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A PODIUM TOO FAR How climate change will impact sports in Executive summary

SPORT IN BRAZIL WILL NEVER BE THE SAME AGAIN AFTER CLIMATE CHANGE. The amount of warming that is predicted for the country over the coming decades will make it more difficult to break records in several modalities and will frequently pose life risk to athletes. Adaptation to high temperatures will demand more attention and the use of health technologies in all stages of competitions – which will have to occur in alternative hours, such as dawn.

Between 2070 and 2099, severe In the city of IT temperature elevations in the WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE TO worst-case emissions scenario PRACTICE SPORTS OUTDOORS (in which either the Paris Agreement ANY TIME OF THE YEAR. commitments are not met or their ambition Wet-bulb globe temperatures is not increased) will impose restrictions there will be permanently above to sports practice in 12 BRAZILIAN 32oC, the “stop-play” condition CAPITAL CITIES DURING SEVERAL TIMES as defined by FIFA. The human OF THE YEAR. In that scenario, 23 capital tolerance limit is a wet-bulb cities will suffer strong or very strong temperature of 35oC. heat stress year-round. {

Temperature elevations imply in LOSS OF EXCELLENCE IN SPORTS PRACTICE. What fans are likely to see in the coming years are matches or races in which athletes give in to fatigue earlier on, even if they remain in the competition until the end. Such fatigue won’t happen only because of the cardiovascular response, but because of neuromuscular response as well. Excess heat leads to a loss of ( strength and less precise movements. (

EVEN TODAY BRAZIL ALREADY EXPERIENCES EXTREME HEAT HAMPERING SPORTS TOURNAMENTS: in the 2014 World Cup, two matches needed technical time when wet bulb temperatures reached 32oC in the stadiums (in and Manaus); in 2015, a Women’s League football match needed to be halted in Piauí after nine players suffered heat-related injuries. In the test events for the Rio Olympics, several athletes had heat-related injuries – in the racewalking competition, 11 out of 18 succumbed to conditions and one passed out.

2 A Podium Too Far In the Rio Index Games there Chapter 1: Global warming probably will Climate and health: The already leads sports be no records being new rules of the game physicians worldwide broken in several Pág. 4 to discuss the BEST modalities. In the Chapter 2: STRATEGIES FOR Olympic marathon, for Impacts: today COPING WITH HEAT instance, no records Heat and sports: a STRESS IN ATHLETES. are broken in places troubled relationship The debate goes with temperatures Pág. 14 around, for instance above 12oC. Rio’s Chapter 3: previously chilling the winter is unlikely Impacts: tomorrow body, through fans or to boast such cool Brazil’s new climate even ice. conditions. Pág. 20

As an adaptation measure, athletics competitions IN RIO WILL ONLY HAPPEN IN THE MORNINGS AND LATE AFTERNOONS, and soccer matches in Manaus were scheduled ( for the evenings. ( Expediente Research and texts: Lúcia Helena de Oliveira, Wagner Prado A HOTTER CLIMATE IS ALSO LIKELY TO and Claudio Angelo WIDEN THE INEQUALITIES THAT ARE SEEN Edition: TODAY IN HIGH-PERFORMANCE SPORTS. Claudio Angelo Adaptation will require more and more Design: high-tech, high-price clothes and other Daniela Fontinele equipment, which are outside the reach of low- Infographic: income young people, who face barriers already Estúdio Labirinto today to enter the career. An active search of new talent needs to be implemented as a A report by Observatório { measure of adaptation of Brazilian sport. do Clima

A Podium Too Far 3 Climate and health

THE NEW RULES OF THE GAME

he test events for Rio2016 were more Hot and humid air continued to punish ath- than just trial run to check the struc- letes throughout the test events. In the race- Tture and organization of the Olympic walking test, held one weekend in February Games. The athletes themselves also got a with 41% humidity and with temperatures taste of what it will be like to face one of their reaching 38oC, 11 of the 18 participants suc- worst opponents: global warming. As early cumbed to the conditions. These included on as the triathlon test, the four - one of them, Samir - winter surprised those who have not been din, fainted and was taken away in an am- keeping tabs on changes to our climate. The bulance. He awoke in a state of total mental triathlon was the second of 44 competitions confusion. The marathon, the ultimate test, programmed between August last year and took place in an April in which thermometers this May, a series of events ironically called were reading between 32oC and 34oC. Victory Aquece Rio (Warming Up Rio). lay with Márcio Barreto da Silva from , who completed in 2 hours, 31 minutes and In the height of August, the same month 22 seconds. For this sport’s standards, this that the actual Olympics take place, triath- time is much slower than the 2 hours and 19 letes in the men’s tests set off at 2pm in minutes Barreto da Silva himself made when nearly 35oC heat with a relative humidity of he secured one of Brazil’s three places in the 70%. At that moment, the Rio2016 Orga- event. He is sure that the heat in Rio de Ja- nizing Committee Medical Director, João neiro is the greatest obstacle for the 80 mara- Grangeiro Neto, admits that he was con- thon runners fighting for the gold. cerned about the risk of hyperthermia (ele- vated body temperature) in the athletes, The test events give us an idea of what sport which can set off a cascade of dangerous will be like from now on: a practice that, due and at times fatal physiological reactions. to climate change, will frequently put the life According to him, luckily everything ended of the athlete at risk, requiring much more well. Some adjustments were made, such attention to and technology surrounding as more cooling stations for the athletes health and thermal adaptation before, during throughout the course and rearranging the and after competitions. Training and compe- times of the Games, to place less trust in titions will have to take place at restricted the idea that they supposedly take part du- and alternative times, such as early in the ring the “coldest season of the year”. morning. And, even doing all of this, com-

4 A Podium Too Far Increasing temperatures will force trainings and competitions to take place at alternate schedules, such as night time and dawn

Roberto Castro/Ministério do Esporte petitions are likely to become slower, with Faced with this, to guarantee survival, the a proliferation of technical errors and diffi- body has four thermoregulation mecha- culty in breaking records. Because of global nisms, which either hold on to or dissipate warming, sport will never be the same again. heat generated by our own metabolism, Particularly in tropical countries, like Brazil, sweating being the principal mechanism where athletes today have less access to (see the infographic on page 12). But the effi- adaptation technologies. ciency of these mechanisms depends on the external climate. And they also have limits Human beings are homeothermal animals. - these are most restrictive for children and Their bodies try to maintain a constant in- the elderly, for example, and often impracti- ternal temperature, as close as possible to cal for athletes in a sport that requires en- 37oC. It is within this range that the thou- durance, particularly if performed outdoors, sands of chemical reactions that take place on hot and humid days. every moment within our bodies are most ef- ficient. Cooling or heating is, for our bodies, If our thermoregulation mechanisms cannot something that hampers its physiology. This handle the high temperatures, heat-related limit cannot be extended except for relative- illnesses occur. This is the name attributed ly short periods of time. by science to the consequences of ther-

A Podium Too Far 5 Climate and health

mal stress caused by the overheating of the body, according to exercise physiologist Or- lando Laitano, professor at the Vale do São Francisco University, in , and researcher at Florida University, in the USA. He justifies the nomenclature: excessive heat is an agent that causes an immune sys- tem reaction similar to that when the body is attacked by virus or harmful bacteria. Fur- thermore, in this case, the reaction tends to be even quicker and more intense. The symptoms of heatstroke - the most serious heat-related illness - are equivalent to those of sepsis, a generalized infection. For this reason, it can kill quickly.

