-140. Yahweh" with the developing Christian apocalyptic theology (cf. 1 Thcss. 5:2; 6. Sanders, N. K., 1972. The Epic of Gitgamesh. Middlesex, England: Math. 24:42). Penguin Books; Larue, Gerald A.. 1988. Ancient Myth and Modem Life. Long 16. For a detailed discussion sec Pallis, S. A. 1926. The Babylonian Akitu Beach, CA.: Ccntcrlinc Press. Ch. 4.; Kramer. S.N., The deluge, in Pritchard, Festival Copenhagen: Andr. Fred. Host & Son; Gaster, T H. 1959. The New James B., 1950. Ancient Near Eastern Texts Relating to the Old Testament. Golden Bough. New York: Criterion Books: 555, note 456. (henceforth ANET). Ptinceton: Princeton University Press: 42-44; Speiser, E. 17. For example, Melehior Hoffman, a follower ol Martin Luther, A., The Epic of Gilgamesh. ANET: 72-99. announced that final judgment would come in 1533. In more modern times 7. Robinson, H. Wheeler. 1936. The Hebrew Conception of Corporate the Jehovah's Witnesses thought the wotld would end in 1918; recently, a Personality. Werden und Wesen des Allen Testaments, Hempel. J. (cd.), B.Z.A.W. Korean group figured October 1997. For further references see Larue, Gerald LXVI. 49ff. See also Pedersen. J. 1926. Israel: Its Life and Culture. A., 1988. Ancient Myth and Modern Life. Long Beach: Ccntcrlinc Press, p. 150i. Copenhagen: Povl Branner. Vols. I—II; Johnson, Aubrey R. 1964. The One and 18. Chandler, Russell. 1981. It's heyday for prophets of doomsday. Los the Many in the Israelite Conception of God. Cardiff: University of Wales Press. Angeles Times, April 8: 1, 26, 27. 8. Sec, for example, Von Rad, Gerhard. 1966. Deuteronomy, trans, by 19. Deuteronomy 28:49ff, a biblical prophecy misused by Lindsey and Dorothea Barton. Philadelphia: Westminster Press: 23fT; Kuhl, Curt. 1961. others, describes the desttuction of Israel that took place duting the The Old Testament: Its Origins and Composition, trans, by C.T.M. Herriott. Babylonian invasions in the sixth century BCE (cf. 2 Chronicles 36:15-23), Richmond: Virginia: John Knox Press: 80(T; Nicholson, E.W.. 1967. not the first century CE Roman destruction of the Jewish state. Ezekiel 36-39 Deuteronomy and Tradition, Philadelphia: Forrrcss Press: Ch. 1. is also misused. The writer was concerned with the reconstitution of the state 9. Just how the contradictions between Exodus 20 and Deuteronomy in the sixth century BCE. not to modern Israel. From Zechariah 9-12 (com­ (both of which are ascribed to Moses) were handled during the seventh and posed during rhc Greek period fourth and third centuries BCE). Gospel writ­ sixth centuries cannot be known. ers lifted messianic references to affirm Jesus' role. Zechariah's apocalyptic imagery, which has nothing to do with Christian millennial fantasies, is mis­ 10. Job 1: 8-10, 2:3-6. The counselor Eliphaz argued that because of applied by today's doomsaycrs. O human imperfection, no one could be righteous before Yahweh (Job 4:17. 25:4).

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32 January/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER New Russian Initiative to Defend Science and Reason

BY PAUL KURTZ, CHAIRMAN, CSICOP

We are pleased to present in the following pages two pieces dealing with the growth of pseudo- science in Russia. During the Soviet period Marxist-Leninist dogma prevailed. The need to develop skepticism and critical thinking about claims to knowledge was not encouraged. With the recent development of a more democratic, open society, a plethora of new paranormal (and religious) cults of unreason have appeared. Yet there does not exist an adequate forum for coping with these mani­ festations; and there is little scientific expertise in evaluating paranormal claims and insufficient pub­ lic appreciation for the methods of science, or the importance of skepticism, as intrinsic to the process of scientific inquiry. I have visited Russia four times since 1989, attempting to establish cooperative projects with Russian colleagues. I am pleased to say that these visits have resulted in the establishment of a Center for Inquiry at Moscow State University, which opened in September 1997. The theme of the inaugural con­ gress was "Science and Common Sense in Russia: Crisis or New Possibilities?" Many of Russia's leading scientists and scholars participated. The new Russian Center for Inquiry is under the directorship of Valerii Kuvakin, professor of phi­ losophy and chairman of the Russian Humanist Society. The Center publishes a journal entitled Zdravyi smysl, which is roughly translated into Common Sense or Critical Thinking. The program of the Center is designed to defend science and reason, to provide a public resource that will present information to the public, and to cultivate critical thinking. Many members of the Center also wish to use reason to define and defend democratic and ethical values. In the following article, "Science and Pseudoscience," Professor Sergei Kapitza attempts to explain why irrational beliefs have developed, not only in Russia, but worldwide. This he attributes in part to the rapid changes that are occurring on a global scale. Sergei Kapitza is a Fellow of CSICOP. He has attended our conferences (including the Heidelberg Second World Skeptics Congress) and has pub­ lished in the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER before. Kapitza is a physicist, a former editor of the Russian edition of Scientific American, and vice president of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences. He moderates one of the most popular TV series in Russia, in which he consistently defends science against pseudo- science. We also publish following that a remarkable statement recently issued by thirty-two distinguished Russian scientists and philosophers, many of whom I know personally. The statement reflects new efforts by Russian colleagues to present a scientific and rational response to the growth of pseudo- science and the cults of unreason. We are pleased that the statement reflects the influence on CSICOP on their thinking. It is a welcome addition to the efforts of other scientists and scholars in the world who wish to defend the integrity of the sciences and to criticize paranormal pseudoscience.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Janua<,/Februa-y 1999 33 Science and Pseudoscience in Russia

SERGEI P. KAPITZA

cience in Russia is in a difficult state. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the existing structure of science Shas to a great extent fallen apart. The hard sciences were intimately associated with the military effort and were part of the military-industrial complex. The soft sciences were connected with the dominant ideology, and have lost much of their substance and message after the demise of Communism. With the profound economic crisis, when at least half of industry is not producing and practically no investment is made in the economy, science is in a precari­ ous, if not desperate, situation. With rampant social disruption, and millions of people unemployed and displaced, the conditions for developing

34 January/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER the decaying system. Some were supported by the military, in bogus and secret projects. These events were clearly symptoms of a deep crisis, and any conscientious observer saw them as a precursor of things to come. In the present conditions all controls have now gone, no censorship exists, and even the limits of decency are trespassed in the press and on television. The freedom to publish has led to a veritable flood of pseudoscience. Books on various alter­ native theories, ideas, and teachings arc on the market. With the revival of established traditional religions and much greater freedom, bizarre sects spread, especially among the young. Pseudoscience is even observable in high levels of the acad­ emic establishment. A well-known mathematician is publiciz­ ing a new chronology of world history where there is no place for the Middle Ages and a thousand years of history are thrown out. These ideas are based on computer studies of Sergei Kapitza at the Second World Skeptics Congress in Heidelberg, manuscripts and astronomical data. In spite of a strong state­ Germany. ment of the Academy of Science of Russia and of professional and promoting science are indeed very poor. Still, the educa­ criticism by historians, these works are published and dis­ tional system has survived; the schools and universities have cussed in the mass media. Work on cold fusion and other mar­ retained their students and are sustaining high academic stan­ ginal effects are supported and publicized, for ihe level of dards. The country has opened up to the world and we now see expertise and often the great persuasive power of these pseudo- that the training of our younger generation is definitely up to scientists leads to the support of their ideas. Where, then, are world standards. the limits to public debate and of professional honesty? Or is Unfortunately, this well-trained and educated intellectual this all a transient phenomenon? Out of chaos will a new order power is not properly employed. Highly trained scientists leave finally come? These are not easy issues to resolve. Time and the country and seek employment abroad. Many of the younger again the public is persuaded, if not fooled, on important mat­ generation seek work in fields where they can make a living but ters of professional interest, often amplified by the media. do not follow their training in science or technology. For a tra­ At the same time numerous pseudo-academies have been ditionally static society, the mobility of this young and promis­ set up, from shamanism and black magic to seemingly more ing generation is high. The older generation, well established in respectable headings like "information science" and others. the former system, has great difficulty adapting to the new real­ They sound reasonable, but the professional standards prac­ ities of life. In fact, a whole generation, the lost generation of ticed are very low and often are really attempts to institution­ this great period of social upheaval, is now in a very difficult alize pseudoscience. Unfortunately, these groups manage to get state. It may gradually be displaced by the younger and more- support and capture the attention not only of the media, but active modern generation, who are the real hope for our future. also of some political bodies. At the same time, the Academy of In the organization of science, the traditional division Sciences, which is certainly the main body of science and between science and teaching has become a major issue. The should be the custodian of intellectual standards of a great cul­ government has stated that the cooperation of science and tural tradition, has had a very difficult time establishing and teaching should be pursued, but unfortunately, due to the con­ propagating its scientific and intellectual authority. servatism of the whole system, it is very difficult to carry out These conditions are only made more complicated and dif­ these policies. The loss of the old ideology has led to a verita­ ficult by a lack of coherent science policy. Perhaps in these ble vacuum of ideas, an emptiness and lack of meaning in life, cases the last vestige of science is the professional honesty and having a deep effect on the young and expressed in the morals of society. Sergei Kapitza is the vice-president of the Russian Academy of It is in these conditions that we should examine the state of Natural Sciences. An author of six books, his works range from science and pseudoscience in Russia. In the former system aerodynamics, magnetism, electrodynamics and accelerators to there was not much room in such a highly controlled society studies of global problems and population dynamics. He lives and for pseudoscience. But in the last years of the ancien regime works in Moscow. He has a research position at the Institute far pseudoscience emerged, mainly in the guise of astrology, para­ Plyysical Problems and a teaching position at the Moscow Institute psychology, quack medicine, and similar manifestations. The for Physics and Technology. For ten years he was in charge of the authorities themselves had not only lost control, but in many Russian edition of Scientific American and for 25 years has occasions the practitioners ol pseudoscience found support in moderated the main Russian TV program on science and society.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER january/februa-y 1999 35 integrity of scientists, who must face these adverse conditions. Russia may follow the example of the German Weimar This is the real and effective factor that will permit science, as Republic, a historic analogy that is worth remembering. Thus a social institution, CO get through these difficult years. In we see that the symptoms of the pseudoscieniific crisis may these matters international recognition and collaboration are signal a deep-rooted and socially dangerous development both very significant. Of special importance is the support for for reason and democracy. Russian science by the INTAS collaboration and the Soros Finally, what are the real long-term and profound reasons foundation based on external expertise. Academia Europaea for these irrational developments, the decline of reason at a has brought recognition and moral support to many of those time when the possibilities for development are so numerous who were at a loss in these years of transition. and the promise of science so great? It may be assumed that in On the other hand, it may be thought that these condi­ facing and, it is to be hoped, resolving these issues a global tions, so manifest in Russia and multiplied by the social col­ approach is really necessary. These general trends are hardly lapse, are also the result of a global intellectual crisis, through ever resolved by the sorts of reductionist explanations offered which European civilization is now passing. Many of these on a short-term cause-and-effect basis. Perhaps these events symptoms can be traced to the crisis of rationalism. The criti­ have to be seen in the larger perspective, in the longue dureeof cism of rational thinking and antiscience is not unknown in great structural changes in our growth and development. But the West. In Russia we do not as yet have deconstructionism here we are lacking the time scale to objectively observe these as an influential trend in philosophy, but hypocriticism and events of our daily concern. Can this loss of relevance and challenging conventional wisdom are part of the story. Now, bearings be due to the very rapid changes now happening in after a few years of such critical approach to the past and pre­ the globally connected world—when there is no time for the sent, those who were the most outspoken have failed to deliver longer processes of culture to take place in a world overrun by any positive message. On a political level this is leading to a numerical growth, and when evolution has no time to develop disillusionment with the ideas of democracy and the ideals of by trial and error? Can we suggest that these factors are the rea­ Western culture. It is now obvious in the arts, and perhaps in sons for the current flight from reason that arc being diag­ no field it is so noticeable as in cinematography. All this may nosed and discussed in this World Skeptics conference? seem to be rather far from science, but it certainly demon­ strates the changes in social consciousness now happening, and References the changing mores and values of the people. The most unfortunate thing is that economic decline is Kapirza. S.. 1991. Anti-science trends in ilic Soviet Union. Scientific American Vol. 139. August. leading to a marked shift to the right with the emergence of Kapitza, S„ 1990. The state of Russian science. World Science Review nationalistic mass movements. If these developments carry on, UNESCO. O

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36 Januaty/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Science Needs to Combat Pseudoscience A Statement by 32 Russian Scientists and Philosophers

[*ubli

e, representatives of many sciences and disci­ plines—astronomers, physicists, chemists, biolo­ Wgists, philosophers, lawyers, psychologists—are concerned by the widespread growth of astrology, alternative medicine, palmistry, numerology, and mystic pseudoscience in Russia and other countries of the world. We wish to draw the attention of the public to the threat of an uncritical atti­ tude to the prophesies and advice of modern "practitioners of the occult sciences," proffered both privately and in the mass media. Those who believe in the dependence of human fate on heavenly bodies, magic substances, or witchcraft need to understand that science can in no way provide sup­ port for these beliefs.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 1999 37 In bygone times people believed in and used astrology, stricken many countries of the world. This prompted a public alchemy, cabalistic mysticism, and alternative folk medicine. statement in 1975 criticizing astrology by 186 leading scien­ These ideas were a substantial part of the mythological and tists (including eighteen Nobel Prize-winners), which was magical view of the world providing a pre-scientific weltan- widely acclaimed throughout the world. schaaiingan6 cognitive purpose, for science was taking its first Today it is time for the community of Russian scientists to steps. People believed that the heavenly bodies were the man- confront these issues with all their power. itcsi.uions of the forces of gods that could magically influence One of the unquestionably great achievements of recent earthly objects. Physical processes seemed to be the product of years is the opportunity for people to express their opinions cryptic "hidden properties," and chemical elements seemed to openly. Unfortunately, many people are ensnared by the per­ be the product of magic. People had no understanding of the suasive power of absurd and dangerous superstitions; they nature of chemical and physical interactions. Today, when must not be conned by their pseudoscientific attire. No science understands the main causes by which heavenly bodies attempts to make magical thinking scientifically respectable influence phenomena on Earth, there are no scientifically can possibly conceal their utter incompatibility with science. based reasons to claim that these occult interactions may influ­ ence the destiny of humans. A person's psychophysiological structures are not deter­ Signed by: mined by the position of the stars and planets at the time and Vice presidents and members of the Council of the place of birth, but by the inherited genetic code and sociocul- Russian Academy of Sciences: tural factors. Astrology mystically interprets the variations of V. Kudryavtsev (vice president, RAS) the geomagnetic field and solar activity that have an effect on 0. Nefedov (vice president, RAS) human well-being. Solar flares and magnetic storms actually R. Petrov (vice president, RAS) do have an effect on the human psyche and on human behav­ B. Topornin (secretary. Department of Philosophy, ior, but astrology and quack medicine do not provide an Sociology, Psychology, and Law, RAS) understanding of these phenomena. Directors of research institutes: Living organisms do manifest a feeble electromagnetic radia­ A. Boyarchuk, Institute of Astronomy, member of RAS tion, but there is no known scientific evidence to claim the exis­ A. Brushlinskii, corresponding member of RAS, Institute tence of "biofields" or "psychic energy." The astrological calendar of Psychology does not correspond to actual physical reality, but only provides V. Skulachev, member of RAS, Institute of Physical and archaic metaphorical descriptions of astronomical events. Chemical Biology, Moscow State University V. Stepin, member of RAS, Institute of Philosophy Superstitious beliefs and the uncritical acceptance of coinci­ A. Cherepashchuk, corresponding member of RAS, dences as causative undermine our reliance on the capacity of Sternberg State Institute for Astronomy, Moscow human beings to realistically face the events of life. Astrologers, State University parapsychologists, and clairvoyants assert untested claims based Members of Russian Academy of Sciences: on pseudoscience; they organize academies and grant degrees. I. Atabekov (biology) Many people believe in clairvoyance, astrology, and other A. Bogdanov (biology) superstitions to compensate for the psychological discomforts D. Gvishiani (systems studies) of our time. Others seek the advice of outside authorities in V. Ginzburg (physics) making significant decisions. Personal and social problems, G. Dobrovolskii (biology) with which one cannot cope, drive one to witches, shamans, N. Kardashev (space astronomy) and quack therapists. The belief in astral forces provides an V. Laptev (law) opportunity to evade the responsibility for choice and absolves T. Oizerman (philosophy) M. Ostrovskii (biology) people of accepting their own mistakes. E. Feinberg (physics) At a time of widespread dissemination of scientific educa­ tion and great advances in science, we can no longer assume Corresponding members of Russian Academy of Sciences: that superstitions will disappear of their own accord. On the N. Bikkenin (philosophy) L. Mitrokhin (philosophy) contrary, society is now inundated by the "occult sciences." The A. Guseinov (philosophy) V. Nersesyantz (law) N. Lapin (philosophy) E. Chekharin (law) propagators of pseudoscience and "cryptic knowledge" attempt V. Lektorskii (philosophy) V. Chkhikvadze (law) to take over the mantle, terms, and methods of genuine science. Astrology, for example, attempts to influence political and eco­ Doctors of Science: nomic decisions, shamelessly intruding into the private lives of Yu. Efremov (astronomy) B. Pruzhinin (philosophy) persons. Much of this is encouraged by the mass media, play­ I. Kasavin (philosophy) M. Rozov (philosophy) A. Ogurtsov (philosophy) ing on and exploiting human fallibilities. Mystic pseudoscience is an international malady that has

38 January/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Testing Dowsing The Failure of the Munich Experiments

J. T. ENRIGHT

he notion that certain skilled individuals can dis­ cover underground water by using a mysterious tal­ Tent known as "dowsing" (or "witching" or "divin­ ing") is widely regarded among serious scientists as no more than a superstitious relic from medieval times. No plausible physical or physiological mechanism has ever been proposed by which such detection might be possible. Nevertheless, the worldwide persistence of this practice through the centuries might lead open-minded people to wonder whether there could be a germ of truth behind the folklore. After all, valu­ able additions to the modern pharmacopoeia have some­ times been derived from folk medicine, thus proving that not all folklore is unmitigated superstition.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Jinujr»/February 1999 39 Planning an Experimental Study viduals for the final, critical experiments: those who seemed to be most successful in the preliminary tests. Those dowsers all Many dowsers in Germany think that the stimuli to which they freely participated in the carefully controlled final experi­ claim to respond ("earthrays," said to be a subtle form of radia­ ments, which they accepted as suitable to their abilities. There tion not otherwise known to science) arc potentially hazardous could thus be no basis for subsequent claims that the test pro­ to human health, perhaps even inducing cancer. Hence, in the gram was inappropriate or unfair. middle 1980s, the German government brought together a committee to consider how a proper study might be conducted to investigate the possibility that dowsing is a genuine skill. II Experimental Design dowsers can indeed detect (dangerous?) radiation, perhaps they The detailed test procedure was a very simple one. On the might be able to contribute to research in public health issues. ground floor of a large vacant barn near Munich, a ten-meter The outcome of those deliberations was a grant of 400,000 test line was established, along which a small wagon could be German marks (about $250,000), in 1986, to university physi­ moved; and atop the wagon was a short length of pipe, per­ cists in Munich. Generous funding assures a large-scale project, pendicular to the line and connected by hoses to a pump that so that even weak effects might become evident; the reputation could provide circulating water. Circulating water was chosen of university-based researchers for open-minded integrity rather than still water because the traditions of dowsers postu­ means that their participation provides credibility that a project late that useful underground water supplies are mainly to be managed only by dowsers themselves would not have. found as flowing streams that they refer to as "water arteries" For an open-minded test of claimed extraordinary abilities, and not just within extensive deposits of permeable sediment, the claimants deserve a lair opportunity for success by provid­ as geologists would tell them. The location of the pipe for each ing conditions they regard as suitable, and in this regard, the single test was to be determined by a computer-generated ran­ Munich researchers seem to have bent over backward. dom number (although the settings actually used turned out Experiments designed only by doubters might, of course, leave to be decidedly nonrandomly located along the line). dowsers with convenient reasons to discount a disappointing On the upper floor of the barn, directly above the experi­ outcome. Enthusiasts for dowsing were therefore involved in mental line, a ten-meter test line was established. For the crit­ the planning sessions. When practitioners of various occult ical final experiments, a dowser was re-admitted to the upper- "skills" have, in the past, been unsuccessful under controlled floor arena each time that the pipe had been repositioned, and testing, they have at times claimed that the research was con­ was required, with his or her witching stick (or pendulum or ducted in a skeptical (by implication, hostile) atmosphere, other tool of choice), to guess where the pipe on the ground which interfered with their performances and invalidated the floor was located. A given dowser was tested in a sequence of studies. That potential problem did not arise in the Munich from 5 to 15 single tests (typically 10), which typically took experiments because the principal investigators, from the about an hour. During the two-year program in the barn, the University of Munich and the Technical University of Munich, forty-three selected dowsers participated in 843 single tests, had publicly gone on record as thinking that dowsing is prob­ grouped into 104 test-scries of this sort. Some dowsers under­ ably a genuine phenomenon. No hostility there! took only a single test series, selected others underwent more Water dowsing ordinarily takes place out of doors, and this than ten test series. raises potential difficulties for meaningful experiments, It would seem that such indoor testing should appreciably because no two outdoor locations can be considered fully simplify the dowsers' task. Out of doors, the critical stimuli equivalent replicates; and the essence of proper scientific might be deflected or refracted by intervening layers of soil and research is replicated testing to examine reproducibility. Most rock, but in the barn, the only obstruction was the flooring German dowsing practitioners, however, also claim to be able between stories. Furthermore, in an outdoor setting, the detec­ to dowse the location of water piping in a garden or within a tion of "water arteries," as dowsers envision them, should structure, so indoor testing was decided upon. require remarkable precision. If, say, a 3-metcr-diamctcr stream Another potential problem is that among those who think of water were to be located at a depth of 100 meters, the dowser that they have dowsing skill, some may be mistaken or perhaps must achieve precision of less than 1° around the vertical in are even deliberate frauds. To avoid these potential pitfalls, determining the point of maximal stimuli for drilling, and this some 500 candidate dowsers were recruited for preliminary apparently implies detection of minuscule changes in stimulus testing. That group was winnowed down to forty-three indi- direction and/or intensity. Comparable 1 "-precision around the vertical in the barn, however, with the target only, say, about / T. (Jim) Enright is a professor of behavioral physiology, Scripps five meters away, would result in uncertainty of less than 10 Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San centimeters around the pipe's actual location. Diego, La Jolla. CA 92093, where he emphasizes data analysis in Before the experiments began, a professional magician was teaching critical evaluation of scientific literature. He has con­ brought in to inspect the entire arrangement for the potential ducted research on "biological clocks" and sensory physiology of for deception or cheating by the dowsers. As an additional pre­ both crustaceans and humans and has spent several years at caution against cheating (such as peeking through cracks in the research labs in Germany and Austria. floor), an experimenter/observer was also present to supervise

