This Is Nature; This Is Un-Nature: Reading the Keeling Curve
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Joshua P. Howe Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/envhis/article-abstract/20/2/286/528915 by OUP site access user on 24 May 2019 This Is Nature; This Is Un-Nature: Reading the Keeling Curve Data images make odd cultural artifacts. On one hand, scientists pre- sent their data in images as a form of visual communication, intended, like other forms of visual culture, to convey both specific information and larger culturally coded messages. On the other hand, scientists typically hew to methods of measurement and math- ematical analysis intended to ensure that the data they present reflect some objective reality that transcends the cultural. To the extent that the data tell a cultural story, it is supposed to “speak for itself.” Such is the case with the Keeling Curve, the oscillating upward- sloping graph of measured atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) that has come to stand as one of the most important and powerful scien- tific symbols of anthropogenic climate change. To a lay reader, it may seem odd to read a simple measure of atmospheric gas through the many-sided prism of modern American life the way you might read a historical photograph or piece of art. And yet the Keeling Curve func- tions as much as a symbol in our collective cultural understanding of climate change as it does a representation of data about CO2. The Keeling Curve faithfully represents something quite real—the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere since 1958, expressed in parts per million (ppm)—but it is also a constructed image ripe for reading, similar to a painting, a photograph, a landscape, or a written document. The Keeling Curve conveys information about CO2, but it VC The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Society for Environmental History and the Forest History Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: [email protected] Joshua P. Howe, “This Is Nature; This Is Un-Nature: Reading the Keeling Curve,” Environmental History 20 (2015): 286–293 doi: 10.1093/envhis/emv005 This Is Nature; This Is Un-Nature 287 Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/envhis/article-abstract/20/2/286/528915 by OUP site access user on 24 May 2019 Figure 1. Atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory. The oscillating red line of the Keeling Curve tracks the actual monthly average of measured atmospheric CO2 over time while the solid, upward sloping black line represents the same data corrected for the seasonal cycles that cause the oscillations. Credit: Dr. Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL and Dr. Ralph Keeling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 2014. Pieter Tans and Ralph Keeling, Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Earth Systems Research Laboratory Global Greenhouse Network, http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends. also makes a set of culturally specific and politically salient claims about nature and historical time that we ought to take seriously as we think about the intractable riddle of climate change. CONSTRUCTING THE CURVE At its heart, the Keeling Curve is a scientific image with scientific objectives in mind, and any reading of the Keeling Curve as a cultural symbol necessarily starts with the scientific construction of the im- age. In figure 1, for example, the curve measures a single variable, CO2, over time. But the graph is not a plot of raw data. Rather, the oscillating upward sloping line from 1958 to 2014 runs through points representing the average monthly mean of the daily averages of measured atmospheric CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory, as cor- roborated by measurements at other observing stations around the world. Figure 2, an interactive image of the Keeling Curve from the Earth Systems Research Laboratory of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), helps to demonstrate this construction process. In the image, individual measurements, ag- gregated and averaged over increasing increments of time, constitute recognizable trends. In figure 1—the most recognizable version of the curve—NOAA portrays these trends in lines that smooth out 288 Environmental History 20 (April 2015) Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/envhis/article-abstract/20/2/286/528915 by OUP site access user on 24 May 2019 Figure 2. Mauna Loa Daily, Monthly and Weekly Averages for Two Years. Recorded daily averages from multiple measurements (in blue) provide the basis for weekly averages (in green), which in turn are used to construct the monthly averages (in red) that constitute the familiar Keeling Curve. Credit: Dr. Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL and Dr. Ralph Keeling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 2014. Tans and Keeling, “Interactive Plots,” Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Earth Systems Research Laboratory Global Greenhouse Network, http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/graph.html. variations and irregularities in individual measurements and short- term averages—that is, outliers among the dots—in order to make meaning out of changes in CO2 over months and years. In most versions of the Keeling Curve, this aggregating and averag- ing stop at the monthly mean; we recognize the Keeling Curve not just by its upward slope, but also by its peculiar wavelike shape. Frequently, depictions of the curve like the one in figure 1 include both the oscillating line of monthly means (in red) and a straighter, more direct line of seasonally corrected data that roughly approxi- 1 mate the annual average measured CO2 over time (in black). Rarely, however, do we see this straight line alone; if we do, we do not recog- nize it as the “Keeling Curve.” In a few important respects, we need both lines to interpret the curve. The Keeling Curve of figure 1 is a form of storytelling, and it actually tells two mutually instructive stories. The line of annual average tells a long-term story of change, depicting a troublingly per- sistent rise in atmospheric CO2 over the past half century that most scientists recognize as a consequence of humans’ collective burning of fossil fuels. Embedded within that long story, however, is an This Is Nature; This Is Un-Nature 289 important story of annual oscillation operating independently of human influence. Across the globe, plants fix atmospheric carbon in the form of new shoots, leaves, blossoms, and flowers during the Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/envhis/article-abstract/20/2/286/528915 by OUP site access user on 24 May 2019 spring and summer months—the growing season—and then release that carbon back into the atmosphere in the fall and winter months as they die or drop their leaves. Because the Northern Hemisphere contains the majority of the earth’s continental landmasses—and a corresponding majority of its seasonal plants—measurements of atmospheric CO2 reflect the annual uptake and release of CO2 as an artifact of the Northern Hemisphere’s seasonal cycles. The annual os- cillations depicted in the Keeling Curve reflect this cycle of growth and decay. The Keeling Curve thus also uses scientific data to tell the story of the earth “breathing.”2 There are two good reasons to tell these stories together. First, the two stories—one of cyclical planetary respiration and the other of sec- ular atmospheric change—reflect the two major important insights of the curve’s namesake, Charles David Keeling. In 1956 Keeling was a postdoctoral fellow in geochemistry at Cal Tech with Harrison Brown, who encouraged Keeling to begin investigating the transfer of carbon between water, rock, and air over time. In taking control samples for the highly sensitive gas manometer that he had designed for the carbon project, Keeling noted a consistency in the “back- ground” concentrations of CO2 that he took from places as different and disparate as the lab in Pasadena and the forests of the Olympic Peninsula in Washington State.3 In 1957 Roger Revelle of the Scripps Institute of Oceanography and Harry Wexler of the US Weather Bureau secured funding for Keeling to conduct continuous CO2 mea- surements at the Mauna Loa Observatory, and by 1960 Keeling had both identified the cyclical variations of atmospheric CO2 as an arti- fact of seasonal growth and decay and noted a consistent year-to-year increase of about 1 ppm in background measures of atmospheric 4 CO2. To portray the two phenomena together consolidates Keeling’s career into a form of well-deserved data-driven scientific hagiography. THIS IS NATURE; THIS IS UN-NATURE There is a second, more important way to read these two phenom- ena together, however. The upward-sloping oscillations of the Keeling Curve embed a cyclical story about the processes of nature— seasonal growth and decay—within a larger story about the “un- nature” of anthropogenic climate change. In figure 1, the red line of monthly means oscillating up and down within the curve represents the earth breathing. This is nature. The cycle is annual, but the organic process is timeless—influenced 290 Environmental History 20 (April 2015) by human activities, perhaps, but ultimately independent of any- thing short of tectonic change. And yet the Keeling Curve as a whole is not timeless. The oscillating curve of monthly means does not run Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/envhis/article-abstract/20/2/286/528915 by OUP site access user on 24 May 2019 straight across the page; it slopes upward and to the right along the black line of corrected averages as it follows the half-century human time scale demarcated by the numbers at the bottom of the graph. The earth continues to inhale and exhale as it has for millions of years, but humans have changed the air that it breathes. This is un- nature, or nature that humans have tipped on its side. Scientists don’t have to make an explicit normative judgment about rising CO2 when they present the two lines of the curve together.