Colour Forecasting Tracy Diane Cassidy, School of Art, Design and Architecture, University of Huddersfield, Huddersfield, UK [email protected] Abstract The underlying principles of colour forecasting, its purpose and the process, now have a history spanning a full century. While the trend-forecasting sector, as it is today, developed predominantly in the 1960s / 70s, the first known official colour forecasting agency, the Textile Color Card Association of America (TCCA), was established much earlier in 1915 - and is still in existence today, though it is now known as the Color Association of the United States (CAUS). This issue of Textile Progress is somewhat timely as the challenges that industry face now differ from the challenges of the twentieth century, in particular, the increased need to address sustainability and the increased competiveness of the global marketplace. By providing an overview of the historical context, the importance of the role of colour forecasting in the fashion and textile industries is considered before setting the scene for engagement with the practice of colour forecasting, which is often referred to as being a combination of an art and a science due to the different techniques used and the different skill sets employed by forecasters to differentiate themselves from their competitors. It provides a detailed analysis of the more-recently established and establishing trend forecasting methods with a view to thinking more innovatively about the potential practice of colour forecasting. Furthermore, it investigates the effects and impact of colour and trend forecasting with a particular focus on the consequences of the process and system on business, on consumers and on the environment, drawing first on the theory of planned obsolescence and second on the sustainability of the system itself. Reviewing the developments in colour forecasting begin with the techniques that are considered to be the art of forecasting, followed by the colour forecasting process itself and the role it plays in the industry, including its application in textile design, garment design and product development, whilst highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches. The more-objective characteristics of the colour forecasting process that have emerged from engagement with new developments and new thinking, provide a focus on the potential for greater accuracy in colour forecasting. This issue of Textile Progress explains how and why colour forecasting is an essential component of the business of making and selling fashion garments, through merchandising, retailing and fashion marketing, as well as being important in fashion design and product development processes. Developments affecting the design of colour-forecasting systems are shown to draw on marketing theory, without much consideration for the human-business interface, specifically, colour preferences, colour psychology and cultural meanings of colour. In addition, whilst forecasters claim to engage in research and include developments and new technologies as they materialise in the dyeing sector, there is little evidence in the literature of how precisely research and development within the industry has impacted, if at all, on colour forecasting, unless the developments have become generally newsworthy. The overall aim of this Textile Progress is to assist an understanding of the colour forecasting process and its contribution to the larger trend-forecasting system, and to highlight the challenges for the colour forecasting to face in twenty-first century fashion-business strategy. Attention is paid to the colour forecasting process, the art of forecasting and forecasting as a system establishing its role within the industry, including its application in the design process and skills acquisition, and the strengths and weaknesses of the current colour and trend forecasting process are presented. The more-recently established trend- forecasting methods are critically analysed, as are previously unpublished contributions to knowledge through original sets of primary research data, and potential improvements are suggested. Keywords: colour forecasting; trend forecasting; design process; product development; fashion retailing; planned obsolescence; sustainability. 1. Introduction Technical developments in spinning, weaving, machine knitting, garment construction and manufacturing were the catalysts for the development of the ready-to-wear apparel industry in America from around the middle of the nineteenth century. The ready-to-wear sector had by then begun to emerge as mass production and the development of the retail sector, as we know it today, had developed in earnest, and by this time the processes of fabric manufacture and garment production were relatively cheap and fashionable products were more-widely available. By piecing together details about the textile and fashion industry over time the need for colour and trend forecasting can be identified and its importance in the fashion system today can be rationalised. There is evidence that throughout the period that followed the earliest stages in the mass production of clothing and fashion retail development, British textile and garment manufacturers had visited America during the nineteenth century, though this may have been more related to the growing competition due to the development of the American industry [1] than merely seeking inspirations for their own products. Trend-forecasting as it is today was developed predominantly in the 1960s and 1970s, as a result of changing consumer behaviour in the 1950s and 1960s supported by technological advances in textile and clothing manufacture. Consequently, according to Valan, as ‘modernity penetrated daily life, colour became the symbol of change’ [2], and the culmination of these factors promoted the acceptance, or the need for colour forecasting. 1.1 Historical overview The textile industry developed sequentially through the inventions and refinements of spinning machinery in the early eighteenth century and these were instrumental both in increasing the speed of yarn production and improving the quality of the yarns; similar advances in powerloom technology improved both the quality and production rates of woven fabrics [3], whilst downstream, the development of the sewing machine in the mid-1850s offered opportunities to improve production rates in clothing manufacture. Competition increased in the textile industry and more spinning mills and fabric manufacturing units were opened by the growing number of entrepreneurial businessmen keen to profit from the industrial revolution. The emergent wealth-class division enhanced by the industrial revolution became ever more apparent and the unwritten rules of social status, behaviour and appearance developed by earlier privileged classes were enhanced and became more-widespread. The wealthy were dressed by a rising number of designers, and as cheaper fabrics became more-readily available and affordable to a wider range of the population, distinctive style, cut and fit became more important in high fashion in order to distinguish the elite from the growing number of (less wealthy) followers of fashion [4]. One of the earliest designers at the time of the emergence of the industrial revolution was Rose Bertin who operated from her salon in Paris circa 1773 to 1793. Her reputation essentially grew due to her rare talent for using colour together with ability to exploit style and fit in her designs; as an indication of her success, she later became personal dressmaker to Marie Antoinette [5]. By the early nineteenth century the factory system had been established for textiles and the first clothing factories began to appear, originally for making army uniforms; fashion change was still slow at this time [6], yet, by around 1825 British manufacturers were known to have been visiting America for design inspiration, providing an early indication of the need for some kind of forecasting system, at the very least in terms of fashion direction. This method involving sourcing inspiration from further afield is still a part of the forecasting system today. By the mid-nineteenth century, technological advancements in the garment-manufacturing sector ensured higher production rates for apparel, though efforts aimed at improving the quality of clothing were still rudimentary, largely due to the challenges associated with achieving good fit for the mass population. At the same time the Parisian haute couture business, where style, cut, fit and the skill of the seamstress were paramount to high fashion, began to develop in earnest [7]. The couture industry was at this time the backbone of the fashion industry and a primary source of inspiration for garment manufacturers, and for the dressmakers who served the less-wealthy classes. The newly-developing retail sector, created through the establishment of department stores in major towns and cities across Britain, Europe and America, supported further developments in the apparel manufacturing sector. Part- made garments were displayed and completed in a bespoke manner for customers in-store and on demand, which helped the garment-manufacturing industry to cope in the short-term with the problem they were encountering with poor fit [8]. Great interest in colour and the prospect for the development of ranges of new synthetic dyes was stimulated by William Perkin’s discovery of the first synthetic dye, Mauveine, in 1856 and the opening of his factory to mass-produce