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Climate Change: How Do We Know We're Not Wrong? Naomi Oreskes
Changing Planet: Past, Present, Future Lecture 4 – Climate Change: How Do We Know We’re Not Wrong? Naomi Oreskes, PhD 1. Start of Lecture Four (0:16) [ANNOUNCER:] From the Howard Hughes Medical Institute...The 2012 Holiday Lectures on Science. This year's lectures: "Changing Planet: Past, Present, Future," will be given by Dr. Andrew Knoll, Professor of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology at Harvard University; Dr. Naomi Oreskes, Professor of History and Science Studies at the University of California, San Diego; and Dr. Daniel Schrag, Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Harvard University. The fourth lecture is titled: Climate Change: How Do We Know We're Not Wrong? And now, a brief video to introduce our lecturer Dr. Naomi Oreskes. 2. Profile of Dr. Naomi Oreskes (1:14) [DR. ORESKES:] One thing that's really important for all people to understand is that the whole notion of certainty is mistaken, and it's something that climate skeptics and deniers and the opponents of evolution really exploit. Many of us think that scientific knowledge is certain, so therefore if someone comes along and points out the uncertainties in a certain scientific body of knowledge, we think that undermines the science, we think that means that there's a problem in the science, and so part of my message is to say that that view of science is incorrect, that the reality of science is that it's always uncertain because if we're actually doing research, it means that we're asking questions, and if we're asking questions, then by definition we're asking questions about things we don't already know about, so uncertainty is part of the lifeblood of science, it's something we need to embrace and realize it's a good thing, not a bad thing. -
CO2, Hothouse and Snowball Earth
CO2, Hothouse and Snowball Earth Gareth E. Roberts Department of Mathematics and Computer Science College of the Holy Cross Worcester, MA, USA Mathematical Models MATH 303 Fall 2018 November 12 and 14, 2018 Roberts (Holy Cross) CO2, Hothouse and Snowball Earth Mathematical Models 1 / 42 Lecture Outline The Greenhouse Effect The Keeling Curve and the Earth’s climate history Consequences of Global Warming The long- and short-term carbon cycles and silicate weathering The Snowball Earth hypothesis Roberts (Holy Cross) CO2, Hothouse and Snowball Earth Mathematical Models 2 / 42 Chapter 1 Historical Overview of Climate Change Science Frequently Asked Question 1.3 What is the Greenhouse Effect? The Sun powers Earth’s climate, radiating energy at very short Earth’s natural greenhouse effect makes life as we know it pos- wavelengths, predominately in the visible or near-visible (e.g., ul- sible. However, human activities, primarily the burning of fossil traviolet) part of the spectrum. Roughly one-third of the solar fuels and clearing of forests, have greatly intensifi ed the natural energy that reaches the top of Earth’s atmosphere is refl ected di- greenhouse effect, causing global warming. rectly back to space. The remaining two-thirds is absorbed by the The two most abundant gases in the atmosphere, nitrogen surface and, to a lesser extent, by the atmosphere. To balance the (comprising 78% of the dry atmosphere) and oxygen (comprising absorbed incoming energy, the Earth must, on average, radiate the 21%), exert almost no greenhouse effect. Instead, the greenhouse same amount of energy back to space. Because the Earth is much effect comes from molecules that are more complex and much less colder than the Sun, it radiates at much longer wavelengths, pri- common. -
Keeling Curve: Result, Interpretation & Global Monitoring
International Journal for Empirical Education and Research Keeling Curve: Result, Interpretation & Global Monitoring Augustyn Ostrowski Faculty of Geography & Geology Jagiellonian University Email: [email protected] (Author of Correspondence) Poland Abstract The Keeling Curve is a graph of the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere based on continuous measurements taken at the Mauna Loa Observatory on the island of Hawaii from 1958 to the present day. The curve is named for the scientist Charles David Keeling, who started the monitoring program and supervised it until his death in 2005. Keywords: Mauna Loa Measurements; Results and Interpretation; Global Monitoring; Ralph Keeling. ISSN Online: 2616-4833 ISSN Print: 2616-4817 35 1. Introduction Keeling's measurements showed the first significant evidence of rapidly increasing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. According to Dr Naomi Oreskes, Professor of History of Science at Harvard University, the Keeling curve is one of the most important scientific works of the 20th century. Many scientists credit the Keeling curve with first bringing the world's attention to the current increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Prior to the 1950s, measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations had been taken on an ad hoc basis at a variety of locations. In 1938, engineer and amateur meteorologist Guy Stewart Callendar compared datasets of atmospheric carbon dioxide from Kew in 1898-1901, which averaged 274 parts per million by volume (ppm), and from the eastern United States in 1936-1938, which averaged 310 ppmv, and concluded that carbon dioxide concentrations were rising due to anthropogenic emissions. However, Callendar's findings were not widely accepted by the scientific community due to the patchy nature of the measurements. -
