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Renewable Energy Sources and Distributed Energy Production Renewable Energy Sources and Distributed Energy Production Wind Power in Finland – Export Prospects and Emission Reductions Tuulivoima Suomessa – vientipotentiaalia ja päästövähennyksiä Hannele Holttinen, Esa Peltola, Sami Tuhkanen The costs for CO2 abatement by increasing wind VTT Processes, Espoo, Finland power capacity in Finland seem to be about 20 €/t VTT Prosessit, Espoo CO2 for the first TWh of wind, and when the capac- ity is further increased the costs also raise gradu- € ally to 35 /t CO2 for the seventh TWh of wind. Abstract Wind power, as a renewable source of energy, re- Lyhennelmä duces the greenhouse gas emissions. For Finland, the technology also brings business opportunities, Tuulivoima on uusiutuva energiantuotantomuoto, as the Finnish industry already has a position in the joka vähentää kasvihuonekaasupäästöjä. Suomel- global, fast growing wind power market. The wind le tuulivoimateknologia tuo myös liiketoiminta- energy project within the Climtech Programme fo- mahdollisuuksia, koska suomalaisella teollisuu- cused on the technology export potential of Finn- della on jo vahva jalansija voimakkaasti kasvavilla ish industry in wind power markets, and on the re- maailmanmarkkinoilla. Climtech-ohjelman tuuli- duction of greenhouse gas emissions of wind voimaprojektissa tarkasteltiin Suomen teknolo- power in the Finnish and Nordic energy systems. giaviennin mahdollisuuksia tuulivoimamarkki- noilla sekä tuulivoiman päästövähennysmahdolli- The global development of wind power technology suuksia Suomen ja Pohjoismaiden energiajärjes- and market prospects of wind power were taken for telmässä. a starting point when estimating the technology ex- port prospects for the Finnish industry. If the Finn- Arvioitaessa tuulivoimateknologian vientipotenti- ish industry is able to maintain the current market aalia lähtökohdaksi otettiin markkina-arviot sekä shares, the exports will be 0.8–1.2 billion € in 2010. tuulivoimateknologian kehitystrendit maailmalla. If the Finnish wind turbine manufacturer were able Mikäli suomalainen teollisuus pitää nykyiset mark- to get a global market share of 5%, this would more kinaosuutensa kasvavilla markkinoilla, teknolo- than double the Finnish exports. The fast growing giavienti vuonna 2010 on 0,8–1,2 mrd €. Mikäli wind power market is abroad. To stay there, or to suomalainen tuulivoimavalmistaja saa 5 % mark- get there as a newcomer, requires more and more kinaosuuden, teknologiaviennin arvo yli kaksin- national support in the form of R&D and a home kertaistuisi tästä. Kasvavat ja voimakkaasti kehit- market. tyvät tuulivoimamarkkinat ovat ulkomailla, ja siel- lä pysyminen tai sinne pääseminen vaatii enene- For the emission reductions, simulations for the vässä määrin kansallista tukea: t&k-toimintaa sekä Finnish and Nordic energy systems were con- kotimarkkinat. ducted to find out the amount of emission reduc- tions wind power could make. CO2 emissions will Tuulivoiman päästövähennyksiä arvioitaessa si- be reduced 700–650 gCO2/kWh wind produced. muloitiin Suomen ja Pohjoismaiden energiajärjes- 5 telmiä. CO2-päästöt vähenevät 700–650 gCO2/ Larger production units require new solutions for kWh tuotettua tuulivoimaa kohti. CO2-päästösääs- regulation of the production and the network. töjen kustannukset ovat simulointien mukaan noin € 20 /t CO2 ensimmäiselle TWh:lle tuulivoimaa, ja The wind turbine unit size has increased 10-fold in kun tuulivoimaa lisätään suuria määriä, kustan- 10 years. The nominal power of the wind turbines € nukset kasvavat asteittain tasolle 35 /t CO2 seitse- is presently between 0.6 and 2.5 MW.The next step männelle TWh:lle tuulivoimaa. will be from the 2 MW turbines to 3–5 MW units (Fig. 1). The turbines can be installed on land at least up to 2–3 MW. On estimate, 5 MW turbines 1 Introduction will be commercialised around the year 2005, and turbines up to 10 MW have been considered tech- nically feasible. The large turbines will be de- Wind power, as a renewable source of energy, re- signed for offshore sites. duces the greenhouse gas emissions. For Finland, the technology also brings business opportunities, as the Finnish industry already has a position in the The basic concept – a two or three-bladed turbine global, fast growing wind power market. with a horizontal axis – seems to remain in the fu- ture. In the megawatt turbines the stall control seems to give away for pitch or active stall control. As the The wind energy project within the Climtech unit size increases, load monitoring, control and Programme focused on the technology export po- smart structures become more important. Offshore tential of Finnish industry in wind power markets, wind farms will set new requirements for the design and on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and implementation for wind power plants. Espe- of wind power in the Finnish and Nordic energy cially the requirements for reliability and lifetime systems. will increase. In the future there will be special off- shore and on-shore wind turbines, instead of turbines With global