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Home , Dennis Hastert, Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi

POLITICAL REPORT

POLITICAL REPORT A MONTHLY POLL COMPILATION Volume 14, Issue 11 • December 2018

IN THIS ISSUE: Women in Congress, Women’s Views of Trump (p. 1) Female Voters’ Attitudes and Demographics (p.2) | , , Melania TrumpPOLITICAL and (pp. 3–6) | Women on the CourtREPORT (p. 7) The Women’s Issue Female candidates, led by Democratic women, won impressive victories in November’s elections. We look in this issue at the views of women and men. Women are more Democratic than men, and they are a larger share of the electorate. They have different views on the election results and on President Trump’s qualities. Later in this issue, we look at opinions on some prominent women. Q: Do you think Democrats winning control of the US House of Representatives is a good thing or bad thing? (Quinnipiac) Q: Do you think more womenPOLITIC in Congress will make things work better thanAL it does now, worse REPOR than it does now, or T won’t it change much? (CBS News) Democrats winning More women in Congress control of the US will make things in Congress House is a good thing work better Responses of Women 69% 56% Men 54 40 Note: In the CBS question, 4 percent of women and 5 percent of men said more women will make things work worse in Congress. Thirty-eight percent of women, and 52 percent of men said things would be the same. Quinnipiac sample is registered voters. : Quinnipiac University, November 14–19, 2018; CBS News, November 15–18, 2018.

Q: How important is it that more women be elected to public office? Q: How serious a problem is sexual harassment in this country today? Very/Somewhat important that Sexual harassment is a . . . more women be elected Very serious/Serious problem to public office in today Responses of Female voters 81% 87% Male voters 75 80 Source: 2018 National Exit Pool exit poll.

Q: Would you say that . . . ? Cares about Shares Is average Is your honest Americans intelligent values Responses of Women 32% 35% 49% 29% White women 40 45 56 37 Men 42 51 62 41 Note: Sample is registered voters. Source: Quinnipiac University, November 2018.

AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE 1789 Avenue, NW, , DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org Looking at Female Voters Below we look at what the 2018 exit poll showed about the attitudes and demography of different groups of women and compare them to men. To take just one of the interesting stories here, white suburban women, a much-discussed group during the campaign, were more likely to identify as Republicans than Democrats, yet they split evenly (49 to 49 percent) in their view about how Donald Trump was handling his job as president.

------Voters ------Women White Nonwhite White Men women women suburban women Usually think of yourself as a Democrat 45% 35% 66% 32% 29% Republican 30 38 13 41 36 Ind/Something else 25 27 21 27 35

On most political matters, consider self Liberal 30% 28% 34% 26% 23% Moderate 38 37 41 37 36 Conservative 32 35 25 37 41

Currently married 56% 61% 45% 64% 63%

Attend religious services At least monthly 47% 44% 56% 43% 44% Few times a year/Less 53 56 44 57 56

Born-again or evangelical Christian NA 37% 47% 35% NA

First-time voter in midterm 16% 13% 24% 14% 15%

Favorable opinion of Democratic Party 55% 47% 74% 41% 40% Unfavorable 41 49 22 55 56

Favorable opinion of Republican Party 39% 45% 25% 49% 50% Unfavorable 57 52 70 47 46

Donald Trump handling his job as president Approve 40% 48% 21% 49% 50% Disapprove 59 51 76 49 49 Source: 2018 National Election Pool exit poll.

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 2 Polls on Pelosi notes that Americans generally rate new Speakers of the House positively when they take office. The polling organization also wrote in a November 2018 release that all recent speakers—, , Nancy Pelosi, , and —were rated more negatively than positively by the end of their tenures. We focus here on the ratings of Nancy Pelosi, who became the first female of the House in 2007. Q: Now we’d like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person or if you have never heard of them.

