WP 7, Activity 2: Development of Adaptation Measures / Spatial Change Management in Model Regions Climate change and spatial development in the Municipality of Koper: issues and potential responses Final report Mojca Golobič, Andrej Gulič, Lučka Kajfež Bogataj, Luka Mladenovič, Sergeja Praper Urban Planning Institute of RS Ljubljana, March 2008 WP 7, ACTIVITY 2 1 Table of Contents 1. Introduction & Methods ........................................................................................................... 7 1.1 Background of the model region study ................................................................................... 7 1.2 Structure and content of the report .......................................................................................... 9 2. Description of Model Region .................................................................................................10 2.1 Basic Information and Data ....................................................................................................10 2.1.1 Position of the Municipality of Koper within the wider region and Slovenia ................10 2.1.2 Position of the Municipality of Koper within the costal subregion ................................11 2.1.3 Municipality of Koper ....................................................................................................12 2.1.4 Main conclusions ............................................................................................................13 2.2 Spatial development in the Municipality of Koper and in the coastal subregion ...................14 2.2.1 Spatial characteristics of the coastal subregion ..............................................................14 2.2.2 Spatial characteristics of the Municipality of Koper ......................................................16 3. Climate Change and Corresponding Impacts .........................................................................18 3.1 Development in the 20th Century and Observed Trends in Slovenia and the Obalno-kraška region.. ................................................................................................................................................18 3.1.1 Temperature ...................................................................................................................18 3.1.2 Precipitation ...................................................................................................................22 3.1.3 Trends in other climate variables ...................................................................................24 3.1.4 Impacts of trends in climate variables ............................................................................24 3.2 Projected climate changes and impacts for Slovenia and the Obalno-kraška region .............28 3.2.1 Climate change in Slovenia and the Obalno-kraška region until end of 21st century ....28 3.2.2 Impacts of climate change in Slovenia and the Obalno-kraška region until end of 21st century..... .......................................................................................................................................31 3.3 Impacts of sea level rise on spatial development of the coastal subregion and the Municipality of Koper ........................................................................................................................35 3.3.1 Basic premises and working method ..............................................................................35 3.3.2 Predicted consequences of sea level rise on spatial development of the coastal subregion ......................................................................................................................................37 3.3.3 Predicted consequences of sea level rise on the Municipality of Koper ........................45 3.3.4 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................51 4. Current Adaptation Strategies and Measures ..........................................................................52 4.1 Assessment of current Strategies and Measures .....................................................................52 4.1.1 Current strategies and measures at the national level .....................................................52 4.1.2 Assessment of current strategies and measures at the regional level .............................55 4.1.3 Assessment of current strategies and measures at the local level ...................................55 4.2 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................58 WP 7, ACTIVITY 2 2 5. Recommendations for Future Adaptation Strategies and Measures .......................................59 5.1 Climate change adaptation options in coastal urban areas .....................................................59 5.1.1 Future trends of vulnerability to climate change ............................................................59 5.1.2 Options for response .......................................................................................................61 5.1.3 Spatial planning response options to sea level rise ........................................................63 5.2 Climate change adaptation options for the coastal subregion and Municipality of Koper .....66 5.2.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................66 5.2.2 Practical policy recommendations for future adaptation strategies and measures .........66 5.2.3 Practical specific recommendations for future adaptation strategies and measures .......67 6. REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................74 17. Geografski inštitut ZRC SAZU, (1996, 1997): Slovenija. Pokrajine in ljudje. Ljubljana ......75 21. Istrabenz, http://www.istrabenz.si (17.10.2007) .....................................................................75 24. Luka Koper, http://www.luka-kp.si (17.10.2007) ...................................................................75 28. Municipality of Koper, http://www.koper.si (9-10.10.2007) ..................................................75 29. Municipality of Izola, http://www.izola.si (17.10.2007) ........................................................75 30. Municipality of Piran, http://www.piran.si (17.10.2007) .......................................................75 35. Pečar, J. (2006): Regije 2006 – Izbrani socioekonomski dejavniki po regijah. Delovni zvezek 15/2006. Ljubljana. ................................................................................................................................76 44. Statistični urad Republike Slovenije. (2006): Statistical Yearbook. Ljubljana .......................76 WP 7, ACTIVITY 2 3 List of Tables Table 1: Size and population in the Slovenian coastal municipalities in 2005. Table 2: Network of urban centres in the coastal subregion. Table 3: Trends in average seasonal and annual air temperature (in °C/30 years) in Slovenia for the period 1971- 2000. Table 4: Trends in average annual air temperature (in °C/50 years) and relative change in precipitation (in %/50 years) in Slovenia for the period 1951- 2000. Table 5: Surface of flood areas during extreme and yearly sea floods (modified after Kolega (2006)). Table 6: Types of potential responses of different actors. List of Figures Figure 1: Municipality of Koper and its subregion Figure 2: Programmatic and spatial definition of development projects and conflict areas in the coastal region, Source: University of Ljubljana: Detailed development plan of the coastal region, 2004. Figure 3: Municipality of Koper, Source: Surveying and Mapping Authority of the Republic of Slovenia. Figure 4: Mean annual air temperature in Slovenia during a) 1971-1980 (top left), b) 1981-1990 (top right) and c) 1991-2000 (middle) Figure 5: Trends in average annual air temperature in Slovenia for the period 1971- 2000. Figure 6: Statistically significant trends in seasonal amounts of precipitation during 1971-2005: autumn (top left), winter top right, spring (bottom left) and summer (bottom right) (red - increase, blue - decrease, yellow - no change). Figure 7: Spatial distribution of statistically significant trends in storm frequency during May- September (red - increase, blue - decrease, yellow - no change). Figure 8: Spatial distribution of statistically significant trends in hail frequency during May- September. Figure 9: Observed sea level rise in the Koper Bay, Slovenia. Figure 10: Signal in 2m-Temperature and precipitation 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990, A2 scenario for Alpine region of Slovenia (modified from Jacob (2006). Figure 11: Signal in 2m-Temperature and precipitation 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990, A2 scenario for the Mediterranean region in Slovenia (modified from Jacob (2006). Figure 12: Simulated temperature rise (ΔT in °C) in Ljubljana, Novo mesto, Murska Sobota, Rateče and Bilje (left) and relative change in precipitation amount (ΔP/P in %) at same locations (right) till year 2100. WP 7, ACTIVITY 2 4 Figure 13: Projected global average sea level rise under the range of the six SRES scenarios (IPCC, 2001) and a calibrated global climate/ocean model. Figure 14: Sea level rise as observed (from Church and White 2006) shown in red up to the year 2001, together with the IPCC (2001) scenarios for 1990-2100. Figure 15: Comparison