Among those most likely to suffer heatstroke are sportsmen and women. The explanation can be found in the concept of mechanical efficiency: muscular fibres only transform 5% to 25% of the energy that they obtain ference. Sodium is a chemical element that into movement. The rest is expelled as heat. drains from the body in sweat. There are The highest energy efficiency levels - be- no records of hyponatraemia - low sodium tween 22% and 25% - corresponds to the concentration in the blood - in, for exam- metabolism of a professional athlete, ac- ple, 100 m races. However, episodes of this cording to the calculations of physiologist become increasingly more frequent in the Paulo Zogaib, sports medicine professor at sports that require endurance - triathlons, the Federal University of . How- marathons, football and all field sports, ever, although the muscles of high-perfor- and even wrestling and other court mance athletes waste less energy as heat, team sports after exceeding the 30-minute they also need huge quantities of energy for effort barrier in elevated wet-bulb tempera- each training session or competition. That ture conditions, a measure that considers is, when practising sport, the muscles of an the relationship between heat and humidi- Olympic marathon runner become powerful ty (see page 22). This is where the athlete’s internal heaters - producing a large amount body enters into a vicious cycle. of heat in a short period of time - and their bodies need to compensate for this. But the According to Zogaib, from the moment in warming of the planet is making this mission which the apparent temperature becomes much more difficult. equal to the body’s temperature, sweat production intensifies and, even so, it can- The duration of the exercise on a hot day, not cool the body - this issue worsens with or worse, hot and very humid, makes a dif- increased relative humidity. Profuse sweat

6 A Podium Too Far Race-walker during test event to the Rio Olympics: 11 out of 18 competitors succumbed to extreme heat HEATSTROKE Name given to the most serious form of heat- related illness, which may cause the total collapse of the organism and result in death

WET-BULB TEMPERATURE Measurement of temperature which takes into account factors such as heat and relative humidity to estimate the amount of effort that a human being can make

tion, increase decision-making time and also body reaction time. Result: a greater number of bad plays. Sports that require extremely accurate movements lose points. This is observed even in sports such as shooting Ivo Lima/Ministério do Esporte sport, in which hydration was not such a concern in physical preparation. sits on the skin, without evaporating. Then In research looking at football, Orlando Lai- comes fatigue and mechanical efficiency tano says that referees suffer similar effects drops from 25% to around 20%. Result: related to liquids and cognitive capacity. Re- muscles start to release 80% of the energy search indicates that heat and the subse- obtained as heat, which aggravates the hy- quent loss of bodily fluids are related to er- perthermia. Fatigue increases, reducing the rors in refereeing. There are also studies that muscle’s efficiency. The body then heats confirm - as revealed by Paulo Zogaib - that, up a bit more, mechanical efficiency suffers when sweat increases too much, individuals another drop. If the competition is not sus- suffer distorted time and space perception. pended, it may end badly. Football players and also the referee stop viewing the ball as they should, losing the A long time before this point, the nervous notion of the exact direction which it is co- system is crying out with thirst. The main ming from and calculating its speed badly. ingredient of sweat is liquid removed from All this translates, in the eyes of the fan, into blood circulation. And just a small drop in a less-pleasing sport, as if heat reduces the hydration levels - between 2% and 3% of possibility of beautiful plays. body fluid weight - is enough for the brain suffer. Antonio Herbet Lancha Júnior, pro- The problem worsens when the volume of fessor at the School of Physical Education blood falls too much, when too much wa- and Sport at the University of São Paulo ter is removed from circulation for sweat. As (USP), observes that, in players, there appears to be too little to supply the this drop is enough to interrupt concentra- active muscles and, at the same time, supply

A Podium Too Far 7 Climate and health

the demanding central nervous system, it is GENETICALLY ADAPTED? as if the latter gets confused and allows the It has been speculated that African marathon sweating system to extract water from an- runners may have some sort of genetic other source – in this case, from inside cells. mutation that makes them more resistant to The cells therefore continue to shrink until excessive heat. However, after having combed they die - neurons in the frontline platoon. through the DNA of more than 200 African This scenario is, the majority of the time, ir- athletes, nothing different was identified. reversible, and, ironically, the facts suggest No portion of human DNA, from the 2,445 that high-performance athletes are the main genes that interact with physical training, characters when history deals this hand. This is able to relieve the body of heat. Rodrigo is because the majority of people feel sick Dias, researcher at the Functional Genomics and lose consciousness when the volume Laboratory at the Heart Institute of the São of bodily fluid falls by around 6% (dehydra- Paulo Clinical Hospital, concluded that this tion), while sportspeople ignore the systems, was a physiological adaptation phenomenon either because their bodies are really more in which the body adapts to the environment resistant to this state, or for more subjective in which it grew up. Just as swimmers tend reasons, such as forcing their physiological to present sweat gland atrophy, it is possible limits to not give up on a medal. that athletes born and raised in hot places on the planet produce, for example, more diluted The threat is no less in competi- sweat, without losing so many salts. tions held in open water, without the tem- perature controls of swimming pools. Some time ago, the triathlon recorded a relatively high incidence of deaths compared to other sports. What has been particularly interest- The cases of death in open-water swimming ing to scientists is that the majority of these have caused the internationsl swimming federation to forbid official competitions when do not occur during the land stages - of water temperatures touch 31oC cycling and running -, but during the first 4 km of swimming. Before, drowning was thought to be the primary cause. Nowadays, however, we know that heatstroke in open water was previously underestimated. Re- cently, the International Swimming Federa- tion banned official competitions from taking place when the water is equal to or exceeds 31oC, which is our average peripheral tem- perature. This is because the human body depends entirely on the conduction of heat from the skin through the medium of water as a form of thermoregulation. If the body is submerged, sweating has no effect. So much so that high performance swimmers tend to

8 A Podium Too Far end up with sweat gland atrophy and, if they lated as required and a temperature that can perform physical activity on land, can easily range from 5oC to 60oC. succumb to hyperthermia. Emerson Silami Garcia is a physiologist, The training of athletes has focused for a long retired from UFMG and visiting professor time on their capacity to adapt. They land in at the Federal University of Maranhão. Ac- competition locations a few days beforehand cording to him, to prepare for a game in the precisely to give their bodies the chance to Brazilian climate, in general the chamber acclimatize.This is routine. What’s new is that temperature is regulated at 45oC, which is increasing heat is demanding that top athletes unbearable for the first four days of sweat- travel further and more frequently to train for ing. The recommendation is to exercise in various weeks in countries with a similar cli- this sauna-like chamber for two hours a day, mate to that of the climate in which a large for two weeks. This is the intensity of train- competition will take place. This is when they ing that the body needs to learn to increase do not resort to exhausting training in cham- the heart rate more slowly and, at the same bers, such as those that exist in the Federal time, to start to sweat (and therefore cool) University of (UFMG). There, earlier, also producing a sweat lower in salts. closed in a 4 m by 4.4 m space, ten athletes All of this helps to delay the appearance of pedal away or a group of up to five of them heat-related symptoms. run on the treadmill, with the humidity regu- Scientists are also looking for possible solu- Alex Ferro/Rio2016 tions to mitigate the ill effects on the body during competitions. Garcia recently tes- ted an ice helmet that may form part of the uniform for sports such as athletics. This is useful, of course, to cool the head, which is well equipped with blood vessels. The goal, however, is to trick the hypothalamus, the area of the brain that at times serves as the human body’s thermostat. This would then identify the drop in body temperature, re- ducing the sensation of fatigue. Investigation into the use of the helmet brings up a crucial argument: to what extent would this tool to trick the hypothalamus do any good, when the body continues to endure heat from the neck down.

