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Retail Savills Research Nanjing – July 2020 MARKET IN MINUTES Retail Savills Research Savills team Please contact us for further information RESEARCH James Macdonald Senior Director China Paradise Walk enters the market +8621 6391 6688 james.macdonald@ Both rent and vacancy levels remained relatively stable in Q2/2020. savills.com.cn • Retail sales of consumer goods in Nanjing reached RMB258.2 • Paradise Walk came to the market in Q2/2020, attracting CENTRAL MANAGEMENT billion in May 2020, down 11.2% year-on-year (YoY). significant attention from retailers and customers alike. Jeremy Sun • Paradise Walk launched in Q2/2020 with a retail GFA of General Manager 120,000 sq m, increasing the mid-to high-end retail stock to Nanjing approximately 4.89 million sq m. +8625 5772 0911 jeremy.sun@ savills.com.cn • The citywide shopping mall vacancy rate decreased 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to 5.6% in Q2/2020. “ Some well-known brands Savills plc Savills is a leading global real • Average mid-to high-end shopping mall first-floor rent estate service provider listed on increased 0.5% QoQ to RMB13.6 per sq m per day. managed to weather the the London Stock Exchange. The company established in 1855, has a rich heritage with unrivalled storm and started opening growth. It is a company that leads • Retail, F&B and lifestyle brands were the main demand drivers rather than follows, and now has over 600 offices and associates in Q2/2020. stores before the wider throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East. This report is for general • The average first-floor rent of prime areas (Xinjiekou, market recovery, while informative purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or Confucius Temple and Hunan Road) increased by 0.6% to quoted in part or in whole, nor may significant new supply will it be used as a basis for any RMB22.9 per sq m per day, and the average first-floor rent of contract, prospectus, agreement non-prime areas increased by 0.5% to RMB10.1 per sq m per or other document without prior come onto the market in consent. Whilst every effort has day. been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability 2H/2020.” whatsoever for any direct or • Vacancy rates in prime areas decreased 0.4 of a percentage consequential loss arising from its JAMES MACDONALD, SAVILLS RESEARCH use. The content is strictly point (ppt) QoQ to an average of 4.7%. In non-prime areas, the copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is vacancy rate decreased by 0.2 of a ppt QoQ to 5.9%. prohibited without written permission from Savills Research. savills.com.cn/research 1 Retail ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Hunan Road GRAPH 1: Shopping Mall Supply, 2015 to 1H/2020 Citywide retail sales have been significantly Some projects are undergoing a transformation impacted by the COVID-19 epidemic, period, including Zifeng Mall and The Mall exceeding RMB258.2 billion by the end of May of Splendors (the former Jinmao Plaza). 450,000 2020, down 11.2% YoY. Furthermore, The Mall of Splendors is 400,000 expected to launch in Q3/2020, and it is being SUPPLY AND STOCK positioned as a cultural mall with young people 350,000 Paradise Walk launched in Q2/2020, with as its targeted customers. The vacancy rate in 300,000 a retail GFA of 120,000 sq m. The project the Hunan Road area decreased by 0.9 of a ppt attracted many family consumers because of its QoQ to 7.2%, while rents in the area increased 250,000 first-store economy and tenant-mix targeting by 1.8% QoQ to RMB10.3 per sq m per day. sq m 200,000 families and children’s entertainment. Citywide retail stock rose to 4.89 million sq m Confucius Temple 150,000 with the new project. Theatre Lane is scheduled to launch onto the 100,000 market in 2H/2020. As an experiential mall with many tenants related to the performing 50,000 RETAILERS Retail, F&B and lifestyle retailers were the arts, it is expected to bring more artistic 0 main demand drivers in Q2/2020. Despite stores to the area. The vacancy rate in the area 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1H/2020 the epidemic, some popular domestic remained at 4.4%, and rents stayed stable at Source Savills Research and international brands saw expansion RMB21.0 per sq m per day. opportunities during the quarter. Heytea opened its first Go store in Nanjing in Maoye Xinjiangdong Plaza. New City Mall Phase II will begin construction this year, and it is expected to stimulate the GRAPH 2: Sub-market Vacancy Rates, Q3/2015 to VACANCY RATES AND RENTS vitality of the Xinjiangdong submarket on its Q2/2020 Citywide shopping mall vacancy rates launch. In Q2/2020, the vacancy rate stayed Citywide Xinjiekou Hunan Road decreased by 0.3 of a ppt to 5.6% in Q2/2020. stable at 3.0%, and average first-floor rents in Hexi CBD Confucius Temple Xinjiangdong Vacancy rates in prime areas decreased 0.4 of the area also remained stable at RMB12.4 per 32% a ppt QoQ to 4.7%. In non-prime areas, the sq m per day. 28% vacancy rate decreased by 0.2 of a ppt QoQ to 5.9%. Hexi CBD 24% The vacancy rate in Hexi CBD stayed stable at 20% The average first-floor mall rent saw a minor 7.6%, and the average rent in the area stayed 16% decrease of 0.5% QoQ to RMB13.6 per sq m flat QoQ at RMB8.3 per sq m per day. per day in Q2/2020. In prime retail areas, rents 12% increased by 0.6% RMB22.9 per sq m per day. MARKET OUTLOOK 8% Non-prime area average rent increased by 0.5% Some projects have postponed their launch time due to COVID-19, so the market only 4% to RMB10.1 per sq m per day during Q2/2020. welcomed one project in 1H/2020. However, 0% Xinjiekou many projects are expected to enter the market Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Although no new projects entered the Xinjiekou in 2H/2020, including Jiangbei Paradise Walk 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 market, Deji Plaza Phase III’s plan to build a and Himalayas Centre. These high-profile Source Savills Research skybridge and an underground retail space has projects, mostly located in non-prime areas and helped boost the project’s profile. In Q2/2020, built by well-known developers, will strengthen the vacancy rate decreased by 0.5 of a ppt QoQ their respective area’s appeal. to 2.7%, while average first-floor rent remained the city’s highest at RMB33.9 per sq m per day. GRAPH 3: Submarket Rental Indices, Q3/2015 to Q2/2020 Citywide Xinjiekou Hunan Road Hexi CBD Confucius Temple Xinjiangdong TABLE 1: Selected Leasing Transactions In Q2/2020 270 250 230 TENANT CATEGORY PROJECT AREA 210 190 Spyder Retail Deji Plaza Xinjiekou 170 150 SWOFCARE Retail Deji Plaza Xinjiekou Q2/2011=100 130 110 Heytea Go F&B Maoye Plaza Confucius Temple 90 70 Source Savills Research Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source Savills Research savills.com.cn/research 2.
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