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Morning Focus April 8, 2019 Korea Morning Focus Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) Samsung Electronics (005930/Buy/TP: W56,000) KOSPI 2,209.61 3.08 0.14 Growing expectations on shareholder returns vs. weakness in 1H19 KOSPI 200 286.68 0.53 0.19 KOSDAQ 751.71 0.13 0.02 LG Electronics (066570/Buy/TP: W99,500) Four new growth engines in home appliances Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value Jeju Air (089590/Buy/TP: W47,000) Raise TP KOSPI 511,708 4,129 KOSPI 200 63,799 2,723 Standing out from the crowd KOSDAQ 777,856 4,216 POSCO (005490/Buy/TP: W375,000) Market Cap (Wbn) Higher costs to support ongoing product price hikes Value KOSPI 1,463,239 CJ ENM (035760/Buy/TP: W310,000) Initiate coverage KOSDAQ 256,132 Strong and flexible content leader KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Sector News & Analysis Foreign 967 868 100 Institutional 1,024 962 62 Airlines (Overweight) Retail 2,126 2,281 -155 March IIA data: Divergent performances amid mixed signals KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 321 326 -4 Institutional 200 218 -17 Retail 3,675 3,651 24 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 792 791 1 KOSDAQ 275 284 -8 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 452 372 71 KOSDAQ 657 521 95 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Samsung Electronics 46,850 -100 401 KIC Ltd 3,955 345 330 KODEX Leverage 13,650 55 164 Hynix 79,000 600 162 KODEX Kosdaq150 12,935 -165 131 Leverage KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Hyundai IT 15,300 3,500 483 C-TRI 6,430 820 149 Emerson Pacific 16,250 800 108 HFR 3,215 565 101 ABL Bio 34,600 -1,250 64 Note: As of April 05, 2019 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research This document is a summary of a report prepared by Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Mirae Asset Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Growing expectations on shareholder returns vs. weakness in 1H19 Technology 1Q19 preliminary earnings: OP of W6.2tr (-60.4% YoY, -42.6% QoQ) Company Report For 1Q19, Samsung Electronics (SEC) reported preliminary revenue of W52tr (-14.1% April 8, 2019 YoY, -12.3% QoQ) and operating profit of W6.2tr (-60.4% YoY, -42.6% QoQ), missing our estimates (W55.8tr and W6.7tr, respectively) and the consensus (W53.4tr and W7.1tr, respectively). By business division, we estimate: 1) operating profit of W0.4tr (no change from (Maintain) Buy previous forecast) for consumer electronics (CE); 2) operating profit of W2.5tr (no change from previous forecast) for IT & mobile communications (IM); 3) operating Target Price (12M, W) 56,000 profit of W4.1tr (vs. W4.4tr previously) for semiconductors; and 4) operating loss of W0.8tr (vs. -W0.6tr previously) for display. Share Price (04/04/19, W) 46,950 Semiconductors/display struggle, but smartphone/home appliances robust Expected Return 19% In semiconductors, we believe the overall lower prices failed to significantly revive demand. A key point to watch is DRAM inventory. Despite some growth in mobile DRAM shipments, we estimate bit growth was -2% in 1Q19 due to soft PC/server DRAM OP (19F, Wbn) 29,733 demand. Given that SEC saw a bigger decline in 4Q18 shipments (-18% QoQ) than its Consensus OP (19F, Wbn) 32,682 competition, the fall in 1Q19 shipments suggests inventory has increased. EPS Growth (19F, %) -29.8 We estimate NAND ASP also fell more steeply than previously expected. The retail price Market EPS Growth (19F, %) -12.9 of 1TB QLC SSD has dropped 17% since March. We believe this suggests SEC is driving P/E (19F, x) 11.1 a price war in client SSD. Nevertheless, with SSD still four times more expensive than Market P/E (19F, x) 11.5 HDD per unit capacity, we believe further price declines are necessary to fuel substitute KOSPI 2,206.53 demand. Market Cap (Wbn) 280,281 We think the IM division performed reasonably well in 1Q19. SEC recently released the Shares Outstanding (mn) 6,793 Galaxy S10 series, and sales of the A series have been robust. Despite unit growth, Free Float (%) 78.8 however, we do not see any meaningful margin improvements in IM, as market share Foreign Ownership (%) 57.0 expansion is likely to continue to take priority. We expect margins to begin improving Beta (12M) 1.54 in 2020. 