Sea-level rise and groundwater salinization in the coastal area of

A study of the impact of groundwater salinization around the lake on the livelihoods of the farmers.

The , which separates the Grevelingen Lake (left) from the (right). Source: Own picture, made on the 9th of May 2018.

Name: Frida Boone Student number: 11042893 Supervisor: Dr. Joshua K. Maiyo Bachelor thesis, Social Geography Department of Social Science University of Amsterdam June 18, 2018

Abstract

This thesis presents a research on the social impact of salinization of the groundwater on the livelihoods of the farmers around the Grevelingen lake. The results of this thesis show that salinization – driven by the sea-level rise – have a negative impact on the livelihoods of the farmers around the Grevelingen Lake. These impacts are translated in: pressure on the fresh-water lens, a decrease of the quality of the soil and a limitation on the possible crops to grow. Al these impacts have direct effect on the livelihoods of the farmers. Moreover, the incentive of the government to bring back the tide in the Grevelingen lake, to stimulate the water quality, would give the sea-level rise more opportunities to reinforce the impact of the salinization. On the long term, the salinization will have a negative impact on the livelihoods of the farmers around the Grevelingen lake, as a result of pressure to maintain the productivity of their farmlands.

2 Table of content

1.0 Introduction p. 4 2.0 Research objectives and goals p. 5 3.0 Theoretical framework p. 6 3.1 Effects on climate change p. 7 3.2 Adaption and mitigation p. 7 4.0 Conceptual framework p. 9 4.1 Climate change p. 9 4.2 Sea-level rise p. 10 4.3 Salinization p. 11 4.4 Livelihood s p. 13 5.0 Research location p. 14 5.1 Zeeland p. 14 5.1.1 Land use p. 14 5.1.2 Population and livelihoods p. 16 5.1.3 Zeeland and the sea p. 18 5.2 The Grevelingen lake p. 21 5.2.1 Topographic location p. 21 5.2.2 Recreation sector p. 22 6.0 Methodology p. 23 6.1 Research design p. 23 6.2 Data collection p. 23 6.3 Data analysis p. 25 7.0 Results p. 26 7.1 Trends in sea-level rise and salinity Zeeland p. 27 7.1.1 Salinity in Zeeland p. 27 7.1.2 Influence soil composition p. 29 7.1.3 Influence tidal change p. 31 7.2 Land use and agrarian livelihoods in Zeeland p. 33 7.2.1 Land use p. 33 7.2.2 Agrarian livelihoods p. 35 7.2.3 Impact on livelihoods p. 36 7.2.4 Tidal change on Grevelingen lake p. 37 7.2.5 Long-term p. 39 8.0 Conclusion p. 40 9.0 References p. 42

3 1.0 Introduction

Salinization of soils is a globally occurring process, which has both ecological as social impact (Ramoliya & Pandey, 2003; Rengasamy, 2006; Sanderse, 2016). It leads to salt- effected soils that have impact on agriculture production, the environment and consequently on economic welfare. Salinization occurs in more than 100 countries in the world, all in different dimensions and scales. There is no climate zone in the world where salinization doesn’t occur (Rengasamy, 2006). Climate change and subsequently the sea- level rise – where the saltwater comes from – are the great drivers behind the salinization of the global soil (Herbert et al., 2015). Taking into considering that climate change will increase in the future, due to anthropogenic modifications, salinization is likely to increase in the future (ibid.). Several studies have shown that salinity in especially low-lying countries have disastrous results for agriculture, infrastructure, fresh-water supplies and subsequently for the stability of communities. The research of Mahmuduzzaman et al. (2014) shows that communities in the low-lying areas in Bangladesh are affected in their fresh-water supplies by the intrusion of salt water into the inland soils. This affects the stability of life for a significant part of the population. Whereas the total affected land by salinity in 1973 was 83.3 million hectares, the total affected land in 2009 was 105.6 hectares. This significant increase is due to the fact that Bangladesh is a low-lying country (under sea-level), where salt water intrusion reaches the fresh ground water sooner than in high-lying countries (Mahmuduzzaman et al., 2014). The outcome of this study is in line with a recent research of the Norwegian Institute of Bio-economy Research (NIBIO) in Vietnam, that shows that low-lying coastal areas are more prone to salt-water intrusion as a result of sea-level rise (NIBIO, 2017). According to this study, this is the result of the often-extensive coastlines and many river deltas of low-lying countries (ibid.). As a result of the long-term development as a low-lying deltaic location, the has experienced increasing salinization due to sea-level rise in the past. This development in the Netherlands is a result of two phenomena. The first one is a balance between the negative demand and supply of sediments, which has resulted in a retreating trend on the Dutch coastline (Kwadijk et al., 2010). Secondly, it is due to the fact that that 60 percent of the land in the Netherlands is located below sea-level (Kabat et al., 2005). Considering that the process of salinization doesn’t show the same effects everywhere it occurs (Rengasamy, 2006), this is also the case for the Netherland; not every part of the country is affected with salinization. In the province of North- and South-Holland, the farmers don’t have to deal with the process of salinization yet because the sweet-water layer is not yet infiltrated with salt-water (Le Gras, Trouw, 2005). However, in Zeeland – a province along the south coast of the Netherlands – the groundwater system of the coastal area is threatened by salinization (Post, 2004). This is a result of the sea level rise, which started during the Holocene period (ibid.). A well- structured ground water system consists of a spatial distribution of fresh water and saline ground water, where the groundwater is below the seafloor. In the case of the coastal area of Zeeland, the saline water has risen above the traditional level. Due to this, the saline water has put pressure on the fresh water and made his way far inland (Post, 2004). Considering that the salinization of the ground water goes hand in hand with the sea-level rise, the salinization will hold on and will not only affect the ecological state of Zeeland but also the livelihoods and spatial dimension of Zeeland (Raats, 2015). There are several studies that already examined the ecological effects of salinization in Zeeland (De Boer & Radersma, 2011) and effects on the remaining fresh ground-water in coastal areas (Deltares, 2017, Tuinenberg, 2014). However, less attention has been payed to the effects of ground-water salinization on livelihoods in Zeeland due to the ground-water

4 salinization (Sanderse, 2016). For this reason, this research is designed to investigate the social dimension of the salinization of the ground-water in Zeeland.

2.0 Research objective and goals

The objective of this research is to create public awareness for the possible impact of sea- level rise on livelihoods on the global scale, through the understanding and analysing of the social and ecological impact of the sea-level rise on the local farmers in Zeeland. This is due to the fact that the global sea-level is rising as a consequence of the climate change – and this will be also the case for the future (Kabat et al., 2005) Moreover, more than one billion people in the world live in low-lying coastal areas and subsequently have to face with the consequences of the sea-level rise (World ocean review, 2010). Research on the consequences of Sea-level rise shows that tens of millions of people are displaced by the sea-level rise in the past century and that economic and ecological systems are damaged (Dasgupta et al., 2008). For this reason, the aim of this research is to find the relation between salinization – as a result of sea-level rise – and the impact of it on the livelihoods of the farmers in Zeeland. The overall aim of this research is to serve as an extension on ecological research that already has been done by several studies on global scale (Dasgupta et al., 2008) and national scale (Kabat et al., 2005; Kadwijk et al., 2010; Post, 2004). Moreover, this thesis builds on a report of the ‘Rijkswaterstaat’ (the ministry of water and infrastructure in the Netherlands) of the Netherlands, that is focused on the economic and hydrologic effects of the water level increase of the Grevelingen Lake, on the agriculture land around the lake (Sanderse, 2016). This report is based on the plan of the government to re-connect the Grevelingen Lake with the sea again, due to water quality interests (Rijkswaterstaat, 2018). However, this plan will affect the rate of salinization in the ground of Zeeland (Sanderse, 2016). Therefore, the plausible impact of this plan will be discussed and included in the data collecting analysis (Sanderse, 2016; Rijkswaterstaat, 2018). There are some boundaries put on this research. First of all, the time set for this research was four months. Due to this limited time, it is not possible to focus on the whole region of Zeeland but just on a small part of it. Secondly, the time scheduled for the fieldwork is also limited, consequently, the results of the research are therefore from primary sources (farmers and water organizations), who wanted to cooperate within this timeframe. Finally, this thesis aims to be the reason for further research in the future on the social dimension of the impact of salinization – due to sea-level rise – in the Netherlands and subsequently in the world (De Boer & Radersma, 2011; Deltares, 2017, Tuinenberg, 2014). To achieve the mentioned aims of this research, the guiding question throughout the research will be: What is the impact of the salinization in Zeeland due to the sea-level rise, on the livelihoods of the farmers in the region around the Grevelingen Lake? The regions around the Grevelingen Lake are defined as the communities of Schouwen- Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee. Considering that this question could not be answered through one answer, the question will be divided into sub-questions as follows: 1. What are the main impacts of the sea-level rise, on the salinization rate in Zeeland and in Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee? 2. How are the farmers of Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee effected in their livelihoods by the salinization of the land? The layout of this research firstly provides a theoretical framework, where the different theories that are used for this study are discussed. Thereafter, the key concepts that are

5 relevant for this research are presented in the conceptual framework, through defining specifying and operationalizing of the concepts. This is followed by a description of the research location. Here, the focus first of all lies on the province of Zeeland as a whole, where after the details of the Grevelingen lake are presented. Moreover, in the part of the research location, the historical relation between the sea and Zeeland is discussed and the former impact of the sea-level rise, subsequently salinization. Thereafter, the methodology gives a clarification of the research design, including the data collection and the data analysis. It discusses how the data was collected for the quantitative (is there effect?) and the qualitative (how are the livelihoods effected?) parts of the thesis. The methodology also describes the way the data is analysed through the help of different methods and programs. The outcome of this research is presented in the results. Here, the focus first of all lies on the main impact of the sea-level rise on the salinization rate in Zeeland and in Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee. This is discussed through the trends in sea-level rise and salinity in Zeeland and moreover, the influence of the soil composition and the incentive to bring back the tide in the lake. This first part is guided by the first (quantitative) sub-question of the research: What are the main impacts of the sea-level rise, on the salinization rate in Zeeland and in Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree- Overflakkee? Here after, the impact of the salinization on the livelihood of the farmers is discussed by focussing on the agrarian livelihoods, the impact on the livelihoods, the tidal change on the Grevelingen lake and at last the long-term impact. The results of the impact of salinization on the livelihoods of the farmers are guided by the second (qualitative) sub- question of this research: How are the farmers of Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree- Overflakkee effected in their livelihoods by the salinization of the land? Finally, the results give answer to the overall research question of this study, which is presented in the conclusion.

