sign in sign up
<<
Home , Alaska Democratic Party, Alek Skarlatos, Andru Volinsky, Burgess Owens, Cal Cunningham, Dan Feltes

This issue brought to you by

The Senate Deserves Your Attention

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin SEPTEMBER 18, 2020 VOLUME 4, NO. 18 While the race for the White House dominates the news, the fight for the Senate is closer. The easiest thing to do after 2016 would be to declare every race with 2020 Senate Ratings President on the as a toss-up. But that would be at the expense of the data. After analyzing polling at the national, state Toss-Up and congressional district level, our current projection gives a Collins (R-Maine) Ernst (R-Iowa) 319-187 advantage in the Electoral College with 32 votes in the Toss-up Daines (R-Mont.) Tillis (R-N.C.) category. That doesn’t mean the presidential race is over, but there’s more certainty about who is leading than which party will control the Senate. Tilt Democratic Tilt Republican Our current Senate outlook is a Democratic net gain of 3-5 seats. That puts Gardner (R-Colo.) Perdue (R-Ga.) Democratic control (which requires a three-seat net gain with a White House McSally (R-Ariz.) victory or a four-seat net gain for a majority) within our range of most likely Lean Democratic Lean Republican outcomes. But if the results dip one seat below our projection (Democrats only gain two seats) then Republicans will maintain their majority. And right Peters (D-Mich.) KS Open (Roberts, R) now there are a handful of races, specifically , Maine, Iowa, Cornyn (R-Texas) Montana, , and even , where a shift of a few points is Graham (R-S.C.)# the difference between a Republican majority and a Democratic landslide. Loeffler (R-Ga.) The fight for the House hasn’t fundamentally changed in many months. Jones (D-Ala.) In almost every scenario, Democrats will maintain control of the House. The more pertinent question is whether they can expand their majority. Our new Likely Democratic Likely Republican House projection is a range of no net change to a Democratic gain of 11 seats. Sullivan (R-) Gubernatorial races have continued to fly under the radar. Just 11 Solid Democratic Solid Republican seats are up this year, four of which are even slightly competitive, and though governors had a brief moment in the spotlight as the virus first NM Open (Udall, D) TN Open (Alexander, R) swept through the country, attention has largely shifted away from Booker (D-N.J.) WY Open (Enzi, R) individual states to federal-level efforts. Our current gubernatorial Coons (D-Del.) Cassidy (R-La.) projection is a range of no net change to a Republican gain of one. Durbin (D-Ill.) Capito (R-W.Va.) “Tightening” has been the buzzword of the last few weeks, Markey (D-Mass.) Cotton (R-Ark.) specifically referencing the presidential race after the conventions. But Merkley (D-Ore.) Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) while Trump’s standing may have improved by a point or so nationally, and by a couple points in some places, the fundamental trajectory of the Reed (D-R.I.) Inhofe (R-Okla.) elections remains the same. Shaheen (D-N.H.) McConnell (R-Ky.) On the current path, Democrats are positioned to have a good set of Smith (D-Minn.) Risch (R-) 2020 elections by winning the White House, narrowly controlling the Warner (D-Va.) Rounds (R-S.D.) Senate, and keeping the House. GOP DEM Sasse (R-Neb.) That political prognosis increases the pressure on Trump to seek a 116th Congress 53 47 knockout punch during the upcoming debates. But partisan opinion Not up this cycle 30 35 has hardened around the president to the point that it’s difficult for individual news events to make a big impact. And Republicans’ window Currently Solid 11 10 of opportunity to change the dynamic of the key races is shorter than Competitive 12 2 the seven weeks before Nov. 3 because of the massive number of mail-in Takeovers in Italics, # moved benefiting Democrats, * moved benefiting Republicans cast before Election Day.

InsideElections.com Presidential Battlegrounds: Texas By Ryan Matsumoto

In the recent documentary filmBoys State, a thousand high Democrats were especially encouraged by results at the congressional schoolers from across Texas gather in Austin for a whirlwind week of level, where they flipped two suburban Romney-Clinton districts. In mock elections for various state offices including governor. Although the 7th District, based in Houston, Democrat defeated the political parties and platforms are fictional, the participants Republican Rep. John Culberson by 5 points. In the 32nd District, based campaigning for office often take conservative stances on real-life in Dallas, Democrat defeated Republican Rep. issues like gun rights and abortion to appeal to their peers, who skew by 7 points. Beyond these two flips, they were also encouraged by the heavily conservative. fact that they came within 5 points in six other Republican-held districts: If current political trends in Texas continue, it’s very possible that this the 10th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, and 31st. movie will soon become a look at the Texas of yesterday. Demographics Texas in Recent Presidential Elections Texas is a racially diverse state at 41 percent Non-Hispanic White, Texas has voted to the right of the nation in recent presidential 40 percent Hispanic or Latino, 13 percent Black, 5 percent Asian, 1 elections, but has become more competitive recently. In 2008, John percent American Indian, and 2 percent two or more races. However, it’s McCain won the state by 12 points while losing nationally by 7 points. important to note that the Texas electorate differs considerably from the In 2012, won Texas by 16 points while losing nationally by overall population. According to Census estimates, the Texas electorate 4 points. In 2016, Texas voted for President Donald Trump by 9 points in 2016 was approximately 61 percent Non-Hispanic White, 20 percent while won the national popular vote by 2 points. Hispanic or Latino, 14 percent Black, and 4 percent Asian. There are Put another way, Texas was 19 points more Republican than the several reasons why Latinos make up a much lower percentage of the nation in 2008, 20 points more Republican than the nation in 2012, and electorate than the population overall. First, the Latino population skews 11 points more Republican than the nation in 2016. The last time younger — younger people are less likely to vote and minors cannot a Democrat carried Texas in a presidential election was vote at all. Second, many Texas Latinos are immigrants who have not yet in 1976. gained citizenship. Third, tends to be lower among Latinos Texas has also leaned Republican in recent downballot elections. than Non-Hispanic Whites. The Inside Elections Baseline score, which measures average partisan Like other southern states, Texas politics is racially polarized, performance in Texas over the past four election cycles, is 55.6 percent evidenced by Trump winning white voters 69 percent to 26 percent and Republican and 41.1 percent Democratic. Clinton winning nonwhite voters 66 percent to 29 percent, according to exit polls. Trump did exceptionally well with white voters without a The 2018 Midterm Elections college degree, winning them 76 percent to 21 percent. One of the most electrifying contests for Democrats in 2018 was the According to Census estimates, 29 percent of adults in Texas have a race. Ultimately, Republican Sen. prevailed over bachelor’s degree or higher, slightly lower than the country as a whole. Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke by just 3 points, although O’Rourke’s Median household income in the state is $59,570, slightly lower than the performance was the strongest for a Democrat statewide since 1998. nationwide median of $60,293. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott won his re-election bid with a more comfortable 13-point margin over Democrat Lupe Valdez. Democratic Gains with College-Educated Whites Republicans also won every state executive and judicial race that One big reason Texas is becoming competitive is that Democrats are cycle, although the margins for Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, making gains with college-educated white voters. Trump won college- and Commissioner of Agriculture were within 5 points. Although educated whites in Texas 62 percent to 31 percent according to 2016 exit Democrats failed to win any row offices, they did much better than in the polls, so Democrats definitely still have room to grow. 2014 midterm elections, when they lost almost every statewide election In Texas, the counties with the highest percent of college graduates by more than 20 points. tend to be suburban counties in the major metropolitan areas (Dallas-

Stuart Rothenberg @InsideElections Senior Editor [email protected] facebook.com/InsideElections Ryan Matsumoto Bradley Wascher Contributing Analyst Contributing Analyst [email protected] [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Jacob Rubashkin Robert Yoon Will Taylor Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Contributing Reporter & Analyst Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] @nathanlgonzales @jacobrubashkin

810 7th Street NE • Washington, DC 20002 • 202-546-2822 Copyright 2020, Inside Elections LLC. All rights reserved.

