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What Next in Afghanistan? No. 736 Delivered January 31, 2002 WHAT NEXT IN AFGHANISTAN? JAMES PHILLIPS, ELIE KRAKOWSKI, PH.D., THOMAS KLEINE, AND KENNETH KATZMAN, PH.D. James Phillips: man of Afghanistan’s Interim Administration, sat HERITAGE FOUNDATION On behalf of The Heritage Foundation, I’d like to LECTURE welcome you here today to our panel on “What next to First Lady Laura March 11, 2002 Next in Afghanistan?” Bush at President George Bush’s State of the Union Produced by the This has been a tumultuous year for Afghanistan, Address two nights ago. Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis which too often has been called the cockpit of Asia. Chairman Karzai has been Institute for International Studies With the possible exception of the United States, a diplomatic whirlwind, Afghanistan has changed more than any other Published by moving through Washing- The Heritage Foundation country in the world since the events of September ton earlier this week and 214 Massachusetts Ave., NE 11. Afghanistan was the first battlefield in the U.S. New York City in the past Washington, D.C. global war against terrorism, and, in fact, the two days, and we’re very 20002–4999 Afghan people are the first victors in that war in the pleased to see this. (202) 546-4400 sense that they have been liberated from the harsh http://www.heritage.org rule of the Taliban. I remember that only three or four years ago, we ISSN 0272–1155 Although the war in Afghanistan is far from over, had Hamid Karzai speak I think it is fair to say that the U.S. did win a sub- here at Heritage and had a stantial military victory in Afghanistan. Now the much smaller audience United States and the world at large are grappling than he’s getting now. But with the thorny issue of how to win the peace after today, Americans—and, This paper, in its entirety, can be that war—particularly, how to prevent terrorist ele- indeed, the world—realize found at: www.heritage.org/library/ ments such as Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda terrorist that international security lecture/hl736.html network and the ultra-radical Taliban regime, to a large degree is linked which bin Laden helped to prop up, from returning to what goes on in Afghan- to roost in Afghanistan. istan. After being neglected for many years following This panel will examine the prospects for peace the 1989 Soviet withdrawal, Afghanistan has and stability in that war-torn country. We’ll be talk- returned to a position of prominence in U.S. for- ing about possible pitfalls and diplomatic mine eign policy. Symbolically, Hamid Karzai, the chair- No. 736 Delivered January 31, 2002 fields that Washington and Kabul must navigate in Unfortunately, some of the culprits blocking order to advance peace and stability in that country. things then still remain the culprits today, making Before we start, I should add one thing. One of things a little more difficult than they need to be. As our scheduled speakers, Haron Amin, the chargé it is, Afghanistan—or, rather, the problem posed by d’affaires of the Afghan Embassy here in Washing- Afghanistan—is a fairly complex one. We have gone ton, is not able to make it. He is accompanying in a very short time from almost complete igno- Chairman Karzai in New York today. In his place, rance of Afghanistan to a situation where everybody we’re very grateful to obtain the services of Dr. Ken- seems to be an instant expert. neth Katzman of the Congressional Research Ser- For those of us who have spent quite a bit of time vice, who at very short notice has agreed to speak in on that, I have said that I am not sure what was Haron’s place. more difficult, before 9/11 or after 9/11? Because Our first speaker today is Dr. Elie Krakowski. He before 9/11, we couldn’t get anybody to listen. Now is a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy there are so many people speaking that it’s even Council. He is also a senior fellow at the Central more difficult to be heard. So I’m not quite sure Asia and Caucasus Institute at Johns Hopkins Uni- what is better. versity. And in his spare time, he is the president of A Unique Opportunity. However, what is posi- EDK Consulting. tive is that for the first time in many years, there is a Dr. Krakowski is a veteran expert on Afghanistan, unique opportunity finally to do the right thing in and I first met him during the Reagan Administra- Afghanistan. The situation and the circumstances tion, where he was serving as a Special Assistant to are right, but if they are not seized, I believe that the the Assistant Secretary of Defense for International consequences will be far worse than ever before. Security Policy. He was specializing in low-intensity The reason for that is that when Afghanistan was conflict issues, especially in Afghanistan. abandoned after the Soviet withdrawal, it was aban- doned outside the glare of publicity. Following that, he went up to Boston University where he was a professor of international relations What we now have is tremendous attention to and law from 1988 to 1996. He has lectured widely Afghanistan and its problems—so much attention and testified before Congress on the conflict in that there are billions of dollars that have been Afghanistan and returned from the region last sum- pledged for its reconstruction. However, if the situ- mer, not only from Afghanistan, where he met with ation in the country is not addressed properly, we Ahmed Shah Massoud, the martyred leader of the may end up with a situation in which Afghanistan United Front, but also Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turk- will once again be abandoned, but this time very menistan. He has also had extensive discussions much in the glare of publicity. with diplomatic representatives of Russia, India, If that happens, it is doubtful anyone will want and China on the subject of Afghanistan. even to hear about Afghanistan again for a very long —James Phillips is Research Fellow in Middle East- time because if you have money that is poured into ern Studies in the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis the country without the proper methods and proce- Institute for International Studies at The Heritage dures and without the proper context, the only Foundation. thing that will happen will be conflict at a much higher level. All that money will end up paying for FUTURE PROSPECTS FOR AFGHANISTAN more advanced technologies to support the fight- FROM A REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE ing. As we speak, two opposite trends are manifest. Dr. Elie Krakowski: One is more positive, where people are paying It is a great pleasure to be here with people that I attention, wanting to do things, wanting to set know so well, including Tom Kleine, whom I things right. The other, as we all also know, is in haven’t seen in a while. It brings back memories essence the chaos that threatens to return, accom- from the old days when we were able to accomplish panied by the fighting that we see already occurring a few things together, even if it was not as much as among a number of people that the press insists on we would have wished. calling warlords. NOTE: Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of The Heritage Foundation or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any bill before Congress. No. 736 Delivered January 31, 2002 I have a problem with the term, because it is so Pakistan assumed—not entirely correctly as it emotionally laden with negative connotations that turned out—that Afghan extremists would need don’t really describe anything. In fact, what we are them not just to seize, but to hold on to power. This dealing with are simply tribal leaders and ethnic also meant that Pakistan was quite willing to con- group leaders who are fighting with one another in template a fairly unstable situation within Afghani- a typical struggle for power—not something alto- stan. Picking popular Afghan leaders as Pakistani gether surprising when what passed for central proxies, on the other hand, would have meant that power collapsed without much thought being given they would have been bound quickly to reassert to a replacement beforehand. their independence once in power. My point in addressing, as Jim said, the regional The other states have also had nefarious designs, situation is a rather simple one: The key to a solu- which were essentially to block Pakistani control tion in Afghanistan lies not within the country, but and deny control to anyone else, even if that meant outside of it. conflict. We are referring here to Russia, Iran, and The Regional Perspective. The preoccupation some of the other key Central Asian states. This that everyone has with reconstruction, with the for- explains what is happening in the region even mation of a government, with making life livable today. When we look at the so-called warlords or again for the Afghans after so many years of tre- the tribal leaders competing with one another and mendous tragedy—all of that cannot fighting one another, we are looking at a situation occur unless the regional context is that really could not exist for very addressed and addressed seriously. The key to a solution in long if it was not encouraged from That means, in essence, that the con- Afghanistan lies not the outside.
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