40 January/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 100 T 100 0 f 80 Jf 1 80 ] E "O 60 * * 60 i I 40 40 O O Q o o •>

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SKEPTICAL INQUIRER lanua-y/Februa.y 1999 41 100

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Figure 2: Dowsing results from the second of the four test series undertaken by dowser #99. These results were evaluated by the researchers as the "best" of all 104 series undertaken, and represent the only set of dowsing data from the barn presented graphically in the final research report. A: pre­ sentation in the format used by Wagner, Betz, and Konig (1990); b: presentation in the format of Figure 1 here. the dowsers' performances, and to record the guesses. Double- dowsers were tested alternately, each pipe setting being used blind procedures assured that neither the observer nor the twice in succession. It was assumed that their guesses could be dowser knew the pipe's location, even after a guess had been treated as independent because the two individual dowsers made; thus, no feedback was provided during the critical testing. were not simultaneously present in the test arena. The study involved many thousands of preliminary tests, in If a dowser felt that his or her concentration was waning which the careful controls of the final critical experiments were during testing, the test series could be interrupted or termi­ relaxed. Often, for example, feedback about success or failure nated, which apparently happened quite often. Thus, it seems was given in those preliminary tests. Sometimes the pipe was quite obvious that many accommodations were made to the filled with fresh water, sometimes salt water, sometimes even wishes and whims of the dowsers and the experimenters. empty; sometimes flow was turbulent, sometimes not; some­ Nevertheless, many aspects of sound experimental design were times sand or gravel was mixed in with the water, and so on. built into the critical testing: double-blind protocol, no feed­ The preliminary testing had two purposes: as indicated above, back about success or failure, randomized (well, sort of!) pipe to eliminate those candidates whose trials showed no appre­ settings, replicated testing of the same dowsers on different ciable dowsing skill (more tiian 90 percent of the candidates!); days, and a large-scale program (843 critical tests) so that small and to choose for the selected participants those aspects of the sets of "good" results would not deserve undue attention. preliminary tests (fluid, flow rate, etc.) that had led to their It is conceivable that the noise of water turbulence (some­ best initial results. Each individual's final critical testing could times with gravel in the water) could have provided localized thus be based on his or her "optimal stimuli." auditory information during the testing. Another concern is Before a critical test series, each dowser was asked to deter­ that the experimenter supervising the dowsers may not have mine whether there were any places along the test line (with­ been properly "blinded," when aware that identical pipe set­ out pipe present) that seemed to provide stimuli that could be tings were being used for two dowsers in alternation. If truly mistaken for the target (presumably indicating natural sources remarkable dowsing success had been achieved in the experi­ of "earth rays"). In quite a large number of cases, two or three ments, such concerns would deserve careful attention. In fact, such locations were reported along the 10-meter line. "Earth however, the overall negative outcome suggests that any resid­ rays" are seemingly nearly everywhere! When such non-target ual defects in the experimental design usually had no impor­ stimuli were reported, the surrounding regions of the line (typ­ tant impact on the outcome. ically one meter wide) were then excluded for that dowser's test series as potential test locations. (A given dowser often Expectations reported different artifact locations on different days; natural sources of "earth-ray" stimuli are apparently transient.) Proper planning requires that one consider in advance what An ideal experimental design was frequendy compromised, sort of results might arise from experiments of this design, if because two dowsers arrived at the barn at the same time. dowsing were to be a real, reproducible phenomenon. Several Instead of testing those individuals one after the other, the two examples of hypothetical outcome are shown in Figure 1.

42 January/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER "Perfect" skill (the equivalent of using Superman's X-ray vision ' T o oo a °eSo oK ' 8 /?Z .°l 00 "V o°°0 of plot. Note that while the "Weak-Skill" results are very scat­ 8 ° E o° 6 g 00d> j Oo 8°e ° tered, they do not look random (nor are they: r = 0.57, p < o o ,oo- oO0O 3 o o o» 0.001) because of the vacant regions of the graph in the upper- 00 ° *%«>%,' u 40 8% S> »8 left and lower-right corners, an issue that arises again below. v$ o °8 •o1°ooo-8(fl J n ,40 CD ° cm

The evidence provided for this interpretation consisted of a plot points shown in Figure 3 were riius randomly intermixed.) of tesults from a single test series (out of 104 available), data The results of two such randomizations are shown in Figures shown here as Figure 2; and a table summarizing the purported 4a and 4b. It would be difficult to defend a claim that the statistical significance of each of die 104 test series. (This sum­ actual results (Figure 3) show better concordance with expec­ mary is based on nonstandard statistical methods that were con­ tations (Figure 1) than do the randomizations of Figure 4. spicuously fitted to die data. More conventional statistical tests To depend on what seems evident by inspection, however, suggest less interesting conclusions [Enright 1995].) The pecu­ may seem like an unrigorous approach. As an elementary form liar plot in the report (Figure 2a) gives the visual impression of of quantification, the coordinate system of Figure 3 can be very good correspondence between observed and expected divided into squares, each 2.5 meters on a side, and the results. The re-plot in Figure 2b places those data in a more enclosed data points counted. Some of those counts are pre­ revealing context. Half of the results in Figure 2b (5 tests of 10) sented in Figure 5. Recalling that even weak skill should pro­ do indeed resemble an ideal hypothetical outcome (Figure la or duce very few observations in the upper left and lower right lb), but it deserves emphasis that Figure 2 cannot be considered regions of such a graph (Figure le), those two corner quadrats "typical" but instead represents the very "best" results, consisting in Figure 5 can be summed. The total (90) turns out to be only often tests out of 843, from one test series out of 104. (In greater than the sum of counts in the upper right and lower 843 spins of a roulette wheel, at least one sequence of 10 results left (87), so these counting data could even be interpreted, if that includes several seemingly exceptional events might be one were so inclined, as suggestive of weak <7/»r/-dowsing skill. expected to arise by chance alone.) A Few Unusually Talented Individuals? A Broader Look at All the Data The researchers in the Munich study would probably protest Presented in Figure 3 is a plot of all 843 test results. The against this treatment of the data by noting that outstanding human eye is remarkably adept at detecting pattern in plots performances like these shown in Figure 2 have been obscured like this. Note, for example, groups of points that seem to fol­ by results from unskilled candidates. That objection falters low curvy lines through certain regions of the graph. when one recalls that Figure 3 includes only the final tests of Resemblance to the expectations of Figure 1, however, is those forty-three dowsers (out of some 500 candidates) who decidedly absent in Figure 3. Instead, the visual impression is were selected on the basis of preliminary testing as being the that these results seem to be distributed more or less at ran­ most skillful. Nevertheless, the possibility of unusual skill by dom. In order to examine that interpretation, the actual results only a very few individuals deserves careful scrutiny. In the tab- can be compared with the outcome of genuine randomization. ularion of the final report, there were two other test series (in To that end, the dowsers' actual choices were randomly paired addition to that shown in Figure 2) that the researchers them­ with pipe settings from other test series. (The x and y values of selves evaluated as being particularly impressive. Results from all

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three of those test series are presented in Figure 6a. Furthermore, the overall outcome (Figure 3). What it amounts to, then, is there were four other test series (from three other dowsers) that that among the 104 test series, there were several that seemed were considered by the researchers also to indicate lesser but somewhat interesting, but those dowsers responsible could not nonetheless remarkable skill; those results are summarized in reproduce that kind of result in other comparable tests. And Figure 6b. These two graphs of the very "best" test series present seven series out of 104 (each with a probability, as evaluated by the outcome of the entire research program in its most favorable the peculiar statistical test of the researchers, of less than 0.05) light. Despite many errors, there are indeed an impressive num­ is not appreciably different from what might be expected due ber of guesses that were not far from the pipe's actual location. to chance alone from ordinary statistical testing. So dowsing Do those results justify the assertion of the final report that "skill" in the Munich experiments proved to be unreproducible "some few dowsers" were remarkably successful? Decidedly not! across a spectrum of 500 candidates, as well as within a group Each of the six dowsers who contributed to the data shown in of forty-three individuals selected because they initially seemed Figures 6a and 6b participated in other test series, and die out­ to be particularly talented (Figure 3); nor was it reproducible comes of those replicated series by those same dowsers (Figures even by those six special individuals who on one occasion or 6c and 6d) seem to be quite unimpressive: just as scattered as another seemed to have guessed relatively well. 100 T A Simple Alternative Strategy 54 42 There is another way of evaluating the results from those 952 80 r*~ dowsers who produced the "best" test series of Figure 6. E Suppose that they had always left their dowsing equipment at 48 50 home in the closet, and had simply, in each and every test, just guessed that the pipe was located exactly at the middle of the test line. As shown in Figure 7b, all six of the "best" dowsers O 40 would have done better on average by making mid-line guesses 56 60 than achieved by actual dowsing, in terms of the root-mean- square error, a commonly used index of reliability (similar to 20 the standard deviation). The root-mean-square error puts particular emphasis on 45 36 gross mistakes, but these results can also be evaluated in terms

1—1 H 1 •—1 of a different criterion that does not have that property: average 20 40 60 80 100 absolute values of the errors. (Absolute values are preferable to simple averaging of errors; simple averaging would mean that Pipe Location: decimeters an error of two meters to the left and another two meters to the Figure 5: Numbers of dowser guesses in selected quadrats of Figure 3, right of the pipe might be regarded, on average, as perfect per­ based on subdivision of the coordinate system into squares, each 250 cen­ timeters on a side. formance.) On the basis of this absolute-value criterion, as

44 January/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Best of the Best Best of the Second-Best 100

0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 Pipe Location: decimeters Pipe Location: decimeters

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Figure 6: Selected examples of dowser performances. A: results from the three data sets that the Munich researchers considered "best" of all 104 series; b: results from the four test series, by three dowsers, that the researchers evaluated as also being exceptionally "successful"; c: Results from the other test series in which the dowsers of part a participated; d: Results from the other test series in which the dowsers of part b participated. In parts a and c, filled circles represent Dowser #99 (whose results are also presented in Figure 2), open circles represent Dowser #18. and open triangles represent Dowser #108. In parts b and d. filled circles represent Dowser #23. open circles represent Dowser # 110. and open triangles represent Dowser #89. Separate graphs of the results of these six individual dowsers are presented as Figures 2 and 3 in Enright 1995. There is no hint in those plots that any one of the six was appreciably more or less successful than the others.

shown in Figure 7a, five of the six "best" dowsers would have German taxpayers invested in die study. made smaller errors relative to die pipe by using the mid-line On the basis of these results (Figures 3, 5, 6 and 7), then, strategy than they actually made with dieir dowsing tools. And the Munich experiments constitute as decisive and complete a what about the sixth, whose dowsing was somewhat better than failure as can be imagined of dowsers to do what they claim middle-of-the-linc guesses (#89)? Those results from actual they can. dowsing were on average 4 millimeters better than mid-line guesses would have been. An average improvement of 4 mil­ A Sad and Sorry Postscript limeters (0.16 inch) by one dowser out of six (or out of forty- three, or out of 500) along a 10-meter test line scarcely seems Professor Betz (the primary spokesman for the Munich study) worth the time and effort that the researchers and the dowsers and his colleagues have published a response (Betz, H.-D., invested in diis project, nor wordi the 400,000 marks that the Konig. H. L, Kulzer, R., Trischler, R. and J. Wagner 1996) to

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/Ftbruary 1999 45 Dowser Number Conclusion

99 18 108 23 110 89 The Munich dowsing experiments represent the most exten­ 40 3 sive test ever conducted of the hypothesis that a genuine mys­ Eli terious ability permits dowsers to detect hidden water sources. W g 1 30 B \ The research was conducted in a sympathetic atmosphere, on 5o *I ., \\ \\- a highly selected group of candidates, with careful control of *£TSI > 20 < many relevant variables. The researchers themselves concluded that the outcome unquestionably demonstrated successful 10 I • : Actual Dowsing dowsing abilities, but a thoughtful re-examination of the data - : Mid-line Guess indicates that such an interpretation can only be regarded as the result of wishful thinking. In fact, it is difficult to imagine a set of experimental results that would represent a more per­ Dowser Number suasive disproof of the ability of dowsers to do what they claim. 99 18 108 23 110 89 The experiments thus tan and should be considered ,i decisive 40 failure by the dowsers. It seems very unlikely that any future careful experimental 30 \\\ \\ \ study of dowsing will produce results more favorable for the practitioners than the Munich experiments. An atmosphere 20 more sympathetic to the dowsers, with so many concessions to their whims, seems hard to imagine. In view of the outcome of 10 : Actual Dowsing those experiments, it is very unlikely that any sponsor would : Mid-line Guess ever provide funds for an even larger-scale study, such that very 0 weak skills (which might conceivably have vanished into the statistical noise here) could be uncovered. (It is noteworthy Figure 7: A: Dowser errors (averages of absolute values, indicated by filled squares) compared with errors that would have been made by guessing that the U.S. Geological Survey concluded much earlier [Ellis that in each test, the pipe was located exactly at the middle of the test line 1917] that further testing of dowsing " . . .would be a misuse (also average absolute values, indicated by short horizontal bars). B: Root- mean-square errors made by the dowsers compared with R.M.S. errors of public funds.") It seems appropriate, then, to reiterate here that would have resulted from guessing in each test that the pipe was the general conclusion originally drawn from these analyses located at the midline, with symbols as in part a. (Enright 1995): my critique of their results (Enright 1995). That defense is a (These) . . . experiments arc not only the most extensive and relatively feeble one (Enright 1996), but such exchanges are a careful scientific study of the dowsing problem ever attempted, but—if reason prevails—they probably also repre­ normal part of scientific controversies. Subsequently, however. sent the last major study of this sort that will ever be under­ Professor Betz (1997) published a paper in a fringe journal taken. (Enright 1995,369). that crossed the ethical boundaries that usually characterize the scientific enterprise. In that article, he asserted that as a result Because of the vigor, however, with which Professor Betz and of extensive scientific correspondence, I had conceded the colleagues defended their positive conclusions (Betz et al. validity of his own analyses and interpretations of the Munich 1996), and in view of the discouraging history of other claims dowsing data. about the occult, one may have residual doubts, as do I, about That statement is absolutely and categorically false. My only whether reason will prevail in this arena (Enright 1996). correspondence with Professor Betz (or anyone in his labora­ tory) since the publication of my original critique (Enright Acknowledgments 1995) consists of an e-mail message sent him in July 1997, This research was supported by the Narional Science Foundation under Gram which dealt only with my request for documentation of an BNS 93-13038. The substance of this article was presented in a lecture at die apparently implausible assertion about statistical procedures Second World Skeptics Congress, in Heidelberg, Germany, in July 1998. that had been attributed to him. He did not respond to that message, and so I re-sent the same message in August 1997, and References again he did not respond. Two unanswered e-mail messages Betz, H.-D. 1997. Neue Ergebnissc der Rutengangcrforschung. Wetter-Boden- from me clearly do not constitute an "extensive scientific corre­ Menseh (Zeitsehrifi fur Geobiologie) 5: 55-59. spondence." And I have never, in publication, in correspon­ Betz, H.-D., H. L. Konig. R. Kulzer, R. Trischler, and J. Wagner. 1996. dence, or in casual conversation even hinted that I accept Betz's Dowsing reviewed—the effect persists. Naturwissenschafien 83: 272—275. Ellis, A. J. 1917. Water-supply Paper 416, Department of die Interior, U.S. analyses and interpretations of the Munich dowsing data. The Geological Survey, Washington, D. C.: Government Printing Office. results presented here as well as in the formal scientific litera­ Enright. J. T 1995. Water dowsing: The Scheunen experiments. ture (Enright 1995, 1996) provide such a clear demonstration Naturwissenichafien 82: 360-369. Enright, J. T. 1996. Dowsers lost in a bam. Naturwissenschafien 83: 275-277. against real dowsing skill that to assert that I had retracted my Wagner. H., H.-D. Betz, and H. L Konig, 1990. Schlufibericht 01 KB8602, critique is both a false and an insulting assertion. Bundcsministcrium fur Forschung und Technologic. O

46 January/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER A Fallibilist Among the Cynics

SUSAN HAACK

Out of a contrite fallibilism, combined with a high faith in the reality of knowledge, all my philosophy has always seemed to grow. (C. S. Peirce)1

obody seriously doubts the possibility, or the use­ fulness, of finding things out; that is something we Nall take for granted when we inquire about our plane schedule, the state of our bank account, the best treat­ ment for our child's illness, and so forth. Nobody doubts, either, that sometimes, instead of really looking into things, people fudge, fake, and obfuscate to avoid discovering unpalatable truths; that is something we all take for granted when we ask who paid for this reassuring study, who stands

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER lanuary/february 1999 47 to gain from an official inquiry edge, truth, evidence, etc., provided you're fallibilist enough. minimizing that scandal, which Again and again, proponents of the Higher Dismissiveness party this expert witness works for, transmute true, fallibilist premises into false, cynical conclu­ and so on. sions: what is accepted as known fact isn't always so, therefore Of late, however, radical femi­ the concepts of knowledge and fact are ideological humbug; nists, multiculturalists, sociologists our judgments of the quality of evidence depend on our back­ of science, literary theorists, and (I ground beliefs, therefore there are no objective standards of evi­ am embarrassed to say) a good dential quality; science isn't sacred, therefore'^, must be a kind many philosophers as well— of confidence trick . . . though they look into questions about their plane schedules, bank To inquire well, to come up with plausible explanatory con­ accounts, medical treatments, etc., jectures and to make a good judgment of how likely it is that just like everyone else—profess to a conjectured explanation is true, requires both creativity and have seen through what the rest of us take for granted. All that respect for evidence—skill, care and persistence in seeking it high-minded talk about concern for truth, respect for evi­ out and assessing its worth, responsiveness to where it points. dence, finding out how things really are, they tell us, is noth­ Successful inquiry is difficult and demanding; and though our ing but a rhetorical smoke-screen disguising the covert opera­ capacity to inquire is both our most distinctively human and tions of power, of interests. Those of us who are still taken in, our most valuable trait, we very often go wrong. who feel no need for precautionary scare quotes when we refer The obstacles include not only our cognitive limitations, to truth, evidence, etc., arc "old-fashioned prigs" who don't but also our failures of will. Sometimes we don't want to know have a clear view of the matter.-' And as if that weren't bad the answer to our question badly enough to take sufficient cart- enough, the radical feminists and multiculturalists among the in looking, checking, testing, thinking; sometimes we don't revolutionaries hint that such naivete reveals complicity with really want to know; and sometimes we really don't want to sexism and racism, and the radical sociologists of science that know. The truth can be inconvenient, awkward, unpalatable, admiration for the achievements of the natural sciences reveals painful. Rather than really looking into things, people often reactionary conformism with the military-industrial complex. skimp, fudge, or fake it—think of the detective who doesn't An old-fashioned prig like myself sometimes feels—well, really want to know who committed the crime, just to collect like the proverbial cannibal among the missionaries; for within enough evidence to get a conviction, or the academic who is academia such ideas arc now almost an orthodoxy, taken in less concerned to find out the causes of racial disharmony than some quarters as indications of intellectual sophistication and to get a large grant for investigating the matter. moral rectitude. Recently I heard my dean, a physicist by train­ That's why intellectual integrity is valuable: a person of ing, express unease at the suggestion that the mission statement intellectual integrity, if he thinks some question needs looking for the College of Arts and Sciences include the phrase "con­ into, will be disposed genuinely to inquire, really to seek the cern for truth." The word makes people nervous, he explained, truth of the matter; his will and his intellect, instead of pulling and they're bound to ask, "whose 'truth'?" A sociologist col­ apart, will work together (the suggestion of wholeness carried league, seconding these reservations, observed that while of by "integrity" is exactly right). But even with the best will in course his research advances knowledge, he isn't concerned with the world, even when we really want to know, wc make plenty "truth." (When 1 last looked, however, the university newspa­ of honest mistakes as well as plenty of dishonest ones. per was still called Veritas, not " Veritas," in scare quotes.) How so? Human senses, memory, imagination, and powers Unless your conclusions are true, they aren't knowledge, of reasoning are limited. With ingenuity we can extend our but only purported knowledge; and it doesn't follow from the natural powers by means of microscopes, tables of logarithms, fact that people disagree about what is true, that truth is rela­ computers, etc.; but our ingenuity is limited too. And the tive to perspective. Still, though diagnosing the fallacies and complexity of evidence challenges our inferential capacities. ambiguities of the Higher Dismissiveness' is necessary work, Think of the meteorite that caused such a brouhaha among the best defense against its extravagances is a realistic under­ space scientists a while back. Does it really supply evidence standing of our epistcmic situation: of how difficult and that there was once bacterial life on Mars billions of years ago, demanding successful inquiry can be, how complex, confus­ or did it pick up bacterial traces while it was in Antarctica—or ing, and ambiguous evidence often is. For only such an under­ is what looks like evidence of bacterial life just an artifact of standing can make manifest what is, I believe, the heart of the the instruments? What are the grounds for thinking that the matter: that there's no need to give up on the objectivity of owl- gases it gives off when heated show it comes from Mars; that it had been in Antarctica for so many thousand years; that this Susan Haack, a CSICOP fellow, is Cooper Senior Scholar in Arts is what fossilized bacteria droppings look like?" and Sciences and professor of philosophy at the University of Evidence isn't linear and one-dimensional, like a mathe­ Miami. This article is based in part on her latest book. Manifesto matical proof, but complex and ramifying, more like a cross­ of a Passionate Moderate: Unfashionable Essays, published by word puzzle. The clues are the analogue of experiential evi­ the University of Chicago Press in the fall of 1998. dence, i.e., what a person sees, hears, etc.; already completed

