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2014 Submarine Cable Market Industry Report

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submarineSUBMARINE TELECOMS telecomsINDUSTRY REPORT INDUSTRY REPORT ISSUE 3 2014 Authored by TABLE OF CONTENTS 5.3 North America-South America Regional Market 56 5.3.1 Bandwidth and Capacity 57 Foreword 10 5.3.2 New Systems 59 Introduction 14 5.4 Australia and New Zealand 66 1. Executive Summary 15 5.4.1 Bandwidth and Capacity 67 2. Worldwide Market Analysis and Outlook 24 5.4.2 New Systems 70 2.1 Overview of Historical System Investment 24 5.5 Sub-Saharan Africa 78 2.2 2008 to 2014 Systems in Review 26 5.5.1 Bandwidth and Capacity 79 2.3 Systems Investment in 2015 and Beyond 27 5.5.2 New Systems 84 3. Supplier Analysis 32 5.6 South Asia & Middle East / Europe-Asia 86 3.1 System Suppliers 32 5.6.1 Bandwidth and Capacity 87 3.2 Upgrade Suppliers 33 5.6.2 New Systems 91 4. Ownership Financing Analysis 38 5.7 Pan-East Asian 94 5. Regional Market Analysis and Capacity Outlook 40 5.7.1 Bandwidth and Capacity 95 5.1 Transatlantic Regional Market 40 5.7.2 New Systems 97 5.1.1 Bandwidth and Capacity 41 5.8 Polar Route 98 5.1.2 New Systems 44 6. Conclusion 102 5.2 Transpacific Regional Market 48 5.2.1 Bandwidth and Capacity 49 5.2.2 Planned Systems 51 5.2.3 New Systems 52 List of Figures Figure 14: Chinese International Internet Bandwidth, 52 2003-2013 Figure 1: Existing vs. Planned Cables 24 Figure 15: Chinese Operators’ Share of China’s Figure 2: Investment in New Submarine Fiber Optic 55 25 International Internet Bandwidth, 2014 Projects, 1987-2014 ($Billions by RFS Date) Figure 16: Existing vs. Planned North America-South Figure 3: Deployment of New Submarine Fiber Optic 56 26 America Cables Projects, 1987-2014 (Route Kilometers by RFS Date) Figure 17: Total Activated North America-South Figure 4: Investment in New Submarine Fiber Optic 58 27 America Capacity, 2007-2013 Projects by Region, 2008-2014 Figure 18: Share of South American International Figure 5: Proposed Submarine Fiber Optic Projects, 59 28 Bandwidth Demand by Country, 2013 2015 and Beyond (Billions) Figure 19: Existing vs. Planned Australia and New 66 Figure 6: Credible Proposed Submarine Fiber Optic Zealand Cables Projects by Region, 2015 and Beyond (“High-Activity” 29 and “Medium-Activity” Projects) Figure 20: Total Activated Capacity between Australia & New Zealand and the US (including Hawaii and 68 Figure 7: Market Share for Supply of New Systems, Guam), 2007-2013 2004-2014 (Primary Contracts Only; Excluding 32 Subcontracts) Figure 21: Existing vs. Planned Sub-Saharan Africa 78 Cables Figure 8: Financing of New Submarine Fiber Optic 38 Systems, 1987-2014 Figure 22: Total Activated Sub-Saharan African 82 Intercontinental Capacity, 2007-2013 Figure 9: Financing of New Submarine Fiber Optic 39 Systems, 2010-2014 Figure 23: Existing vs. Planned South Asia & Middle 86 East / Europe-Asia Cables Figure 10: Existing vs. Planned Transatlantic Cables 40 Figure 24: Total Activated South Asian Interregional Figure 11: Total Activated Transatlantic Capacity, 2007- 88 44 Capacity, 2007-2013 2013 Figure 25: Existing vs. Planned Pan-East Asian Cables 94 Figure 12: Existing vs. Planned Transpacific Cables 48 Figure 26: Total Activated Pan-East Asian Capacity Figure 13: Total Activated Transpacific Capacity, 2007- 96 50 (Trunk Segments), 2007-2013 2013 Figure 27: Existing vs. Planned Polar Route Cables 98 List of Tables Table 14: Existing East African Intercontinental 81 Systems Table 1: Activated Capacity on Major Undersea Routes 21 (Tbps), 2007-2013 Table 15: Proposed Sub-Saharan African 85 Intercontinental Systems Table 2: Key 100G Upgrade Projects for Equipment 34 Suppliers in 2013 and 2014 Table 16: Existing South Asian Interregional Systems 90 Table 3: Existing Transatlantic Cable Systems 42 Table 17: Proposed South Asian Interregional Systems 93 Table 4: Planned Transatlantic Cable Systems - Europe Table 18: Existing Pan-East Asian Systems 96 46 to the Americas Table 19: Proposed Pan-East Asian Systems 97 Table 5: Existing Transpacific Cable Systems 49 Table 20: Proposed Polar Systems 99 Table 6: Planned Transpacific Cable Systems 54 Advertisers Table 7: Existing US-Brazil Cable Systems 57 Table 8: Major Brazilian Operators and Their Undersea Terabit Consulting 8 60 Cable Assets, 2013 SubOptic 12 Table 9: Proposed Latin American Systems 62 Hexatronic 22 Table 10: Existing Australia/New Zealand Nexans 30 68 Intercontinental Systems Fugro 36 Table 11: Market Share of Major Operators in Huawei Marine Networks 64 Combined Australia & New Zealand Markets, and 69 Telecom Egypt 76 Their Key Intercontinental Undersea Cable Assets, 2013 WFN Strategies 100 Table 12: Proposed Australia/New Zealand 75 Intercontinental Systems Table 13: Existing West African Intercontinental 81 Systems INTELLIGENCE, ANALYSIS, AND FORECASTING FOR THE INTERNATIONAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE COMMUNITY Terabit Consulting is a leading source of market intelligence, forecasting, and guidance for the international telecommunications infrastructure community. Its long history of accurate, innovative analysis and advisory services is in large part attributable to the trust and respect it has earned among industry leaders. Terabit Consulting has completed studies for dozens of leading telecom infrastructure projects worldwide and its analysts have traveled to research and deliver studies in more than 70 countries, giving it an unmatched level of experience in nearly every region of the globe. Terabit’s primary clients include financial institutions, development agencies, government ministries, telecom carriers, project developers, suppliers, financiers, law offices, and industry associations, as well as other members of the international telecommunications infrastructure community. Learn more at www.terabitconsulting.com or contact a Terabit Consulting representative today. Terabit Consulting 245 First Street, 18th Floor Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142 USA Tel. +1 617 444 8605 [email protected] They are targeted to produce a review in time to be presented at our SubOptic 2016 conference, which will be held in Dubai from FOREWORD the 18th – 21st April 2016, Hosted by E Marine. SubOptic is once again pleased to support the SubTel Forum Full details of the WG are available in the News Section of our Industry Report, now in its third year. website at www.suboptic.org It fills a gap in the market place by providing an independent The above are just a few of the many issues covered by this report, view of the overall industry written by Terabit Consulting Group, which deserves to be read in detail. who have insider knowledge of the structure and challenges it faces in the future. Well done to SubTel Forum for continuing this initiative, which has now become a regular feature for the industry. Its views are those of the author and some readers may take issue with some of the conclusions it reaches, but then that is life and not all commentators have the same view of the world, which is why an independent author is essential. It is interesting to note the different forces identified in the report, which are at work in each of the regional market places. It is Yves Ruggeri also encouraging that the industry looks again to be in a buoyant President of the SubOptic Executive Committee mood. Also the report notes that the areas of growth are not only in the established market places, but also in infill projects and areas where up until now no systems have been deployed. It is also interesting to note the comment about system built after 1999, being mostly capable of considerable bandwidth upgrade, with 100Gbit/s being regularly employed in a number of areas. This is a theme that SubOptic has also noted as it was extensively discussed at our last conference, SubOptic 2013, held last year in Paris. With many submarine cable systems approaching 15 years in service, operators will soon be reaching key decision points around rebuilding or upgrading and extending their systems. With systems traditionally being designed with a 25 year lifespan, it is timely to review the realistic lifespan of a typical system. Therefore SubOptic has initiated a Working Group (WG) to investigate the realistic lifespan of optical amplifier based systems. Hosted by SUBMARINE TELECOMS INDUSTRY REPORT INTRODUCTION 1. Executive Summary Welcome to the third edition of the Submarine Telecoms Industry The global submarine cable market in 2014 is one that inspires Report, which was authored by the submarine industry’s leading renewed optimism. Driven by intensified technical advancement market analysis firm, Terabit Consulting, with research overseen and robust demand for bandwidth, almost $5 billion worth of by Terabit’s Director of International Research, Michael Ruddy. credible near-term projects are in advanced stages of planning, and It serves as an analytic resource within a trilogy of products continued investment is being directed toward underdeveloped beginning with the Submarine Cable Map and including the markets. Submarine Cable Almanac. Given the cost-effectiveness of 100G transmission as well as The Submarine Telecoms Industry Report features in-depth increasing carrier demand for higher-bandwidth channels, a analysis and prognoses of the submarine cable industry, and serves design capacity threshold of 8 to 10 Tbps per fiber pair characterizes as an invaluable resource for all who are seeking to understand the most of the intercontinental cable systems scheduled to enter health of the submarine industry. It examines both the worldwide service over the next two years. Successful trials of long-haul and regional submarine cable markets, including issues such as 400G wavelengths were held in 2014, and most suppliers expect the new-system and upgrade supply environments, ownership, terabit wavelengths to be commercially available within a few financing, market drivers, and geopolitical/economic events that years. These advances represent a true leap for the industry, which may impact the market in the future. was effectively dominated by 10G transmission technology for more than a decade.
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