WP 7, Activity 2: Development of Adaptation Measures / Spatial Change Management in Model Regions
Climate change and spatial development in the Municipality of Koper: issues and potential responses
Final report
Mojca Golobič, Andrej Gulič, Lučka Kajfež Bogataj, Luka Mladenovič, Sergeja Praper Urban Planning Institute of RS
Ljubljana, March 2008
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Table of Contents
1. Introduction & Methods ...... 7 1.1 Background of the model region study ...... 7 1.2 Structure and content of the report ...... 9 2. Description of Model Region ...... 10 2.1 Basic Information and Data ...... 10 2.1.1 Position of the Municipality of Koper within the wider region and Slovenia ...... 10 2.1.2 Position of the Municipality of Koper within the costal subregion ...... 11 2.1.3 Municipality of Koper ...... 12 2.1.4 Main conclusions ...... 13 2.2 Spatial development in the Municipality of Koper and in the coastal subregion ...... 14 2.2.1 Spatial characteristics of the coastal subregion ...... 14 2.2.2 Spatial characteristics of the Municipality of Koper ...... 16 3. Climate Change and Corresponding Impacts ...... 18 3.1 Development in the 20th Century and Observed Trends in Slovenia and the Obalno-kraška region...... 18 3.1.1 Temperature ...... 18 3.1.2 Precipitation ...... 22 3.1.3 Trends in other climate variables ...... 24 3.1.4 Impacts of trends in climate variables ...... 24 3.2 Projected climate changes and impacts for Slovenia and the Obalno-kraška region ...... 28 3.2.1 Climate change in Slovenia and the Obalno-kraška region until end of 21st century ....28 3.2.2 Impacts of climate change in Slovenia and the Obalno-kraška region until end of 21st century...... 31 3.3 Impacts of sea level rise on spatial development of the coastal subregion and the Municipality of Koper ...... 35 3.3.1 Basic premises and working method ...... 35 3.3.2 Predicted consequences of sea level rise on spatial development of the coastal subregion ...... 37 3.3.3 Predicted consequences of sea level rise on the Municipality of Koper ...... 45 3.3.4 Conclusion ...... 51 4. Current Adaptation Strategies and Measures ...... 52 4.1 Assessment of current Strategies and Measures ...... 52 4.1.1 Current strategies and measures at the national level ...... 52 4.1.2 Assessment of current strategies and measures at the regional level ...... 55 4.1.3 Assessment of current strategies and measures at the local level ...... 55 4.2 Conclusions ...... 58
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5. Recommendations for Future Adaptation Strategies and Measures ...... 59 5.1 Climate change adaptation options in coastal urban areas ...... 59 5.1.1 Future trends of vulnerability to climate change ...... 59 5.1.2 Options for response ...... 61 5.1.3 Spatial planning response options to sea level rise ...... 63 5.2 Climate change adaptation options for the coastal subregion and Municipality of Koper .....66 5.2.1 Introduction ...... 66 5.2.2 Practical policy recommendations for future adaptation strategies and measures ...... 66 5.2.3 Practical specific recommendations for future adaptation strategies and measures ...... 67 6. REFERENCES ...... 74 17. Geografski inštitut ZRC SAZU, (1996, 1997): Slovenija. Pokrajine in ljudje. Ljubljana ...... 75 21. Istrabenz, http://www.istrabenz.si (17.10.2007) ...... 75 24. Luka Koper, http://www.luka-kp.si (17.10.2007) ...... 75 28. Municipality of Koper, http://www.koper.si (9-10.10.2007) ...... 75 29. Municipality of Izola, http://www.izola.si (17.10.2007) ...... 75 30. Municipality of Piran, http://www.piran.si (17.10.2007) ...... 75 35. Pečar, J. (2006): Regije 2006 – Izbrani socioekonomski dejavniki po regijah. Delovni zvezek 15/2006. Ljubljana...... 76 44. Statistični urad Republike Slovenije. (2006): Statistical Yearbook. Ljubljana ...... 76
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List of Tables
Table 1: Size and population in the Slovenian coastal municipalities in 2005. Table 2: Network of urban centres in the coastal subregion. Table 3: Trends in average seasonal and annual air temperature (in °C/30 years) in Slovenia for the period 1971- 2000. Table 4: Trends in average annual air temperature (in °C/50 years) and relative change in precipitation (in %/50 years) in Slovenia for the period 1951- 2000. Table 5: Surface of flood areas during extreme and yearly sea floods (modified after Kolega (2006)). Table 6: Types of potential responses of different actors.
List of Figures
Figure 1: Municipality of Koper and its subregion Figure 2: Programmatic and spatial definition of development projects and conflict areas in the coastal region, Source: University of Ljubljana: Detailed development plan of the coastal region, 2004. Figure 3: Municipality of Koper, Source: Surveying and Mapping Authority of the Republic of Slovenia. Figure 4: Mean annual air temperature in Slovenia during a) 1971-1980 (top left), b) 1981-1990 (top right) and c) 1991-2000 (middle) Figure 5: Trends in average annual air temperature in Slovenia for the period 1971- 2000. Figure 6: Statistically significant trends in seasonal amounts of precipitation during 1971-2005: autumn (top left), winter top right, spring (bottom left) and summer (bottom right) (red - increase, blue - decrease, yellow - no change). Figure 7: Spatial distribution of statistically significant trends in storm frequency during May- September (red - increase, blue - decrease, yellow - no change). Figure 8: Spatial distribution of statistically significant trends in hail frequency during May- September. Figure 9: Observed sea level rise in the Koper Bay, Slovenia. Figure 10: Signal in 2m-Temperature and precipitation 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990, A2 scenario for Alpine region of Slovenia (modified from Jacob (2006). Figure 11: Signal in 2m-Temperature and precipitation 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990, A2 scenario for the Mediterranean region in Slovenia (modified from Jacob (2006). Figure 12: Simulated temperature rise (ΔT in °C) in Ljubljana, Novo mesto, Murska Sobota, Rateče and Bilje (left) and relative change in precipitation amount (ΔP/P in %) at same locations (right) till year 2100.
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Figure 13: Projected global average sea level rise under the range of the six SRES scenarios (IPCC, 2001) and a calibrated global climate/ocean model. Figure 14: Sea level rise as observed (from Church and White 2006) shown in red up to the year 2001, together with the IPCC (2001) scenarios for 1990-2100. Figure 15: Comparison of the 2001 IPCC sea-level scenarios (starting in 1990) and observed data: the Church and White (2006) data based primarily on tide gauges (annual, red) and the satellite altimeter data (updated from Cazenave and Nerem 2004, 3-month data spacing, blue, up to mid-2006) are shown with their trend lines. Note that the observed sea level rise tends to follow the uppermost dashed line of the IPCC scenarios. Figure 16: Map of the storm surge in the Upper Adriatic Sea for a meteo-marine event with 100 year return period (after Yu et al. 1998). Figure 17: Flooded areas of the coastal subregion in scenario of 1 meter sea level rise. Figure 18: Flooded areas on the Slovenian coast during yearly and extreme floods, section of map representing Piran and surroundings, Source: Nataša Kolega, Slovenian coast sea flood risk, 2006 Figure 19: Possible consequences of 1 m sea level rise on the central (historical) part of the town of Piran. Figure 20: Possible consequences of 1 m sea level rise on the central (historical) part of the town of Izola. Figure 21: Flooded areas of coastal sub-region in scenario of 2 meter sea level rise. Figure 22: Possible consequences of 2 m sea level rise on the central (historical) part of the town of Piran. Figure 23: Possible consequences of 2 m sea level rise on the central (historical) part of the town of Izola. Figure 24: Land ownership of flood endangered areas in 1 and 2 meter sea level change scenario. Figure 25: Flooded areas of Municipality of Koper in scenario of 1 meter sea level rise Figure 26: Possible consequences of 1 m sea level rise on the central (historical) part of the town of Koper and on the port of Koper. Figure 27: Additional flooded areas of Municipality of Koper in scenario of 2 meter sea level rise Figure 28: Possible consequences of 2 m sea level rise on the central (historical) part of the town of Koper and on the port of Koper. Figure 29: Municipality of Koper planned land use and flood risk areas, source: Municipality of Koper, Slovenia. Figure 30: Flooding areas in the Municipality of Koper. Figure 31: Flooding areas in the Municipality of Koper. Figure 32: Responses to sea level rise for developed barrier islands. Figure 33: The IPCC's seven steps of climate impact assessment. Figure 34: Pellestrina village near Venice with its sea defence wall (Murazzo) on the right. Figure 35: View on Pellestrina and its sea wall from the top of the wall. Figure 36: View on Pellestrina and its sea wall from the below of the wall.
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Figure 37: View on Grado (Gradež) near Trieste and its sea wall from the top of the wall which is at the same time a promenade. Figure 38: View on Grado (Gradež) near Trieste and its sea wall (promenade) from below of the wall. Figure 39: Potential realignment of coastal defences and near shore morphological modifications in the town of Koper. Figure 40: Potential realignment of coastal defences and near shore morphological modifications in the town of Izola. Figure 41: Potential realignment of coastal defences and near shore morphological modifications in the town of Piran.
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1. INTRODUCTION & METHODS
1.1 Background of the model region study The design of the model region study performed by UIRS has been informed by two basic premises: Ö To take due consideration of the concept agreed between WP 7 partners at the first WP 7 meeting (21 March 2006); and Ö To follow a strictly participative approach, i.e. to agree the exact content of the study with representatives of the model region, to include stakeholders from the model region in activities, and to produce results which would be directly useful for the model region.
Initial contacts were established in summer 2006 with representatives of municipalities of Koper and Ljubljana, departments of urbanism respectively spatial planning and environment. An interest was expressed from both municipalities to participate as model regions in the project. In view of the fact, that both municipalities were in the process of preparing their Spatial Development Strategies, the objective of the study was defined in the following way: Ö To prepare a climate change adaptation related input for the new Municipal Spatial Development Strategy. Ö To contribute to higher awareness regarding climate change in the municipality.
General model region study programme was thus defined as follows:
Activities and work steps Methods 1 Reaching AGREEMENT with representatives of the Contacts with representatives of the municipality on model region study content and municipality proceeding 2 ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT of impacts of climate Literature review change on spatial development and selected economic Expert interviews sectors – historic overview Background study on general aspects of climate change in the municipality 3 Elaboration of SCENARIOS 2030 – agreement on the Literature review method for constructing scenarios (number, structure Expert interview etc.), building scenarios Internal workshop Workshop in the model region to inform the scenario building process 4 ADAPTATION MEASURES for the model region – Literature review identification and assessment of existing measures, Expert interviews potential improvements and new instruments and Analysis and assessment following an measures, elaboration of recommendations for the model agreed framework region Workshop in the model region to inform
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the recommendation building process 5 AWARENESS RAISING – Design and implementation Regular exchange of information of internal and external awareness raising activities Internal website Project website in Slovenian language Workshops with stakeholders
Further contacts with municipalities did not result in an agreement on the content and proceeding of the study. In the end, representatives of the Municipality of Koper stated explicitly that they would be prepared to assist with data and information, but that they did not want to participate in the project. In Ljubljana, on the other hand, the general interest was expressed several times, but concrete steps postponed due to formal reasons.
Faced with this situation and considering the fact that some background studies have been prepared for, as well as one workshop implemented in, the Municipality of Koper and the coastal subregion already, the project team decided to go on with the Municipality of Koper and the coastal subregion as the model region. Activities and methods were thus adapted to the situation “on the ground”, i.e. the lack of interest of stakeholders.
The most obvious practical consequence of this situation was that intermediate results could not be verified through participatory activities. It has, furthermore, not been possible to connect the results of the model region study to the process of spatial planning documents preparation.
The activities which were performed in the course of Activity 2 implementation can thus be summarized in the following way:
Participatory and awareness raising activities: Ö Workshop in Koper. Wide range of target groups invited, among other administration, NGOs, universities and secondary schools, tourism sector, nature protection bodies from the local, regional and national level. Main aims were providing information on climate change impacts and adaptation, defining key problems and seeking possible initial responses. Ö Stakeholder interviews and two events in Koper. Target groups included stakeholders at national regional and local level from administration, economy and civil initiatives. Aims included gathering information, sensitivization of stakeholders and identification of perceived need for action with reference to climate change.
Background studies on: Ö General information on climate change in the Slovenian coastal area; Ö Climate change impacts on spatial development of coastal areas; Ö Climate change adaptation options in coastal urban areas; Ö Assessment of existing adaptation instruments and measures in Municipality of Koper.
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The results have been prepared in such a way as to give an input for Activity 2 report and be conducive in preparation of adaptation measure proposals.
1.2 Structure and content of the report Structure of the report follows the general frame provided by WP 7 Lead Partner. Firstly, some general information about the model region, i. e. Municipality of Koper and coastal subregion are presented in Chapter 2. Data about economic and social characteristics are complemented by an account of spatial development characteristics of the model region.
In Chapter 3, development of the climate in the past century and observed trends in Slovenia and in the Obalno-kraška region are first described. Temperature, precipitation and other climate variables, such as winds and solar radiation are considered. Further, impacts of trends in climate variables are depicted, with attention give also to sea floods as a characteristic phenomenon in the coastal subregion. The chapter goes on with description of projected climate change and impacts until the end of 21st century. Here, special attention is on the issue of sea level rise, which is one of the most probable and severe impacts of climate change in the model region. Impacts of sea level rise on spatial development of the coastal subregion and the Municipality of Koper are then described in detail. Two sea level rise rates are considered, namely 1 m and 2 m. The description is complemented by graphic presentations.
