THE FUTURE OF WISCONSIN REPUBLICANS

JEFF MAYERS

lash forward to even the skillful December 2002. spin-meister Jensen FWisconsin can’t erase the evi- Republicans are in dence that marks deep depression. Wisconsin as a Democratic state. The governor’s office is about to be in If this comes Democratic hands for true, Wisconsin the first time since Republicans will 1986, following Scott have to acknowledge McCallum’s loss; that: McCallum simply • They haven’t couldn’t shake off the held a U.S. Senate first recession of the seat from Wisconsin new century. The since 1992, when Bob attorney general’s Kasten got beat by office remains now vice presiden- Democratic; U.S. tial hopeful Russ Representative Mark Feingold. And there Green declined multiple overtures to run for haven’t been two Republican U.S. senators statewide office and decided instead (under simultaneously since Joe McCarthy’s 10-year pressure from House Speaker Dennis Hastert) stint during the tenure of Alexander Wiley to run for re-election as part of a vain attempt (1939-63). by the national GOP and the Bush White House to hold onto Congress. Congressman • They missed Tommy Thompson more than David Obey, the irascible northern Wisconsin any of them could have imagined. Thompson’s Democrat, is ready to assume the dominating personality and political machine, Appropriations Committee chair after cruising in combination with Jensen’s political smarts to re-election once again. And Senate Majority and cunning legislative maneuvering, gave Leader Chuck Chvala, D-Madison, the man everybody the appearance that Wisconsin was Republicans love to hate, is now more firmly a competitive state. Thompson held onto office in control of the 33-member Senate than ever. all those years with his populist magic, and Jensen turned a largely Democratic map into The only major Republican left standing in one of the biggest Republican majorities in Madison? Speaker Scott Jensen. Jensen, R- recent history through a take-no-prisoners Waukesha, is now the sole defender of political philosophy. Republican interests in the statehouse and the default leader of Wisconsin Republicans. But Jeff Mayers is president and editor of WisPolitics.com, an online news service in Madison.

Wisconsin Interest 13 • They haven’t won a presidential race in the though out of office, recorded a 71 percent Badger State since 1984, Ronald Reagan’s sec- favorable rating while Kohl recorded 70 per- ond go-around. They came awfully close in cent — tops among the state’s leading politi- 2000, but that was against a weak Democratic cians.) Conservative forces often privately com- candidate in a year when Bush traveled to plained that Thompson was a big-government Wisconsin enough times to acquire a hanker- Republican who expanded state government ing for brats with his Texas beans. and its aid programs while failing to tame the Department of Natural Resources and the • They haven’t held the majority in the state University of Wisconsin System. He never cut Senate since June 1996, when the Miller Park- taxes enough to satisfy this wing of the party. sparked recall of George Petak gave Chvala the opening he needed to mold the Senate Enter Scott McCallum, Thompson’s lieu- Democrats into a power. Except for Mike tenant governor for his entire tenure. Upon Ellis’s occasional stints as majority leader in assuming office on February 1, McCallum the mid-1990s, Democrats controlled the cham- early on appeared to be the kind of fiscal con- ber for most of the last 25 years of the 20th cen- servative that Thompson only talked about. tury. McCallum’s playbook seemed to be that of the state’s largest business group, Wisconsin • They’ve held the attorney general’s office Manufacturers & Commerce. He proposed a for only four years out of the last 27 years. The state spending cap (unthinkable under last GOP AG? Don Hanaway, a one-termer in Thompson, who would have argued that it 1987-91. limited his flexibility), committed to getting For Republicans, this is a worst-case sce- Wisconsin out of the top 10 taxing states (on nario — not because their future would rest his way out, Thompson contended the state’s with Jensen, but because for the first time in 16 tax load wasn’t as bad as the critics said), and years they wouldn’t be able to claim, without pushed to phase in the single-factor sales tax seriously tripping off the polygraph, that break (Thompson proposed one, too, but Wisconsin is a true swing state like they’ve evened it out with a loophole-closing proposal been saying for all of these years. And for the abhorred by big business). The centerpiece first time in 16 years, they wouldn’t occupy the spending cap may not be needed in the 2001- governor’s office. 03 budget because of a slowing economy and less-than-expected tax revenues, but the early Now this isn’t necessarily a picture paint- reviews from voters were positive. This is a ed by Democrats. This is a private fear held by frugal budget, and McCallum as the frugal certain GOP strategists who see the political gourmet is serving up cod liver oil as he landscape changing for the worse in the short preaches to the spendthrifts: it’s time to get the term for Republicans in Wisconsin. fiscal house in order. One reason for concern beyond the slowing Some of McCallum’s early rhetoric turned economy is the lurch to the right. Thompson, off Thompson loyalists, who saw McCallum while he pushed conservative-minded experi- dissing the old boss as a way of getting back ments in school choice and welfare reform, was for years of being relegated to a bit player. But not an ideologue as governor. He went from McCallum later tried to correct what he Dr. No as Assembly minority leader to labeled a misperception, perhaps thinking that Governor Can Do, throwing government he might need the enthusiastic backing of resources and his own energy at problems big Thompson and his core supporters to earn a and small in a populist vein that garnered per- four-year term in 2002. sonal popularity paralleled only by nice-guy millionaire U.S. Senator Herb Kohl, D-Wis. (In “That was not Tommy Thompson's spend- the mid-March WisPolitics.com/Wood ing…” McCallum told WisPolitics.com in early Communications Group poll, Thompson, March. “And I would like to reiterate that it

