Sea-level rise and groundwater salinization in the coastal area of Zeeland A study of the impact of groundwater salinization around the Grevelingen lake on the livelihoods of the farmers. The Brouwersdam, which separates the Grevelingen Lake (left) from the North Sea (right). Source: Own picture, made on the 9th of May 2018. Name: Frida Boone Student number: 11042893 Supervisor: Dr. Joshua K. Maiyo Bachelor thesis, Social Geography Department of Social Science University of Amsterdam June 18, 2018 Abstract This thesis presents a research on the social impact of salinization of the groundwater on the livelihoods of the farmers around the Grevelingen lake. The results of this thesis show that salinization – driven by the sea-level rise – have a negative impact on the livelihoods of the farmers around the Grevelingen Lake. These impacts are translated in: pressure on the fresh-water lens, a decrease of the quality of the soil and a limitation on the possible crops to grow. Al these impacts have direct effect on the livelihoods of the farmers. Moreover, the incentive of the government to bring back the tide in the Grevelingen lake, to stimulate the water quality, would give the sea-level rise more opportunities to reinforce the impact of the salinization. On the long term, the salinization will have a negative impact on the livelihoods of the farmers around the Grevelingen lake, as a result of pressure to maintain the productivity of their farmlands. 2 Table of content 1.0 Introduction p. 4 2.0 Research objectives and goals p. 5 3.0 Theoretical framework p. 6 3.1 Effects on climate change p. 7 3.2 Adaption and mitigation p. 7 4.0 Conceptual framework p. 9 4.1 Climate change p. 9 4.2 Sea-level rise p. 10 4.3 Salinization p. 11 4.4 Livelihood s p. 13 5.0 Research location p. 14 5.1 Zeeland p. 14 5.1.1 Land use p. 14 5.1.2 Population and livelihoods p. 16 5.1.3 Zeeland and the sea p. 18 5.2 The Grevelingen lake p. 21 5.2.1 Topographic location p. 21 5.2.2 Recreation sector p. 22 6.0 Methodology p. 23 6.1 Research design p. 23 6.2 Data collection p. 23 6.3 Data analysis p. 25 7.0 Results p. 26 7.1 Trends in sea-level rise and salinity Zeeland p. 27 7.1.1 Salinity in Zeeland p. 27 7.1.2 Influence soil composition p. 29 7.1.3 Influence tidal change p. 31 7.2 Land use and agrarian livelihoods in Zeeland p. 33 7.2.1 Land use p. 33 7.2.2 Agrarian livelihoods p. 35 7.2.3 Impact on livelihoods p. 36 7.2.4 Tidal change on Grevelingen lake p. 37 7.2.5 Long-term p. 39 8.0 Conclusion p. 40 9.0 References p. 42 3 1.0 Introduction Salinization of soils is a globally occurring process, which has both ecological as social impact (Ramoliya & Pandey, 2003; Rengasamy, 2006; Sanderse, 2016). It leads to salt- effected soils that have impact on agriculture production, the environment and consequently on economic welfare. Salinization occurs in more than 100 countries in the world, all in different dimensions and scales. There is no climate zone in the world where salinization doesn’t occur (Rengasamy, 2006). Climate change and subsequently the sea- level rise – where the saltwater comes from – are the great drivers behind the salinization of the global soil (Herbert et al., 2015). Taking into considering that climate change will increase in the future, due to anthropogenic modifications, salinization is likely to increase in the future (ibid.). Several studies have shown that salinity in especially low-lying countries have disastrous results for agriculture, infrastructure, fresh-water supplies and subsequently for the stability of communities. The research of Mahmuduzzaman et al. (2014) shows that communities in the low-lying areas in Bangladesh are affected in their fresh-water supplies by the intrusion of salt water into the inland soils. This affects the stability of life for a significant part of the population. Whereas the total affected land by salinity in 1973 was 83.3 million hectares, the total affected land in 2009 was 105.6 hectares. This significant increase is due to the fact that Bangladesh is a low-lying country (under sea-level), where salt water intrusion reaches the fresh ground water sooner than in high-lying countries (Mahmuduzzaman et al., 2014). The outcome of this study is in line with a recent research of the Norwegian Institute of Bio-economy Research (NIBIO) in Vietnam, that shows that low-lying coastal areas are more prone to salt-water intrusion as a result of sea-level rise (NIBIO, 2017). According to this study, this is the result of the often-extensive coastlines and many river deltas of low-lying countries (ibid.). As a