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The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake: Risk Management Lessons and Implications Ic Acknowledgements

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The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake: Risk Management Lessons and Implications Ic Acknowledgements The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake: Risk Management Lessons and Implications Ic ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Authors Emily Paterson Domenico del Re Zifa Wang Editor Shelly Ericksen Graphic Designer Yaping Xie Contributors Joseph Sun, Pacific Gas and Electric Company Navin Peiris Robert Muir-Wood Image Sources Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team (EEFIT) Institute of Engineering Mechanics (IEM) Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) National Space Organization (NSO) References Burchfiel, B.C., Chen, Z., Liu, Y. Royden, L.H., “Tectonics of the Longmen Shan and Adjacent Regoins, Central China,” International Geological Review, 37(8), edited by W.G. Ernst, B.J. Skinner, L.A. Taylor (1995). BusinessWeek,”China Quake Batters Energy Industry,” http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/may2008/ gb20080519_901796.htm, accessed September 2008. Densmore A.L., Ellis, M.A., Li, Y., Zhou, R., Hancock, G.S., and Richardson, N., “Active Tectonics of the Beichuan and Pengguan Faults at the Eastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau,” Tectonics, 26, TC4005, doi:10.1029/2006TC001987 (2007). Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the United States of America, “Quake Lakes Under Control, Situation Grim,” http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/gyzg/t458627.htm, accessed September 2008. Energy Bulletin, “China’s Renewable Energy Plans: Shaken, Not Stirred,” http://www.energybulletin.net/node/45778, accessed September 2008. Global Terrorism Analysis, “Energy Implications of the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake,” http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/ article.php?articleid=2374284, accessed September 2008. World Energy Outlook: http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/, accessed September 2008. World Health Organization, “China, Sichuan Earthquake.” http://www.wpro.who.int/sites/eha/disasters/emergency_reports/ chn_earthquake_latest.htm, accessed September 2008. Ic TaBLE OF CONTENTS 1 Setting and Damage of the Wenchuan Earthquake 1 1.1 Western Sichuan, Afternoon of May 12, 2008 1 1.2 Tectonic Setting 2 1.3 Property Damage: Surveys and Observations 2 Proper Seismic Design and Risk Mitigation 4 Effects of Long Duration Ground Motion 4 Poor Building Configuration 4 Impact on Industrial Buildings 5 Vulnerability of Schools and Hospitals 5 Vulnerability and Age of Buildings 5 2 Modeling the Wenchuan Earthquake 8 2.1 Deriving a Modeled Loss 8 2.2 Loss Estimates 8 2.3 Use of Modeled Results 9 3 Improving Modeling By Incorporating Observations 11 3.1 Location, Location … 11 3.2 Why Did This One Collapse? 11 3.3 Data Quality—Where to Begin? 12 4 Conclusions 14 I FOREWORD 前言 The magnitude 8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake of May 12, that it is a key player in preparing the country for the 2008 had the largest impact of any earthquake to strike next event. CIRC responded to the event by hastening China since the catastrophic 1976 Tangshan Earthquake. the plans toward a natural hazard insurance scheme. The The response of the Chinese people was worthy of the experience from other countries has shown that the first size of the event: the Chinese government responded with step in building a natural hazard insurance scheme is to rapidity and strength, sending troops to the affected areas, implement a consistent and robust data standard through no matter how remote, to save lives from under the rubble which to report the value and the nature of the assets and provide relief to those displaced or made homeless exposed. In the last week of May 2008, CIRC held a by the earthquake. Individuals from all corners of China seminar to advance the development of these standards. traveled to the affected region to offer help, or sent financial In this report, RMS has teamed up with the Institute aid to the distressed. Today, close to six months after the of Engineering Mechanics (IEM), our partners in China, earthquake, the wounds are slowly healing and the people to elaborate our response to the earthquake. The brief of Sichuan are embracing the challenge of rebuilding their description of the impact of the event leads to some cities better and stronger. In Beijing, and in government clear conclusions that support the advantages of a robust offices across the country, the earthquake served as a harsh risk management culture, with the first step represented reminder that the great steps China has taken in the past by investment in the definition and collection of data decades have not sheltered the nation from the force and about the insured assets, supported by the standards devastation of natural catastrophes, motivating