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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Election Polling Chartpack – September 15 by Tom Lake Chart 1

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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Election Polling Chartpack – September 15 by Tom Lake Chart 1 MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Election Polling Chartpack – September 15 by Tom Lake Chart 1. Electoral College Projections 270 Electoral College Votes Required To Win 15-Sep - 270ToWin 181 31 60 147 56 11 52 15-Sep - The Economist 182 57 69 42 62 31 95 15-Sep - FiveThirtyEight 189 55 45 64 60 52 73 15-Sep - PredictIt 196 16 78 29 15 79 25 100 15-Sep - Princeton Election Consortium 253 66 33 75 26 85 15-Sep - ElectoralVote 213 67 73 65 42 78 15-Sep - Plural Vote 201 52 55 27 54 24 6 119 14-Sep - OurProgress 203 76 11 123 31 94 14-Sep - JHK Forecasts 188 34 96 17 78 15 110 14-Sep - DecisionDeskHQ 187 58 63 98 6 25 101 10-Sep - Cook Political Report 188 24 67 72 62 48 77 10-Sep - Sabato's Crystal Ball 183 29 57 65 79 48 77 08 Sep - Politico 176 36 56 67 78 12 113 4-Sep - Inside Elections 212 16 40 51 32 62 3 34 88 03-Aug - RCP 118 51 43 211 23 29 63 03-Aug - CNN 203 65 100 45 125 03-Aug - NPR 194 103 71 45 125 26-Jul - Niskanen Center 212 66 40 95 3 122 09-Jul - US News & World Report 182 27 69 74 61 19 106 Solid Biden Likely Biden Lean Biden Tilt Biden Toss-Up Tilt Trump Lean Trump Likely Trump Solid Trump Source: 270toWin, The Economist, FiveThirtyEight.com, PredictIt, Princeton Election Consortium, ElectoralVote, JHK Forecasts, RCP, CNN, NPR, Niskanen Center, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, US News & World Report, Politico, Decision Desk HQ, Plural Vote, Our Progress, MNI Chart 2. Betting Market Implied Probabilities For Presidential Chart 3. Net Favourability Ratings (Favourable Minus Election Winner, % Unfavourable), % 15 65 10 60 5 55 0 50 -5 -10 45 -15 40 -20 35 -25 30 -30 10-Mar 29-Apr 18-Jun 07-Aug 30-Jan 20-Mar 09-May 28-Jun 17-Aug Biden Trump Trump Biden Source: Economist/YouGov, Quinnipiac, Politico/MorningConsult, Gallup, Fox News, Harvard- Harris, NBC News/WSJ, Monmouth, Grinnell/Selzer, USA Today, Suffolk, Emerson, CNBC, Source: betdata.io, MNI CNN, ABC News/WaPo, NYT/Siena, Change Research (D), NPR/PBS/Marist, YouGov, MNI Chart 4. Nationwide Opinion Polling, % Latest Updates 60 Net Favourability: • Both candidates’ net favourability ratings improving in recent weeks. From an average of -15 in August, Trump’s net favourability in Sep 55 stands at an average of -13. For Joe Biden the outlook is even better, improving from a net zero in August favourability polls to +5 in Sep. 50 Electoral College Projections: • Cook Political Report moves from 30 EC votes as ‘likely Biden’ and 90 as ‘lean Biden’ in July, to 24 as ‘likely’ and 67 as ‘lean’ as of September 10. 45 188 votes remain as ‘solid Biden’. 