2 September 18, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin). One example is Collin Kos Elections, about 29 percent of the citizen age population County, the sixth largest county by population statewide. It includes the is Latino. If Democrats can get more of these residents to register to northern suburbs of Dallas (e.g. Plano, McKinney, and Frisco) and about vote and show up at the polls, that would go a long way to boost their 52 percent of its adults have a bachelor’s degree or higher (the highest chances. statewide). It voted for Romney by 32 points in 2012, for Trump by 17 points in 2016, and for Cruz by just 6 points in 2018. The Bottom Line One of the biggest demographic trends in America is that college- Texas promises to be an exciting battleground this November, with educated whites in southern states are voting more like college-educated important races for president, Senate, and the House, as well as control whites in northern states. If this trend continues, Collin County has the of the state legislature. Although the state has leaned Republican relative potential to become much more Democratic. Westchester County, which to the nation, it may be very close this year because of the strong national includes the affluent northern suburbs of City, is actually political environment for Democrats, demographic trends, and explosive demographically similar to Collin County. Both have similar levels of population growth. diversity (53 percent vs. 55 percent Non-Hispanic White), college degree Current polling confirms that Texas is a legitimate battleground. attainment (48 percent vs. 52 percent), and median household income According to the RealClearPolitics average through September 17, ($92,758 vs. $94,192). Westchester was a Republican stronghold in the Trump led Biden by 3.5 points. Democrats have been talking about Blue 1970s and 1980s but flipped to the Democrats in the 1990s and voted for Texas for a long time now, but this may be the year they finally get it Clinton by 34 points in 2016. done. If Biden wins Texas this November, it will likely be because he won or came very close in places like Collin County.

Population Growth in Major Metropolitan Areas Another big reason that Texas is becoming competitive is population 2020 Presidential Ratings growth in major metropolitan areas. According to Census estimates, (Electoral Votes) Texas’ population increased by 15 percent from 2010 to 2019, more than Toss-Up (32) any other state except . Population growth has been particularly concentrated in the major metropolitan areas of Dallas, Houston, Georgia (16) Maine 2nd (1) North Carolina (15) Austin, San Antonio, and Midland-Odessa. This growth has benefited Tilt Democratic (51) Tilt Republican (62) Democrats because the newcomers tend to be younger, more diverse, (11) 2nd (1) Iowa (6) Texas (38) and more highly educated than Texas as a whole. Florida (29) (10) (18) The political effects of Texas’ population growth can be seen if we compare results by county from the 2012 presidential election, Lean Democratic (40) Lean Republican (6) the 2016 presidential election, and the 2018 Senate election. The (4) (20) Alaska (3) Montana (3) correlation between population growth (2010 to 2019) and the increase Michigan (16) in Democratic margin (2012 to 2018) is +.582. This means that counties Likely Democratic (16) Likely Republican (31) with higher population growth have tended to also shift towards the Minnesota (10) (6) South Carolina (9) Democrats over the past decade. Nevada (6) Missouri (10) Utah (6) Note: Counties with a population of less than 1000 in 2019 (there are 8 out of 255 total) are omitted from this analysis. Solid Democratic (212) Solid Republican (88) (55) New Mexico (5) Alabama (9) South Dakota (3) The Latino Vote Colorado (9) New York (29) Arkansas (6) Tennessee (11) Another key to the presidential race in Texas is the Latino vote. As (7) (7) Idaho (4) West Virginia (5) mentioned earlier, Latinos represent about 20 percent of the state’s (3) Rhode Island (4) Indiana (11) Wyoming (3) electorate, although this may increase depending on demographic and turnout changes. D.C. (3) (3) Kentucky (8) First, the margin among Latino voters will be important. Clinton won Hawaii (4) Virginia (13) Louisiana (8) Latino voters in Texas 61 percent to 34 percent, according to exit polls. (20) Washington (12) (6) One of the reasons President George W. Bush won Texas so convincingly Maine At-Large (2) Nebraska At-Large (2) in 2004 was his strength with Latinos relative to other Republicans — he Maine 1st (1) Nebraska 1st (1) basically drew even with them in his home state. There is some worry Maryland (10) Nebraska 3rd (1) among Democrats that Biden is underperforming with Latinos, which Massachusetts (11) North Dakota (3) would hurt his chances of overperforming in a state like Texas. CNN’s Harry Enten found that Biden is winning Latinos by about 28 points New Jersey (14) Oklahoma (7) right now, lower than Clinton’s 37 point margin in 2016 pre-election 270 needed to win GOP DEM polls. 2016 Results 304 227 Second, turnout among Latino voters could make the difference. # moved benefiting Democrats, 2020 Ratings 187 319 Although Latinos represented only about 20 percent of the Texas electorate in 2016, there is a lot of room for growth. According to Daily * moved benefiting Republicans Toss-up 32

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM September 18, 2020 3 House Report Shorts