3.0 Theoretical framework

There is not one ‘definition’ for climate change; it is a process, a broad process with different dimensions. It includes for example, cultural, social, natural, spatial and economic dimensions. All these dimensions look at climate change from a different perspective. However, these perspectives derive from the same concern: the global warming (Adger et al. 2013; Mearns & Norton 2009; Tol, 2002). The IPCC is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change, which is mostly referred back to in research about the effects of climate change (IPCC website, n.d). Due to this, the definition of climate change from the IPCC is used for this research, which is as follows: “Climate change refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity” (IPCC, 1995;1998;2000). Furthermore, for this case study about the salinization of the ground water in Zeeland and the impact on the livelihoods of the farmers – only the natural and spatial dimension are discussed in this section (Adger et al., 2011). First, the main causes of climate change will be discussed (Hardy, 2003). Earth’s Climate is mainly determined by the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere, these are crucial for sustaining life on earth (Lookwood, 1979; cited in Hardy, 2003). However, through the last 100 years, the chemical composition of the earth’s atmosphere is disrupted by human activities like burning oil, coal and gas and cutting away forest. As a consequence, climate has changed. Subsequently, it has had a great impact on the ecosystems on the world, human health and our economy (Hardy 2003, p. 3). The atmospheric layer of the earth contains three main gasses: nitrogen, oxygen and Argon.

6 However, due to the human activities, the atmosphere now also consists of carbon dioxide methane, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides. These gasses are called greenhouse gasses and affect the radiation balance or heat net of the Earth. Consequently, this has led to global warming (Hardy 2003, p. 4).

3.1 Effects of climate change The global warming has, among other things, resulted in: the warming of the ocean; decline of the sea-ice; surface loss of the glaciers and the rise of the sea-level. Over the past 100 years, the global mean surface temperature has increased with 0.6 degrees. Moreover, over the last 40 years, the temperature increased by 0.2-0.3 degrees (Hughes, 2000). Climate models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predict that the mean annual global surface temperature will increase with 1.0 - 3.5 degrees by 2100 (IPCC, 1995). Consequently, this means that the impact of climate change and subsequently global warming will be of great influence in the future (Hughes, 2000). Currently, climate change is causing disruption in social, spatial and ecological system. According to Adger et al. (2011), climate change only becomes important to policymakers when it puts a risk to material aspects of well-being – expressed in economic costs (Adger et al., 2011). However, climate change also affects the ecosystems, landscapes, homes and human health. Moreover, the impact of climate change can lead to irreversible losses of natural biodiversity, which are of value for the social society and their choice of settlement (ibid.). Adger et al. (2011) state that there is a relation between the places of settlement of households and changes in the physical environment of these places. Changes in the physical environment, can influence the feeling of households about the place of settlement. It also could emerge in more interest in the environmental changes, due to climate change, in their area of living. They refer to this as places that are at risk to climate change (Adger et al. 2011). Subsequently, figure 1 shows the places in the world that are at risk of climate change in the future. The data comes from the IPCC and is provided by the Socioeconomic Data and Application Centre (SEDAC). It shows the climate change vulnerable scenarios for all the countries in the world in 2050 and 2100 (SEDAC, 2018). The darker the colour red a country has, the more vulnerable it is to future climate change scenarios. As the figure makes clear, a significant part of the world countries is vulnerable for climate change impact in the future (ibid.).

Figure 1. Climate change vulnerability scenarios in 2050 and 2100. Source: SEDAC, 2018.

7 3.2 Adaption and mitigation There are different theories on the adaption and mitigation of climate change; most theories are based on climate scenarios from the IPCC. In the Netherlands, the adaption of water management started in the 1990’s with a publication of the Fourth National Policy Document on Water Management (Ministerie van verkeer en waterstaat, 1998). There were three possible scenarios proposed for the 21st century, which could be used to design adaption strategies on climate change. These were: (1) a lower, (2) a central and (3) an upper estimate. The Committee Water management decided to fit the adaption strategy to the central estimate of the possible scenario. However, four years later, a new generation of scenarios were introduced, based on new insights from the Fourth assessment from the IPCC (Van den Hurk et al., 2007). These new scenarios showed that there were much more possible futures for climate changes. Due to the fact that there was no ‘central scenario’ – that could serve as a norm to fit an adaption strategy – the wider range of climate scenarios were seen as a difficulty. Moreover, considering that the complexity of climate change would increase in the future, another way of adopting strategies was needed (Kwadijk et al., 2010). As an alternative, there are studies that focus on ‘adaption tipping points’, to prepare for climate change and sea-level rise (Kwadijk et al. 2010) and studies that see climate change as an opportunity for large-scale innovations for the future (Kabat et al. 2005). The study of Kwadijk et al. (2010) comes from a bottom-up approach, which is focused on the improvement of the resilience and robustness of a system that has to deal with climate change. The advantage of this approach is that it is independent from climate projections in the future – in contrast to top-down approaches, where climate scenarios are used as the starting point of the analysis. Using these top-down approaches can lead to a strong limitation of creating adaption strategies, due to the reliance on the climate projections. Moreover, it is not capable to adapt unexpected growth of the size of the problem (Kwadijk et al. 2010; Carter et al., 2007). Considering that climate change and subsequently sea-level rise are two rising problems in the world and can show unexpected changes in the future, the theory of ‘adaption of tipping points’ of Kwadijk et al. (2010), is a relevant theory to focus on. Moreover, this theory is already applied on the Dutch water management and shows a successful example of an adapting tipping point in Zeeland (ibid). For this case, ‘adaption’ refers to actions that are targeted at a specific vulnerable system, which is a response to actual or expected climate change. The aim of this action Is to either limit negative impact or exploits positive impact on the vulnerable system. Adaption deals with predictable climate change, non-climate conditions, timing (proactive and reactive) and the time horizon (short-term or long-term actions) (Gladwell, 2000; Kwadijk, 2010). ‘Tipping point’ refers to the point where change in the system is the result of external forcing and no longer requires this external force to sustain in the new pattern of change (Kwadijk, 2010). Together, Kwadijk et al. (2010), define adaption tipping points as: “… points where the magnitude of change due to climate change or sea-level rise is such that the current management strategy will no longer be able to meet the objectives.” (Kwadijk et al., 2010). Thus, they refer to the points where current management strategies lack the current conditions and impact of climate changes. Subsequently, this will give insights whether and when water management may fail and other strategies are needed. For the case in the Netherlands, the natural boundary for living and working are the starting point for an ATP analysis. The ATP is reached when the system is no longer capable of maintaining proper conditions and achieve objectives for living – due to climate change and sea-level rise. When this happens, alternative strategies are needed to manage and maintain the properties of the system (Kwadijk et al., 2010).

8 Furthermore, the study of Kabat et al., (2005), shows that adaption and mitigation of climate change could be more focused on the future opportunities, rather than fear and threats. With their theory of ‘climate proofing’, they first of all state that it is possible to use large physical networks to reduce the risk of climate change to a level that is accepted by the society or economy. By this they refer to a mitigation strategy. This will result in opportunities for large scale innovations. Second of all, they state that this risk can further be contested with measurements like insurance schemes or evacuation plans (Kabat et al., 2005). To do the climate proof a country or a region has to do relevant tests: so-called, climate change tests. There are two climate change tests where the Netherlands has to deal with. The first test is about the capability to cope with the increased risks of flooding in the regions which are already vulnerable. The second test is time related: how much time is there to adapt climate change. In other words: when is it too late? (Kabat et al., 2005). According to Kabat et al. (2005), there are two basic approaches which could help the Netherlands to combat with the impact of climate change in the future. The first approach is about moving industrial activities, including infrastructure, from below sea- level to higher lands. This is already done in parts of the east of the Netherlands. The second, more futuristic approach, is about creating a so-called ‘hydrometropole’. This is a world in which the inhabitants of the Netherlands learn how to live with and make a living from the water. The data for this last approach is based on an idea of greenhouse horticulture business in the Dutch city of Naaldwijk. Here they have put greenhouses on their own water reservoirs, so they are serving as emergency floodwater storage and at the same time save space (Kabat et al., 2005). Considering both theories of Kwadijk et al. (2010) and Kabat et al. (2005) for this research, the theory about adapting tipping points is more relevant for this study. First of all because it has proven to work in the past with the Eastern surge barrier. Second of all is it a more literature and grounded theory than the one of Kabat et al. (2005). And lastly, the fact that the adapting tipping theory could be used on a broader scale and consist of more features than the theory of Kabat et al. (2005) (Kwadijk et al., 2010).

4.0 Conceptual framework

4.1 Climate change The main relevant concept for this study is climate change; it is the main driver behind the salinization of the ground-water in Zeeland (Rengasamy, 2006; Raats, 2015; De Boer & Radersma, 2011). Therefore, climate change will firstly be discussed through different literature and researchers (Adger et al. 2013; Mearns & Norton 2009; Tol, 2002; Hardy, 2003; Hughes, 2000; Adger et al. 2011; SEDAC, 2018). The one thing that all the literature has agreement on, is the fact that climate change is driven by the emission of greenhouse gasses (GHG). However, the study that is of most important for this research is that from Adger et al. (2011). This is due to the fact that they state that climate change is causing disruption in social, spatial and ecological systems. According to Adger et al. (2011) there is a relation between the places of settlement of households and changes in the physical environment of these places – which arise from environmental change that lead to irreversible losses of natural biodiversity (Adger et al., 2011). For this research, the focus will be on the spatial and social effect of salinization of the groundwater in Zeeland. Therefore, the study of Adger et al. (2011) provides relevant literature for the basis approaches of this research.