How I Stave Off Despair As a Climate Scientist So Much Warming, So Many Dire Effects, So Little Action — Dave Reay Reveals YVONNE COOPER/UNIV
WORLD VIEW A personal take on events How I stave off despair as a climate scientist So much warming, so many dire effects, so little action — Dave Reay reveals YVONNE COOPER/UNIV. EDINBURGH COOPER/UNIV. YVONNE how dreams of soggy soil and seaweed keep him going. here’s a curve that is quietly plotting our performance as a behind my eyelids, that’s what helps me sleep. species. This curve is not a commodity price or a technology That, and a personal plot to pull a lifetime’s worth of carbon out of index. It has no agenda or steering committee. It is the Keeling the atmosphere. Tcurve. It is painfully consistent in its trajectory and brutally honest in The dream with which I’ve bored my family to distraction for the its graphical indictment of our society as one that stands ready to stand past 20 years is going truly ‘net zero’: paring down emissions to the by as islands submerge, cities burn and coasts flood. bare minimum, and then managing a chunk of land to try to sequester Established by Charles David Keeling in 1958, the curve records the remainder. how much carbon dioxide is in our atmosphere — fewer than 330 parts Last month, that dream came true. Years of saving, a large dollop per million then, more than 400 today. Each month for the past decade, of luck and an even larger loan made me and my wife the nervous my geeky addiction has been to scan the latest data. To search for some owners of 28 hectares of rough grassland and wild rocky shores in hint that ‘Stabilization Day’ will come: when global emissions and the west of Scotland. -
The Kelvin and Temperature Measurements
Volume 106, Number 1, January–February 2001 Journal of Research of the National Institute of Standards and Technology [J. Res. Natl. Inst. Stand. Technol. 106, 105–149 (2001)] The Kelvin and Temperature Measurements Volume 106 Number 1 January–February 2001 B. W. Mangum, G. T. Furukawa, The International Temperature Scale of are available to the thermometry commu- K. G. Kreider, C. W. Meyer, D. C. 1990 (ITS-90) is defined from 0.65 K nity are described. Part II of the paper Ripple, G. F. Strouse, W. L. Tew, upwards to the highest temperature measur- describes the realization of temperature able by spectral radiation thermometry, above 1234.93 K for which the ITS-90 is M. R. Moldover, B. Carol Johnson, the radiation thermometry being based on defined in terms of the calibration of spec- H. W. Yoon, C. E. Gibson, and the Planck radiation law. When it was troradiometers using reference blackbody R. D. Saunders developed, the ITS-90 represented thermo- sources that are at the temperature of the dynamic temperatures as closely as pos- equilibrium liquid-solid phase transition National Institute of Standards and sible. Part I of this paper describes the real- of pure silver, gold, or copper. The realiza- Technology, ization of contact thermometry up to tion of temperature from absolute spec- 1234.93 K, the temperature range in which tral or total radiometry over the tempera- Gaithersburg, MD 20899-0001 the ITS-90 is defined in terms of calibra- ture range from about 60 K to 3000 K is [email protected] tion of thermometers at 15 fixed points and also described. -
The Kibble Balance and the Kilogram
C. R. Physique 20 (2019) 55–63 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Comptes Rendus Physique www.sciencedirect.com The new International System of Units / Le nouveau Système international d’unités The Kibble balance and the kilogram La balance de Kibble et le kilogramme ∗ Stephan Schlamminger , Darine Haddad NIST, 100 Bureau Drive, Gaithersburg, MD 20899, USA a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: Dr. Bryan Kibble invented the watt balance in 1975 to improve the realization of the unit Available online 25 March 2019 for electrical current, the ampere. With the discovery of the Quantum Hall effect in 1980 by Dr. Klaus von Klitzing and in conjunction with the previously predicted Josephson effect, Keywords: this mechanical apparatus could be used to measure the Planck constant h. Following a Unit of mass proposal by Quinn, Mills, Williams, Taylor, and Mohr, the Kibble balance can be used to Kilogram Planck constant realize the unit of mass, the kilogram, by fixing the numerical value of Planck’s constant. Kibble balance In 2017, the watt balance was renamed to the Kibble balance to honor the inventor, who Revised SI passed in 2016. This article explains the Kibble balance, its role in the redefinition of the Josephson effect unit of mass, and attempts an outlook of the future. Quantum Hall effect Published by Elsevier Masson SAS on behalf of Académie des sciences. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license Mots-clés : (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). -