According to specialists, looking at the ther- mometers, questions like this will become increasingly common in the sporting world. And not only to change the time or delay

A Podium Too Far 9 Climate and health

competitions, but also to look at the ideal climate for each sport and, more important- ly, for each athlete.

Sports science is moving towards custo- mization. Laitano himself is behind the so- called “smart bottle”, which he developed as a consultant at the Gatorade Sports Sci- ence Institute. It was tested for the first time by the Brazilian national football team in the 2014 World Cup and should be launched in 2018. The scientist analysed the composi- tion of each athlete’s sweat. Flavour was added to the personal and non-transferable mix of salts and everything was put into cap- sules like those for espresso coffee. Thanks to a chip, the bottle lid informs the technical team how many sips each player has taken and if it is necessary to adjust the rehydra- ding lower classes from accessing sport. tion plan. Another piece of equipment being This is particularly marked in Brazil, where tested follows the same logic: a drink dis- few have access to clubs; there are no poli- pensing machine which scans the athlete’s cies to scout for new talents, or to stimulate hand, analyses the sweat composition data sport by means of university access oppor- taking the wet-bulb temperature and training tunities, such as in the United States. intensity into account. And there you have it: a made-to-measure isotonic is served. And it will not be necessary for the planet to reach dangerously high levels of warming It is encouraging to see that sports science for heat to cause problems for the Games. is preparing to tackle hot times. What is dis- In the Rio2016 , it’s unlikely couraging is to know that this may all just that there will be records in many sports. have a palliative effect. The customized iso- The marathon is an excellent example. We tonic will improve the physical condition of a know that marathon runners perform best marathon runner, for example. However, by at between 8oC and 11oC; no records have gastric evacuation rate limits, around 1 litre been set in places with temperatures above per hour, the athlete will not be able to re- 12oC along any stretch of the 42.195 km of plenish the 2 to 3 litres of sweat that s/he is official track for the Olympic competition. It likely to lose in this same time period, if the is also highly unlikely that Rio de Janeiro will wet-bulb temperature reaches 32oC. This is provide such cool conditions. all without considering how expensive this equipment is. What now are luxuries will Performance, however, is only one side of become necessary safety assurance tools. the coin. The main damage that climate This tends to increase the social gap impe- does to sport is by dissociating it with health.

10 A Podium Too Far Adaptation will require technologies that are increasingly sophisticated and expensive, making it harder for low-income athletes to join the sports elite reminiscent of work-related diseases. Sar- castically, he warns that on hot days in pol- luted areas, it is healthier to go out and have a beer (in the shade) than to practise sport outdoors. Renata Nakata Teixeira, from the Medical Faculty at the USP, performs re- search into bronchospasms, breathing dif- ficulties experienced by athletes in endur- ance sports during competitions. Athletes who suffer these are afterwards more prone to developing asthma. According to her, the medical literature indicates that there are more records of broncospasms in competi- tions held in excessively high temperatures.

Mathilde Molla/Rio2016 Among the paradoxes of an overheated world, is the discovery published by Orlan- do Laitano this February: striated skeletal Even today. A specialist in adapted physical muscle - the one which is attached to bones exercise, Luzimar Teixeira, from the School by tendons and is responsible for voluntary of Physical Education and Sports at USP, is movements -has an endocrine function. It concerned about air pollution, which often secretes chemical messengers, myokines originates from the same place as global (muscular cytokines) which interact with the warming - burning fossil fuels. This is be- immune system and a number of organs, cause respiratory volume increases during protecting the organism from the acute ef- exercise activity, particularly when it is hot. fects of heat. However, only well prepared Consequently, the athlete may inhale more muscle secretes these substances. If the sulphur dioxide, particularly the fine particu- muscle is not in a suitable, athletic condi- lates and other compounds that cause im- tion, it will do the opposite: muscles secrete mediate damage to lungs. pro-inflammatory agents which can lead to death by heatstroke. Which comes to the The researcher takes a pessimistic view in question made by the scientist: it is feasible which he sees a relatively young generation to have muscles that are extremely well pre- of athletes with severe respiratory problems, pared for this climate?

On hot days in polluted areas, it is healthier to go out and have a beer (in the shade) than to practise sport outdoors. Luzimar Teixeira, professor at the School of Physical Education and Sport, University of São Paulo

A Podium Too Far 11 How extreme heat hampers an athlete´s performance

UNDER NORMAL CONDITIONS OF TEMPERATURE AND… % Due to the duration of the race, the marathon is parameter in studies of thermoregulation

MUSCLES GENERATE HEAT THROUGH THE AIR When they contract, the bres When the runner expires, if the of the skeletal muscles, responsible 3/4 EXPIRED external temperature is lower than for the voluntary movements of OF THE HUGE HEAT that of his body, he loses up to the body, always eliminate heat. AMOUNT OF 15% of the excess heat produced In high performance sports, this ENERGY THAT by the muscles through conduction release increases up to 25 times THE ATHLETE’S and other 3% through evaporation. and the musculature becomes MUSCLES USE a p aowerful heater. TO RUN ARE NOT TRANSFORMED THROUGH SWEAT HEAT INTO MOVEMENT ACCELERATED The nervous system commands AND ARE HEART the sweat glands to increase the WASTED AS production of this  uid that, while HEAT evaporating, cools the body. Indeed, it is the only out ow for the heat if the environment temperature is equal to or higher than the internal.

EVAPORATION SWEAT SKIN PORE

CORE TEMPERATURE t should be close to 37°C. Nevertheless, skin temperature should be close to 31°C, since body heating happens inside out. In a marathon, however, the muscles provoke the rise of 1°C every ve minutes in case MUSCLE FIBER the body is not able to count on SWEAT GLAND thermoregulatory mechanisms. THROUGH IRRADIATION RISE TREND The skin capillaries dilate, conducting heat to the surface. Thus, 60% of the exceeding 5 MIN IRRADIATED 1 ºC HEAT temperature generated by active muscles are released as infrared rays. That is, in a race in mild climate. PROJECTION IF THE ATHLETE’S BODY COULD NOT COOL DOWN IRRADIATED HEAT

2H 2MIN 57S INCREASED + 24,6 ºC BLOOD FLOW

VESSEL DILATATION RASH

CAPILLARIES

ENVIRONMENT TEMPERATURE ON PERFORMANCE DISTRIBUTION ACCELERATED RAPID PROBLEM HEART BREATHING 24ºC performance falls With the cerebral order for It is one of the body’s The breathing rhythm 25% or more circulation to privilege skin responses, in addition to increases to follow heart 11ºC maximum performance in order to cool the body, closing and opening several acceleration, oxygenating of any individual in the muscles under intense smaller vessels, to normalize the blood. However, this sport. activity complain about the circulation in the active it does not signi cantly lack of blood supply through muscles, while conducting increase heat loss 4ºC the performance of chemical signals. heat to the surface. through the exhaled air. marathonist also falls 25%

12 A Podium Too Far ...WHEN THE WEATHER HEATS UP AND BECOMES DAMP If the thermal sensation is equal to body temperature, the sport could become risky. !

