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MNI POLITICAL RISK – US Election Polling Chartpack – August 28 by Tom Lake

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MNI POLITICAL RISK – US Election Polling Chartpack – August 28 by Tom Lake MNI POLITICAL RISK – US Election Polling Chartpack – August 28 by Tom Lake Chart 1. Electoral College Projections 270 Electoral College Votes Required To Win 28-Aug - 270ToWin 176 40 46 157 45 3 71 28-Aug - The Economist 182 77 60 55 38 45 81 28-Aug - FiveThirtyEight 175 51 52 75 60 63 62 28-Aug - PredictIt 183 29 56 51 15 79 3 122 28-Aug - Princeton Election Consortium 233 65 27 82 20 36 75 28-Aug - ElectoralVote 213 90 85 18 12 39 81 27-Aug - JHK Forecasts 188 60 71 56 41 22 100 03-Aug - RCP 118 51 43 211 23 29 63 03-Aug - CNN 203 65 100 45 125 03-Aug - NPR 194 103 71 45 125 26-Jul - Niskanen Center 212 66 40 95 3 122 24-Jul - Cook Political Report 188 30 90 43 62 21 104 17-Jul - Inside Elections 212 16 40 11 27 107 3 18 104 14-Jul - Sabato's Crystal Ball 183 29 56 66 79 48 77 09-Jul - US News & World Report 182 27 69 74 61 19 106 06-Jul - Politico 176 14 78 67 78 6 119 Solid Biden Likely Biden Lean Biden Tilt Biden Toss-Up Tilt Trump Lean Trump Likely Trump Solid Trump Source: 270toWin, The Economist, FiveThirtyEight.com, PredictIt, Princeton Election Consortium, ElectoralVote, JHK Forecasts, RCP, CNN, NPR, Niskanen Center, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, US News & World Report, Politico, MNI Chart 2. Betting Market Implied Probabilities For Presidential Chart 3. Net Favourability Ratings (Favourable Minus Election Winner, % Unfavourable), % 65 15 60 10 5 55 0 50 -5 45 -10 -15 40 -20 35 -25 30 -30 10-Mar 29-Apr 18-Jun 07-Aug 30-Jan 20-Mar 09-May 28-Jun 17-Aug Trump Biden Biden Trump Source: Economist/YouGov, Quinnipiac, Politico/MorningConsult, Gallup, Fox News, Harvard- Harris, NBC News/WSJ, Monmouth, Grinnell/Selzer, USA Today, Suffolk, Emerson, CNBC, Source: betdata.io, MNI CNN, ABC News/WaPo, NYT/Siena, Change Research (D), NPR/PBS/Marist, MNI Chart 4. Nationwide Opinion Polling, % Latest Updates 60 Betting Market: • Implied probability of a Biden win moves from 55.1% at last update on August 24 to 53.3% at the time of writing. In the same period, implied 55 probability of a Trump win has risen from 42.9% to 45.2%. Electoral College Projections: 50 • Total EC votes for Biden down to 262 according to 270ToWin, down from 278 on August 24. However, total Trump EC votes also down, from 169 to 119, with 157 votes now toss-ups. 45 • 538.com shifts 29 votes from Lean Biden to toss-up as it puts the state of Florida as a 50-50 contest. Still sees Biden as likely winner, gaining 278 EC votes even without toss-ups. 40 Nationwide Polling: • Six polls since last update all show Biden leading, with an average 50.3% 35 support to Trump’s 41.3%. Narrowest poll shows Biden leading 46-45%. State Polling: 30 10-Jan 29-Feb 19-Apr 08-Jun 28-Jul • Two latest polls for Florida from August 22 and 23 continue to show Biden leading Donald Trump, although by narrowing margins. Poll for Biden Trump CNBC/Change (D) has Biden on 49% to Trump’s 46%. This is compared Source: Economist/YouGov, Quinnipiac, Politico/MorningConsult, Gallup, Fox to 50% for Biden and 44% for Trump in the pollster’s August 9 survey. News, Harvard-Harris, NBC News/WSJ, Monmouth, Grinnell/Selzer, USA Today, • Conflicting polls from Wisconsin on August 23. Biden leads 49-44% in a Suffolk, Emerson, CNBC, CNN, ABC News/WaPo, NYT/Siena, Change Research (D), NPR/PBS/Marist, USC Dornsife, Rasmussen Reports, The Hill/HarrisX, CNBC/Change Research (D) poll, while Trump leads 46-45% in a GBAO,, MNI Trafalgar Group (R) poll. Swing State Presidential Polling Chart Pack, %, Number of Electoral College Votes Per State In () Arizona (11) Florida (29) Georgia (16) 54 60 52 52 50 55 50 48 48 50 46 46 44 45 44 42 40 42 40 40 38 35 29-Feb 19-Apr 08-Jun 28-Jul 29-Feb 19-Apr 08-Jun 28-Jul 29-Feb 19-Apr 08-Jun 28-Jul Iowa (6) Maine - Statewide (3) Maine - 2nd District (1) 55 55 50 50 50 45 45 45 40 40 40 35 35 35 20-Jan 10-Mar 29-Apr 18-Jun 07-Aug 02-Jul 12-Jul 22-Jul 01-Aug 23-Jul 28-Jul 02-Aug 07-Aug 12-Aug Source: Emerson, CNBC/Change Research (D), Trafalgar Group (R), OH Predictive Insights, CNN, NBC/Marist, CBS/YouGov, Gravis, NYT/Siena, Fox News, Monmouth, Univision/ASU, PPP (D), Mason-Dixon, Quinnipiac, St Pete Polls, TIPP, Florida Atlantic University, UNF, Landmark Communications, SurveyUSA, HIT Strategies (D), Morning Consult, Data for Progress, David Binder Research, RMG Research, Spry Strategies/American Principles Project, Civiqs/Daily Kos, GBAO Strategies, Selzer/Des Moines Register, Critical Insights, Colby College/Social Sphere, PPP/AFSCME, University of Wisconsin-Madison/YouGov, EPIC-MRA, CNN-SRSS, Redfield & Wilton Strategies, Swing State Presidential Polling Chart Pack, %, Number of Electoral College Votes Per State In () Michigan (16) Minnesota (10) New Hampshire (4) 60 60 55 55 55 50 50 50 45 45 45 40 40 40 35 30 35 35 14-Feb 04-Apr 24-May 13-Jul 19-May 08-Jun 28-Jun 18-Jul 07-Aug 20-Jan 10-Mar 29-Apr 18-Jun 07-Aug North Carolina (14) Ohio (18) Pennsylvania (20) 55 55 55 50 50 50 45 45 45 40 40 35 40 35 14-Feb 04-Apr 24-May 13-Jul 05-Mar 24-Apr 13-Jun 02-Aug 14-Feb 04-Apr 24-May 13-Jul Source: Economist/YouGov, Quinnipiac, Politico/MorningConsult, Gallup, Fox News, Harvard-Harris, NBC News/WSJ, Monmouth, Grinnell/Selzer, USA Today, Suffolk, Emerson, CNBC, CNN, ABC News/WaPo, NYT/Siena, Change Research (D), NPR/PBS/Marist, MNI Swing State Presidential Polling Chart Pack, %, Number of Electoral College Votes Per State In () Texas (38) Virginia (13) Wisconsin (10) 55 55 60 55 50 50 50 45 45 45 40 40 35 30 40 35 14-Feb 04-Apr 24-May 13-Jul 04-Feb 25-Mar 14-May 03-Jul 14-Feb 04-Apr 24-May 13-Jul Source: Economist/YouGov, Quinnipiac, Politico/MorningConsult, Gallup, Fox News, Harvard-Harris, NBC News/WSJ, Monmouth, Grinnell/Selzer, USA Today, Suffolk, Emerson, CNBC, CNN, ABC News/WaPo, NYT/Siena, Change Research (D), NPR/PBS/Marist, MNI Top Senate Election Races Polling Chart Pack, % Alabama Senate Arizona Senate Colorado Senate 60 55 55 55 50 50 50 45 45 45 40 40 40 35 35 35 30 30 30 14-May 03-Jun 23-Jun 13-Jul 02-Aug 09-Feb 30-Mar 19-May 08-Jul 27-Aug 14-Apr 04-May 24-May 13-Jun 03-Jul 23-Jul Jones (D-Inc.) Tuberville (R) McSally (R-Inc.) Kelly (D) Gardner (R-Inc.) Hickenlooper (D) Top Senate Election Races Polling Chart Pack, % Georgia Senate Georgia Special Senate 50 40 35 30 45 25 20 15 40 10 5 35 0 20-Mar 09-May 28-Jun 17-Aug 14-Feb 05-Mar 25-Mar 14-Apr 04-May 24-May 13-Jun 03-Jul 23-Jul 12-Aug Perdue (R-Inc.) Ossoff (D) Collins (R) Gideon (D) Loeffler (R-Inc.) Tarver (D) Liberman (D) Maine Senate Michigan Senate Montana Senate 55 55 55 50 50 50 45 45 45 40 40 40 35 35 35 30 30 30 25 10-Mar 29-Apr 18-Jun 07-Aug 09-Feb 30-Mar 19-May 08-Jul 05-Mar 24-Apr 13-Jun 02-Aug Collins (R-Inc.) Gideon (D) James (R) Peters (D-Inc.) Daines (R-Inc.) Bullock (D) North Carolina Senate Texas Senate 55 50 50 45 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 24-Feb 14-Apr 03-Jun 23-Jul 21-Jun 01-Jul 11-Jul 21-Jul 31-Jul 10-Aug Tillis (R-Inc.) Cunningham (D) Cornyn (R-Inc.) Hegar (D) Source: AL Daily News/Mason-Dixon, FM3 Research (D), Cygnal (R), ALG Research (D), WPA Intelligence/Club for Growth/Politico (R), Auburn University at Montgomery, Morning Consult, HighGround Public Affairs, PPP, OH Predictive Insights, Univision/Arizona State University, Monmouth University, NBC News/Marist, Fox News, Civiqs/Daily Kos, NYT/Siena College, Redfield & Wilton Strategies, Change Research (D), Global Strategy Group (D), Gravis Marketing (R), Data Orbital, Spry Strategies/APP, CNN/SSRS, Data for Progress, OnMessage/Heritage Action (R), Emerson College, CNBC, Montana State University Bozeman, Keating Research (D), The Progress Campaign (D), Public Opinion Strategies (R), BK Strategies (R), Garin-Hart-Yank/Ossoff (D), YouGov/CBS, Battleground Connect (R), University of Georgia, Cygnal (R), MRG (D), HIT Strategies (D), SurveyUSA, Colby College/Social Sphere, Tarrance Group/1820 PAC (R), Victory Geek (D), Moore Information (R), RMG Research, Quinnipiac University, Critical Insights, Firehouse/0ptimus, Marketing Resource Group (R), Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R), EPIC- MRA, Kiaer Research, American Greatness/TIPP (R), University of Montana, Harper Polling/Civitas (R), Meredith College, East Carolina University, Meeting Street Insights (R), Cardinal Point Analytics (R), Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler, Global Strategy Group/Latino Decisions (D), Rice University/YouGov MNI .
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