48 Janua-r/februagraphology and I believe it's bunk, you review system under strain. There is no guarantee that the think how a candidate writes his G's is relevant to whether he mechanisms that have, thus far, proven more or less adequate is honest, and I think it's utterly irrelevant. Whether the way he to sustain intellectual integrity will continue to do so. writes his G's is relevant to his honesty depends on whether There are no grounds for complacency. But there arc no graphology is true: whether you judge it relevant, however, grounds, either, for the disdain of science and the factitious depends on whether you believe graphology is true. despair of the possibility of honest inquiry urged by the Everyone who inquires into how some aspect of the world Higher Dismissiveness, a despair that his at its root a refusal to is—scientists, historians, detectives, investigative journalists, accept that the less-than-perfect—fallible inquiry—is a lot and the rest of us—is working on some part of the same vast better than nothing at all. crossword. Here and there their entries intersect: so a historian relies on chemical tests to determine the age of a document, a What passes for known fact, truth, objectively good evidence, detective relies on DNA evidence to rule out a suspect, med­ often is no such thing and sometimes is simply what it suits the ical scientists rely on an amateur historian's family tree to trace powerful to have accepted as known fact, etc.. Proponents of the defect responsible for a rare pancreatic disorder.'' the Higher Dismissiveness conclude that the concepts of truth, The natural sciences have been the most impressively suc­ rationality, evidence, fact, etc., are nothing but ideological cessful of human cognitive enterprises; indeed, their successes humbug. To call a statement true, they tell us, is just to make a have been so impressive that we sometimes use the word "sci­ kind of power grab on its behalf, to give it "a rhetorical pat on entific" as an all-purpose term of epistemic praise, meaning the back."" But this dreadful argument—I call it the Passes For "strong, reliable, good." But the natural sciences aren't epis- Fallacy—is not only fallacious but self-undermining; for if it temically privileged. They don't set the standards of good evi­ were the case, as the conclusion says, that the concepts of truth, dence and well-conducted inquiry; rather, they have earned fact, etc., are purely ideological, then it couldn't be really-and- their epistemic distinction, coming up with explanatory theo­ truly true, as the premise says, that sometimes what passes for ries well anchored in experience and interlocking surprisingly truth, for known fact, etc., is no such thing, nor could we have with each other. objectively strong evidence for believing this is so. Natural-scientific inquiry is a thoroughly human enterprise, When the Passes For Fallacy is stated plainly, its fallacious­ fallible and messy, its progress ragged and uneven. There is no ness is obvious. Usually, however, as shorthand for what is uniquely rational method of inquiry or mode of inference avail­ accepted as knowledge, what passes for truth, etc.. the cynics able to scientists but not the rest of us. Natural-scientific write of "truth," i.e., so-called "truth," of "knowledge," i.e., so- inquiry is like empirical inquiry generally—only more so. The called "knowledge," and so on. The effect of the scare quotes is natural sciences have built on earlier results to devise instru­ to neutralize the implication of success ordinarily carried by ments of observation, techniques of mathematical, statistical, such words:' knowledge must be true, but "knowledge" needn't and computer modeling, and analogies, metaphors, models, be; facts must be so. but "facts" needn't be. As the scare quotes and diagrams—extending evidential reach, amplifying reason­ become ubiquitous, the difference between truth, or knowl­ ing powers, empowering the imagination; the phrase that edge, and (so-called) "truth" or (so-called) "knowledge" is for­ comes to mind is, "nothing succeeds like success." gotten; "truth," "knowledge," etc., acquire that characteristic

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Januar,/FebruJi» 1998 49 sneering tone—"yeah, right!"; and the Passes For Fallacy starts probably true, or more nearly true, or more empirically ade­ to sound like a valid argument instead of the sell-undermining quate, results; it doesn't follow that the natural sciences haven't non sequitur it really is. had remarkable successes, or that they are in no way epistemi- Those ubiquitous scare quotes also encourage the fashion­ cally distinguished. Science, like literature, requires imagina­ able idea that there is no one truth, but many incompatible tion, and scientists, like writers of literature, use metaphors truths. For though it is tautologically false that there arc and push at the limits of the language they inherit; it doesn't incompatible truths, it is perfectly true that there are incom­ follow that science is just a form of fiction. Scientific inquiry patible "truths." It is perfectly true, also, that there are differ­ is a deeply and essentially social enterprise, and its internal ent, but compatible, truths about the world. No cynical con­ organization and external environment can affect how well or clusion follows. poorly it is conducted; it doesn't follow that there is nothing And those scare quotes enhance the plausibility of certain more to scientific inquiry than a process of social negotiation forms of relativism. It makes sense to talk of what is taken for in which scientists trade their theoretical loyalties for prestige, true, what is accepted as relevant evidence, what passes for nor that the entities referred to in scientific theories are mere knowledge, only relative to some person or group of people. social constructions. Some of the knowledge the natural sci­ So if you don't distinguish truth and "truth," good evidence ences have achieved has the potential to cause grave harm— and "good evidence," knowledge and "knowledge," it can eas­ knowledge brings power, and power can be abused; but it ily seem to follow that truth, evidence, knowledge, etc., make doesn't follow that the natural sciences haven't achieved bona sense only relative to an individual, context, or culture, i.e., arc fide knowledge. subjective or relative. The popularity of epistemic relativism is also enhanced by As radical feminists and multiculturalists have jumped on the a widespread conviction that traditional, foundationalist theo­ bandwagon of the Higher Dismissiveness, the bizarre idea has ries of knowledge are bankrupt. But relativists often run come to be taken for granted that to suppose that there is such together, under the rubric "foundationalism," the general the­ a thing as truth, that it is possible to discover the truth by inves­ sis that there are objective standards of evidential quality, and tigation, or that the natural sciences have made many true dis­ a specific account of those standards; and thus take for granted coveries, must be to harbor regressive political tendencies. And that the failure of that account undermines the objectivity of so the sexist stereotypes deplored by old-lashioned feminists epistemic standards. And though it's true that the structure of have come to be celebrated as "women's ways of knowing," and evidence isn't, as foundationalists suppose, linear and one- the admirable goal of tolerance of cultural diversity has been dimensional, it doesn't follow that standards of evidence are transmuted into relativism or tribalism. This is very sad. relative to context, etc. Yes, excessive confidence that what you take to be true, is Then there's Kuhn's observation that proponents of rival true—the "blight of cocksureness"'' —can be a tool of oppres­ scientific paradigms disagree even about what constitutes evi­ sion. But reason, truth, evidence, are our best defense against dence. This, too, is true; but the conclusion that evidential racist and sexist stereotypes. And well-conducted inquiry—the standards are not objective but relative still doesn't follow. fallible, untidy, ragged process of groping for, and sometimes Proponents of rival scientific paradigms are much like you and grasping, something of how the world is—most certainly isn't me on that hiring committee; it is the deep-seated disagree­ a white male thing; it's a human thing. ment in their background beliefs, like our minor disagreement about graphology, that gives rise to their divergent judgments Notes of what evidence is relevant. 1. Collected Papers, eds Charles Harrliorne Paul Weiss, and Arthur Burks. Many proponents of the Higher Dismissiveness, rather Harvard University Press. Cambridge. MA. 1931-58. 1.14. 2. Sec Richard Rorty. Essays on Heidegger and Olhen. Cambridge than sticking consistently to a relativist stance, shift between University Press, Cambridge. 1991. p.86 (we are "old-fashioned prigs"); relativism and tribalism, between denying that it makes sense Stephen P. Stich, The Fragmentation of Reason. Bradford Books, MIT Press. to think of epistemic standards as objectively better or worse, 1992, p. 101 (we don't have "a clear view of the matter"). 3. The phrase is due to Anthony Gottlieb, from a review of Rorty. and claiming that their (non-white, non-Western, non-mas- 4. Adam Rogers. "Come in Mars." Newsweek. August 19. 1996, 56-58; culinist, non-scientific, or whatever) epistemic standards are Sharon Begley and Adam Rogers, "War of ihc Worlds," Newsweek, February better. Usually, shielded by this strategic ambiguity, they dodge 10. 1997.56-58. 5. Sec Susan Haack, Evidence and Inquiry: Towards Reconsiruclwn in charges of self-defeating relativism while evading the necessity Epislemology. Blackwell. Oxford. 1993. cs|>ccially chapter 4. to say why their standards are better. But occasionally you hear 6. Wendy Bounds, "One Family's Search for a Faulty Gene," Wall Street it suggested that non-white, non-Western, etc., standards are Journal. August 15. 1996, Bl, B7. 7. Richard Rorty, Consequences oj Pragmatism. Harvester, Hassocks, better because they are non-linear. The structure of evidence is, Sussex. 1982. xviii. indeed, non-linear; but what has this to do with race, gender, 8. On the use of scare quotes to neutralize success-words, the classic ttcat- and all that?—nothing. ment is David Stove, Popper and After: Four /nationalists (Pergamon, Oxford. 1981). reissued under rhe tirlc Anything Goes: Origins of the Cult of Scientific Let me be brisk; I am running out of space, and you arc- Irrationalism. by MacLeay Press, Paddington. Australia. 1998. chapter I. probably running out of patience with non sequiturs. There is 9. Peirce again, from Collected Papers. 1.13: "no blight can so surely arrest all intellectual growth than the blight of cocksureness." LJ no uniquely rational method exclusive to the sciences that guarantees that, as they proceed, they will arrive at true, or ©1999 Susan Haack

50 January/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER BOOK REVIEWS

A Cogent Consideration of the Case for Karma (and Reincarnation)

BY BARRY L. BEYERSTEIN

Reincarnation: A Critical Examination. By Paul Edwards. Prometheus Books, 1996. ISBN 1-57392-005-3. 313 pp. Hardcover, $31.95

ew of us enjoy having the frailties contemplate their own mortality. The of our most comforting beliefs solace provided by any sort of expecta­ Frevealed, and when the assump­ tion of an afterlife would probably have tions under scrutiny concern "big ticket" been sufficient to assure its undimin­ items such as the possibility of an after­ ished popularity all by itself, but, as life or the supernatural underpinnings of RREINGIIFLNATION: Edwards points out, the version of our moral precepts, a questioning atti­ immortality preached by most reincar- tude is almost guaranteed to make the A CRITICAL nationists offers yet another enticement. bearer about as popular as the proverbial Belief in reincarnation feeds not only skunk at the garden party. Paul Edwards the hope for life beyond the grave, but has risked this late once again, this time in conjunction with its frequent fellow by critically examining certain doctrines, traveler, the "law" of Karma, it also pro­ once confined largely to Hindu and vides apparent support for another Buddhist believers, that have recently widespread human longing, the desire gained popularity among the eclectic dis­ to believe that we inhabit a just universe. ciples of New Age spirituality. The warm glow this solution provides Interestingly, they have also attracted for believers diverts their attention from more than a few Christian adherents PAUL EDWARDS the many inherent conceptual and prac­ who cheerfully overlook the fact that the tical difficulties that Edwards lays bate in doctrine of reincarnation contradicts tion is accomplished with wit and flair, as this book. For instance, a major diffi­ other core tenets of their faith. is the case here. One all too rarely gets the culty for rcincarnationists is what he calls Heretofore largely ignored by Western bonus of chuckling through a detailed the "modus operandi" problem. For philosophers of any stature, the tradition­ and cogent analysis by an eminent magical thinkers, just imagining some­ ally associated (but logically indepen­ philosopher. Take for instance this exam­ thing can bring it about. But for the rest dent) doctrines of reincarnation and ple of the twinkle in the scholars eye that of us, there is the inconvenient need for Karma are thoroughly examined in Paul appears on page 18: "It seems ludicrous a plausible chain of causal mechanisms Edwards' enjoyable and encyclopedic that something as important as creation before we can grant the likelihood ofany treatise. Edwards proceeds with his usual of a soul that is going to exist forever given phenomenon. With the many precision to expose the hidden assump­ should be tied to such accidents as the advances in scientific understanding tions, the empirical flaws, and the often failure of a birth-control appliance." since the formulative days of the reincar­ unpalatable implications of these teach­ The belief that some essence of our­ nation story, it has become increasingly ings that, on the surface, can seem quite selves survives bodily death is perhaps difficult even to conceive of a reasonable appealing. It is alwavs a pleasure to watch the most comforting of all spiritual lean­ mechanism whereby a bodily attribute an incisive thinker cut right to the heart ings. It has provided reassurance for ol an issue and then proceed to lay out its human beings probably since our ances­ Barry Beyerstein is in the Brain Behavior logical consequents in clear and concise tors first evolved brains of sufficient Laboratory, Department of Psychology, prose. It is a double treat if that cxposi- complexity to anticipate the future and Simon Fraser University.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 1959 51 BOOK REVIEWS

(such as a birthmark or deformity, which perception of the worthiness of the indi­ today's earthlings necessarily inhabited a are afforded much attention in reincar- vidual to preserve our belief in a just body in a previous generation, and— nationist circles) or a mental property world, but what of infants afflicted with also according to doctrine—no new such as knowledge, a personality trail, or excruciating and disfiguring diseases, or souls are being created, and there were an inclination, could be packaged up at children orphaned and tortured by the fewer bodies on the planet then than the end of one persons lifetime, held in perpetrators of "ethnic cleansing"? How now, we would seem to be faced with a abeyance in non-physical form between could they possibly have accumulated serious soul deficit. A few reincarnation- incarnations (the "interregnum prob­ enough demerits in their short lives to ists have attempted to sidestep this lem") and finally implanted in a fetus in have deserved such a cruel fate? A ready impediment with mind-numbing ad hoc its mother's womb in preparation for answer, if you can accept it, is supplied gyrations (upgrading of animal souls, another revolution of the eternal by those two objects of Edwards' dis­ recruiting souls from other planets or carousel. It likewise strains credulity to secting scalpel, reincarnation and dimensions, soul sharing, etc.), but the accept the requirement that detailed tal­ Karma. Apparently, you can take it— extremes to which these apologists have lies of every good and bad deed commit­ accumulated moral capital, anyway— gone only underscores, as Edwards ted by every person who ever lived could with you, after all. Herein we have the notes, how fanciful the whole reincarna- be kept somewhere and weighed, let long-sought excuse for the panorama of tionist enterprise really is. alone harnessed to transgcnerational ret­ gratuitous evil and unearned windfalls Then we come to perhaps the weight­ ributive mechanisms as diverse as earth­ we encounter daily. Those kids deserved iest, and for mc (as a long-time student quakes, bacteria, raging bulls, lightning it all right, but not for what they did in of brain function), the most engaging bolts, or a large, ill-tempered bar patron this brief but brutal existence. Rather, objection to reincarnation raised by named Bob. they are expiating vicious acts in one or Edwards. A compelling reason to doubt The Canadian psychologist Melvin more ol an infinite series of previous that a packet of personality traits and Lerner and his colleagues have studied lives. And, incidentally, that Wall Street abilities could leap from a dying person, various psychological needs that make junk bond dealer does deserve his Rolex, into limbo, and thenceforth to a newly- the idea of transcendental fairness BMW, and yacht after all—he was obvi­ conceived embryo, is the evident linkage enforcers such as Karma perennially ously a somewhat more meritorious of all psychological attributes to highly attractive. Lerner describes a number of character in a previous incarnation. specific structures and functions in indi­ payoffs for believing in what he calls the Neat, huh? Well, yes, sort of and vidual brains. While modern neuro- "just world hypothesis," i.e.. the sooth­ even Edwards admits that this account science cannot conclusively rule out the ing notion that, in life, people generally makes more sense than the traditional possibility that disembodied conscious­ get what they deserve and deserve what Christian explanation that napalmed ness could exist, the staggering amount they get. Many of us rebel emotionally babies are, for reasons beyond our feeble of evidence suggesting that thinking, at the realization—easily prompted by a ken, an unfortunate by-product of remembering, and feeling require an quick glance at the daily headlines— Adam and Eve's predilection for apples. intact, functioning brain serves to make that the plums and brickbats of life seem But wait! As is so often the case, the the brain-mind link one of the most to be somewhat randomly apportioned, large print giveth, but the small print well-supported postulates to be found morally speaking. Apparently, it is too taketh away. The small print, deftly anywhere in science. I have presented an threatening for a large portion of the enlarged by Edwards, reveals that the overview of that evidence and its impli­ populace to admit that, no matter how doctrines of Karma and reincarnation, cations for a number of occult beliefs, long and hard one has tried to do the so conducive at first glance, carry with including reincarnation, in a previous right thing, the driver of that approach­ them some truly revolting implications, issue of this journal (SI, Winter 1988). ing bus could still be just about to doze ones their devotees seem rarely to have While Edwards does not advocate, as off. It is this motivation to salvage belief noticed. For instance, it follows from 1 did on that occasion, the most extreme in a hidden hand that metes out these views that I ought not to give a version of the materialist position on the deserved rewards and punishments on a donation for African famine relief "mind-body problem"—the psy- cosmic scale that explains the unsavory because those starving wretches must choneural identity hypothesis, which but widely observed tendency to dero­ deserve that fate for having blotted their asserts that mental functions are identi­ gate apparently innocent victims. For copybooks last time (or times) around. cal with states of the brain—he argues example, "She must have dressed or Helping the afflicted just thwarts their that the manifest dependence of all men­ behaved provocatively or she wouldn't Karma, you see. tal functions on specific brain functions have been raped, would she?" Another stumbling block raised by makes the possibility that personal traits, With adult victims of misfortune, it Edwards is the steadily climbing world knowledge, or self-awareness could skip is often sufficient merely to distort our population. If the souls of every one of from one incarnation to the next exceed-

52 January/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER BOOK REVIEWS

ingly remote. Either way, as I noted in edly one of the strongest in the reincar- tion for arguing not only with reincarna- the above-mentioned article, if this kind nationists' arsenal, Edwards docs skeptics tionists but with "near-death experience" of transmigration of traits and knowl­ the additional service of pointing out afficionados and afterlife enthusiasts of edge is possible, my entire chosen field of that some of the rebuttals that skeptics other stripes as well. They will be treated behavioral neuroscience is essentially a like to tout (myself among them, until 1 to a good read in the process—H. L. fool's errand. Fortunately, after reading read this chapter) were themselves the Mencken's essays spring immediately to this book, the prudent bettor will proba­ products of journalistic excess and thus mind in this regard. Reincarnation is a bly conclude that the chances of the con­ not to be relied upon. Edwards finds useful adjunct to Edwards' earlier edited cept of reincarnation being fatally flawed much else, however, to discredit the evi­ volume, Immortality (Macmillan, 1992) arc substantially greater than the proba­ dence for Virginia Tighe's prior existence and to another work that both he and I bility that the fundamental tenet of neuroscienceas Bridey Murphy(i.e. ,. Ibrain-minn the processd linkage, he , admire, Susan Blackmore's Dying to Live which, if true, makes reincarnation so supplies trenchant critiques of the use of (Prometheus, 1993). Skeptics familiar improbable) is in substantial danger. hypnosis and related techniques to with these works will enter debates well "reveal" memories of past lives. Suffice it prepared. They should be warned, how­ The evidence, such as it is, is exhaus­ to say that, overall, the empirical case for ever, that if the logic and evidence con­ tively examined by Edwards. Much of it reincarnation fares no better than the tained therein were the final determi­ comes from seemingly credible witnesses conceptual, logical, and moral ones. nants of belief, fuzzy but comforting who claim to have seen the projected Skeptics who follow my recommen­ notions like reincarnation and Karma "astral bodies" of others at the time of the dation and read Reincarnation: A Critical would never have gained their substan­ latter's death, or from children who seem Examination will derive much ammuni- tial cultural toehold in the first place. remarkably precocious, or who "remem­ ber" people, places or events that they —THE WUKljnS MOOT— seem unlikely to have known about if INCREDIBLE Incredible Stories: Fortean they had not actually experienced them STORIES in a previous life. Edwards shows that the THE BESTl>F P.'RTEAN TIKE; Mystery Mongering empirical evidence, like the supporting JOE NICKELL arguments put forth by past-life explorers such as Elizabeth Kubler-Ross, Stanislav •I The World's Most Incredible Stories: The Best of Fortean Times. Grof, Raymond Moody, and Ian Selected and edited by Adam Sisman. Barnes and Noble, New Stevenson are far less compelling than the York, 1998. ISBN 0-7607-0893-2. 192 pp. Hardcover, £20. tabloid headlines would have you believe. As with most anecdotal evidence of this ystery mongcring sells. Why damentally "political process" that sort, examination reveals that tales retold else would Barnes and Noble "depends on personal preference, upon by the faithful have a way of becoming Missue a 1998 edition of The the votes of a scientific jury—every tidier and more convincing as they pass World's Most Incredible Stories: The Best of member of which would be disqualified from mouth to mouth. Fortean Times' The book's title is quite from any normal inquiry on the basis of As Leonard Angel showed in these correct; many of the stories therein are in blatant conflict of interest." pages some time ago (SI, Fall 1994), fact incredible, as in "not credible," which To Watson what is needed is "a truly careful reading of the acknowledged is what we have come to expect from impartial investigator—a sort of scien­ "best cases" for reincarnation, e.g., sev­ Fortean Times magazine. Originally pub­ tific ombudsman—to provide the voice eral from the parapsychologist Ian lished in London in 1992, the collection of reason, to speak out for curious indi­ Stevenson, reveals significant internal of oddities, anomalies, and occult claims viduals against the vested interests of inconsistencies in the accounts that is (as its subtitle indicates) in the tradi­ those in authority." Fort fits the bill, says throw them into doubt, even before the tion of Charles Fort. Fort (1874-1932) Watson, who seems to speak lor Forteans evidence itself is examined. Edwards loved to challenge "orthodox" scientists everywhere when he states, "... 1 know notes similar problems in the evidential with things they supposedly could not that there is a vast field of unusual expe­ base and has taken the trouble to trace explain, like rains offish or frogs. rience from ail over the world, just wait­ many other "best" cases back as close to In the introduction to Incredible ing to be examined. The problem is that their sources as possible. Along the way, Stories, Lyall Watson paints a typically reports of it are, by their very nature. we are treated to some hilarious exam­ Fortean, typically disparaging view of ples of gullibility among those seized by science: an endeavor that "claims to be Joe Nickell is Senior Research Fellow at the the will to believe. In attacking the objective" but is "inherently conserva­ Committee for the Scientific Investigation famous "Bridey Murphy" case, suppos­ tive and resistant to change," even a fun- of Claims of the Paranormal (CSICOP).