another being established by CIRC. Alongside the academic type of response—increased risk mitigation. Officials community, modeling companies also take away valuable have been rehearsing emergency plans should the next lessons from analyzing how buildings and people are earthquake happen in their city, in their town. In the office affected by earthquakes, and future models will reflect towers of the financial districts, the banks and insurance this knowledge. This heightened awareness of the value of companies, relieved that their exposure to the event was risk management is a precious opportunity to strengthen small, have been offering financial assistance to hasten the the dialogue between the insurance and the modeling recovery. In the boardrooms, however, questions have communities to work toward solutions to include risk been raised: What if the next one is a direct hit to the metrics into the decision process. The opportunity economic sector? What is the largest loss we can manage? is also at hand to leverage the strength of models to The China Insurance Regulatory Commission encourage mitigation, and reduce the losses from future (CIRC), the insurance regulator for China, recognizes earthquakes in China. 2008年5月12日发生在汶川的里氏8.0级地震是自 防灾减灾阵营中的重要一员。中国保监会应对巨灾的 1976年唐山大地震之后发生在中国境内的特大地震。 策略是竭力促成巨灾保险架构的形成。从多国的经验来 灾后，中国人民的救灾行动更是规模具大，史无前 看，建立巨灾保险架构的第一步是建立一个统一而强劲 例。中国政府反应快速，行动有力，在最短时间内向 的数据标准，来报告资产暴露的真正价值与实质。今年 灾区派遣了大批部队以拯救废墟下的幸存者，并妥善 5月底，中国保监会就已组织了研讨会来促进这个标准 安置受灾群众。灾后六个月的今天，地震的伤口正在 的建立。 慢慢愈合，四川人民正迎接重建的挑战，建设更好、 在这份报告中，阿姆斯风险管理公司与工程力学所- 更加坚固的家园。在北京以及全国各地的政府办公室 -我们在华合作伙伴一起详尽阐述了我们就汶川地震的 中，汶川大地震正成为一个警示，一方面提醒人们中 回应。这次汶川地震的影响揭示了一个清晰的结论， 国前几年的大举措并没有能使国家免受自然灾害的侵 就是要建立一个强劲风险管理机制的前题是加强保险 害，另一方面也激励着新的防灾减灾措施的出台。各 资产数据的采集与清晰度上的投入,这与保监会所要建 地政府官员也着手演练紧急救灾计划，为可能发生在 立的标准是统一的。与学术界一样，风险建模公司也从 自己城市的灾害作准备。同时，在金融区的办公大楼 分析建筑物与人在受到地震影响后的反应中学到重要的 里，银行与保险公司一边为他们的风险暴露在震区规 一课。从而，未来的风险模型将反映出这次所积累的知 模较小而庆幸，一边在为加快灾区重建提供经济上的 识。这次地震后对风险管理价值认识的提高，为加强保 帮助。在董事会议中，人们关心的问题是如果下一个 险公司与风险建模公司之间的对话，从而合作解决在决 灾害将直击中国的经济中心，我们到底能承受多大的 策过程中运用风险机制的问题提供了一个黄金契机。这 经济损失？ 个机会同时也即将使风险模型在今后的地震减灾和降低 作为中国保险监督机构，中国保监会正成为公认的 损失中发挥重大作用。 II 1 SETTING AND DaMAGE OF THE WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE 1.1 Western Sichuan, Afternoon of May 12, 2008 The magnitude (M) 8.01 earthquake that struck Sichuan Province on May 12, 2008 was the strongest earthquake to occur in China in over 50 years, and caused the largest loss of life since the Tangshan earthquake killed 242,000 people in 19762. The earthquake occurred in Wenchuan County, a rural and mountainous region in western Sichuan Province, around 50 miles (80 km) west-northwest of Chengdu. Based on field reports, the epicenter region experienced extreme shaking of intensity IX–XI on the Chinese Intensity Scale, capable of causing heavy to very heavy damage. Due to the mountainous terrain, Damage to buildings in Wenchuan (Source: IEM) numerous landslides destroyed roads and blocked access to the affected region, making search and rescue efforts with no access to medical aid, food, or water. The painstakingly slow. It wasn’t until rescue workers and official death toll indicates that close to 70,000 people emergency services were able to gain access to all of died, approximately 18,000 are still missing, and almost the damage-stricken areas eight days after the event that 375,000 were injured during the earthquake. the true extent and severity of the earthquake emerged, The Wenchuan Earthquake occurred at 2:28 p.m. revealing a catastrophic disaster. The slow progress of local time on Monday, May 12—a time when the search and rescue efforts compounded the death toll, as majority of adults were at work and children were at many people were trapped beneath collapsed buildings school. Though there is no official number published to date, reports indicate that at least 10,000 school children perished when approximately 100 schools collapsed. The collapse of so many schools and the deaths of so many children was one of the most disturbing consequences of the earthquake, and parents and communities are demanding answers and inquiries regarding the quality of construction for school buildings. Over 138,000 businesses were damaged during the earthquake, leading to extensive business interruption. Damage to energy production facilities caused power outages across the affected region and continues to cause disruption to the energy sector today. As of September 8, more than 28,000 aftershocks were recorded, of which 156 were recorded as M4 or greater, 39 as M5 or greater, and 8 as greater than M6, with the largest aftershock of M6.5 occurring on Sunday, May 25. These strong aftershocks contributed to the collapse of many of the buildings damaged during the Location of the May 12, 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake epicenter and associated main quake, causing further loss of life. aftershocks (Catalog source: Harvard University) 1 M8.0 represents surface wave magnitude (Ms), the national standard used by the Chinese government for earthquake magnitude. The USGS reports M7.9 for the
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