SINGLE ALTERNATIVE 28 GRAMS OF MINERALS NERVOUS Under these conditions, irradiation SYSTEM and conduction cease to take +50% CONTRACTION effect. The nervous system uses IS AS MUCH the mechanism that is left to 1.5 LITRES OF AS SWEAT SWEAT PER HOUR PRODUCTION survive the heat: sweating. COULD The marathoner already loses INCREASE IN A 1.5 litres of sweat per hour. HOSTILE HOT CLIMATE. MUSCLE

LOCOMOTOR SYSTEM AQUECIMENTO IMPAIRED MOVEMENTS MOISTURE LOW MOISTURE HIGH MOISTURE HEADACHE AND CONTRACTIONS FACTOR 30ºC Lancinating, it signals The communication between the If it is high, sweat dehydration. Neurons nervous system and the muscles does not dry, EVAPORATION cannot cope with loses ef ciency. Movements become core temperature the lack of water lost uncoordinated and slow. There is does not through sweat. Next, also loss of strength and painful decrease, and the athlete has mental contractions because of the lack the nervous SWEAT confusion and often loses of sodium and potassium through system activates SKIN consciousness. There may sweat. The runner might fall to the the sweat glands be convulsions and death. ground from exhaustion. even further. HIGHER SWEAT There is much PRODUCTION loss of  uid and PAIN THE ATHLETE’S BODY minerals, which TEMPERATURE causes the effect of heat stress ABOVE 40 cascade. DEGREES CELSIUS Heat stroke: there is a very strong threat to life. BRAIN 2% 40 ºC DECREASE IN Nothing can be done BODY FLUIDS except leaving the ARE SUFFICIENT competition immediately. TO DECREASE It is not possible to CONCENTRATION insist, due to total lack AND AFFECT of physical conditions. DECISION- MAKING, AND BETWEEN 38°C AND 40°C OTHER BRAIN when the sportsperson’s FUNCTIONS body reaches this range, it is already STOMACH showing signs of heat illness such as headache, nausea and LIVER contractions.

BETWEEN 37°C AND 38°C UPSET STOMACH in competitions of INTESTINE Blood ceases to circulate right increased resistance through the digestive tract. There and duration as the is nausea, the body’s attempt to marathon, it is even make the athlete stop at all costs. expected that the core temperature should IN THE LIVER reach such range and The  uid loss in the cells and the stabilize in it. breakdown of proteins make the liver release toxins that the immune 37º C system understands as bacteria. it is the normal internal The body goes into shock. temperature of the human being.

A Podium Too Far 13 Impacts: today

HEAT AND SPORTS: A TROUBLED RELATIONSHIP

n 23 September 2015, a Brazili- and an underlying trend of planetary war- an women’s football championship ming as a result of greenhouse gases. And Omatch in , Piauí, went down these cases are indicative of what may be in in national sports history. The match between store for sports - and for all other activities Tiradentes (Piauí) and Viana (Maranhão) end- - in the coming decades, in an increasingly ed with a score of 10-0 to the home team, not hotter Brazil. for their technical superiority, but due to one external factor: the climate. The extreme heat Ambient temperature and relative humidi- in the Piauí capital at 3PM resulted in nine ty are linked to man’s capacity to regulate players from the Maranhão team falling ill on body temperature and oxygen intake. Du- the pitch, diagnosed with dehydration and ring exercise, the human body is always fatigue. Five had to be taken to the hospital. working to maintain homeostasis, that is, The match was suspended 36 minutes into the physiological balance of vital functions. the second half for lack of players. All players However, in some adverse conditions, there subsequently recovered. is a tendency to lose this balance. The hu- man body works within a very narrow tem- The cyclist Marlus de Souza Freitas from perature range, between 36.5oC and 38oC. do Sul was not so lucky. On 18 As our core body temperature fluctuates lit- October 2015, he suffered the ill effects se- tle, exposure to heat or cold means that our ven hours after having completed a 102 kilo- body must apply mechanisms to generate metre competition in Rochedinho, district of or maintain heat in low temperatures and Campo Grande, disputed in temperatures of dissipate heat in high temperatures. 40oC. Freitas died of severe dehydration in Santa Casa Hospital, Campo Grande. Our core body temperature increases to 38.5oC at 75% effort during exercise. This Both cases occurred in one of the hottest value does not increase any further because periods of Brazil’s history, in the hottest year of thermoregulation mechanisms. With- on record since global thermometer-based out them, the core temperature of the body records began in the 19th century. In Septem- would increase 1oC every minute of intense ber and October 2015, various Brazilian ci- exercise. Excessive heat poses harm to the ties broke historic temperature records, due body in two ways: facilitating dehydration in to the combined action of a strong El Niño low relative humidity conditions and prevent-

14 A Podium Too Far Player from Viana football team collapses in the pitch under the heat of Teresina

Wilson Filho/Cidade Verde ing the body from dissipating heat in high the games that were programmed to take relative humidity conditions. In both cases, place in the early afternoon. Now all will take if this limit is exceeded the body enters into place after 6PM, due to the extreme heat in shock, unable to regulate internal tempera- the Amazonas capital during the event. “We ture, so-called “exertional heatstroke” and asked for this change as the first match of the victim may die. the day was planned for 1PM. This would be very hot, both for the players and the Increasing high temperatures have demanded spectators. It would not have been appro- and will continue to demand an even greater priate and therefore we chose the adapted effort by the sports sector to adapt. This acti- timetable as a public health consideration”, vity moved R$ 67 billion 2012 (1.6% of Brazil’s said Mario Aufiero, state coordinator for the GDP) and is in the public eye´s the country in Manaus Committee 2016. 2016 due to the Olympic Games in Rio. The Brazilian national team coach, Tite is The Olympic Games have already reacted to also a fan of holding matches at times which this need to adapt. The kick-off for the six do not compromise the performance and football matches that will take place in the physical integrity of the athletes. Recen- Amazonia Arena, in Manaus, for example, tly, as the coach for Corinthians during the have been changed. The Organizing Com- 2016 Brazilian Championship, he publicly mittee for the Olympic Football Tournament complained to the CBF (Brazilian Football in Manaus opted to push back the times of Confederation) for having planned a match

A Podium Too Far 15 Impacts: today

Cyclist between Corinthians and Botafogo at 11AM. Marlus “For athletes who have to work, this time is Freitas, who died in 2015 inhumane. And it won’t do to criticise me, as I know what I am talking about. Playing at 11AM is inhumane”, he said. Tite crea- ted such a fuss that the match kick off was moved to 4PM.

