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Lanzhou-Chongqing Railway Project Financed by the Asian Development Bank

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Lanzhou-Chongqing Railway Project Financed by the Asian Development Bank Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report Project Number: PPTA 4839-PRC December 2007 People’s Republic of China: Lanzhou-Chongqing Railway Project Financed by the Asian Development Bank MAIN REPORT Prepared by TERA International Group, Inc. Sterling, Virginia, United States of America In association with TERA Beijing Consulting Co. Ltd., Beijing, China and First Survey and Design Institute, Xi’an, China For: Ministry of Railways This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design. Asian Development Bank CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as of November 2007) Currency Unit – yuan (CNY) CNY1.00 = $0.1333 $1.00 = CNY 7.5 The exchange rate of the yuan is determined under a floating exchange rate system. In this report, the rate used is the rate prevailing at the above date. ABBREVIATIONS AAOV average annual output value ACWF All China Women’s Federation AOLS assets operation liability system ATC automatic train control ADB Asian Development Bank CCB China Construction Bank CCEC China Civil Engineering Corporation CDB China Development Bank CLR Chongqing-Lichuan Railway CO2 carbon dioxide Contract contract for PPTA consulting services CPI consumer price index CR China Railway CR-TEM CR Transport Evaluation Model of TERA CRCC China Rail Communications Co. Ltd. CRCI China Railway Construction Investment Company CRCTC China Railway Container Transport Company CREC China Railway Engineering Corporation CRMS customer relations management system CRMSC China Rail Materials and Supplies Co. Ltd. CRTSC China Railway Telecom and Signaling Corporation CSY China Statistical Yearbook CWR continuous welded rails DECO diversified economy companies DFR draft final report EA executing agency ECS economic contract system EIA environmental impact assessment EIP information program-website of enterprise EIRR economic internal rate of return EMM economic marketing management system EMP environmental management plan EMU electric multiple unit ERP economic resources programming system RCF Railway Construction Fund FCTIC Foreign Capital and Technical Import Center FIRR financial internal rate of return FR final report FRA Federal Railroad Administration FYP five year plan GDP gross domestic product Ha hectare HIV/AIDS human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency IA implementing agency ICB international competitive bidding IDMIS integrated dispatching management information system IRR internal rate of return IS international shopping JBIC Japan Bank for International Cooperation JVC joint venture company Km kilometer LCR Lanzhou-Chongqing Railway LIBOR London interbank offered rate LOC lines of communication LORIC China Railway Locomotive and Rolling Stock Industry Corporation LPG leading preparatory group M2 square meter MOR Ministry of Railways (PRC) Mu unit of land measurement; 15 mu=1 ha NAO National Audit Office (PRC) NDRC National Development and Reform Commission (PRC) NPV net present value NTSB National Transportation Safety Board (United States) OAS office automation system O-D origin-destination OHL overhead lines PFS preliminary feasibility PIA project impact area PKM passenger kilometer PMIS passenger-ticket management information system PPTA project preparation technical assistance PRS project resource statement PSA poverty and social analysis PSIS passenger service information system PSO public service obligations PRC People’s Republic of China RA railway administration RIS railway investment strategy model (MOR) RIS-TAM railway investment study—traffic assignment model RP resettlement plan RSO Railway Support Office SARS severe acute respiratory syndrome SASAC State Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission SCE standard coal equivalent SDAP social development action plan SEIA summary environmental impact assessment SEPA State Environmental Protection Administration (PRC) SERF shadow exchange rate factor SIA social impact assessment SOE state-owned enterprise SP Southern Pacific Railroad (United States) SPRSS summary poverty reduction and social strategy STI socially transmitted infection Sub-RA railway sub-administration TA technical assistance TERA TERA International Group, Inc. TEU twenty-foot equivalent unit (for containers) TKM freight ton kilometer TMIS transportation management information system TOR terms of reference TSDI Third Survey and Design Institute (Tianjin) TU traffic unit TVE town and village enterprise TZR Taiyuan Zhongwei Railway UIC Union Internationale Des Chemins De Fer (France) UP Union Pacific Railroad (United States) US United States of America VR Variation Request WACC weighted average cost of capital WTO World Trade Organization ZXR Zhengzhou Xi’an Railway NOTES (i) The fiscal year (FY) of the Government and its agencies ends on 31 December. FY before a calendar year denotes the year in which the fiscal year ends, e.g., FY2007 ends on 31 December 2007. (ii) In this report, “$” refers to US dollars. CONTENTS I. BACKGROUND ......................................................................................................................1 A. STUDY OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE.......................................................................................1 B. DESCRIPTION OF THE PROJECT........................................................................................1 C. OVERVIEW OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR........................................................................4 D. RAILWAY SECTOR.................................................................................................................9 E. EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE TO THE RAILWAY SECTOR......................................................13 II. PROJECT FRAMEWORK AND RATIONALE .......................................................................13 A. DESCRIPTION OF THE PROJECT......................................................................................13 B. PROJECT RATIONALE ........................................................................................................14 C. DESIGN AND MONITORING FRAMEWORK.......................................................................16 III. TRAFFIC FORECASTS ........................................................................................................17 A. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................17 B. APPROACH TO TRAFFIC FORECASTING .........................................................................21 C. FREIGHT TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS....................................................................................22 D. PASSENGER TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS .............................................................................26 IV. TECHNICAL CHARACTERISTICS .......................................................................................28 A. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................28 B. TECHNICAL CHARACTERISTICS .......................................................................................30 C. TRAIN OPERATIONS AND CAPACITY CONSIDERATIONS...............................................43 D. ASSOCIATED FACILITIES ...................................................................................................44 E. COST ESTIMATING APPROACH.........................................................................................44 F. IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS................................................................................45 V. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT ......................................................................................50 A. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................50 B. DESCRIPTION OF THE PROJECT......................................................................................50 C. ALTERNATIVES....................................................................................................................52 D. ANTICIPATED ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS AND MITIGATION MEASURES ...................53 E. PUBLIC CONSULTATION AND INFORMATION DISCLOSURE ..........................................55 F. ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT PLAN ..........................................................................55 VI. POVERTY AND SOCIAL ANALYSIS.....................................................................................59 A. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................59 B. MAIN CHARACTERISTICS OF THE PROJECT IMPACT AREA..........................................59 C. POVERTY ANALYSIS AND VULNERABLE GROUPS .........................................................61 D. THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF LCR ON POVERTY .............................................................70 E. STAKEHOLDER PROCESS AND MONITORING AND EVALUATION.................................73 VII. RESETTLEMENT .................................................................................................................73 VIII. INSTITUTIONAL CONSIDERATIONS ..................................................................................76 A. OVERVIEW OF RAILWAY REFORMS .................................................................................76 B. GOVERNMENT’S PROGRAM OF ECONOMIC REFORM ..................................................77
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