72 votes as toss-ups compared to 43 previously. • Politico moves from 176 ‘solid Biden’, 14 ‘likely Biden’, 78 ‘lean Biden’ in 40 July to 182, 27, and 69 as of Sep 8 respectively. This boosts Biden from 268 to 278 EC votes overall, enough to win without taking any toss-ups. 35 Nationwide Polling: • 10 polls since last update all show Biden leading. Largest leads in that period were 10 points with YouGov/Yahoo (49%/39%) on Sep 11 and 30 USC Dornsife (52%/42%) on Sep 14. 10-Jan 29-Feb 19-Apr 08-Jun 28-Jul 16-Sep Swing State Polling: Biden Trump • Three Arizona polls published since last update, all with Biden leading. Source: Economist/YouGov, Quinnipiac, Politico/MorningConsult, Gallup, Fox News, Harvard-Harris, NBC News/WSJ, Monmouth, Grinnell/Selzer, USA Today, Wide margins though, from +10% with OH Predictive Insights on Sep 10 Suffolk, Emerson, CNBC, CNN, ABC News/WaPo, NYT/Siena, Change Research down to +2% on Sep 11 with Gravis Marketing. (D), NPR/PBS/Marist, USC Dornsife, Rasmussen Reports, The Hill/HarrisX, GBAO, Redfield & Wilton Strategies, Ipsos/Reuters, Leger, Atlas Intel, Zogby MNI • First New Hampshire poll since late-August shows Biden leading by 3%, (45%/42%) according to Siena College/NYT Upshot on Sep 11, which puts the lead within the margin of error. Swing State Presidential Polling Chart Pack, %, Number of Electoral College Votes Per State In () Arizona (11) Florida (29) Georgia (16) 54 60 52 52 50 55 50 48 50 48 46 46 45 44 44 42 40 42 40 40 35 38 29-Feb 19-Apr 08-Jun 28-Jul 16-Sep 29-Feb 19-Apr 08-Jun 28-Jul 16-Sep 29-Feb 19-Apr 08-Jun 28-Jul 16-Sep Maine (Second Congressional Iowa (6) Maine (Statewide) 55 60 District) 50 55 50 50 45 45 45 40 40 40 35 35 35 30-Jun 20-Jul 09-Aug 29-Aug 23-Jul 02-Aug 12-Aug 22-Aug 01-Sep 20-Jan 10-Mar 29-Apr 18-Jun 07-Aug Source: Emerson, CNBC/Change Research (D), Trafalgar Group (R), OH Predictive Insights, CNN, NBC/Marist, CBS/YouGov, Gravis, NYT/Siena, Fox News, Monmouth, Univision/ASU, PPP (D), Mason-Dixon, Quinnipiac, St Pete Polls, TIPP, Florida Atlantic University, UNF, Landmark Communications, SurveyUSA, HIT Strategies (D), Morning Consult, Data for Progress, David Binder Research, RMG Research, Spry Strategies/American Principles Project, Civiqs/Daily Kos, GBAO Strategies, Selzer/Des Moines Register, Critical Insights, Colby College/Social Sphere, PPP/AFSCME, University of Wisconsin-Madison/YouGov, EPIC-MRA, CNN-SRSS, Redfield & Wilton Strategies, Swing State Presidential Polling Chart Pack, %, Number of Electoral College Vote s Per State In () Michigan (16) Minnesota (10) New Hampshire (4) 60 60 55 55 55 50 50 50 45 45 45 40 40 35 40 30 35 35 14-Feb 04-Apr 24-May 13-Jul 01-Sep 19-May 08-Jun 28-Jun 18-Jul 07-Aug 27-Aug 16-Sep 20-Jan 10-Mar 29-Apr 18-Jun 07-Aug North Carolina (15) Ohio (18) Pennsylvania (20) 55 55 55 50 50 50 45 45 45 40 40 35 40 35 14-Feb 04-Apr 24-May 13-Jul 01-Sep 05-Mar 24-Apr 13-Jun 02-Aug 14-Feb 04-Apr 24-May 13-Jul 01-Sep Source: Economist/YouGov, Quinnipiac, Politico/MorningConsult, Gallup, Fox News, Harvard-Harris, NBC News/WSJ, Monmouth, Grinnell/Selzer, USA Today, Suffolk, Emerson, CNBC, CNN, ABC News/WaPo, NYT/Siena, Change Research (D), NPR/PBS/Marist, MNI Swing State Presidential Polling Chart Pack, %, Number of Electoral