Player William Thuram, who played for the Campeonato Paulista da Série A-2 (São Pau- lo championship for second division teams in the state) for Mirassol in 2016, chimed in with Tite. “Playing in elevated tempera- tures is not only complicated in the North- East of Brazil. I played at the same time, 11AM, in São Paulo during the summer and it is complicated. Your body is put under ex- treme stress. And playing at 11AM changes the whole preparation routine. The player doesn’t sleep well, he doesn’t eat properly in the morning and then he has to subject himself to a superhuman effort in very high temperatures”, he said. ) appealed the decision, as they feared that they would no longer re- Players have also felt the impact of working ceive the same amount from TV channels in high temperatures. In the Rio champion- for buying match broadcasting rights. ship in 2010, the attacker Fred, from Flumi- nense, used the same word as Tite - “inhu- During the Olympics in Rio, a number of pro- mane” - to complain about a match played fessional athletes foresee difficulties in some at 4pm (summer time) against Bangu in Ma- sports. Those who are not acclimatized to racanã, at 39oC. the heat typical of the Rio de Janeiro winter may miss out on a chance to win a medal. In the same year, footballers from Rio , second best male tennis Grande do Sul took their complaint much player in the history of the sport in Brazil, be- further than the post-match press confe- lieves that European tennis players will find rences. The Sindicato dos Atletas Profis- it difficult to play during the Rio Olympics. sionais do Estado (State Professional Ath- “The problem for them is not so much the letes Union) went to the Labour Courts to temperature, but the humidity. Tennis play- request a ban on matches between 10AM ers are used to high temperatures and even and 6PM. Athletes won in the original hea- sudden changes in temperature, moving ring, but the FGF (Federação Gaúcha de from one continent to another. The problem Futebol: Football Federation for the state of with Rio will be the humidity. This makes the

16 A Podium Too Far player sweat a lot, lose liquid. It is easier to play in a dry climate. I believe that the En- WHAT SPECIALISTS SAID glish and the Swedish, for example, will fade out”, he said. William Thuram Trying to improve the situation for tennis (football player) players, the Professional Tennis Players As- “I played in São Paulo, sociation imposed a requirement that de- during the summer, at 11am. fends the physical integrity of the competi- It’s complicated. Your body is put tors: no match can be started at an ambient under extreme stress.” temperature above 34oC. At the end of the Brazil Open in 2001, in Salvador (Bahía), Tite Meligeni suffered with the high tempera- (Brazilian national team coach) tures. He lost a lot of fluid and as a conse- “Games at 11am are good for quence suffered severe cramps, which led supporters, who are at home him to lose the match. getting the barbeque ready. Robson Caetano, Brazil’s most successful But for athletes, who have to work, sprinter and holder of the South American that time is inhumane.” 100-metre sprint record since 1988, with a time of 10 seconds, confirms that both exces- Robson Caetano sive heat and cold are an athlete’s enemies. (retired sprinter) “Extreme heat leads to burnout. Cold leads “Human beings are a virus to muscle contractions. Both are terrible. attacking a living thing that However, athletics has tried to adapt. Com- is the planet. We are trying to petitions only take place between 9AM and adapt to adverse conditions 12PM at which point they stop. They start up that we ourselves are creating. again at 5PM and continue until 10PM. This We are all suffering from this and protects the physical integrity of athletes.” sport is no exception.”

A mountain biker Raiza Goulão, who is go- Raiza Goulão ing to represent Brazil in the Olympics, hopes (mountain biker) that the temperatures are amenable in Rio. “There is a rule in Mountain Bike. The com- “I think that the heat will petitions are cut short when the heat is very obviously have an impact intense.” The athlete reveals some measures on the Olympics, as we saw taken by athletes in this sport to flee the heat. in the test event. Europeans “If the heat is very intense I reduce my warm- are not so used to these up and I add a pre-competition ice jacket and temperatures, but large sun shade to keep my body cool up until the delegations have been start time.” She also believes that European working at acclimatization athletes will have trouble in her sport. for some time now.”

A Podium Too Far 17 Impacts: today

ADAPTATION IS POSSIBLE, BUT IT IS EXPENSIVE

he Qatar World Cup, in 2022, will be the countries that cannot organize events of this first in the history of the competition type due to the climate will be able to work Tto be held during the months of No- with us to find a solution”, stated Nasser vember and December. Traditionally played AL Khoter, president of the World Cup 2022 throughout the months of June and July in Organizing Committee. The technology, of Europe, the Americas and the East, the first course, comes at a price: the Cup in the des- World Cup in the Middle East was pushed ert is expected to cost Qatar US$ 30 billion, back to the end of the year because of the heat - in June and July the maximum tem- peratures in Doha easily hit 40oC. If it were played in the middle of the year, the temper- Fernando Maia/Agência O Globo atures would be prohibitive for the athletes. Changing the dates to the end of the year, the cup will be played during the end of au- tumn and beginning of winter. The new FIFA president, Gianni Infantino, has already of- ficially announced that the end of the World Cup 2022 will fall on the 18 December, one week before Christmas.

Even so, the organizers are building air-con- ditioned stadiums for the competition. “Our plans did not change. The stadiums will not be used solely for the World Cup, we also have a national championship which we will use them for, even though we play between September and May, when it is cooler. Air conditioning will be installed in the stadiums in any event, and may open up new horizons for other countries, as the technology is also applicable to open and public spaces. Other

18 A Podium Too Far or approximately R$ 100 billion. To compare, players were slower in their sprints and cov- the 2014 World Cup cost Brazil R$ 27 billion. ered less distance in each run. However, the efficiency of their passes improved, which re- Qatar is taking the hosting of the Cup in a searchers attributed to an unconscious effort hot country so seriously that it sent doctors by the professional players’ bodies to adapt. to Brazil in 2014 to study athletes’ perfor- mance on the hottest days of the competi- The textile industry has also contributed with tion. Two matches (Switzerland and Hondu- the so-called smart fabrics, used to either ras in Manaus and Holland and Mexico in maintain athletes’ bodies warm in low tem- Fortaleza) were played in conditions with an peratures or to cool their bodies in higher extreme risk of heatstroke, which made FIFA temperatures. In the tennis, since the 2014 impose technical breaks of 3 to 4 minutes af- Australian Open, when temperatures soared ter 30 minutes of play for players’ rest and to 40oC, only games programmed at the Rod rehydration. A study by Qatari doctors pub- Laver Arena and the Hisense Arena went lished in the British Medical Journal indicated ahead, as they have retractable roofs. The that, in matches during which the tempera- others, on open air courts, were postponed ture came near to these extreme conditions, for later dates.

Fluminense center-foward Fred cools himself duting WHAT SPECIALISTS SAID match against Bangu in 2010 Flavio Saretta (retired tennis player) “Playing in Rio takes it out of you. High temperatures, humidity. You must be very well prepared, hydrated and highly focused. If not, the climate will destroy you.”

Turibio Leite de Barros (physiologist) “The games at 11am are a success with the spectators and may even be more convenient for a Sunday given the timing. However, the ‘artists’ responsible for the show are exposed to risks that must be avoided.”

