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STRATEGIC LATENCY UNLEASHED THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY IN A REVISIONIST GLOBAL ORDER AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES EDITED BY ZACHARY S. DAVIS, FRANK GAC, CHRISTOPHER RAGER, PHILIP REINER, AND JENNIFER SNOW CENTER FOR GLOBAL SECURITY RESEARCH This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in part under Contract W-7405-Eng-48 and in part under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. The views and opinions of the author expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC. ISBN-978-1-952565-07-6 LCCN-2021901137 LLNL-BOOK-818513 TID-59693 To download the ebook: See cgsr.llnl.gov STRATEGIC LATENCY UNLEASHED THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY IN A REVISIONIST GLOBAL ORDER AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES EDITED BY ZACHARY S. DAVIS, FRANK GAC, CHRISTOPHER RAGER, PHILIP REINER, AND JENNIFER SNOW Center for Global Security Research Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory January 2021 STRATEGIC LATENCY UNLEASHED | 1 Table of Contents EDITOR'S NOTE . 1 FOREWORD . 2 DEDICATION . 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . 5 INTRODUCTION Latency Unleashed: What It Means for Special Operations Forces Zachary S. Davis, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Research Professor, Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) . 8 SECTION 1 GEOPOLITICS OF STRATEGIC LATENCY FOR SOF: CONTEXT IS EVERYTHING Winning and Losing in Counterproliferation Zachary Davis, LLNL/NPS, and Michael Greene, Naval Special Warfare Command (ret.) . 15 The Role of Special Operations Forces in Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Brendan Melley, Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction, National Defense University (NDU) . 22 Identity and Virtual Nations: Implications of Digital Citizenship and Developing Global Autonomous Communities for Special Operations Forces Jennifer J. Snow, AFWERX/CTO . 34 Special Forces and Strategic Deterrence Brad Roberts, LLNL, Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) . 51 Quantum Corps: Consequence and Superiority in the Theater of Applied Imagination Marshall M. Monroe, Marshall Monroe MAGIC . 61 Russia’s Special Purpose Forces: A Strategic Weapon Glenn Chafetz, Ridgeline; Michael Nacht, University of California, Berkeley; and Jonathan Fagins, US Army Special Operations Command (USASOC) . 82 2 | DAVIS, GAC, RAGER, REINER & SNOW Sharp Swords of the Future Battlefield: The Chinese Military’s Special Forces and Psychological Operations Elsa Kania, Center for a New American Security, and Peter Wood, Bluepath Labs . 94 SECTION 2 BIOLOGY AND THE BODY POLITIC: MESSING WITH MOTHER NATURE What COVID-19 and China’s Grand Strategy May Teach about a History of the Future James Giordano, Georgetown University, and L. R. Bremseth USN SEAL (ret.) . 109 Cyborg Soldier 2050: Human-Machine Fusion and Its Implications Peter Emanuel, Army Futures Command, and Diane DiEullius, Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction, NDU . 121 Contemporary Global Food Systems as Contested Space: Implications for Special Operations Forces Molly Jahn, University of Wisconsin–Madison; David A. Bray, Atlantic Council GeoTech Center and GeoTech Commission; Joseph Byrum, Principal Financial Group; LTG (ret.) Edward Cardon; Tom Creely, US Naval War College; Colonel Michael S. Gremillion, US Air Force; Aaron M. Kelly, Jahn Research Group; Budhikka “Jay ” Jayamaha, United States Air Force Academy; Megan Konar, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; Seth C. Murray, Texas A&M University; Tony Nguy-Robertson, National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency; William L. Oemichen, Jahn Research Group and University of Wisconsin–Madison; Michael J. Puma, Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University; Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Hofstra University; Matthew A. Rose, General Services Administration’s Centers of Excellence; Gregory F. Treverton, Center for Strategic and International Studies and University of Southern California . 148 As the Helix Turns: How New Biology, Biometrics, and DNA Analysis May Forever Prevent Anonymity Brad Hart and Brian Souza, LLNL. 159 STRATEGIC LATENCY UNLEASHED | 3 Table of Contents SECTION 3 THE MATERIALS WORLD: POSSIBLE SOF APPLICATIONS Additive Adversaries: Enabling and Supporting the Warfighter with Additive Manufacturing Lawrence E. Bronisz and Dominic S. Peterson, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) . 167 Nanotechnology and SOF: Is Smaller Really Better? P. Randall Schunk, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). 182 The Disruptive Potential of Advanced Energetics Bryce C. Tappan and Patrick R. Bowden, LANL . 193 Metamaterials: How Close Are We to a Klingon Cloaking Device or Harry Potter Invisibility Cloak? Michael T. Valley, SNL . 