College Votes Per State In () Texas (38) Virginia (13) Wisconsin (10) 55 55 60 55 50 50 50 45 45 45 40 40 35 40 35 30 04-Feb 25-Mar 14-May 03-Jul 22-Aug 14-Feb 04-Apr 24-May 13-Jul 14-Feb 04-Apr 24-May 13-Jul 01-Sep Source: Economist/YouGov, Quinnipiac, Politico/MorningConsult, Gallup, Fox News, Harvard-Harris, NBC News/WSJ, Monmouth, Grinnell/Selzer, USA Today, Suffolk, Emerson, CNBC, CNN, ABC News/WaPo, NYT/Siena, Change Research (D), NPR/PBS/Marist, MNI Top Senate Election Races Polling Chart Pack, % Alabama Senate Arizona Senate 55 60 Colorado Senate 60 50 55 55 50 50 45 45 45 40 40 40 35 35 35 30 30 30 14-May 03-Jun 23-Jun 13-Jul 02-Aug 09-Feb 30-Mar 19-May 08-Jul 27-Aug 14-Apr 03-Jun 23-Jul 11-Sep Jones (D-Inc.) Tuberville (R) McSally (R-Inc.) Kelly (D) Gardner (R-Inc.) Hickenlooper (D) Top Senate Election Races Polling Chart Pack, % Georgia Senate Georgia Special Senate 40 50 35 30 45 25 20 15 40 10 5 35 0 20-Mar 09-May 28-Jun 17-Aug 14-Feb 04-Apr 24-May 13-Jul 01-Sep Perdue (R-Inc.) Ossoff (D) Collins (R) Gideon (D) Loeffler (R-Inc.) Tarver (D) Liberman (D) Montana Senate Maine Senate Michigan Senate 55 55 55 50 50 50 45 45 45 40 40 35 40 35 30 35 25 30 10-Mar 29-Apr 18-Jun 07-Aug 09-Feb 30-Mar 19-May 08-Jul 27-Aug 05-Mar 24-Apr 13-Jun 02-Aug Collins (R-Inc.) Gideon (D) James (R) Peters (D-Inc.) Daines (R-Inc.) Bullock (D) North Carolina Senate Texas Senate 55 50 50 45 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 24-Feb 14-Apr 03-Jun 23-Jul 11-Sep 21-Jun 01-Jul 11-Jul 21-Jul 31-Jul 10-Aug 20-Aug 30-Aug Tillis (R-Inc.) Cunningham (D) Cornyn (R-Inc.) Hegar (D) Source: AL Daily News/Mason-Dixon, FM3 Research (D), Cygnal (R), ALG Research (D), WPA Intelligence/Club for Growth/Politico (R), Auburn University at Montgomery, Morning Consult, HighGround Public Affairs, PPP, OH Predictive Insights, Univision/Arizona State University, Monmouth University, NBC News/Marist, Fox News, Civiqs/Daily Kos, NYT/Siena College, Redfield & Wilton Strategies, Change Research (D), Global Strategy Group (D), Gravis Marketing (R), Data Orbital, Spry Strategies/APP, CNN/SSRS, Data for Progress, OnMessage/Heritage Action (R), Emerson College, CNBC, Montana State University Bozeman, Keating Research (D), The Progress Campaign (D), Public Opinion Strategies (R), BK Strategies (R), Garin-Hart-Yank/Ossoff (D), YouGov/CBS, Battleground Connect (R), University of Georgia, Cygnal (R), MRG (D), HIT Strategies (D), SurveyUSA, Colby College/Social Sphere, Tarrance Group/1820 PAC (R), Victory Geek (D), Moore Information (R), RMG Research, Quinnipiac University, Critical Insights, Firehouse/0ptimus, Marketing Resource Group (R), Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R), EPIC- MRA, Kiaer Research, American Greatness/TIPP (R), University of Montana, Harper Polling/Civitas (R), Meredith College, East Carolina University, Meeting Street Insights (R), Cardinal Point Analytics (R), Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler, Global Strategy Group/Latino Decisions (D), Rice University/YouGov MNI .
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