A Podium Too Far 19 Impacts: tomorrow

BRAZIL’S NEW CLIMATE

Brazil is already suffering the impacts of tute (INMET) across the country.3 In some global warming. However, understanding the places the thermometer rose considerably real extent of it is not so simple. Firstly, be- more than this.4 cause the data available in this area are either very sparse, very recent, or both. Also, South A significant part of this warming started to America is heavily influenced by the natural, take place at the beginning of the 21st Century, long-term warming and cooling cycles of the when temperatures rose above the recor-ded Atlantic and Pacific oceans.1 The “noise” of average for the period 1981-2010. Here, Bra- natural variability is so high that it makes it zil is in line with the world trend: since global difficult to distinguish climate change’s “sig- thermometer-based records began in 1880, nal” caused by greenhouse gases. 15 of the 16 hottest years have occurred since the year 2000. The 12 warmest winters Another complicating factor is that wea- in the last 50 years of the country’s history ther stations located in Brazilian cities suffer occurred between 1998 and 2015, with varia- from the urban heat island effect. Even with tions in temperature of more than 3°C above these uncertainties, it is possible to confirm the average in some regions, according to IN- that Brazil has warmed more than the global MET. The increase in average temperatures, average. While the world warmed 1°C last however, is only one of the possible means to century,2 Brazil warmed 1°C between the measure warming. In order to understand the years 1961 and 2015 alone, according to real impact of climate change on society, we the average of 237 weather stations main- must turn to the extremes. These are increa- tained by the National Meteorological Insti- sing throughout Brazil.

ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN BRAZIL FROM 1961 TO 2015 25,0 Average 24,0 temperatures 24,5 in Brazil on 23,5 degrees Celsius, 23,0 Médias Anuais as measured 22,5 Média Climatológica 1981-2010 in 237 22,0 meteorological stations kept

1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 by INMET [ Source: INMET [

20 A Podium Too Far Climatologists use several different indicators The trend in recent decades is for a lower to measure changes in climate. It is possible, relative humidity in cities such as Brasília and for example, to measure the average maxi- Presidente Prudente (São Paulo). mum temperatures of a specific year, or the average minimum temperatures. Or the num- Another factor that has attracted clima- ber of hot nights. Or the number of consecu- tologists’ attention is that there is a consis- tive days with temperatures above 25°C. Or tent trend towards increasing temperatures the number of consecutive dry or humid days. across the country. In Brasília, this increase represents 2°C since 1961,5 with an increased A number of Brazilian cities have experienced number of hot nights (the number of nights peaks of maximum temperatures in recent per decade with a temperature above 20°C years. This was particularly marked in 2015 – doubled in the capital between 1962/1970 thus far the hottest year in recorded history. and 2000/2010) and an increase in the num- That year, according to data compiled by the ber of the so-called “summer days”, with meteorologist Francisco de Assis Diniz, from maximum temperatures over 25°C. But those INMET, the following set new peak tempera- with real trouble sleeping are the people from ture records: Manaus (39°C), Goiânia (39.9°C), state: the central region of the state (37.7°C) and Brasília (36.4°C). suffered no less than a 5.6°C increase in the The town of Unaí in Minas Gerais reached average annual minimum temperatures du- temperatures of 42.5°C in October that year. ring this period, according to a report from Cuiabá broke another type of record - that the Brazilian Panel on Climate Change.6 of the greatest number of days with a maxi- mum temperature equal to or greater than Generally, the number of consecutive hot 40°C with a total of 15 days in the month of days increased and of consecutive humid September alone. In some cases, particularly days fell across most of the country. The in the central region of Brazil, the increase in exception is in the South, where the climate temperature is accompanied by an increased has been more variable and precipitation number of days with low relative humidity. has increased.

WARM NIGHTS IN BRASÍLIA 110 100 Number of nights 90 80 per decade with 70 temperatures above 60 o 50 20 C since the 40 beginning of record 30 20 keeping in the city; 10 the trend is also verified 0 1962-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 2010-2016 in other regions [ Source: INMET [

A Podium Too Far 21 Impacts: tomorrow

LIMITS TO ADAPTATION

hese extremes in temperature and WBGT, the most common, consists of a humidity directly impact the human combination of parameters - primarily tem- Tbody, which, as you saw in the previ- perature and humidity - to determine what ous chapters, functions best within a very the exposure time limit per hour for workers narrow temperature range. Throughout re- is if they are to maintain their body tempera- cent decades, scientists have created in- ture at a maximum of 38oC and avoid da- dices to measure the body’s resistance mage to the body. In situations of high tem- to elevated temperatures based on what perature and high relative humidity, the body is known about human physiology. Be- can no longer dissipate heat through sweat. ing aware of these indices is important for Heart rate increases to maintain transpira- workers’ health. Employers, for example, tion, temperature increases and the person must know how much outside work their enters into shock. employees can handle in very hot places before risking suffering heatstroke. The WBGT is different to maximum temperature: same applies to athletes. for the same air temperature, the index will be greater in Manaus (Amazonas) than in There are two main indicators used today in Cuiabá (MatoGrosso), given the high humi- occupational health: WBGT (wet-bulb globe dity of the Amazonian capital. In São Pau- temperature) and UTCI (universal thermal lo, for example, a maximum temperature of climate index). 30oC corresponds to a WBGT of 25oC. [ 100 50 40 CONSECUTIVE DRY DAYS 30 The maps show Inpe’s 20 15 regionalized global climate 10 model projections of the 5 number of consecutive dry -5 days in Brazil in 2071-2099 -10 compared to the present -15 (1961-1990). The map on -20 the right shows the high- -25 emissions scenario. -30 -40 -60 [

22 A Podium Too Far NUMBER OF DAYS WITH WGBT > 31OC (1980-2015) Capital cities 73 46 19 13 11 10 5 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 Natal Vitória Belém Cuiabá Maceió Manaus Macapá Teresina São Luís Salvador Fortaleza Boa Vista Rio Branco Porto Porto Florianópolis João Pessoa Rio de Janeiro Campo Grande Source: Hacon, S., and Oliveira, B., with Noaa data

In the literature, a WBGT below 28.6oC is Oliveira and Sandra Hacon, her surpervisor considered a situation of thermal comfort, at Fiocruz.7 in which an acclimatized worker underta- king moderate physical exertion does not Physiological limits also vary from person need to take a break from his/her activities. to person, confirms Oliveira. Depending on At 30.6oC it is only possible to work risk- factors such as acclimatization, living condi- free for half an hour of every hour. Wet-bulb tions and physical activity, this limit might be [ temperatures above 35oC are considered higher or lower. to be the limit for the human body: to live in such a climate it would be necessary to The WBGT index is also taken seriously in have access to air conditioning 24 hours a sports. FIFA has a rule according to which day. Beatriz Oliveira, a post-doc at the Fio- football matches must be interrupted (for cruz National School of Public Health, in Rio so-called “cooling breaks”) when the WBGT de Janeiro, explains that no place on earth reaches 32oC. In the 2014 World Cup, this has exceeded the wet-bulb temperatures threshold was exceeded in two matches. An of 35oC for long periods. But some places, analysis of athletes’ performance in the Cup Brazil among them, have come close. Be- showed that the higher the temperature, the tween 1980 and 2015, six Brazilian capitals lower the number of sprints and distance experienced ten days or more with WBGT covered by players in a run.8 This report uses above 31oC. The record holder is Cuiabá, FIFA criteria to define “risk to sporting prac- with 73 days, followed by Rio Branco, with tice” as being a threshold of 32oC for wet- 46 days, according to data compiled by bulb temperature. [