Chapter 4 starts with assessment of current adaptation strategies and measures at the national, regional and local level. In the conclusions, state of the art in Slovenia is summarized and commented upon.
Recommendations for future adaptation strategies and measures are presented in Chapter 5. A general description of future trends of vulnerability to climate change and response options is first given. The general inertness and ineffectiveness of policies related to climate change is highlighted. Then spatial planning response options to sea level rise are discussed. Here, the problematic relation between uncertainties connected with climate change and its impacts and the requirement of spatial planning is stressed. Further, climate change adaptation options for the coastal subregion and Municipality of Koper are proposed. Practical policy recommendations are introduced for the national, regional and local level. They entail suggestions for general activities, such as awareness raising campaigns, adapting the legislation, as well as recommendations pertaining to spatial planning. Finally, some specific recommendations for the coastal towns are presented. They are based on major projects, planned in the coastal subregion, and experience of some other Adriatic coastal town outside Slovenia.
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2. DESCRIPTION OF MODEL REGION
2.1 Basic Information and Data Municipality of Koper and its subregion, which consists of the three Slovenian coastal municipalities – beside Koper also Izola and Piran – feature as the model region in the Slovenian case study. In the following, Municipality of Koper and its subregion are shortly presented. Some information is provided also about the wider region, that is Obalno-kraška. Municipality of Koper is a NUTS V and Obalno-kraška a NUTS III unit.
Figure 1: Municipality of Koper and its subregion
2.1.1 Position of the Municipality of Koper within the wider region and Slovenia Obalno-kraška is a statistical region in the southwest of Slovenia. The region is composed of 7 municipalities: Divača, Hrpelje-Kozina, Izola, Komen, Koper, Piran, Sežana. The region has 105.313 inhabitants and 1044 km2 surface. Service sector, construction sector and tourism predominate in the region. It has the highest number of tourists of all Slovenian regions (24.5%).
Koper, Izola and Piran are coastal municipalities. Municipality of Koper has 17,6 km, Piran 17,9 km and Izola 8,5 km of coast. Municipalities in the hinterland are characterised by karst phenomena, resulting among other in scarce agricultural land and seasonally limited water availability.
Population Nearly 50% of population in the Obalno-kraška region lives in the Municipality of Koper. Population growth in Koper (9,6) is higher than in the Obalno-kraška region (7,6) and then the Slovenian average (6,4) (all data for 2005).
Education
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Over the past decades, education level has been increasing in Slovenia. The educational level in the Obalno-kraška region was in the year 2002 somewhat higher than the Slovenian average. Gross enrolment ratio in education in the Municipality of Koper was in 2005 higher than in the Obalno- kraška region (74 vs. 72,6%), but lower than average for Slovenia (74,9%).
GDP, regional unemployment and employment Obalno-kraška and Osrednjeslovenska are the only two regions that exceeded Slovenian GDP average in 2003. Unemployment has decreased over the last few years in whole Slovenia. The registered unemployment rate in the Municipality of Koper was 7,0% and was below the value for the Obalno- kraška region (7,5%) and Slovenia (10,2%). The structural unemployment index indicates that the Municipality of Koper and Obalno-kraška region have less problems with unemployment than Slovenia in general. Values for registered employment level confirm this statement: it amounted to 58,4% in the Municipality of Koper and 58,8% in Obalno-kraška region. Both of them were above the Slovenian average of 57,8% (all data for 2005).
Business results in companies and earnings In 2005, monthly gross earnings on employee in the Municipality of Koper were above, whereas in the Obalno-kraška region they were below the Slovenian average. Performance of companies in the region generally improved in 2004 over 2003. Added value per inhabitant and business turnover was among the highest in Slovenia. In general terms it can be stated that the condition of the economy in the Obalno-kraška region is very good.
2.1.2 Position of the Municipality of Koper within the costal subregion A comparison of the Municipality of Koper with the other two coastal municipalities Izola and Piran is presented below.
Population Municipality of Koper is by far the largest municipality both in its subregion and in the Obalno-kraška region.
Municipalities in the Surface (km2) Inhabitants subregion Koper 311,2 49.090 Piran 44,6 16.758 Izola 28,6 14.549 Table 1: Size and population in the Slovenian coastal municipalities in 2005 Source: Statistical Yearbook, Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia. (2006), Ljubljana.
Education
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Municipality of Koper has the highest gross enrolment ratio in education. In 2005, it accounted for 74,0%, in Municipality of Piran for 70,6% and in Municipality of Izola for 68,1%. Koper has also the highest number of graduating students/1000 inhabitants (6,8). The indicator values for municipalities of Piran and Izola are lower, namely 6,4 and 6,2. In the Municipality of Koper there were 31,4% of inhabitants in 2002 with finished public education at least. The indicator values for municipalities of Izola and Piran were 32,7% and 26,0% (Pečar, 2006).
Regional unemployment and employment Compared with the other two municipalities, Koper has the lowest rate of formal unemployment. This indicator is highest in Izola with 10%, whereas Piran has 8,5%. Level of formal registered employment is highest in the Municipality of Koper with 58,4%, but Izola with 58,4% and Piran with 56,6% are not far behind (all data for 2005) (Pečar, 2006).
2.1.3 Municipality of Koper
2.1.3.1 Geographical and physical facts Municipality of Koper is a coastal and frontier municipality. On the west side it is limited with the Adriatic sea (Bay of Koper, 17,6 km), in the north it borders on Italy (14 km), in the east on municipality Hrpelje-Kozina (37 km) and in the south on Croatia (40 km) and on municipality of Piran (14 km). The coast is 17,6 km long. Average depth of sea is 17 m. The main sea current goes from southwest to northeast.
The landscape in the municipality is very diverse: at the coast there is some flatland but also steep flysch slopes, which are exposed to intensive erosion. The hinterland is characterised by hills, which are crisscrossed with gorges. The highest peak is Slavnik (1028 m). By the mouths of rivers Rižana, Badaševica and Dragonja are small flat surfaces cultivable for agriculture. These three rivers are the main source of water for the Obalno-kraška region. They all have the same flow characteristics, i.e. considerable oscillation of water flow (Mestna občina Koper, 2006).
Characteristic for towns by the sea is littoralization – settlement areas very close to the seashore. In Koper, 23.849 inhabitants live in this area. Beside settlements, industry and infrastructure are also concentrated on the area close to the sea. This seashore concentration results in extensive daily migrations of labour force. The hinterland areas are sparsely populated, characteristic settlement pattern being small villages.
2.1.3.2 Main economic characteristics The economy is diverse, but to some extent dominated by the activities performed in the Port of Koper. The enterprise Luka Koper, d.d. provides port and logistics services. Basic activities include cargo handling and warehousing services for all types of goods. They are complemented by a range of additional services for cargo, making up a comprehensive logistics service.
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Apart from port activities, metal industry and chemical industry predominate in the Municipality of Koper. Due to considerable burdens for the environment, the extent of these activities has become smaller.
There are three large enterprises which provide most employment: Luka Koper with 963 employees, Istrabenz with 4.983 employees and Cimos-car manufacturing with 7.281 employees.
In agriculture, wine growing uses 5,79% of agricultural land, fruit growing about 1 % and vegetable growing 7,41% of agricultural land. In 2000, 4.246 people lived in farm households. For only 16% of this population farming was the main activity and source of income, whereas for 84% farming was a secondary activity.
Given the rather industrial character of Koper, tourism has not been given much attention in the past, but recently this has changed. Representatives of the Municipality of Koper believe that tourism is a perspective branch in the municipality of Koper and they intend to support further development of this sector of activity (Mestna občina Koper, 2006, p. 7). The geographical position by the sea and climate are two of the most attracting factors for tourists. Nevertheless, there are also important limitations, most notably lack of space for tourism due to occupancy by other economic activities.
2.1.3.3 Population Koper is the fourth largest city in Slovenia. The Municipality of Koper had 49.090 inhabitants in 2005. Average density of population in the municipality is 158 inhabitants/km2. Density is higher especially in the near-sea areas. The population ageing index in the Municipality of Koper is 133,8, which is higher than the Slovenian average (108,7). Net migration was higher than average for Slovenia in 2005 – 1,4 against 1 per 1000 inhabitants (Pečar, 2006).
2.1.4 Main conclusions Municipality of Koper is one of the three Slovenian coastal municipalities and the largest municipality in the Obalno-kraška region. Its geographical position has enabled growth of industry that is closely connected with the Port of Koper. All economic indicators show that the local and regional economy is well developed and is still improving. Business results and added value on inhabitant indicate that, within Slovenia, Koper has a well developed economy. Indicators for education show that municipality has considerable potential in population and labour force.
The problem could nevertheless be the ageing index – old population has outnumbered the young – and the negative natural increase of population (-0,3) (Pečar, 2006). On the other hand, employment level in Koper is among the highest in Obalno-kraška region and gross monthly earnings are higher than the Slovenian average. These two facts could in future attract younger labour force and immigrants.
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2.2 Spatial development in the Municipality of Koper and in the coastal subregion Spatial development of the Slovenian coastal area is generally characterised by strong pressure on the limited land resource. This is due to rather intense economic development in the past decades, immigration from other Slovenian regions, as well as the attractiveness of the area. Demand for land originates from the interest to establish new or enlarge the existing industrial and service sector facilities, housing construction, development of transport infrastructure etc. An account of this development is given in subsequent text.
2.2.1 Spatial characteristics of the coastal subregion Main characteristic of the urban network in the coastal subregion, that is the coastal municipalities of Koper, Izola and Piran, is a large difference in the potential for development of coastal areas and hinterland1. While a number of urban centres are located on the coastal area, the hinterland remains undeveloped. The urban network is consequently unbalanced.
Another trend, characteristic for past spatial development is excessive spreading of sprawling, that is low density settlements, which are energy inefficient, demand high investments in basic infrastructure, cause pressure on natural environment, cultural heritage and landscape2.
The network of urban centres in the subregion is shown in the following table:
Centre type Name National centre - international role Koper National centre Izola Piran Regional centre Portorož Important local centre Ankaran Dekani Šmarje Lucija Škofije Gračišče Local centre Sečovlje Marezige Table 2: Network of urban centres in the coastal subregion Source: Regionalna zasnova prostorskega razvoja Južne Primorske, Merila poselitve (Regional spatial development plan of the Southern Coastal region).
High influx of residents and tourists is increasing the demand for development of urban areas and infrastructure in the coastal areas, but also opening other development opportunities. Negative
1 ACER, 2006, Regionalna zasnova prostorskega razvoja Južne Primorske, Regional spatial plan of the Southern Coastal region, Novo Mesto, Slovenia. 2 Regionalni razvojni center Koper, 2006. Regionalni razvojni program Južne Primorske 2007-2013, Regional development programme of the Southern Coastal region 2007-2013, Koper, Slovenia.
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consequences of such pressure are increasing environmental problems and spatial conflicts, which have negative effect on the quality of life and tourist services.
Lack of a unified vision of spatial development in the subregion is evident in a number of conflict zones, resulting from inappropriate spatial solutions (residential areas, economic and industrial zones, tourist areas). A number of parallel, mutually exclusive visions are developing instead, which only increases the intensity of spatial conflicts3.
The subregion’s hinterland is less densely populated. Urban areas are dispersed, there are fewer urban centres, and some areas remain undeveloped. Sprawling areas are exerting negative effects on landscape and causing other environmental problems.
Figure 2: Programmatic and spatial definition of development projects and conflict areas in the coastal region, Source: University of Ljubljana: Detailed development plan of the coastal region, 2004.
Road infrastructure is underdeveloped. An important improvement to the connection of the subregion with central Slovenia is the motorway Koper (Divača) - Ljubljana, which also enhances road connection of the largest traffic generator, Port of Koper. Connections between urban centres in the subregion are not sufficient, especially in the peak tourist season. Rail network needs further development in order to connect the Port of Koper to Slovenian and European infrastructure corridors properly.
3 Note from the workshop for preparing Regional development plan of Southern Coastal region.
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2.2.2 Spatial characteristics of the Municipality of Koper As in the case of the coastal subregion, uneven spatial development is also characteristic for the Municipality of Koper. Urban development has, in the last 20 years, focused mostly on suburban areas around historic coastal centres. The hinterland remains underdeveloped, some villages are decaying. New houses are being built on village edges, some old houses are being renovated, but only as secondary housing.
As mentioned above, urbanization is focused on the coastal area of the municipality. Hierarchy of centres and subcentres is as follows4: − Centre of national importance: Koper. − Important local centre: Ankaran. − Local centres: Črni kal, Gračišče, Marezige, Šmarje, Dekani, Hrvatini, Škofije, Bertoki-Prade. − Smaller local centres: Gradin, Boršt, Vanganel, Pridvor, Pobegi-Šežarji.
Figure 3: Municipality of Koper, Source: Surveying and Mapping Authority of the Republic of Slovenia.
4 ACER, 2006, Regionalna zasnova prostorskega razvoja Južne Primorske, Regional development plan of Southern Coastal region, Novo Mesto, Slovenia.
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Key territorial potentials of the municipality include natural and cultural heritage, natural resources, tourist and recreational potential, urban, architectural and landscape qualities. Most important spatial conflict and environmental pressures come from road, sea, rail and air traffic, tourism, industry and urbanization.
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3. CLIMATE CHANGE AND CORRESPONDING IMPACTS
3.1 Development in the 20th Century and Observed Trends in Slovenia and the Obalno-kraška region Climatic conditions in Slovenia vary. There is a Continental climate in the northeast, a severe Alpine climate in the high mountain regions, and a sub-Mediterranean climate in the coastal region. Yet there is a strong interaction between these three climatic systems across most of the country. This variety is also reflected in climatic variability over time and is an important factor determining the impact of global climate change in the country. Of course, average conditions do not reflect the variety of conditions that occur in the presence of different weather types, which are the main cause of variability. It is quite common that strong southwest winds bring clouds and precipitation to the west of Slovenia, while sunny and relatively warm weather prevails in the eastern part. Alternatively, when during winter low cloudiness and cold grey weather persists inland, it is sunny with a mild temperature in the Obalno-kraška region.