52-Week Low 37,450 We believe the CE division fared well, supported by strong sales of air purifiers and 52-Week High 53,000 healthy sales of QLED TVs. The display division, however, likely swung to a loss in 1Q19, (%) 1M 6M 12M weighed by a fall in LCD panel prices, weaker OLED shipments for Apple, and Absolute 4.7 5.0 0.1 depreciation expenses related to the start of the A4 line. Relative 3.9 8.3 9.2 Maintain Buy and TP of W56,000 110 Samsung Electronics KOSPI We will reflect our detailed earnings analysis and estimate revisions following the th 100 company’s earnings release, planned for April 30 . While the weakness in 90 semiconductors could continue, we think expectations on shareholder returns will 80 provide some downside support to shares and thus maintain our Buy rating and target 70 price of W56,000. From a medium- and long-term perspective, we continue to believe investors should gradually accumulate shares. 60 3.18 7.18 11.18 3.19 Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Telecom Equipment/Electronic FY (Dec.) 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F Components] Revenue (Wbn) 201,867 239,575 243,771 233,492 250,046 265,689 Wonjae Park OP (Wbn) 29,241 53,645 58,887 29,733 41,335 57,396 +822-3774-1426 OP margin (%) 14.5 22.4 24.2 12.7 16.5 21.6 [email protected] NP (Wbn) 22,416 41,345 43,891 28,718 36,920 43,554 Chuljoong Kim EPS (W) 2,735 5,421 6,024 4,228 5,435 6,412 +822-3774-1464 ROE (%) 12.5 21.0 19.6 11.5 13.5 14.4 [email protected] P/E (x) 13.2 9.4 6.4 11.1 8.6 7.3 Young-gun Kim P/B (x) 1.5 1.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 +822-3774-1448 Dividend yield (%) 1.6 1.7 3.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 [email protected] Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. LG Electronics (066570 KS) Four new growth engines in home appliances Technology 1Q19 preliminary earnings: OP of W899.6bn (-18.8% YoY, +1,088.4% QoQ) Company Report For 1Q19, LG Electronics (LGE) announced preliminary revenue of W14.92tr (-1.4% YoY, April 8, 2019 -5.4% QoQ) and operating profit of W899.6bn (-18.8% YoY, +1,088.4% QoQ). Revenue was 5.6% below our estimate (W15.8tr), but operating profit was in line with our expectation (W900.9bn). The market was looking for revenue of W15.29tr and operating profit of W807.4bn. (Maintain) Buy By business division, we estimate: 1) operating loss of W200bn for mobile communications (MC; vs. previous estimate of W195.8bn loss); 2) operating profit of Target Price (12M, W) 99,500 W400bn for home entertainment (HE; vs. previous estimate of W400bn); 3) operating profit of W660bn for home appliance & air solution (H&A; vs. previous estimate of Share Price (04/05/19, W) 75,800 W661.6bn); 4) operating loss of W40bn for vehicle component solutions (VS; vs. previous estimate of W43bn loss); and 5) operating profit of W50bn for B2B (vs. Expected Return 31% previous estimate of W52.8bn). Home appliances growing, TVs stabilizing, and VS set to improve in 2H19; Problem lies in MC OP (19F, Wbn) 2,937 Consensus OP (19F, Wbn) 2,725 We believe the home appliance and TV businesses were bright spots in 1Q19. In particular, we estimate the H&A division’s 1Q19 OP margin rose to a better-than- EPS Growth (19F, %) 33.0 expected 12.5% (from around 10% in previous quarters), fueled by a higher mix of new Market EPS Growth (19F, %) -12.8 products such as electric dryers, A9 cordless vacuums, stylers, and air purifiers.
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