9 Regarding to the different theories about climate change, there are two theories that are discussed and compared (Kwadijk et al., 2010; Kabat et al., 2005). The study of Kwadijk et al. (2010), about the Adaption Tipping Point (ATP) theory of climate change is of most important for this research. This study is concerned with the capability of a system to adapt new management and policies when a system reaches a tipping point. (Kwadijk et al., 2010). For the case in Zeeland, this theory will help to give an insight on whether and when water management may fail and other strategies are needed (ibid.).

4.2 Sea-level rise Sea-level rise is an ongoing process that is a result of the increase of the global temperature and has an uncertain character for the future (IPCC, 2007). One of the most important source for data on sea-level rise is the IPCC. This is due to the fact that IPCC data includes measurements of the uncertainties of the future sea-level rise. The IPCC, therefore, is in this case the most solid and reliable source for data on the sea-level rise (IPCC, fourth assessment 2007). As a result, most of the literature on sea-level rise refer back to data from the IPCC (Klige, 1982; Barnett, 1988; Trupin & Wahr 1990; Warrick and Oerlemans, 1990; Church & White, 2006; Nicholls & Casenave, 2010). Significant number of studies that confirm the fact that the sea-level has been rising over the last 100 years (Klige, 1982; Barnett, 1988; Trupin and Wahr 1990). According to Warrick and Oerlemans (1990) in a scientific assessment of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC), the sea-level have been rising over the last 100 years with 1.0 to 2.0 millimetres per year (Warrick & Oerlemans, 1990). The relative sea-level can be both measured by vertical land movements and to changes in the ocean level. Vertical land movements can result from isostatic movements, sedimentation, tectonic process etc. Subsequently, changes of the ocean level can be affected by atmospheric pressures, winds, ocean currents and density of seawater (Warrik & Oerlemans, 1990). Just like Warrik & Oerlemans (1990), Church and White (2006) also state that the sea-level has been rising over the last 100 years. Moreover, they have found in data from the IPCC, that after the year 1993, the sea-level rise has taken a faster pace than before (Figure 2) (Chruch & White, 2006). This mentioned acceleration of the sea-level rise after 1993, will hold on through the 21th century, according to Nicholls and Cazenave (2010). They state that is will be the result of the remaining global warming. Additional, the fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC forecast that the sea-level will rise with 60 centimetres in 2100 (IPCC, 2007). However, Nicholls and Cazenave (2010) state on the basis of simple kinematics and observations of the velocities of marine-terminated glaciers in Greenland that future ice sheets dynamics can cause a rise of 80 centimetres in 2100 (Nicholls & Casenave, 2010). In general, the main, direct causes of sea-level rise are: the expansion of the ocean, the increased melting of mountain glaciers and the decline of the size of the Greenland ice sheet (Warrick & Oerlemans, 1990; Nicholls & Casenave, 2010). The indirect causes of sea-level rise climate change, subsequently the increase of global temperature (ibid.). Despite the fact that the emission of greenhouse gasses will decrease in the future, the assessment of the IPCC, predicts that future sea-level rise will be unavoidable due to the delayed effects in the climate system (Warrick & Oerlemans, 1990). In contrast to the future predictions of the sea-level rise, there is more consensus in the literature on the ecological and social impacts of the sea-level rise. The mentioned effects in the short-term are: (1) increased flooding of coastal land, (2) submergence and (3) saltwater intrusion of surface water. The effects on the long-term could be: (1) increased erosion and (2) saltwater intrusion into groundwater, also called ‘salinization’ (Nicholls & Casenave, 2010; Werner & Simmons, 2011). Coastal zones with dense population, inadequate adaptive capacity and low elevations are the zones which are at highest risk for sea-level rise (ibid.)

10 As stated before, the dynamics of the causes of sea-level rise remain uncertain in the future. That is why there is not one prediction about the future sea-level rise where researchers can fully hold on to (IPCC, 2007).

Figure 2. a: the number of locations with data on sea-level rise. b: the division of places where sea- level rise has occurred from 1980-89, c: 1950-1959 and d 1900-1909. Source: Church and White, 2006.

4.3 Salinization Salinization is defined as a process where groundwater in the soil gets infiltrated by salt water. The process of salinization is one of the effects of sea-level rise and subsequently one of the indirect effects of climate change (Rengasamy 2006, Nicholls & Casenave, 2010). Due to the fact that salinization reacts differently in all countries, it is best explained through the comparison of different, former case studies (Haque, 2006; Khan et al., 2011, Chang-Park et al., 2005; Kim et al., 2003; De Boer & Radersma, 2011). Just like data on sea-level rise, the main source of these researchers is the IPCC. However, the research of Rengasamy (2006) is used as the main source for this research due to the fact that this study considers seawater intrusion as a key source of salinization (Rengasamy, 2006). Nevertheless, case-studies of Haque (2006) and Khan et al. (2011) about the saline water in Bangladesh, are still used to confirm the statements of Rengasamy (2006). The case- studies showed that the saline groundwater, due to tidal flooding, causes unfavourable environmental and hydrological situations for the crop production through the year (Haque, 2006; Khan et al., 2011). Salinization is the most limiting factor for sustainable food production in the coastal area. Due to the loss of crop fertility, it also has a significant socio- economic impact (ibid.). Moreover, the drinking water from sources in coastal areas in Bangladesh have become contaminated by varying degrees or salinity (Kahn et al., 2011). Other studies on the effects of salinization in coastal areas in South-Korea also showed significant impact on ecological conditions and subsequently the socio-economic

11 conditions (Chang-Park et al., 2005; Kim et al., 2003). According to Chang-Park et al. (2005), at least 60 percent of the well ground waters in the west coastal area of South- Korea are affected by salt-intrusion due to sea-level rise (Chang-Park et al., 2005; Kim et al., 2003). However, when is water considered saline? Salinity can be measured in different ways. The first measurement used for this research comes from Engineering Geologists William and Godsey (2017) In their presentation about different states of water, salinity refers to the amount of total dissolved solids (TDS). These TDS can be measured by frequently measured by electrical conductivity (EC). This is due to the fact that ions dissolved in water conduct electricity (William & Godsey, 2017). The intensity of salinity is measured in parts per million or Mg/L (ibid.). In their presentation, William and Godsey classified three different stages of water salinity:

Class TDS in Mg/L 1. Fresh water < 3,000 2. Brackish water 3,000 – 10,000 3. Saline Water  10,000

Thus, in this case, the more total dissolved solids a water consists, the more saline it is (William & Godsey, 2017). However, another way of determining the rate of salinity of a soil is to measure the concentration of chloride in the water. This way of measurement is often used by measurements of salinity in the Netherlands (Deltaproof, 2014). Subsequently, the most common standard used in the Netherlands for classifying of saline water is the ‘Stuyfzand’s classification’ originated in 1993. This classification is based on the vulnerability of crops to salt damage and also makes three classifications (Deltaproof, 2014). In the Stuyfzand’s classification, the chloride concentration is measured in mg chloride per liter (mg Cl-/l). This classification is presented in the next table:

Class Mg Cl-/l 1. Fresh water < 1000 2. Brackish water 1000 – 3000 3. Saline water > 3000

Thus, in this case, the more chloride a water consists, the more saline it is. Due to the fact that this technique is common used in the Netherlands and that it is concerned about the damage it brings to the crops, this technique is used to determine the salinity of the groundwater in Zeeland (Deltaproof, 2014). Every soil has a different soil-water regime and different climate conditions, which all react different of salt-water intrusion and subsequently to the impact of it (US Salinity Laboratory Staff, 1954, mentioned in Rengasamy, 2006). A saline soil has an impact on the quality of the uptake of a plant; a saline soil reduces the ability of a plant to take up water and by ion-excess. This affects the quality of the cells of a plant. Moreover, it produces nutritional imbalance in plants (Rengasamy, 2006). The main sources of salinization are rainfall and rock weathering. However, for coastal areas, seawater intrusion is also a key source of salinization (Rengasamy, 2006). In comparison to thousand years ago, the soil-level now is four meters lower and the sea-level is one meter higher than in the past. The sea-level rise is namely a consequence of the global warming and the soil-level decline is caused by the clinching of clay and digging up peat. Moreover, the direction of the former sweet-water flow was

12 towards the see. Currently, the salt water has interrupted this flow by pushing the sweet- water back inland (Le Gras, Trouw, 2005).

4.4 Livelihood Livelihood is a multi-faceted concept that explains what people do and what they accomplish by doing it. This means that a livelihood refers to both the outcomes of activities of people, as well as the activity itself (Niehof, 2004). It represents: (l) the natural, physical, human, financial and social capital, (ll) the activities and (ll) the access to these activities by institutions and social relations. These three dimensions determine the livelihoods by individuals or households (ibid.). Moreover Scoones (1998) refers to Chambers and Conway (1992) when defining a sustainable livelihood: “livelihood is sustainable when it can cope with and recover from stresses and shocks, maintain or enhance its capabilities and assets, while not undermining the natural resource base”. (Chambers & Conway, 1992; cited in Scoones, 1998). Considering that the salinization in Zeeland will maintain in the future as a result of the ongoing sea-level rise (IPCC, 2007), livelihoods in Zeeland have to be sustainable to cope with the future impact of the salinization. Therefore, the focus will be on sustainable livelihoods (Scoones, 1998). According to Scoones (1998), a sustainable livelihood consists of five key elements: (l) creation of working days, (ll) reduction of poverty, (lll) well-being and capabilities, (lV) livelihoods adaption, vulnerability and resilience and (V), natural resource base sustainability. The first three elements are focusing principally on livelihoods, the last two elements add the sustainable dimension to it (Scoones, 1998). The first element (creation of working days) relates to the ability to create gainful employment for a certain proportion of the year. The concept of employment consists of three main aspects: income (the employers get a wage), production (a consumable output) and recognition (the employment provides recognition for being engaged in a worthwhile process). An employment of 200 days per year will fulfil a livelihood (Scoones, 1998). The second element (poverty reduction) is a quantitative indicator of livelihood, moreover a key criterion in the assessment of livelihoods. There are several measurements that could determine poverty. Based on income and consumptions, an absolute ‘poverty line’ could be developed. Relative poverty and inequality can be assessed with the Gini coefficient (a standard to indicate the division of inequality and poverty) (Yitzhaki, 1979). However, this quantitative assessment of poverty is of value when it is used in combination with more qualitative indicators of livelihood (Scooner, 1998). The third element (Well-being and capabilities) goes beyond the material scope of concerns of food intake or income. Well-being is discussed as the ability of people to set up the ‘criteria-line’ of what they think is important for them. This could be developed within different factors like security, happiness, stress, power, vulnerability, exclusion etc. (Chambers, 1989; cited in Scoones, 1998). The fourth and subsequently the first sustainable element (livelihood adaptation, vulnerability and resilience) is focused on the ability of livelihood to cope with and recover from stresses and shocks. This means that a livelihood is capable of making temporary adjustments in the face of change. Moreover, a livelihood has to be capable to make adjustments on the long-term shifts and changes. This together is called resilience, which is a key element for achieving a sustainable livelihood (Scoones, 1998). The last element for a sustainable livelihood (natural resource base sustainability) refers to the ability of a livelihood to maintain productivity when a natural resource is disturbed by a stress (a small, predictable disturbance) or a shock (a large, unpredictable disturbance with immediate impact). This means that livelihoods should avoid natural resources with a depleting stock to achieve an effectively decline in the rate at which products and services for livelihoods are depended on natural resources. By this, there

13 will be less pressure on the natural sources for maintaining livelihoods which brings a sustainable dimension to livelihoods (Scooner, 1998). Regarding to the livelihoods of the communities in Zeeland, all the elements of Scoones (1998) will be included to determine the impact of the salinization – with a primer focus on the two last sustainable elements (Scooner, 1998).