14 Spring 2001 was the Legislature that upped every single since Tony Earl got upset by Thompson in one of Tommy Thompson's budgets. And I 1986; their early front-runner was Attorney think it is unfair of people to now attribute it to General James Doyle, who recorded a 49 per- Tommy now that he's gone. He's built a great cent favorable rating and 80 percent name ID base for the state of Wisconsin. It is a wonder- in the WisPolitics/Wood Communications ful economic base off of which we can work. poll. There's been a national slowdown, and we The political tea leaves suggest 2002 is a worked on the budget together. And Tommy make or break transition election year for Thompson understood it, and I think he was Republicans: very frugal through the years. He did what he could to build the state of Wisconsin, but he • Without Bush or Thompson at the top of had a Legislature to deal with.” the ticket, there’s concern about the motivation factor. Bush’s election run in 2000 excited So does McCallum. He’s a former state grassroots Republicans and brought scores of senator, but McCallum’s early legislative rela- new activists into the party ranks. But those tions were strangely cold — even hostile. He activists need a cause in angered Assembly 2002, and keeping the Republicans on a number governor’s office will of fronts: keeping budget have to be the rallying cry secrets, pushing popular since there’s no U.S. Agriculture Secretary Ben Senate race until 2004. In Brancel out, and passing 2004, party leaders hope over likeable Majority Democrats are hungry, enough activists will still Leader Steve “Mickey” be motivated enough Foti, R-Oconomowoc, in really hungry, to get about Bush and mad the lieutenant governor enough about the near sweepstakes. McCallum back into the governor’s miss in 2000 (in ended up picking Senator office … Wisconsin) to clinch the Margaret Farrow, R- state for Bush. Pewaukee, whose confir- mation got shelved by • The off-year elections majority Senate tend to hurt the party Democrats for at least six occupying the White weeks. McCallum wasn’t House. On top of that, in a hurry to pick his lieutenant governor; so Democratic stalwarts are motivated by the why should they be in a hurry, asked Senate revenge factor. Even if they didn’t like Al Gore, Democrats. many think he got a raw deal in Florida. Bush’s approval ratings may have been at dreamy lev- McCallum did much better outside of the els in March (58 percent, according to the Capitol Square, making frequent trips to WisPolitics.com/Wood Communications southeastern Wisconsin and beyond to reintro- Group poll), but the stock market crash and duce himself to voters as top-of-the-ticket subsequent erosion of consumer confidence are material. While his honeymoon ended early sending bad political vibes. under the Dome, likely voters were giving him the benefit of the doubt in mid-March, accord- • Democrats are hungry, really hungry, to ing to the WisPolitics/Wood Communications get back into the governor’s office, and the poll. McCallum scored a 44 percent favorable Wisconsin electorate could be swayed by a rating and had 82 percent name recognition simple slogan: “It’s time for a change after 16 after six weeks of largely positive press. years.” Wisconsin voters’ sense of fair play, if Democrats, meanwhile, mobilized for their nothing else, could make it a difficult year for first real chance at winning a governor’s race Republicans no matter who’s at the top of the