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER lanuary/Febiuary 1999 53 BOOK REVIEWS

anecdotal, and therefore dismissed as a person to reach" (93). In fact, a seemed startled by airborne telephone unacceptable to science." SKEPTICAL INQUIRER article of Spring receivers and other flying objects (77). In fact, however, Charles Fort did not 1989 quoted a police detective as suggest­ Yet although reporters and parapsycholo- actually investigate reported occurrences. ing the affair was a hoax, and a subsequent gists were duped, some photographs and Having come into an inheritance that 1994 investigation provided corroborative television news footage captured Tina in permitted him to sit comfortably and evidence. Expert blood-pattern analysis of the act of toppling a lamp and producing indulge his hobby, he spent his last police photographs revealed that the other effects, while a television technician twenty-six years scouring old periodicals blood had been squirted onto surfaces saw her surreptitiously move a table with for reports ot mysterious occurrences, rather than having spurted from them as her foot. Investigator James Randi char­ giving the distinct impression that he the residents had asserted. (See Joe acterized her at the time as a disturbed believed whatever was asserted was Nickell, Entities, Amherst, N.Y.: teenager. A decade later Tina Resch Boyer true—or at least suitable for taunting Prometheus Books, 1995, 92-97.) would be sentenced to life imprisonment members of the scientific "priestcraft." In describing "The Aerial Fakir," the for the murder of her three-year-old Thus Fort is the poster boy for the limits book boasts that Subbayah Pullavar daughter. (SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Spring of anecdotal evidence, and his armchair once levitated and "remained horizontal 1985, 221-235; March/April 1995, 3.) mystery-mongering attitude is contin­ in the air for about four minutes." An The mysteriously swirled patterns in ued by Adam Sisman who selected and accompanying photograph documents southwest English grain fields known as edited the present collection of talcs. the feat (166-167). Unfortunately, in crop circles are discussed from various Some items in the collection are non- stage magician's parlance the effect was perspectives, but the evidence for hoax­ mysteries, like a runaway wallaby, and not an apparent levitation but only a sus­ ing gets short shrift: "Numerous attempts others arc merely Ripleyesque: a six- pension, since one hand rested on a rod by crusading skeptics and newspaper­ legged lamb (10), identical twins who wrapped in cloth. The secret of such sus­ men," states the book, "have failed gave birth on the same day (20), and a pensions—consistent with the details of abysmally to mimic the crop circle phe­ stationers shop named Reid & Wright Pullavar's performance—is illustrated in nomenon, which is widely perceived as a (22). There is even some genuine skepti­ conjuring texts (like Walter Gibson's hoax." The book concludes: "If it usome cism, such as with the reports of "wolf Secrets of Magic, New York: Grosset & kind of practical joke, then the organiza­ children" who are acknowledged as Dunlap, 1967, 81-83). (For another tion behind it outstrips the Mafia, KGB probably mentally and physically handi­ "levitation" stunt, see SKEPTICAL and Illuminati combined" (110). capped (102). A token handful of INQUIRER, Fall/Winter 1977, 7-9.) Actually, in 1991 "two jovial con men in hoaxes and urban legends—that is, ones In a section called "Psychic Powers," their sixties" admitted they had launched actually recognized as such—are also readers are told that "after cutlery-bend­ and nurtured the hoax and been followed included (188-191). ing Yuri [sic] Geller's first British broad­ by many others in a bandwagon or copy­ But numerous alleged paranormal cast on 23 November 1973, children cat effect. The hoaxers quickly fooled cir­ mysteries touted in the book are bogus. began to discover their own paranormal cle "experts" who declared bogus patterns For example, the front cover portrays powers." They could bend metal objects authentic. (Joe Nickell and John F. "Psychic Katie," with copper foil appar­ like nails and keys, and perform other Fischer, "The Crop-circle Phenomenon: ently having materialized on her body. feats, "seemingly just by thinking hard" An Investigative Report," SKEPTICAL Yet this, along with one of Katie's other (170). A photo in physicist John Taylor's INQUIRER, Winter 1992, 136-149.) feats—producing glass gems from her 1975 book Superminds showed a seven- As these examples show, many of the eye—was easily duplicated by CSICOP year-old boy's supposed psychokineti- claims in Incredible Stories do not with­ investigators for an October 1990 cally bent fork and spoon. Alas, as stand scrutiny. In addition, numerous episode of the Unsolved Mysteries televi­ reported by Martin Gardner in the tales lack specific names, places, dates, sion program. (Slow-motion study of Winter 1979-80 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, or source citations that might make fur­ the gem feat showed the object was the little psychokinetic marvels were ther investigation possible. Such apparently hidden between her fingers. actually exhibiting "kindergarten princi­ accounts also lack credibility as do sev­ See SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, May/June ples of deception." Observed secretly, eral that rely on absurd tabloid sources 1997, 16-17.) the children simply bent the metal in like Weekly World News. Regarding Atlanta's 1987 "House of the usual way. A boy used both hands to And then there are the outrageous Blood" mystery, the Fortean book relates bend a spoon, while a little girl placed assertions, like the unqualified statement how the elderly residents had described the end of a rod under her foot. that in 1951 Mary Reeser of St. blood springing from the floor "like a Under "Poltergeists" the Forteans Petersburg, Florida, "spontaneously sprinkler" and claims that it had appeared include the 1984 case of Tina Resch, the combusted." Noting "evidence of the "in narrow spaces virtually impossible for Columbus, Ohio, fourteen-year-old who extraordinarily fierce heat, inexplicably

54 January/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER BOOK REVIEWS

contained," the book offers a dubious stuffed chair she sat in and her own con­ The Forteans must know that it takes suggestion that there might have been a siderable body fat obviously contributed little effort to launch an incredible claim connection with "an intense geomag­ to the destruction, and the fact that the while serious, prolonged investigation netic storm" (57). But as the Forteans floor and walls of her efficiency apart­ may be required to get to the bottom of a could have learned from the Summer ment were made of concrete doubtless mystery. While there arc legitimate enig­ 1987 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Mrs. Reeser's limited the fire's spread. By leaving out mas and they should not be dismissed death was not so mysterious. She was last such details, Incredible Stories shows the out of hand, Forteans have a responsibil­ seen smoking a cigarette after having bias it accuses scientists of and under­ ity not to make frivolous claims. Like the taken sleeping pills, and thus hers was an mines Fortean arguments against the sci­ boy who cried wolf, they may find them­ accident waiting to happen. The large entific method. selves without credibility. O

NEW BOOKS

Dumbth: The Lost Art of based on this new work by ments in and popular attacks on contempo­ Thinking. Steve Allen. philosopher and CSICOP rary evolution. Intended as a direct challenge Prometheus Books, 59 John Fellow Haack appears in this to all who would push creationism as a credi­ Glenn Drive, Amherst, NY issue on page 47. ble alternative to scientific evolution. 14228-2197. 1998. ISBN 1- 57392-237-4. 445 pp. Paperback, $18.95. A wel­ Taking Darwin Seriously. Editor's Choice Science Books: come new edition of this Michael Ruse. Prometheus passionate attack on unrea­ Books. 59 John Glenn This New Ocean: The Story of the First son and guide to life-long Drive, Amherst N.Y. 14228- Space Age. William E. Burrows. Random learning and thinking by the 2197. 1998. ISBN 1-57392- House, Inc.. New York. 1998. ISBN 0-679- creative author, entertainer, 242-0. 232 pp. Paperback, 44521-8. 723 pp. Hardcover, $34.95. polymath, and CSICOP SI8.95. The original edition Fellow. Originally written of this book, written by a "out of what had become lit­ University of Guelph profes­ What Remains To Be Discovered: Mapping erally daily frustration with sor of philosophy and zool­ the Secrets of the Universe, the Origins of the degree of goofola think­ ogy, established a naturalistic Life, and the Future of the Human Race. John Maddox. Free Press/Simon & Schuster, ing, speech, and behavior that had become approach to our understanding of life's major New York. 1998. ISBN 0-684-82292-X. 434 so dominant," Allen says the demand for a problems through the application of evolu­ pp. Hardcover, $26. freshened-up edition is "a testimonial to the tionary biology. This new edition updates the ever-growing seriousness of the problem it original with a new preface and a final chap­ addresses." About half of the book consists ter that addresses the most recent develop­ —Kendrick Frazier of his 101 "Ways to Think Better," with thoughtful discussions of each. (No. I: "Decide that in the future you will reason more effectively." No. 8: "Recognize that PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS from page 19 you have personal prejudices." No. 22: "Know that reason need not be the enemy of course, struck Bell's already-paranoid audience like a bolt of lightning. Immediately emotion." No. 58: "Familiarize yourself with rumors began circulating that Bell, who lives in Pahrump, Nevada, not far from the the commonly accepted scientific view of the universe." No. 68: "Understand the differ­ top-secret Area 51, had been silenced by sinister forces to keep him from revealing any ence between fact and opinion." No. 93: more secrets about "earth-changes," UFOs, or something even more dreadful. Nye "Get in the habit of using an encyclopedia." County Sheriff Wade Liesekc Jr., worried that Bell might be in danger, stopped by No. 99: "Be humble when consulting with Bell's home soon after the announcement and reported that the radio celebrity was memory.") "fine" and "not in danger." As for what the "terrible event" might be, Sheriff Nye said he was not at liberty to disclose it. One account said that a being named "Single Seven" who claimed to be a time Manifesto of a Passionate Moderate. Susan traveller from the year 2063 (who earlier had been interviewed on Art's show) had Haack. Hie University of Chicago Press, intervened with Bell to attempt to avert a catastrophe that otherwise would have 5801 South Ellis Avenue. Chicago, IL 60637. struck him. The story gained widespread credence until Bell himself came out of 1998. ISBN 0-226-31136-8. 212 pp. seclusion to deny it. Paperback, S22.50. Relativism, multicultural- Just two weeks later on October 28. Bell returned to the airwaves, explaining little ism, feminism, affirmative anion, pragma­ tisms old and new. science, literature, the beyond that "the situation has improved to some degree," and that "my network stepped future of the academy and of philosophy itself in and helped me." And now the nonstop blather about aliens, conspiracies, and immi­ all come under Haack's scrutiny: A chapter nent catastrophes continues six nights a week, to audiences larger than ever. O

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 1999 55 ARTICLES OF NOTE

Acocclla, Joan. "The Politics of Hysteria." systems for dealing with the apparent con­ Spring 1997. Hayward reviews all alleged The New Yorker, April 6, 1998, pp. 64-79. tradictions between their faith and science. cases of ritual child abuse in Britain during Over the past twenty years, multiple-person­ The authors argue that teaching biology as a the eighties, including cases in which social ality disorder has been used to explain the method of inquiry and addressing the diffi­ workers made dawn raids, taking children behavior of thousands of American women. culties religious students may face would away from their parents for months at a How was it allowed to happen? This article is help the students embrace the material. time. He quotes a government report that a penetrating examination of the dynamics found no cases of Satanic abuse (with a reli­ of claims about multiple personality disor­ Gardner, Martin. "A Quarter-Century of gious objective), but three cases of ritual der. Shows how the rise of neurology, the fad Recreational Mathematics." Scientific abuse (in which pseudo-occult practices were for spiritualism, and the cult of the irrational American, August 1998, pp. 68-75. The used to attract or threaten victims). all contributed, along with the campaign for author of Scientific American's column women's rights and the child-protection "Mathematical Games" from 1956 to 1981 Hilpern, Kate. "A Question of Faith." movement of the 1970s, to the recovered- (and Si's "Notes of a Fringe-Watcher" from (London) Times Magazine. April 25, 1998. memory movement. Both that movement 1983 to present) recounts twenty-five years pp. 86-88. There are 20,000 spiritual healers and multiple-personality disorder were of amusing puzzles and serious discoveries. at work in Britain. The article discusses Lynn enthusiastically supported by the media. "It Gardner fans will love this look back on his Rose and two of her clients, one of whom was less a conspiracy theory than a reflex of column, which delighted, entertained, and found relief from multiple sclerosis symp­ our current politics." educated so many people. toms, while the other found none for back problems. Baker, Robert A., "A View of Hypnosis." Garven, Sena, et al. "More than The Harvard Menial Health Letter, Feb. Suggestion: The Effect of Interviewing Levy, David H. "How to Make Sense Out 1998. pp. 5-6. A clear, brief discussion of Techniques From the McMartin Preschool of Science." Parade Magazine. Sept. 20. what hypnosis is and is not. Says Baker: Cast." Journal of Applied Psychology. 83 (3): 1998, p. 10. The noted astronomy writer "The concepts of hypnotic trance, somnam­ 347-359, June 1998. Several articles have (and co-discoverer of the famous Jupiter- bulism, and dissociation are unnecessary: no pointed out poor interviewing techniques in impacting Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9) David unusual state of consciousness is involved." the investigation of alleged sexual abuse at Levy offers ways to improve your under­ McMartin Preschool. Garven and associates standing of oftcn-times confusing announce­ demonstrate that these techniques (sugges­ Bardeen, Marjorie (... and Leon M. ments of breakthroughs or discoveries that tive questions, telling what other people have Lederman. "Coherence in Science you later hear were inaccurate or wrong. said, positive and negative reinforcements, Education." Sctenet. 281: 178-179, July 10, "Science is too important, too interesting, asked-and-answercd, and inviting specula­ 1998. Policy Forum essay calls for a three- and too much fun not to be communicated tion) increased false accusations in year, coherent, integrated science sequence accurately, without misleading exaggeration preschoolers by 70 percent compared to sim­ following a more natural hierarchy than is in a way that we can all understand." ply asking suggestive questions. taught now in almost all schools. Based on a realization that chemistry is really a prerequi­ Lilienfeld, Scott ().. and Elizabeth F. site for biology and physics a prerequisite for Gierlowski-Kordesch, Elizabeth. "Discov­ Loftus. "Repressed Memories and World chemistry, the authors propose a coherent ered: Sodom and Gomorrah! A video War II. Some Cautionary Notes." sequence: Science I (focused on physics), (reviewed)." Biblical Archeological Review. 24 Professional Psychology: Research and Practice, Science II (focused on chemistry), and (5): 60-62, September/October 1998. The 1998. 29(5): 471-475. A 1997 article by Science III (focused on biology)- Teaching editors of BAR, which is not a religious mag­ B.P. Karon and A.J. Widner argued that clin­ the process of science (including "the crucial azine, explain that readers often ask about the ical data derived from WWII veterans pro­ role of skepticism") would be integrated into reliability of Ron Wyatt, who claims to have vide unambiguous evidence for the existence the curriculum, as would some experience of discovered Noah's Ark, the Ark of the of repressed and recovered memories. real-world interdisciplinary problems. Covenant, etc. They invited Gierlowski- Lilienfeld and Loftus respond that research Kordesch, a geologist, to review Wyatt's 1992 evidence for the existence of repression is Cohen, Hal. "God Only Knows." Lingua video about Sodom and Gomorrah. She- much weaker than asserted by Karon and Franca. 8 (5): 59-62, July/August 1998. A begins by listing the warning signs of junk Widner, the use of hypnosis and sodium skeptical look at the Bible codes from the science and goes on to give natural explana­ pentathol to recover memories is problem­ atic, and the case study presented is difficult viewpoint of mathematicians who have been tions for Wyatt's supernatural claims. to interpret. They conclude, "Although fur­ reluctant to debate what one called "such ther examination of case reports from WWII puerile stupidities." Hayward, James. "The Clonmel 'Fairy' veterans is clearly warranted, it would be pre­ Murder (1895)." The Criminologist. 21 (4): mature to conclude that these reports con­ 231-239, Winter 1997. In nineteenth- Daghler, Zoubeida, R. and Saouma firm the existence of repressed and recovered century Ireland a group of people killed a Boujaoude. "Scientific Views and memories." Religious Beliefs of College Students: The woman in an attempt to force out the fairy Case of Biological Evolution." Journal of they believed had replaced her. This is simi­ lar to the exorcism deaths that occur occa­ Research in Science Teaching, 34 (5): MacKenzie, Debora. "A Cure for sionally today. 429-445, May 1997. A class of Lebanese Quacks." New Scientist, Aug. 22, 1998. pp. biology students (mostly Christian and 18-19. Good report on the case in southern Muslim) were polled on their views on evo­ Hayward, James. "Ritual Abuse: Trial and Italy in which a judge decreed that the coun­ lution and religion. They showed various Error." The Criminologist. 21 (1) 3-25. try's health service must pay for cancer

56 January/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER patients to take an expensive untested rem­ of two powerful constituencies. This article research was a scientific dead end. edy—unanimously rejected by scientists— focuses on the Scopes trial, which has pro­ promoted by a retired physiologist. foundly influenced the legislation, court Oritz de Montellano, Bernard, et al. Subsequent government-sponsored trials in decisions, and local actions involving the cre­ "They Were NOT Here Before Columbus: July showed that none of the 134 patients ation/evolution controversy during the past Afrocentric Hyperdifussionism in the improved in two months of treatment. Half seventy-five years. 1990s." Ethnohistory. 44 (2): 199-234, sustained serious side effects, and three-quar­ Spring 1997. A detailed critique of ters became more ill and died. Public sup­ Mover, Albert. "Simon Newcomb: Afrocentric arguments that Black Egyptians port has since fallen and the hysteria has Astronomer with an Attitude." Scientific influenced or created pre-European culture fallen off a bit. American. October 1998. pp. 88-93. The cel­ in South America. A nine-page bibliography ebrated late-nineteenth century American captures sources on both sides. Magi-da, Arthur J. "The Aish astronomer Simon Newcomb was an early Phenomenon: Targeting Skeptics." popular advocate of science and also pushed Owen, C, C. Tarantello, J. Jones, and C. Moment. 23 (3): 52-57, 72-72. 78-82. A for broad social and cultural reforms based on Tennant. "Lunar Cycles and Violent report on Aish Ha Borah's Discovery the use of scientific method. He called for dif­ Behavior." Australian and New Zealand Seminars, which rely heavily on "Bible ferentiating scientific knowledge from reli­ Journal of Psychiatry, 1998, 32(4): 496-499. gious belief. Although skeptical of ESP, men­ Codes." More than 25,000 Jews, including Study shows that, contrary to hospital per­ tal telepathy, and other alleged paranormal Kirk Douglas and Steven Spielberg, have sonnel's impressions, the lunar cycle has no phenomena, Newcomb felt that scientists attended these sessions that encourage influence at all on the incidence of violent should at least review the evidence for the knowledgeable Judaism (according to the purported effects and, as a result, at William sponsors) or promote Orthodox Judaism James's behest became in the mid-1880s the (according to detractors). first president of the newly formed American Wolper, Joanna. "She Quits Job Over Society for Psychical Research. His objective Aliens, Elvis, and Love Nest Stories." Moore, Randy. "Creationism in the was to sort out what, if anything, was scientif­ Editor and Publisher. April 18, 1998. pp. United States 1. Banning Evolution From ically defensible from what must be debunked 66-68. Award-winning reporter Terry the Classroom." American Biology Teacher as dangerous fraud. He threw himself into the Raskyn spent three years as the "Journalism 60 (7): 486-506. September 1998. First of a research, and what he found hardened his Spin Doctor" for the Globe tabloid newspa­ series of articles by a University of Louisville skepticism. Through his final years he was per. She quit over the paper's coverage of biology professor presenting a legal-history convinced, and hoped to convince others, Princess Diana's dcarh. of the evolution/crcationism controversy, that on methodological grounds, psychical highlighting the issues involved in this dash —Kcndrick Frazier and Robert Lopresti SCIENCE BEST SELLERS Top Ten Best Sellers in San Francisco

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By arrangement with New Scientist magazine. September 1998. See Planet Science at http^/newsclentist.- for more reviews. Some books also available at the Planet Science Shop.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER lanuary/Februir, 1999 57 FORUM

Alternative Medicine The Risks of Untested and Unregulated Remedies

MARCIA ANGELL, M.D. AND JEROME P. KASSIRER, M.D.

hat is there about alternative scientifically tested and its advocates cacy of an alternative treatment. medicine that sets it apart largely deny the need for such testing. (11,12,13,14) Wfrom ordinary medicine? By testing, we mean the marshaling of It might be argued that conventional The term refers to a remarkably hetero­ rigorous evidence of safety and efficacy, medicine relies on anecdotes, too, some geneous group of theories and prac­ as required by the Food and Drug of which are published as case reports in tices—as disparate as homeopathy, Administration (FDA) for the approval peer-reviewed journals. But these case therapeutic touch, imagery, and herbal of drugs and by the best peer-reviewed reports differ from the anecdotes of medicine. What unites them? Eisenberg medical journals for the publication ol alternative medicine. They describe a CI al. defined alternative medicine (now research reports. Of course, many treat­ well-documented new finding in a often called complementary medicine) ments used in conventional medicine defined setting. If, for example, the as "medical interventions not taught have not been rigorously tested, either, Journal were to receive a paper describ­ widely at U.S. medical schools or gener­ but the scientific community generally ing a patient's recovery from cancer of ally available at U.S. hospitals." (1) That acknowledges that this is a failing that the pancreas after he had ingested a is not a very satisfactory definition, needs to be remedied. Many advocates rhubarb diet, we would require docu­ especially since many alternative reme­ of alternative medicine, in contrast, mentation of the disease and its extent, dies have recently found their way into believe the scientific method is simply we would ask about other, similar the medical mainstream. Medical not applicable to their remedies. They patients who did not recover after eating schools teach alternative medicine, hos­ rely instead on anecdotes and theories. rhubarb, and we might suggest trying pitals and health maintenance organiza­ In 1992, Congress established within the diet on other patients. If the answers tions offer it, (2) and laws in some states the National Institutes of Health an to these and other questions were satis­ require health plans to cover it. (3) It Office of Alternative Medicine to evalu­ factory, we might publish a case also constitutes a huge and rapidly ate alternative remedies. So far, the report—not to announce a remedy, but growing industry, in which major phar­ results have been disappointing. For only to suggest a hypothesis that should maceutical companies are now partici­ example, of the 30 research grants the be tested in a proper clinical trial. In pating. (4) office awarded in 1993, 28 have resulted contrast, anecdotes about alternative What most sets alternative medicine in "final reports" (abstracts) that arc remedies (usually published in books apart, in our view, is that it has not been listed in the office's public on-line data and magazines for the public) have no base. (5) But a Medline search almost six such documentation and are considered Marcia Angell is executive editor and years after the grants were awarded sufficient in themselves as support for Jerome P Kassirer is editor of The New revealed that only 9 of the 28 resulted in therapeutic claims. England Journal of Medicine. This article published papers. Five were in 2 journals Alternative medicine also distin­ appeared as an editorial in the The New not included among the 3,500 journal guishes itself by an ideology that largely England Journal of Medicine September titles in the Countway Library of ignores biologic mechanisms, often dis­ 17. 1998, Volume 339, Number 12, and Medicine's collection. (6,7,8,9,10) Of parages modern science, and relies on is reprinted by permission. Copyright © the other four studies, none was a con­ what are purported to be ancient prac­ 1998 by the Massachusetts Medical Society. trolled clinical trial that would allow any tices and natural remedies (which are All rights reserved. conclusions to be drawn about the effi­ seen as somehow being simultaneously