5.0 Research location In this part, the relevant background on the province of Zeeland are discussed. It outlines the characteristics of Zeeland related to: (1) The geography and he land use, (2) the population and livelihoods, and (3) the history of the relationship between Zeeland and the sea. Most of this information comes from based on statistics and from the Central Bureau of Statistics in the Netherlands (CBS). After this part, there is focused on the location of interest within Zeeland, the Grevelingen lake and the surrounding area. This information is based on the report of the Rijkswaterstaat on the effects of the tidal changes of the Grevelingen lake on the state of agriculture in the near area (Rijkswaterstaat, 2016).

5.1 Zeeland

5.1.1 Land use Zeeland is a province in the southwest of the Netherlands and consists of three islands (figure 3). The islands are separated from each other by the Wester- and Easter Scheldt, which are two estuaries which are both in connection with the North Sea. The total geographical size of Zeeland consists of 293.344 hectares, where 143.800 hectares is used for farming, 2.500 hectares for forest, 8.700 is used for nature, 11.100 hectares for build-on land and 13.200 hectares is used for recreation and industrial purposes. This means that 77% of the of the land area in Zeeland is used for farming (CBS Statline, 2017; CBS factsheet, 2010; Rijksoverheid, 2012). Considering that almost all of the soil in the province are clay soils, the farmers take advantages of the high fertility of the soil. Moreover, ‘water’ takes also a significant position in the land area of Zeeland; 114.000 hectares of the total area is covered by water (Province of Zeeland, 2002).

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Figure 3. A satellite image of Zeeland and the three islands, with a on the Grevelingen lake. Source: GoogleMaps, 2018

Agriculture; crops, animals, land use, region Subject Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Subject Surface Surface Surface Surface Subject Agriculture, total Potato Grains Sugar beet Regions area area area area Groningen (PV) 8400966 2660581 3620251 1378619 Friesland (PV) 2068967 890099 657927 302020 Drenthe (PV) 5815945 2832215 1339216 1261145 Overijssel (PV) 1447343 697468 414952 205456 Flevoland (PV) 6199549 1907565 1414546 1006412 Gelderland (PV) 2076362 567862 934796 296188 Utrecht (PV) 94097 9397 53852 3810 -Holland (PV) 3005273 966122 888335 533168 Zuid-Holland (PV) 3602000 1044869 1278576 521221 Zeeland (PV) 8417936 1942952 2971071 1246024 Noord-Brabant (PV) 6350618 2060710 1550393 1036691 Limburg (PV) 3435650 687302 1283848 744450 Table 1. The categories of agriculture of the 12 provinces in the Netherlands. Source: CBS Statline, 2018.

As stated before, 77% of the area in Zeeland is used as farming (CBS Statline, 2017; CBS factsheet, 2010; Rijksoverheid, 2012). In comparison to the other provinces of The

15 Netherlands, agriculture in Zeeland is significant more represented (CBS, 2012). Agriculture is of significant importance for the economy of Zeeland, subsequently to sustain the livelihoods of the farmers in Zeeland (CBS, land registry, 2012; Gulok, n.d). Table 1 shows the difference in agricultural area between the 12 provinces of the Netherlands. Furthermore, it shows the categorisation of the different crops within Zeeland. As the table makes clear, most of the agricultural land is used for grains and potatoes (respectively 2971071 and 1942952 squared meters).

5.1.2 Population and livelihoods

Only 2 percent of the surface in Zeeland is used for living area. Around 65 percent of the remaining land is used for agriculture and around 15 percent is used for grassland. Moreover, figure 6 on page 18, shows the overall land use in the Netherlands, including that from Zeeland. The figure shows that the overall degree of urbanity in Zeeland is low and the percentage of agricultural land is high. This is due to the fact that Zeeland contains 2.863 agricultural business, which are mostly maintained by farmer families, who live outside the city (CBS, land registry, 2012). Moreover, the statistic in figure 4 shows that most of the farmers are productive in the agriculture (light blue). Considering that these farmers derive their income from the yields of the land, a significant part of the livelihoods of the population of Zeeland are depended on the quality of the agriculture. As stated before in table 1, most of these farmers produce grains, potatoes and sugar beets (CBS, Statline, 2015). All these crops are salt tolerant crops due to the fact that they don’t have to be irrigated by fresh-water. The exact salt-toleration rate of the crops is showed in the graphic of figure 5. Whereas the quality of grains and sugar beets (deep blue) will be damaged at the salt rate of approximately 4900 mg Cl/l, potatoes (purple) will be damaged at the rate of 8000 mg Cl/l (AgriHolland, 2015). Considering that the chloride rate in Zeeland is significant higher than 8000 mg Cl/l (further explanation will follow in the results), the crops of the farmers are damaged already (ibid., 2015). Taking into account that climate change will cause more and longer periods of droughts (IPCC, 2007), irrigation will be needed to maintain the quality of the crops (potatoes, grains and sugar beets), which will lead to less salt-toleration (AgriHolland, 2015; IPCC, 2007). Thus, this will put more pressure on the livelihoods of the farmers.

Figure 4. Division of the land in Zeeland, in comparison to the rest of the Netherlands. Source: CBS, Statline, 2015.

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Figure 5. Relation between salt-toleration (horizontal) and percentage of damage (vertical). Source: AgriHolland, 2015).

Regarding the population, according to CBS, the total population in Zeeland contains 382.486 people in January 2018. In the future, there will be no population growth in Zeeland for the next 20 years – subsequently, the mean of the age will become higher (CBS, 2018). This has some effects on the livelihoods in Zeeland. First of all, the segment of working people in Zeeland will decrease, which will influence the economic situation of Zeeland. Secondly, the ageing of the population will lead to a less attractive housing market and houses will be abended. For these abandoned houses, there has to be a new purpose. Finally, coastal places will attract more elderly people, which also have an effect on the housing market – proposing more houses focusing on the needs of elderly people. Considering that Salinization of the soil will not lead to positive effects on the livelihood attraction of Zeeland, it will also affect the demographic construction of the population (Zeeuwse Nota Waterkeringen, 2010; CBS, 2018).

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Figure 6. Land use in Zeeland in comparison to the rest of the Netherlands. Source: CBS, Land registry, 2012.

The most valuable houses in Zeeland are situated in and Schouwen- Duiveland. The houses here, are worth more than 220.00. However, the less valuable houses in Zeeland are also situated in Walcheren, which is remarkable due to the fact that Walcheren is small in comparison to the other regions of Zeeland. Thus, there is a great variance in housing-values in Walcheren. The average selling price of all the house in Zeeland lies around 193.000 euros (CBS, 2016).

5.1.3 Zeeland and the sea

Overall, The Netherlands has struggled with sea-level rise over the past hundred years. Especially for low-lying areas like Zeeland, the rise of the sea-level has caused damage in the past. The flood in February 1953 is the most damaging flood Zeeland has ever faced; it took the life of 1863 people and 150.000 hectare of land was covered with salt water (Van der Ham, 2006). This flood broke through the highly protected system of dikes and dunes, which were constructed by the ‘Rijkswaterstaat’. This is a government department in the Netherlands, that works on a safe, liveable and accessible Netherlands (Rijkswaterstaat, 2012). The flood of 1953 had both economic as well as socio-economic impacts on Zeeland. The Economic impact relates to the new protection of the coastal areas of both Zeeland as well as the rest of the Netherlands. This included dike raising and dune strengthening. The socio-economic impact of sea-level rise relates to loss of coastal areas, salinization, seepage and drainage problems. Due to the known socio-economic impact of sea-level rise of the past, almost all dikes along the Dutch coast are raised to a height

18 where they are capable of offer protection against a storm of plus 5 meters N.A.L (Den Elzen & Rotmans, 1992). As mentioned in the theoretical framework, a water working system can reach a adaption tipping point (ATP): “.. points where the magnitude of change due to climate change or sea-level rise is such that the current management strategy will no longer be able to meet the objectives.” (Kwadijk, 2010). At the end of the last century, Zeeland, and thereby the Netherlands, have reached an ATP: The storm surge barrier. This was the last piece from the Delta Project in the Netherlands, which was introduced to protect the southwest of the Netherlands against flooding. At first, it was mainly build as a flooding defence structure. However, due to increased ecological awareness and social and political pressure, it has developed into an open barrier, where it also served as safety for ecological values and shell fisheries (Mulders & Louters, 1994; Louters et al., 1998; Kwadijk, 2010). The Eastern Scheldt surge barrier is showed in figure 7.

Figure 7. The Eastern Scheldt surge barrier, with the ocean on the left side of the barrier and the Eastern Scheldt on the right side. Source: Maritime News, 2017.