3.1.1 Temperature The air temperature (T) in Slovenia has a well distinctive daily and yearly course. The greatest differences between maximum and minimum rates occur in the northeast of Slovenia, where the influence of the continental climate is the strongest. The sea has, on the other hand, a distinct influence on the temperature of the air as well: it acts like a large thermal storehouse and contributes to a tighter temperature span of the air in the coastal region.
The maximum T depends mainly on the elevation, but for the minimum T the situation is more complex. Even over a very short distance the differences can be significant.
Temperature trends clearly show that there have been some changes during the last two decades, a trend of higher T can be spotted all over the county. There are, of course, some regional variations and the coastal region seems to show less pronounced temperature trends, mainly due to the vicinity of the sea. In urbanised areas the trends show a major increase that is mainly due to the rapid urbanisation and growth of cities. A notable rise in temperature has been observed at the highest Slovenian station, Kredarica (2514 m a.s.l.), where the impact of urbanisation is negligible.
Differences between seasons are also well pronounced. The most intense warming trends are observed during winter and spring (Table 3). There are also noticeable trends in the decrease in the number of foggy days and a trend of extended duration of solar radiation. To date, natural variability is so much larger than the observed trends that it is sometimes difficult to distinguish between natural variability and climate change impacts. Thus, although the majority of trends are not statistically significant these results indicate changes in the overall atmospheric circulation, which is reflected in milder and sunnier winters.
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Figure 4: Mean annual air temperature in Slovenia during a) 1971-1980 (top left), b) 1981-1990 (top right) and c) 1991-2000 (middle)
autumn winter spring summer annual
Rateče 1.2 0.9 2.1 2.2 1.6
Murska Sobota 1.5 0.3 1.7 2.6 1.5
Novo mesto 1.4 0.6 1.7 2.4 1.5
Bilje 1.0 -0.2 1.2 1.9 1.0
Kredarica 0.5 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.4
Ljubljana 1.4 0.8 1.8 2.6 1.7
Table 3: Trends in average seasonal and annual air temperature (in °C/30 years) in Slovenia for the period 1971- 2000. Note: Bilje is the monitoring station most relevant for the Obalno-kraška region.
For monitoring stations in Slovenia trends for the 50-year period have been calculated. Average annual T in Slovenia during the last 50 years (1951-2000) has risen by 1.1 ± 0.6°C in a statistically significant manner (p< 0.05), with major increases occurring in urban areas (Maribor 1.7 ± 0.6°C/50 years), Ljubljana (1.4 ± 0.6°C/50 years), and lesser increases in agricultural areas (Kočevje and Rateče
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0.8 ± 0.6°C/50 years). Due to the vicinity of the sea, the warming trend has been least apparent in Portorož (0.6 ± 0.5°C/50 years).
Air temperature trend in a 50- Relative change in precipitation year period (in °C) quantity in a 50-year period (in %)
Maribor +1.7 * -1.5
Ljubljana +1.4 * -2.2
Celje +1.4 * -7.8
Novo mesto +1.2 * +0.9
Slovenj Gradec +1.1 * -6.3
Murska Sobota +1.1 * +1.6
Kočevje +0.8 * -15.7
Rateče +0.8 * -21.1
Postojna +0.7 * +13.1
Portorož +0.8 * -9.0
Table 4: Trends in average annual air temperature (in °C/50 years) and relative change in precipitation (in %/50 years) in Slovenia for the period 1951- 2000. Note: Portorož is located within the Obalno-kraška region.
Statistically significant trends in Tables 3 and 4 at the risk level below 5% are marked with an asterisk or are printed in bold characters.
Particularly intense rises in air temperature occurred after 1980, while 2000 was recorded as the warmest year in Slovenia since the establishment of the meteorological measurements network. Similarly to other parts of Europe, Slovenia experienced the most intense warming trend during winter and spring periods, which also results in a reduced number of snow cover days, a gradual retreat of the Triglav glacier, an earlier start to phenological phases of plants etc.
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Figure 5: Trends in average annual air temperature in Slovenia for the period 1971- 2000.
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3.1.2 Precipitation In Slovenia, great differences can be recorded not only in temperatures, but also in precipitation (P). Actually, there are areas where annual P is about 3500 mm, which is four times more than in relatively weakly moistened northeast part of the country. The annual P changes a lot with years, and the differences are even greater when the quantity per each separate month is observed. The Julian Alps and the Dinaric-Alpine barrier receive the greatest amount of P; the next maxima are the Alps above Kamnik and above the Savinja river. The annual amount of P declines with remoteness from the sea towards the north-eastern part of the country, where it drops to 800 mm. Such distribution is the consequence of geomorphologic characteristics, but also of the fact that most of the P are brought by the SW winds. Regions under strong influence of the vicinity of the sea receive the highest rate of P in autumn, while regions in the north-eastern Slovenia, that are already affected by the continental climate, receive the maximum of P in summer.
Figure 6: Statistically significant trends in seasonal amounts of precipitation during 1971-2005: autumn (top left), winter top right, spring (bottom left) and summer (bottom right) (red - increase, blue - decrease, yellow - no change)
The trends in annual P in most areas of Slovenia are not statistically significant (Table 4), with the exception of the locations of Kočevje and Rateče, which during the last 50 years recorded a statistically significant drop in precipitation (-16 ± 10 % per 50 years and 21 ± 14 % per 50 years). So far, no note has been taken of an appreciable change in the precipitation regime despite more frequent summer droughts in the north-eastern part of Slovenia, with the exception of the intensity of showers which is showing a slight growth.
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On the other hand, there are trends in seasonal P amounts. Differences between seasons are also well pronounced. The most intense P increasing trends are observed during autumn, while winter, spring and summer P are decreasing (Fig. 6). Longer periods of drought appear in Slovenia at the end of winter and in spring, however summer droughts are much more problematic due to faster evaporation. The worst summer droughts so far occurred in 2001 and 2003, which caused a great deal of damage to agriculture, and in places threatened sources of drinking water. Summer droughts in 1992, 1993 and 2000 were also of catastrophic proportions. At the coast droughts usually occur every summer. In the summer of 2004, drought occurred only in the south-western part of the country, while precipitation in the summer of 2005 exceeded the average based on many years almost all over the country.
Every year local severe weather affects Slovenia a few times, strong thunderstorms are coupled with strong wind gusts, intense precipitation and sometimes hail cause significant damage to local communities, while heavy precipitation sometimes results in flash floods. Severe storms with strong winds, heavy precipitation and hail could cause a lot of damage on the crop, especially in the vegetation period, when the energy accumulated in storms and kinetic energy of hail particles is the largest.
The risk of severe storms in Slovenia is among the highest in Europe. Spatially homogeneous decrease of storm frequency was detected in Obalno-kraška and in Jugovzhodna Slovenia regions. On the other hand, storm frequency increased in the Pomurje region. In other parts of the country there is no uniform trend in storm frequency for larger domains (Fig. 7).
Figure 7: Spatial distribution of statistically Figure 8: Spatial distribution of statistically significant trends in storm frequency during significant trends in hail frequency during May- May-September (red - increase, blue - decrease, September yellow - no change)
Symmetrically to the storm decrease, the frequency of hail decreased in the Obalno-kraška region and in Bela Krajina subregion. In the last 14 years, less hail was observed also in parts of the Štajerska region and at the southern edge of Julian Alps. A positive trend in hail frequency was observed in Goriška Brda, in the central part of Slovenia with Bloška planota, in a small part of the Karavanke mountains and in some parts of the Štajerska region (Fig. 8).
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Storms are strongly correlated to short-term heavy precipitation. The trends in frequency of 30- minutes precipitation exceeding 12 mm are accordingly correlated to trends in storm frequency. The differences across Slovenia are considerable, in some parts statistically significant increase in the frequency of heavy rain showers has been observed, and in other parts the frequency is decreasing.
3.1.3 Trends in other climate variables There are also noticeable trends in the decrease in the number of foggy days and a trend of extended duration of solar radiation. To date, natural variability is so much larger than the observed trends that it is sometimes difficult to distinguish between natural variability and climate change impacts. Thus, although the majority of trends are not statistically significant, these results do indicate changes in the overall atmospheric circulation, which is reflected in milder and sunnier winters.
Strong winds are not very frequent in Slovenia. With the exception of strong wind gusts that usually accompany storms, the bora is the strongest and exceptional gusty wind in Slovenia. In gusts it reaches a velocity of up to 45 m/s. It is typical of the Vipava valley, the Karst and the Obalno-kraška region. It blows mostly from the north-eastern direction, but due to the construction of the relief, it deviates locally also to the east and to the north. In locations where bora is the strongest, sometimes traffic is disturbed or in case of extremely strong bora even interrupted for long and large vehicles. The north fen is another occasionally very strong local wind, from time to time its consequences destroy parts of woods and buildings, yet strong southerly winds can also have similar impacts, although in different areas.
3.1.4 Impacts of trends in climate variables Due to climate change, Slovenia faces droughts more frequently even in areas in which they were not noticed before. Water deficit from April until end of September shows that in the majority of Slovenia drought harmed agricultural plants 12 times in the last forty years: 1967, 1971, 1973, 1977, 1983, 1992, 1993, 1994, 2000, 2001 in 2003 and 2006.
Average annual potentially available quantity of water in Slovenia is large (32.1 km3) but in the last 40 years oscillations of actually available water were huge. In 1971, less than half of the quantity of the outflow from Slovenia in 1965 was recorded, whereas 49 km3 was a maximum in the 1961–2000 periods. The downward slope of the trend line is 0.15 km3 per year, representing a 6 km3 decrease of water that was as a rule at disposal in that period. Such a decrease is not only a consequence of the increased use of water, but mostly due to changeable climate conditions, particularly those that have an impact on the quantity and temporal rainfall distribution. Trend lines for chosen water metering stations on river basins that represent different regions show a decrease of mean annual flow rate on all river basins. The same is true of minor flow rates, whereas there is a decrease of major flow rates only on river basins of the Adriatic rivers and Drava.
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3.1.4.1 Extreme events Average conditions are not enough to properly describe the climate. Apart from averages, another important aspect of climate involves extreme events as they constitute an integral part of the natural climate. Although Slovenia is relatively small, the differences in the magnitude and frequency of extreme values of weather variables in respective parts of the country are noticeable and crucial. Due to the very well pronounced variability and, by definition, rare occurrence of weather and climate extremes it is difficult to assess trends and long-term variations. The time between two occurrences of one particular extreme event in a certain area may extend over a period of several years. All extreme events observed to date will continue to occur in the future. Along with the expected climate change impact on extreme weather we will most likely experience an increase in both its intensity and frequency. The possible synergistic effects of various components of the climate system and the environment also need to be considered.
3.1.4.2 Seasonal and interannual changes of the Adriatic sea level Seasonal oscillations of the Adriatic Sea level are dominantly driven by the annual course of the heat and water budget at the sea surface, having as a consequence expanding and contracting of the upper layers and changes in sea level height (so called steric effect).
Large seasonal variations in heat budget over the Adriatic are dominantly manifested in generation, development and destruction of thermocline and thermal expansion. The highest sea levels occur in autumn (October–December), whereas the lowest ones are found in the spring and summer seasons. However, seasonal variations can also result from air pressure and wind changes. Interannual sea level changes are driven by climatic fluctuations of the meteorological parameters, e.g. of air pressure, surface heat flux, precipitations. Such changes are estimated at several centimetres in the Adriatic Sea, which makes it impossible to calculate precisely the sea level trends.
However, the sea level trends reveal a deceleration of the sea level rise in the Adriatic till 1990s, presumably being a result of a negative trend in precipitation and the fresh water inflow into the sea and of changes in the bottom circulation and water masses in the Mediterranean Sea. Conversely, recent satellite and hydrographical measurements indicate rapid rising of sea level in the whole Mediterranean due to the increase in sea surface temperature (Tsimplis and Rixen, 2002). In addition, vertical crustal movements cannot be neglected when calculating the trends, as they can enlarge the sea level trends at some places and cause a high rate of the sea level fall at others (e.g. Scandinavia). In the Adriatic, crustal movement rates are of order of 1 mm/year, but vary spatially, complicating the estimation of absolute sea levels.
Systematic tide measurements in Slovenia began in 1958, but data for the town of Koper are available only since 1963. The tide gauge in Koper is located in the northern part of Adriatic in the Bay of Koper at the industrial pier grounded to the bottom with piles (http://www.eseas.org/ products/eda/stations/kope.html ) Sea level is rising in the Koper Bay (Figure 9), but the trend is statistically not significant.
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250 Maximum level (cm) 240 2 mm/10 yy 230 R 2 = 0,003 Mean annual level (cm) 220 7 mm/10 y R 2 = 0,12 210 7 mm/10 y 2 200 R = 0,026
Sea level (cm) 190 Minimum level (cm) 180 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Figure 9: Observed sea level rise in the Koper Bay, Slovenia
Regarding the rate of SLR, which is at the moment 7mm per decade, it may be difficult to distinguish between already existing anthropogenic and climate change effects. Assessments are further hampered by lack of historical time series.