58 January/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER more potent and less toxic than conven­ remedies. In particular, the evolution of paradox is outside the scope of this edi­ tional medicine). Accordingly, herbs or the randomized, controlled clinical trial torial, but it is probably in part a matter mixtures of herbs are considered superior enabled researchers to study with preci­ of disillusionment with the often hur­ to the active compounds isolated in the sion the safety, efficacy, and dose effects ried and impersonal care delivered by laboratory. And healing methods such as of proposed treatments and the indica­ conventional physicians, as well as the homeopathy and therapeutic touch are tions for them. No longer do we have to harsh treatments that may be necessary fervently promoted despite not only the rely on trial and error and anecdotes. We for life-threatening diseases. lack of good clinical evidence of effec­ have learned to ask for and expect statis­ Fortunately, most untested herbal tiveness, but the presence of a rationale tically reliable evidence before accepting remedies arc probably harmless. In addi­ that violates fundamental scientific conclusions about remedies. Without tion, they seem to be used primarily by laws—surely a circumstance that such evidence, the FDA will not permit people who are healthy and believe the requires more, rather than less, evidence. a drug to be marketed. remedies will help them stay that way, or Of all forms of alternative treatment, the most common is herbal medicine. Many advocates of alternative medicine (15) Until the 20th century, most reme­ dies were botanicals, a few of which believe the scientific method is simply not were found through trial and error to be applicable to their remedies. They rely instead on helpful. For example, purple foxglove was found to be helpful for dropsy, the anecdotes and theories. opium poppy for pain, cough, and diar­ rhea, and cinchona bark for fever. But The results of these advances have by people who have common, relatively therapeutic successes with botanicals been spectacular. As examples, we now minor problems, such as backache or came at great human cost. The indica­ know that treatment with aspirin, fatigue. (I) Most such people would tions for using a given botanical were ill heparin, thrombolytic agents, and beta- probably seek out conventional doctors defined, dosage was arbitrary because adrenergic blockers greatly reduces mor­ if they had indications of serious disease, the concentrations of the active ingredi­ tality from myocardial infarction; a com­ such as crushing chest pain, a mass in ent were unknown, and all manner of bination of nucleoside analogues and a the breast, or blood in the urine. Still, contaminants were often present. More protease inhibitor can stave off the onset uncertainty about whether symptoms important, many of the remedies simply of AIDS in people with human immun- are serious could result in a harmful did not work, and some were harmful or odefiency virus infection; antibiotics delay in getting treatment that has been even deadly. The only way to separate heal peptic ulcers; and a cocktail of cyto­ proved effective. And some people may the beneficial from the useless or haz­ toxic drugs can cure most cases of child­ embrace alternative medicine exclu­ ardous was through anecdotes relayed hood leukemia. Also in this century, we sively, putting themselves in great dan­ mainly by word of mouth. have developed and tested vaccines ger. In this issue of the Journal, Coppes All that began to change in the 20th against a great many infectious scourges, et al. describe two such instances. (16) century as a result of rapid advances in including measles, poliomyelitis, pertus­ Also in this issue, we see that there- medical science. The emergence of sis, diphtheria, hepatitis B, some forms are risks of alternative medicine in addi­ sophisticated chemical and pharmaco­ of meningitis, and pneumococcal pneu­ tion to that of failing to receive effective logic methods meant that we could monia, and we have a vast arsenal of treatment. Slifman and her colleagues identify and purify the active ingredi­ efFectivc antibiotics for many others. In report a case of digitalis toxicity in a ents in botanicals and study them. less than a century, life expectancy in the young woman who had ingested a cont­ Digitalis was extracted from the purple United States has increased by three aminated herbal concoction. (17) Ko foxglove, morphine from the opium decades, in part because of better sanita­ reports finding widespread inconsisten­ poppy, and quinine from cinchona bark. tion and living standards, but in large cies and adulterations in his analysis of Furthermore, once the chemistry was part because of advances in medicine Asian patent medicines. (18) LoVecchio understood, it was possible to synthesize realized through rigorous testing. Other et al. report on a patient who suffered related molecules with more desirable countries lagged behind, but as scientific central nervous system depression after properties. For example, penicillin was medicine became universal, all countries ingesting a substance sold in health-food fortuitously discovered when pcnicil- affluent enough to afford it saw the stores as a growth hormone stimulator, lium mold contaminated some bacterial same benefits. (19) and Beigel and colleagues describe cultures. Isolating and characterizing it Now, with the increased interest in the puzzling clinical course of a patient permitted the synthesis of a wide variety alternative medicine, we see a reversion in whom lead poisoning developed after of related antibiotics with different spec- to irrational approaches to medical prac­ he took an Indian herbal remedy for his trums of activity. tice, even while scientific medicine is diabetes. (20) These are without doubt In addition, powerful epidemiologic making some of its most dramatic simply examples of what will be a tools were developed for testing potential advances. Exploring the reasons for this rapidly growing problem.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Januiry/Fefiru*,, 1999 59 What about the FDA? Shouldn't it be health," and horse-chestnut seed extract Thcr Health Med 1997;3(4):57-66. 9. Walker SR, Tonigan JS. Miller WR, Corner S. monitoring the safety and efficacy of to "promote... leg vein health." Anyone Kahlich L Intercessory prayer in the treatment these remedies? Not any longer, accord­ can walk into a health-food store and of alcohol abuse and dependence: a pilot ing to the U.S. Congress. In response to unwittingly buy PC-SPES with investigation. Alternative Thcr Health Med 1997;3(6):79-86. the lobbying efforts of the multibillion- unknown amounts of estrogenic activ­ 10. Richardson MA. Post-White J. Grimm EA. dollar "dietary supplement" industry, ity, plantain laced with digitalis, or Moye LA. Singletary SE, Justice B. Coping, Congress in 1994 exempted their prod­ Indian herbs contaminated with heavy life attitudes, and immune responses to ucts from FDA regulation. (21,22) metals. Caveat emptor. The FDA can imagery and group support after breast cancel treatment. Alternative Thcr Health Med (Homeopathic remedies have been intervene only after the fact, when it is !997;3(5):62-70. exempted since 1938. (23)) Since then, shown that a product is harmful. (28) 11. Reid SA, Duke LM. Allen JB. Resting frontal these products have flooded the market, It is time for the scientific commu­ electroencephalographs asymmetry in depres­ sion: inconsistencies suggest the need to iden­ subject only to the scruples of their nity to stop giving alternative medicine tify mediating factors. Psychophysiology manufacturers. They may contain the a free ride. There cannot be two kinds of 1998;35(4):389-404. substances listed on the label in the medicine— conventional and alterna­ 12. Crawford HJ. Knebel T, Kaplan L, et al. Hypnotic analgesia. 1. Somatosensory event- amounts claimed, but they need not, tive. There is only medicine that has related potential changes to noxious stimuli and there is no one to prevent their sale been adequately tested and medicine and 2. Transfer learning to reduce chronic low if they don't. In analyses of ginseng that has not, medicine that works and back pain. Int J Clin Exp Hypn 1998:46:92- 132. products, for example, the amount of medicine that may or may not work. 13. Shannahoff-Khalsa DS, Beckett LR. Clinical the active ingredient in each pill varied Once a treatment has been tested rigor­ case report: efficacy of yogic techniques in the by as much as a factor of 10 among ously, it no longer matters whether it treatment of obsessive compulsive disorders. brands that were labeled as containing IntJNeurosci 1996;85:1-17. was considered alternative at the outset. 14. Prasad KN, Hernandez C. Edwards-Prasad J. the same amount. (24) Some brands If it is found to be reasonably safe and Nelson J, Borus T, Robinson WA. contained none at all. (25) effective, it will be accepted. But asser­ Modification of the effect of tamoxifen, cis- platin, DTIC, and interfcron-(alpha)2b on Herbal remedies may also be sold tions, speculation, and testimonials do human melanoma cells in culture by a mixture without any knowledge of their mecha­ not substitute for evidence. Alternative of vitamins. Nutr Cancer 1994;22:233-45. nism of action. In this issue of the treatments should be subjected to scien­ 15. Brody J E. Alternative medicine makes inroads, but watch out for curves. New York Times. Journal, DiPaola and his colleagues tific testing no less rigorous than that April 28, I998:F7. report that the herbal mixture called required for conventional treatments. 16. Coppes MJ. Anderson RA. Egeler RM. Wolff PC-SPES (PC for prostate cancer, and Marcia Angell, M.D. JEA. Alternative therapies lor the ttcatment of childhood cancer. N Engl J Med spes the Latin for "hope") has substan­ Jerome P. Kassirer, M.D. 1998;339:846-7. tial estrogenic activity. (26) Yet this sub­ 17. Slifman NR. Obermeyer WR. Aloi BK, et al. stance is promoted as bolstering the References Contamination ot botanical dietary supple­ immune system in patients with ments by Digitalis lanata. N Engl J Med 1. Eisenberg DM. Kessler RC, Foster C, Norlock 1998;339:806-11. prostate cancer that is refractory to treat­ FE. Calkins DR, Delbanco TL. 18. Ko RJ. Adulterants in Asian patent medicines. ment with estrogen. (27) Many men Unconventional medicine in the United N Engl J Med 1998:339:847. taking PC-SPES have thus received States— ptevalcncc, costs, and patterns of use. 19. LoVecchio F, Curry SC, Bagnasco T. N Engl J Med 1993;328:246-52. Butyrolactonc-induced central nervous system varying amounts of hormonal treatment 2. Spiegel D. Stroud P, Fyfe A. Complementary depression aftct ingestion of RencwTrient, a without knowing it, some in addition to medicine. West J Med 1998.168:241-7. "dietary supplement." N Engl J Med the estrogen treatments given to them 3. Cooper RA. Stolid SJ. Trends in the education 1998;339:847-8. and practice of alternative medicine clinicians. 20. Beigel Y, Ostfeld I. Schoenfeld N. A leading by their conventional physicians. Health AIT (Millwood) l996;15(3):226-38. question. N Engl J Med 1998;339:827-30. The only legal requirement in the 4. Canedy D. Real medicine or medicine show? 21. Wittes B. FDA exemption sought for self-help sale of such products is that they not be Growth of herbal remedy sales raises issues medicines. The Recorder. October 7, 1994:2. about value. New York Times. July 23. 22. Dietary Supplement Health and Education promoted as preventing or treating dis­ I99&D1. Act of 1994. (Public Law 103-417.) ease. (28) To comply with that stipula­ 5. National Institutes of Health, Office of 23. Wagner MW. Is homeopathy 'new science' or tion, their labeling has risen to an art Alternative Medicine. Grant award and 'new age'? Sci Rev Alternative Med research data. Bethesda, Md.: Office of 1997;1 (1):7-12. form of doublespeak (witness the name Alternative Medicine. (See: http://altmcd. 24. Herbal roulette. Consumer Rcporrs. PC-SPES). Not only are they sold under od.nih.gov/oam/rcscarch/grants.) November 1995:698. the euphemistic rubric "dietary supple­ 6. Chou CK. McDougall JA, Ahn C. Vora N. 25. Cui J. Garle M. Eneroth P. Bjorkhem I. What Electrochemical treatment of mouse and rat do commercial ginseng preparations contain? ments," but also the medical uses for fibrosarcomas with direct current. Lancet 1994:344:134. which they are sold are merely insinu­ Bioelectromagnetics 1997;18(l):14-24. 26. DiPaola RS. Zhang H. Lambert GH. et al. ated. Nevertheless, it is clear what is 7. Olson M. Snead N. LaVia M, Virella G. Clinical and biologic activity of an estrogenic Bonadonna R. Michel Y. Stress-induced herbal combination (PC-SPES) in prostate meant. Shark cartilage (priced in a local immunosuppression and therapeutic touch- cancer. N Engl J Med 1998:339:785-91. drugstore at more than S3 for a day's Alternative Thcr Health Med l997;3(2):68-74. 27. Anticancer botanicals that work supporrivciy dose) is promoted on its label "to main­ 8. Shaffer HJ. LaSalvia TA, Stein JP. Comparing with chemotherapy: PCSpcs. Alternative Hatha yoga with dynamic group psychotherapy tain proper bone and joint function." Medicine Digest. November 1997:84-5. for enhancing methadone maintenance treat­ 28. Love LA. The MedWatch Program. Clin saw palmetto to "promote prostate ment: a randomized clinical trial. Alternative Toxicol 1998;36:263-7. O

60 january/Febtuary 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Are Coincidences statement is incorrect. Lincoln did not have post-birth lethal mutation. More important, a secretary named Kennedy it seems likely that most of these nonfunc­ Remarkable? tional DNA sequences were eliminated from David Simon the pre-genome pool at the time the chem­ Bruce Martin's excellent article Toronto, Canada istry of pre-biology was evolving into biol­ "Coincidences: Remarkable or Random?" ogy. There is also evidence that certain (September/October 1998) reminds me of sequences of DNA bases are chemically more an anecdote in Carl Sagan's The Demon- Bruce Martin responds: probable than others. It is the invalid con­ Haunted World (1996, p. 214n), concerning cept of randomness that the anti-evolution­ the physicist Enrico Fermi. After Fermi had For the reason indicated by Simon, the presi­ ists use to argue that we could not be what joined the Manhattan Project, he heard some dential secretary comparison was not included we are by a random process. Certainly, nat­ military officers refer to someone as a "great in my article. While president Kennedys secre­ ural selection is not random. general." Fermi asked them to define this tary was Evelyn Lincoln, president Lincoln's secretary was in fact John Nicolay. term. After discussion, they decided that a John E. Hendrix great general was one who had won at least Professor, Plant Physiology five consecutive battles. Colorado State University Only a few percent of generals, they said, Numerological Fort Collins, Colo. achieve greatness. Clearly they implied that winning five consecutive battles was so Opportunity? improbable (like the coincidences discussed by Bruce Mai tin) that only an extraordinar­ What a golden opportunity you missed! Calculated Risks? ily gifted general could achieve it. When Underwood Dudley's article on Fermi responded by asking them to numerology and the preponderance of "57" The main point of K. C. Cole's "Calculated imagine that there are no great generals, that in American history (September/October) Risks" (SI September/October 1998) is cor­ all armies are equally matched, and that a was "continued on page 59" it would have rect; society's assessments of risks are often general's chance of winning a battle is always been a trivial effort in page makeup to have unrealistic. The article, however, contains one out of rwo. It follows that his chance of placed the continuation text a mere rwo some illustrations that are questionable. It winning five consecutive battles is 1 in 2\ or pago eatlier. suggests that marriage is to be encouraged 1/32, about 3 percent. How many would have noticed is because it promotes health, but it is more "You would expect a few percent of unknowable, but those who did would most plausible to argue that causation goes the American generals to win five consecutive certainly have felt a little frisson of the power other way: people who are healthy are usu­ battles—purely by chance. Now, has any of of "coincidence" when they got to the bot­ ally more attractive in appearance and per­ them won ten consecutive battles . . . ?" tom of page 31. sonality than those who are not, and are therefore more likely to be married. Robert Stanton John D. Stackpole No doubt there are more deaths from sui­ Professor of English Emeritus Fort Washington, Md. cide than from asbestos, but it is not clear University of Washington how society could "go after" suicide. Seattle, Wash. Antidepressant drugs are available to those I enjoyed the article about numerology, but who want them. For people who are termi­ was disappointed it was continued on page nally ill and living in misery, suicide can be Your readers might like to wonder why peo­ 59 instead of 57. What a missed opportunity! an entirely rational choice. I would not care ple pay so much attention to the coinci­ to see the creation of a government agency dences surrounding the Lincoln-Kennedy Mark Rivkin empowered to interfere with what should be assassinations but seemingly ignore those Tucker, Ga. a personal and private decision. surrounding the Garfield-McKinley assassi­ More prenatal care for women belonging nations: to the "underclass" would probably be much Both were Ohio Republicans with New Dudley (p.30) finishes the discussion of ran­ less effective than a change of lifestyle. York vice presidents who had been Civil War dom numbers with the indication that the Mothers who use alcohol, crack, or other veterans. Both were assassinated by sequence of bases in our DNA results from a drugs, eat unhealthy diets, and neglect basic non-Wasps. Their reformer vice presidents comparable random process. That is far from hygiene are likely to produce sick or defective Chester Alan Arthur and Theodore true. The DNA we get has some random offspring no matter how many doctors are assigned to them. But it is. admittedly, diffi­ Roosevelt had the same number of letters in components, such as which member of each cult to find ways of changing their behavior. their names. of the twenty-three pair of chromosomes we I suppose the records of any two ran­ receive from each parent (except for the X/Y David A. Shotwcll domly selected presidents would show an pair). But there are many restrictions. Tliey Alpine, Texas awful lot of such coincidences. include: 1) who our parents were and what For those familiar with all those their ancestry was, 2) the mechanism by Lincoln-Kennedy comparisons, the one that which reproductive cells arc formed and says "Lincoln had a secretary named combine, and 3) the nonfunctional possibil­ The otherwise excellent article by K. C. Cole Kennedy and Kennedy had a secretary ities that are usually eliminated before birth conttibutes to the popular innumeracy of named Lincoln" is false. The first part of that occurs, but arc occasionally seen as calling both the arithmetical mean and the

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 1999 61 LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

median the average. Typically, the percentage relieve the public of its "moral obligation" to than understand and do something about of the population below the mean is not outlaw ownership, she writes: "The National the real causes of crime and accidents. She exactly 50 percent. For example, over 90 per­ Rifle Association lobbied successfully to elim­ even implies that the NRA's opposition to cent of Americans have committed less than inate the program at the Centers for Disease the Centers for Disease Control's now- the per capita mean number of murders. Control that keeps track of gun deaths." defunct program for keeping track of gun As a discussion of the psychological fac­ deaths was immoral. Unfortunately she Norman H. Sleep tors underlying the inability or unwillingness doesn't say why the NRA fought against the Department of Geophysics of most people to perform accurate risk CDC program and why the NRA eventually Stanford University assessment, the article was entertaining and prevailed. Stanford, Calif. comprehensive—but it might have been The CDC program was spearheaded by a improved by discussion of a closely related politically motivated minority of gun-hating phenomenon: the conscious exploitation of zealots within the ranks of the CDC. As was I would like to respond to the comment in this well-known statistical "blind spot" for later shown by the NRA, the CDC's express political advocacy. K. C. Cole's article "Calculated Risks" about approach was a classic example of lying with minimizing the risk of asbestos exposure. Her For examples of this, it's hard to beat the statistics, the very illogic SI warns its readers choice of wording "If we put our money on CDC and other organizations that advocate to be on the watch for! Among other things, the real killers, we'd go after suicide, not gun prohibition. The CDC s particular angle the CDC attempted to compare out-of-con- asbestos" does not take into account those is to portray guns as "disease" vectors, like text, automobile accident statistics with the who regularly inhaled high concentrations of plague rats or malarial mosquitoes, casting combined total of all gun deaths, which this substance mostly as a result ol their gun ownership as a "public health" issue. (Of included justifiable self-defense shootings. employment—people who cut and worked course, only privately owned guns are infec­ The NRA prevailed because they were able to with sheets of asbestos, like my father, ship tious; the government has healthy guns.) demonstrate serious flaws in the CDC study. yard workers, and even auto brake mechanics. In fact, gun accidents are at an all-time The CDC study simply didn't hold water. I think what the article meant to convey low. In 1904, there were over 4,000 gun On the contrary, the NRA is deeply con­ was that for the general population, who accidents; 1930: 3,200; 1995: 1,400. cerned with firearm safety and has been for may have brief and minimal exposure to Allowing for increased population and rates over a hundred years. asbestos, it does not represent a significant of gun ownership, this represents an 85 per­ As a member of the NRA and CSICOP, threat. However to imply that there is very cent reduction (National Safety Council, I can say that both organizations have much little danger in asbestos exposure is false and 1995). Gun accidents represent less than 1 in common. Each is a bastion of logic and misleading. percent of all accidental deaths—far behind reason in a world of illogic and unreason. Two years ago my father died a very car accidents, drowning, fire, and even chok­ painful death as a result of his asbestos expo­ ing. So how can gun control advocates jus­ Howard Gantz sure. Would she really want us to use tify their claims? Thousand Oaks, Calif. asbestos like we did twenty years ago? • Conflating accidents and crimes. Most "gun deaths" are suicides or murders. Editor's Note: We received six other letters mak­ Stuart Hirsch ing points similar to those in the previous two Columbia, Md. Deliberate acts, by definition, have nothing to do with safety! Yet ctime statistics are used letters. to show that guns are "unsafe." • Misleading definition of terms. Ads pic­ K. C. Cole's enlightening dissertation on cal­ ture a White toddler, while statistics in the Science, Religion, and culated risk may be a calculated risk for some same ad come from a study where "child" Believing in Weird Things readers, especially for those in areas plagued means under 25, and nearly all the shootings by Lyme disease. She mentioned wearing involve Black, 19- to 24-year-old gang mem­ Wayne Anderson's article "Why Would combat fatigues to, I ptesume, ward off dis­ bers. ease-carrying ticks. Camouflage fatigues are a People Not Believe Weird Things?" • Using percentages when absolute num­ safe haven for these pests. The wildlife people (September/October 1998) made the inter­ bers aren't scary enough, and vice versa. recommend wearing light-colored clothing esting and important point that members of when one frolics through the flora. Then these • Outright lying, knowing the press will our society are generally ill-prepared to dis­ tiny insects can be easily seen and removed, parrot their figures uncritically, (e.g. "14 tinguish berween the relative value of the lowering the risk of contracting Lyme disease. children a day are killed by handgun abuse various sets of religious, pseudoscientific, every day," from Handgun Control and scientific beliefs with which they are James A. Carroll Incorporated [HO]. That would be 5,100, confronted. One reason put forth by the Green Creek, N.J. more than twenty times the actual number). author is that the acceptance of Biblical mir­ acles predisposes society to be credulous Jeffrey Bennett toward contemporary paranormal and pseu­ Liberty, Pa. doscientific claims. In a single paragraph near the end of "Calculated Risks," K. C. Cole unwittingly Unfortunately, in making this point, the reveals her own susceptibility to fallacious author recites a sampling of Biblical miracles argument and twisted statistics. Quoting K. C. Cole implies that the National Rifle in a belittling tone, then pejoratively charac­ Roger Simon's implication that the NRA Association would prefer to put its head in terizes them as "far-fetched," "silly," and wishes to suppress research and thereby the sand with regard to gun deaths rather "unreasonable," and as something which