Currently, the KMNI and the delta commission have set up a climate scenario together with the IPCC for Zeeland and have predict a temperature increase of 6 degrease. Moreover, the sea-level will rise with 0.55 to 1.2 meter in 2100 and with 2 to 4 meters in 2200. The soil-level decline is predicted at 5 to 20 centimetres in 2100. Subsequently, the soil-level decline could reinforce the sea-level rise and thereby the salinization of the ground-water in Zeeland (Zeeuwse Nota Waterkeringen, 2010). In comparison to the past prediction in 2006 of the IPCC, the temperature rise is higher and thereby also sea-level rise. (ibid.). For the fact that the sea-level in Zeeland will go on and also will increase, it is relevant to look at the consequences of these changes in the future. Figure 8 below, shows the vulnerable parts to flooding in Zeeland (Data portal Zeeland, 2016).

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Figure 8. vulnerable areas to flooding in Zeeland. Source: Data portal Zeeland (2016).

Zeeland has been faced with the consequences of their position as a low-lying delta and the rising sea-level, which started in the Holocene period (Kwadijk et al., 2010; Kabat et al., 2005; Post, 2004). The relationship between geological history and groundwater salinity has been adequately examined by Post (2004), and shows the chloride concentration in the different part of the layers of the soil in the Netherlands in 1993. Figure 9 below shows that the chloride concentration in Zeeland in 1993 was between 10.000 and 20.000 mg Cl-/l in the upper 20 meters of the soil (Post, 2004). Considering that a chloride concentration of more than 3000 mg/l is classified as saline water, it can be concluded that the ground water in the top layer of the soil in Zeeland was already saline in 1993 (Baaren et al., 2010; Oude Essink & de Louw, 2014; Post, 2004).

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Figure 9. The chloride concentration of 20, 40, 80 and 120 meters below sea- level in 1993. Source: Post, 2004.

5.2 The Grevenlingen Lake

5.2.1 Topographic location The Grevelingen lake is located in the north of Zeeland, between the island Schouwen- Duiveland and Goree-Overflakkee (figure 3). The lake is created through the creation of two dams. The first dam that was created in 1964, which shut the Grevelingen down from the sweet-water from the -Zommeer. This resulted in an inflow of only salt-water from the North Sea and this made the Grevelingen Lake an arm of the sea. However, also this opening was shut down in 1971, which created the Grevelingen Lake (Central of Tides, 2013). Currently, the Grevelingen Lake is the biggest salt-water lake of West Europe. The total size of lake is 110000 hectares and it consist of 3000 hectares of sand-banks and tidal muds, which are valuable for the nature and the living of micro-organisms (Vlaams- Netherlands Scheldt Commission, 2018). The average depth of the lake is 4,5 meters deep. However, in the middle of the lake there is a channel for shipping, which has a depth of 48 meters. Around the lake, there is a dike of 66 meters long. Besides this, there is are the two linking dams: the Brouwersdam (6,5 km) and the Grevelingendam (6 km). The Brouwersdam lies between the North-Sea with the Grevenlingen lake and the Grevelingendam lies between the Grevenlingen lake and the Volkerak-Zoomlake. The two

21 dams are made clear with ‘1’ (Brouwersdam) and ‘2’ (Grevelingendam) on the map in figure 3 (Rijkswaterstaat, 2015). Due to the fact that this thesis is interested in the salinization of the surrounding area of the Grevelingen lake (Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakke), the focus will be on these two islands.

5.2.2 Recreation sector In contrast to the agricultural sector, the recreation sector benefits from the salinization; the environment of the Grevelingen lake offers the perfect conditions for recreation and tourism. Therefore, there are high interests in the recreation- and the tourism sector of the Grevelingen Lake. Since the closing of the Brouwersdam in 1971, the lake has become of high natural and recreational value to the municipality of Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee. The recreation-sector of the Grevelingen Lake offers several day-recreation places, yacht-harbours, water sport islands and small beaches where people can swim. Moreover, the lake is of significant importance for the surfing and diving sector – due to the clear, salt water (Teeuwen&Van Leeuwen, 1997). However, the lake has become less attractive for recreation due to the fact that ending of the tidal change with the sea resulted in a decrease of the water quality and biodiversity, which became visible since 2011 (Dirkx & Wortelboer, 2011). Thus, for the recreation sector, salinization is seen as a natural and stimulating factor for their sector. Moreover, a new opening in the Brouwersdam – to bring back the tide – will encourage the recreation sector of Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee. This incentive will be discussed later on in the results. Figure 10 shows the recreation-sector of the Grevelingen lake, from own observations.

Figure 10. Recreation on and around the Grevelingen lake. Source: own observations, 9th of May 2018.

22 6.0 Methodology

6.1 Research design

This study uses a mixed-method research design. This means that the research is divided in a quantitative research and a qualitative research (Bryman, 2012) In the first, more quantitative, part of the research, it is about collecting measurable features and data on ecological changes like sea-level rise and the measurable impact of it. The measurable features presented in the first part of the results are guided by the first sub-question of this research: What are the main impacts of the sea-level rise, on the salinization rate in Zeeland and in Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee? Considering the fact that this question could be answered with methods and data in numerical forms, a quantitative research is suitable (Punch 2013, p. 3). For the second, more qualitative part, of the results, the second sub question of this research is used as the guiding line. The question ‘How are the livelihoods of the farmers of Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee effected in their livelihoods by the salinization of the land?’, needs an answer that gives clarification. Moreover, this question, could not be answered in only numerical forms. Due to this fact, empirical qualitative research will be conducted. On the one hand, it is a way of thinking with different approaches, which involves a collection of clusters and methods and non-numerical data (Punch 2013, p. 3). But on the other hand, qualitative research is focused on discovering and clarifying social relations within a research (Flick 2014 p. 11). As stated before, this research focus on how the communities are effected by the salinization of the land. Thus, this empirical research tries to uncover the social effects, experience/perceptions of salinization. It seeks to find the underlying relation between the effect of the salinization and the impact on the Livelihoods in Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee. Using the mixed-methods strategy brings both the quantitative as well as the qualitative research together at the point where new insights and information requires new data for clarification. In this research that will be the case when the question of the how, that arises from the quantitative research, will be enlightened by the qualitative research of this research (Bryman, 2012).

6.2 Data collection For the quantitative research, data on measureable phenomena and the ecological differences over time are collected. The collection of the data comes from the last 18 years on sea-level rise and land use in Zeeland, through several studies on this subject in Zeeland. This is the result of the fact that there have been done several studies on the sea-level rise in Zeeland in this period (Van Konigsveld et al., 2008; Beets & van der Spek, 2000). These data come from databases from the data portal of the Dutch government and datasets from the Esri, The Netherlands (Ministry of Foreign Affair 2018; Esri Nederland, 2018). These datasets are suitable to use in GIS. After processing and analysing the data is used to give answer to the first, quantitative part of the research question, namely: ‘What is the effect of the salinization in Zeeland due to the sea-level rise,…’. This data comes from reports of water organisations and statistic resources like the Rijkswaterstaat, Deltares, Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) and the Province of Zeeland. For the second, qualitative part, of the research, the sample population is divided in two groups: (I)The farmers in the surrounding area of the Grevelingen Lake and (II) the people and organizations which are involved by – or interested in – the processes of the salinization in Zeeland. The choice for the first group (the farmers) is made due to the fact

23 the second part of the research question is about the effect ‘on the livelihoods of the farmers in the region around the Grevelingen Lake.’ This makes it a purposive sampling, where the research question gives an indication about where the data needs to come from (Bryman 2012, 416). At first, all the contacted farmers said that they would fill in the survey and moreover, send it to more farmer colleagues around the Grevelingen Lake. However, out of the 10 chosen farmers around the Grevelingen lake, only 2 farmers responded to the survey. Unfortunately, this was the outcome after (re-)sending requests to all of the farmers, agricultural corporations and people of the municipality to fill in the survey. The response was still zero after sending reminders and urgent requests to all of the contacted farmers and corporation to co-operate with the survey. By the time of writing, after numerous reminders, they didn’t give any response to the survey. Due to this there is only data conducted from 2 farmers around the Grevelingen lake. However, to supplement the gap in this data I’ve visited a gathering of 3 farmers – including my own uncle – in Borsele. Borsele is a village, situated on the middle island of Zeeland, Walcheren. During this gathering, the three farmers told me about their experiences on the impact of the salinization in Walcheren. Despite the fact that Walcheren doesn’t fall within the research location, the collected data shows interesting results on the impact of salinization in Walcheren. Furthermore, the choice for the second group of interest – which consists of 5 persons – is made to ensure a wide variation op possible dimensions of interest. This makes the sampling a maximum variation sampling. In this way, the data for this research is derived from different points of view and dimensions, which could lead to new insights and discussion points on the subject at the end of the thesis for possible further research (Bryman 2012, p. 419). The five respondents that are chosen for this research – who also gave permission to reveal their names – are Wim Borm, Louis van der Kallen, Peter van Sante, Jos Hoeijmakers and Wil Lases. The next subsection will give an introduction of these people.

1. Wim Borm. Wim Borm is the head member of the advice bureau Borm&Huijgens. This advice bureau is focussed on the integral water policy on a national scale. Their goals are: (l) water safety, (ll) sufficient fresh-water supplies, (lll) the prevention of salinization and (lV) a qualitative and vital water system for the Netherlands. They give advice and suggestions to existing incentives in the field of integral water policy (Borm&Huijgens, 2018). 2. Louis van der Kalle. Louis van der Kalle is a party chairman of the water organisations ‘ONS WATER’. ONS WATER, which in English means ‘our water’, focus on: (l) water safety, (ll) a balance between people, profit and planet and (lll) creating a vital environment for our future generation (onswater, 2018). 3. Jos Hoeijmakers. Jos Hoeijmakers is a member of the general water board association of the Netherlands. This national, non-political organisation tries to find the balance between Water safety, water policy, water purification and natural water. They support the interests of the inhabitants of the Netherlands (Algemene Waterschappen 2018). 4. Wil Lases. Wil Lases has experience with water governance of the Western-Scheldt in Zeeland and developments that has to do with physical natural waters (Linkedin, 2018). 5. Peter van Sante. Peter van Sante is a member of the environment department of the municipality of Schouwen-Duiveland (Peter van Sante, 2018).

