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Katz Presentacion Sesion Plenaria EXPANSIÓN DE INFRAESTRUCTURA REGIONAL PARA LA INTERCONEXIÓN DE TRÁFICO DE INTERNET EN AMÉRICA LATINA caf banco de desarrollo de americaSesion Plenaria latina logo - Google Search 2/6/13 3:32 PM +You Search Images Maps Congreso Regional de TelecomunicacionesPlay YouTube News Gmail Drive Calendar More caf banco de desarrollo de america latina logo Sign in Web Images Telecom Advisory Services, LLC Maps Shopping More Search tools SafeSearch Ciudad de Panama, Agosto 20, 2014 http://www.google.com/search?q=caf+banco+de+desarrollo+de+ame…i=vb0SUdaVH6WG0QGJtoHgCA&sqi=2&ved=0CFIQsAQ&biw=1319&bih=900 Page 1 of 13 AGENDA ! Antecedentes ! Situación de la interconexión de Internet en América Latina ! Propuesta de localizacion de IXP ! Propuesta de modelo técnico, de negocios y operativo ! Marco regulatorio para estimular el despliegue de IXP ! Impacto económico del modelo propuesto ! Plan de implementación y avances a la fecha 2 EL INTERNET Y LA BANDA ANCHA SON TECNOLOGÍAS DE ALTO IMPACTO EN EL DESARROLLO ECONÓMICO Y SU ADOPCIÓN MASIVA MEDIANTE LA REDUCCIÓN DE PRECIOS ES FUNDAMENTAL ! La penetración de la banda ancha para acceder a Internet en América Latina es de 8.7% en fija y 32% en móvil ! La adopción limitada de banda ancha en la región se debe, en primer lugar a precios altos: con una elasticidad de precios estimada en -1.88, una reducción de 10% generaría un aumento de la penetración de banda ancha fija de 8.7% a 10.13% (Katz, 2014) ! Entre el 10% y el 30% de los costos de banda ancha se debe a los costos de tránsito requerido para que los proveedores de Internet se interconecten entre sí ! En consecuencia, una reducción en los costos de tránsito podría resultar en una disminución del precio al consumidor final ! Los IXP (o puntos de intercambio de tráfico) permiten a los proveedores de servicio de Internet a interconectarse sin necesidad de recurrir a circuitos internacionales o de larga distancia nacionales, con lo que se podrían reducir los costos de banda ancha y, como consecuencia, sus precios 3 EL OBJETIVO DE ESTE ESTUDIO FUE DESARROLLAR UN MARCO DE ACCIÓN PARA PROMOVER LA EXPANSIÓN DE LA INFRAESTRUCTURA DE INTERCONEXIÓN REGIONAL DE INTERNET EN LATAM ! Establecer las bases regulatorias y de política para promover la inversión y el uso de IXP en América Latina ! Definir los factores económicos, técnicos y operacionales para el desarrollo y consolidación de una mayor infraestructura de IXP que promueva un intercambio eficiente del tráfico regional de Internet ! Determinar las ubicaciones y el potencial factible de IXP regionales a la luz de proyecciones de tráfico y perfil de la demanda de datos en América Latina ! Proponer diferentes alternativas y modelos de negocio de los IXP en la región, junto con sus modelos corporativos, operativos y de gobernanza ! Estimar el impacto económico en la región del despliegue de IXP, analizando el impacto en los costos de interconexión, los precios finales del servicio de banda ancha y los resultados en la calidad de la conexión 4 AGENDA ! Antecedentes ! Situación de la interconexión de Internet en América Latina ! Propuesta de localizacion de IXP ! Propuesta de modelo técnico, de negocios y operativo ! Marco regulatorio para estimular el despliegue de IXP ! Impacto