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A US Carbon Cycle Science Plan

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A US Carbon Cycle Science Plan A U.S. CARBON CYCLE SCIENCE PLAN A Report of thethe Carbon and Climate Working Group Jorge L. Sarmiento and Steven C. Wofsy, Co-Chairs A U.S. CARBON CYCLE SCIENCE PLAN A Report of the Carbon and Climate Working Group Jorge L. Sarmiento and Steven C.Wofsy, Co-Chairs Prepared at the Request of the Agencies of the U. S. Global Change Research Program 1999 The Carbon Cycle Science Plan was written by the Carbon and Climate Working Group consisting of: Jorge L. Sarmiento,Co-Chair Princeton University Steven C.Wofsy, Co-Chair Harvard University Eileen Shea,Coordinator Adjunct Fellow, East-West Center A.Scott Denning Colorado State University William Easterling Pennsylvania State University Chris Field Carnegie Institution Inez Fung University of California,Berkeley Ralph Keeling Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego James McCarthy Harvard University Stephen Pacala Princeton University W. M. Post Oak Ridge National Laboratory David Schimel National Center for Atmospheric Research Eric Sundquist United States Geological Survey Pieter Tans NOAA,Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory Ray Weiss Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California,San Diego James Yoder University of Rhode Island Preparation of the report was sponsored by the following agencies of the United States Global Change Research Program: the Department of Energy, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration,the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,the National Science Foundation,and the United States Geological Survey of the Department of Interior. The Working Group began its work in early 1998,holding meetings in March and May 1998. A Carbon Cycle Science Workshop was held in August 1998, in Westminster, Colorado,to solicit input from the scientific com- munity, and from interested Federal agencies. The revised draft Plan was made available for input by a broad segment of the scientific community. Cover photo credits: M.Harmon,Oregon State University (forest) University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (clouds,ocean) Copies of the report may be obtained from: U.S.Global Change Research Program 400 Virginia Avenue,SW Suite 750 Washington, DC 20024 USA phone:(202) 488-8630 fax:(202) 488-8681 ii Contents Executive Summary..........................................................................................................................................................I Chapter 1: Introduction.................................................................................................................................................1 Rationale ...........................................................................................................................................................................1 Outline of the Research Program .....................................................................................................................................1 Structure of the Plan.........................................................................................................................................................5 Chapter 2: The Past and Present Carbon Cycle ....................................................................................................7 The Terrestrial Carbon Sink ..............................................................................................................................................9 The Ocean Carbon Sink..................................................................................................................................................12 Land Use..........................................................................................................................................................................16 Chapter 3: Predicting the Future Carbon Cycle..................................................................................................19 Projecting Future Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations.....................................................................................................19 Management Strategies...................................................................................................................................................24 Chapter 4: An Integrated Carbon Cycle Science Program ..............................................................................27 Goal 1: Understanding the Northern Hemisphere Terrestrial Carbon Sink...................................................................28 Goal 2: Understanding the Ocean Carbon Sink.............................................................................................................36 Goal 3: Assessing the Role of Land Use..........................................................................................................................42 Goal 4: Improving Projections of Future Atmospheric CO2..........................................................................................43 Goal 5: Evaluating Management Strategies ....................................................................................................................47 Observing and Discovering ............................................................................................................................................48 Expected Results.............................................................................................................................................................50 Chapter 5: Summary of Program Elements and Resource Requirements ...............................................53 Mapping of Program Elements to CCSP Goals...............................................................................................................53 Chapter 6: Program Implementation and Critical Partnerships .................................................................57 Implementation Principles .............................................................................................................................................57 Proposed Program Management Structure.....................................................................................................................58 Critical Partnerships........................................................................................................................................................60 Bibliography .....................................................................................................................................................................63 Acronyms and Abbreviations .....................................................................................................................................69 iii Executive Summary Rationale global sinks has been observed to change from year to year and decade to decade,due to a variety of mecha- Carbon on earth is stored primarily in rocks and sedi- nisms,only partly understood. ments. Only a tiny fraction resides in mobile reservoirs (the atmosphere,oceans,and soil and terrestrial bios- The understanding of carbon sources and sinks has phere) and is thus available to play a role in biological, ad v anced enormo u s l y in the last decade. Th e r e is now physical and chemical processes at the earth’s surface. clear evidence that global uptake of anthrop o g enic CO2 The small fraction of carbon present in the atmosphere as oc c u r s by both land plants and by the ocean. The magn i - tude of the oceanic sink, pr evi o u s l y infer red from models carbon dioxide (CO2) is especially important: it is essen- tial for photosynthesis,and its abundance is a major regu- and observations of chemical trac e r s such as oceanic rad i o - lator of the climate of the planet. carbon and tritium distrib u t i o n s , has rec e n t l y been con- fir med by direct observation of the increase in dissolved The major gases,nitrogen, oxygen,argon,which com- in o r ganic carbon. An a l ysis of new trac e r s such as chl o ro fl u - prise over 98% of the atmosphere,are transparent to far- or ocarbons provide further ref inements to our underst a n d - infrared (heat) radiation. Trace gases such as carbon diox- ing of carbon uptake by the oceans. The importance of the ide, water vapor, nitrous oxide,and methane absorb heat sink due to the terres t r ial biosphere has emerged from radiation from the surface, warming the atmosphere and an a l ysis of the global carbon budge t ,i n cluding improved radiating heat back to the surface. This process,called the estimates of the ocean carbon uptake, as well as data on greenhouse effect, is a natural phenomenon without 13 CO /12 CO isotopic ratios and from cha n g es in the abu n - which the Earth’s surface would be 30°C cooler than it is 2 2 dance of O2 rel a t i v e to N2. Isotopes can giv e inform a t i o n at present. on the terres t r ial sink, for exa m p l e , since plants prefe re n t i a l - Throughout the climate extremes of the past 400,000 ly select certain isotopes during photosynthesis and leave a years,during which there were four major glacial cycles, global signature in the isotopic ratio of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. For est inven t o r ies and remote sensing of atmospheric CO2 concentrations varied by no more than twenty percent from a mean of about 240 parts per mil- veg etation appear to confir m a significant land sink in the No rt h e r n Hemisphere and provide insight into the underly- lion (ppm). Concentrations of CO2 and methane are now higher by more than 30% and 250%, respectively,
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