Draft 9Th Edition of the SI Brochure
—————————————————————————— Bureau International des Poids et Mesures The International System of Units (SI) 9th edition 2019 —————————————————— 2 ▪ Draft of the ninth SI Brochure, 5 February 2018 The BIPM and the Metre Convention The International Bureau of Weights and Measures (BIPM) was set up by the Metre As of 20 May 2019, fifty Convention signed in Paris on 20 May 1875 by seventeen States during the final session of nine States were Members of this Convention: the diplomatic Conference of the Metre. This Convention was amended in 1921. Argentina, Australia, 2 Austria, Belgium, Brazil, The BIPM has its headquarters near Paris, in the grounds (43 520 m ) of the Pavillon de Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Breteuil (Parc de Saint-Cloud) placed at its disposal by the French Government; its upkeep China, Colombia, Croatia, is financed jointly by the Member States of the Metre Convention. Czech Republic, Denmark, Egypt, Finland, The task of the BIPM is to ensure worldwide unification of measurements; its function is France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, thus to: Iran (Islamic Rep. of), • establish fundamental standards and scales for the measurement of the principal physical Iraq, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, quantities and maintain the international prototypes; Kenya, Korea (Republic • carry out comparisons of national and international standards; of), Lithuania, Malaysia, • ensure the coordination of corresponding measurement techniques; Mexico, Montenegro, Netherlands, New • carry out and coordinate measurements of the fundamental physical constants relevant Zealand, Norway, to these activities. Pakistan, Poland, Portugal, Romania, The BIPM operates under the exclusive supervision of the International Committee for Russian Federation, Saudi Weights and Measures (CIPM) which itself comes under the authority of the General Arabia, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Conference on Weights and Measures (CGPM) and reports to it on the work accomplished Africa, Spain, Sweden, by the BIPM. -
A Rational Discussion of Climate Change: the Science, the Evidence, the Response
A RATIONAL DISCUSSION OF CLIMATE CHANGE: THE SCIENCE, THE EVIDENCE, THE RESPONSE HEARING BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED ELEVENTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION NOVEMBER 17, 2010 Serial No. 111–114 Printed for the use of the Committee on Science and Technology ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.science.house.gov U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 62–618PDF WASHINGTON : 2010 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402–0001 COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY HON. BART GORDON, Tennessee, Chair JERRY F. COSTELLO, Illinois RALPH M. HALL, Texas EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas F. JAMES SENSENBRENNER JR., LYNN C. WOOLSEY, California Wisconsin DAVID WU, Oregon LAMAR S. SMITH, Texas BRIAN BAIRD, Washington DANA ROHRABACHER, California BRAD MILLER, North Carolina ROSCOE G. BARTLETT, Maryland DANIEL LIPINSKI, Illinois VERNON J. EHLERS, Michigan GABRIELLE GIFFORDS, Arizona FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma DONNA F. EDWARDS, Maryland JUDY BIGGERT, Illinois MARCIA L. FUDGE, Ohio W. TODD AKIN, Missouri BEN R. LUJA´ N, New Mexico RANDY NEUGEBAUER, Texas PAUL D. TONKO, New York BOB INGLIS, South Carolina STEVEN R. ROTHMAN, New Jersey MICHAEL T. MCCAUL, Texas JIM MATHESON, Utah MARIO DIAZ-BALART, Florida LINCOLN DAVIS, Tennessee BRIAN P. BILBRAY, California BEN CHANDLER, Kentucky ADRIAN SMITH, Nebraska RUSS CARNAHAN, Missouri PAUL C. BROUN, Georgia BARON P. HILL, Indiana PETE OLSON, Texas HARRY E. MITCHELL, Arizona CHARLES A. WILSON, Ohio KATHLEEN DAHLKEMPER, Pennsylvania ALAN GRAYSON, Florida SUZANNE M. -
The International System of Units (SI)
NAT'L INST. OF STAND & TECH NIST National Institute of Standards and Technology Technology Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce NIST Special Publication 330 2001 Edition The International System of Units (SI) 4. Barry N. Taylor, Editor r A o o L57 330 2oOI rhe National Institute of Standards and Technology was established in 1988 by Congress to "assist industry in the development of technology . needed to improve product quality, to modernize manufacturing processes, to ensure product reliability . and to facilitate rapid commercialization ... of products based on new scientific discoveries." NIST, originally founded as the National Bureau of Standards in 1901, works to strengthen U.S. industry's competitiveness; advance science and engineering; and improve public health, safety, and the environment. One of the agency's basic functions is to develop, maintain, and retain custody of the national standards of measurement, and provide the means and methods for comparing standards used in science, engineering, manufacturing, commerce, industry, and education with the standards adopted or recognized by the Federal Government. As an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department's Technology Administration, NIST conducts basic and applied research in the physical sciences and engineering, and develops measurement techniques, test methods, standards, and related services. The Institute does generic and precompetitive work on new and advanced technologies. NIST's research facilities are located at Gaithersburg, MD 20899, and at Boulder, CO 80303. -