209 Armor of the Future: Spider Webs, Buckyballs, Nanotubes, and Beyond S. Robert Skaggs and Frank D. Gac (ret.), LANL . 225 Emerging Trends in Flexible Electronics: Opportunities and Challenges for a Clandestine Community Brian T. Holmes and Michael W. David, National Intelligence University . 241 Adapting SOCOM to an Electrified World Karen Swider-Lyons, US Naval Research Laboratory; Joshua Lamb, SNL; and Yet-Ming Chiang, Massachussetts Institute of Technology . 253 SECTION 4 GLOBAL BUSINESS AND THE ROLE OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR IN NATIONAL SECURITY: IMPLICATIONS FOR SOF Cryptocurrency: Will the Digitization of Currency Allow Malign Actors to Achieve Strategic Effects? Sara Dudley, USASOC . 269 4 | DAVIS, GAC, RAGER, REINER & SNOW Blockchain and the Battlefield Girish Nandakumar, Old Dominion University, and Jon Cederquist, Clearspeed . 283 The Significance of 5G for Special Operations of the Future Toby Redshaw, Verizon. 293 On Being Stretch Armstrong: Innovating Successfully inside Bureaucratic Organizations Brad Chedister and Tambrein Bates, SOFWERX, and Jennifer J. Snow, AFWERX/CTO . 305 Special Operations Forces as a Rapid Prototyping Laboratory Leo Blanken, NPS, and Phillip Swintek, USASOC . 322 SECTION 5 DIGITAL DOMAINS: THE SOF ROLE Special Operations Forces and Cyber-Enabled Influence Operations Herb Lin, Stanford University, and Trisha Wyman, USASOC. 333 The New COIN of the Realm: The Future of Technology and Insurgency Peter Singer, New America Foundation . 352 “Cyber FID” : The Role of Cyber in Foreign Internal Defense Philip Reiner, Institute for Security and Technology, and Whitney Kassel, Morgan Stanley . 370 Open Minds, Open Societies, and Hybrid Conflict David Bray and Vint Cerf, People-Centered Internet Coalition. 384 Artificial Intelligence: Risks and Opportunities for SOF Paul Scharre, Center for a New American Security. 398 Weaponized Information: Influence and Deception in the Age of Social Media Pablo Breuer, Donovan Group; David Perlman, Copsycon; and Sara-Jayne Terp, Bodacea Light Industries . 410 STRATEGIC LATENCY UNLEASHED | 5 Table of Contents SECTION 6 OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR MULTIDOMAIN WARFARE Irregular as the New Normal: How Technology Will Change the Prevalence and Character of Irregular Warfare Richard A. K. Lum, Future Vision, and Edwin Churchill, Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) . 447 Intelligence for Special Operations Forces John Tullius, NPS. 457 Systems of Systems: Coping with Pervasive Technology in Operating Areas Mark W. Maier, Aerospace Corporation, and Edwin Churchill, JSOC. 465 The Whole World Is Watching: Special Operations in a Ubiquitous Surveillance Environment George duMais, FTS International. 479 The Growing Importance of Subterranean Warfare and the Integration of General Purpose Forces in Subterranean Operations Michael Alexander, USASOC. 486 Chaos and Constraint: Special Operations and “The Convergence” Dan Leaf, USASOC . 492 Few Weapons Are as Deadly as a Good Clock: Military Implications of 1:10^19 PNT Robert G. Kennedy III, Tetra Tech . 501 Megacities and Special Operations Forces Margarita Konaev, Center for Security and Emerging Technology, Georgetown University . 522 FINAL THOUGHTS ON LATENCY UNLEASHED What Have We Learned? Strategic Latency and the Future of Special Operations Forces Zachary Davis, LLNL/NPS . 536 6 | DAVIS, GAC, RAGER, REINER & SNOW Editor’s Note Zachary S. Davis The Timing of This Manuscript We started this project in 2018. It took two years to write and publish the chapters. Now it’s 2021, and things have changed. The irony is not lost on us that while we were writing, the world kept spinning, and many of the things we predicted have since come to pass. Cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns have occurred as predicted, with devastating results. The global pandemic unfolded as some predicted. The global order is in further disarray. The scholars in this volume picked up on issues that were fresh and new when we started, and new issues have emerged since. It seems that, in some cases, the pace of events has compromised our ability to develop careful, reasoned, and thoughtful insights, at least in traditional forms of scholarship. These days, two years is a long time. With this in mind, we created a digital multimedia version of the book in a format called a Mixonium, which includes additional materials for each chapter and can be updated by the authors. You can find the Mixonium for this book here: https://www. mixonium.com/#/public_clubs/599 (password: Beyond;20). Technology channels people’s motives and intentions at whatever pace of innovation they desire. The good news is that US SOF are also built for rapid adaptation, as noted by Hondo Geurts in his Foreword. And we take some comfort in the solutions we have proposed to accompany our warnings. But we need to take action
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