A Podium Too Far 23 Impacts: tomorrow [ WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS

f the current climate is cause for concern, not taken to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Brazil’s situation in the coming decades could These models indicate various degrees of Ibe even more alarming. Making forecasts for global warming in accordance with the tra- temperature, rain, humidity and other parame- jectory of global emissions. In the best-case ter variations, however, is equally challeng- scenario, the so-called RCP 2.6 (which takes ing - especially at the subcontinental level, this name because the additional energy con- such as the country or regional level. tributed by man to the climate system in this pathway is equivalent to 2.6 Watts per me- The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Cli- tre squared), the temperature in 2100 will in- mate Change), a committee of scientists se- crease around 1oC (between 0.3oC and 1.7oC) lected by the UN to assess the state of human in relation to the period 1986-2005;9 in the knowledge on the matter, published a series worst-case scenario, the so-called RCP 8.5 [ of results from global climate simulation mo- (in which the contribution of humanity to plan- dels in 2013 that show a much warmer world etary energy imbalance reaches 8.5 Watts per at the end of this century if drastic action is metre squared), the temperature would rise by [

6

5,5 ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES 5 The maps show the 4,5 temperature difference in degrees Celsius between 4 the end of the century 3,5 and present time in Brazil according to Inpe’s 3 regionalized projections 2,5 of two global climate models: Miroc-5 and 2 HadGEM2. The maps 1,5 in the second row consider a high- 1 emissions scenario 0,5 [

24 A Podium Too Far [

24 350 WARM SPELL DURATION 20 The map on the left shows 300 the number of days in the 16 year in which temperatures 250 12 remained for six consecutive 200 days among the highest 10 values of the 1961-1990 150 8 average. The map on the right 120 shows the projection for this 6 same parameter for 2071- 90 5 2099 in a high-emissions scenario, according to Inpe’s 4 60 regionalized version of the 3 30 HadGEM2 global model 2 1

1 [ [

[ 90 WARM NIGHTS 11,2 80 The map on the left shows the percentage of nights 11 70 in the year with higher 60 temperatures according to 10,8 the 1961-1990 average. 50 The map on the right 40 shows how mig that 10,6 percentage would be in 30 2071-2099 in a high- 10,4 20 emissions scenario, according to Inpe’s 10 regionalized version of the 10,2 HadGEM2 global model 1 [

Source: Chou, S. C. et al., Assessment of Climate Change over South America under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. American Journal of Climate Change, dec. 20145 [

A Podium Too Far 25 Impacts: tomorrow

Gabriel de Paiva/Agência O Globo 3.7oC (between 2.6oC and 4.8oC). Currently, even by rigorously complying with the targets proposed by countries in the Paris Agree- ment, the world would still warm up by nearly 3.1oC in relation to the pre-industrial era.10

The models used by the IPCC, however, ap- ply a 200 km by 200 km scale. This is a low resolution to apply to regional forecasts, as some climatological processes that affect a region, such as storm systems, occur on a small scale. In Brazil, this gap is being closed by a National Institute for Space Research (INPE) group, led by Sin Chan Chou. They cre- ated regionalized versions, with 20 km by 20 km cells, of two climatic models: the British HadGEM2, which tends to envision a warmer and drier world, and the Japanese MIROC5, which tends to envision a cooler and wetter world. These computational models were run to try to understand what will happen with the climate of South America and Brazil in the years 2040, 2070 and 2100, following two

possible hypotheses of CO2 emissions: the RCP 8.5 scenario and an intermediate sce- nario of RCP 4.5. Street thermometer during heatwave in In all scenarios, the Mid-West and parts of the Rio de Janeiro in 2003 South-East and the North of Brazil suffer sub-

1o 15 years Was the total warming measured out of the 16 hottest years ever in Brazil between 1961 ans 2015, measured since records began in considering average temperatures 1880 occurred in the 21st century. verified in 237 stations kept by the The only exception is 1998, when National Meteorology Institute all a very strong El Niño pushed over the country thermometres up all over the world

26 A Podium Too Far stantial warming by the end of the century. In 2100, in the worst-case scenario from the HadGEM2 model, parts of Amazonia rise 9oC in comparison to now. In 2040, the MIROC5 model forecasts a 2oC warming in relation to current summer temperatures, while the Had- GEM2 forecasts up to a 4oC increase.

The maps on the previous page show simu- lations of the annual average temperature in Brazil for the RCP 4.5 model (left column) and the RCP 8.5 model, according to MIROC5 forecasts (top line) and from HadGEM2.11

The INPE group also calculated other climate extreme parameters, such as the number of hot nights, in which nocturnal temperatures remain in the 90th percentile, that is, the high- est 10%, and the number of consecutive hot days. In the worst-case emissions scenario in the HadGEM2 model, most of the country would have hot days occurring practically all year round. Brazil would permanently be sub- ject to elevated thermal stress, incurring risks to the health of the population - particularly the elderly and children, who have more dif- ficulties with acclimatization. In some regions of Amazonia, it would be impossible to live without access to air conditioning.

9o 73 days Is the maximum warming Was the number of times the city forecast in parts of Amazonia of Cuiabá experienced wet-bulb by the end of the century globe temperatures above 31oC in high-emission scenarios (strong heat stress) since 1980; simulated by INPE’s wet-bulb temperatures consider regionalized climate models heat and air humidity

A Podium Too Far 27 Impacts: tomorrow

RISKS TO SPORTS

n Brazil there is still no overall map for wet- TIMES OF THE YEAR WHEN TEMPERATURES bulb temperatures which takes into con- WOULD BE TOO HIGH FOR OUTDOORS Isideration the regional forecast made by EXERCISE, ACCORDING TO HIGH-EMISSIONS INPE. An initial effort was made by Hacon SCENARIO FOR THE END OF THE CENTURY and Oliveira12 using data from the Climate Chip, Ruby Coast Research Centre project, SÃO PAULO CUIABÁ in Mapua, New Zealand.13 The New Zealand Time of the year: none Time of the year: group, led by Swedish researcher Tord Kjell- Annual heat stress: Jan/May, Aug/Dec moderate Annual heat stress: strom, created a system which allows for Average temperature: very strong maximum temperatures, WBGT and UTCI to 20.8oC Average temperature: be monitored in all areas around the world Average temperature, 2090: 27.4oC o using data from five global models used by 24.7 C Average temperature, 2090: Difference: 3.9oC 34oC the IPCC (including HadGEM and MIROC). Difference: 6.6oC Despite its low resolution, significant con- RIO DE JANEIRO clusions can be derived from the data com- Time of the year: none BRASÍLIA piled by the Fiocruz researchers. Annual heat stress: strong Time of the year: none Average temperature: Annual heat stress: strong 24.1oC Average temperature: 23oC Considering the worst-case emissions Average temperature, 2090: Average temperature, 2090: scenario (RCP 8.5), 98% of Brazilian mu- 27.8oC 28.5oC nicipalities would experience an average Difference: 3.7oC Difference: 5.5oC o temperature increase in excess of 4 C by GOIÂNIA the end of the century. At least 267 munici- Time of the year: none Time of the year: none palities would exceed the WBGT of 35oC in Annual heat stress: Annual heat stress: the hottest month of the year. These mu- moderate very strong nicipalities are in the North and Mid-West Average temperature: Average temperature: 18.6oC 24.9oC of the country. In total, 9.5 million people Average temperature, 2090: Average temperature, 2090: would be exposed to these conditions, with 22.4oC 30.5oC an expected increase in the number of ad- Difference: 3.8oC Difference: 5.6oC missions to hospital and deaths as a result PORTO ALEGRE PALMAS of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, Time of the year: none Time of the year: especially among two vulnerable groups - Annual heat stress: Feb/Apr, Oct/Nov the elderly and children. moderado Annual heat stress: Average temperature: very strong o o Using the data from Kjellstrom et al and the 20.5 C Average temperature: 27.7 C Average temperature, 2090: Average temperature, 2090: WBGT value considered by FIFA as harmful 23.7oC 33oC to athletes (“stop play”), it is also possible to Difference: 3.2oC Difference: 5.3oC