62 January/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER cies. and national obsessions, Paulos I Rose Mackenberg. Pankratz I Moon, planets, and disasters. FILL IN THE GAPS IN YOUR Branham I Artificial languages. Gardner I The Roswell incident and Project Mogul, Thomas. MAY/JUNE 1995 (vol. 19. no. 3) The belief engine. A/cock / Is skepticism tenable? Be/off p'us Blackmore. Skeptical Inquirer COLLECTION Hyman. Kurtz. A/cock, and Gardner I Mediumship, Stem / Ancient aluminum. Eggert I Crop circle mania • 15% discount on orders of $100 or more • wanes. NickettI I Doug Henning and TM. Gardner I A young Grand Canyon? Heaton. • $6.25 a copy, Vols. 1-18 ($5.00 Vols. 19-22). To order, use reply card insert • MARCH/APRIL 199S (vol. 19. gerously. tortus / Antiscieno . 2) Remembering da Levitt I Feminism nowalienatir n academia. Gross ar NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 1998 (vol. 22. no. 6): Gaps in Morrison I Collective de is: A skeptic's guide. ng women from scienc Ihe fossil record: A case study, Thomas I The Martian Bartholomew I Scientific r ting and achievement Koertge I Lights out': A faxlore phenomeno Panic sixty years later Bartholomew I The perils of in a high school English ci Krai I Skepticism and Brunvand I Critique of evolution study, Larhammar. post-hockery, Susc/o / May the force be with you, politics. Fagin I Courtney 8 's 'Cosmic Voyage' into Krauss I The Mead-Freeman controversy: A fresh look: preposterism. Gardner. JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1995 (vol. 19. no. 1) Wonder and Much ado about nothing The 'Fateful Hoaxing' of skepticism. Sagan I Petting away childish things. MARCH/APRIL 1997 (vol. 21. no. 2): The darkened cos­ Dawkins I The astonishing hypothesis. Crick. I Nuclear Margaret Mead, Cote / Margaret Mead, Derek mos: A tribute to Carl Sagan / Hale-Bopp comet mad­ medicine, Seaborg I Literary science blunders, Gardner Freeman, and the issue of evolution. Shankman I ness plus An astronomer's personal statement on I Air Force report on the Roswell incident/ 1991 CSICOP Second World Skeptics Congress: Science and reason, UFOs. Hale I Biases of everyday |udgment. Gilovich I foibles and fallacies, and doomsdays / Science and the The end of science?. Schick / The Book ot Predictions: Conference. unknowable. Gardner. 15 years later, Tuerkheimer and Vyse I Farrakhan. FALL 1994 (vol 18. n . 5): Empirical evidence for rein- SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1998 (vol. 22. no 5): Special Cabala. Baha'i, and 19. Gardner. tion? / Re ader'ss guide to the ozone controversy / Bigfo Dt eviden ce: Ar e these tracks real? / Why we are Section: What are the chances?, Coincidences: JANUARY/FE8RUARY 1997 (vol. 21, o. 1): The X-Files unmc ved as oceans ebb and flow / Anomalous phe- Remarkable or random?. Martin I Numerology: Comes meets the skeptics: Chris Carter tak s questions / The nome na in Kaz akhst »n /False memories. the revolution. Dudley I Calculated risks. Cole I How to significance of thi millennium, Loevinger I Quantum study weird things. Trocco / Why wotld people not quackery, Stengel / The mysterious placebo, Dodes I SUMMER 1994 (vol 18 i 4.): 'Extraordinary science' believe weird things?. Anderson I Startle, irkle. lit- Bias and Error i children's books. Wiseman and and the strange legacy Synchronicity and the a chetypes / The synthetic mind Temple University?. Gardner. 6): A strategy for saving science, Lederman clashes with the reductit. nist text / Psi in pyschology. JULY/AUGUST 1998 (vol. 22. no. 4): Specia I That's entertainment! TVs UFO eoverup. Report: Mars Global Surveyor photograph: Klass I Scientific consensus and expert tes­ SPRING 1994 (vol 18, no 3): The Anns lence Thre at: 'Face on Mars'. Mornsoi i / Magnetic th timony, Moore I The Dogon people revis­ Th e growth of ant i / The antisoe nee proble ml apy: Plausible attract on. Livingston ited, Ortiz de Montellano I Cosmic :.'. asuring the pre nleno of false memo nes/Bleul Biomagnetic pseudosciei ice and nonsense menagerie, Tyson / Physicist Alan Sokal's ws on inheritai ce of acquired char* cteristics a ncl claims, Sabadell I Catch ng up with eigh- hilarious hoax. Gardner. psi phenomen / Exa mining the sat anic panic A teenth century science ir the evaluation of SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1996 (vol. 20. no. pt sonal perspecti A sociological and histor cal therapeutic touch. Ball and Alexander I spective / Philo sophy and the paran ormal. Pan 2: 5): Shades of meaning: Scienc ! fret pe Paranormal depictions ii \ the media: How Sk •pticism, miracle s, and knowledge. new meti c. Stewart / The first w< Id do they affect what people believe?. Sparks Skeptics Cong / Tr .ditioi al mmediei r WINTER 1994 (vo 18, r o. 2) The new skepticism / I Planting a seed of doubt. Shn 'r/Essiac: and pseudoscience i Chi part Ph losophy and th epara lormal. Part 1: The probl Bill The not-so-remarkable cancer remedy. Beyerstein and Samps l/Cor acy the of 'psi.' / Electrom ignetic field cancer scares / Atta cks McCutcheon / Near-Earth objects Monsters of Doom?, ries and paranoia, Harringtoi / Isa Newto on role-playing games ' Global fortune-telling and Gardner. Gardner. Bible prophecy / Chernikov pattern puzzle. FAIL 1993 (vol. 18. no. 1): 'Perspectives on education MAY/JUNE 1998 (vol 22, no. 3): Special Section: The JULY/AUGUST 1996 (' ol. 20, 4): Traditional medi- in America': Sandia study challenges misconceptions / Aliens Files, Abductii n by aliens or sleep paralysis?, cine and pseudoscience i China. Beyerstei Do 'honesty' tests really measure honesty? / Astrology Blackmore I Before R iswell: The meaning behind the Sampson I CSICOP at tw. ity. Kurtz I Maria's strikes back—but to what effect? / Diagnoses of alien crashed-UFO myth. Bartholomew I Case closed: i, and Beyerstein I death experie e. fooe, i, Mulligai kidnappings that result from conjunction effects in Reflections i the 1997 Air Force Roswell report. pseudocredential- Alternative hi th edui tion and memory / Mathematical magic for skeptics / The blind Gildenberg d Thomas I Gray Barker: My friend, the alternative health ing. Raso / Pe itagor grant funds girl who saw the flash of the first nuclear weapon test myth-maker, Sht rwood / A skeptic living in Roswell. Thomas Edison, study. Selby ani d Scheiber I / Science: The feminists' scapegoat? Churchill I Zero point energy and Harold Puthoff, Paranormalist. G, rdn Gardner. SUMMER 1993 (vol 17. no. 4): The right hemisphere: MAY/JUNE 1996 (vol. 20, no. 3) Delights and dangers An esoteric closet? / Improving science teaching: The MARCH/APRIL 1998 (vol. 22. no. 2): Special Report: of sensory illusions. Wolf I The enigmatic battery of textbook problem / The eyewitness: Imperfect inter­ The price of bad memories, tortus / Science, delusion, Baghdad, Eggert I The claims of aromatherapy, face between stimuli and story / Pathological science: and the appetite for wonder, Dawkms I A mind at McCutcheon / Fun and falla es with n jmbers, Savant An update / Jack Horkheimer. Star Hustler.' interview play: An interview with Martin Gardner, Frazier I / A study of fantasy on neness in John Macks / The false memory syndrome. Houdini and Conan Doyle: The story of a strange Abduction. Nickell I The gre t egg-bal. nemg mystery. friendship, Polidoro I Spontaneous human combus­ Gardner. SPRING 1993 (vol 17. no. 3): Anguished tion: Thoughts of a forensic biologist, Benecke / Did silence and helping hands: Autism and Adam and Eve have navels?, Gardner. MARCH/APRIL 1996 (vol. 20. no. 2) Science facilitated communication / Facilitated JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1998 (vol. 22. no. 1): Testing new and superstition. Sagan I Special report: Communication, autism, and Ouija / claims of dermo-optical perception. Benki and CBSSA Evaluation of military's program on psy­ Treading on the edge: Practicing safe sci­ Scientists I Magnetic water and fuel treatment. Powell chic spying. Hyman I The role of represen­ ence with SETI / Education for science / A I Dowsing the Rollrights. Hancock I Anomalous gold. tativeness in erroneous and pseudoscien- threat to science / Charles Honorton's Brower I Open minds and the argument from igno­ tific beliefs. Gilovich and Savitsky I legacy to parapsychology / 1993 CSICOP rance. Adler 1200% probability and beyond: The com­ Vampires of folklore and legend. Barber I Conference pelling nature of extraordinary claims n the absense Miracle photos Nickell I Claiborne Pell of alternative explanations. McDonald I Psychic Senator from outer space. Gardner. WINTER 1993 (vol 17, no. 2): Special report: exploitation. Wiseman and Greening I Is cannibalism a JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1996 (vol. 20. no. 1) 3.7 million Americans kidnapped by aliens? myth?, Gardner. How to make an alien for autopsy. Stokes / / Psychics: Do police departments really use EMDR treatment, Lilienfeld I Psychic crime them? / Psychic detectives: A critical exami­ NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 1997 (vol. 21. no. 6): The Mars detectives. Wiseman. IVest and Stemman I nation / Therapeutic touch. / Improving sci­ effect in retrospect. Nienhuys I Hidden messages and Health statistics bad for our hearth. Paulos I Science and ence teaching in the U.S / The Big Sur UFO' the Bible code. Thomas I Science, scientism, and anti- reason in film and television, fvans / Post-Freudian / The strange case of the New Haven oysters sctence in the age of preposterism. Haack I The dream theory, Gardner. FALL 1992 (vol 17. no 1): A celebration of Isaac Asimov: Elemental Man: An interview with Glenn T Seaborg / A man for the universe. Kendnck Frazier. Arthur C. NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 1995 (vol. 19. no. 6) The GAO Men in Black and Contact Night and day. Summer I Clarke. Frederik Pohl. Harlan Ellison, t. Sprague de report on Roswell. Klass I Why creationists dont go to Intelligent design and Phillip Johnson. Gardner. Camp. Carl Sagan. Stephen Jay Gould. Martin Gardner. psychic fairs. Taylor. Eve. and Harrold I Eyewitness tes­ Paul Kurtz. Donald Goldsmith. James Randi. and E. C SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1997 (vol. 21. no. S): Special timony and the paranormal. Wiseman. Smith, and Krvpp I Gaia without mysticism / Gaia'S scientific com­ Issue: Alternative Medicine in a Scientific World. Park. Wiseman I Objectivity and repeatability in science. ing of age / The curse of the runestone: Deathless Beyerstein. Sampson. Green. Goodenough. Mussachia I Culture-bound syndromes as fakery. hoaxes ' Night terrors, sleep paralysis, and McCutcheon I The Numerology of Dr. Rashad Khalifa. Bartholomew I Freud's theory of dreams. Gardner devil-stricken telephone cords from hell / Scientific Gardner. SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1995 (vol 19. no. 5) The para­ creationism: The social agenda of a pseudoscience / dox of knowledge, toevrnger / Consciousness as a JULY/AUGUST 1997 (vol. 21. no. 4): Special Report: Observing stars in the daytime: The chimney myth / valid subject for science. Ingalls I School daze: review Heaven's Gate. Kurtz. Gardner. Nickell I What really Does an ancient Jewish amulet commemorate the of African-American baseline essays. Rowe I Mystical coniunction of 2 8.C? happened at Roswell. Korff I Amazing free-energy medical alternativism. Raso I China, chi. and chicanery. claims of Dennis Lee. Kneg I Chiropractic: Science, Huston I fuzzy logic. Gardner. antiscience. pseudoscience. Keating I Secrets of a For a complete listing of our back issues, call 800-634- Russian psychic. Polidoro. JULY/AUGUST 199S (vol 19. no. 4) How to sell a pseu­ 1610. or see http://www.csicop.org/si/back-issues. MAY/JUNE 1997 (vol. 21. no. 3): Is the sky falling?. doscience. Pratkams I Rumors, self-fulfilling prophe- html. LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

"might be entertaining in a Star Wars movie." Too often we skeptics shy away from criticiz­ thought to why those beliefs are held or He states, "Their claim to truth should make- ing mainline religions, and that includes arti­ admitting that the decision to believe pseu- any thinking person blanch.'' cles written for SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. Thus it doscientific claims is understandable. One As persons active in promoting the skep­ was refreshing to read Wayne R. Anderson's minor point: Anderson concludes that sci­ tic movement on the local, national, and article "Why Would People Not Believe ence education is needed to improve people's international level, we wish it to be publicly Weird Things?" in which he pointed out that ability to distinguish between real science known that we consider skepticism to be claims of religion are just as weird as those of and pseudoscience. Although I agree with pro-science, not anti-religion, and that such pseudoscience. him, I think what is most needed is to rhetoric is both unnecessary and counter­ improve people's "faith" in science. As productive to promoting critical thinking Edgar Pearlstein Anderson points out, for most lay people, among the general public. Signers of this let- Lincoln, Neb. many scientific claims must be accepted on ter include believing skeptics, non-believing faith. It is, therefore, critical that the scien­ skeptics, and those in-between and unde­ tific community be trusted and believed in. cided. They are troubled by the writer's auto­ Bingo, Mr. Anderson! Your assessment that This is the real challenge. It is not so much a matic equation of all Christianity with science makes all the demands of faith that battle to teach people scientific methods Biblical literalism and find this both inaccu­ teligion does but without the benefits of (although this is part of it) but a battle of rate and unnecessarily divisive. All agree that coddled pride or oversold salvation is a point credibility: who will you choose to believe? It regardless of their personal views on the too long ignored by the scientific commu­ is this battle that science is losing. Perhaps validity of the statements, the same ideas nity. This tendency can be blamed in part on the best way to win is not to attack "irra­ could have and should have been expressed the somewhat incestuous nature of living tional beliefs" but to remind people how in a less inflammatory manner. and working within a closed academic or successful science has been and how much it professional system and losing the perceptual has improved our lives. Science teachers are Moreover, Mr. Anderson does not prop­ vitality necessary to appreciate particular important, but what science really needs are erly distinguish between faith and knowl­ problems from out-worldly viewpoints. evangelists! edge. He talks about Christians believing that Jesus walked on water based upon Not fully apprehended, either, is the way Alan S. Miller flimsy evidence. This is wrong—most in which substantial scientific information is Professor. Department of Christians who believe this believe it upon so poorly disseminated to the public. We are faith. (By contrast if anyone claimed posses­ supplied with fetching displays of experi­ Behavioral Sciences sion of testable evidence proving Jesus mental phenomena—but with very little Hokkaido University, Japan walked on water, their claim would certainly information about science as an institution. be amenable to skeptical analysis.) The con­ Religion does its communicating superbly tent of beliefs, whether religious, New Age, well, offering dynamic rhetoric in a manner Wayne R. Anderson's article asks why people or scientific, is irrelevant. What matters is easily comprehended by the public through should be expected to disbelieve weird whether a belief is based upon faith or upon widely accessible channels, many of them things, such as religions, astrology, UFOs, logic and evidence. If a claim is based upon owned by religious interests. Why doesn't alien abductions, dowsing, reincarnation, faith then our role as skeptics is to label it as science, or the academy in general, establish etc. to be replaced by rational science, in such, and to point out that faith is outside at least one major cable channel all its own view of the increasingly countcr-common- the realm of science and can only be held by instead of having to rely on the vagaries of sensical and arcane nature of cutting-edge personal choice. If a claim is based upon evi­ commercial operations or the controversially cosmology, quantum theory, and evolution­ dence, then the full weight of skepticism can, reticent PBS. After all, carrying Mr. ary thought. and should, be brought to bear. Anderson's observations a little further, if To simplify this argument, we may con­ you are going to attack pseudoscience and cede that much of pseudoscience serves as a The signers feel Mr. Anderson's article is New Age hawkery, you must also attack surrogate for religious beliefs. Sigmund unintentionally harmful CO skepticism, Biblical authority with equal vigor, otherwise Freud in Civilization and its Discontents because it criticizes religious belief based you arc rightly perceived as exclusory in your holds that man's religious need derives from upon a scientific standard. Such behavior criticism, an enormous mistake in informa­ infant helplessness and the longing for a tends to blur the necessary boundary between tional integrity .... science, which deals with testable claims father's protection, a feeling sustained into about the physical world, and teligion, which adulthood by fear of the superior power of deals with faith and intangible questions such Carl Archibald fate. We long to return to that secure, pre­ as the meaning of life. Making such a dis­ Salem, Ore. dictable world of early childhood where a tinction clear is critical to the mission of CSI- father (or mother) appears all-powerful and COP and the logical skeptical groups to pro­ all-knowing, and as adults we seek a connec­ mote scientific thinking in a public arena. tion with a powerful entity that is concerned I very much enjoyed Wayne Anderson's with us as individuals and makes our lives piece. He added a much-needed perspective more significant, providing needed existen­ Daniel Barnett, David Bloomberg, Tim often missed or ignored by skeptics. If 90 tial comfort. Holmes, Peter Huston. Paul Jafte, Eric percent of Americans believe in God, and a Krieg. Scott Lilienfeld, Jim Lippard. majority believe a wide range of pseudosci- Both UFO and astrology enthusiasts are Rebecca Long, Lori Marino, Rick entific claims, it is useful to ask why. Too driven by a presumed connection with cos­ Moen, Steven Novella. Bela Scheiber, often skeptics (of which 1 am one) merely mic forces. Religions tell us we are all impor­ and Michael Sofka (Signers'organizations express their outrage or dismay at all of those tant to God, with promised benefits accru­ and cities omitted by editor for space.) "irrational" people out there, without giving ing mainly in the world to come, a clever

64 January/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

manipulation; but as Anderson remarks, I will admit to being a Newtonian How now can we protect the poor "their claim to truth should make any think­ dinosaur, who occasionally tries to lumber benighted layman who, with the help of the ing person blanch." CSICOP has been say­ into the modern age of quantum physics. I'll media, the Internet, and other sources of mis­ ing the same for pseudosciences, with proof pick up an article or book or watch a PBS information, cannot distinguish science from supporting its assertions. special, and try to understand what this religion, when scientists who should know Both Carl Sagan and Richard Dawkins string theory is about, or how the entire uni­ better cannot separate science from science make the case that the mystery and wondet of verse could exist in a tiny speck of energy fiction or even pseudoscience (Read Visions by science should be enough for us, and that we that becomes the Big Bang, or how you can Michio Kaku to see how a scientist can hold should connect with what is already here in have parallel universes in the same space. I imagination higher than knowledge.). . . . the material world before concluding we need invariably retreat, feeling oppressed by my something more (Dawkins, SI, Vol.22 No.2). walnut-sized reptilian brain and wondering Bernard Smith Sagan, when asked to explain his enthusiasm how long before the mammals push us out. Boca Raton, Fla. lor science, said "When you're in love you And yet, I am not that stupid. I've got want to tell the world"(Cooper, SI, Vol.22 two degrees, and was just shy of a 4.0 on the No.2). Both remarks share a religious tone. last one, which involved a lot of heavy-duty Both religion and science seek certainty about math and computer courses. I have a good What's Going On at reality but have dissimilar groundings; both head for logic, and a mind that is open Temple University? share a compulsion to explain reality to us. enough to explore new ideas that make sense. Anderson's excellent summaries of string Martin Gardner's column, appropriately theory, M-thcory, many worlds, entangled par­ But they have to make sense. They have- titled, "What's Going On at Temple ticles, etc. defy common sense, yet these the­ to be explained in simple everyday language University?" (September/October 1998) was ories represent the epitome of scientific so we can see and understand the concept on target. Under the guise of academic free­ rationality, leading the eminent American and explain it ourselves when we debate it dom, all sorts of nonsense has been produced philosopher Richard Rorty to note the paral­ with our friends. Otherwise, it's just the at Temple, with David Jacobs and his alien lels between science and religion. The same sort of techno-babble that we hear on abduction theories as the weirdest. Gardner F.nlightenment held that truths must cohere the Star Trek series. did not mention. though. Temple into a unifying whole, whereas postmodern In closing, I will humbly admit that the University's role in also promoting one of the thought claims we sometimes need to hold average physicist has a brilliant intellect that most pernicious cults of pscudohistory and two contradictory views at once, setting far outshines my own. But I am still left with pseudoscience, that of "Afrocentrism." aside any idea of truth, as some poets do the uncomfortable slogan: Steven Hawking Professor Molefi Kete Asante chaired the where ambiguity and metaphor replace the said, "I believe it and that settles it." F-xcept I African Studies Department (or the idea of absolute truth. never was much good in the faith department. "Department of Africology" as they now The revered skeptic Martin Gardner wish to call it) at Temple from 1985 to 1997. Bev Kaufman admits an idiosyncratic belief in a private He quickly became one of the nation's lead­ God (SI. Vol.22 No.2) that provides him Sunrise, Fla. ing proponents of Afrocentrism, which consolation and helps keep despair at bay. claims that the ancient Egyptians were Black While some, including myself, may be and that the Greeks stole from them the cul­ unable to share this consolatory belief, this in Wayne R. Anderson's discerning questions tural basis of Western Civilization. Professor no way diminishes our respect for Martin on beliefs in weird things was unquestion­ Asante and his colleagues specifically reject Gardner's intellect or contributions to the ably the outstanding article in that issue. Western traditions of scholarship and evi­ world. Should he tell us he is privy to God's Modern attempts to find one theory for dence, using myths and religious rituals to mind and knows what kind of life we should everything are indeed on the border of reli­ reconstruct bogus histories designed to all lead, this respect would suffer. I am con­ gion. Quarks, eleven dimensions (not ten) increase the self-esteem of Black Americans. fident this will not occut in his case, but I am and unlimited multiple universes arc all The most dangerous aspect of Afrocentrism not so confident about many others. tainted with the same sin of unfalsifiability, has been its introduction into the curricula the well-known mark of religion. There is no of many urban schools, especially in the Private religious belief or disbelief is way of proving or disproving (by scientific, "African-American Baseline Essays" (SI, acceptable in our democratic society, but physical detection) the existence of any of September/October 1995). Absurdities arc when it moves into the public arena as these entities. taught to children within the ftamework of absolute truth, criticism is warranted. . . . Afrocentrism. and the teachers gain their But that is neither here nor there. We cer­ pedagogical inspiration from lionized profes­ Edwin D. Cox tainly may use them for relating cause and sors in higher education. Temple University Chapel Hill. N.C. effect. The fact that not all ate strictly essen­ is helping to create a sad and tragic legacy in tial or even sufficient for a particular theory the Black American community, where true is forgivable in the same sense that we give knowledge is sacrificed to a misguided racial absolution to violators of religious morality, Thanks for printing Wayne R. Anderson's consciousness. article, "Why Would People Not Believe which also works more often than not. Weird Things?." which expressed something However to make it all acceptably liberal we should extend to both disciplines the prop­ I've been feeling for years: Some scientific Mark A. Wilson erty of fallibility and the uncertainty in theories require as great an act of laith to the Professor of geology detecting the Truth with a capital T, carefully average layman as anything you'll read in the The College of Wooster and mercifully sidestepped by Anderson. Bible, the horoscope, or the Globe. Wooster, Ohio

