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Covid-19 Pandemic: Impact of Restriction Measures in West Africa

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Covid-19 Pandemic: Impact of Restriction Measures in West Africa Covid -19 Pandemic: Impact of restriction measures In West Africa 1 Acknowledgement This report is the result of close collaboration between the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Commission, the World Food Programme (WFP), United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) and the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) through its Sub-Regional Office for West Africa. It was developed under the leadership of the ECOWAS Commissioner in charge of Economic Policy and Research, Dr. Kofi Konadu Apraku, the Regional Director of WFP, Mr. Chris Nikoi and the Director of the ECA Sub-regional Office for West Africa, Ms. Ngone Diop. The report was prepared under the supervision and technical coordination of Dr. Simeon Koffi (ECOWAS), Dr. Issa Sanogo (CERFAM), OlloSib (WFP) and Dr. Amadou Diouf (ECA). It benefited from the eminent contributions of Alain Sy Traore (ECOWAS), Marie Ndiaye (WFP), Atsuvi Gamli (WFP), Mariam Katile (WFP), Abdoulaye Ndiaye (WFP), Katrina Frappier (WFP), Dr. Babou Sogue (ECOWAS) and Dr. Silvère Y. Konan (ECA). The online survey component of the report was implemented under the technical coordination of WFP, and supported by WFP Country Office teams and partners from ECOWAS and the ECA. Para Hunzai should also be thanked for logistical support in editing, translating and printing the report. For more information, please contact: Dr. Siméon Koffi, Head of Division, Research and Development, ECOWAS Commission ([email protected]). Dr. Issa Sanogo, CERFAM Director ([email protected]). Ollo Sib, Senior Regional Advisor, Research Assessment and Monitoring, WFP ([email protected]). Dr. Amadou Diouf, CEA/BSR-AO ([email protected]). Table of content 1. Executive summary _______________________________________ 1 2. Introduction ____________________________________________ 6 3. Situation of the pandemic and general measures ________________ 9 Epidemiological situation 10 National and regional responses 12 4. Crisis in a context of vulnerability and socio- economic fragility ___ 14 Economic vulnerability factors 15 Limited fiscal space 15 Low diversification of export products and external partners 18 Large informal economy in the face of restriction measures 20 Low human development and social protection challenge 21 Low level of investment in agriculture 23 Low output of agricultural production and food insecurity 24 Good governance and security challenge 30 5. Overall socio-economic impact of the pandemic ________________ 32 Economic impact 33 Sluggish economic growth 33 Rising inflation 35 Rising budget deficit 35 Rising public debt 36 Declining foreign trade 36 A deteriorating current account, with a drop in foreign trade 36 Migrants’ remittances 39 Impact on social development 39 Impact on education 39 Impact on health 40 Other social effects (free movement, gender, informal employment) 41 6. Evidence from the household online survey ___________________ 42 Multidimensional analysis 43 Measures that have the greatest impact on livelihoods 43 Severely hampered market access 44 Availability of food and non-food products 44 Rising prices and loss of income and purchasing power 45 Strong disruption of livelihoods, in the informal sector and for women 45 Decline in food stocks 46 Increased household concerns about food shortage, including female- headed households 46 Household coping strategies facing the risk of food shortage 47 Consequences of the extension of restriction measures 48 Risks of social tensions 49 Expectations of the population in terms of assistance 50 Impact of COVID 19: an evaluation through multiple data analysis 50 Socio-economic impact of mitigation measures: classification and characterization of countries 57 Characterization of countries 59 Relatively limited availability of fresh produce 59 Acceptable availability of basic food items 60 7. Conclusion and recommendations __________________________ 62 An unfavourable macroeconomic situation 63 Strong repercussions on households 63 Projected real COVID-19 cases in the region 64 Recommended policy actions 65 Annexes _________________________________________________ 67 Annex 1: Methodological Approaches: Use of Survey Data 68 Annex 2: Results Tables 70 Annex 3: Multivariate Analysis Methodology 71 Annex 4: Main Sources of Household Income by Gender of Head of Household and Place of Residence 75 Annex 5: Socio-economic categories affected 76 Annex 6: Some strategies adopted, policy measures taken and support 77 Figures and Tables Figure 1: Total Covid-19 tests per 1,000 inhabitants, August 6, 2020 ______________________ 11 Figure 2: Tax Revenue/Total Revenue, Average for 2015-2019 ___________________________ 16 Figure 3: Tax