Alaska. community have warmed to the president, who has endorsed the At-Large District. , R, re-elected 53%. Trump 51%. Like Al mayor’s congressional bid. Republicans believe that between increased Gross in this state’s Senate race, Alyse Galvin was affected by the Alaska Hispanic support for Trump narrowing the race at the top of the , Division of Elections’ decision to remove the “undeclared” label from and Gimenez’s name ID and favorability, higher-than-normal for a independents running with a major party nomination. Unlike Gross, challenger as he’s been the face of the local coronavirus response, he Galvin has sued the Division of Elections to stop the change -- that case is has a clear shot at toppling the freshman Mucarsel-Powell. Move from pending. Galvin always faced a tough battle against the longest-serving Tilt Democratic to Toss-up. member of the House, and appearing only as the Democratic nominee on the ballot could make her narrow path to victory narrower still. Likely Georgia. Republican. 14th District (Northwestern Georgia) Open; , R, not seeking re-election. Trump 75%. The strange story of Georgia’s 14th Arizona. District continues 1st District (Northeastern Arizona) Tom O’Halleran, D, re-elected to get stranger still. 54%. Trump 48%. This expansive rural district is likely to host another First, Democratic close race. It’s just not clear how GOP nominee Tiffany Shedd is going nominee Kevin Van to get over the top without a boost from the top of the ticket. O’Halleran Ausdal announced he isn’t going to win any charisma contests but Shedd finished third in the was leaving Georgia 2018 primary and still hasn’t unlocked the key to good fundraising. In entirely, forcing him this political environment, the congressman is in good shape. Likely to drop out of the race Democratic. -- it later emerged that he was in the midst of Courtesy Majorie Taylor Greene Campaign Courtesy Majorie Taylor a contentious divorce Arkansas. 2nd District (Greater Little Rock) , R, elected 52%. and had to vacate his Trump 52%. Democratic and nonpartisan data agree that Biden is within home and move in with family in another state. Per Georgia law, because a few points of the president in the congressional race (after Trump won Van Ausdal dropped out within 50 days of the election, the Democratic it by 10 in 2016) and former long-time teacher/state Sen. Joyce Elliott is Party cannot select a replacement nominee. That means that GOP nominee within striking distance of the congressman. Don’t get distracted by the Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has a history of promoting the QAnon fact that Arkansas is a GOP-leaning state because this specific district conspiracy theory and espousing Islamophobic, racist, and anti-Semitic can be competitive under certain circumstances. And that appears to be ideas, including but not limited to saying that Muslims should not be able to where we’re at now. Move from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. serve in government and that there is an “Islamic invasion” of America led by Reps. and , will be unopposed in November. California. To cap it off, Graves announced he will resign his seat in October, leaving the 25th District (Northern Los Angeles County suburbs) , district without a representative until January. Solid Republican. R, elected in May 2020 special election 55%. Clinton 50%. Garcia’s special election victory has been one of Republicans’ best moments in Iowa. the last year. But considering Clinton won the district by nearly 7 points 2nd District (Southeastern Iowa) Open; Dave Loebsack, D, not four years ago, the new congressman was headed for a much tougher seeking re-election. Trump 49%. When the cycle began, this seat ranked race with a different and larger electorate. But President Trump’s 2016 third on most observers’ list of competitive Iowa seats. But the retirement support hasn’t dropped off in this district the way it has in others, and of longtime Rep. Loebsack put Democrats on defense, and GOP nominee Garcia has maintained a narrow advantage. The race is far from over, but Marianette Miller-Meeks is running a stronger campaign this cycle we’re moving it from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up. than in her three previous unsuccessful outings, according to several Democratic observers. While Democrats are confident they will retain the Florida. seat, especially with Biden highly competitive statewide, this race could 26th District (Southwestern Miami area and the Florida Keys) divert attention and resources from the two other vulnerable incumbents Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, D, elected 51%. Clinton 57%. The Biden in the state and others elsewhere. Tilt Democratic. campaign has woken to the Democrat’s very real challenges with the Florida Hispanic population, particularly the Cubans in South Kansas. Florida who play an outsized role in this district’s politics. Despite 3rd District (Suburban Kansas City area) , D, Clinton romping here four years ago, this district is closer this time, elected 54%. Clinton 47%. This suburban district exemplifies the shift and it’s voters like GOP nominee Carlos Gimenez who explain why. toward Democrats that has accelerated over the past four years. In 2016, Gimenez, the mayor of Miami-Dade County and a Cuban immigrant, GOP Rep. held this district by 11 points even as Hillary was one of Clinton’s most prominent Republican backers in 2016. But Clinton won it by 1 percentage point. This year, Davids is on pace to since Trump’s election, Gimenez and others like him in the Cuban Continued on page 5

4 September 18, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Continued from page 4 New Hampshire. win it by more than 10 points (she won by 9 points in 2018), and Biden 1st District (Eastern New Hampshire) Chris Pappas, D, elected 54%. could approach double-digits here as well. At this point, neither party’s Trump 48%. Republicans finally selected their nominee against freshman strategists consider GOP nominee/former state party chair Amanda Pappas, choosing former Trump administration official/former state Adkins particularly competitive. The congresswoman is also one of GOP executive director Matt Mowers (60 percent in the primary). Some 23 freshman Democrats poised to be endorsed by the U.S. Chamber Republicans have spoken optimistically about Mowers, and while New of Commerce, giving her a bipartisan credential. Move from Lean Hampshire has not received much attention from either national party, a Democratic to Likely Democratic. recent poll from /Siena College showed just a 3-point race at the top of the ticket, which would indicate Trump is certainly Maine. competitive in the more Republican-friendly 1st District. The Pelosi- 2nd District (Northern Maine) , D, elected 51%. aligned HMP Super PAC has reserved $2 million in advertising, but no Trump 51%. This district has strong GOP fundamentals, but the party Republican outside group has opted to spend here yet. Likely Democratic. is struggling to mount a serious challenge to freshman Golden, and Trump is dead even here despite winning by 10 points in 2016. This is a New Jersey. relatively cheap market, so outside GOP groups have come in to bolster 3rd District ( suburbs and central Jersey Shore) Andy Dale Crafts, with CLF reserving $2.5 million in future ad time. The Kim, D, elected 50%. Trump 51%. House Majority PAC, the Pelosi- Trump campaign has indicated it will seriously contest the district’s Continued on page 6 electoral college vote, so Crafts, who has a compelling life story, will get some additional support boosting Republican turnout. But Golden, who maintains a steady advantage in public and private polling, is well-positioned to win a second term. One Democrat pointed out that Candidate Conversation gun rights was largely neutralized as an issue in this rural district after a prominent sporting group declined to endorse Crafts over Cameron Webb (D) Golden, and the NRA, while backing Crafts, gave Golden a B rating (stupendous for a Democrat these days). Move from Tilt Democratic to Virginia’s 5th District — Rating: Likely Republican Lean Democratic. Interview Date: Sept. 14, 2020 Minnesota. (Zoom) 1st District (Southern Minnesota) , R, elected 50%. Date of Birth: June 21, 1983; Trump 53%. Hagedorn has found himself in the middle of a financial Fairfax, Va. imbroglio regarding improper use of his Congressional office’s funds Education: Univ of Virginia and franking privileges. In the latest twist, Hagedorn’s fired chief of staff Caroline Brehman/CQ (2005); Loyola Univ. Chicago has produced audio of a call in which Hagedorn says he didn’t “believe School of Law (2012); Wake Forest School of Medicine (2013) there’s any problem” in the arrangement that has since come under Elected Office: None. scrutiny. Democrats believe this creates an opening for their candidate, veteran Dan Feehan, who narrowly lost to Hagedorn last cycle and is Current Outlook: The dynamic of this race shifted when freshman back for a rematch. It won’t be easy: much of the focus on Minnesota Rep. Denver Riggleman lost the GOP nomination to former Campbell as a presidential battleground is based on districts like this vast, rural County Supervisor at the 5th District convention. While constituency becoming more Republican. But it complicates things Riggleman had developed a moderate reputation, Good is running as an unapologetic “strong, bright red conservative.” Webb is raising for Hagedorn, who was diagnosed with Stage IV kidney cancer at the large amounts of money, while Good comes into this contest severely beginning of the year, and has often drawn the ire of fellow Republicans underfunded. Right now, the data shows a tight race, but this district for not fully investing himself in campaigning. Before the allegations, has strong GOP DNA, having voted for firebrand Corey Stewart in 2018 it looked like Hagedorn might have been getting his footing, and the even as he lost by double-digits statewide. Webb has to hope that outside freshman Republican would greatly benefit if Trump can keep things GOP groups have more pressing places to focus their attention and close in Minnesota, like he did in 2016 -- but if Biden wins the state big, resources than this vast district so that he can use his financial advantage or the financial questions don’t go away, the congressman is in an even to overcome the partisan lean. more vulnerable position. Tilt Republican. Evaluation: Webb is young, energetic, and has serious professional 2nd District (Southern Twin Cities suburbs) , DFL, and bipartisan bona fides, with both medical and law degrees, and elected 53%. Trump 47%. August saw Minnesota enter the conversation experience working in the White House under Presidents Barack as a presidential battleground, but there isn’t much data to suggest that Obama and Donald Trump. Webb is a faculty member at UVA’s the state is truly competitive at the top of the ticket, and plenty of data to medical school, where he is the director for health equity, and if elected suggest that Biden has a healthy lead. Without a big Trump performance, he would be the first Black physician ever to serve in Congress. He’s it’s hard to see how Marine Corps veteran Tyler Kistner topples first-term already started to build up a national profile, which has allowed him to Rep. Craig. He looks like a candidate from central casting and has been boost his fundraising. Webb’s medical training could be an asset during a good fundraiser, but the Twin Cities suburbs have continued to shift the pandemic, when healthcare is on all voters’ minds, though it also consumes a lot of his time (he says he works nights at the hospital now leftward despite the unrest following the death of George Floyd in May, that the campaign is in full swing). and there’s little indication Craig is in trouble. Solid Democratic.