The collection of the data from the two groups is conducted through the use of a survey. However, on both surveys, a different research instrument is used. For the farmers and

24 two people of the second group, a self-completion questionnaire is used. The self- completion questionnaire was send by email to the farmers, Wil Lases and Jos Hoeijmakers by email as an attached file. Furthermore, for the three other persons of the second group I conducted different unstructured interviews, where the questions are tailored to the expertise of the person of interest. In total, three interviews were done: two over the phone and one face to face. Figure 11, adapted from the book of Bryman, gives a clear framework of the process of the survey, fixed to this research (Bryman 2012, p. 186). Besides the above-mentioned tools of survey, observations are also made of the Grevelingen Lake and the surrounding area. This data is collected to get a feeling of the research location. What do people do, what is the environment, what kind of people does the Grevelingen Lake attract etc. (Bryman 2012, p. 431).

Figure 11. The survey framework, copied from Bryman (2012), adjusted to this research. Note: CAPI= computer-assisted personal interviewing, CATI = computer-assisted telephone interview.

6.3 Data analysis The collected data of both the quantitative and qualitative part of the research first needs to be managed. This means that the data has to be checked and ordered to establish if there are any obvious flaws in the data collection (Bryman 2012, p. 13). For this research, a flaw arose during the transcription of the interviews: It became clear that one interviewee didn’t articulated clearly enough at some points. However, the unwell articulated parts didn’t concern the significant data for the research. The quantitative data on the salinization rate is partly presented through already existing layer-maps and frameworks from the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). Besides this, constructed layer maps are adapted from several studies to describe the effect of salinization on coastal areas (Baaren et al., 2010; Wageningen Environmental Research Instute, n.d). Furthermore, data from the Data Portal of the Dutch Government is generated

25 into a layer map about the salinization rate of Zeeland in comparison to the rest of the Netherlands. This map layer is self-generated through the use of GIS (geographic information system). For the interviews, the audio material was transcribed, subsequently the resulting textual data was processed using ATLAS Ti, by the means of coding. This data analysis approach is also applied for this research, where 35 are used to determine: the cause; the impact; and the future impact of the salinization around the Grevelingen Lake. Some codes are objective like ‘sea-level rise’ and some are subjective like ‘negative opinion’. However, not all the codes turned out to be significant for the research. The codes that are used are divided over the three mentioned perspectives are and as follows (the cause, the impact and the future):

1. The cause: Sea-level rise, soil decline, significant cause, influences of the past, human activities and cause salinization. 2. The impact: Tide negative, impact farmers, negative, recreation positive, opinion Brouwersdam plan, freshwater-supply, oxygen-less water, freshwater on earth and current situation 3. Future impact: Adjusting farmers, continuous sea-level rise, long-term, negative impact future, future, future-scenario and giving op Zeeland.

After the coding, the useful data is analysed through the use of a ‘coding schedule’, where every relating data on an item is presented. As a result, the useful data came forward and are used in the part of the results of this research (Bryman 2012, p. 13).

7.0 Results

First of all, the results focus on the trends in sea-level rise and salinity in Zeeland, where the current situation of salinity is presented. It gives answer to the first (quantitative) questions of this study, namely: (l) What are the main impacts of the sea-level rise, on the salinization rate in Zeeland and in Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee? Moreover, it includes both the influence of the soil composition as well as the influence of the plan to bring back the tide to the Grevelingen lake – on the rate of the salinization. Hereafter, the results focus on the impact of the salinization on the land use and the agrarian livelihoods of the communities around the Grevelingen lake. This section gives answer to the last (qualitative) question of this study: ‘How are the farmers of Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee effected in their livelihoods by the salinization of the land?’. The results first of all focus on how the land use is affected by the salinization around the Grevelingen lake. Furthermore, it shows how the communities are affected in their livelihoods by the salinization of the land – with the focus on the long term to determine the sustainability of their livelihoods (Scooner, 1998). As stated in the data collection section, these results are derived from the data from the perspectives of the farmers and other involved water organizations. Finally, the results are presented in a framework analysis, which gives an overview of the main findings.

7.1 Trends in Sea-level rise and Salinity Zeeland

7.1.1 Salinity in Zeeland According to groundwater expert Gualbert Oude Essink of TNO Utrecht, not only the sea- level rise intensifies the salinization process of the groundwater of Zeeland, but also the

26 decline of ground-level is a reinforcing factor (Le gras, Trouw, 2005). The Process of the salinization in the coastal areas of Zeeland is sketched in figure 12 and figure 13. The second figure takes the future sea-level rise into account due to the climate change (Baaren et al., 2010). The figure shows that the salt sea water tries to make a way into the fresh water lens. Furthermore, the sea-level rise will increase this pressure of the salt water intrusion and the pressure on the fresh water lens, which will decrease the volume of this lens. Due to the fact that the infiltration capacity of saline ground water lens is lower than that of fresh-water lens, the infiltration of the rainwater will be delayed. This will lead to accumulation of rainwater and subsequently to flooding (Baaren et al., 2010).

Figure 12. Process of salinization of coastal areas in Zeeland, taking into account the sea-level rise and the increase in precipitation. Source: Baaren et al., 2010.

Figure 13. Process of salinization of coastal areas in Zeeland, taking into account the sea-level rise and the increase in precipitation. Source: Baaren et al., 2010.

27

According to a measurement in 2014, the intensity of salinization in Zeeland is high in comparison to the other part of the Netherlands (figure 14) (Dataportal of Dutch Government, 2014). This is significant difference with other parts of the Netherlands is due to the effect of the soil degradation and the sea-level rise (Baaren et al., 2010). As mentioned in the conceptual framework, the intensity of the salinity of the groundwater is measured by in mg Cl/l and will be classified by the Stuyfzand’s classification (Oude Essink & de Louw, 2014). This classification is conducted to the study of Baaren et al. (2010) about the modelling study, which concerns the salinization and freshening of phreatic ground waters in Zeeland, on behalf of Deltares – an international knowledge institute about water and soils (Baaren et al., 2010). The results of this study show the concentration of chloride in different parts of Zeeland in the upper 130 meters of the soil (figure 15). Furthermore, the surface level of the parts is also given in meters distance from the sea-level. In total, there have been 7 measurements done over different parts in Figure 14. Salinity of Zeeland in Zeeland. The result shows that in every measured part, Comparison the rest of the there is a higher concentration of 15000 mg Cl-/l. It also Netherlands. Source: Data portal of shows that the chloride concentration decreases when the Dutch Government, 2014. GIS. going inland (part 2,3 and 4). It also can be concluded that the upper (fresh water lens) layer of the soil is also under pressure in some parts of Zeeland (part 1,5, 6 and 2). This also confirms the process of pressure on the fresh water lens represented in the figure 8 and 9 (Baaren et al., 2010). Considering that the Stuyfzand’s classification, considers water ‘saline’ when the concentration is higher than 3000 mg Cl-/l, it can be concluded that a significant part of the groundwater in Zeeland is considered saline (Baaren et al., 2010; Oude Essink & de Louw, 2014). Comparing the two chloride concentrations of 10.000-20.0000 mg/l in 1993 and more than 15.0000 mg/l in 2010, it can be concluded that the concentration of chloride in the soil of Zeeland has not decreased and that the boundary of the chloride concentration is expanded in the years between 1993 and 2010 (Post, 2004; Baaren, 2010) Moreover, taking into account that the research of Baaren et al. (2010) is done in 2010, it can be estimated that salinity of the groundwater – as a result of the sea-level rise – is characterized as an increasing trend (Zeeuwse Nota Waterkeringen, 2010; Baaren et al., 2010).

28

Figure 15. Chloride concentration, measured in different parts of Zeeland, given in mg Cl-/l. Source: Baaren et al., 2010.

7.1.2 Influence soil composition The composition is of interest because it enables understanding of the infiltration rate of the soil, and subsequent salinization rate. Figure 16 shows the soil composition of Schouwen-Duiveland. It is measured from the left to the ride side of the island to the right side of the island and to a depth of 210 meters beneath sea-level. The first layer of the soil consists of the covering layer of the soil. The layer beneath this covering layer is the first ‘water carrying’ layer. This layer consists of sand, which means that the drainage rate of the soil is higher than that of clay or silt (Albert Tietema, lecture Food Production, 2017). As a consequence, the salt water from the Grevenlingen can easily infiltrate in the soil of Schouwen-Duiveland. A sea-level rise will increase the infiltration rate of the salt water (Sanderse, 2016). Figure 17 shows the soil composition of Goeree-Overflakkee, the island on the North-side of the Grevenlingen lake. In contrast to Schouwen-Duivenland, the covering layer of Goeree-Overflakkee is represented in the total area of the of the island – consisting of a thick layer. This layer has a minimal thickness of 15 meters, which not automatically means that the resilience of the layer is high and the drainage rate is low. However, in the case of Goeree-Overflakkee, the topsoil is made of sea-lay, clayey sand, sandy clay and peat – which means that the topsoil has a high resilience and a low drainage rate. These constructions of clay and sandy clay are the result of sediment deposits in the Holocene, and are also traced back in the island of Schouwen-Duiveland (Sanderse, 2016).

29 On both islands, salt groundwater is present. However, this was not always the case; in the last 7500 years, there has been a change in the salt and fresh water division. In the past, the sea-level was lower and the soil was higher. Nowadays, the sea-level has risen and the soil level has declined in Zeeland, due to clinching and reclaiming of peat. As a consequence, the salt water from sea could infiltrate in the groundwater system through the water-carrying layers of both the soils (Sanderse, 2016). Moreover, the infiltrating salt groundwater puts pressure on the fresh-water lens of both the island (ibid.).

Figure 16. The soil composition of Schouwen-Duiveland. Source: Sanderse, 2016.

The low-lying areas in Schouwen-Duiveland have a high chloride-rate in the groundwater. This high chloride-rate is mostly traced back under the top-layer of the soil and consist of more than 10.000 Mg cl/l, which is showed before in figure 13 of Baaren et al. (2010 (Deltares, 2010; Sanderse, 2016). Only in the top of Schouwen-Duiveland, there is one ‘fresh-water bel’, where the chloride-rate is less than 10.000 Mg cl/l (figure 13) (Baaren et al., 2010; Sanderse, 2016; Deltares, 2010).