económico del modelo propuesto ! Plan de implementación y avances a la fecha 5 AMÉRICA LATINA SE ENCUENTRA EN UN NIVEL MEDIO DE UTILIZACIÓN DE INTERNET, CON 288 MILLONES DE USUARIOS A FINALES DEL 2013, CRECIENDO AL 21% ANUAL USUARIOS DE INTERNET EN AMÉRICA LATINA En millones TACC Penetración 3,90 5,65 8,89 11,29 14,40 16,63 20,75 23,70 26,49 31,03 34,71 39,35 43,43 46,72 21,04 % Fuente: Banco Mundial (2014) 6 A FINALES DEL 2013 EL TRÁFICO DE LOS PAISES QUE GENERAN 85% DEL VOLUMEN TOTAL REPRESENTA 1,800 MILLONES DE GIGABYTES POR MES, CRECIENDO AL 42% ANUAL AMERICA LATINA: TRÁFICO TOTAL DE INTERNET (*) (En petabytes por mes) PAIS TACC Argentina 32 % Brasil 47 % Chile 40 % Colombia 42 % México 42 % Panamá 16 % Perú 37 % Venezuela 25 % TOTAL 42 % Nota: 1 PB= 1 Petabyte= 10^15 = 1 millón de Gigabytes (*) Los países incluidos representan 85% del trafico total latinoamericano Fuente: Modelo de tráfico desarrollado por TAS 7 E INTERCONEXIÓN EFICIENTE PARA ACOMODAR ESTE TIPO DE CRECIMIENTO DE TRÁFICO, ES NECESARIO DESPLEGAR UNA INFRAESTRUCTURA DE TRANSPORTE ROBUSTA Y UNA INTERCONEXIÓN EFICIENTE CADENA DE VALOR DE INTERNET Y FACTORES CLAVE Terminal Conexión Proveedor Transporte Transporte Proveedor Punto de de de última de servicio regional / regional / de servicio interconexión acceso milla de Internet internacional internacional de Internet • Smartphone • ADSL • Operador de • Operador de • Punto de • Operador de • Tableta • Cable Modem telecomunicac telecomunicacio intercambio de telecomunicaci • PC • Ftth iones nes de larga trafico de ones de larga • Teléfono • Red móvil (3G • Operador de distancia proveedores de distancia celular y 4G) TV por cable • Proveedor de servicio de • Proveedor de • WiMax • Internet servicios de Internet servicios de Service cable submarino • Alojamiento de cable Provider • Operador de contenidos submarino satélite internacionales • Operador de satélite • Interconexión • Velocidad de • Capacidad de eficiente descarga transporte • Alojamiento • Bajo precio • Bajo precio de contenidos 8 POR UN LADO, EL DESPLIEGUE DE CABLES SUBMARINOS HA PERMITIDO AUMENTAR LA CAPACIDAD DE TRANSPORTE INTERNACIONAL DE DATOS DE LA REGIÓN SOBRE TODO A EE.UU. ARG BRA CHI COL ECU MEX PAN PER VEN CA AMX-1 X X X PAN-AM X X X X X X Sam-1 X X X X X X X SAC/LAN X X X X X X PAC X X X ARCOS X X X X X MAYA-1 X X X X PCCS X X X Globe Net X X X Americas II X X UNASUR X X Bicentenario X Atlantis II X X ARSAT X X X COPACO X X RED DORSAL X X X Internexa X X X X X X X X X Fuente: Telegeography, Análisis TAS Nota: Solo se incluyen los cables que conectan más de un país Redca X X de la región. 9 SIN EMBARGO, EL DESARROLLO DE LA INFRAESTRUCTURA DE INTERCONEXIÓN EN AMÉRICA LATINA HA SIDO DESIGUAL AMÉRICA LATINA: IXP EXISTENTES Numero PAIS Situación de IXPs Argentina 11 • Planea desplegar 10 más Bolivia 0 • 3 en proceso de implantación Brasil 31 • Planea desplegar 16 más Chile 8 • Integrados con operadores Colombia 1 • Sólo tráfico local Ecuador 2 • Sólo tráfico local El Salvador 1 • Operando parcialmente Guatemala 0 • No hay planes Honduras 0 • No hay planes México 1 • 1 en México DF Nicaragua 1 • Alojado en universidad Panamá 1 • Acuerdo informal entre ISP Paraguay 1 • Sin interconexión del incumbente Perú 2 • Uno es operado por consorcio Venezuela 0 • En planeamiento Fuente: Compilado por TAS 10 ESTO IMPLICA QUE GRAN