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM September 18, 2020 5 Continued from page 5 Democratic and Republican observers. GOP nominee Alek Skarlatos, aligned Democratic outside group, recently came under fire from an Army veteran who rose to international fame after thwarting a Republicans for a mailer that depicted Republican nominee David mass shooting on a French train in 2015, has posted strong fundraising Richter, who is Jewish, wearing a suit jacket stuffed with cash. The numbers, outraising DeFazio in the second quarter of 2020. Skarlatos NRCC accused HMP of digitally enlarging Richter’s nose as well, though has two TV ads telling the story of the attack he stopped, one that Republican news site New Jersey Globe since reported that the image was includes words of praise from former President from not in fact altered at all. Richter has some opportunity due to Trump’s when Skarlatos was awarded the US Soldier’s Medal in 2015. DeFazio residual strength (he won by 6 points in 2016 but is at worst down just a is taking the race seriously, airing four different spots since late August, handful this year), but it’ll take significant spending because the district including two negative ads attacking Skarlatos on healthcare and tying is sandwiched between two expensive media markets, Philadelphia and him to President Trump. With part of the district suffering from wildfires, New York. Outside groups are going to do most of the heavy lifting, this race could be more volatile than previously expected. There’s little the DCCC and its allies with $4.9 million in reservations and the NRCC evidence yet that Skarlatos is making headway against DeFazio, but this and its allies with $6.6 million. Richter may have to spend some of his is still one to watch. Solid Democratic. personal wealth if he really wants to make up the difference with Kim, who had a hefty stockpile at the end of June and the likely support of the Pennsylvania. U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Lean Democratic. 1st District (Philadelphia’s Bucks County suburbs) Brian Fitzpatrick, R, re-elected 51%. Clinton 49%. Fitzpatrick has made a habit out of Nebraska. pulling rabbits out of hats, and he may do so again this cycle, in a district 2nd District (Greater Omaha area) , R, re-elected that could vote for Biden by double-digits. The Democratic nominee, 51%. Trump 48%. After being painted by her opponent as too liberal Bucks County official Christina Finello, has struggled to gain traction and even for Joe Biden, Democrat Kara Eastman has rolled out a TV ad trailed the congressman in cash on hand at the end of June, $1.8 million highlighting her to $296,000. In May, we wrote that “if the race is close this fall, Democratic recent endorsement outside money won’t be able to resist.” But so far, the race hasn’t been close from the former vice enough to entice the Democratic cavalry to spend here, leaving Finello on president. Eastman her own to try and ride a Biden wave. Tilt Republican. is one of several Democrats who Texas. Biden has endorsed 3rd District (Collin County - Plano) , R, elected 54%. in recent days in races Trump 55%. Districts like this one give Democrats hope that Blue Texas where Republican may be something more than a fantasy. Though Trump won here by 14 incumbents are using points in 2016 (down from Mitt Romney’s 29-point margin), Ted Cruz Courtesy Kara Eastman for Congress Biden’s anti-Medicare Kara Eastman carried it by just 3.5 points, and now the president is at best tied and at for All stance to assail worst down slightly. Democrats hope that Trump’s collapse could allow Democratic challengers. These public statements of support, which have attorney Lulu Seikaly to pull off the upset in this district, which is the also come in Missouri’s 2nd and New York’s 24th Districts, are clearly most highly-educated district represented by a Republican. Seikaly will attempts to insulate Democratic challengers from that criticism over need more help than just a strong Biden performance, though. She had healthcare. Eastman’s biggest weakness is her support for Medicare for virtually no money at the end of June, just $29,000 in the bank compared All. Her biggest strength is that Biden will likely win this district. Her to Taylor’s $1 million. If Biden continues to run strongly in Texas, this challenge is to bridge that gap. Toss-up. could become an attractive district for Democratic outside groups looking for places to spend. Solid Republican. New York. 7th District (West Houston) Lizzie Fletcher, D, elected 53%. Clinton 24th District (Syracuse area) , R, re-elected 53%. Clinton 49%. Army veteran and helicopter pilot Wesley Hunt is one of the GOP’s 49%. There are multiple points of consensus between strategists from the star recruits this cycle, a Black candidate at a time when the party is two parties. They agree Biden will win the district, Democrat Dana Balter struggling with minority groups and a prolific fundraiser at a time when is an imperfect candidate, and that this is one of the most competitive Republicans across the country are getting swamped by Democratic House races in the country. The spending matches the latter. But cash. But all that may not matter, at least not this cycle. Fletcher has more Republicans and Democrats disagree on the presidential margin, which than held her own in fundraising, posting a 3:1 cash on hand advantage is having an impact on Katko’s standing. Republicans see Trump losing over Hunt at the end of June, and she has this district’s partisan lean by single digits and Katko with a wider margin. Democrats believe Biden and the national environment in her favor, and since a Hunt internal is winning by double digits and the congressional race is virtually even. poll showed the race knotted up back in March, Republicans have been Since Katko has consistently won in this competitive district, he gets the largely quiet here. With Texas headed for a contentious redistricting benefit of the doubt, but his time may have come. Tilt Republican. process that will see the state gain potentially four seats in 2022, Republican strategists say that even if he loses, we haven’t seen the last Oregon. of Wesley Hunt. Lean Democratic. 4th District (Southern Willamette Valley and southern coast) Peter 22nd District (Southern Houston suburbs) Open; Pete Olson, R, not DeFazio, D, re-elected 56%. Trump 46%. While neither party’s strategists seeking re-election. Trump 52%. There’s a severe difference of opinion say this race is highly competitive, it has piqued interest from both Continued on page 7

6 September 18, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Continued from page 6 million in future reservations here, while McAdams’ national allies have on this district. Republicans believe that their candidate, Ft. Bend Co. $1.7 million put down, in addition to McAdams’ own sizable funds. This Sheriff , is well ahead of Democratic nominee and former is traditionally Republican territory, but also has a history of supporting Foreign Service officer Sri Preston Kulkarni, despite the leftward shift moderate Democrats, and recent polling shows that Trump is struggling of this suburban district. Democrats, meanwhile, see Kulkarni as highly to win even half of the Mormon vote nationwide, a population that competitive, with a better campaign team and a significant financial has until now been among the most reliable GOP voting blocs. Tilt advantage, and believe that Nehls is badly damaged from attacks on Democratic. his record he faced in the GOP primary. The national GOP has already stepped in to boost Nehls, who had just $29,000 in the bank at the end of June; Congressional Leadership Fund has reserved $2.5 million in ad time. The Democratic House Majority PAC has already provided 2020 House Ratings Kulkarni with $930,000 of air cover, and the candidate just launched his Toss-Up (7R, 3D) first TV ad, highlighting his Foreign Service career and his ancestor, Sam CA 25 (Garcia, R)* NY 11 (Rose, D) Houston. Toss-Up. FL 26 (Mucarsel-Powell, D)* OH 1 (Chabot, R) 31st District (Williamson and Bell counties) John Carter, R, re-elected NE 2 (Bacon, R) OK 5 (Horn, D) 51%. Trump 54%. After MJ Hegar failed to win this seat in 2018 despite NY 2 (Open; King, R) TX 22 (Open; Olson, R) spending $5 million, Democrats largely wrote it off heading into this cycle. NJ 2 (Van Drew, R) TX 24 (Open; Marchant, R) But new polling shows Tilt Democratic (11D, 1R) Tilt Republican (6R, 1L) that Austin engineer CA 21 (Cox, D) IL 13 (Davis, R) Donna Imam could be GA 6 (McBath, D) MI 3 (Open; Amash, L) competitive, and that GA 7 (Open; Woodall, R) MN 1 (Hagedorn, R) Trump is struggling to IA 1 (Finkenauer, D) NY 24 (Katko, R) recreate his 13-point IA 2 (Open; Loebsack, D) PA 1 (Fitzpatrck, R) victory from 2016 (Ted IA 3 (Axne, D) PA 10 (Perry, R) Cruz won it by just 2 MN 7 (Peterson, DFL) TX 21 (Roy, R) points in 2018). Imam NM 2 (Torres Small, D) GOP DEM won a costly primary

Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom NY 22 (Brindisi, D) 116th Congress 201 233 and finished June John Carter SC 1 (Cunningham, D) Currently Solid 164 205 with just $42,000 in the bank, compared to $922,000 for Carter, so she will need to significantly UT 4 (McAdams, D) Competitive 37 28 boost her fundraising or hope for outside help if she wants to take VA 7 (Spanberger, D) Needed for majority 218 advantage of any opportunity this district presents. Otherwise she is liable Lean Democratic (6D, 1R) Lean Republican (7R) to get buried by Carter’s media with no way to respond. This could move CA 48 (Rouda, D) AR 2 (Hill, R)# onto the list of competitive races soon. Solid Republican. ME 2 (Golden, D)# AZ 6 (Schweikert, R) 32nd District (Suburban North Dallas) Colin Allred, D, elected NJ 3 (Kim, D) FL 15 (Spano, R) 52%. Clinton 49%. Allred, who was one of the two-dozen freshman NJ 7 (Malinowski, D) IN 5 (Open; Brooks, R) Democrats to receive an endorsement from the U.S. Chamber of TX 7 (Fletcher, D) MO 2 (Wagner, R) Commerce, has solidified himself as the clear favorite in this district TX 23 (Open; Hurd, R) MT AL (Open; Gianforte, R) where the president’s woes continue, and Republican’s woes with them. VA 2 (Luria, D) NC 8 (Hudson, R) After swinging from 16-point Romney win to a 2-point Clinton win, the Likely Democratic (8D, 2R) Likely Republican (13R) district could go for Biden by double-digits. Allred has a commanding AZ 1 (O’Halleran, D) AK AL (Young, R) 3:1 financial advantage over tech executive Genevieve Collins, and CA 39 (Cisneros. D) CA 50 (Vacant, Hunter, R) with outside groups showing little interest in helping her make up that KS 3 (Davids, D)# CO 3 (Open; Tipton, R) difference, she faces steep odds here. Move from Lean Democratic to NH 1 (Pappas, D) FL 16 (Buchanan, R) Likely Democratic. NC 2 (Open; Holding, R) MI 6 (Upton, R) NC 6 (Open; Walker, R) NY 1 (Zeldin, R) Utah. NV 3 (Lee, D) OH 10 (Turner, R) 4th District (Southern Salt Lake County and rural areas to the PA 8 (Cartwright, D) TX 2 (Crenshaw, R) south) Ben McAdams, D, elected 50%. Trump 39%. An early-July survey PA 17 (Lamb, D) TX 6 (Wright, R) released by the Congressional Leadership Fund indicated that former TX 32 (Allred, D)# TX 10 (McCaul, R) NFL player was in good position to defeat McAdams, TX 25 (Williams, R) who narrowly won this seat in 2018. But since then, the public and VA 5 (Open; Riggleman, R) private data has been much more favorable to McAdams, who had a massive, 32:1 cash on hand advantage at the end of June. CLF followed WA 3 (Herrera-Beutler, R) up their survey with $550,000 worth of ads (including a positive spot on Owens, a rarity for outside groups and a signal that he needs to bolster his name ID in the district). CLF and the NRCC have a combined $2.9 # moved benefiting Democrats, * moved benefiting Republicans Takeovers in Italics

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM September 18, 2020 7 Senate Report Shorts

Alabama. Doug Jones (D), elected 2017 special (50%). With less Global Strategy Group (D) for ProgressNow Colorado, Aug. 28 - Sept. 1 than two months to go, the senator remains the underdog against (LVs) — ballot: Hickenlooper over Gardner, 52% - 42%. former Auburn head football coach Tommy Tuberville. Jones will likely outspend Tuberville on ads by at least a few million dollars, but GOP Delaware. Chris Coons (D), elected 2010 (57%) and 2014 (56%). The outside groups are helping make up the difference and Jones is running senator easily defeated business consultant Jess Scarane, 73-27 percent, against a strong GOP pull at the top of the ballot. The race isn’t over, but in Tuesday’s primary. Scarane had been endorsed by some lower-tier Jones has a narrow shot. Lean Republican. progressive groups such as 350Action. Alaska. Dan Sullivan (R), elected 2014 (48%). With a combination Trump activist Lauren of a credible challenger and Trump failing to match his 15-point victory Witzke won the GOP in 2016, the senator continues to face a competitive re-election race. Al nomination with 57 Gross, an orthopedic surgeon and commercial fisherman, is running as percent. She adds an independent with the backing of the Alaska Democratic Party and to the list of GOP the endorsement of the DSCC. Defeating Sullivan was always going to nominees who have be tough, and a late change to the ballot might make it more difficult. an affinity for the Instead of candidates being listed with their party affiliation, they are QAnon conspiracy listed as the winner of a particular primary. Gross won the Democratic Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom theory. She’s also Chris Coons primary as an independent and is listed as the Democratic nominee. called Biden, who Democrats are not happy and are pursuing legal options, but it’s not used to hold this seat, a “sexual predator” who has an “affinity for clear they can do anything to change it. As long as Trump doesn’t crater, groping/sniffing children,” and accused Coons of not defending his own Sullivan should win. Likely Republican. daughter from Biden when he whispered something in her ear during Public Policy Polling (D), Aug. 27-28 (RVs) — General Election ballot: the senator’s ceremonial swearing-in. Coons will win in November. Solid Sullivan and Gross tied at 43%. Democratic.