30 The chloride-rate of the Goeree-Overflakkee in the bottom of the top soil has a lower chloride-rate than that of Schouwen-Duiveland (1000-3000 mg Cl/l). In the top of the island, the groundwater is fresh in the dune area. This can be clarified by the fact that the salty-sea-water makes his way to the groundwater by going under the dunes. This process is shown in figure 18 (Sanderse, 2016).

Figure 17. The soil composition of Goeree-Overflakee. Source: Sanderse, 2016.

Figure 18. Salt-water infiltration process, under the dune-area. Source: Sanderse, 2016.

7.1.3 Influence tidal change Since 1971, the Grevelingen Lake has been closed off from the North Sea by the Brouwersdam. This has resulted in a decrease of the oxygen rate in the water, subsequently leading to a decrease in water quality the Government came up with a plan

31 to restore this situation (Sanderse, 2016). The first solution to bring quality and life back to the Grevelingen Lake is to bring back limited tide to the lake through an opening in the Brouwersdam. According to a study of Deltares – a knowledge institute of water and land –, a limited tide of 50 centimetres around the current water level (-20 centimeters under sea-level), will result in a 60-70 percent quality increase of the life in the Grevelingen Lake (Rijkswaterstaat Sea and Delta, 2014; Deltares, 2011; Sanderse, 2016). The opening in the Brouwersdam will include a turbine that can generate electricity to sell, so in this way the costs that are made for building the project can be earned back (Sanderse, 2016). However, the limited tide of the above-mentioned tide does not include the consequences of the sea-level rise in the future. Therefore, the Government has decided to use the current sea-level as the ‘central water level’, with a tide of 25 centimetres below this central water level and 25 centimetres above this level. This ‘central water level’ is based on the maximal measured sea-level rise of 25 centimetres in the next 85 years. According to the environmental effects rapport of 2014, the tidal decay between the North Sea and the Grevelingen becomes too large to process; the exchange rate of the water is too short. By choosing this ‘central water level’ instead of the current water level (-20 centimeters below sea-level), the government has taken the rise of the sea-level rise into account and thereby the effects. The chosen scenario for bringing back the tide is shown in figure 19 (Environment effects report, Rijksstructuurvisie Grevelingen and Volkerak- Zommeer, 2014). Subsequently figure 20 shows the design of the project (Power plant of tidal changes of the Brouwersdam, Southwestern Delta, 2018).

Figure 19. The chosen tide change scenario by the Government. Source: Sanderse, 2016.

Figure 20. Design of the opening in the Brouwersdam. Source: Southwestern Delta, 2018.

The incentive to bring back the tide in the Grevelingen Lake is derived from a couple of goals from the government, namely:

5 Climate safety. The opening in the Brouwersdam is considered as a change to let the water from the Volkerak-Zoom Lake and the Grevelingen flow away in the North Sea.

32 Taking into account that the Volkerak-Zoom Lake will function as a crisis intake of rivers, an opening into the Brouwersdam will lead to a better outflow of the redundant water (Consultation document of the power plant of tidal changes, Brouwersdam, 2013). 6 Water quality. The current water quality of the Grevenlingen Lake is bad due to little oxygen in the under layer of the lake and the still standing water. This has resulted in a decrease of the biodiversity of the lake. By bringing back the tide in the lake, the lake will have a consequent through flow again, which will increase the biodiversity and quality of the water (ibid.) 7 Sustainable-energy- and innovate agenda. The turbine in the opening in the Brouwersdam offers the change to win energy from it. This contributes not only to the support of sustainable energy on local and regional goals, but the knowledge could also be exported to other new projects (ibid.). 8 Regional-economic, touristic and recreation structure. The opening and subsequently the ‘refreshing’ of the Grevelingen Lake will give a boost to the recreation sector. It will attract more water sport, diving and fishing, which will benefit the economy of Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee (ibid.). 9 New changes for the nature. Bringing back the tide to the Grevelingen Lake could result in new forms of nature. This could for example lead to new sorts of plants, vegetation and sedimentation (ibid.).

However, the goals of the government do not include the interests of the local communities and farmers of Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakee. In the next paragraph, the results of this thesis will be discussed. It will become clear what the social effects are of the plan, and subsequently the salinization, on the local communities and farmers.

7.2 Land use and agrarian livelihoods in Zeeland

7.2.1 Land use As figure 19 shows, most of the land on Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee is used for agriculture. There are some dry-natural and wet natural terrains like the dunes and the meadow land behind the dunes. For Goeree-Overflakkee, the case is the same;

33 most of the area is used for agriculture and some parts are used for forests, dry and wet natural terrains. The map in figure 21 also shows that the urban areas are underrepresented on both the islands, just like figure 6 had mentioned before (CBS, 2012). The total land that was used for agriculture in Schouwen- Duiveland in 2010 was 15.881 hectares. That is 69 % of all the total used land on the Island (CBS, 2011). The total land that is used for agriculture in Goeree- overflakkee is 16.000 hectares. This is 61,08% of all the used land on the Island (LTO North, 2016). Thus, agriculture is on both Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee well presented. Moreover, the maps on figures 22 and 23 zoom in on the kind of crop production of the islands. The data from these maps is used by the Wageningen Environmental Research institute and the data originates from the daltaportaal of the Rijkswaterstaat (sd.). First of all, the map of Schouwen-Duiveland shows that potatoes (brown), grains (yellow), agricultural grass (green) and beets (deep-pink) are the most common crops on the island. Besides this, on the Figure 21. Land use of Zeeland, 2010. Source, Westside of the island, most land is used CBS, 2012. for natural grass, deciduous forests and pine forests. Secondly, the map of Goeree-Overflakkee shows that most of the land is also used for potatoes (brown), beets (deep-pink), grains (yellow), agricultural grass (green) and natural grasslands (brownish) (Wageningen Environmental Research Institute, sd.). Thus, both islands produce more or less the same crops, subsequently, experience the same effects of the salinization of the ground (Van Baaren & Harezlak, 2011; Sanderse, 2016). Regarding the choice of crops, both the Islands have picked crops which are suitable for the current environment and conditions of the ground (Sanderse, 2016). Subsequently, on both islands, where the groundwater has a high salt-rate and the fresh- water lens is relative thin, they have chosen namely grasses, grains and beets because these crops are salt-tolerant. Crops like Flower bulbs and other horticulture crops are less salt-tolerant and for this reason also not represented on both Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee (Sanderse, 2016).

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Figure 22. Land use Schouwen-Duivenland. Source: Wageningen Environmental Research Instute (sd.).

Figure 23. Land use Goeree-Overflakkee. Source: Wageningen Environmental Research Institute (sd.).

7.2.2 Agrarian livelihoods The first interesting findings on the farmers perspective was that both respondents stated that the salinization of the ground has always been there and that they are used to it. One of the respondents grows potatoes and grain and the other respondent grows potatoes, grain, sugar beets, sprouts, unions and marrowfat pea. According to them the effects on the crops are nil. However, they both also state that this will change when the Government decides to bring back the tide to the Grevelingen Lake. According to the farmers, bringing back the tide in combination with the expected sea-level rise (IPCC, 2007), will result in negative effects of the salinization, subsequently for the farmers. Moreover, they both

35 agree on the fact that on the long-term, the farmland will become less attractive for farmers and will negatively influence the livelihoods of the farmers in this area. From observations during the visit to my own uncle, it became clear that the farmers on Walcheren don’t experience salinization of the ground as something that affect their way of farming and subsequently their livelihoods. According to all these farmers, salinization is not a problem at all. They emphasize the fact that the thick clay of Zeeland creates perfect circumstances for the producing of potatoes, unions and sugar beets. Moreover, they don’t consider these crops as special ‘salt-tolerant’ crops, due to the fact that they’ve always produced these crops. Another benefit they refer to is the fact that the thick clay soil in Walcheren has a strong water-holding capacity, which results in almost no need of irrigation. Also, the low filtration rate of clay keeps the upper groundwater layer from salt-water intrusion. There is one place on Walcheren which is called the ‘salt field’, where the groundwater is to salt to produce crops. This is caused by the fact that this field is a significant low-lying field, in comparison to other fields in Walcheren. However, right next to this field, a fruit breeding farm is situated. Likewise, there is one field at the Muidenweg at the village Wolphaartsdijk, that is significant salt due to the low-lying land. Here, they breed grass wort (zeekraal). Thus, on Walcheren, there are just some places that are effected with the effects of salinization. However, this is not considered as a negative impact. Advice group ‘Borm&Huijgens’, and Wil Lases states that salinization would never been a problem if there was no decline of the soil level, Louis van der Kallen from the water organisation ONSWATER, states that there is no decline of the soil in Zeeland in the first place. Likewise, Jos Hoeijmakers from the general body of surveyors of the dikes argued that he had no clue of a declining soil in Zeeland. However – in contrast to the soil decline – there is full consensus over the fact that the sea-level rise plays a significant role in causing the salinization in Zeeland.

7.2.3 Impact on livelihoods There are different explanations about the impact of salinization on livelihoods of local residents of Zeeland. The most conflicting results come from the advice group Borm&Huijgens and ONSWATER. First of all, the advice group, considers the salinization of the ground around the Grevelingen lake as a direct threat for the farmers and the freshwater supply of Zeeland. Moreover, it could affect the safety of the inhabitants of Zeeland by changing the groundwater system of the two islands. They argue that if the salinization will go on in the future, Zeeland will become a lost case, which the state could ‘just as well give up to the sea’ (W. Borm, personal communication, May 7, 2018). In contrast, ONSWATER states that the social impact of the salinization around the Grevelingen would not be a significant threat because the farmers will adapt new kinds of salt tolerant crops in their choice of crops, which they have done for actually their whole farming career. “They will survive”, said Louis van der Kallen from the water organisation. According to him the life quality of the average inhabitant around the Grevelingen would also not be affected by the salinization. Whereas Louis van der Kallen states that the farmers of Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee have worked with the salinization their whole farming career, Jos Hoeijmakers (member of the general water board) sees the salinization of the ground as a threat and as a starting point for adapting new salt-tolerant crops to their agricultural way of working. He mentions this as a direct impact on their livelihoods (Jos Hoeijmakers, 2018). For the point of view of the average inhabitant, Hoeijmakers state that their livelihoods will not be directly affected by the salinization in any kind of way (personal communication, May 7, 2018).

