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Chapter 2 Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and Radiaitve Forcing

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Chapter 2 Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and Radiaitve Forcing Second-Order Draft Chapter 2 IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report 1 Chapter 2: Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing 2 3 Coordinating Lead Authors: Piers Forster (UK), V. Ramaswamy (USA) 4 5 Lead Authors: Paulo Artaxo, Terje Berntsen, Richard Betts, Dave Fahey, Jim Haywood, Judith Lean, Dave 6 Lowe, Gunnar Myhre, John Nganga, Ronald Prinn, Graciela Raga, Michael Schulz, Rob Van Dorland 7 8 Contributing Authors: Greg Bodeker (New Zealand), Olivier Boucher (France), William Collins (USA), 9 Thomas J. Conway (USA), Ed Dlugokencky (USA), Jim Elkins (USA), David Etheridge (Australia), Paul 10 Fraser (Australia), Dave Keeling (USA),, Ralph Keeling (USA), Stefan Kinne (Germany), Keith Lassey 11 (New Zealand), Ulrike Lohmann (Switzerland), Andrew Manning (UK), Steve Montzka (USA), David Oram 12 (UK), Kath O'Shaughnessy (New Zealand), Steve Piper (USA), Michael Ponater (Germany), Navin 13 Ramankutty (India), Karen Rosenlof (USA), Robert Sausen (Germany), Dan Schwarzkopf (USA), Georgiy 14 Stenchikov (USA), Nicola Stuber (Germany), Toshihiko Takemura (Japan). Christiane Textor (France), Ray 15 Wang (USA), Ray Weiss (USA), Tim Whorf (USA). 16 17 Review Editors: Teruyuki Nakajima (Japan), V. Ramanathan (USA) 18 19 Date of Draft: 28 February 2006 20 21 Notes: TSU compiled version 22 23 24 Table of Contents 25 26 Executive Summary............................................................................................................................................................3 27 2.1 Introduction and Scope ..............................................................................................................................................8 28 2.2 Concept of Radiative Forcing (RF)............................................................................................................................8 29 2.3 Chemically and Radiatively Important Gases ..........................................................................................................10 30 2.3.1 Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ( CO2) ..........................................................................................................10 31 2.3.2 Atmospheric Methane (CH4 ) ......................................................................................................................13 32 2.3.3 Other Kyoto Protocol Gases (N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6)........................................................................15 33 2.3.4 Montreal Protocol Gases (CFCs and HCFCs) ...........................................................................................17 34 2.3.5 Trends in the Hydroxyl Free Radical (OH).................................................................................................18 35 2.3.6 Ozone ..........................................................................................................................................................20 36 2.3.7 Stratospheric Water Vapour .......................................................................................................................24 37 2.3.8 Observations of Long-Lived Greenhouse Gas Radiative Effects ................................................................24 38 2.4 Aerosols ...................................................................................................................................................................25 39 2.4.1 Introduction and Summary of the TAR........................................................................................................25 40 2.4.2 Observational Developments. ....................................................................................................................26 41 2.4.3 Surface-Based Retrievals ............................................................................................................................28 42 2.4.4 Advances in Modelling................................................................................................................................29 43 2.4.5 Direct Radiative Forcing ............................................................................................................................30 44 2.4.6 Cloud-Aerosol Interaction ..........................................................................................................................38 45 2.5 Anthropogenic Changes in Surface Albedo and the Surface Energy Budget...........................................................46 46 2.5.1 Introduction.................................................................................................................................................46 47 2.5.2 Changes in Land Cover Since 1750 ............................................................................................................46 48 2.5.3 Radiative Forcing by Anthropogenic Surface Albedo Change ...................................................................47 49 2.5.4 The Radiative Forcing of Black Carbon in Snow and Ice...........................................................................49 50 2.5.5 Other Effects of Anthropogenic Changes in Land Cover............................................................................49 51 2.5.6 Tropospheric Water Vapour from Anthropogenic Sources.........................................................................49 52 2.5.7 Anthropogenic Heat Release.......................................................................................................................50 53 2.5.8 Effects of CO2 Changes on Climate via Plant Physiology: “Physiological Forcing”................................50 54 2.6 Contrails and Aircraft-Induced Cloudiness..............................................................................................................50 55 2.6.1 Introduction.................................................................................................................................................51 56 2.6.2 Radiative-Forcing Estimates for Persistent Line-Shaped Contrails ...........................................................51 57 2.6.3 Radiative-Forcing Estimates for Aviation-Induced Cloudiness..................................................................51 58 2.6.4 Aviation Aerosols ........................................................................................................................................52 59 2.7 Natural Forcings.......................................................................................................................................................53 60 2.7.1 Solar Variability..........................................................................................................................................53 Do Not Cite or Quote 2-1 Total pages: 133 Second-Order Draft Chapter 2 IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report 1 2.7.2 Explosive Volcanic Activity.........................................................................................................................58 2 2.8 Utility of Radiative Forcing .....................................................................................................................................61 3 2.8.1 Vertical Forcing Patterns and Surface Energy Balance Changes ..............................................................61 4 2.8.2 Spatial Patterns of Radiative Forcing.........................................................................................................61 5 2.8.3 Alternative Methods of Calculating Radiative Forcing ..............................................................................61 6 2.8.4 Linearity of Forcing-Response Relationship...............................................................................................62 7 2.8.5 Efficacy .......................................................................................................................................................62 8 2.8.6 Efficacy and the Forcing-Response Relationship.......................................................................................65 9 2.9 Synthesis ..................................................................................................................................................................65 10 2.9.1 Uncertainties in Radiative Forcing.............................................................................................................66 11 2.9.2 Global Mean Radiative Forcing .................................................................................................................66 12 2.9.3 Global-Mean Radiative Forcing by Emission Precursor............................................................................67 13 2.9.4 Time Evolution of Radiative Forcing and Surface Forcing ........................................................................68 14 2.9.5 Spatial Patterns of Radiative Forcing and Surface Forcing.......................................................................69 15 2.10 GWPs and Other Metrics for Comparing Different Emissions................................................................................69 16 2.10.1 Definition of an emission Metric and the GWP...........................................................................................69 17 2.10.2 Direct GWPs ...............................................................................................................................................71 18 2.10.3 Indirect GWPs.............................................................................................................................................72
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