Revenue as a Proportion of GDP, Average for 2015-2019 _____________________ 16 Figure 4: Average share of the two main components of tax revenues between 2015 and 2019 __ 16 Figure 5: Average Share of Grants in Total Government Revenues from 2015 to 2019 _________ 16 Figure 6: Proportion of ECOWAS' main exports in 2019 (%) _____________________________ 18 Figure 7: Proportion of ECOWAS main imports in 2019 (%) ______________________________ 18 Figure 8: Share of Vulnerable Employment in Total Employment in 2019 ___________________ 20 Figure 9: Corruption control indicators in ECOWAS countries in 2018 ______________________ 31 Figure 10: Political stability and violence and terrorism in ECOWAS in 2018 _________________ 31 Figure 11: ECOWAS growth in in Q1 2020 (%) ________________________________________ 33 Figure 12: Growth in key sectors in Q1 2020 (%) ______________________________________ 33 Figure 13: Growth in value added in mining, manufacturing and construction ________________ 34 Figure 14: Growth of the added value of trade and transport _____________________________ 34 Figure 15: Economic growth of member states, 2019-2020 (%) __________________________ 34 Figure 16: Price index of exported and imported products (monthly variation in %) ___________ 37 Figure 17: Oil prices ____________________________________________________________ 37 Figure 18: Food prices ___________________________________________________________ 37 Figure 19: Gold prices ___________________________________________________________ 37 Figure 20: Cotton and rubber prices ________________________________________________ 37 Figure 21: Food prices (monthly variation in %) _______________________________________ 38 Figure 22: ECOWAS foreign trade (quarterly variation in %) _____________________________ 38 Figure 23: Current health expenditure in ECOWAS countries as a proportion of the GDP in 2017 _ 40 Figure 24: Ratio of the number of doctors per 1000 inhabitants in ECOWAS countries _________ 41 Figure 25: Impact of restriction measures on household livelihoods ________________________ 43 Figure 26: Difficulties of market access in rural areas ___________________________________ 44 Figure 27: Difficulties of market access in rural areas ___________________________________ 44 Figure 28: Main reasons for inaccessibility to markets in urban and rural areas _______________ 44 Figure 29: Perceived impact of COVID-19 on household income sources ____________________ 45 Figure 30: Perceived impact of COVID-19 on household income sources by livelihood groups ____ 45 Figure 31: Change in revenues by main sources _______________________________________ 46 Figure 32: Did the household worry about not having enough food to eat ___________________ 47 Figure 33: Coping strategies adopted in the last week by sex and status of the head of household 48 Figure 34: Regularly traveling beyond the city to work __________________________________ 48 Figure 35: Change in travel for work or other reasons due to COVID-19 ____________________ 49 Figure 36: Perception of tensions and violence ________________________________________ 50 Figure 37: Representation of the active and illustrative modality cloud in the factorial design (1;2) 52 Figure 38: Representation of the active and illustrative modality cloud in the factorial design (1;3) 52 Figure 39: Representation of the active and illustrative modality cloud in the factorial design (1;2) 53 Figure 40: Impact of COVID-19 on prices by group ____________________________________ 54 Figure 41: Difficulties in carrying out activities _______________________________________ 54 Figure 42: Impact of measures on sources of income ___________________________________ 55 Figure 43: Risks of tension _______________________________________________________ 56 Figure 44: Grouping of countries according to the variables that distinguish them ____________ 58 Figure 45: Availability of basic food products _________________________________________ 60 Figure 46: Household food situation ________________________________________________ 61 Table 1: Estimated number of potential cases for a group of countries, based on the South Africa's test rate, regarding the average positivity rate by country between June and July 2020 ________________________________________________________________________ 11 Table 2: Main ECOWAS clients ____________________________________________________ 19 Table 3: Main suppliers to ECOWAS in 2019 __________________________________________ 19 Table 4: Human development indicators and its components for ECOWAS countries in 2019 ____ 22 Table 5: Proportion of retired people receiving a pension in ECOWAS countries _______________ 22 Table 6: Share of agriculture in total public expenditure ________________________________ 23 Table 7: The productivity of the land in value $ USD/ha in the medium and long term, and global
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