3.1.4.3 Sea floods Sea floods are a common occurrence on the Slovenian coast. Their extent and inflicted damage are usually not large, but they pose a significant financial cost on some occasions. Floods are very characteristic of the autumn-winter period, from October to January, and they are most frequent in November. They are also frequent in spring, but very rare in the summer. The reason for such distribution is particularly in the higher frequency of the Genoa cyclone at that time of the year. Sea floods happen because of flood tides, which are caused by some meteorological factors in combination with hydrological factors. There is a marked influence of strong south winds and drops in air pressure.
Rising of the sea level and pushing the water from the entire Adriatic towards upper Adriatic can also block the mouths of the rivers in this area. The riverine water cannot flow out normally and the rivers begin to flood the areas near the mouth of the river – the flood areas of the sea and the rivers join (Kolega, 2006).
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The largest flood area is in the municipality of Piran, particularly because of the biggest flood surface – salt-pans of Sečovlje. The smallest flood area is in the municipality of Izola. Flood area of yearly floods represents approximately 27% of flood area during extreme floods.
Municipality Flood area during Flood area during extreme floods (in km2) yearly floods (in km2) Koper 6.12 0.25 Izola 0.20 0.03 Piran 7.71 3.48 All three municipalities together 14.04 3.77 Table 5: Surface of flood areas during extreme and yearly sea floods (modified after Kolega (2006)).
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3.2 Projected climate changes and impacts for Slovenia and the Obalno-kraška region
3.2.1 Climate change in Slovenia and the Obalno-kraška region until end of 21st century In this century, the warming in Slovenia is projected to continue at a rate somewhat greater than the global mean. Under the A1B scenario, the simulated area and annual mean warming from 1980–1999 to 2080–2099 varies from 2.2 to 5.1°C with a median of 3.5°C. In most models, circulation changes enhanced the warming in winter due to an increase in westerly flow and in late summer due to a decrease in westerly flow. Several studies have indicate increased T variability in summer, both on inter-annual and daily time scales and reduced T variability in winter. The number of frost days is very likely to decrease.
Changes in the pattern of precipitation (P) may have an even greater impact than rising T. Unfortunately projections of changes in P patterns in mountains are tenuous in most GCMs because the controls of topography on P are not adequately represented. Climate models results indicate a south-north contrast in P changes across Europe, with increases in the north and decreases in the south. The annual mean change from 1980–1999 to 2080–2099 in the worst case scenario A1B is from –4% to –27% in the Alpine area. In summer, most models simulate decreased P in Slovenia. The most consistent and largest decreases occur in summer, with increasing evaporation, but the Mediterranean mean winter P also decreases in most models. Changes in P will vary substantially on relatively small horizontal scales in areas of complex topography. The details of this variation depend on changes in the future atmospheric circulation. Much larger changes are expected in the recurrence frequency of P extremes than in the magnitude of extremes.
Temperature Precipitation (oC) (%)
Figure 10: Signal in 2m-Temperature and precipitation 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990, A2 scenario for Alpine region of Slovenia (modified from Jacob (2006))
Projected monthly changes of T and P based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios produced by the Swedish Rossby Centre as a contribution to the PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional Scenarios
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and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate Change Risks and Effects) project (Räisänen et al., 2004) are shown in Fig. 10 and 11. Simulations using two driving global models (HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3) and two IPCC SRES emission scenarios (A2 and B2) resulted in four realizations of climate change from 1961–1990 to 2071–2100.
Figure 11: Signal in 2m-Temperature and precipitation 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990, A2 scenario for the Mediterranean region in Slovenia (modified from Jacob (2006))
Another source of climate change projections for Slovenia are the results of simulations with five GCM (Bergant and Kajfež Bogataj 2003 and 2005). These were projected to 5 locations in Slovenia, that is Ljubljana, Novo mesto, Murska Sobota, Rateče and Bilje, by using empirical downscaling method. Primarily due to poor horizontal resolution (2° x 2° or more) the reliability of GCM results at the regional or local scale is low, as it does not include regional surface features or map their impact on climate diversity. These factors are very significant in Slovenia. Bridging the gap found in climate change impact studies between GCM results and local level climate change assessments is essential. The research employed empirically reduced scales to bridge this gap. In this method the connection between climate variables on the local scale and the larger scale was made by use of various mathematical models based on previously measured values. A key assumption was that the mathematical description of dependence between local and large scale variables will still be valid in changed climatic conditions.
The selected locations represent different regions of Slovenia: Ljubljana – central, Novo mesto – SE, and Murska Sobota – NE with mild-continental climate, Rateče – NW with mountainous climate and Bilje – SW with sub-Mediterranean climate. The grey area represents the spread of values taking into account the results of simulations with four GCMs. The results of the simulations, based on the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, were also applied to SRES A1Fl, A1B, A1T and B1. No large differences in average annual air temperature were expected between Slovenian regions (Fig. 12).
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Figure 12: Simulated temperature rise (ΔT in °C) in Ljubljana, Novo mesto, Murska Sobota, Rateče and Bilje (left) and relative change in precipitation amount (ΔP/P in %) at same locations (right) till year 2100
The projections for air temperature changes are more reliable than for precipitation amount, especially for warm half of the year. From what we know at present, the following tendency is plausible: the climate of Slovenia will become warmer and drier.
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3.2.2 Impacts of climate change in Slovenia and the Obalno-kraška region until end of 21st century
3.2.2.1 General observations about impacts of climate change Climate change scenarios for Slovenia do not explicitly quantify changes in daily weather extremes. However, it is very likely that frequencies and intensities of summer heat waves will increase throughout Slovenia, that intense precipitation events will increase in frequency, especially in winter, and that summer drought risk will increase in SW Slovenia. It is also possible that gale frequencies will increase. An important issue for the coastal area will be the sea level rise and its consequences.
As the envisaged rise in air temperature to the end of the 21st century exceeds the air temperature variability in the period 1951-2000 and any other period respectively, that has elapsed since the first measurement of meteorological variables in Slovenia, climate conditions and their consequences will most likely also reach a state which cannot be predicted on the basis of the established past trends.
On the above stated grounds it is reasonable to conduct studies on the impact of climate change and vulnerability there to, taking into account various combinations of rises in air temperature and changes in precipitation, covering a wide range of possible climate changes. Most reasonable are the interval of air temperature changes extending from +1°C to +4°C with regard to their average value in the period 1961-1990 and the interval of precipitation changes extending from +10% to -30%. Such an extent would cover climate changes in Slovenia within the first half of the 21st century as indicated by projections of GCM results. The use of various combinations would eventually facilitate an assessment of any sector activity and vulnerability to potential climate changes.
3.2.2.2 Future sea level rise Sea level rise is part of the inescapable physical consequences of global warming. The United Nations panel IPCC assumed in 2001 that the average global temperature will increase by up to 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2100, and that the sea level will rise by up to 48 centimetres as a result of the water's thermal expansion alone. Sea level rise of 9 to 88 cm has been projected for 1990 to 2100, with a central value of 48 cm (Fig 13). The central value equals an average rate of 2.2 to 4.4 times the rate over the twentieth century (IPCC, 2001).
The 2007 IPCC report predicts a global average temperature rise of 1.8 to 5 degrees by 2100. For sea levels it predicted a rise of 17.8 centimetres to 58.4 centimetres by the end of the century. The report says an additional rise between 9.9 to 19.8 centimetres is possible due to continued melting of polar ice sheets. But the incipient melting of Greenland's pack ice could significantly increase that number, up to 140 cm for this period (Rahmstorf et al. 2007). The high thermal storage capacity of ocean water and the slow reaction of ice-shields appear to delay a general accelerated sea level rise at European coasts.
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Figure 13: Projected global average sea level rise under the range of the six SRES scenarios (IPCC, 2001) and a calibrated global climate/ocean model.
Figure 14: Sea level rise as observed (from Church and White 2006) shown in red up to the year 2001, together with the IPCC (2001) scenarios for 1990-2100.
The fact is that science still gets varying results (Fig. 14) about future sea level rise due to use of different methods. Therefore, the current sea level rise predictions are still uncertain. Available data indicate that sea levels are rising faster than expected, and the main reason is climate change. More accurate models are required to explain the rapid rate in sea level rise. It is important to understand why the observed rate of sea-level rise is greater than the models can explain, since we are relying on those models to make projections for the next 100 years. The latter observation has led to questions about whether the rate of 20th century sea level rise, based on poorly distributed historical tide gauges, is really representative of the true global mean. Such a possibility has been the object of an active debate, and the discussion is far from being closed.
Due to varying results about the future global sea level rise, it is extremely hard to estimate regional sea-level rise in case of the Adriatic coast. It is reasonable to conduct studies on the impact of climate change and vulnerability due to future sea level rise, taking into account various sea level rise rates, namely from 60 cm up to 140 cm.
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Figure 15: Comparison of the 2001 IPCC sea-level scenarios (starting in 1990) and observed data: the Church and White (2006) data based primarily on tide gauges (annual, red) and the satellite altimeter data (updated from Cazenave and Nerem 2004, 3-month data spacing, blue, up to mid-2006) are shown with their trend lines. Note that the observed sea level rise tends to follow the uppermost dashed line of the IPCC scenarios.
3.2.2.3 Indirect impacts of climate change in the Obalno-kraška region In the case of the Slovenian coastal municipalities increases or decreases in precipitation and runoff may respectively increase the risk of coastal flooding or drought. Increase of extreme events, namely flooding/drought alternance like in 2000-2006 can alter salinity and nutrient balances within lagoons. Prolonged flooding determines submersion in the subsident areas of the watershed and a decrease of salinity in the lagoon. This will affect marine, and to a lesser extent brackish species. Salinity changes will influence marine life and many commercial species, such as clams, may be negatively influenced. Prolonged drought causes a decrease in freshwater discharge. On the landside, it causes increased costs, e.g. for irrigation, and decreased vegetal production as was the case in 2003. In the lagoon side, less freshwater discharge causes a decrease in nutrient discharge, which in turn lower phytoplankton production and biomass with effects on clam and mussels crops.
Sea-level rise will gradually inundate coastal lagoons and surrounding lands. Coastal lagoons could potentially migrate inland with rising sea levels. However, most of the Slovenian coast is obstructed by human development, therefore they face the risk of annihilation. Even a limited increase can submerge part of sandy barriers separating lagoons and sea. The first consequence may be an increase of the hydrodynamic exchange with the sea. It may happen that for some lagoons, submergence will only displace the equilibrium between sedimentation accumulation and SLR rates, leading to the maintenance of the same volumetric capacity. If the relative rate of sea level rise is accelerated, or for lagoon with small barriers, accretion may not be sufficient to maintain equilibrium with SLR, certain lagoons may disappear. Overall, these processes are influent on coastal lagoon persistence. To summarize: future sea level rise (SLR) would increase water depth in the Slovenian lagoons, alter water circulation, affect solid transport and erosion-sedimentation equilibrium and increase ingression of salt water into inland coastal areas.
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Increasing drought risk for Slovenian coast is primarily caused by climate change and it would be amplified by increase in water withdrawals. In this part of Slovenia the highest increase in irrigation water demand is projected. It is likely that due to both climate change and increasing water withdrawals the river basin area affected by severe water stress will increase and lead to increasing competition for available water resources. Decrease in annual runoff by up 20-30% is expected by 2050.
Fire danger, length of the fire season, and fire frequency and severity are very likely to increase in the Mediterranean part of Slovenia and may lead to increased dominance of shrubs over trees. The range of important forest insect pests may expand to this area as well.
In coastal part of Slovenia under future climate change demand for heating decreases and demand for cooling increases relative to 1961-1990 levels. Around 2-3 fewer weeks in a year will require heating but along the coast an additional 2-3 weeks will need cooling by 2050. Up to 10% decrease in energy use for heating requirements and up to 30% increase in cooling requirements is projected. Summer space cooling needs for air conditioning will particularly affect electricity demand with up to 50% increases. Peaks in electricity demand during summer heat waves are very likely to equal or exceed peaks in demand during cold winter periods. The distribution of energy is also vulnerable to climate change.
The effects of climate change and increased atmospheric CO2 will be felt also on crop productivity. However, technological development, e.g. new crop varieties and better cropping practices, might far outweigh the effects of climate change in Slovenia. Climate-related increases in crop yields are mainly expected in N. Europe, while the largest reductions are expected along the Mediterranean. There general decreases in yield and increases in water demand are expected for spring-sown crops. The impacts on autumn-sown crops are more diverse. The predicted increase in extreme weather events, such as spells of high temperature and droughts, is expected to increase yield variability and to reduce average yield. Climate change will modify other processes on agricultural land, as well. Increasing temperatures may also increase the risk of crop and livestock diseases.
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3.3 Impacts of sea level rise on spatial development of the coastal subregion and the Municipality of Koper
3.3.1 Basic premises and working method
3.3.1.1 Selection of the climate change related impact In the previous chapters, several direct and indirect impacts of climate change on the coastal subregion of Slovenia have been described, such as occurrence of summer heat waves, change in precipitation patterns, sea level rise, flooding and droughts, competition for water resources among users, increased fire danger. The majority of impacts could not be quantified, not least due to general problems of climate change interpretation at regional and local level. One exception is the sea level rise, for which differing but concrete quantification does exist.
At the stakeholder workshop in Koper, held on 18 June 2007, one aim was to identify climate change related issues, which the workshop participants evaluate as most important. Identification of topics and their ranking gave the following result5: • Sea level rise • Lack of water – drinking water, drought • Weather change – heat, ozone • Potential response to climate change – what can be done Subsequently, two of three groups at the workshop decided to reflect about possible adaptation options to sea level rise.
In the discussion within the project team, further merits in favour of sea level rise as the topic on which to center further study phases arose: sea level rise and its consequences will have strong impact on spatial development, it is an issue with a potentially high sensitizing and awareness raising capacity. Thus the decision was made to take sea level rise and the consequent flooding as the main impact and issue to be treated in subsequent steps of the model region study.