result of the long-term development as a low-lying deltaic location, the Netherlands has experienced increasing salinization due to sea-level rise in the past. This development in the Netherlands is a result of two phenomena. The first one is a balance between the negative demand and supply of sediments, which has resulted in a retreating trend on the Dutch coastline (Kwadijk et al., 2010). Secondly, it is due to the fact that that 60 percent of the land in the Netherlands is located below sea-level (Kabat et al., 2005). Considering that the process of salinization doesn’t show the same effects everywhere it occurs (Rengasamy, 2006), this is also the case for the Netherland; not every part of the country is affected with salinization. In the province of North- and South-Holland, the farmers don’t have to deal with the process of salinization yet because the sweet-water layer is not yet infiltrated with salt-water (Le Gras, Trouw, 2005). However, in Zeeland – a province along the south coast of the Netherlands – the groundwater system of the coastal area is threatened by salinization (Post, 2004). This is a result of the sea level rise, which started during the Holocene period (ibid.). A well- structured ground water system consists of a spatial distribution of fresh water and saline ground water, where the groundwater is below the seafloor. In the case of the coastal area of Zeeland, the saline water has risen above the traditional level. Due to this, the saline water has put pressure on the fresh water and made his way far inland (Post, 2004). Considering that the salinization of the ground water goes hand in hand with the sea-level rise, the salinization will hold on and will not only affect the ecological state of Zeeland but also the livelihoods and spatial dimension of Zeeland (Raats, 2015). There are several studies that already examined the ecological effects of salinization in Zeeland (De Boer & Radersma, 2011) and effects on the remaining fresh ground-water in coastal areas (Deltares, 2017, Tuinenberg, 2014). However, less attention has been payed to the effects of ground-water salinization on livelihoods in Zeeland due to the ground-water 4 salinization (Sanderse, 2016). For this reason, this research is designed to investigate the social dimension of the salinization of the ground-water in Zeeland. 2.0 Research objective and goals The objective of this research is to create public awareness for the possible impact of sea- level rise on livelihoods on the global scale, through the understanding and analysing of the social and ecological impact of the sea-level rise on the local farmers in Zeeland. This is due to the fact that the global sea-level is rising as a consequence of the climate change – and this will be also the case for the future (Kabat et al., 2005) Moreover, more than one billion people in the world live in low-lying coastal areas and subsequently have to face with the consequences of the sea-level rise (World ocean review, 2010). Research on the consequences of Sea-level rise shows that tens of millions of people are displaced by the sea-level rise in the past century and that economic and ecological systems are damaged (Dasgupta et al., 2008). For this reason, the aim of this research is to find the relation between salinization – as a result of sea-level rise – and the impact of it on the livelihoods of the farmers in Zeeland. The overall aim of this research is to serve as an extension on ecological research that already has been done by several studies on global scale (Dasgupta et al., 2008) and national scale (Kabat et al., 2005; Kadwijk et al., 2010; Post, 2004). Moreover, this thesis builds on a report of the ‘Rijkswaterstaat’ (the ministry of water and infrastructure in the Netherlands) of the Netherlands, that is focused on the economic and hydrologic effects of the water level increase of the Grevelingen Lake, on the agriculture land around the lake (Sanderse, 2016). This report is based on the plan of the government to re-connect the Grevelingen Lake with the sea again, due to water quality interests (Rijkswaterstaat, 2018). However, this plan will affect the rate of salinization in the ground of Zeeland (Sanderse, 2016). Therefore, the plausible impact of this plan will be discussed and included in the data collecting analysis (Sanderse, 2016; Rijkswaterstaat, 2018). There are some boundaries put on this research. First of all, the time set for this research was four months. Due to this limited time, it is not possible to focus on the whole region of Zeeland but just on a small part of it.