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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Election Polling Chartpack – September 4 by Tom Lake

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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Election Polling Chartpack – September 4 by Tom Lake MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Election Polling Chartpack – September 4 by Tom Lake Chart 1. Electoral College Projections 270 Electoral College Votes Required To Win 4-Sep - 270ToWin 176 36 67 143 43 10 63 4-Sep - The Economist 182 51 86 49 44 39 87 4-Sep - FiveThirtyEight 175 51 52 75 60 52 73 4-Sep - PredictIt 183 35 72 29 15 79 6 119 4-Sep - Princeton Election Consortium 242 77 53 34 21 39 72 4-Sep - OurProgress 204 75 11 122 31 95 4-Sep - ElectoralVote 234 36 80 38 12 57 81 4-Sep - Plural Vote 210 6 92 27 22 56 31 94 3-Sep - DecisionDeskHQ 182 41 85 26 78 25 101 3-Sep - JHK Forecasts 188 50 80 39 56 15 110 03-Aug - RCP 118 51 43 211 23 29 63 03-Aug - CNN 203 65 100 45 125 03-Aug - NPR 194 103 71 45 125 26-Jul - Niskanen Center 212 66 40 95 3 122 24-Jul - Cook Political Report 188 30 90 43 62 21 104 17-Jul - Inside Elections 212 16 40 11 27 107 3 18 104 14-Jul - Sabato's Crystal Ball 183 29 56 66 79 48 77 09-Jul - US News & World Report 182 27 69 74 61 19 106 06-Jul - Politico 176 14 78 67 78 6 119 Solid Biden Likely Biden Lean Biden Tilt Biden Toss-Up Tilt Trump Lean Trump Likely Trump Solid Trump Source: 270toWin, The Economist, FiveThirtyEight.com, PredictIt, Princeton Election Consortium, ElectoralVote, JHK Forecasts, RCP, CNN, NPR, Niskanen Center, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, US News & World Report, Politico, Decision Desk HQ, Plural Vote, Our Progress, MNI Chart 2. Betting Market Implied Probabilities For Presidential Chart 3. Net Favourability Ratings (Favourable Minus Election Winner, % Unfavourable), % 65 15 10 60 5 55 0 50 -5 -10 45 -15 40 -20 35 -25 -30 30 30-Jan 20-Mar 09-May 28-Jun 17-Aug 10-Mar 29-Apr 18-Jun 07-Aug Trump Biden Biden Trump Source: Economist/YouGov, Quinnipiac, Politico/MorningConsult, Gallup, Fox News, Harvard- Harris, NBC News/WSJ, Monmouth, Grinnell/Selzer, USA Today, Suffolk, Emerson, CNBC, Source: betdata.io, MNI CNN, ABC News/WaPo, NYT/Siena, Change Research (D), NPR/PBS/Marist, YouGov, MNI Chart 4. Nationwide Opinion Polling, % Latest Updates 60 Betting Market: • Implied probability of a Biden win rises from 49.5% at last update on 55 September 2 to 49.9% at the time of writing. In the same period, implied probability of a Trump win has fallen from 49.3% to 48.3%. Electoral College Projections: 50 • 270toWin: 17 votes from toss-up - 12 to Lean Biden, 5 to Lean Trump. • Economist: Lean Biden gains 11 votes, Toss-Up gains 7, Lean Trump 45 loses 18. • PredicIt: Likely Biden gains 8 votes, Lean Biden gains 14, Tilt Biden loses 22, Likely Trump gains 3, Safe Trump loses 3. 