Wisconsin Interest 15 ticket. In addition, national and state economic the ticket. But the candidate many Republicans troubles could doom many a fledgling incum- talked about — U.S. Representative Mark bent, including McCallum. Green, a likable Green Bay attorney who has shown political smarts in solidifying northeast- • McCallum is conservative enough for ern Wisconsin’s 8th Congressional District — Republican activists, but does he have the pas- appeared unlikely to run at the time of this sion? Republicans got spoiled all of those years writing in mid-March. Without Green, with the Thompson shtick — and his ability to Republicans would be left with a bunch of impassion audiences despite his Elroy-speak unknown Republican DAs or one well-known and bombastic rhetoric. McCallum, early on, one, Waukesha County’s Paul Bucher — con- left some of the GOP power brokers unin- sidered damaged goods after getting chewed spired. Some couldn’t get over that McCallum up in the Chmura trial. read a speech at the March 6 inaugural ball and fundraiser in Milwaukee. The event raised • Democrats may cut each other up in the close to $1 million before expenses, but 2002 gubernatorial primary. But at least they’ll McCallum failed to cash in the chance to dispel have a primary — often an advantage for the the longtime grumbling about his political party that’s out of power. Not only will skills. Again, McCallum has been far better Democrats get all of the free media attention received by activists outside of the power-cen- for months and months, the winner will get a ters of Madison and Milwaukee — a by-prod- burst of momentum from the win. And uct, perhaps of a schedule that had him on a Wisconsin’s late primary — in September — plane 18 of his first 45 days. means the winner will have the momentum at the right time. The winner might come out of • McCallum could be a victim of circum- the primary flat broke, but national Democrats stances, holding the budget bag after 14 years will make sure general election campaign of blissful spending (and modest tax-cutting) money appears. Remember 1992, when on the state scene. He came in, tax revenues Feingold broke through the middle and beat slowed, and suddenly there’s little extra cash two bickering opponents (Joe Checota and Jim to spread around for interest groups, local gov- Moody)? The surprise winner, Feingold came ernments, corporate tax breaks and individual out with such a halo, Kasten never had a tax cuts. No matter what happens in the leg- chance. islative budget debate, it’s McCallum’s budget. The tide of negative publicity about budget • Even if the political and economic tides details foretells a Democratic strategy of stick it don’t work against Republicans, the party has to McCallum. In the budget game, frugality is to contend with the absence of Thompson. not the virtue it would appear — especially if Thompson was a unifying force in the party by individual tax cuts don’t appear and property virtue of his longevity in office, if nothing else. tax relief measures fall by the wayside before Without him, many observers foresee a strug- 2002. If the economic and budget picture wors- gle between conservatives and moderates for en, McCallum will be in the lousy position of the heart and soul of the party. Thompson led truly cutting services or raising taxes. Even by force of personality first, and ideology sec- Thompson’s Teflon might have crinkled under ond. But activists who fight over the platform that pressure. Several top GOP strategists have often think about ideological purity first, and predicted for years that the next governor after winning second. Without Thompson at the Thompson would be a one-termer because of helm, those forces — including right-to-lifers the personality void and budget problems left who disagreed with Thompson on stem cell after Thompson’s departure. research — could be unleashed. The ensuing battle could leave the party divided going into • McCallum will need help, and a strong AG the 2002 elections. candidate could provide a boost at the top of