Arizona. Martha McSally (R), appointed Jan. 2019. Republicans Georgia. (R), elected 2014 (53%). Jan. 5 runoff (if are encouraged that Trump is running close to Biden in the presidential necessary). The Peach State remains a presidential battleground and this race and the GOP effort is pinning negatives on former astronaut Senate race remains one of the most competitive in the country. It’s also Mark Kelly, the Democratic nominee. But the fundamentals of the race on track to go to a January runoff, when control of the chamber might haven’t changed all that much. McSally continues to run behind Trump be at stake. The senator and Democratic documentarian are by a few points and there’s no guarantee the president will carry the both struggling to cross the 50 percent threshold in November, which is state again. On the current trajectory, McSally will lose a Senate race necessary to avoid that scenario. Libertarian Shane Hazel may receive in both of the state’s seats over the course of two cycles. It would be a just enough to make that happen. Republicans have been confident surprise if Kelly doesn’t win. Tilt Democratic. that they’ll be able to drive up Ossoff’s negatives and put the race out New York Times/Siena College, Sept. 10-15 (LVs) — General Election Ballot: of reach, but it hasn’t happened yet. And now Perdue is dealing with a Kelly over McSally, 50% -42%. fresh round of negative stories about the timing of intelligence briefings Monmouth Univ., Sept. 11-15 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Kelly over and his stock trades. This race doesn’t get as much attention as the McSally, 50% - 46%. six or so that have been competitive for the entire cycle, but everyone Kaiser Family Foundation for The Cook Political Report, Aug. 28 - Sept. 13 will be very familiar with Georgia soon if control of the Senate hinges (RVs) — General Election ballot: Kelly over McSally, 44% - 36%. on this and the state’s other seat, held by appointed GOP Sen. Kelly YouGov for CBS, Sept. 9-11 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Kelly over Loeffler. Over the course of the cycle, Perdue has gone from marginally McSally, 49% - 42%. vulnerable to the GOP firewall. Tilt Republican. Fabrizio Ward (R)/Hart Research Associates (D) for AARP, Aug. 30 - Sept. Colorado. Cory Gardner (R), elected 2014 (48%). While the 5 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Ossoff over Perdue, 48%-47%. president’s standing might have improved a couple points nationally HarrisX for Matt Lieberman Campaign (D), Aug. 20-30 (RVs) — General and in some states, he’s still losing Colorado by a wide margin. Trump Election ballot: Perdue over Ossoff, 47% - 40%, Hazel (L) 9%. is more likely to lose it by double digits than replay his 5-point defeat in 2016, making it increasingly difficult for Gardner to win. Former Georgia. (R) appointed Jan. 6, 2020.Special Gov. John Hickenlooper may not be the perfect candidate, but he’s the election Nov. 3 (all candidates), Jan. 5 runoff (if necessary). Unlike the Democratic nominee in a Democratic state in a Democratic-leaning year. Perdue race, this is a special election where all candidates, regardless The senator can probably outrun Trump by a few points, but not a lot. of party, run together on the November ballot. If no candidate receives Gardner needs the president to improve or he’ll be a one-term senator. 50 percent, then the race moves to a runoff early next year. That’s Tilt Democratic. almost guaranteed to happen. With a significant investment of her Fabrizio Ward (R)/Hart Research Associates (D) for AARP, Aug. 30 - Sept. own money and an ongoing war of words with the 5 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Hickenlooper over Gardner, 51% - 46%. Continued on page 9

8 September 18, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Continued from page 8 years ago as a political outsider. Toss-up. movement, Loeffler has bounced back a bit to take back the lead against Fabrizio Ward (R)/Hart Research Associates (D) for AARP, Aug. 30 - Sept. a crowded field of candidates. Her top GOP opponent, Rep. Doug 5 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Ernst over Greenfield, 50% - 45%. Collins, is finally on broadcast television Kansas. Open; (R) not seeking re-election. GOP contrasting his resume Rep. Rep. Roger Marshall has the advantage over Democratic state as the son of a state Sen. Barbara Bollier, but the race isn’t over. Marshall came out of the trooper, father, and competitive GOP primary low on cash and with high negative ratings. War veteran Outside GOP groups have had to spend to keep him afloat. Both the with the wealthy Marshall campaign and Senate Leadership Fund are attacking Bollier Loeffler. In his ad, for votes on abortion. One Marshall ad was particularly deceiving by the congressman using quotes from Bollier from one of her videos, out of context, to also claimed to be answer questions about different issues. It looks like part of a broader President Trump’s top Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call strategy to use traditionally conservative issues to right the ship in Kelly Loeffler defender against the a Republican-leaning state. Bollier continues to be a good candidate “sham impeachment” and Trump’s preferred choice in the Senate race. raising good money. If Republicans can’t put this race away in Georgia United Victory, a GOP outside group, is on television attacking September, they’ll continue to have to spend money that could have Collins, including a picture of him with 2018 Democratic gubernatorial gone elsewhere. Lean Republican. nominee Stacey Abrams. Meanwhile, Loeffler used a recent ad to tout being “America’s most conservative senator” with “a 100% Trump Maine. Susan Collins (R), elected 1996 (49%), 2002 (58%), 2008 voting record.” That might help her finish ahead of Collins in November, (61%) and 2014 (69%). The two parties fundamentally disagree about but it could complicate GOP efforts to hold the seat when President the contours of this race. Democrats believe state House Speaker Sara Trump is struggling to carry the state again in the presidential race. Gideon has had a narrow but stable lead in a state that Trump will lose If the election were held today, Loeffler and Collins would likely handily. Republicans move on to the runoff, giving Democrats no chance of winning. Rev. see a closer is viewed as the most credible Democrat and has presidential race and started his climb with a significant TV ad buy. But he’s not there yet. Two Collins outperforming other Democrats, businessman Matt Lieberman and former US Attorney the president enough Ed Tarver, are running as well and are complicating the party’s overall to win. The recent efforts even though they don’t have a lot of financial resources. Outside Quinnipiac University GOP groups may have to decide whether to attack Warnock to keep him poll which showed in third or spend for both Republicans to try and keep Warnoch from Gideon ahead by 12 finishing in the top two. The most likely scenario is Warnock against points looks like an Courtesy Gideon Campaign one of the Republicans in a January race that could decide control of the Sara Gideon outlier, but it’s clear Senate. Some Democratic strategists are undeterred by the fact that their that the senator is in party hasn’t won a statewide runoff in Georgia in more than 30 years. a fundamentally weaker political position than she’s ever been in her But neither party should feel confident in that scenario. It would be a previous re-election races. Independent Max Linn, who made some political war. Lean Republican. waves by refusing to answer the moderators’ questions during a recent Fabrizio Ward (R)/Hart Research Associates (D) for AARP, Aug. 30 - Sept. debate, could factor into the race with the ranked choice system. He 5 (LVs) — All-party special election ballot: Loeffler (R) 24%, Collins (R) 20%, has a modest television ad buy in the Bangor and Portland markets Warnock (D) 19%, Lieberman (D) 10%, Tarver (D) 7%. running against the two-party system. It’s not exactly clear who his few HarrisX for Matt Lieberman Campaign (D), Aug. 20-30 (RVs) — All- supporters might list as their second choice. It’s hard to believe that party special election ballot: Loeffler (R) 26%, Collins (R) 21%, Warnock (D) many of Green Party candidate Lisa Savage’s backers are going to have 16%, Lieberman (D) 13%, Tarver (D) 6%, Slowinski (L) 6%, Johnson (R) 4%, Collins as their second choice. As a long-time incumbent, it’s hard to Winfield (D) 2%. believe Collins’ numbers would grow significantly in subsequent rounds of the ranked choice process if necessary. Toss-up. Iowa. Joni Ernst (R), elected 2014 (51%). Both parties agree the state New York Times/Siena College, Sept. 11-16 (LVs)— General Election Ballot: is deadlocked, both in the Senate and presidential races. And that’s Gideon over Collins, 49% - 44%. good news for Democrats, considering Trump won Iowa by 9 points in Quinnipiac Univ., Sept. 10-14, (LVs) — General Election ballot: Gideon over 2016 and Biden doesn’t have to win it in November to secure the White Collins, 54% - 42%. House. But the president’s underperformance has contributed to Ernst’s Fabrizio Ward (R)/Hart Research Associates (D) for AARP, Aug. 30 - vulnerability. Right now, the recent poll for AARP which showed the Sept. 5 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Gideon over Collins, 44% - 43%, senator up a few points looks like an outlier. Republicans are attacking Savage (G) 6%. former real estate executive Theresa Greenfield, the Democratic nominee, for being weak on and wrong on jobs, and for not renewing the Michigan. Gary Peters (D), elected 2014 (55%). This continues to leases of local small businesses in a strip mall. Democrats are trying to be an expensive and competitive race between the senator and former paint Ernst as a typical self-dealing politician after she won her race six Continued on page 10