3.3.1.2 Sea level rise rate As has been mention in ch. 3.2.2.2, predictions about sea level rise rate are not unified. Current trend of sea level change on the Slovenian coast, based on measurements taken in Koper in the period 1960- 2001, is estimated at 0,1 meter in 100 years6. Some studies predict that as a consequence of global climate change sea level in Upper Adriatic Sea will rise for about 50 cm in the next hundred years7.
5 Praper, S., Javornik, M., 2007: Delavnica Podnebne spremembe in prostorski razvoj obalnih občin. Poročilo o delavnici. Workshop Climate change and spatial development in the coastal municipalities. Workshop report, Urban Planning Institute of RS, Ljubljana. 6 Regionalni razvojni center Koper, 2006, Regionalni razvojni program Južne Primorske 2007-2013, Regional development programme of Southern Coastal region 2007-2013, Koper, Slovenia. 7 Robič M. in Vrhovec T., 2002: Poplavljanje morske obale, Flooding of sea shore, v Nesreče in varstvo pred njimi, Disasters and protection, page 256-259, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
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Other extreme scenarios predict even up to 6 meters8. Teatini P. and Gambolati G. (1999)9 cite Wigley and Raper (1992, 1996) who have provided an estimation of sea level rise for Upper Adriatic Sea. Their estimation is that the sea level rise is ranking from 15 to 90 cm, with a best guess of 48 cm in 2100.
Teatini P. and Gambolati G. (1999) quote also Yu at al. (1998) who produced an estimate about the possibility of occurrence of an extreme surge level in the Upper Adriatic Sea. Yu`s predictions are presented in Figure 16. The mentioned author estimates sea level rise due to extreme surge level in the rankings from 145 cm to 170 cm for the part of Upper Adriatic Sea where Slovenian coast and the coast of the Municipality of Koper is to be found.
Figure 16: Map of the storm surge in the Upper Adriatic Sea for a meteo-marine event with 100 year return period (after Yu et al. 1998).
Flooding has been an issue in the coastal subregion and the Municipality of Koper for longer time. Previous studies of flood threats have been carried out10, but they focus mainly on threats by combinations of strong rain and high tide that cause swift streams to break the river banks and spill over land before they reach the sea.
In this study we have considered two possibilities of the average sea level rise in the Upper Adriatic Sea. One is the rise of approximately 1 meter. This is well within the range between 60 and 140 cm, which has been suggested as the appropriate range for studying impacts in ch. 3.2.2.2. The other option is more extreme and presupposes sea level rise of 2 meter. This can be associated with storm surges of extreme meteo-marine events, or sea level rise in a longer time perspective.
8 Vida Ogorelec Wagner: predavanje Kdo, če ne mi? kdaj, če ne sedaj?, lecture Who if not us, when if not now?, UIRS 21. marec 2007, http://videolectures.net/uirs07_ogorelec_wagner_kcn/ 9 Teatini P. and Gambolati G.,1999, The impact of climate change, sea-storm events and land subsidence in the Adriatic, The impacts of climate change on the Mediterranean area: Regional scenarios and vilnerability assessment, Venice, 9-10th December 1999, Italy. 10 Mestna občina Koper, 2006: Program varstva pred naravnimi in drugimi nesrečami 2006-2010, Protection against natural and other disasters programme 2006-2010, Koper, Slovenia.
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3.3.1.3 Working method The study analysed geodetic data and determined areas affected by sea level change in case of the cumulative 1 and 2 meter sea level rise in the coastal subregion, i.e. municipalities Izola, Koper and Piran. Data have been acquired from the Surveying and Mapping Authority of the Republic of Slovenia and cover most of the study area. A small area around the town of Piran was not available, so these areas are not included in the overall numeric results. However, endangered areas are described in the list below, since they are well known from previous flooding incidents.
Areas affected by sea level change were compared with the existing and planned land use. Data about land use were acquired through analysis of municipal spatial plans. Special attention was devoted to larger economic and infrastructure facilities in the area, as well as to dense urban areas.
3.3.2 Predicted consequences of sea level rise on spatial development of the coastal subregion
3.3.2.1 Present and potential future spatial development characteristics of the coastal subregion Sea level rise can have serious consequences on the coastal regions of the whole Upper Adriatic - beside Slovenian coast and the Municipality of Koper also Trieste, Venice and other towns and areas on the Italian side. Predominantly constant sea level in the past years – sea level in the Adriatic sea has risen approx. 20 cm in the twentieth century, low tidal differences and specific geographic configuration, which does not allow high waves to develop, allowed urban development in close proximity of the coast, right to the sea shore. Minimal protection measures assured sufficient protection against rare flooding incidents.
Low lying areas which were rarely flooded became interesting for development, mostly for industrial use. Cheap, usually underused farmland needed just small input to become appropriate for undemanding industrial uses such as storage in the case of Port of Koper, which developed over a large area in recent years. In some cases also town extensions, housing and tourism expanded over such endangered areas. A worrying case is recent fast growth of different facilities such as shopping and sport centres in the Koper Bonifika area, known for its flood endangerment. Protection measures applied are minimal or in some other cases even none.
If social and economic development follows the current pattern also in the future, then the pressure for inappropriate uses of areas, endangered by floods, will continue.
3.3.2.2 Consequences of sea level rise Findings showed that in the coastal subregion a total of more than 970 hectares of land would be flooded with water in case of 1 meter, and additional 400 hectares in case of 2 meter water level rise. In total that sums in almost 1.400 hectares of lost or endangered land.
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The largest threatened areas are located in the municipalities of Koper (273 hectares at 1 meter and total of 537 hectares at 2 meter sea level change) and Piran (685 hectares at 1 meter and total of 780 hectares at 2 meter sea level change). In case of the Municipality of Koper, these areas are located in the backgrounds of the Port of Koper toward Srmin and the Bonifika area. In case of the Municipality of Piran, large areas are salt works Sečovlje and Strunjan, with important economic, as well as cultural role.
Figure 17: Flooded areas of the coastal subregion in scenario of 1 meter sea level rise.
Key: 1 - Town and Port of Koper; 2 - Town of Izola; 3 - Settlement and salt works in Strunjan; 4 – Settlement of Portorož; 5 - Salt works in Sečovlje
But it is not just the size of endangered areas that is worrying. In some cases, dense urban areas with rich cultural heritage are threatened. Such examples are the municipalities of Izola and Piran. Historical centre of Koper, that used to be an island and lies just a few meters uphill is less endangered.
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Similar findings are presented in an article on Slovenian coast sea flood risk11: “In the coastal communities building plans have been approved allowing building on flooding areas. In the town of Koper those are building of a new elementary school, fire brigade house and public health centre in Bonifika, economic zone Sermin and 3rd pier of the Port of Koper.
In the Municipality of Izola, they plan to build the Argolina tourist-bussines-residential complex and other tourist complexes in the vicinity of Simon’s bay. In the Municipality of Piran, plans include widening of the runway of the Portorož Airport, setting up of a golf course in the vicinity of Sečovlje and an extensive settlement plan for the Seča peninsula, which touches the borders of two mayor flooding areas - the salt-pans and the tract near the canal of Saint Jernej. There are also plans to build a new marina, many villas, hotels and other facilities.”
Figure 18: Flooded areas on the Slovenian coast during yearly and extreme floods, section of map representing Piran and surroundings, Source: Nataša Kolega, Slovenian coast sea flood risk, 2006
Threats to the town of Piran are described in detail in the same article: “High water would cover entire coast around the cape of Madona to Ressel’s street and the beginning of Gregorčič’s street (behind the former Punta hotel) and then to lower part of the Square of 1st May and Verdi’s street. The entire Tartini’s square and the area up to Ulica Svobode and Tomšič’s street would be under water…”
11 Nataša Kolega, 2006: Ogroženost slovenske obale zaradi morskih poplav, Slovenian coast sea floods risk in Acta geographica Slovenica, 46-2, 2006, 143-169.
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A more precise list of threatened areas, according to our findings, is shown below.
Areas of the coastal subregion within 1 meter flooding threat Urban areas: − Residential areas - coastal part of settlement of Ankaran, coastal part in the west side of the town of Izola (Fig. 20), part of settlement of Strunjan and Strunjan bay, historic centre of town of Piran (Fig. 19). − Service areas - coastal part of settlement of Ankaran, Bonifika area in Koper (sport, retail, education), Piran town centre, sport centre in Portorož (Lucija). − Natural and cultural heritage - salt works in Strunjan, Škocjanski zatok (Škocjan backwaters) nature protection area, historic centre of the town of Piran, salt works in Sečovlje.
Figure 19: Possible consequences of 1 m sea level rise on the central (historical) part of the town of Piran.
Areas important for economic activities: − Tourism - marine in the town of Izola with wider hinterland, coastal area in the settlement of Jagodje near Izola, bigger part of the settlement of Strunjan with hotels and camping facilities, historic centre of the town of Piran, line of hotels in the coastal area of the settlement of Portorož, beaches in Portorož, marine in Portorož. − Industry - industrial area in the town of Koper near Semedela channel, part of Delamaris cannery in Izola.
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Figure 20: Possible consequences of 1 m sea level rise on the central (historical) part of the town of Izola.
Infrastructure: − Railway - a part of railway, especially in the Port of Koper. − Airport - Portorož airport, service facilities and a bigger part of the airport runway. − Port and marinas - Port of Koper, bigger part of hinterland of pier II. and area north and northeast of Škocjanski zatok (Škocjan backwaters), planned new marina in Koper, marines in Izola, Piran and Portorož.
Nature protection areas: − Škocjanski zatok (Škocjan backwaters).
Cultural heritage areas − Historic centres of towns of Izola and Piran.
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Figure 21: Flooded areas of coastal sub-region in scenario of 2 meter sea level rise.
Key: 1 - Port of Koper hinterlands and Semedela area; 2 - Town of Izola; 3 - Settlement and salt works in Strunjan; 4 - Settlement of Portorož and hinterland; 5 - Salt works in Sečovlje
Areas of the coastal subregion within 2 meter flooding threat Urban areas: − Residential areas - residential areas in wider coastal part of the settlement of Ankaran, wider area near Semedela channel in the settlement of Semedela, wider coastal part on the west side of town of Izola (Fig. 23), a part of the settlement of Strunjan, wider centre of the town of Piran (Fig. 22), wider low laying part of the settlement of Portorož. − Service areas – the Valdoltra hospital complex, additional part of Bonifika area near the town of Koper, wider area near the Semedela channel in the settlement of Semedela, centre of the town of Piran, wider low laying part of the settlement of Portorož. − Cultural heritage - additional part of the historic centre of the town of Piran;
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Areas of economic importance: − Agriculture - low laying agriculture areas near Strunjan. − Tourism - hotels in Ankaran, planned passenger terminal in Koper, marine in Izola, wider centre of Piran, wider low laying part of Portorož, marine in Portorož. − Industry - industrial area near Semedela channel, shipbuilding yard in Izola.
Figure 22: Possible consequences of 2 m sea level rise on the central (historical) part of the town of Piran.
Infrastructure: − Basic infrastructure - water treatment plant in Koper. − Roads - from Izola to Piran in Strunjan, wider low laying area in Portorož with the main road trough the town, the road toward border crossing point with Croatia near Dragonja river. − Railway - bigger part of the rails in the Port of Koper. − Airport - whole Portorož Airport area. − Port of Koper and marinas - bigger part of pier I. and II. with their hinterlands, planned passenger terminal in Koper, planned new marina in Koper, marinas in Izola, Piran and Portorož.
Nature protection areas − Škocjanski zatok (Škocjan backwaters).
Cultural heritage areas − Historic centres of towns of Koper, Izola and Piran.
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Figure 23: Possible consequences of 2 m sea level rise on the central (historical) part of the town of Izola.
An approximate calculation of owner type was made, according to endangered areas (Fig. 24).
Figure 24: Land ownership of flood endangered areas in 1 and 2 meter sea level change scenario.
Nature protection areas − Škocjanski zatok (Škocjan backwaters).
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Cultural heritage areas − Historic centres of towns of Koper, Izola and Piran.
3.3.3 Predicted consequences of sea level rise on the Municipality of Koper
3.3.3.1 Future spatial development characteristics of the Municipality of Koper Like the whole coastal subregion, the Municipality of Koper is experiencing intensive economic development as well. This is among other reflected in several ambitious projects with considerable potential impacts on land use and environment. The projects include f. ex. extension of the existing and construction of a new pier in the Port of Koper, construction of transport infrastructure – new coastal high-speed road, new railway tracks, harbour for sea-passenger transport. Some of the projects are already reflected in the municipal spatial development documents, which are summarized in the subsequent text in the form of proposed development areas.
Spatial development in the Municipality of Koper is, due to the presence of the Port of Koper, currently strongly influenced by global economic trends. It can be presupposed that this situation will continue also in the future, and that pressures and decisions about land uses will follow the processes at the European and global scale.
Residential use (planned) For predominantly residential use development will be focused on the following areas: − New development: Ankaran, Žusterna, Prade, Semedela, Škofije, Hrvatini, Vanganelska dolina. − Renewal: historic town centre of Koper and its close surrounding. − Fillings: Dekani, Škofije, other rural areas. − New development and renovation as individual residential typology: hinterlands and rural areas.
Industrial use (planned) For industrial use development will be focused on: − Industrial development centre in the industrial zone between Port of Koper, Ankaran road, and railway in connection with Port of Koper. − Industrial area of Iplas, Lama, dairy and cold store by Ankaran crossroad with further extensions. − Existing industrial area of Tomos and Cimos. − Industrial area near river Badaševica.
Tourism, sport and recreation Area between settlements of Ankaran and Lazaret will be dedicated for development of the holiday centre Debeli rtič for foreign and domestic needs, youth and student centre and the existing hotel complex Adria Ankaran.
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A smaller tourist centre will be formed in the area of Žusterna.
For beach and swimming facilities, the coast from hotel Adria to Lazaret and from Žusterna to Ruda in Izola is suitable. Natural heritage area Debeli rtič with surrounding will be designed and protected as an important recreational area.
Infrastructure - water resources − Main source is the valley of Rižana. − Other local sources.
Infrastructure - waterworks network − Regional waterworks Rižana – Koper and Kaneda – Lucija – Strunjan – Koper serves most of the municipality area.
Infrastructure - sewage system − Existing water treatment plant and sewage system: Koper, Bertoki, Dvori, Kubed, Loka, Sočerga - Lukini, Movraž, Osp, Plavje, Ankaran, Podgorje. − Planned sewage system Šmarje, Krkavče, Planjave, Koštabona, Pomjan, Mintinjan, Labor, Glem, Boršt, Kozloviči, Tršek, Topolovec, Gradin, Pregara, Trebše, Popetre, Poletiči, Smokvica, Lopar, Bernetiči, Gračišče, Dol, Hrastovlje, Praproče, Črnotiče, Kavaliči.
Infrastructure - waste treatment: − Dumping ground Dvori.
Natural and cultural heritage areas − Karst regional park (proposed). − Landscape park Dragonja (proposed). − Natural resort Škocjanski zatok (Škocjan backwaters). − Natural resort by Koper (proposed). − Natural heritage areas: cliff between Debeli rtič and hospital Valdoltra, cliff near the road Koper - Izola, river Rižana, landscape of the Karst edge, landscape of the continental Istra.
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3.3.3.2 Spatial impacts of the sea level rise on the Municipality of Koper As mentioned above, in the Municipality of Koper following areas are under direct flood threat in case of 1 meter sea level rise: − Coastal area of the settlement of Ankaran with hotels, camp and housing. − Port of Koper dock II hinterland, with mainly industrial and farming uses. − Area, spreading from Škocjanski zatok (Škocjan backwaters) to hill Srmin, east of the Koper city, covering storage buildings of the Port of Koper, other industrial uses, new shopping centres north of Škocjanski zatok (Škocjan backwaters), post office building, Koper passenger railway station and nature protected area of Škocjanski zatok (Škocjan backwaters) − Bonifika area between the town of Koper and the main coastal road with a market place, school, sport hall, stadium and outdoor sport fields, shopping centres, hotels, office buildings etc.
Figure 25: Flooded areas of Municipality of Koper in scenario of 1 meter sea level rise Key: 1 - Settlement of Ankaran; 2 - Port of Koper hinterland; 3 - Škocjanski zatok; 4 - Bonifika in Koper
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Figure 26: Possible consequences of 1 m sea level rise on the central (historical) part of the town of Koper and on the port of Koper.
Additional areas, flooded in case of 2 meter sea level change are: − Other areas of the settlement of Ankaran, including medical centre Valdoltra and additional residential areas in the Ankaran coastal area. − Wider background of pier I and II of the Port of Koper with all existing infrastructure, warehouses, roads and rails. − Area east of the town of Koper with residential and office buildings, planned passenger terminal of the Port of Koper, most of the Bonifika area with all public utilities infrastructure. − Industrial and commercial area Tomos and Cimos near the settlement of Semedela up to lower laying residential area of Semedela, including the main coastal road.
To imagine the full extent of damage, flood risk areas were compared with the current and planned land use in the Municipality of Koper. Results are presented in Figure 29.
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Figure 27: Additional flooded areas of Municipality of Koper in scenario of 2 meter sea level rise
Key: 1 - Settlement of Ankaran; 2 - Port of Koper hinterland; 3 - Bonifika in Koper; 4 - Industrial area in Koper near Semedela channel.
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Figure 28: Possible consequences of 2 m sea level rise on the central (historical) part of the town of Koper and on the port of Koper.
Figure 29: Municipality of Koper planned land use and flood risk areas, source: Municipality of Koper, Slovenia.
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3.3.4 Conclusion As can be seen, the survey of endangered areas includes most of the important economic and infrastructural facilities and residential areas of the subregion and of the Municipality of Koper. It affects the largest urban coastal areas as well as areas, where future growth will be concentrating. Development projects are not considering the possible sea level change as a serious threat for now. Protective measures are not included in projects and calculated in overall costs. This kind of behaviour and performance could lead to: damage of coastal protection works, potential loss of life, increased loss of property. Furthermore it could lead also to loss of renewable and subsistence resources, loss of tourism and recreation facilities.
Especially worrying is the impact on non-monetary natural and cultural resources and values like coastal habitats, nature protection areas and cultural heritage buildings and areas, which will not be able to adapt to new environmental conditions. It could be expected that there will be high impacts on agriculture and aquaculture through decline in soil and water quality. Economically and technically demanding solutions could mitigate the consequences in some cases, but a general adaptation strategy for the whole subregion should be prepared.
Some consequences of the sea level rise could be minimized by technical solutions (embankments, raising of ground level with additional material), but especially in the extreme scenario, the basic layout of urban areas will have to be adapted to this huge, but predictable change of the coastal areas.
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4. CURRENT ADAPTATION STRATEGIES AND MEASURES
4.1 Assessment of current Strategies and Measures
4.1.1 Current strategies and measures at the national level At the national level, Slovenia’s Fourth National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change12 (in subsequent text Communication) represent at the present the most comprehensive document, in which national circumstances, policies and measures, vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures are presented. The Communication contains information on the actions taken by Slovenia to meet its obligations under United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Communication incorporates also information from other relevant documents such as Action Plans for Reducing GHG Emissions.
Communication comprises measures included in The Action Plan for Reducing GHG Emissions (Action Plan). The Action Plan was adopted by the Slovenian Government in July 2003 and amended in 2004. It contains 22 instruments for carrying out measures which cover all sources of GHGs, energy, transport, agriculture, waste and industrial processes. The majority of the instruments stem from adapting to the legal framework of the EU during Slovenia’s accession process, and from implementation of the European Common and Coordinated Policies and Measures (CCPM).
The most important measures in the Action Plan are: − Switching from coal and liquid fuels to natural gas (instruments: opening of the electricity and
natural gas market, emissions trading, CO2 tax). − Increasing the proportion of renewable energy sources (RES) and cogeneration of electrical energy
(instruments: feed-in tariffs, CO2 tax). − Implementation of the efficient energy use (EEU) measures with regard to buildings, households, industry and the public sector (instruments: IPPC, emissions trading, regulations, public awareness, financial incentives).
− Increasing the proportion of RES in consumption of final energy (instruments: CO2 tax, financial incentives, public awareness).
− Improving energy efficiency of vehicles (instruments: informing consumers about the CO2 emission of motor vehicles and the Agreement between the European Commission and Car Manufacturers, regular vehicle inspections, public awareness). − Increasing the use of public transport (instruments: changes in the public transport system, public awareness). − Rehabilitation of existing and construction of new urban landfills (instrument: regulations). − Reducing the quantity of deposited waste (instruments: separate collection of waste, material consumption and incineration of waste).
12 Ministry of the Environment and Spatial Planning, 2006, Slovenia’s Fourth National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Ljubljana, Slovenia, (http://www.mop.gov.si/fileadmin/mop.gov.si/pageuploads/publikacije/drugo/en/4_drzavno_porocilo_en.pdf).
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− An audit of the Action Plan will be performed in 2006. − Objectives and measures affecting the decrease in GHG emissions are included in individual sector programmes (Resolution on the National Energy Programme, Resolution on Traffic Policy, Slovenia’s Rural Development Programme for the period 2004–2006, Action Plan for treatment of packaging and packaging waste, Action Plan for waste removal with the objective of decreasing the amount of biodegradable waste) and Resolution on the National Programme of Environmental Protection for the period 2005–2012, which defined a reduction in GHG emissions as the top priority of the environmental policy.
Among the programme documents an important place is occupied by the Resolution on the National Programme of Environmental Protection for the Period 2005–2012 (ReNVPO), which was adopted in November 2005 and is the basic strategic document in the area of environmental protection. For the area of climate change the following goals are important: emphasise climate change as a major challenge in the coming years and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, and in this way contribute to the long-term goal of stabilising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, waste management and the use of renewable and non-renewable natural resources, which permit sustainable production and consumption, and contribute to reducing environmental pollution and energy consumption in such a way that does not exceed the carrying capacity of the environment.
The goals and measures that contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions are included in sectoral programmes. Pursuant to the Energy Act this is a compulsory component of energy policy, and this was also accommodated in the Resolution on the National Energy Programme (Official Gazette of the Republic of Slovenia 57/04) (ReNEP), which sets out the following goals: 1. Increasing the efficiency of energy use by 10 % up to 2010 relative to 2004 in industry and the service sector, in the public sector by 15 %, in buildings by 10 %, and in transport by 10 %; a doubling of the proportion of electrical energy from cogeneration from 2000 to 2010. 2. Increasing the share of renewable energy sources in the primary energy balance from 8.8 % in 2001 to 12 % by 2010, in supplying heat from 22 % in 2002 to 25 % in 2010, electrical energy from RES from 32 % in 2002 to 33.6 % in 2010, reaching a 2 % share of biofuels in transport by the end of 2005.
As regards vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures, Communication summarize the results of a project entitled Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry to Climate Change which was concluded in 2003. In the mentioned project it was established that: − The effects of the changed climate on food production will be positive (fertilising effect of CO2, longer vegetation period and potential for heat-loving plants), conditionally positive (movement of locations of agricultural production, change in produce quality, changed species selection and changing agrotechnical practices), and negative (shortening of growing period, increased intensity of evapotranspiration, higher frequency of extreme weather conditions and changes in attacks of pests and diseases). Negative effects will prevail. − Climate change will also affect animal husbandry, indirectly (feeding stuffs) and directly (higher temperatures, storm and weather damage). Negative effects will prevail.
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− Increased temperature, higher frequency of extreme weather conditions and more frequent attacks of diseases and pests will affect forest ecosystems as well. − The vulnerability of water sources, which are already highly vulnerable, will increase.
Within the framework of the project, adaptation measures were identified with respect to the anticipated changes in the field of agriculture and forestry. However considering the fact that the mentioned sectors are not dealt with in the pilot study they are not will not be presented13.
In 2005, a project entitled Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change was introduced at the Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia (ARSO) in which it was planed to include all areas affected by climate change, e.g. energy, tourism, health, transport etc., at the national and regional levels. The main stages of the project are vulnerability assessment, adaptation abilities assessment, and defining the range of potential adaptations measures. The mentioned project is – at the time of writing – not yet concluded. It has produced an intermediate report »Živeti s podnebnimi spremembami (Living with climate change)« (Cegnar, T. et al., 2006) in which climate diversity of Slovenia was described.
In 2006, Ministry of the environment and spatial planning of the Republic of Slovenia adopted new Action Plan for Reducing GHG Emissions till 201214 (in subsequent text Plan 2012). In the concluding chapter »Vulnerability and adaptation of Slovenia to climate change« it has been stated that the Slovenian coastal area will be endangered by sea level rise as well as by the rise of the sea water temperature and by biochemical changes which consecutively will have deteriorate influences on sea plants and animals. Sea level rise is, beside global warming, one of the most certain consequences of climate change. Plan 2012 states that the potential sea level rise is taken into consideration in the construction of port infrastructure in the Port of Koper. It points also to the need to pay regard to this issue in spatial planning and management of the rest of the Slovenian coast. Special attention has to be given to planning of discharging of rivers, rain and waste waters into the sea. Plan 2012 stresses the need for inclusion of mentioned issues in the preparation of new spatial plans and to safeguard the present infrastructure which will be endangered by high tide water. More attention should be given to forecast service for predicting high sea level.
In 2002 Ministry of defence, The Administration of the RS for Civil Protection and Disaster Relief, made public The National programme of protection against natural and other disasters15 (in subsequent text National programme). The National programme is predominantly prevention oriented and considers all natural hazards – among other seacoast flooding – that endanger people, animals,
13 (for more information see: http://www.mop.gov.si/fileadmin/mop.gov.si/pageuploads/publikacije/drugo/en/4_drzavno_ porocilo_en.pdf p. 100). 14 Ministry of the environment and spatial planning, 2006, The Action Plan for Reducing GHG Emissions till 2012, Ljubljana, Slovenia (http://www.mop.gov.si/fileadmin/mop.gov.si/pageuploads/zakonodaja/okolje/varstvo_okolja/operativni_programi/op_toplog redni_plini2012.pdf). 15 NPVNDN (2002). Nacionalni program varstva pred naravnimi in drugimi nesrečami (National Programme for Protection Against Natural and Other Disasters). Ur. list RS, št. 44/02 (http://www.sos112.si/db/priloga/p124.pdf).
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property, cultural heritage and the environment. Seacoast flooding threats are presented in general terms resulting from the description of past events and experiences. It is mentioned that the sea level could rise for more than 100 cm and flood lower lying offshore plains. In the National programme it is also stated that seacoast flooding occurs several times per year, especially in the town of Piran.