36 Moreover, Peter van Sante (from the environment department of the municipality of Schouwen-Duiveland) states that the current state of the Grevelingen Lake is not causing big threats to the salinization of the ground and thereby to the farmers and inhabitants of Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee (Personal contact, May 9, 2018). Besides the impact on the livelihoods, there are also conflicting explanations about the impact on the attractiveness of residency in Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree- Overflakkee. Advice group Borm&Huijgens state that the attraction to settle on Schouwen- Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee will decrease. According to them, the intensive work of the farmers in combination with the salinization will ‘burn out’ the quality of the ground. According to Wil Borm, in a couple of years, the land in Zeeland will become worthless, which will have negative influence on the settlement attraction of Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee. Wil Lases agrees with the statement of the advice group Borm&Huijgens that the salinization of the ground will make the quality of the soil worthless. According to him, this will put pressure on the quality of life of the farmers and this will leaf them in a position where there is no other option than to settle elsewhere to maintain production for their livelihoods. Due to this, the attraction to settle around the Grevelingen Lake will decrease. In contrast to Borm&Huijgens, Jos Hoeijmakers cannot find a reason why the salinization of the ground will influence the livelihoods of the farmers of Schouwen- Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee. Hence, he refers to the recreation-sector in and around the Grevelingen, which is, according to him, a charm to settle around the Grevelingen Lake. According to him this will counterbalance the negative impact of the salinization of the ground. Despite the clashing statements and opinions on the impact of the salinization, there is consensus on the fact that the farmers are influenced in their choice of crops. The salinization denies the opportunity for farmers to produce salt-intolerant crops.

7.2.4 Tidal change on Grevelingen lake The incentive of the Rijkswatersstaat – to bring back the tide in the Grevelingen Lake – elicited diverse responses from the respondents. According to Sanderse (2016) this will influence the salinization rate and subsequently the impact on the inhabitants of Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee (Sanderse, 2016). Louis van der Kallen sees the government plan as a positive boost for the recreation sector (diving, surfing and sailing), which is in his view more important than the possible increase of the negative effects of the salinization on the local communities. Thereby, he refers to the fact that also the nature will benefit from the plan as a result an increase in water quality in the Grevelingen Lake and thereby more biodiversity. From my own observations on the 9th of May 2018, it was apparent that the recreation sector in and around the Grevelingen Lake is booming. There were a lot of windsurfers, sailors and people who just enjoyed the nature around the Grevelingen Lake. Moreover, there were caravans and campers alongside the lake, where people were barbequing and hanging out. These observations are captured in figure 24. From these observations, it appeared that the recreation sector plays an important role in the everyday activities of the lake. For the Government, this sector is a leading stimulation for bringing back the tide in the Grevelingen lake. Peter van Sante states that the tidal change will be significant low that it will take a long time before the farmers and the local communities will experience the effects of it. However, he speaks from the perspective of the farmers nearby the Grevelingen when he says that the farmers on the North-side of the lake are worried about the decision of bringing back the tide. However, he modifies this statement because the farmers can ‘reclaim’ the visible changes due to the process of the salinization by referring to the ‘zero-

37 measurement’ that has been set by the government. The ‘zero-measurement’ means that every change of salinization or tidal change – from now on – can be measured and used by the farmers to verify changes. This could serve as a support for the farmers. Nevertheless, according to van Santen, the average inhabitant of Shouwen-Duiveland or Goeree-Overflakkee will not recognize any differences regarding their livelihoods. The advice group Borm&Huijgens on the other hand has a different view on the effectiveness of the tidal change in the Grevelingen lake. According to Wil Borm this is “a horrible plan”. He argues that we are protecting and prizing the wrong water, namely the salt water, which is seen as worthless to the livelihoods of the local communities. According to him, we must be economical with the scarce – fresh water – because when salt water gets into the soil, it is impossible to get it out. It will increase the salinization rate and thereby the fresh water supply for Zeeland, which is needed for life. Besides this, he also refers to the fact that the plan will not purchase the aim of the plan of the government, which is ‘increasing the water quality’. This is due to the fact that the opening in the Brouwersdam will be placed in the upper side of dam, which will only result in a water circulation in the top layer of the lake. Thus, it will not reach the lower, oxygen-less layer. Likewise, Wil Lases points out to the fact that we have to be economical with the scarce fresh water on the planet. He states: “Protecting the fresh water, especially in the delta areas of the Netherlands, is vital”. Thus, according to him, bringing back the tide in the Grevelingen lake will put pressure on: the fresh water supply; the salinization rate and thereby the livelihoods of the inhabitants. He also agrees with Borm&Huijgens about the fact that placing the opening in the Brouwersdam in the upper side of the dam would not lead the ‘refreshing’ of the down layer without the oxygen.

Figure 24. Recreation on and around the Grevelingen Lake. Source: own picture, made on the 9th of May 2018.

38 7.2.5 long-term In every interview, it was apparent that ‘time’ is an important aspect of the impact of the salinization; considering that the sea-level will continue to rise, the impact is likely to increase in the future. Wil Lases states that the impact of the sea-level rise, in combination with the realization of the opening in the Brouwersdam, will increase in the future; the two processes will reinforce each other. That is why Wil Lases speaks about a ‘double’ increase of the social impact on the local farmer communities of the salinization when the government will proceed the opening in the Brouwersdam. On the long term, the local farmers will experience more pressure on the fresh-water supplies and the farmers will feel the need to adjust to more dry seasons and less fresh-water availability. Likewise, Peter van Sante refers to the point that the sea-level rise, on the long-term, will encourage the pressure of the impact of the salinization, which might have effect on the quality of the farmland, subsequently on the agrarian livelihoods. Furthermore, the expected droughts in the future, due to climate change, is also considered as an enforcement of the impact of the salinization in the future. According to all the data sources, periods of droughts, in combination with the increase of salinization due to the opening in the Brouwersdam, will lead to unfavourable impact on the livelihoods of the local communities. First of all, this will result in permanent changes for the livelihoods of the farmers; they will have to adapt new (salt tolerant) crops and new techniques to ensure their effectiveness of farming in this area around the Grevelingen Lake. Secondly, the data indicates that the safety of all the inhabitants of Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree- Overflakke also will be at stake, when opening to Grevelingen lake to the North Sea in combination with the sea-level rise. Hence, the opening in the Brouwersdam will result in a less sustain environment for the local communities in Zeeland, which will put pressure on their livelihoods. Moreover, the results show that the salinization will have impact on the capability of the communities to create a sustainable livelihood (Scooner, 1998). Currently, the salinization of the ground denies the possibility for farmers to produce salt-intolerant crops. This means that they have to adapt salt-tolerant crops to cope with the impact of salinization. Subsequently, to maintain their productivity. Besides this, the salinization puts pressure on the creation of working days for a livelihood (Scooner, 1998). This is due do the fact that the change to other, salt-tolerant crops, doesn’t secure the same, sufficient, amount of working-days to create a livelihood (Scooner, 1998). However, due to the pressure of the sea-level rise and the opening of the Brouwersdam, the impact of the salinization will result in a further decrease of the quality of the farmland. This puts the resilience of the communities to cope with the salinization at stake. Thereby, it puts pressure on the natural source of the agricultural land to maintain productivity (Scooner, 1998). The main findings of the results are analysed in the framework in figure 23. Here, the emerged influence of the time dimensions on the social impact of the livelihoods from this research are included.

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Figure 25. Analysing framework of the main findings. Source: collected data from secondary literature and respondents, 2018.

8.0 Conclusion

To conclude, the striking result about this study is that there is a significant difference about the concerns coming from the farmers and those coming from the water organizations. It became clear that the water organizations are more concerned with the impact of the salinization on the livelihoods of the farmers than the farmers themselves. Moreover, through the surveys of the farmers it stood out that the farmers often referred to the high fertility of the soil in Zeeland, instead of the (negative) impact of the salinization. The two farmers pointed out that they are really thankful with the high fertility coming from the clay soil and that they don’t see the salinization as a threat at all. Likewise, the observations on the experiences of the three farmers on Walcheren, showed that salinization is not considered as a problem at al. The fact that the agricultural circumstances for the farmers always have been like this, the farmers don’t see any danger in the process of salinization. In contrast to the farmers, the water organizations only referred to the negative impact of the salinization on the livelihoods of the farmers. Moreover, some of the water organizations stated that negative impact of the salinization will lead to the tendency of farmers to settle elsewhere. Thus, the remarkable outcome of this thesis – which is interesting for further research – is that most of the concerns about the impact of the salinization of the ground in Zeeland comes from water organizations, not from the farmers

40 themselves. This is an interesting outcome for further political and economic research on the salinization case in Zeeland. As the results show, there are three main findings in this research that are significant for the outcome of this research. All these findings give answer to research question: What is the impact of the salinization in Zeeland due to the sea-level rise, on the livelihoods of the farmers in the region around the Grevelingen Lake? The first main finding concerns the fact that the salinization will have impact on the choice of crops for the farmers. This is due to the fact that salinization denies the possibility for the farmers to produce salt-intolerant crops. The only way to maintain their productivity as a farmer, and thereby maintaining their livelihood, is to produce salt-intolerant crops. As a consequence, this doesn’t secure a sufficient amount of working days for the farmers. The second main finding of this research relates to re-connecting the Grevelingen lake with the North-sea to bring bake the tidal change. This will lead to an increase in the salinization rate, subsequently to another dimension of impact on the livelihoods of the farmers around the Grevelingen Lake. It will result in more pressure on the fresh-water lens, and subsequently on the quality and variation of the crops. Thereby, the increase of the salinization rate will put the resilience of the communities to cope with the impact at stake. The third and final finding of this research is concerned with the impact of the salinization on the livelihoods, on the long term. The combination of the realisation of re-connecting the Grevelingen lake with the North-see and the ongoing sea-level rise in the future, will reinforce pressure on the natural source of the livelihoods of the farmers. As a consequence, it will not secure sufficient productivities to create a vital livelihood for farmers around the Grevelingen lake.

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