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Plan B for Persia

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Plan B for Persia PLAN B FOR PERSIA: RESPONDING TO IRAN’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM ABSENT DIPLOMATIC AGREEMENT (Natanz Uranium Enrichment Facilities, February 29, 2004) (Esfahan Uranium Conversion Facilities, February 12, 2005) 2006 Kennedy School of Government Policy Analysis Exercise April 4, 2006 Prepared by: Prepared for: Sean Patrick Hazlett Ambassador R. Nicholas Burns Submitted in Partial Fulfillment Under Secretary for Political Affairs of the Requirements for the United States Department of State Degree of Master in Public Policy Faculty Advisor: Seminar Leaders: Dr. Ashton B. Carter Dr. Steve Miller and Dr. Monica Toft Sean Hazlett Plan B for Persia i Sean Hazlett Plan B for Persia Contents LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................................................................................V ACKNOWLEDGMENTS.......................................................................................................................................VII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.................................................................................................................................... VIII INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................................................1 THE PROBLEM..........................................................................................................................................................1 STATEMENT OF PURPOSE.........................................................................................................................................1 ROADMAP .................................................................................................................................................................2 BACKGROUND..........................................................................................................................................................3 METHODOLOGY......................................................................................................................................................5 CASE STUDY FINDINGS.........................................................................................................................................6 CASE 1: IRANIAN FOREIGN POLICY ........................................................................................................................6 Key Lessons .........................................................................................................................................................6 CASE 2: COERCIVE OPTIONS – OSIRAK, NORTH KOREA, KOSOVO AND OTHERS ................................................6 Key Lessons .........................................................................................................................................................6 CASE 3: US STRATEGIC ADJUSTMENT TO CHINA’S NASCENT NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM ..........................7 Key Lessons .........................................................................................................................................................7 POLICY OPTION 1: COERCION............................................................................................................................8 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK .............................................................................................................................................8 TIMING AND TRIGGERS: A STRATEGY FOR TRANSITION FROM PLAN A TO PLAN B ............................................8 PLAN A AND PLAN B MUST PROCEED IN PARALLEL, BE MUTUALLY REINFORCING, FOCUS SOLELY ON IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM, AND HAVE FIRM COMMITMENTS FROM US-EU PARTNERS FOR COERCIVE ACTION.......8 ALLIES ......................................................................................................................................................................9 EU-3/EU/Japan Cooperation is Necessary Condition for Successful Coercion...............................................9 Turkey’s Tacit Cooperation via Military Action is Necessary Condition for Coercion ..................................10 Russia Must Not Impede US Effort..................................................................................................................10 China Must Not Impede US Effort...................................................................................................................11 Israel Must Exercise Restraint .........................................................................................................................11 Egypt Must Help Agitate Arab World against Iran..........................................................................................12 Iraq Must Continue to Support Coalition Presence in Iraq ............................................................................12 Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) States Are Critical Players in US Effort ...................................................13 POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND MILITARY OPTIONS/TOOLS ..................................................................................14 Political Tools....................................................................................................................................................14 Economic Tools.................................................................................................................................................15 Military Options ................................................................................................................................................15 POLICY INGREDIENTS: US COERCIVE POLICY MUST FOCUS ON IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM .........................22 Political Pressure ..............................................................................................................................................22 Economic Pressure............................................................................................................................................23 Military Pressure...............................................................................................................................................28 IRANIAN REACTIONS..............................................................................................................................................28 Political..............................................................................................................................................................28 Economic...........................................................................................................................................................29 Military ..............................................................................................................................................................30 KEY FINDINGS........................................................................................................................................................31 Finding #1: Transition from Plan A to Plan B Must Be Abrupt and Unambiguous .....................................31 Finding #2: Multilateral Economic Sanctions and Military Action are Most Effective Coercive Tools .......31 Finding #3: Military Action against Iran Will Have Severe Impact on Global Economy .............................31 ii Sean Hazlett Plan B for Persia POLICY OPTION 2: STRATEGIC ADJUSTMENT ............................................................................................32 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK ...........................................................................................................................................32 ALLIES ....................................................................................................................................................................32 US Must Convince EU-3/EU/Japan to Share Greater Burden in Energy Security........................................32 US Must Integrate Turkey into Western Alliance by Advocating for its EU Membership.............................32 US Must Induce Russia to Sever Nuclear Relationship with Iran ..................................................................32 US Must Manage Chinese, Japanese and US Regional Competition for Energy ..........................................32 Israel Will Be On a Hair Trigger......................................................................................................................32 US Must Induce and Bully Egypt Not to Develop Nuclear Weapons..............................................................33 Iraq Could Become the Neo Germany of the Neo Cold War...........................................................................33 US Must Convince Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) States to Help Contain Iran.......................................33 POLICY INGREDIENTS ............................................................................................................................................33 Protection – Denial, Detection, Deterrence and Defense ................................................................................33 Reduction of Negative Impact to Regional Alliances.......................................................................................36 Response to Increased Iranian Adventurism: Containing Iran ......................................................................36 Prevention of Regional Proliferation ...............................................................................................................37
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