28 A Podium Too Far SÃO LUÍS ARACAJU Time of the year: Oct/Dec Time of the year: none Annual heat stress: Annual heat stress: strong very strong Average temperature: 26oC Average temperature: 27.9oC Average temperature, 2090: Average temperature, 2090: 29.8oC 32oC Difference: 3.8oC Difference: 4.1oC VITÓRIA Note: points replaced CAMPO GRANDE Time of the year: none by commas Time of the year: Annual heat stress: strong Source: www. Feb, Oct/Dec Average temperature: climatechip.org Annual heat stress: 25.2oC very strong Average temperature, 2090: Average temperature: 25oC 28.8oC Average temperature, 2090: Diferença: 3.6oC 30.4oC SALVADOR Difference: 5.4oC BELO HORIZONTE Time of the year: Jan, Dec Time of the year: none Annual heat stress: strong FLORIANÓPOLIS Annual heat stress: strong Average temperature: Time of the year: none Average temperature: 21.7oC 25.3oC Annual heat stress: Average temperature, 2090: Average temperature, 2090: moderate 26.6oC 30.4oC Average temperature: Difference: 4.9oC Difference: 5.1oC 19.6oC MANAUS Average temperature, 2090: BELÉM Time of the year: Year-round TERESINA 22.8oC Time of the year: Apr/Dec Annual heat stress: Time of the year: Oct/Nov Difference: 3.2oC Annual heat stress: very strong Annual heat stress: very strong Average temperature: very strong JOÃO PESSOA Average temperature: 28.2oC Average temperature: 28oC Time of the year: none 27.8oC Average temperature, 2090: Average temperature, 2090: Annual heat stress: strong Average temperature, 2090: 34.4oC 32.8oC Average temperature: 26.3oC 32oC Difference: 6.2oC Difference: 4.8oC Average temperature, 2090: Difference: 4.2C 29.7oC RIO BRANCO MACAPÁ Difference: 3.4oC PORTO VELHO Time of the year: Time of the year: Time of the year: Year-round, except July Aug, Oct/Dec RECIFE Year-round, except Mar/Jul Annual heat stress: Annual heat stress: Time of the year: none Annual heat stress: very strong very strong Annual heat stress: strong very strong Average temperature: Average temperature: 27.6C Average temperature: Average temperature: 27oC Average temperature, 2090: 25.8oC 26.8oC Average temperature, 2090: 31.9oC Average temperature, 2090: Average temperature, 2090: 33.5oC Difference: 4,3oC 29.3oC 33.3oC Difference: 6.5oC Difference: 3.5oC Difference: 6.5oC BOA VISTA FORTALEZA Time of the year: Sep/Nov NATAL MACEIÓ Time of the year: none Annual heat stress: Time of the year: none Time of the year: none Annual heat stress: strong very strong Annual heat stress: strong Annual heat stress: strong Average temperature: Average temperature: Average temperature: Average temperature: 27.2oC 27.6oC 26.5oC 25.5oC Average temperature, 2090: Average temperature, 2090: Average temperature, 2090: Average temperature, 2090: 30.8oC 33.3oC 30oC 29oC Difference: 3.6oC Difference: 5.7oC Difference: 3.5oC Difference: 3.5oC

A Podium Too Far 29 Impacts: tomorrow

estimate the risks to practising sport in the which the WBGT would be not equal to or country at the end of the century. above 32oC. In Cuiabá, June and July.

A total of 12 Brazilian capital cities may have Considering the UTCI index, all Brazilian wet-bulb temperatures which exceed 32oC capitals may suffer some degree of ther- throughout some months of the year, periods mal stress throughout the whole year. This in which it would be risky to do physical ex- will be moderate in São Paulo, Curitiba, ercise in environments without climate con- Florianópolis and Porto Alegre, severe in trol. The most dramatic situation is that of the South-East, North-East and in Brasília Manaus: if nothing is done to contain green- and very severe in the remaining capitals house gas emissions, the capital of Amazo- in the North and Mid-West. In the hottest nas may become a place in which sport is months of the year, parts of the Mid-West forbidden all year round. In Rio Branco, the and Amazonia would have extreme levels month of July would be the only month in of thermal stress.

ENDNOTES

1 – Painel Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas – analysis of the 2014 FIFA World Primeiro Relatório de Avaliação Cup in Brazil. British Medical Journal Sports Med, 2015, 49: 609-613 2 – Warming recorded in 2015 in relation to the average between 1850 and 1900, according 9 – IPCC, Climate Change 2013 – The Physical to the World Meteorological Organization. Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers. See: http://library.wmo.int/pmb_ged/ Available at http://www.climatechange2013.org/ wmo_1167_en.pdf 10 – Rogelj, J., et al., Paris Agreement proposals 3 – AssisDiniz, F., personal correspondence need a boost to keep warming well below 2oC. Nature, vol. 534, 30 de junho de 2016 4 – PBMC (Brazilian Panel on Climate Change), op. cit. 11 – Secretaria de Assuntos Estratégicos da Presidência da República, Brasil 2040 – 5 – Almeida, Morgana V., Índices de Monitoramento Resumo Executivo. e Detecção de Mudanças Climáticas no Centro-Oeste do Brasil. Master’s Dissertation 12 – Nobre, C., Marengo, J., Soares, W., Assad, - Universidade Federal de Campina Grande, E., Schaeffer, R., Scarano, F., e Hacon, S., December 2012 Riscos de Mudanças Climáticas no Brasil e Limites à Adaptação. Sumário executivo. 6 – PBMC, op. cit. Embaixada Britânica, 2016. Availableathttps:// 7 – Hacon, S., and Oliveira, B., www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/ personal correspondence uploads/attachment_data/file/504489/Clima- Sumario-v3.pdf 8 – Nassis, G. P., et al., The association of environmental heat stress and performance: 13 – www.climatechip.org

30 A Podium Too Far