LECTURE #23: Mega Disasters – Climate Change
GEOL 0820 Ramsey Natural Disasters Spring, 2021 LECTURE #23: Mega Disasters – Climate Change Date: 19 April 2021 I. Final Exam • same access as the mid-term exams using Canvas o I will send a reminder email to your Pitt email account over the weekend o the exam will “open” at the start of the assigned time period: Wednesday, April 28th at 2:00pm and close at 3:15pm • same format as the mid-term exams o except a little longer (~75 questions) nd o material: 2 half of hurricanes, flooding (plus the video), wildfires, mega- disasters o weeks 11 – 14 II. Early Earth • was more similar to present-day Venus than what we have today o very high amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere and MUCH hotter temperatures Venus early Earth Earth today carbon dioxide (CO2) 96.5% 98% 0.04% nitrogen (N2) 3.4% 1.9% 78% oxygen (O2) ~ 0% ~ 0% 21% argon (Ar) 0.007% 0.1% 0.93% average temperature (°F) 872 550 61 * average pressure (bars) 92 60 1 * Earth would be at/below 32° F with no CO2 (more like Mars is now)! o so, where did all the CO2 go? . 80% is in rocks like limestone (CaCO3) and other organic material (oil/gas/coal) Plate Tectonics! . some dissolved into the oceans . some is in living plants (plants converted CO2 and produced O2) . other biologic uses of CO2 (bones, shells) III. Long Term Climate Change • Earth’s history shows large variations in climate o from the very early Earth with its large CO2 percentages o to much later in history . -
The Redefinition of the Ampere
56TH INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC COLLOQUIUM URN (Paper): urn:nbn:de:gbv:ilm1-2011iwk-151:3 Ilmenau University of Technology, 12 – 16 September 2011 URN: urn:nbn:gbv:ilm1-2011iwk:5 THE REDEFINITION OF THE AMPERE Franz Josef Ahlers, Uwe Siegner Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Bundesallee 100, 38116 Braunschweig ABSTRACT F/l = μ0·(I²/2πr) in vacuum. The numerical value of the magnetic constant μ0 is fixed through the -7 The ampere is one of the seven base units of the SI, definition of the ampere to μ0 = 4π·10 N/A² the international system of units. Its definition is Since the numerical value of the speed of light c linked to mechanical units, especially the unit of has been fixed through the definition of the meter, mass, the kilogram. In a future system of units, which also the numerical value of the electric constant ε0 is 2 will be based on the values of fundamental constants, fixed according to the Maxwell relation μ0·ε0·c = l. the ampere will be based on the value of the The practical implementation of this definition – elementary charge e. This paper describes the which, in metrology, is called realisation – must be technical background of the redefinition. performed with the aid of measuring arrangements that can be realised experimentally. One dis- Index Terms – SI units, Josephson effect, tinguishes between direct realisation – in which the quantum Hall effect, single electron effect current is related to a mechanical force – and indirect realisation. The latter is based on Ohm's law I = U/R and the ampere is realised through the realisation of 1. -
This Is Nature; This Is Un-Nature: Reading the Keeling Curve
Joshua P. Howe Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/envhis/article-abstract/20/2/286/528915 by OUP site access user on 24 May 2019 This Is Nature; This Is Un-Nature: Reading the Keeling Curve Data images make odd cultural artifacts. On one hand, scientists pre- sent their data in images as a form of visual communication, intended, like other forms of visual culture, to convey both specific information and larger culturally coded messages. On the other hand, scientists typically hew to methods of measurement and math- ematical analysis intended to ensure that the data they present reflect some objective reality that transcends the cultural. To the extent that the data tell a cultural story, it is supposed to “speak for itself.” Such is the case with the Keeling Curve, the oscillating upward- sloping graph of measured atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) that has come to stand as one of the most important and powerful scien- tific symbols of anthropogenic climate change. To a lay reader, it may seem odd to read a simple measure of atmospheric gas through the many-sided prism of modern American life the way you might read a historical photograph or piece of art. And yet the Keeling Curve func- tions as much as a symbol in our collective cultural understanding of climate change as it does a representation of data about CO2. The Keeling Curve faithfully represents something quite real—the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere since 1958, expressed in parts per million (ppm)—but it is also a constructed image ripe for reading, similar to a painting, a photograph, a landscape, or a written document.