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM September 18, 2020 9 Continued from page 9 cash advantage and should get help with a Biden win at the top of the Army Ranger/businessman John James. The poll from a couple weeks ticket, Republicans need to make sure the party unifies quickly. That ago which showed Trump and James with leads looks like an outlier. might be difficult considering Bolduc’s post-primary remarks: “I will Most polling shows Biden and Peters with a lead at least in the mid- not disgrace my name to support a man like that.” That’s not the main single digits. Until or unless Trump’s standing improves, it’s hard to see reason Messner will lose, but it certainly doesn’t help. Solid Democratic. James knocking off the senator. Lean Democratic. University of New Hampshire, Aug. 28 - Sept. 1 (LVs) — General Election Benenson Strategy Group (D)/GS Strategy Group (R) for AARP, Aug. 28 - ballot: Shaheen over Messner, 54% - 36%, O’Donnell (L) 3%. Sept. 8 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Peters over James 45% - 41%, Squier (G) 2%. North Carolina. (R), elected 2014 (49%). Republicans Change Research (D) for CNBC, Sept. 4-6 (LVs) — General Election ballot: are convinced former state Sen. Cal Cunningham made a critical mistake Peters over James, 50% - 46%. during a recent debate when he expressed concern about taking an approved vaccine before Election Day. It’s not an outlandish position Minnesota. Tina Smith (DFL), appointed Jan. 2018, elected 2018 based on public opinion surveys but he’s been on the defensive for a special (53%). For a brief moment it looked liked Minnesota would few days. Tillis needs a break because he’s been generally unable to reemerge as a presidential battleground and potentially pull the Senate break away from this challenger. A recent CNN poll showed the senator race into a competitive category. But that boomlet appears to be over. trailing by just 1 point to Cunningham, but that’s one of the most After a (R) poll showed Biden and Trump tied, five optimistic surveys for him in awhile. Tillis needs Trump to win North subsequent public polls have shown Biden with an 8- to 10-point lead. Carolina by a few points to win, but that’s far from a guarantee. Toss-up. And there’s no significant evidence that GOP strategists believe former New York Times/Siena College, Sept. 11-16 (LVs) — General Election Ballot: GOP Rep. Jason Lewis has a real chance or that Democratic strategists are Cunningham over Tillis, 42% - 37%. worried Smith will lose. Republicans simply have too many vulnerable Suffolk Univ., Sept. 11-14 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Cunningham races to dump money into Minnesota trying to pull Lewis across the line. over Tillis, 42% - 38%, Bray (L) 6%, Hayes (C) 2%. Solid Democratic. CNN/SSRS, Sept. 9-13 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Cunningham over YouGov for CBS, Sept. 9-11 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Smith over Tillis, 47% - 46%, Bray (L) 3%, Hayes (C) 1%. Lewis, 47% - 40%. Siena College/New York Times, Sept. 8-10 (LVs) — General Election ballot: South Carolina. Lindsey Graham (R), elected 2002 (54%), 2008 Smith over Lewis, 49% - 40%. (58%) and 2014 (55%). Democratic strategists are taking this race more SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV, Sept. 4-7 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Smith and more seriously while Republicans aren’t sounding the alarm yet. over Lewis, 47% - 36%. Democratic nominee is outspending the senator 2:1 on television and Democratic operatives aren’t convinced Graham is up Montana. Steve Daines (R), elected 2014 (58%). President Trump is to the challenge of a serious race. Graham made a name for himself on pace to win the state by half of his 20-point victory in 2016, but that’s as one of Trump’s top defenders on Capitol Hill, but his relationship likely to be enough with the White House may have changed recently when he got some for Daines to defeat blame for encouraging the president to sit down for an interview Steve Bullock. The with legendary reporter for a book. Woodward’s Democratic governor recordings of his interviews with Trump cast significant doubt on how has higher-than-usual the president handled the initial weeks and months of the coronavirus positive name ID response. Since Harrison’s fundraising has been so good, he’s not compared to a typical dependent on spending by outside Democratic groups. Considering challenger, and he’ll outside Democratic involvement might inspire outside GOP groups likely overperform to get involved, Democrats are content to let this race simmer outside Biden by a few the main battleground. Harrison still has to prove how he’s going to points, but 10 points Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom get approximately one-third of white voters to support him, but this a Steve Bullock is probably too far. serious race. Move from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. Democrats got a boost recently with the U.S. Supreme Court declining Quinnipiac Univ., Sept. 10-14, (LVs) — General Election ballot: Graham to overturn the state supreme court’s decision to keep the Green Party and Harrison tied at 48%. nominee off the ballot. The race remains close and competitive, but unless Trump wins by a handful of points, this looks just out of reach for Democrats. Toss-Up. Fabrizio Ward (R)/Hart Research Associates (D) for AARP, Aug. 30 - Sept. CALENDAR 5 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Daines over Bullock, 50% - 43%. Sept. 29 First Presidential Debate (Ohio) Moderator: Chris Wallace Oct. 7 Lone Vice Presidential Debate (Utah) Moderator: Susan Page New Hampshire. (D), elected 2008 (52%), 2014 Oct 15 Second Presidential Debate (Florida) Moderator: Steve Scully (52%). Republicans finally have a nominee after last week’s primary. Oct. 22 Third Presidential Debate (Tennessee) Moderator: Kristen Walker Attorney/Army veteran Corky Messner won the nomination with Nov. 3 Election Day 51 percent over retired Army Brig. General Don Bolduc (43 percent). Jan. 5 Georgia Senate Runoffs (if necessary) Considering Shaheen started the short general election sprint with a big