16 Spring 2001 That theory’s overblown, say party leaders. underestimated. This inside audience was very critical in the early going despite McCallum’s The official GOP line is that the party and generally positive re-introduction to the its followers are pretty unified. “George Bush Wisconsin electorate. has a lot to do with it,” says Rick Graber, a Milwaukee attorney and state GOP chairman. McCallum, early in his tenure, showed “In the fall, I never saw so many people ener- enough stuff to give fellow Republicans hope. gized.” Graber says the Bush campaign Paul Ryan gave McCallum a good chance at re- brought a lot of new faces and new energy into election while acknowledging the difficulties the party last year. That will be good for a ahead. “He has to replace Tommy Thompson. party that some internal critics saw as populat- Tommy will cast a shadow over Wisconsin ed with too many of the “usual suspects” after politics for a long time, and we're going to suf- all those years of the Thompson dynasty. fer from the lack of Tommy in politics. There are a lot of growing pains right now with the Fresh blood is good. Thompson’s iron grip absence of Tommy. Scott, you know, is in the on the office discouraged some good middle of that,” Ryan said in a WisPolitics.com Republican talent. But interview in March. “But few would disagree that he's been around for 14 if Thompson were still in years, and he's got two the East Wing and run- years to crisscross the ning, he’d be the odds-on state and show himself to favorite to win another the people in Wisconsin. four years in office. Tommy [Thompson] Is it an uphill battle? Graber puts the best Yeah, of course it is. [But] face on Thompson’s will cast a shadow over I think you have to give departure, saying it pre- Wisconsin politics for a the advantage to Scott sents “an opportunity for McCallum being gover- the next generation to step long time … nor after 2002. He is the up and be leaders.” The incumbent, after all. But list of future GOP stars in it's life after Tommy, and Wisconsin most often that's a big change for all include, in no particular of us.” order: Jensen, Green, U.S. Representative Paul Ryan Graber agrees that of southeastern Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional after 14 years of one leader, a time of adjust- District (now on the Ways and Means ment has arrived. “It takes a little sorting out,” Committee and mentioned as a possible he said. But Graber signaled his intention to Feingold opponent in 2004), Senators Mary use the battle ahead as a unifying force. “Our Panzer and Alberta Darling, and Scott Klug, top priority has to be holding onto the gover- the former Madison-area congressman and nor’s office, and it will be hard,” he said. “The now magazine publisher. Strangely, strategists Democrats are going to be coming after it hard. rarely mention McCallum, the lieutenant gov- I fully expect this to be the most expensive ernor who patiently waited 14 years for his governor’s race ever.” chance. In part because of Thompson’s domi- McCallum is raising the cash, but will he nating personality and governing style and have the political capital he needs to win? He McCallum’s family-first work philosophy, the didn’t inherit Thompson’s large stash of politi- longtime “light gov,” as he was nicknamed by cal capital, and he doesn’t have much time to his GOP critics, suffered widespread disrespect earn it. He’ll start with a post-Thompson at the hands of top strategists. Now McCallum vision that is searching for a slogan. has a chance to show them all that he’s been

Wisconsin Interest 17 “I've tried to say my real focus is on build- years, there's a tremendous emphasis on chil- ing the state, how we can grow, how we can dren, on early childhood, on child care, on K improve the state of Wisconsin. That is why through 12, on education, on improving the specifically when I talk about the cap on state way we live in Wisconsin.” spending, which if we would have had over Improving the way we live. It’s a start. But the past number of years we would have been in the meantime, McCallum is forced to estab- in very good shape as a state right now. But lish his own identity, step out from the shadow the cap was tied specifically to the growth in of Thompson, and embrace the Thompson personal income. It's not inflation. So we can legacy — all at the same time. It’s created some emphasize people moving up the economic tension in Republican ranks. As McCallum ladder. We can emphasize people having an said, change is hard when you’re following “a increase in their salaries,” McCallum told giant of a political figure.” WisPolitics when asked to explain his vision. “So the efforts on the part of the state are to “It's different. There's a different way. I'm improve our economy, improve jobs, improve not putting a value judgment on it. . . . Tommy education, to allow our economy to grow. . . . Thompson did a great job. He was an over- If you look within the budget, while again, it powering political figure.” was the lowest spending increase in over 30

18 Spring 2001