The National programme does not elaborate concrete adaptation strategies and measures on specific issues. Its main objective is to prevent, eliminate or reduce safety risks. Prevention is primarily directed to the sources of hazard. Its objective is primarily to prevent hazard, and to eliminate or at least reduce the existing hazards. Fundamental prevention measures should be implemented by competent ministries, local communities and economic companies, institutes and other organizations. Hazard assessment must be taken into account during planning and implementation of spatial plans and considered in design and construction. Hence, instruments of spatial planning can be applied to ensure that new spatial activities are directed outside risk areas. In order to reduce the risk, regulations in the field of spatial planning should be adjusted as well (quoted from B. Đurović and M. Mikoš, 2005)16. Basic guidelines are very general and none of them is concerned with the sea flooding issues.
4.1.2 Assessment of current strategies and measures at the regional level Adaptation strategies and measures do not exist at the regional level, that is for the Obalno-kraška region. Climate change problems, especially those related with the potential sea level rise in the subregion, consisting of the coastal municipalities of Koper, Izola, Piran, and tin he Municipality of Koper, are mentioned in the analytical part of the Regional Development Programme 2007-201317.
In the mentioned document it is stated that according to global forecasts, lower lying urban areas of the Slovenian coast, that is the towns of Koper, Izola, Piran and Portorož, are expected to be more vulnerable to flooding in the next 100 years. The probability of extended flooding is greater in those areas which are now yearly flooded by the sea.
Sea level rise and see flooding issues are not further elaborated in adequate adaptation policies and measures.
4.1.3 Assessment of current strategies and measures at the local level Explicit adaptation strategies and measures to climate change impacts do not exist at the local level either. In the Municipality of Koper, the Programme for protection against natural and other disasters18 (in subsequent text Programme) for the period 2006-2010 has been prepared recently. The Programme is short-term oriented and defines goals, guidelines and strategy of protection against disasters. The
16 B. Đurović and M. Mikoš, 2005, Preventive management of risks due to natural hazards procedures in the Alpine countries and in Slovenia, Acta hydrotechnica 22/36 (2004), 17-35, Ljubljana, Slovenia (ftp://ksh.fgg.uni-lj.si/acta/a36bd.pdf). 17 Regionalni razvojni center Koper, 2006, Ekonomska, socialna in okoljska analiza stanja za Regionalni razvojni program Južne Primorske, in Regionalni razvojni program Južne Primorske 2007-2013, Koper, Slovenia (http://www.rrc- kp.si/files/Analiza%20stanja-17.7.06.pdf). 18 Mestna občina Koper, 2006, Programme for protection against natural and other disasters 2006-2010, Koper, Slovenia.
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Programme identifies main threats which could overgrow in disasters. These threats are: fires, accidents involving dangerous substances, floods and earthquakes.
Considering flooding issues, the Programme states that the most endagered areas are the lower lying areas in the town of Koper (Ukmarjev trg, stara Semedelska, cesta Koper-Izola) and part of harbour areas in the Port of Koper. Newer and more detailed maps of flood areas for the Municipality and town of Koper have not yet been produced. The latest map was prepared by Hidro Koper in 1997 (Fig. 30).
As mentioned before, the risk of flooding is highest in the areas of offshore plains and depressions around the mouths of the rivers Rižana and Badaševica on the condition of high tide presence which prevents the river outflow into the sea. These are first of all Bonifika of Semedela and Ankaran through which culvert and drainage channels run, into which rain water from the larger area is drained. Water from the channels is afterwards being pumped into the sea. The Programme states that flooding of the mentioned offshore plains is possible under three circumstances: breaking-up of dykes, sea water pressure into the rear areas under the condition of high tide, and high rain water inflow caused by heavy rains in the hinterland, which is characterised by steep slopes and hilly streams. Special problem on both offshore plains relates to the decrepit of stable pumps, which could break down under the conditions of excessive loading. This could result in flooding of the entire depression areas.
Figure 30: Flooding areas in the Municipality of Koper – Floods with 50-year recurrence and more. Source: GIS Ujme, URSZR (Administration of RS for Civil Protection and Disaster Relief), 1997.
The Programme includes guidelines for reducing the risk from flooding. The following measures are envisaged: 1. Preparation of more precise and up-to-date maps of the flooding areas and completion of the present vulnerability assessment of the Municipality of Koper.
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2. Ensuring regular maintenance of all water infrastructures, that is facilities, installations or structures intended for the special use of water or marine assets, in particular pumping sites, dams, outflow and inflow channels, including facilities or installations intended for direct protection against the adverse effects of water. 3. Winning areas should be equipped with additional pumps which assure continuous performance of the winning areas also in the case of the absence of electric power. 4. Consistent setting of high water torrents and maintenance and construction of rain water sewage system.
Figure 31: Flooding areas in the Municipality of Koper Source: Hidro Koper, 1997
In the Programme, the importance of reducing vulnerability to flooding is stressed as well. General guidelines are suggested. Their main emphasis is to consider flooding areas in physical planning and construction. In the case of higher probability of flooding, construction should be prohibited or relocated to higher altitudes.
The Programme entails also guidelines, aimed at enhancing preparedness for flooding events, consisting of the following measures: 1. Owners and stakeholders on the endangered areas are informed about the threats. 2. Establish comprehensive and efficient monitoring, public communication and alarming system in the case of flooding threats. 3. Periodical checking of the protection and rescue plan in case of flooding and maintaining the adequate level of readiness of all services.
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4.2 Conclusions In Slovenia, no specific long-term adaptation strategies and measures to predicted climate change impacts exist at any of the different territorial levels, that is national, regional and local level. Therefore, no adaptation instruments are provided for sea level rise, tides and surges either.
Strategies for adapting to sea level rise are, on the other hand, well documented. Development of adaptation strategies for coastal systems has been encouraged by an increase in public and scientific awareness of the threat of climate change to coastlines. Hopefully Slovenia will soon adopt the approach of developing detailed shoreline management plans that link adaptation measures with shoreline defence, accommodation and retreat strategies.
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5. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES AND MEASURES
5.1 Climate change adaptation options in coastal urban areas
5.1.1 Future trends of vulnerability to climate change
In the context of urban and semi-urban areas the vulnerability is mainly related to the exposure of people, settlements and economic activities to the consequences of climate change. Vulnerability is determined by the extent of the threat, damage potential and the ability to react to and/or to withstand it, i.e. by the adaptive and/or coping capacity of the society (ESPON 1.3.1, 2006)19. Although the extreme events until now have not increased significantly in magnitude, the damages worldwide have increased exponentially, which suggests that the extent of disasters depends more on the receptor areas, that is damage potential and adaptive or coping capacity, than on the hazard itself (ESPON 1.3.1, 2006).
The coping range shows, how a system or an activity copes with, i.e. how it responds to climate risk (UNDP, 2004)20. If a system moves beyond its coping range, the level of harm suffered can threaten sustainability in a number of ways: people may suffer through loss of livelihood, injury or death, activities could cease etc. Coping range depends on: − Access to technology and financial resources − (In) dependency of an activity on climate − Economic diversification − State of the environment − Other, climate unrelated, events that harm the system − History of adaptations.
Economic development increases economic vulnerability due to higher damage potential, but it also reduces social vulnerability. This however depends not only on accumulation, but also on the distribution of wealth: socially balanced economic development reduces social vulnerability. This rule also applies in spatial terms: spatially balanced development is generally less vulnerable to hazards than the concentration of population and productivity around single growth poles. A polycentric, spatially and socially balanced economic development which takes necessary environmental precautions is beneficial for the reduction of vulnerability (ESPON 1.3.1, 2006).
19 ESPON 1.3.1, 2006, The Spatial Effects and Management of Natural and Technological Hazards in Europe, Geological Survey of Finland. 20 UNDP, 2004, Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing Strategies, Policies and Measures, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
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While climate change may be a burden on developed countries, it is, at least in the coming hundred years, no threat to our societies as such (Alfsen, 2001). It is generally agreed that it is the developing countries, which will be seriously affected by climate change, while developed industrialized countries should be able to cope with it without significantly affecting their welfare (UNDP, 2004; Eriksen & Naess, 2003)21. Short term and relatively limited natural disasters may actually have positive effects on the economy. In developed countries, the reasons for economic stagnation are often not on the supply, but on the demand side. Damages, caused by disasters such as flooding, storms or landslides, may increase demand and enliven especially the construction industry. Nevertheless, damages from natural hazards are certainly important and represent a significant drag on development, especially considered from the viewpoint of individual regions, economic activities or families, for whom the effects of climate changes can present threats beyond their coping range.
An agreed assumption states that in the future the alpine area will face several challenges related to climate change, such as: − Increased mean temperatures, higher extremes, heat waves and related effects on human comfort, including worsened symptoms of disease, reduced productivity, an increase of the probability of accidents at work and road accidents, worsened air quality due to more days with temperature inversion, spread of infective disease, increased allergenic burdens. − Drought/water scarcity. − Extreme events and natural hazards: flooding, landslides and rock falls, causing damages and losses as well as psychological pressure in settled areas, and may stimulate depopulation of the most endangered areas. − Sea level rise, storm surges, coastal flooding.
These events would increase vulnerability assuming all other factors stay equal. However, it is reasonable to assume that several trends in socio-economic development will also affect the vulnerability in negative and positive way. The damage potential will increase along with the GDP growth and introduction of precarious technologies. Coping capacity will be improved by some of the trends: increase of GDP, depopulation in remote rural areas, new technologies in energy production and use, building techniques, delivering public services, engineering for flood protection, and increase in the use of ICT, increased integration and cross-border, cross-sectoral cooperation. On the other hand, several trends will decrease coping capacity: ageing of population, smaller households with more single person households, migrations, concentration of the population in peri-urban areas,
21 Eriksen, S., Naess, L.O., 2003, Pro-poor climate adaptation (Norwegian development cooperation and climate change adaptation: An assessment of issues, strategies and potential entry points), CICERO, Oslo.
WP 7, ACTIVITY 2 60 increased mobility to work, to services and for leisure, increase of transalpine transit, privatization of services and infrastructure, increased micro-territorial discrepancies.
This overview shows that without conscious effort for improvement of our coping capacity through adaptation strategies and measures, the vulnerability of alpine space to climate change may drastically increase.
5.1.2 Options for response
Generally, there are four main relationships between coping range and climate variability (UNDP, 2004): decreasing resilience, increasing resilience, suffering climate shocks and responding to climate shocks. In the first two cases, the coping capacity – and thus vulnerability – changes autonomously, independent from climate change, while in the last two in leaps, as a response to extreme events. The response of coping range to climate change depends on the adaptive capacity of the system: if this is high then the coping range will increase over time, while it will decrease in the opposite case.
The adaptive societies may react in several possible tracks when faced with threats. In the context of climate change the following three types of response can be observed: 1. Post-disaster recovery and relief. 2. Prevention, aimed at mitigation of climate change. 3. Prevention, aimed at vulnerability reduction and adaptation.
Besides, the responses can also be divided regarding the level of action: personal, organizational, and administrative (policy). The focus of our research is on strategies of vulnerability reduction and adaptation on the level of organizations and administration, that is enterprise and public policy.
Vulnerability reduction and adaptation measures traditionally highly depend on technology. The well known and prevalent examples include: irrigation in dry areas, space heating and cooling facilities, or flood risk management, protective seawalls in coastal areas to reduce losses (ESPON 1.3.1, 2006).
European Spatial Development Perspective mentions adequate consideration of potential risks in territorial development as one of the most important tools to protect humans and resources against natural disasters (ESDP, Goal 142, policy option 46, 1999, SUD 2003). Spatial planning is therefore an important track of response and should be based on the principle of integration of environmental concerns into planning measures. The possibilities include comprehensive urban environmental management plans and “evaluation of the consequences of climate change for cities so that inappropriate developments are not begun and adaptations to the new climatic conditions can be
WP 7, ACTIVITY 2 61 incorporated into the land use planning process” (Thematic strategy on the urban environment, COM 2005/718).
Type of action Post-disaster Prevention, aimed at Prevention, aimed at vulnerability recovery and relief mitigation of climate reduction and adaptation Actor change Individual Individually organized Change of patterns of Home location, building materials and financed damage living, consuming and (isolation...) repair travel Holiday and travel destination and time Health care Organizations Enterprise organized Energy saving Facility location, building materials and financed damage technology (isolation...) repair Reduction of transport Energy less dependent technology Adaptation of product/market strategy (choice of agricultural products, type of tourism offer...) Administration Nationally/regionally Energy policy (renewable Land-use planning /municipally organized energies, reduction of Conservation of natural areas and financed damage energy use) Urban planning (low building density, repair, financial help Transport policy (public protection of wind corridors, infiltration for affected transport) surfaces), families/enterprises Introducing CO2 Technical measures, i.e. flood dykes reduction measures in all Water saving measures, planning and sectoral policies providing water supply Introducing criteria of climate adaptation in financial instruments Table 6: Types of potential responses of different actors
Despite the ever present discourse of climate change, the existing policies are characterized by relative inertness and ineffectiveness (Alfsen, 2001)22. The reasons for such situation include: − Perception gap: climate change is still not perceived as an imminent threat for our livelihoods, due to uncertainty of forecasts: where, when, how big the consequences may be. − Pressure of other interest groups on decision makers. − Lack of consideration of subsidiarity principle and individual responsibility.
The adaptation measures to be designed and applied should therefore consider and try to creatively overcome these restrictions.
22 Alfsen, Knut H., 2001, Climate change and sustainability in Europe. Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, http://www.cicero.uio.no/media/1436.pdf.