10 September 18, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Governor Report Shorts By Jacob Rubashkin

Delaware. John Carney (D), elected 2016 (58%). Georgetown, Del. to improve her standing against Parson for more than a year, with polling attorney Julianne Murray won the GOP primary against 2016 nominee Colin in the race largely unchanged since 2019. There is no indication she has Bonini and several other candidates, but she won’t win the general election been able to improve her support beyond the low 40s, while Parson against the incumbent. In 2016, Carney won by 19 points — between a regularly polls in the high 40s or low 50s. Even in surveys where Parson’s better national environment and Delaware native Joe Biden headlining the support lags, the difference is made up by undecided voters, not voters ticket, he should win by even more this time. Solid Democratic. switching allegiance to Galloway. While a high-single digit/low double digit lead is not insurmountable, the consistency of the race is important to Missouri. Mike Parson (R) ascended to governorship June 2018. note, especially with Election Day less than seven weeks away. Democrats have only grown more excited about their chances in the Galloway and her allies have been significantly outspending Show-Me State, and are committing the resources to back up their Republicans on the air throughout the entire month of September, and enthusiasm, already spending $3 million on the airwaves to bolster say that additional exposure plus Parson’s negatives will place Galloway 38-year-old state Auditor Nicole Galloway, with another $1.9 million in into serious contention. If that is the case, we should start to see it future reservations on the books. They believe that Galloway’s profile reflected in the polling relatively soon, and if that happens, the race could — her background in fiscal regulation as a CPA and auditor, and her move to a more competitive category. At some point, advantageous status as the only Democratic statewide elected official — combined factors such as the incumbent’s handling of the virus will have to with Parson’s lagging approval on his handling of coronavirus, make translate into observable momentum for Galloway. Until she can show this a winnable race (Parson recently scored a 39 percent approval on his that, this race remains Likely Republican. handling of the virus, good for 11th-worst of all governors in the nation). We Ask America (R), Sept. 1-3 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Parson over Republicans, for their part, are taking this one seriously as well, spending Galloway, 54% - 41%. $6.7 million to support Parson since February, with another $5.1 million in future ad buys planned, making Missouri home to the third-most Montana. Open; Steve Bullock (D) term-limited. This race is still the expensive gubernatorial race in the country, after North Carolina and one pure toss-up this cycle, with both parties believing their candidate has Montana. Of course, those are the only three particularly competitive emerged from the summer in position to win. Republicans have focused gubernatorial races this cycle, so the scarcity of opportunities could be their attacks on Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney’s four decades in public office, contributing to the spending spree. deriding him as a career politician, while Cooney and the Democrats Democrats insist this is a real race, and we believe them. That’s why we have gone after Gianforte’s record on public lands and healthcare. And moved this race out of Solid Republican over the summer. Galloway has operatives in both parties say that the opposing candidate has character a strong biography, the national environment is good for Democrats, and flaws that will work against them. Democrats have held the Montana Missouri, though it has shifted rightward in recent years, has a history of governorship for the last 16 years, and Republicans are hoping that a electing Democrats to statewide office. However, Galloway has struggled desire for change, combined with a strong showing from President Trump at the top of the ticket, will nudge this one in their direction. So far, outside groups have been doing most of the heavy lifting, 2020 Gubernatorial Ratings with the Demcoratic Governors Association already spending $4.6 million and the Republican Governors Association spending $4.1 Toss-Up million, plus an additional $2.2 million from a Montana union MT Open (Bullock, D) supporting Cooney. The future looks much the same, with additional Tilt Democratic Tilt Republican $3 million reservations from the DGA and RGA, and more moderate spending by the two candidates. (Gianforte is personally wealthy and Lean Democratic Lean Republican has so far loaned his campaign $1 million.) With outgoing Democratic Cooper (D-N.C.)# Gov. Steve Bullock still popular statewide and running for the Senate, Likely Democratic Likely Republican and with Trump struggling to put up even half of his 21-point margin Parson (R-Mo.) from 2016, Democrats remain highly competitive despite the state’s Sununu (R-N.H.)* reddish hue at the federal level. Toss-up. Global Strategy Group (D) for Cooney, Aug. 18-23 (LVs) — General Solid Democratic Solid Republican Election ballot: Gianforte over Cooney, 47% - 46%. Carney (D-Del.) UT Open (Herbert, R) Inslee (D-Wash.) Burgum (R-N.D.) (R) elected 2016 (49%), re- GOP DEM Holcomb (R-Ind.) New Hampshire. elected 2018 (53%). In the final gubernatorial primary of the year, Current Governors 26 24 Justice (R-W.V.) New Hampshire Democrats narrowly backed state Senate Majority Not Up This Cycle 19 20 Scott (R-Vt.)* Leader over Executive Council member , Currently Solid 5 2 53-47 percent. Feltes was supported by much of the state Democratic Competitive 2 2 establishment, while Volinsky enjoyed support from progressive Sen. Takeovers in Italics, # moved benefiting Democrats, * moved benefiting Republicans Continued on page 12

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM September 18, 2020 11 Continued from page 11 Vermont. Phil Scott (R) elected 2016 (53%), re-elected 2018 (55%). of neighboring Vermont and activist organizations such Democratic Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman will need a few miracles if as the Sunrise Movement and the Sierra Club, though both candidates he wants to topple Scott in the Green Mountain State. The governor aligned on nearly all issues. Sununu has maintained high approval enjoys broad crossover appeal, and according to one survey has the ratings in the state and the calendar works in his favor — with just highest approval rating on Covid-19 of any governor in the nation, at 76 seven weeks to go before the election, Feltes has little time to pivot from percent. One of the last liberal members of the GOP, Scott supported the running against Volinsky to running against the incumbent. The limited impeachment of President Trump and has said he will not vote for him. recent polling shows Sununu with a healthy lead (though not as large as Zuckerman, who will appear on the ballot with both the Democratic and his leads earlier this summer), and his allies at the RGA have committed Progressive Party labels under Vermont’s electoral fusion system, is a $3.5 million to helping him, while the DGA has not reserved any support significant underdog. Solid Republican. for Feltes. Sununu was an underdog when he won in 2016 despite the GOP losing presidential and Senate races in the state, and he won a Washington. Jay Inslee (D) elected 2012 (52%), re-elected 2016 (54%). convincing 7-point victory in a tough national environment in 2018. Even Inslee easily took first place with 50.1 percent of the vote in the all-party if 2020 is worse for Republicans than two and four years ago, something primary on August 4. He’ll face Loren Culp, the police chief of Republic, fundamental would have to change in this race to make things more Wash. (pop. 1,000), a Republican who placed second with 17 percent of the competitive, and Feltes is running out of time just as he gets started. vote. Like many governors, Inslee has seen an increase in popularity due to Move from Lean Republican to Likely Republican. the coronavirus, and he finished the month of August with a $3 million cash University of New Hampshire Survey Center, Aug. 28-Sept. 1 (LVs) — advantage over Culp. At one point Republicans discussed making a serious General Election ballot: Sununu over Feltes, 57% - 33% play for this seat, but that time is long gone. Solid Democratic. Snapshot in Time: 2020 General Election Polling Averages (as of September 18, 2020) By Bradley Wascher What was the national Date Margin Biden Trump Difference in margin: polling average ... Today-Then Today 9/18/20 Biden +6.9 49.1 42.2 — 2 Weeks Ago 9/4/20 Biden +7.9 50.1 42.2 Trump +1 4 Weeks Ago 8/21/20 Biden +8.6 49.8 41.2 Trump +1.7 6 Weeks Ago 8/7/20 Biden +8.1 49.3 41.1 Trump +1.2 8 Weeks Ago 7/24/20 Biden +8.4 48.9 40.5 Trump +1.5 10 Weeks Ago 7/10/20 Biden +8.2 48.0 39.8 Trump +1.3 12 Weeks Ago 6/26/20 Biden +9.6 49.5 39.9 Trump +2.7 14 Weeks Ago 6/12/20 Biden +8.9 49.4 40.5 Trump +1.9 16 Weeks Ago 5/29/20 Biden +6.6 48.4 41.8 Biden +0.3 18 Weeks Ago 5/15/20 Biden +5.4 47.7 42.3 Biden +1.5 20 Weeks Ago 5/1/20 Biden +6.7 48.5 41.8 Biden +0.2 6 Months Ago 3/18/20 Biden +6.1 48.5 42.5 Biden +0.8

Averages in key states Total# of polls Margin Biden Trump (polls since early August) Arizona 12 Biden +4 49 44 Florida 16 Biden +3 48 46 Georgia 4 Trump +1 47 47 Michigan 11 Biden +7 50 43 North Carolina 17 Biden +1 47 46 Ohio 3 Trump +2 47 49 Pennsylvania 15 Biden +5 50 45 Texas 6 EVEN 47 47 Wisconsin 17 Biden +7 50 44 Source: Polls Note: Margin discrepancies due to rounding

12 September 18, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH