This issue brought to you by The Senate Deserves Your Attention By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin SEPTEMBER 18, 2020 VOLUME 4, NO. 18 While the race for the White House dominates the news, the fight for the Senate is closer. The easiest thing to do after 2016 would be to declare every race with 2020 Senate Ratings President Donald Trump on the ballot as a toss-up. But that would be at the expense of the data. After analyzing polling at the national, state Toss-Up and congressional district level, our current projection gives Joe Biden a Collins (R-Maine) Ernst (R-Iowa) 319-187 advantage in the Electoral College with 32 votes in the Toss-up Daines (R-Mont.) Tillis (R-N.C.) category. That doesn’t mean the presidential race is over, but there’s more certainty about who is leading than which party will control the Senate. Tilt Democratic Tilt Republican Our current Senate outlook is a Democratic net gain of 3-5 seats. That puts Gardner (R-Colo.) Perdue (R-Ga.) Democratic control (which requires a three-seat net gain with a White House McSally (R-Ariz.) victory or a four-seat net gain for a majority) within our range of most likely Lean Democratic Lean Republican outcomes. But if the results dip one seat below our projection (Democrats only gain two seats) then Republicans will maintain their majority. And right Peters (D-Mich.) KS Open (Roberts, R) now there are a handful of races, specifically North Carolina, Maine, Iowa, Cornyn (R-Texas) Montana, Georgia, and even South Carolina, where a shift of a few points is Graham (R-S.C.)# the difference between a Republican majority and a Democratic landslide. Loeffler (R-Ga.) The fight for the House hasn’t fundamentally changed in many months. Jones (D-Ala.) In almost every scenario, Democrats will maintain control of the House. The more pertinent question is whether they can expand their majority. Our new Likely Democratic Likely Republican House projection is a range of no net change to a Democratic gain of 11 seats. Sullivan (R-Alaska) Gubernatorial races have continued to fly under the radar. Just 11 Solid Democratic Solid Republican seats are up this year, four of which are even slightly competitive, and though governors had a brief moment in the spotlight as the virus first NM Open (Udall, D) TN Open (Alexander, R) swept through the country, attention has largely shifted away from Booker (D-N.J.) WY Open (Enzi, R) individual states to federal-level efforts. Our current gubernatorial Coons (D-Del.) Cassidy (R-La.) projection is a range of no net change to a Republican gain of one. Durbin (D-Ill.) Capito (R-W.Va.) “Tightening” has been the buzzword of the last few weeks, Markey (D-Mass.) Cotton (R-Ark.) specifically referencing the presidential race after the conventions. But Merkley (D-Ore.) Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) while Trump’s standing may have improved by a point or so nationally, and by a couple points in some places, the fundamental trajectory of the Reed (D-R.I.) Inhofe (R-Okla.) elections remains the same. Shaheen (D-N.H.) McConnell (R-Ky.) On the current path, Democrats are positioned to have a good set of Smith (D-Minn.) Risch (R-Idaho) 2020 elections by winning the White House, narrowly controlling the Warner (D-Va.) Rounds (R-S.D.) Senate, and keeping the House. GOP DEM Sasse (R-Neb.) That political prognosis increases the pressure on Trump to seek a 116th Congress 53 47 knockout punch during the upcoming debates. But partisan opinion Not up this cycle 30 35 has hardened around the president to the point that it’s difficult for individual news events to make a big impact. And Republicans’ window Currently Solid 11 10 of opportunity to change the dynamic of the key races is shorter than Competitive 12 2 the seven weeks before Nov. 3 because of the massive number of mail-in Takeovers in Italics, # moved benefiting Democrats, * moved benefiting Republicans ballots cast before Election Day. InsideElections.com Presidential Battlegrounds: Texas By Ryan Matsumoto In the recent documentary film Boys State, a thousand high Democrats were especially encouraged by results at the congressional schoolers from across Texas gather in Austin for a whirlwind week of level, where they flipped two suburban Romney-Clinton districts. In mock elections for various state offices including governor. Although the 7th District, based in Houston, Democrat Lizzie Fletcher defeated the political parties and platforms are fictional, the participants Republican Rep. John Culberson by 5 points. In the 32nd District, based campaigning for office often take conservative stances on real-life in Dallas, Democrat Colin Allred defeated Republican Rep. Pete Sessions issues like gun rights and abortion to appeal to their peers, who skew by 7 points. Beyond these two flips, they were also encouraged by the heavily conservative. fact that they came within 5 points in six other Republican-held districts: If current political trends in Texas continue, it’s very possible that this the 10th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, and 31st. movie will soon become a look at the Texas of yesterday. Demographics Texas in Recent Presidential Elections Texas is a racially diverse state at 41 percent Non-Hispanic White, Texas has voted to the right of the nation in recent presidential 40 percent Hispanic or Latino, 13 percent Black, 5 percent Asian, 1 elections, but has become more competitive recently. In 2008, John percent American Indian, and 2 percent two or more races. However, it’s McCain won the state by 12 points while losing nationally by 7 points. important to note that the Texas electorate differs considerably from the In 2012, Mitt Romney won Texas by 16 points while losing nationally by overall population. According to Census estimates, the Texas electorate 4 points. In 2016, Texas voted for President Donald Trump by 9 points in 2016 was approximately 61 percent Non-Hispanic White, 20 percent while Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote by 2 points. Hispanic or Latino, 14 percent Black, and 4 percent Asian. There are Put another way, Texas was 19 points more Republican than the several reasons why Latinos make up a much lower percentage of the nation in 2008, 20 points more Republican than the nation in 2012, and electorate than the population overall. First, the Latino population skews 11 points more Republican than the nation in 2016. The last time younger — younger people are less likely to vote and minors cannot a Democrat carried Texas in a presidential election was Jimmy Carter vote at all. Second, many Texas Latinos are immigrants who have not yet in 1976. gained citizenship. Third, voter turnout tends to be lower among Latinos Texas has also leaned Republican in recent downballot elections. than Non-Hispanic Whites. The Inside Elections Baseline score, which measures average partisan Like other southern states, Texas politics is racially polarized, performance in Texas over the past four election cycles, is 55.6 percent evidenced by Trump winning white voters 69 percent to 26 percent and Republican and 41.1 percent Democratic. Clinton winning nonwhite voters 66 percent to 29 percent, according to exit polls. Trump did exceptionally well with white voters without a The 2018 Midterm Elections college degree, winning them 76 percent to 21 percent. One of the most electrifying contests for Democrats in 2018 was the According to Census estimates, 29 percent of adults in Texas have a Texas Senate race. Ultimately, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz prevailed over bachelor’s degree or higher, slightly lower than the country as a whole. Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke by just 3 points, although O’Rourke’s Median household income in the state is $59,570, slightly lower than the performance was the strongest for a Democrat statewide since 1998. nationwide median of $60,293. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott won his re-election bid with a more comfortable 13-point margin over Democrat Lupe Valdez. Democratic Gains with College-Educated Whites Republicans also won every state executive and judicial race that One big reason Texas is becoming competitive is that Democrats are cycle, although the margins for Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, making gains with college-educated white voters. Trump won college- and Commissioner of Agriculture were within 5 points. Although educated whites in Texas 62 percent to 31 percent according to 2016 exit Democrats failed to win any row offices, they did much better than in the polls, so Democrats definitely still have room to grow. 2014 midterm elections, when they lost almost every statewide election In Texas, the counties with the highest percent of college graduates by more than 20 points. tend to be suburban counties in the major metropolitan areas (Dallas- Stuart Rothenberg @InsideElections Senior Editor [email protected] facebook.com/InsideElections Ryan Matsumoto Bradley Wascher Contributing Analyst Contributing Analyst [email protected] [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Jacob Rubashkin Robert Yoon Will Taylor Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Contributing Reporter & Analyst Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] @nathanlgonzales @jacobrubashkin 810 7th Street NE • Washington, DC 20002 • 202-546-2822 Copyright 2020, Inside Elections LLC. All rights reserved. 2 September 18, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin). One example is Collin Kos Elections, about 29 percent of the citizen voting age population County, the sixth largest county by population statewide. It includes the is Latino. If Democrats can get more of these residents to register to northern suburbs of Dallas (e.g. Plano, McKinney, and Frisco) and about vote and show up at the polls, that would go a long way to boost their 52 percent of its adults have a bachelor’s degree or higher (the highest chances.