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Textor 19 (France, Germany), Ray Wang (USA), Ray Weiss (USA), Tim Whorf (USA) 20 21 Review Editors: Teruyuki Nakajima (Japan), V Final Draft Chapter 2 IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report 1 Chapter 2: Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing 2 3 Coordinating Lead Authors: Piers Forster (UK), V. Ramaswamy (USA) 4 5 Lead Authors: Paulo Artaxo (Brasil), Terje Berntsen (Norway), Richard A. Betts (UK), David W. Fahey 6 (USA), James Haywood (UK), Judith Lean (USA), David C. Lowe (New Zealand), Gunnar Myhre 7 (Norway), John Nganga (Kenya), Ronald Prinn (USA, New Zealand), Graciela Raga (Mexico, Argentina), 8 Michael Schulz (France, Germany), Robert Van Dorland (Netherlands) 9 10 Contributing Authors: Greg Bodeker (New Zealand), Olivier Boucher (UK, France), William Collins 11 (USA), Thomas J. Conway (USA), Ed Dlugokencky (USA), James W. Elkins (USA), David Etheridge 12 (Australia), Peter Foukal (USA), Paul Fraser (Australia), Marvin Geller (USA), Fortunat Joos (Switzerland), 13 C. David Keeling (USA), Ralph Keeling (USA), Stefan Kinne (Germany), Keith Lassey (New Zealand), 14 Ulrike Lohmann (Switzerland), Andrew Manning (UK, New Zealand), Steve Montzka (USA), David Oram 15 (UK), Kath O'Shaughnessy (New Zealand), Stephen Piper (USA), Gian-Kasper Plattner (Switzerland), 16 Michael Ponater (Germany), Navin Ramankutty (USA, India), George Reid (USA), David Rind (USA), 17 Karen Rosenlof (USA), Robert Sausen (Germany), Dan Schwarzkopf (USA), S. Solanki (Germany), 18 Georgiy Stenchikov (USA), Nicola Stuber (UK, Germany), Toshihiko Takemura (Japan), Christiane Textor 19 (France, Germany), Ray Wang (USA), Ray Weiss (USA), Tim Whorf (USA) 20 21 Review Editors: Teruyuki Nakajima (Japan), V. Ramanathan (USA) 22 23 Date of Draft: 27 October 2006 24 25 Do Not Cite or Quote 2-1 Total pages: 129 Final Draft Chapter 2 IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report 1 Table of Contents 2 3 Executive Summary............................................................................................................................................................3 4 2.1 Introduction and Scope ..............................................................................................................................................6 5 2.2 Concept of Radiative Forcing (RF)............................................................................................................................6 6 2.3 Chemically and Radiatively Important Gases ............................................................................................................8 7 2.3.1 Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ( CO2) ............................................................................................................8 8 2.3.2 Atmospheric Methane (CH4 ) ......................................................................................................................11 9 2.3.3 Other Kyoto Protocol Gases (N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6)........................................................................13 10 2.3.4 Montreal Protocol Gases (CFCs and HCFCs) ...........................................................................................15 11 2.3.5 Trends in the Hydroxyl Free Radical (OH).................................................................................................16 12 2.3.6 Ozone ..........................................................................................................................................................18 13 2.3.7 Stratospheric Water Vapour .......................................................................................................................21 14 2.3.8 Observations of Long-Lived Greenhouse Gas Radiative Effects ................................................................22 15 2.4 Aerosols ...................................................................................................................................................................22 16 2.4.1 Introduction and Summary of the Third Assessment Report .......................................................................22 17 2.4.2 Developments Related to Aerosol Observations ........................................................................................24 18 2.4.3 Advances in Modelling the Aerosol Direct Effect .......................................................................................27 19 2.4.4 Estimates of Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing...........................................................................................28 20 2.4.5 Aerosol Influence on Clouds (Cloud Albedo Effect) ...................................................................................37 21 2.5 Anthropogenic Changes in Surface Albedo and the Surface Energy Budget...........................................................44 22 2.5.1 Introduction.................................................................................................................................................44 23 2.5.2 Changes in Land Cover Since 1750 ............................................................................................................45 24 2.5.3 Radiative Forcing by Anthropogenic Surface Albedo Change: Land-use ..................................................45 25 2.5.4 Radiative Forcing by Anthropogenic Surface Albedo Change: Black Carbon in Snow and Ice.................47 26 2.5.5 Other Effects of Anthropogenic Changes in Land Cover............................................................................47 27 2.5.6 Tropospheric Water Vapour from Anthropogenic Sources.........................................................................48 28 2.5.7 Anthropogenic Heat Release.......................................................................................................................48 29 2.5.8 Effects of CO2 Changes on Climate via Plant Physiology: “Physiological Forcing”................................48 30 2.6 Contrails and Aircraft-Induced Cloudiness..............................................................................................................49 31 2.6.1 Introduction.................................................................................................................................................49 32 2.6.2 Radiative Forcing Estimates for Persistent Line-Shaped Contrails............................................................49 33 2.6.3 Radiative Forcing Estimates for Aviation-Induced Cloudiness ..................................................................49 34 2.6.4 Aviation Aerosols ........................................................................................................................................51 35 2.7 Natural Forcings.......................................................................................................................................................51 36 2.7.1 Solar Variability..........................................................................................................................................51 37 2.7.2 Explosive Volcanic Activity.........................................................................................................................56 38 2.8 Utility of Radiative Forcing .....................................................................................................................................58 39 2.8.1 Vertical Forcing Patterns and Surface Energy Balance Changes ..............................................................59 40 2.8.2 Spatial Patterns of Radiative Forcing.........................................................................................................59 41 2.8.3 Alternative Methods of Calculating Radiative Forcing ..............................................................................59 42 2.8.4 Linearity of the Forcing-Response Relationship.........................................................................................60 43 2.8.5 Efficacy and Effective Radiative Forcing....................................................................................................60 44 2.8.6 Efficacy and the Forcing-Response Relationship.......................................................................................62 45 2.9 Synthesis ..................................................................................................................................................................63 46 2.9.1 Uncertainties in Radiative Forcing.............................................................................................................63 47 2.9.2 Global Mean Radiative Forcing .................................................................................................................64 48 2.9.3 Global-Mean Radiative Forcing by Emission Precursor............................................................................65 49 2.9.4 Future Climate Impact of Current Emissions .............................................................................................65 50 2.9.5 Time Evolution of Radiative Forcing and Surface Forcing ........................................................................66 51 2.9.6 Spatial Patterns of Radiative Forcing and Surface Forcing.......................................................................67 52 2.10 GWPs and Other Metrics for Comparing Different Emissions................................................................................67 53 2.10.1 Definition of an emission Metric and the GWP...........................................................................................67 54 2.10.2 Direct GWPs ...............................................................................................................................................69
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