40 • PEC: Likely Biden gains 10, Leans Biden gains 43, Toss-Up loses 53. Nationwide Polling: 35 • Eleven polls added since last update all show Biden leading, with an average 49.9% support to Trump’s 41.9%. Narrowest poll in that period shows Biden leading 49-45% from Rasmussen, a pollster that 30 consistently has Trump at a higher level of support than other pollsters. 10-Jan 29-Feb 19-Apr 08-Jun 28-Jul Swing State Polling: Biden Trump • Fox News releases a series of polls showing Joe Biden leading in Source: Economist/YouGov, Quinnipiac, Politico/MorningConsult, Gallup, Fox Arizona (+9%), North Carolina (+4%) and Wisconsin (+8%). News, Harvard-Harris, NBC News/WSJ, Monmouth, Grinnell/Selzer, USA Today, • Two Florida polls show a close race, with both Quinnipiac and Trafalgar Suffolk, Emerson, CNBC, CNN, ABC News/WaPo, NYT/Siena, Change Research (D), NPR/PBS/Marist, USC Dornsife, Rasmussen Reports, The Hill/HarrisX, GBAO, (R) giving Biden a 3% lead. Redfield & Wilton Strategies, Ipsos/Reuters, Leger, Atlas Intel, Zogby MNI Swing State Presidential Polling Chart Pack, %, Number of Electoral College Votes Per State In () Arizona (11) Florida (29) Georgia (16) 54 60 52 52 55 50 50 48 50 48 46 46 45 44 44 42 40 42 40 40 35 38 29-Feb 19-Apr 08-Jun 28-Jul 29-Feb 19-Apr 08-Jun 28-Jul 29-Feb 19-Apr 08-Jun 28-Jul Iowa (6) Maine (Statewide) Maine (Second Congressional 55 55 District) 50 50 50 45 45 45 40 40 40 35 35 35 20-Jan 10-Mar 29-Apr 18-Jun 07-Aug 02-Jul 12-Jul 22-Jul 01-Aug 23-Jul 28-Jul 02-Aug 07-Aug 12-Aug Source: Emerson, CNBC/Change Research (D), Trafalgar Group (R), OH Predictive Insights, CNN, NBC/Marist, CBS/YouGov, Gravis, NYT/Siena, Fox News, Monmouth, Univision/ASU, PPP (D), Mason-Dixon, Quinnipiac, St Pete Polls, TIPP, Florida Atlantic University, UNF, Landmark Communications, SurveyUSA, HIT Strategies (D), Morning Consult, Data for Progress, David Binder Research, RMG Research, Spry Strategies/American Principles Project, Civiqs/Daily Kos, GBAO Strategies, Selzer/Des Moines Register, Critical Insights, Colby College/Social Sphere, PPP/AFSCME, University of Wisconsin-Madison/YouGov, EPIC-MRA, CNN-SRSS, Redfield & Wilton Strategies, Swing State Presidential Polling Chart Pack, %, Number of Electoral College Votes Per State In () Michigan (16) Minnesota (10) New Hampshire (4) 60 60 55 55 55 50 50 50 45 45 45 40 40 35 40 30 35 35 14-Feb 04-Apr 24-May 13-Jul 01-Sep 19-May 08-Jun 28-Jun 18-Jul 07-Aug 27-Aug 20-Jan 10-Mar 29-Apr 18-Jun 07-Aug North Carolina (15) Ohio (18) Pennsylvania (20) 55 55 55 50 50 50 45 45 45 40 40 35 40 35 14-Feb 04-Apr 24-May 13-Jul 01-Sep 05-Mar 24-Apr 13-Jun 02-Aug 14-Feb 04-Apr 24-May 13-Jul 01-Sep Source: Economist/YouGov, Quinnipiac, Politico/MorningConsult, Gallup, Fox News, Harvard-Harris, NBC News/WSJ, Monmouth, Grinnell/Selzer, USA Today, Suffolk, Emerson, CNBC, CNN, ABC News/WaPo, NYT/Siena, Change Research (D), NPR/PBS/Marist, MNI Swing State Presidential Polling Chart Pack, %, Number of Electoral College Votes Per State In () Virginia (13) Texas (38) Wisconsin (10) 55 55 60 50 55 50 50 45 45 45 40 40 35 30 40 35 04-Feb 25-Mar 14-May 