House Democratic Leader, Nancy Pelosi* 100 90 80 70 60 Unfavorable opinon 50 53% 40 30 23% 29% 20 Favorable opinion 10 18% Speaker 0 1 201 20 10 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

100 Pelosi and Ryan Favorable Opinion Among Own Party 90 80

70 69% 60 55% 50 50% 40 Republicans’ favorable opinion Democrats’ favorable opinion 30 33% of Paul Ryan of Nancy Pelosi 20 10 0 2011 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Note: *From 2007–2010, Gallup worded the question “Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi.” Source: Gallup, latest that of June 2018.

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AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 3 (Continued from the previous page)

On Election Day, 31 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Nancy Pelosi. They voted overwhelmingly for Democratic House candidates. Nearly a quarter of voters with an unfavorable opinion of her also voted for Dem- ocratic candidates. The polls taken since the election that ask about Nancy Pelosi as Speaker show that there is some appetite for change about Democrats.

Q: Is your opinion of Nancy Pelosi . . . ? ------How they voted ------Democratic Republican House House Voters candidates candidates Favorable opinion of Nancy Pelosi 31% 89% 10% Unfavorable 56 24 75

Female voters’ response Male voters’ response Favorable 34% 28% Unfavorable 49 63 Source: 2018 National Election Pool exit poll.

Q: As you may know, the next Speaker of the US House of Representatives will be a member of the Democratic Party. Who would you prefer to be the next Speaker of the House . . . ? ------Responses of ------Dems. Reps. Ind. Prefer Nancy Pelosi to be the next Speaker 30% 49% 12% 27% Prefer another Democrat 57 40 76 58 Note: In a question about whether Republicans should select Mitch McConnell to continue as Majority Leader, 14 percent nationally said select McConnell, 33 percent someone else. Source: CBS News, November 15–18, 2018.

Q: Should Democrats in the House of Representatives reelect Nancy Pelosi as the next speaker of the House or is it time for a new leader? ------Responses of ------Dems. Reps. Ind. Reelect Nancy Pelosi 33% 48% 23% 25% Time for a new leader 67 52 77 75 Note: Online survey. Sample is registered voters. Source: Harvard Center for American Political Studies/Harris Poll, November 27–28, 2018.

Q: As you may know, Nancy Pelosi is the Minority Leader for the Democratic Party in the House of Representatives and was formerly Speaker of the House. When Democrats take control of the House of Representatives in January, do you believe Nancy Pelosi should . . . ? ------Responses of ------Dems. Reps. Ind. Pelosi should be made Speaker 27% 48% 11% 22% Should not be made Speaker 43 22 61 42 Don’t know/No opinion 31 31 28 36 Note: Online survey. Sample is registered voters. Source: /, November 15-18, 2018

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 4 Polls on Hillary For more than a quarter century, pollsters have surveyed the public about Hillary Rodham Clinton. The first question that asked about whether she had presidential ambitions was asked in 1992, in a Yankelovich Clancy Shulman poll for Time. When the pollsters asked whether she had “what it takes to be President,” 19 percent answered that she did, 40 percent that she did not, and 41 percent were unsure. Since the 2016 election, only a few pollsters have asked people their views about Hillary Clinton. We show below Gallup’s national trend from November 2016 on, and then we look at the responses of partisans about her. Her favorable rating reached its highest point, 67 percent, in 1998 when was facing . In Gallup’s latest survey from September 2018, it stood at 36 percent. Among Democrats, her favorable rating has dropped 10 points since early November 2016 in Gallup’s trend. Q: Next we’d like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a . . . 100 Hillary Clinton 90 80 70 Unfavorable opinion 60 55% 60% 50 40 43% Favorable opinion 36% 30 20 10 0 6 7 6 17 18 16 /1 /1 /1 1/ 1/ 3/ /1 /1 /6 6/ 9/ /1 11 12 11 11

Hillary Clinton Favorability Rating by Party 100 90 87% Democrats’ opinion 80 77% 70 60 50 40 33% Independents’ opinion 30 30% 20 Republicans’ opinion 8% 10 0 4% 7 6 6 16 17 18 /1 /1 /1 1/ 1/ 3/ /1 /1 /6 /1 6/ 9/ 11 11 12 11 Source: Gallup, latest that of September 2018.