PARTE DEL TRÁFICO DE INTERNET LATINOAMERICANO TODAVÍA SE INTERCONECTE EN ESTADOS UNIDOS AMERICA LATINA: FLUJO DE TRÁFICO DE INTERNET Fuente: Modelo de tráfico desarrollado por TAS 11 APROXIMADAMENTE 14% DEL TRÁFICO DE INTERNET HACIA ESTADOS UNIDOS REPRESENTA FLUJOS DE COMUNICACIÓN ENTRE PAÍSES DE AMÉRICA LATINA AMÉRICA LATINA: FLUJO MENSUAL DE TRÁFICO INTERNACIONAL (2012) (en Petabytes) TRÁFICO SALIENTE Argentina Brasil Chile Colombia México Panamá Perú Venezuela TOTAL Argentina 27 3 0.9 1 0 1.4 0 33.3 Brasil 11 3 1.1 1.2 0.01 0.9 0.6 17.8 Chile 6 8 1.2 0.6 0.09 2 0.03 17.9 Colombia 2 4 1 2.3 2.48 0.8 0.6 13.2 México 1 6 1 1.6 0.35 0.5 0.4 10.8 Panamá 0 0 0 1.6 0.3 0.2 0.4 2.5 Perú 5 4 2 1.4 0.4 0.02 0.5 13.3 Venezuela 1 4 0.5 3.4 1.5 0.7 0.6 11.7 TRÁFICO ENTRANTE Otros 43 305 54 37.2 193.3 18 24 43 717.5 TOTAL 83 359 65 48 199 22.3 30 50 856.3 Porcentaje 31 % 15 % 16 % 23 % 4 % 16 % 21 % 15 % 14 % Latam Fuente: Modelo de tráfico desarrollado por TAS 12 OTRO 19% DEL TRÁFICO ESTÁ ORIENTADO A ACCEDER A CONTENIDOS INTERNACIONALES AUNQUE, EN CIERTOS CASOS, YA ESTÁN ALOJADOS EN LA REGIÓN PARA REDUCIR EL COSTO DE ACCESO AMÉRICA LATINA: FLUJO MENSUAL DE TRÁFICO DE CONTENIDOS (2012) (en Petabytes) Tráfico de contenido País Tráfico total Porcentaje internacional Argentina 127 38 30 % Brasil 652 130 20 % Chile 109 33 30 % Colombia 75 22 29 % México 235 12 5 % Panamá 25 7 28 % Perú 47 14 30 % Venezuela 56 3 5 % TOTAL 1,326 253.3 20 % Fuente: Modelo de trafico desarrollado por TAS 13 EL DESARROLLO DESIGUAL DEL SECTOR DE IXP DETERMINA QUE AMÉRICA LATINA INCURRA ALTOS COSTOS DE TRANSPORTE INTERNACIONAL DE DATOS: US$ 1,800 MILLONES AL AÑO AMÉRICA LATINA: COSTOS ANUALES DE TRÁNSITO DE INTERNET (en US$) Costo por acceso a Costo por trafico Costo por trafico País contenidos internacional ex- Total Latam internacionales Latam Argentina US$ 0 US$ 37.10 US$ 87.65 US$ 124.75 Bolivia US$ 41.16 US$ 20.58 US$ 27.48 US$ 89.22 Brasil US$ 0 US$ 89.53 US$ 509.43 US$ 598. 96 Colombia US$ 89.48 US$ 45.89 US$ 147.98 US$ 283. 35 Costa Rica US$ 18.66 US$ 3.65 US$ 38.52 US$ 60.83 El Salvador US$ 18.66 US$ 3.65 US$ 38.52 US$ 60.83 Guatemala US$ 8.11 US$ 1.59 US$ 16.75 US$ 26.45 Honduras US$ 10.61 US$ 2.07 US$ 21.88 US$ 34.56 México US$ 7.47 US$ 2.05 US$ 138.76 US$ 148.28 Nicaragua US$ 6.03 US$ 1.18 US$ 12.44 US$ 19.65 Panamá US$ 5.57 US$ 11.4 US$ 50.1 US$ 67.07 Paraguay US$ 44.45 US$ 22.23 US$ 29.63 US$ 96.31 Perú US$ 100.74 US$ 29.83 US$ 55.68 US$ 186.25 TOTAL US$ 350.94 US$ 270.75 US$ 1,174.82 US$ 1,796.51 Fuente: Análisis TAS 14 ESTOS COSTOS SON TRANSFERIDOS AL PRECIO FINAL DE LA BANDA ANCHA, LO QUE LIMITA SU ASEQUIBILIDAD EN GRANDES SEGMENTOS DE LA POBLACIÓN AMÉRICA LATINA: EJEMPLOS DE ASEQUIBILIDAD LIMITADA Argentina Brasil Colombia Ecuador México Tarifa Mensual de Plan de Banda Ancha Fija US$ 23.99 US$ 14.75 US$ 20.77 US$ 20.16 US$ 14.58 (*) Básico (en US$) Tarifa Mensual de Plan de Banda Ancha Fija US$ 25.94 US$ 29.65 US$ 22.61 US$ 27.89 US$ 29.16 Medio (en US$) Deciles de ingreso que pueden adquirir servicio 6 al 10 4 al 10 7 al 10 9 y 10 3 al 10 de banda ancha Número de hogares que no pueden adquirir 6,555,000 15,300,000 5,940,000 3,040,000 6,320,000 banda ancha (*) Tarifa de oferta de operadores de cable con cobertura territorial limitada Fuente: Katz y Callorda.
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