development of wind power technol- with offshore modifications in the market today. ogy and market prospects of wind power as a start- ing point, the technology export prospects for the In spite of the development of gearless solutions, Finnish industry were estimated. Also the national the market share of turbines with gears will stay activities, including R&D, required to achieve the large, and also increase in the future. Large tur- export potential were estimated. bines will have their market predominantly off- shore. Offshore markets have been estimated to re- For the emission reductions, simulations for the main at a level of about 10% of the global wind Finnish and Nordic energy systems were conducted power markets. to find out the amount of emission reductions large-scale wind power could make in the system. Looking at the global wind technology trends from the Finnish industry point of view, the components for the turbines will contain more special know- 2 Wind power market opportunities how. Especially offshore installations increase the for Finnish industry need for condition monitoring and preventive maintenance. The concept solutions of the turbine 2.1 Wind power technology trends manufacturers have to be taken into account from the beginning during the development, design and The most important wind power trends in near fu- optimisation of the components. This will lead to ture are increasing unit size, increasing project different products for different manufacturers, (wind farm) size and the start of large-scale off- which will bring about increased development shore installations. For turbine technology, the costs and need for pilot plants. Increasing project trends are increased use of control and smart struc- size will also increase risks involved in new techni- tures, increase in gearless or partly direct drive cal solutions, especially when taken into use for the concepts, and shift towards variable rotating speed. first time far from Finland. 6 200 150 100 ve ground/sea level (m) 50 Height abo 0 1999 2002 2003 ~2005 2010? -50 POWER P 1 2 3 5 10 MW HUB HEIGHT H 60 70 90 100 120 m ROTOR DIAMETER D 60 70 90 120 160 m Figure 1. Expected increase in the unit size of wind power plants in the future. 2.2 Finnish industry has a strong celle and hubs. Metso Automation offers condition position monitoring and together with Metso Drives they have developed a smart gear concept. The Finnish industry manufactures 10 to 20 per cent of the main power plant components. Wind Ahlström Oy Fiberglass has been active in wind technology exports amounted to over 170 million € power business since early 1980’s. It manufactures in 2001, which accounts for five per cent of the to- glass-fibre products to suit the blade manufactur- tal wind power market. In 2001, the first 1 MW pi- ers’ needs. Exel Oy is producing pre-fabricated fi- lot plant of the Finnish wind turbine manufacturer, bre-enforcements for the blade manufacturers. WinWinD, was installed. International project de- velopment has been initialised in 2001. During the last few years there has been increasing export of materials for towers, like pre-manufac- ABB Finland Oy, a corporate responsible for small tured steel plates and flanges for towers (Rauta- generators within the international consolidated ruukki and subcontractors). The first ice preven- corporation ABB, is the market leader of wind tur- tion systems for wind turbine blades including spe- bine generators with a market share of 20–30%. cial ice detectors of Labko Oy were exported in The market share has been growing especially in 1998 by Kemijoki Arctic Technology. Vaisala Oyj the megawatt class turbines. Also frequency con- is a strong company with wind and other meteoro- verters are manufactured in Helsinki. logical sensors already in use in wind speed mea- surement campaigns, but has opportunities for ex- The Finnish Metso group has several wind power port of control anemometers for wind turbines. business areas. Metso Drives (former Santasalo and Valmet) manufactures gears, with a 10–15% Further subcontracting opportunities for the metal market share. Metso Valimo has recently been in- and machinery industry include e.g. manufactur- creasingly manufacturing large castings, like na- ing of towers directly to turbine manufacturer, for 7 the market area Finland and Baltic sea area, yaw 25–40% in recent years. Strong growth is expected gears directly to turbine manufacturer and cog- to continue for several years. wheels as a subcontractor to gear manufacturers. The estimations in this study are based on the wind Products in reinforced plastics also have opportu- power market update of BTM Consult (BTM Con- nities to grow in Finland. Manufacture of blades on sult 2001). This annual market analysis has been licence for the arctic applications offers a special published since the 90’s. The total cumulative ca- opportunity in Finland. So far a manufacture of ice pacity of wind power is estimated to be nearly prevention systems directly integrated to blade 60 000 MW in 2005 (40 000 MW in Europe) and manufacturing process does not exist.
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