03-Jul 22-Aug 14-Feb 04-Apr 24-May 13-Jul 14-Feb 04-Apr 24-May 13-Jul 01-Sep Source: Economist/YouGov, Quinnipiac, Politico/MorningConsult, Gallup, Fox News, Harvard-Harris, NBC News/WSJ, Monmouth, Grinnell/Selzer, USA Today, Suffolk, Emerson, CNBC, CNN, ABC News/WaPo, NYT/Siena, Change Research (D), NPR/PBS/Marist, MNI Top Senate Election Races Polling Chart Pack, % Alabama Senate Arizona Senate Colorado Senate 55 60 60 50 55 55 50 50 45 45 45 40 40 40 35 35 35 30 30 30 14-May 03-Jun 23-Jun 13-Jul 02-Aug 09-Feb 30-Mar 19-May 08-Jul 27-Aug 14-Apr 03-Jun 23-Jul 11-Sep Jones (D-Inc.) Tuberville (R) McSally (R-Inc.) Kelly (D) Gardner (R-Inc.) Hickenlooper (D) Top Senate Election Races Polling Chart Pack, % Georgia Senate Georgia Special Senate 50 40 35 30 45 25 20 15 40 10 5 35 0 20-Mar 09-May 28-Jun 17-Aug 14-Feb 05-Mar 25-Mar 14-Apr 04-May 24-May 13-Jun 03-Jul 23-Jul 12-Aug Perdue (R-Inc.) Ossoff (D) Collins (R) Gideon (D) Loeffler (R-Inc.) Tarver (D) Liberman (D) Maine Senate Michigan Senate Montana Senate 55 55 55 50 50 50 45 45 45 40 40 40 35 35 35 30 30 30 25 10-Mar 29-Apr 18-Jun 07-Aug 09-Feb 30-Mar 19-May 08-Jul 05-Mar 24-Apr 13-Jun 02-Aug Collins (R-Inc.) Gideon (D) James (R) Peters (D-Inc.) Daines (R-Inc.) Bullock (D) North Carolina Senate Texas Senate 55 50 50 45 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 24-Feb 15-Mar 04-Apr 24-Apr 14-May 03-Jun 23-Jun 13-Jul 02-Aug 22-Aug 11-Sep 21-Jun 01-Jul 11-Jul 21-Jul 31-Jul 10-Aug Tillis (R-Inc.) Cunningham (D) Cornyn (R-Inc.) Hegar (D) Source: AL Daily News/Mason-Dixon, FM3 Research (D), Cygnal (R), ALG Research (D), WPA Intelligence/Club for Growth/Politico (R), Auburn University at Montgomery, Morning Consult, HighGround Public Affairs, PPP, OH Predictive Insights, Univision/Arizona State University, Monmouth University, NBC News/Marist, Fox News, Civiqs/Daily Kos, NYT/Siena College, Redfield & Wilton Strategies, Change Research (D), Global Strategy Group (D), Gravis Marketing (R), Data Orbital, Spry Strategies/APP, CNN/SSRS, Data for Progress, OnMessage/Heritage Action (R), Emerson College, CNBC, Montana State University Bozeman, Keating Research (D), The Progress Campaign (D), Public Opinion Strategies (R), BK Strategies (R), Garin-Hart-Yank/Ossoff (D), YouGov/CBS, Battleground Connect (R), University of Georgia, Cygnal (R), MRG (D), HIT Strategies (D), SurveyUSA, Colby College/Social Sphere, Tarrance Group/1820 PAC (R), Victory Geek (D), Moore Information (R), RMG Research, Quinnipiac University, Critical Insights, Firehouse/0ptimus, Marketing Resource Group (R), Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R), EPIC- MRA, Kiaer Research, American Greatness/TIPP (R), University of Montana, Harper Polling/Civitas (R), Meredith College, East Carolina University, Meeting Street Insights (R), Cardinal Point Analytics (R), Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler, Global Strategy Group/Latino Decisions (D), Rice University/YouGov MNI .
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