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER january/feb-ua'y '995 65 LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

In his article on "What's Going On At chairman of Temple's board of trustees would ing. Ms. Semersky's letter, with all its references Temple University?" (September/October squander $100,000 a year on a center and its to modern physics, is even funnier than her 1998), Martin Gardner misses the point periodical that contribute absolutely nothing to article. That a magazine claiming to discuss about Temple's Center for Frontier Sciences the progress of science. matters on the "frontiers" of scientific research and the important function it serves. would publish her paper is, however, not funny, The Center does not conduct research. but sad. The rationale tor its existence is to provide a A small part of Martin Gardner's article in global forum lor the exchange of informa­ the September/October 1998 SI reflects on, tion and intellectual inquiry into scientific, in his words, the "funniest" paper that was As witnesses and victims of Temple medical, and technological issues which are published in Vol. 7, No. 1, 1998 of Frontier University's Center for Frontier Science we considered outside the mainstream. A funda­ Perspectives. He refers here to my article "On were glad to see Martin Gardner's expose. We mental reason for establishing the Center in the Nature of Tarot," which appeared in the too have been wondering what is going on at 1987 was a belief that "the frontier science of Invited Opinion section of this periodical, a Temple and were only surprised about the today may become the mainstream science section devoted to works which, by virtue of extent of the duplicity and pseudoscience. of tomorrow." their being original, and usually interdisci­ In 1994 we submitted our eagerly On its advisory and editorial boards are plinary, ideas, afford the authors the privilege solicited article ("Microbial pleiomorphy: distinguished researchers, scientists, physi­ of publication without the usual peer-review procedure. prerequisite for cell differentiation and ani­ cians, theoreticians, and engineers from mal communities") as a good faith response throughout the world—all of whom agree While listing—randomly and without to Beverly Rubik's invitation tc the with the Center's purpose of being a sound­ paying attention to the inferential process per­ "Pleiomorphy Conference." The term refers ing board lor new inquiries and new ideas. meating the article in question—some critical to the microbiological fact that bacteria and They include faculty members at Oxford points of my paper, Gardner doesn't make the protists take on altered shapes and sizes University, Harvard University, University of slightest effort to attempt to refute any of my depending on environmental conditions and Pennsylvania, Duke University, Nagaoka arguments. If he disagrees with propositions hence many live forms of these tiny organ­ University of Technology, University of appearing in my article, why didn't he raise isms go unrecognized. Arizona, University of Milano, and any objections instead of limiting his reason­ Fhe Philadelphia conference (autumn of ing to a single epithet, "funniest," with regard University of Bath. 1993 which only L.M. attended) coaxed to my paper? I was looking forward to the The Center does not endorse research or some remarkable genuine scientists (Gerald opportunity to attract the scientific scrutiny put any seal of approval on peer-reviewed Domingue, Shyh-Ching Lo, and others) to that, I believe, is the purpose of the Invited articles in its journal, Frontier Perspectives. It join people whom L.M. suspected were char­ Opinion section, but Mr. Gardner a priori does operate, however, in a lively interdisci­ latans. Suffice it to say that five years later crossed himself out of such a promising dia­ plinary framework in which the questions (after much work and expense in manuscript logue. He seems to be unaware of the con­ may be just as important as the answers. preparation) in spite of our frequent temporary debate on such issues as backward It is unfortunate that Gardner does not inquiries and their requests for continued causation, or effect of imagery on concept for­ understand the Center's mission. But if he patience, the conference proceedings are of mation, or philosophical implications of the believes that a university should not foster course unpublished. Apparently Rubik (who puzzles of space-time from viewpoints of unfettered thinking and inquiry, then the has founded a second center, the Institute for nowhere and nowhen, or the current dis­ real targets in his article are the academy Frontier Science in California) and Kolenda course in the field of experimental meta­ no longer speak to each other or communi­ itself and the Iree exchange of ideas. physics, or the ontology of virtual and actual. cate in any way. Nancy Kolenda If. as it seems to me, the phenomenon of Director Tarot plays even a small and marginal role in We are grateful to the intrepid and eru­ Center for Frontier Sciences the aforementioned conceptual explorations, dite Gardner for bringing to our attention Temple University. it deserves attention and respect—something the depth of the problem. We will now stop that Mr. Gardner, despite his age and scholar­ assuming that our chapter contribution will ship, has still to learn to practice! ever be printed and we will remove the title from our curricula vitae. Martin Gardner replies: Inna Semersky Lynn Margulis It would be helpfid if Temple University's Teachers College Distinguished University Professor Center for Frontier Sciences had a director who Columbia University Department of Geosciences was a scientist. Director Nancy Kolenda, an New York, N.Y. Michael Dolan, Ph.D. candidate accountant, fails completely to comprehend the Organismic and Evolutionary distinction between reputable frontier science Biology and crank science. To feature articles defending Martin Gardner replies: University of Massachusetts, homeopathy, dowsing, Tarot card reading, and Amherst the notion that physical ills are mental delu­ Inna Semersky is irked because 1 called her sions is no different from publishing articles defense of Tarot card reading "funny, " without defending palmistry, phrenology, numerology, giving my reasons for rejecting such fortune and Velikovsky's crazy cosmology. telling. I would no more waste space trying to My one face-to-face meeting with David It is a great embarrassment to a distin­ "refine " Tarot card reading than I would waste Jacobs goes back to 1979 when I attended a guished university and its scientists that the space trying to refine palmistry or tea-leaf read­ talk on UFOs by him at Loyola College in

66 ianuary/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER

. LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Baltimore, where I then lived. Within time and place of birth) reveal certain char­ Sotally Tober moments of commencing his presentation, 1 acteristics of that human being (intellectual Starkle. starkle, little twink. raised my hand to offer a correction. After ability, romantic and sexual inclinations, eth­ Who the hell you are I think? doing so a second time a few moments later, ical and moral tendencies, and general I'm not under what they call 1 asked if future such comments should be prospects for the future). The affluence of incohol. held until the end. A game trouper, Jacobs Aren'r astrologers assessing people on I'm not drunk as thinkle peep, invited me to raise my hand at will, and I grounds similar to racial bigotry? I'm just a little slort of sheep. must have done so a dozen times during the Tee many martoonies make a guy course of his talk (I was apparently the only Gregory Vogel Feel so foolish—don't know why. well-versed attendee, and the only one with [email protected] Really don't know who's me yet, questions and comments). The drunker I stay the longer I get; So one more fink to drill by cup, The error I remember most vividly I've all day sober to Sunday up. related to the famous 1971 Delphos, Kansas, Judith Hayes brought back to me the con­ "UFO landing trace" case, in which a ring of versations I used to have about thirty years white substance purported to be UFO- ago with young tolks who had become If anyone knows the author and date of propulsion residue (but later determined to enamored of astrology. 1 used to try some of this, and whether or not the text is correct, be natural organic matter) was allegedly left her approaches, but none of them could please Id me know. I am truly mun'su-,1. .is behind on the soil, which had been muddied "prove" that astrology is nonsense. So I are many others! by recent rains (see chapter 28 in Philip developed this one: Besides, such poetic genius deserves Klass's UFOs Explainer/). In Jacobs's inexplic­ recognition. Is this silly? Of course it is. is "I am perfectly willing to admit that able mangling of the tale, the white ring this important? Ot course it is! In a world ot became "the only area of the yard where the there may indeed be a few individuals disintegrating governments and terrorist snow didn't melt." who have a special power to see and bombs, you just have to lake ihe lime, now understand matters hidden from the and again, to stop and search for Starkles. What distinguishes Jacobs's research from rest of us, but I have yet to meet such that of the other "UFO abductionists" are a person and I don't think that the Judith Hayes his academic credentials in the field of his­ horoscope column in the daily news­ [email protected] torical truth. Jacobs may be a fine college paper is prepared by such a person." Valley Springs, Calif. history teacher, but what he taught me that day some nineteen years ago only serves to Die typical response was, "Oh." End of reinforce my skepticism of the historical real­ conversation about astrology. ity of "UFO abductions." Incidentally, many of those who used to Scientific Psychology go for astrology are now enthusiastic about Gary P. Posner, M.D. the Myers-Briggs Type indicator. It has the Henry Schlinger, Jr., in "Of Planets and founder, Tampa Bay Skeptics advantage of having a "scientific" basis for Cognitions" (September/October), begins Tampa Bay, Fla. separating people into sixteen different per­ with a valid point. The social sciences, and [email protected] sonality types. But it is nonsense too. psychology in particular, assume the exis­ tence of unobservable processes, but lack an Harold J. Brownlee experimentally verified body of laws to jus­ Chatham. N.J. tify these assumptions. Dr. Schlinger wants Starkle, Starkle psychology to be "a natural science of behav­ ior," eschewing reliance on "unobservable Judith Hays's article "Starkle, Starkle, Little In response to my article about astrology, phenomena," such as ".. . the mind, the self, Twink" (SI, September/October 1998) offers "Starkle, Starkle, Little Twink," I received a personality, memory, and consciousness." an effective way to challenge belief in astrol­ great deal of favorable mail (thank you!) and, He ends with a call to arms for psycholo­ ogy, by asking simple questions that reveal the surprisingly, an equal number of inquiries gists to follow in the footsteps of Galileo and inconsistencies and errors of astrology. Many about the origin of the ditty I quoted in the Newton by creating this new school of scien­ of the questions she suggests, however, can be title. People wanted to know the full text, the tific psychology, based solely on the observa­ countered by astrologers because they only author and the date. Alas, I had no idea! 1 tion of cause and effect. The problem is that concern date and time of birth, not location. knew only the first two lines and hadn't a it already exists, it's called behaviorism. J.B. A slightly different line of questioning clue as to the author. Watson wrote the same essay in 1913 may be more effective, because it concerns Apparently, though, a great many people ("Psychology as the Bchaviorist Sees it." the broad nature of astrology: ask how astrol­ had read that same verse and could remember Psychological Review, vol. 20, 1913). The ogy is different from racial bigotry. Racial bits and pieces but not the whole thing hear­ techniques of this movement have proven bigots believe that certain inherent proper­ ing it as long ago as 1938. So, determined highly effective in ccrrain areas, but no one ties of a human being (skin color and ethnic now to track this thing down, I searched the has yet demonstrated a way to explain peo­ origin) reveal certain characteristics of that Net, sent out e-mails, and phoned the library ple's subjective experience without recourse human being (intellectual ability, romantic reference desk. The results were mixed. There to "unobservable" phenomena, such as and sexual inclinations, ethical and moral arc several versions of this little poem floating thoughts, moods, intentions, and wishes. tendencies and general prospects for the around out there. I couldn't find the author's The weaker form of behaviorism states that future). Astrologers believe that certain name, but the following is my best guess as to such things arc not fit objects of study. The inherent properties of a human being (date. the original title and text: more radical form asserts that they arc illu-

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 1999 67 LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

sory. This is not skepticism, it's solipsism. I find that most people seek help because psychotherapy more than a decade ago. they have trouble in relationships, can't get In 1995, the Task Force of the Division Adam Rosenblatt, M.D. ahead in life, or feel depressed or anxious. of Clinical Psychology ol the American Assistant professor of psychiatry For these people, a short course of therapy Psychological Association published its John Hopkins School of can bring insight, improvement, and relief. Training in anil Dissemination of Empirically- Medicine For others, who come because of deeper validated Psychological Treatment: Report and Baltimore, Md. difficulties, such as an inability to differenti­ Recommendations. The Task Force identified ate between self and Others, projected rage or 22 well-established treatments for 21 differ­ paranoia, suicidal thoughts, etc., a longer ent disorders and another 7 probably effec­ tive treatments for the same number of dis­ course may be necessary to provide the In Defense of orders. Twenty of the 22 well-established capacities they failed to develop in childhood Psychotherapy treatments were/are behavioral in nature. (a kind of reparenting). Similarly, all but the brief psychodynamic For still others who suffer from severe therapies listed as probably effective were I am sorry to find that Robert Baker's review mental illnesses such as schizophrenia, major of Therapeutic Madness, by John I. Lynch, behavioral. By 1996 the Task Force added depression or bipolar disorder, medication falls far short of the editorial standards 1 another eight well-established treatments may be necessary in addition to talk therapy, associate with SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. The and 19 probably effective treatments, which, to prevent disordered thinking, bizarre tevicw comes across as a diatribe by someone with five exceptions, were behavioral in behavior, or suicide. For these people, there with an ax to grind and a personal agenda nature. Further, just last year Nathan and not at all consistent with application of may be no other way to survive. Gorman, in A Guide to Treatments that Work, empirical techniques to medical care. Though some of the precepts of therapy confirmed that psychological treatments are necessarily deductive, the work is basi­ alone and in combination with drugs have Dr. Baker makes much of the idea that cally a rational assessment of the person's been found effective for a wide variety of modern psychiatry does not "cure" mental ill­ strengths and weaknesses, and a thoughtful conditions. Behavioral treatments, then, ness. Modern psychiatry does not claim to intervention to help them become happier have shown their effectiveness for quite a "cure" mental illness, any more than internal and more productive. number of disorders. medicine claims to "cure" hypertension or diabetes. Dr. Baker seems to want to gloss Philip Bockman The research evidence suggests that cog- over the fact that many mental illnesses are New York, N.Y. nitively and behaviorally oriented psy- recurrent and/or chronic, but have docu­ chotherapies can contribute to the well-being mented response rates to treatment as high of individuals suffering from an increasing and often higher than disorders of other variety of syndromes. Things are not quite as organ systems. To assert that there are no Dr. Baker's dismissive comments on the bleak as suggested by Dr. Baker and there is published therapeutic standards, reliable and value of psychotherapy, while entertaining, good reason to believe that, with continued valid diagnostic tools, and generally accepted do not have the support of controlled scien­ research, cognitive and behaviorally oriented treatment techniques with documented tific research. Treatment outcome research psychotherapists will demonstrate further outcome measures is to demonstrate gross essentially dates from Hans Eysenck's 1952 increases in their therapeutic effectiveness. ignorance of the psychiatric literature. To work in which he found that psychotherapy, emphasize that mental disorders are emo­ at that time, was largely ineffective. By 1980 Gary W. Lea, Psy.D. tional disorders as if completely devoid of any there was little defined improvement. registered psychologist neurobiologic.il basis suggests that the brain Rachman and Wilson (1980) reviewed the Kelowna, B.C., Canada is somehow immune to the dysfunctions that therapeutic outcomes of psychoanalytic afflict every other organ system in the body. treatment, group therapy, behavior therapy, Such dualism has been overwhelmingly and cognitive-behavioral therapy and found rejected by the mainstream psychiatric and that some slight progress had been made in Robert A. Baker responds: neurobiologies! communities.. .. the attempt to support the claims made on behalf of psychotherapy. They found, how­ The Letters to the Editor section is not the ever, that the negative results still outnum­ proper place to debate the successes and failures of either modern psychiatry or psychotherapy. Scott D. Moore, M.D., Ph.D. bered the positive findings. They com­ Duke University mented, however, that behavior therapy was In 1996 I devoted an entire book. Mind Department of Psychiatry promising, especially with respect to obses­ Games (Prometheus Books), lo this issue. The Durnam, N.C. sive/compulsive disorders, and some sexual book itself is a thorough and annotated 477- dysfunctions. Cognitive behavior therapy page response and rebuttal to the good doctors was also considered to be a valuable and Moore, Bockman. and Lea's knee-jerk reactions interesting addition to the methods for in defense of their trade. I recommend they As a psychotherapist I must object to the assisting people. Howard et al. in 1986 read my book before hurling accusations. blanket condemnation of therapy in Robert found there was a growing consensus that A. Baker's review. Baker and the authors he psychotherapy was generally beneficial and cites base their complaints on the justified that the degree of therapeutic benefit anger of a handful of disgruntled patients appeared to be positively related to the Dracula Centennial who've had bad experiences. Granted, there amount of treatment. This dose-effect rela­ arc charlatans and incompetents in the ther­ tionship lor psychotherapy constituted Joe Nickell in the September/October issue apy field, as in any other. However, the empirical support for the effectiveness of mentioned that Dracula by Bram Stoker was majority help their patients immensely. published in 1891. Since a theater in the

68 :anuary/February 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

town which I live recently celebrated the him pursue his own scientific interests GAO Reports to bring up a query form. novel's hundredth anniversary with a stage because this paid off for them. At the time he Persons can also connect to the GAO Report production I thought that the date was a bit left, he was Senior Scientist on the Director's query form through the GAO Web page at odd. Sure enough, my copy of the novel says staff. He has done important theoretical and http://www.gao.gov. This report, along with that it was first published in 1897. experimental work especially in gravitation other government reports about the Roswell and space sciences, one of his many inven­ Incident, can be found in United States Michael S. Hopkins tions being the rotating gravitational mass Depository libraries throughout the country. Norman, O.K. sensor. He continues to do research indepen­ dently in frontier areas, often under govern­ Cindy Rosser ment contract. His novels, which he writes Government Publication for fun, are as solidly grounded in real sci­ Librarian ABC's Automated Autos! ence as any I know of. In his nonfiction books, he is always very careful to distinguish On September A ABC aired an hour-long fact from speculation and to assess how far- documentary called "When Cars Attack" out, even unlikely, a speculation is. It's Smith that purported to demonstrate that automo­ biles, trucks, bikes—even speedboats— As a writer myself, 1 can assure you that Am I right that, in referring to Tom W Clark sometimes have minds of their own. They authors are not responsible for their publish­ of the National Opinion Research Center, ers' jacket copy! can, we were told, spontaneously take over (News 8c Comment, September/October) the controls from the driver and cause all As for zero-point energy, this is a subject Matt Nisbet meant Tom W Smith sorts of mayhem. Drivcrless cars were shown of interest to a number of physicists, includ­ taking off and leading the police on wild ing the well-known Sidney Coleman at William L. MacDonald chases. A wcll-rchearscd female "psychiatrist" Harvard. Associate professor of declared that "we have a 'vims' out there sociology Poul Anderson spreading evil throughout the automotive Ohio State University population." Orinda. Calif. Newark, Ohio Dozens of cleverly faked crash incidents were screened. I soon realized it was unlikely Yes, Smith was meant. that video cameras and skilled operators Homespun Pi (on Video) —Editor could have been so conveniently available so often. However I believe that many viewers, In light of Dave Thomas's article on his pi brainwashed on a TV diet of UFOs and April Fools joke (September/October), I'd The letters column is a forum far views on the alien-encounters, could have been duped. like to note that there's more to pi than matters raised in previous issues. Letters should The script was laced with the usual rhetori­ meets the face. The National Center for be no more than 225 words. Due to the volume cal gulf: "Is it possible that. . ?" "Can there Science Education distributes the classic of letters, not all can be published. They ihoulti be . . ?" "Do these events prove . . ?" "Are the homespun video, direct from the mountain be double-spaced. Address: Letters to the Editor. authorities conspiring to cover up . . ?" etc. hollows of Kansas, "Institute for Pi SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. 944 Deer Dr. NE. ABC covered their backsides by finally Research." IPR staffers explain the urgent Albuquerque. NM 87122. flashing up an admission that none of the need to gain at least equal time for "Biblical, events depicted were real. They provided short pi" versus "modernistic, long pi," using time to read only the first few lines of a long outrageous puns, peccable logic, and dead­ Don't Think About disclaimer. A rather irresponsible bit of pro­ pan delivery. The perpetrators, er. scholars gramming for any day other than April first, are actually Kansas math professors and stu­ Pseudoscience . . . I think. dents. The 25-minute tape is $16 (available from NCSE at 1-800-290-6006). Without Horace TE. Hone Palm Coast. Fla. John R. Cole Skeptical Inquirer NCSE El Cerrito, Calif. the magazine for science and reason Unfair to Forward To subscribe, call toll It is not like Martin Gardner to be unfair, GAO Roswell Report but he is when he calls Robert Forward "a on Web free 1-800-634-1610 maverick physicist" and cites the titles of a few science fiction novels and the publisher's In yout latest issue, you mention a General The latest CSICOP news and blurb for a nonfiction book as evidence of Accounting Office report about investiga­ events can be found at our nuttiness ("Responding to Puthoff: Zero- tion of a possible government covcrup con­ Point Energy" September/October). cerning the records about the "Roswell Web site: Dr. Forward spent thirty-one years at the Incident." This report. GAO/NSLAD-95- http://www.CSICOP.org Hughes Aircraft Company Corporate 187. is available from the GPO Access web­ Research Laboratories, where they mostly let site, http://www.acccss.gpo.gov, click on

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 1999 69 THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLAIMS OF THE PARANORMAL AT THE CENTER FOR INQUIRY-INTERNATIONAl (ADJACENT TO THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BUFFALO) • AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION Network of Affiliated Organizations International

