1 SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2016 2 This type of solar thermal power has an inexhaustible energy source, proven technology performance, and it is environmentally safe. It can be generated in remote deserts and transported to big populations who already have power supply problems. So what are we waiting for? Solar Thermal Electricity: Global Outlook 2016 Solar Image: Crescent Dunes, 10,347 tracking mirrors (heliostats), each 115.7 square meters, focus the sun’s energy onto the receiver ©SolarReserve Content 3 For more information, please contact: Foreword ........................................................ 5 [email protected] Executive Summary ......................................... 8 [email protected] 1. Solar Thermal Electricity: The Basics ............. 17 The Concept .........................................................18 Project manager & lead authors: Dr. Sven Requirements for STE .............................................19 Teske (Greenpeace International), Janis Leung How It Works – the STE Technologies.......................21 (ESTELA) Dispatchability and Grid Integration .........................21 Other Advantages of Solar Thermal Electricity ...........23 Co-authors: Dr. Luis Crespo (Protermosolar/ ESTELA), Marcel Bial, Elena Dufour (ESTELA), 2. STE Technologies and Costs ....................... 25 Dr. Christoph Richter (DLR/SolarPACES) Types of Generators ...............................................26 Editing: Emily Rochon (Greenpeace Parabolic Trough ....................................................28 International) Central Receiver .....................................................32 Linear Fresnel Reflector .........................................34 Cost Trends for Solar Thermal Electricity ..................36 Design: www.koma.mk Heat Storage Technologies .....................................40 Hybridisation Possibilities .......................................41 3. Other Applications of STE Technologies ........ 43 Acknowledgements Process Heat..........................................................44 Desalination ..........................................................48 This publication was prepared jointly by the Solar Fuels ...........................................................49 European Solar Thermal Electricity Association Cost Considerations ...............................................50 (ESTELA), Greenpeace International and SolarPACES. This update was based on the 4. Market Situation by Region ......................... 53 Global Concentrated Solar Power Outlook 2009. ESTELA members provided important 5. The Global Solar Thermal Electricity contributions, in particular Abengoa Solar, ACS Outlook Scenarios ......................................... 67 Cobra, CSP Today, DLR, Solar Euromed. The Scenarios ........................................................70 Energy Efficiency Projections ...................................70 Also we would like to give special thanks to Core Results ..........................................................71 all comments and support received from the Full Results ............................................................72 STE industry and STE national associations, Main Assumptions and Parameters ..........................80 namely ANEST, AUSTELA, CSP Alliance and China National Solar Thermal Energy Alliance, 6. Dispatchable STE for Interconnected Deutsche CSP, Protermosolar, and SASTELA. Power Markets .............................................. 83 Published by The Interconnection between the Iberian Peninsula and the Rest of Europe .................................................84 Greenpeace International The Mediterranean Region ......................................85 Ottho Heldringstraat 5, 7. How to Get There From Here: Policy 1066 AZ Amsterdam Recommendations ........................................ 89 The Netherlands www.greenpeace.org Obstacles and Barriers ............................................90 What policies have been proven to work effectively for boosting STE?........................................................91 ESTELA Financing Needs ....................................................93 Successful Structures for Off-take ............................94 European Solar Thermal Electricity Successful Financing Instruments ...........................98 Association Recommendations .............................................. 100 Rue de l’Industrie 10, About the authors ....................................... 103 B-1000 Brussels, Belgium www.estelasolar.org Appendixes ................................................ 104 Appex.1: List of current solar thermal power plants in operation and under construction in 2015............ 104 SolarPACES Appex.2: List of on-going projects related to the interconnection of the Iberian Peninsula to the rest of SolarPACES Secretariate Europe ............................................................... 108 Apartado 39 Appex.3: Summary of Key Parameters in Scenarios ..... E-04200 Tabernas, Spain ...........................................................................109 www.solarpaces.org Appex.4: List of countries in IEA Regions ............. 110 Appex.5: Abbreviations ...................................... 111 4 With advanced industry development and high levels of energy efficiency, solar thermal electricity could meet up to 6 % of the world’s power needs by 2030 and 12% by 2050. Solar Thermal Electricity: Global Outlook 2016 Solar Image: Termosolar Palma del Río ©Acciona 5 Foreword This is the 4th joint report of the European Greenpeace developed a global energy vision Solar Thermal Electricity Association (ESTELA), – the Energy [R]evolution scenario – which Greenpeace International and SolarPACES since provides a practical blueprint for rapidly cutting 2003. energy-related CO2 emissions in order to help ensure that greenhouse gas emissions peak and Just before the last edition was published in then fall by 2020. This can be achieved whilst 2009, the annual market volume for STE hit the ensuring economies in China, India and other one billion US dollar mark. By the end of 2015, developing nations have access to the energy the sector concluded nearly a decade of strong that they need in order to develop and STE plays growth. Whilst the installed capacity of STE in an important role especially in this context. 2006 was only 0.5 GW, it has increased by a factor of 10 to almost 5 GW today. The Global Solar Thermal Electricity Outlook 2016 goes one step further. Whilst the The STE sector is now on a steady development moderate STE market scenario is in line with pathway towards double digit GW capacity the Energy [R]evolution scenario, the advanced within the next 5 years, establishing a solid base scenario shows that this technology has even for future growth. Especially for the firm supply more to offer. of dispatchable power, for water purification and desalination purposes and for industrial process Globally, the STE industry could employ by 2030 heat needs, STE technologies are in high demand as many as 2.7 million people whose job will be and offer specific technical advantages. to take up a new role in fighting climate change and deliver up to 12% of the world’s electricity We are delighted to see STE on a solid growth by 2050. pathway and poised to establish itself as a third big player in the new “sustainable power This is an inspiring vision not just for our generation industry”. With the potential for political leaders, in light of the truly historic cost curves to decline significantly, STE has the Paris Agreement agreed by 195 countries at potential to be economically viable in sunny the COP21 climate conference in December regions across the world. 2015, but also millions of citizens around the world: STE technology can indeed contribute Although the sector experienced challenges to boosting local economies, providing reliable due to political instability in key markets and energy supply and most importantly, reducing strong competition with other renewable energy CO2 emissions by a significant amount in order technologies – especially photovoltaic – the to limit global temperature increase to 1.5oC. authors of this report are confident that solar The climate clock is ticking and there’s no time thermal electricity is key to achieve a 100% to waste. To achieve zero emissions by 2050, renewables share by 2050 in a wise mix with we must act now and set ambitious goals on other renewables. Bearing in mind that fighting RES shares in the energy mix, aiming at legally climate change is among the most important binding targets to fast-track the switch from tasks of mankind today, it is essential that the fossil fuels to renewable. power generation sector becomes virtually CO2 free by 2050. Dr. Sven Teske Dr. Luis Crespo Dr. Christoph Richter Greenpeace International President of ESTELA Executive Secretary IEA SolarPACES 6 Avant-propos Ce document est le 4ème rapport conjoint réalisé (Energy [R]evolution); un guide pratique pour par l’Association Européenne pour la Promotion de réduire rapidement les émissions de CO2 liées à la l’Electricité Solaire Thermique (ESTELA), Greenpeace production d’énergie, afin que les rejets de gaz à effet International et SolarPACES depuis 2003. de serre atteignent leur maximum puis retombent Peu avant la publication de notre dernier rapport avant 2020. Ceci est possible en faisant en sorte en 2009, le marché de l’énergie solaire thermique que les économies de pays émergents, tels que la avait