Q: Now we will show you some names and groups. Please indicate if you have a . . . ? ------Responses of ------Registered voters Men Women Favorable opinion Hillary Clinton 38% 31% 45% Donald Trump 38 42 35 Note: Online survey. Sample is registered voters. v Source: Harvard Center for American Political Studies/Harris Poll, October 2018.

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 5 Polls on Michelle and Melania In the November 2018 Quinnipiac University survey of registered voters, 4 in 10 hadn’t heard enough about to have an opinion of her. Of the remainder, 35 percent had a favorable opinion, and 20 percent an unfavorable one. Michelle Obama is better known. Only 11 percent said they hadn’t heard enough about her. Of the rest, more were favorable than unfavorable, by 63 to 24 percent. In the latest NBC News/ Journal poll about Melania Trump from August 2018, 38 percent had positive feelings and 21 percent negative ones. Thirty-six percent were neutral. Q: Is your opinion of . . . ? ------Responses of ------Dem. Rep. Ind. Men Women Favorable opinion of Melania Trump 35% 15% 65% 35% 36% 35% Unfavorable 20 35 3 19 16 23 Haven’t heard enough about her 40 44 31 40 41 39

Favorable opinion of Michelle Obama 63% 95% 27% 61% 56% 70% Unfavorable 24 2 51 24 26 21 Haven’t heard enough about her 11 4 18 12 15 8 Note: Sample is registered voters. In early January 2017, 29 percent had a favorable view of Melanie Trump, 22 percent an unfavorable one, and 43 percent hadn’t heard enough about her. Source: Quinnipiac University, November 2018.

Q: Now I’m going to read you the names of several public figures and groups and I’d like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don’t know the name, please just say so. August 2018 January 2017 Melania Trump Positive feelings 38% 27% Neutral 36 41 Negative feelings 21 25 Note: August survey is registered voters. Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, latest that of August 2018.

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow Editor: Eleanor O’Neil , Resident Scholar Design: Claude Aubert , Resident Fellow Intern: Jackie Clemence

The survey results reported here were obtained in part from searches of the AEI poll archive, the iPoll Databank, and other resources provided by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at Cornell University. The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit, 501(c)(3) educational organization and does not take institutional positions on any issues. The views expressed here are those of the author[s].

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 6 Women and Men on the Court In a post-election online survey, Economist/YouGov asked people their impressions of members of the Supreme Court. With the exception of Brett Kavanaugh, all are viewed more favorably than unfavorably. The “unsure” response is high for all of these people. Roughly a quarter of men and women say they are unsure of their view of Kavanaugh. More women view him unfavorably than view him favorably; men are split. Partisan differences are larger. Seventy-eight percent of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Kavanaugh, while 77 percent of Demo- crats have an unfavorable opinion of him. When asked their view of the Supreme Court’s ideological leanings in a November Quinnipiac University sur- vey, men and women did not differ significantly. Four in 10 said the Court is “about right.”

Q: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following people? Ruth Bader Elena Sonia John Ginsburg Kagan Sotomayer Roberts Favorable 39% 30% 40% 36% Unfavorable 32 23 25 24 Not sure 29 47 35 40

Clarence Stephen Samuel Neil Thomas Breyer Alito Gorsuch Favorable 37% 28% 32% 35% Unfavorable 31 19 21 24 Not sure 32 53 47 40

Brett Kavanaugh — Responses of — —— Responses of —— National adults’ responses Women Men Reps. Dems. Inds. Favorable 34% 30% 39% 78% 6% 27% Unfavorable 41 44 38 11 77 35 Not sure 24 25 23 11 17 38 Note: Online survey. “Very” and “Somewhat” favorable/unfavorable responses combined. Source: Economist/YouGov, November 2018.

Q: Do you think . . . ?

— Responses of — —— Responses of —— National (RV) responses Women Men Reps. Dems. Inds. The Supreme Court is Too liberal 14% 13% 15% 27% 5% 12% Too conservative 36 37 35 5 65 33 About right 41 40 43 63 21 47 Note: Sample is registered voters. Source: Quinnipiac University, November 2018.

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