ARGENTINA. CAIRP. Director, Ladislao Enrique FINLAND. Skepsis. llpo V. Salmi. Chairman. Veikko KOREA. Korea PseudoScience Awareness. Gun-ll Marquez, Casilla de Correo 26. sue. 25. 1425, Buenos Joutsenlahti, Secretary. P.O. Box. 00101 Helsinki, Kang. Director, 187-11 Bukahyun-dong Sudaemun- Aires. Finland. E-mail contact: Jukka Hakkinen, Jukka. ku. Seoul 120-190. Korea. [email protected]. AUSTRALIA. National: Australian Skeptics. Contact: MEXICO. Mexican Association for Skeptical Barry Williams. Executive Officer. P.O. Box 268. FRANCE. Cercle Zetetique. Contact: Paul-Eric Blanrue, Research (SOMIE), Mario Mendez Acosta*, Roseville, NSW 2069. (Phone: 61 2 9417 2071, Fax: 61 12 Rue David Deitz, 57000 Metz. Comite Francais Chairman. Apartado Postal 19-546, Mexico 03900. D.F. 2 9417 7930. E-mail: skeptics8kasm.com.au). pour I'Etude des Phenomenes Paranormaux, NETHERLANDS. Stichting Skepsis, Rob Nanninga. Regional: Australian Capital Territory Skeptics, Secretary-General, Merlin Gerin. RGE/A2 38050 Secretary, Westerkade 20, 9718 AS Groningen. P.O. Box 555. Civic Square. 2608 Hunter Skeptics. Grenoble Cedei Union Rationaliste, Contact: Jean- (formerly Newcastle). P.O. Box 166. Waratah NSW Paul Krivine. 14. Rue de I'Ecole Polytechnique. 75005 NEW ZEALAND. New Zealand Skeptics. Bernard 2298. Darwin Skeptics (Northern Territory), P.O. Paris. Howard, Secretary. 150 Dyer's Pass Rd., Christchurch Box 809, Sanderson NT 0812. Queensland Skeptics, 2. N.Z. Vickie Hyde. Chair-entity. South Pacific Infor­ GERMANY. Society for the Scientific Investigation P.O. Box 6454. Fairfield Gardens OLD 4103. South mation Services. Box 19-760, Christchurch 5, N.Z. Fax: of Para-Science (GWUP). Amardeo Sarma.* Australia Skeptics. P.O. Box 377, Rundle Mall, 5A +64 (03) 385-5138. E-mail: nzsm8spis.co.nz. Web: Convenor, Postrach 1222, D-64374 Rossdorf (Phone: 5061, Australia. (E-mail: [email protected]). http://www.spis.co.nz/skeptics.htm. •49 6154 695021, Fax: +49 6154 695022. E-mail: Tasmanian Skeptics. 97 Gillon Crescent. Mount NORWAY. Skepsis, St. Olavsgt. 27, N-0166. Oslo. info8gwup.org). Stuart TAS 7000. Victoria Skeptics. P.O. Box PERU. CISPSIPERU. Contact: MA. Paz y Mino, 5166AA. Melbourne, VIC 3001 Western Australia HONG KONG. Hong Kong Skeptics. Contact: Brad Director. El Corregidor 318. Lima 25 Peru. Skeptics, P.O. Box 899, Morley WA 6062. Collins. P.O. Box 1010. Shatin Central Post Office, Shatin, NT. RUSSIA. Contact. Dr. Valerii A. Kuvakin. Zdravyi Smysl BELGIUM. SKEPP W. Betz. Secretary, Laarbeeklaan (Common Sense). 119899 Russia, Moscow. Vorob'evy HUNGARY. Hungarian Skeptics. Gyula Bencze. 103, B1090 Brussels (Fax: 32-2-4774301). Gory, Moscow, State University, Philosophy Termewet Vtlaga, P.O. Box 25, Budapest 8,1444 (Fax: Department. BRAZIL. Opcao Racional, Luis Gutman. Rua Santa Clara, 011-36-1-118-7506). 431, Bloco 5, Apt. 803, Copacabana - Rio de Janeiro SLOVAK REPUBLIC. Society for Advocacy of INDIA. Indian Skeptics, B. Premanand, Chairman, 10 22041-010 (+55-21-547-2088 or +55-21-235-2476). Critical Thinking (SACT). Igor Kapisinsky. Secretary, Chettipalayam Rd.. Podanur 641-023 Coimbatore DostojevsWho rad 13, 811 09 Bratislava, Slovak BULGARIA. Bulgarian Skeptics, Contact: Wladimir Tamil Nadu Indian Rationalist Association. Republic. Daskalow. Krakra 22. BG-1504 Sofia, Bulgaria. Contact: Sanal Edamaruku, 779, Pocket 5, Mayur SOUTH AFRICA. Assn. for the Rational Investiga­ Vihar 1. New Delhi 110 091. Maharashtra CANADA. Alberta Skeptics, Heidi Lloyd-Price, tion of the Paranormal (ARIP). Marian Laserson, Superstition Eradication Committee, Contact. Secretary, P.O. Box 5571. Station A. Calgary. Alberta Secretary, P.O. Box 46212, Orange Grove, 2119 South Narendra Dabholkar, 155 Sadashiv Peth. Satara-415 T2H 1X9. British Columbia Skeptics, Contact: Lee Africa. SOCRATES. Contact: L.W. Retief. P.O. Box 001 Dravidar Kazhagam, K. Veeramnani, General Moller, 1188 Beaufort Road. Vancouver V7G 1R7. 10240, Welgedact, Bellville 7530, South Africa, E-mail: Secretary. Periyar Thidal, 50, E.V.K. Sampath Road, Ontario Skeptics, Henry Gordon, Chairman, 343 leonr8iafrica.com. Clark Ave West, Suite 1009, Thornhill Ontario L4J 7K5 Madras - 600 007, Tamil Nadu. SPAIN. Alternativa Racional a las Pseudociencias (E-mail: hgordoneidirect.com). Sceptiques du IRELAND. Irish Skeptics, Contact: Peter O'Hara. St. (ARP). Carlos Telleria, Executive Director. Apdto. Quebec Donald Gilbert, C.P. 202, Succ. Beaubien, Joseph's Hospital. Limerick. Montreal H2G 3C9 (E-mail: sceptiqeibm.net. Web: 1516, 50080 Zaragoza El Investigador Esceptico. libertel.montreal.qc.ca/info/sceptiques). ISRAEL. Israel Skeptics Society, Philip Maimaros, Contact: Felix Ares De Bias. Gamez/Ares/Martinez. Chairman. P.O. Sox 8481, Jerusalem. (Fax: 972-2-567- P.O. Box 904, 20080 Donostia-San Sebastian. CHINA. China Association for Science and 0165, Web: http7nvww.anigrafix.com/psi). SWEDEN. Vetenskap och Folkbildning (Swedish Technology. Contact: Shen Zhenyu. Research Center, ITALY. CICAP (Comitato Italiano per il Controllo Skeptics), Sven Ove Hansson. Secretary. Box 185, 101 CAST, PO Box 8113, Beijing, China. Chinese Skeptics delle Affermazioni sul Paranormale), P.O. Box 23 Stockholm. Circle. Contact: Wu Xianghong. Box 4-doctor. 1117, 35100 Padova. Scienza & Paranormale. TAIWAN. Tim Holmes, P.O. Box 195. Tanzu. Taiwan. Renmin Univ. of China. Beijing 100872. Massimo Polidoro. Editor, P.O. Box 60, 27058 CZECH REPUBLIC. Czech Club of Skeptics. Dr. Ivan Voghera (PV). Tel. Fax: 39-426-22013.) UNITED KINGDOM. Skeptical Inquirer Representative. Michael J. Hutchinson, 10 Crescent View, Loughton, David. Vozova 5. Prague 3. 73000. The Czech JAPAN. Japan Skeptics, Jun Jugaku, Contact Person, Republic. Essex IG10 4PZ Association for Skeptical Enquiry Business Center for Academic Societies Japan. 16-9 (ASKE), Contact: Wayne Spencer. 15 Ramsden Wood ESTONIA. Contact: Indrek Rohtmets. Horisont. EE 0102 Honkomagome 5-chome. Bunkyo-Ku, Tokyo 113. Rd. Walsden, Todmorden, Lancaster OL14 7UD. E- Tallinn, Narva mm. 5. KAZAKHSTAN. Kazakhstan Commission for Inves­ mail: aske8doof3.demon.co.uk. The Skeptic maga­ EUROPEAN COUNCIL OF SKEPTICAL ORGANIZA­ tigation of Anomalous Phenomena (KCIAP), zine. Editors. Toby Howard and Steve Donnelly, P.O. TIONS. Amardeo Sarma,* Secretary, Postfach 1222. Contact: Sergey Efimov. Astrophysical Institute. Box 475. Manchester M60 2TH. (Email: D-64374 Rossdorf (Fax: +49 6154 81912). Kamenskoye Plato. Alma-Ata 480068, Kazakhstan toby8cs.man.ac.uk). United States

ALABAMA. Alabama Skeptics, Emory Kimbrough, COLORADO. Rocky Mountain Skeptics. Bela KENTUCKY. Kentucky Assn. of Science Educators 3550 Watermelon Road. Apt. 28A Northport, AL Scheiber.* Presdent. P.O. Box 7277. Boulder. CO and Skeptics (KASES). Chairman, Prof. Robert A. 35473 (205-759-2624). 80306 (Tel.: 303-449-7537. Fax: 303-447-8412, Web: Baker. 3495 Castleton Way North. Lexington, KY ARIZONA. Tucson Skeptics Inc. James McGaha. bcn.boulder.co.us/communrty/rms). 40502. Chairman. 5100 N. Sabino Foothills Dr.. Tucson. AZ D.C CAPITAL AREA. National Capital Area LOUISIANA. Baton Rouge Proponents of Rational 85715, Email: JMCGAHASPimaCC Pima EDU Skeptics, c/o D.W -Chip- Denman, 8006 Valley Inquiry and Scientific Methods (BR-PRISM). Dick Phoenix Skeptics, Michael Stackpole. Chairman. Street. Silver Spring. MD 20910. Schroth, Director. 425 Carriage Way, Baton Rouge. LA P.O. Box 60333. Phoenix. AZ 85082 FLORIDA. Tampa Bay Skeptics. Gary Posner, 1113 70808-4828 (504-766-4747). CALIFORNIA. Bay Area Skeptics. Wilma Russell. Normandy Trace Rd., Tampa, FL 33602 (813-221- MICHIGAN. Great Lakes Skeptics, Contact: Lorna J. Secretary, 17722 Buti Park Court. Castro Valley. CA 3533), E-mail: garypos8aol.com, Web address: Simmons. 31710 Cowan Road. Apt. 103, Westland, Ml 94S46. East Bay Skeptics Society. Daniel Sabsay. members.aol.com/tbayskeptAbs.html. 48185-2366 (734-525-5731). Tri-Cities Skeptics. President. 70 Yosemite Avenue »309, Oakland. CA GEORGIA. Georgia Skeptics. Becky Long. President. Contact: Gary Barker. 3596 Butternut St.. Saginaw, Ml 94611 (510-4200202) Sacramento Skeptics 2277 Winding Woods Dr.. Tucker. GA 30084. 48604 (517-799-4502), E-mail gary@earthvision Society. Terry Sandbek. 3550 Watt Ave.. Suite 3. ILLINOIS. Rational Examination Assoc, of Lincoln svsu.edu. Sacramento, CA 95821 (530-668-8551), E-mail: tsand- Land (REALL). David Bloomberg. Chairman. P.O. Box MINNESOTA. Minnesota Skeptics. Robert W. McCoy. bek8M0THER.COM San Diego Association for 20302, Springfield IL 62708 (217-726-5354). E-mail: S49 Turnpike Rd, Golden Valley. MN 55416. St. Rational Inquiry, Contact: Bruce R. Wallace. 945 chairman8reall.org. Kloud ESP Teaching Investigation Committee Fourth Avenue. San Diego. CA 92101 (619-233-1888. INDIANA. Indiana Skeptics. Robert Craig. Chair­ (SKEPTIO. Jerry Mertens. Coordinator. Psychology Fax: 619-696-9476). person. 5401 Hedgerow Drive. Indianapolis. IN 46226. Dept. St. Cloud State Univ. St. Cloud. MN 56301 MISSOURI. Kansas City Committee for Skeptical Millburn. NJ 07041. E-mail: nyask9liii.com. Westermn Philadelphia. PA 19124 (215-533-4677). Web: Inquiry, Verle Muhrer, Chairman. United Labor New York Skeptics, Tim Madigan, Chairman, 396•65 http7Avww.voicenet.com/-eric/phacl. Building. 6301 Rockhill Road. Suite 412, Kansas City. Rensch Road., Buffalo, NY 14228. TENNESSEE. Reality Fellowship, Contact: Carl MO 64131. Gateway Skeptics. Chairperson. Steve NORTH CAROLINA. Triad Area Skeptics ClubID,. Ledendecker. 2123 Stonybrook Rd.. Louisville, Best. 6943 Amherst Ave., University City, MO 63130. ke Contact: Eric Carlson. Physics Department. Wake TN 37777. NEW ENGLAND. New England Skeptical Society Forest University. Winston-Salem. NC 27109. TEXAS. Houston Association for Scientific (NESS). Contact: Steve Novella, MD. PO Box I85526. OHIO. South Shore Skeptics. Page Stephens. P.O. Bolox Thinking (HAST), Darrell Kachilla, P.O. Box 5*1314. Hamden, CT 06518, E-mail: ctskeptic8compuserve. 5083. Cleveland. OH 44101 (216-676-4859). E-mailail: Houston. TX 77254. North Texas Skeptics, Joe com. Connecticut Chapter. Contact: Jon Blumenfeld. hpst8earthlink.net. Association for Rationa'»' l Voelkering. President. P.O. Box 111794. Carrollton, E-mail: jonSjblumenfeld.com. Massachusetts Thinking (Cincinnati area), Joseph F. Gastright"'•. TX 75011-1794. Chapter, Contact: Laurence Moss, Ho & Moss, 68 Contact. 111 Wallace Ave., Covington. KY 4101ltd 4 Harrison Ave., 5th Floor, Boston MA 02111, E-mail: (606-581-7315) Central Ohioans for RationaIl WASHINGTON. The Society for Sensible Lmos8aol.com. New Hampshire Chapter, Contact: Inquiry (CORD, Michael S. Lehv, President, 78 Park Explanations. P.O. Box 7121. Seattle. WA 98133- J.J. Kane, 89 Glengarry Drive, Stratham, NH 03885 Drive. Columbus. OH 43209 (Fax: 614-258-1954). 2121. Tad Cook. Secretary. (E-mail: tad8ssc.com). Tel: 603-778-6873. WISCONSIN. Contact: Mike Neumann. 1835 N. 57th OREGON. Oregonians for Rationality, Josh Reese?*.• Street Milwaukee, Wl 53208 (414-453-7425. E-mail: NEW MEXICO. New Mexicans for Science and PresTSec.. 7555 Spring Valley Rd NW. Salem. OR mike9omnifest.uwm.edu). Reason, David E. Thomas, President. PO Bo< 1017. 97304 (503-364-6255), E-mail: joshr8ncn.com, Web!o: : Peralta. NM 87042. E-mail: det9rt66.com. John http7Avww.teleport.com/-or4think. • Member, CSICOP Executive Council Geohegan. Vice President. 450 Montclaire 5E. PENNSYLVANIA. Paranormal Investigatin„„g "Associate Member. CSICOP Executive Council Albuquerque. NM 87108. Committee of Pittsburgh (PICP). Richard Buschch., The organizations listed above have aims similar to NEW YORK. Inquiring Skeptics of Upper New York Chairman, 8209 Thompson Run Rd.. Pittsburgh. PPAA those of CSICOP but are independent and (ISUNY). Contact: D. Sager. PO Box 603. Altamont. NY 15237(412-366-1000). E-mail: mindful8telerama.comm. autonomous. Representatives of these organizations 12009. (518-861-6383). New York Area Skeptics Philadelphia Association for Critical Thinkinrig cannot speak on behalf of CSICOP. Please send updates (NYASk). Contact: Alan Weiss. 44 Parkview Drive, (PhACT). Bob Ghckman. President. PO Box 2197'70 to Barry Karr. P.O. Box 703. Amherst. NY 14226-0703.

SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL CONSULTANTS

George Agogino, Dept. of Anthropology, William Jarvis. professor of health promo­ Bela Scheiber." systems analyst. Boulder, Eastern New Mexico University tion and public health. Loma Linda Uni­ Colo. Bill G. Aldridge, executive director. National versity, School of Public Health Chris Scott statistician, London, England Science Teachers Assoc. I. W. Kelly, professor of psychology. Stuart D. Scott Jr., associate professor of Gary Bauslaugh. educational consultant, University of Saskatchewan anthropology, SUNY, Buffalo Center for Curriculum, Transfer and Richard H. Lange, M.D.. Mohawk Valley Erwin M. Segal, professor of psychology, Technology, Victoria, B.C., Canada Physician Health Plan, Schenectady, N.Y. SUNY, Buffalo Richard E. Berendzen, astronomer, Gerald A. Larue, professor of biblical history Carla Selby, anthropologist/archaeologist Washington, DC. and archaeology, University of So. Steven N. Shore, associate professor and Martin Bridgstock, lecturer, School of California. chair, Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, Science, Griffith University, Brisbane, Bernard J. Leikind, staff scientist. GA Indiana Univ. South Bend Australia Technologies Inc., San Diego Barry Singer, psychologist, Eugene, Oregon Richard Busch, magician, Pittsburgh, Pa. William M. London, consumer advocate. Waclaw Szybalski, professor, McArdle Shawn Carlson, physicist, San Diego, Calif. Fort Lee, New Jersey Laboratory, University of Wisconsin- Charles J. Cazeau, geologist. Deary, Idaho Thomas R. McDonough, lecturer in engi­ Madison Roger B. Culver, professor of astronomy, neering, Caltech, and SETI Coordinator of Ernest H. Taves. psychoanalyst, Cambridge, Colorado State Univ. the Planetary Society Massachusetts Felix Ares de Bias, professor of computer James E. McGaha, Major, USAF; pilot David E. Thomas, physicist, mathematician, science. University of Basque, San Sebastian, Joel A. Moskowitz. director of medical psy­ Peralta, New Mexico Spain chiatry, Calabasas Mental Health Services, Sarah G. Thomason, professor of linguistics, Los Angeles. Michael R. Dennett writer, investigator, University of Pittsburgh Jan Willem Nienhuys, mathematician. Univ. Federal Way, Washington Neil deGrasse Tyson, astrophysicist of Eindhoven, the Netherlands Sid Deutsch, consultant, Sarasota, Fla. Princeton University and the Hayden John W. Patterson, professor of materials J. Dommanget astronomer, Royale Planetarium science and engineering. Iowa State Observatory, Brussels, Belgium Richard Wiseman. Senior Research Fellow in University Nahum J. Duker, assistant professor of psychology, University of Hertfordshire Steven Pinker, professor and director of the pathology. Temple University Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, MIT Barbara Eisenstadt psychologist, educator, CSICOP James Pomerarrht Provost, and professor of clinician. East Greenbush, N.Y. Subcommittees cognitive and linguistic sciences. Brown Astrology Subcommittee: Chairman, I. W. John F. Fischer, forensic analyst, Orlando, Fla. Univ. Robert E. Funk, anthropologist. New York Kelly. Dept. of Educational Psychology. 28 Gary P. Posner. M.D., Tampa, Fla. State Museum S Science Service Campus Drive, Saskatoon, Sask., Canada. Daisie Radner, professor of philosophy, Eileen Gambrill, professor of social welfare, 57N-OX1 SUNY. Buffalo University of California at Berkeley Council for Media Integrity: Network Michael Radner, professor of philosophy, Sylvio Garattini, director, Mario Negri Director, Barry Karr. CSICOP, P.O. Box 703. McMaster University. Hamilton, Ontario. Amherst, NY 14226-0703. Pharmacology Institute, Milan, Italy Canada Health Claims Subcommittee: Co-chair­ Laurie Godfrey, anthropologist. University of Robert H. Romer, professor of physics, Massachusetts men. William Jarvis. Professor of Health Amherst College Promotion and Education. School of Public Gerald Goldin, mathematician, Rutgers Milton A. Rothman. physicist, Philadelphia. Health. Loma Linda University. Loma Linda, University, New Jersey Pa. CA 933S0, and Stephen Barren, M.D., P.O. Donald Goldsmith, astronomer; president. Karl Sabbagh, journalist. Richmond, Surrey, Box 1747, Allentown, PA 18105. Interstellar Media England Parapsychology Subcommittee: Chairman. Clyde F. Herreid, professor of biology. SUNY, Robert J. Samp, assistant professor of educa­ Ray Hyman.' Psychology Dept.. Univ. of Buffalo tion and medicine. University of Wisconsin- Oregon, Eugene, OR 97402. Terence M. Hines, professor of psychoogy, Madison UFO Subcommittee: Chairman, Philip J. Pace University, Pleasantville. N.Y. - Amardeo Sarma. • project supervisor, Klass.* 404 -N Street S.W.. Washington, Michael Hutchinson, author; SKEPTICAL EURESCOM; executive director, GWUP, D.C. 20024. INQUIRER representative. Europe Germany Philip A. lanna. assoc. professor of ast'on- Steven D. Schafersman, asst. professor of •Member. CSICOP Executive Council omy. Univ. of Virginia geology, Miami Univ., Ohio "Associate Member. CSICOP Executive Council Center^or Inquiry A NASA HiiTOle Space Telescope view of the faintest galaxies ever seen in the universe, taken "international in infrared light with the Near Irffrared Camera fend Multi-Object Spectrometer (NICMOS). P.O. Box 703 The pictu|* issued October 8, 1998, contains more ttoriiOO galaxies having spiral, elliptical ' Amherst, NY 14226 and irregul* shapes. Though most of these Tel.: (716) 636-1425 galaxies iv«Ml seen in 1995 when Hubble was used to takeWwisible-light deep exposure of the A same field, NICMOS uncovers many new objects. Center for Inquiry-Rockies .Most of these objects are too small and faint to be apparent in the full field NICMOS view. P.O. Box 2019 Boulder, CO 80306 Some of the reddest and^aintest of the newly detected objects may be over 12 billion light- Tel.: (303) 449-7537 years §way, as derived from a standard model of the universe. However, a powerful new genera­ Center for Inquiry-Midwest tion of telescopes will be needed to confirm the suspected distances of these objects. United Labor Building 6301 Rockhill Rd., Suite 412 The field of view 152 million light-years across, at its maximum. Yet, on a cosmic scale, it represents Kansas City, MO 64131 only a thin pencil beamjook across the universe. Tel.: (816) 822-9840 The area of sky is merely l/IOOth the apparent diameter on the full moon. Center for Inquiry-West Credit: Rodger I. Thomp son (University of 5521 Grosvenor Ave. Arizona), and NAim Los Angeles, CA 90066 Tel.: (310) 306-2847 Fax:(310)821-2610

Center for Inquiry-Moscow Professor Valerii A. Kuvakin 117421 Russia Moscow, Novatorov 18-2-2

THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATI OF CLAIMS OF THE PARANORMAL

The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal encourages the critical investigation of paranormal and fringe-science claims from a responsible, scientific point of view and disseminates factual information about the results of such inquiries to the scientific community, the media, and the public. It also promotes science and scientific inquiry, critical thinking, science education, and the use of reason in examining important issues. To carry out these objectives the Committee: Sponsors publications Encourages research by objective and impartial inquiry in areas where it Conducts public outreach efforts is needed Maintains an international network of people and groups interested in Convenes conferences and meetings critically examining paranormal, fringe-science, and other claims, and Conducts educational programs at all age levels in contributing to consumer education Does not reject claims on a priori grounds, antecedent to inquiry, but examines them objectively and carefully

I Committee is a nonprofit scientific and educational organization. J^k(»l)| | ! SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is its official journal.