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5.1.3 Spatial planning response options to sea level rise
As is evident from previous chapters, estimates of the future sea level rise produced by different authors and organisations do not offer completely relevant basis for planning purposes. The range of estimates is large, partly because of uncertainties in the current scientific knowledge of this issue, and partly because of different estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions. Planners would ideally like a projection of a particular sea level rise to be associated with a certain probability. It is not useful for planners if the entire range of predicted sea level rise is assumed to be equally probable (Walsh, K.J.E. et al., 2004)23. In any event, this cannot be the case, since the range is due to a combination of component ranges of uncertainty, and thus the extremes of this range must be less probable than the central estimate (Jones, 2001)24. The various scenarios are constructed using very different postulated future world economic and social conditions to arrive at a selection of “storylines”. When these storylines were constructed it was explicitly stated that no probabilities could be attached to any of them; in other words that no statement could be made regarding the likelihood of future world conditions actually resembling any of storylines. For planners, this causes a difficult situation, as the projections of future climate made by general circulation models (GCMs) using SRES scenarios differ considerably between storylines by the end of the 21st century (Walsh, K.J.E. et al., 2004).
Within this study it has, for a number of reasons, not been possible to use certain recent approaches and methods aimed at resolving the problem of estimations of sea level rise impacts. Let us mention some of them: risk assessment based upon the estimated probability of various levels of sea level rise (Jones, 2001); methods which combine a probability distribution of sea level rise with detailed information on the vulnerability of infrastructure leading to a cost-benefit analysis of the cost of regulation versus the benefits or reducing damage (Abbs, D. J. et al., 2000)25, Delphic Monte Carlo Analysis – method for combining projections of future global sea level with local changes in sea level due to land subsidence and other relevant factors (Titus, J.G. and Narayanan, V.K., 1995)26.
23 Walsh, K.J.E. et al., 2004, Using Sea Level Rise Projections for Urban Planning, Journal of Coastal Research, Vol. 20, No. 2, 586-598, West Palm Beach, Florida, USA. 24 Jones, R.N., 2001, An environmental risk assessment management framework for climate change impact assessments, Natural Hazards, 23, 197-230. 25 Abbs, D. J., Maheepala, S., McInnes, K. L., Mitchell, G., Shipton, B., and Trinidad, G. (2000). Climate change, urban flooding and infrastructure. In: Hydro 2000: 3rd International Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium of the Institution of Engineers, Australia: proceedings, Perth, W.A. (National Conference Publication (Institution of Engineers, Australia), no. 2000) . Barton, A.C.T.: Institution of Engineers, Australia. p. 686-691. 26 Titus, J.G. and Narayanan, V.K., 1995, The Probability of Sea Level Rise, EPA 230-R-95-008, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., 186p, http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/downloads/risk_of_rise.pdf
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Responses to sea level rise can generally be classified into a series of human adjustments that can be used to identify potential effects on beach and dune resources (Nordstrom, 2000)27. Titus (1990, 1991)28 gives the following classification system for management strategies (Fig. 32): 1. Accommodation / no protection 2. Protection, e.g. levee or sea wall 3. Adaptation, e.g. island rising 4. Retreat.
For urban areas, accommodation or abandonment is generally not a viable option, as the cost of infrastructure to be abandoned is often too high. An exception is low-lying urban areas containing little infrastructure.
Figure 32: Responses to sea level rise for developed barrier islands.
27 Nordstrom, K.F., 2000, Beaches and Dunes of Developed Coasts, Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 338p., http://assets.cambridge.org/97805215/45761/frontmatter/9780521545761_frontmatter.pdf 28 Titus, J.G., 1990, Greenhouse effect, sea level rise, and barrier islands: case study of Long Beach Island, New Jersey, Coastal Management, 18, 65-90. http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/UniqueKeyLookup/SHSU5BNJTL/$File/barrier_islands.pdf. Titus, J.G., 1991, Greenhouse effect, sea level rise: The cost of holding back the sea, Coastal Management, 19, 171-204. http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/UniqueKeyLookup/SHSU5BPPAL/$File/cost_of_holding.pdf.
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Protection has the advantage that it does not require major institutional changes regarding land use. For example, a beach could still be maintained by artificial nourishment, the placing on the beach of sand obtained elsewhere. This strategy is costly and depends upon a ready supply of sand, which may not be available for all locations. Because of the cost of this process and the limited supply of sand for nourishment, urban planners could be faced with some hard choices regarding the future of urban beaches in the areas where the mean sea level is rising.
Alternatively sea wall construction can represent another feasible option but the cost for construction and maintenance are usually very high depending on exposure to wave action (Neumann and Livesay, 2001)29. For aesthetic and amenity reasons in vulnerable urban areas, a combination of sea wall construction and beach nourishment may be necessary. Timelines for the construction of protection works need to be carefully considered. Postponing protection works until the decade when they are needed could save costs of an order of magnitude (Yohe et al., 1999)30. Strategies to deal with sea level rise must be local because of the very heterogeneous nature of the coastline (Neumann and Livesay, 2001). Sea walls in tourism areas may well protect beach-front infrastructure but reduce the attractiveness and viability of the area as a resort.
Island (peninsula) rising involves putting sand on the beach, as well as raising the nearby buildings and support infrastructure. Advantages of this strategy include that no one is prohibited from building and rebuilding, and the government does not have to buy property (Titus, 1990). Disadvantages include the cost and environmental problems in dredged areas, from which the sand and fill material would have to be extracted.
For the developed urban areas in the long term, managed retreat may need to be considered, as other strategies will become increasingly expensive. In the medium term (decades), urban beaches will need beach re-nourishment and associated holding structures such as sea walls. Changes in storm and wave climatology are crucial factors for determining future coastal erosion (see Walsh, K.J.E. et al., 2004, Titus, J.G, 1990, 1991).
29 Neumann, J.E. and Livesay, N.D., 2001, Coastal structures, dynamic economic modeling. In: Mendelsohn, R. (ed.), Global warming and the American economy, a regional assessment of climate change impacts, Cheltenham, U.K.: Edwar Elgar, pp. 132-148. 30 Yohe et al., 1999, The economic damage induced by sea level rise in the U.S.. In: Mendelshon, R. And Neumann, J. (eds.)The Impact of Climate Change on the U.S. Economy. Camridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 178-208.
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5.2 Climate change adaptation options for the coastal subregion and Municipality of Koper
5.2.1 Introduction
Awareness of the importance of climate change issues and of the need to mitigate and adapt to them is very low in the Obalno-kraška region, coastal subregion and in the Municipality of Koper. Low level of awareness and consciousness relates to different stakeholders, from general public to representatives of municipalities, enterprises and NGO`s. It resulted in a lack of opportunity to discuss and complement the model region study results with a wider stakeholder group views, ideas, beliefs. Recommendations for future adaptation strategies and measures in the Municipality of Koper, which are presented here, are therefore the result of work of team members.
The recommendations were thus prepared taking “a view from the outside”, but also without any pressure, which could arise for example if the adaptation measure proposals went against strong land use or other interests. In the following potential adaptation oriented measures at the national, regional and local level are presented.
5.2.2 Practical policy recommendations for future adaptation strategies and measures
5.2.2.1 National level
At the national level, the following measures should be adopted: 1. Awareness rising of general public and different stakeholders regarding climate changes issues and implementation of mitigation and adaptation measures. 2. Amendments to legislation: spatial planning act, environment protection act, nature conservation act etc. 3. Preparation of new spatial documents, which would take due consideration of predictable changes and threats coming from climate changes at all territorial levels – national, regional and local. This means preparation of new, or complementing of the existing: − Spatial development strategy of Slovenia − Regional spatial plans for all NUTS III regions − Municipal spatial plans − Local detailed plans where needed. 4. Re-evaluation of the non climate-proof development projects adopted in current plans. 5. Re-evaluation of the current nature protected areas.
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5.2.2.2 Regional level and the level of the subregion
At the regional and subregional level, that is for the coastal municipalities of Koper, Izola and Piran, the following measures should be adopted: 1. Preparation of vulnerability assessment study – communities exposed to greater risk of flooding and other risks must be identified, and strategies developed to minimise potential damage and disruption. 2. Inclusion of accommodation, protection, adaptation and retreat guidelines and measures in the regional spatial plan of the Obalno-kraška region and the sub region. 3. Inclusion of mentioned guidelines and measures in the municipal spatial plans.
5.2.2.3 Local level – level of the Municipality of Koper
At the local level, the following measures should be adopted: 1. Preparation of a detailed vulnerability assessment study, which will pay regard to all current and future developmental projects of local, regional and national interest on the municipal territory. These projects include among other construction of new planned »coastal« high speed road, expansion of the Port of Koper and the construction of the 3rd pier, construction of new business buildings in flooding areas etc. 2. Preparation of a vision and comprehensive development strategy, which will horizontally include climate changes issues, guidelines and measures in all components of the strategy. 3. Preparation of a new long term spatial development concept and municipal spatial plan, in which present and expected land use conflicts will be resolved also in the light of the projected impacts of climate change. This includes for example future development of the Port of Koper, tourism development, nature protection and protection of cultural heritage. 4. Preparation of a new municipal spatial order with the aim to determine land use areas, to specify the conditions and criteria for spatial planning and preparation of local detailed plans, design criteria and construction provisions, taking into account the expected climate change impacts.
5.2.3 Practical specific recommendations for future adaptation strategies and measures
Low level of awareness of the general public and the representatives of the Municipality of Koper, local enterprises and other institutions regarding possible impacts of climate changes and the urgency to prepare vulnerability assessments and to subsequently adopt appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures is, among other, probably also a consequence of the fact, that in the recent past no large scale or very intense natural disasters occured.
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The recommendation in this regard would be that extensive awareness rising campaigns would be needed. In their course, the general public and different target groups would be systematically informed about the past and potential future hazards and their influences in the Municipality of Koper, coastal subregion and neighbouring regions and towns on the Croatian and Italian coast of the Upper Adriatic Sea. Information about climate change and its impacts in general should also be provided, as well as examples of responses and best practices. The campaigns should be carried out in a modern, planned, organized and professional manner with the application of modern visual communication. In this respect the active role of the state, that is the responsible ministries, is crucial.
The Slovenian state is, on the other hand, also planning to design and implement some major projects which will have important territorial and environmental impacts for the Municipality of Koper. These projects are the following: 1. “Coastal” high speed road 2. Construction of the 3rd pier of the Port of Koper 3. Construction of a Slovenian Adriatic Island31.
The potential sea level rise which will have negative influences on different current spatial systems, will have negative influences on abovementioned planned projects as well. For a deeper insight into the problematic referred to, a detailed vulnerability assessment is needed.
Moreover, the process of realization of the mentioned projects could create an opportunity for an open debate about strengths and opportunities, as well as weaknesses and threats of their implementation in the context of global climate change. This situation represents also an opportunity to carry out a first climate change impact assessment in Slovenia, which shall provide information about the potential problems and assess sensitivity, biophysical and socio-economic impacts, adjustments and adaptation strategies (Fig. 33).
31 The purpose of the construction of an artificial island is to concentrate the benefits arising from the solution to problems related to the depositing of gravel, together with the benefits from the construction of a major tourist attraction that will offer possibilities for relaxation, entertainment and socialising. The island, which will cover 30,000 m2, will rise at least 3 metres above sea level. The island itself will comprise a variety of tourist entertainment infrastructure divided according to thematic fields, catering facilities and an adequate pier for the transport of visitors and anchorage for private vessels. The construction of the island will provide additional bathing areas, which our coast lacks. What should be particularly emphasised is the value of such a project as an attractive sightseeing spot, since this will be the only artificial island in this part of the Adriatic and will thus surely attract a considerable number of visitors. The mentioned project is included in Resolution on National Development Projects 2007–2023. http://www.svr.gov.si/fileadmin/srs.gov.si/pageuploads/RESOLUCIJA-ang-internet.pdf.
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Figure 33: The IPCC's seven steps of climate impact assessment32.
Alternative solutions for problems addressed by the projects should also be considered. It could, for example, turn out that the gravel and other construction material which will appear as a side-product of the »coastal« high speed road tunnel excavation in the town of Koper could be – instead for constructing of an artificial island – applied for: 1. Realignment of coastal defences – construction or rising of physical barriers to flooding and coastal erosion, e.g. dikes and flood barriers. 2. Improving measures to reduce the energy of near shore waves and currents, including beach nourishment, offshore barriers, energy converters – that may also be used for renewable energy generation – and near shore morphological modifications. 3. Coastal morphological management by allowing or encouraging changes in the coastline to accommodate the forcing processes. 4. Managing the urban fabric to improve flood conveyance through built up areas. 5. Modifying morphology of the gulf of Koper and hence water levels in the gulf.
As already mentioned, for awareness rising campaigns and for making decisions about location and construction of cited major projects, the stakeholders from the Municipality of Koper, coastal subregion and the state could seek feasible operating solutions in the neighbouring regions and towns on the Croatian and Italian coast of the Upper Adriatic Sea. Some examples are provided in the following (Fig. 34 to 38).
32 Carter TR, Parry ML, Harasawa H, et al., 1994, IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations. Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
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Figure 34: Pellestrina village near Venice with its sea defence wall (Murazzo) on the right.
Figure 35: View on Pellestrina and its sea wall from the top of the wall.
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Figure 36: View on Pellestrina and its sea wall from the below of the wall.
Figure 37: View on Grado (Gradež) near Trieste and its sea wall from the top of the wall which is at the same time a promenade.
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Figure 38: View on Grado (Gradež) near Trieste and its sea wall (promenade) from below of the wall.
To contribute to the future debate and public awareness rising, photomontage images of potential realignment of coastal defences and near shore morphological modifications for the towns of Koper, Izola and Piran have been produced (Fig. 39 to 41).
Figure 39: Potential realignment of coastal defences and near shore morphological modifications in the town of Koper.
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Figure 40: Potential realignment of coastal defences and near shore morphological modifications in the town of Izola.
Figure 41: Potential realignment of coastal defences and near shore morphological modifications in the town of Piran.
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6. REFERENCES
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