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What Would Happen in a Repeat of the 1679 Earthquake Near Beijing?

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What would happen in a repeat of the 1679 earthquake near Beijing? Robert Muir-Wood Chief Research Officer CONFIDENTIAL MOST FATAL HISTORICAL Rank Year Earthquake Fatalities EARTHQUAKES 1 1556 Huaxian, Shaanxi 830,000 IN CHINA 2 1976 Tangshan, Hebei 242,000 3 1920 Haiyuan, Ningxia 235,502 4 1303 Hongdong-Zhaocheng, Shanxi 200,000 5* 2008 Eastern Sichuan (Wenchuan) 87,579 6 1718 Tongwei, Gansu 75,000 7 1695 Linfen, Shanxi 52,600 8 1739 Pingluo-Yinchuan, Ningxia 50,000 9 1668 Tancheng, Shandong 47,615 10 1679 Sanhe, Hebei-Pinggu, Beijing 45,500 Source: Atlas of Natural Disaster System of China * From USGS http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/world/most_destructive.php M8 earthquakes in continental China 1931 1902 1906 1679 1739 Magnitude 1927 1303 Only complete 1920 1695 8-8.4 since 1900 1654 1668 1556 1951 1879 8.5 1950 2008 1833 1604 0 800km 2008 WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE - Highest casualty event since 1976 Tangshan - Reconstruction of lifelines to higher seismic standards Source: http://www.geodifhs.com/nea/-sichuan-longmenshan Source: Preliminary Report on Wenchuan Earthquake, Wang, 2008 Haiyuan Fault rupture history X1000 yrs A B C before present 9 West segment Middle segment East segment 8 7 6 5 Based on palaeoseismic 4 fault trenching studies 3 2 1 1920 M8.5 Palaeoseismic/Historic recurrence intervals in China decreasing strain rate 3300 (M8) 2300 (M8) 2000 (M7.6) 6500 (M8) Beijing 7500 (M7.8) 1670 (M7.7) 1600 (M8.5) 600 (M7.6) 2500 (M8) decreasing 200 (M6.8) strain rate 900 (M8) 0 800km Recurrence interval yrs 2500 (M8) Earthquake size 2008 AND 2013 EARTHQUAKES ALONG LONGMENSHAN FAULT ZONE - The southern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone becomes wider towards the south with an increasing number of secondary faults (with weaker surface activity). - - 2013 earthquake fills the seismic gap around Lushan on the southern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone. Source: Chen et al, (2013) in Chinese Science Bulletin Tangshan Cascade and connected aftershocks 118E 119E Mar 7th (77) 40N G H B D Aug 31st July 28th Nov 15th A July 27th 39.5N F E C 50km Mar 12th (77) 1976 TANGSHAN EARTHQUAKE - Major updates to the 1978 building code - Rebuilt on same site with majority of population in permanent dwellings by 1985 Source: RMS Report on Tangshan Earthquake, 2006 Downtown Tangshan (aerial view of damage) Active tectonic controls of the landscape around Beijing 1720 1665 1679 Regional seismic cycle in North China region 1683 1679 1668 1695 1369-1483 1484-1667 1668-1695 1696-1730 Magnitude 4.75-5.9 6-6.9 7-7.9 8-8.4 8.5 THE 1679 M8.0 SANHE-PINGGU EARTHQUAKE Surface fault scarp in Xiadian (epicenter), Dachang caused by the 1679, M8 Sanhe-Pinggu Earthquake Source: RMS Report on 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu Earthquake, 2007 1679 Earthquake - In the Annals of Sanhe County: “many houses collapsed and the remaining fire in kitchen ranges spread underneath the ruins.” ‘Mountains fell and the ground gave way. The ground surface was split and black water gushed out from it. Damaged houses and buildings were like hills and dead corpse were lying here and there.’ GROWTH OF BEIJING OVER TIME Today’s skyline Source: http://archinect.com/blog/article/75175957/beijing-rising-of-walls-and-walkways Beijing building stock 1960s (retrofitted after 1976) 1980s 1970s 1990s THE 1679 M8.0 EARTHQUAKE IMPACTING MODERN BEIJING - Value at risk in Beijing districts alone - 2.1 trillion RMB (commercial and industrial) - 1.3 trillion RMB (residential) Source: http://www.satimagingcorp.com/gallery/more-imagery/cbers-2/cbers-2-beijing/ Beijing Exposure_15m VRG Soil 60km CALCULATING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS TO PROPERTY AT RISK - Losses to districts of Beijing Province over 1.25 trillion RMB ~ $200 Billion USD - 780 billion RMB (commercial and industrial) - 470 billion RMB (residential) CALCULATING THE IMPACTS TO PEOPLE AT RISK - Casualty estimates very uncertain – very dependent on time of day - Casualties between 200,000 and 300,000 people (including fatalities and injuries) INSURANCE IMPLICATIONS Only a small percentage of economic losses will be recovered from insurance - Take-up of earthquake insurance remains low, though is increasing year-on-year - Proportion of property exposure in Beijing with earthquake coverage is under 10% - Assuming c. 5% of the economic loss is recovered by insurance - Insured losses from a repeat of the 1679 earthquake would be approximately 60 billion RMB (10 billion USD) .
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