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Quasi-Alliances, Managing the Rise of China, and Domestic Politics: the US-Japan-Australia Trilateral 1991-2015

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Quasi-Alliances, Managing the Rise of China, and Domestic Politics: the US-Japan-Australia Trilateral 1991-2015 THE LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE Quasi-Alliances, Managing the Rise of China, and Domestic Politics: The US-Japan-Australia Trilateral 1991-2015 John Hemmings A thesis submitted to the Department of International Relations of the London School of Economics and Political Science for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. London, January 2017 1 DECLARATION I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without the prior written consent of the author. I warrant that this authorization does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. Signature: Date: Declaration of word length I declare that my thesis consists of 103,456 words. 2 Acknowledgements This thesis would not have been possible without the direct support of my family, my mother and father, and my brother and sister, who all of them supported me and put up with me. I also owe a great debt to my supervisor, Professor Christopher Hughes, who has guided me and advised me, at every step of the way. He has been a true mentor. I also could not have carried out my fieldwork interviews without the crucial help and support of many who helped me along the way, including Ryo Oshiba and Akane Suzuki in Tokyo; the Feakin family and Aurelia George Mulgan in Canberra; Eri Hirano, Carol Anschuetz, and Arthur Lord in Washington DC. I owe many friends and scholars an intellectual debt, including Michael Green, Ralph Cossa, Victor Cha, Jim Schoff, Yuki Tatsumi, Brad Glosserman, Bill Tow, Noriyuki Shikata, Shingo Yamagami, Michito Tsuruoka, Yusuke Ishihara, Tomohiko Satake, Michael Wesley, Daniel Kliman, Nicholas Kitchen, Hilary Parker, Peter Trubowitz, Victoria Tuke, and Jeffrey Taliaferro. Writing this thesis would have been far less enjoyable without the following colleagues and friends at the LSE and King’s College London who have made the project more bearable, including Dan Falkiner, Magdalena Charlotte Delgado, Tim Oliver, Alex Dueben, Inez Weitershausen, Cora Lacatus, Gustav Meibauer, Mark Beautement, Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Alessio Patalano, and Claire Yorke, among others. 3 ABBREVIATIONS ACSA Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement ADB Asian Development Bank AIIB Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ANU Australian National University ANZUS Australian New Zealand US ARF ASEAN Regional Forum ASDF Air Self Defense Force (Japan) ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASPI Australian Strategic Policy Institute ASW Anti-Submarine Warfare AUSMIN Australia-US Ministerial Consultations A2AD Anti-Access, Area Denial C4ISR Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, & Recon. CBA Capacity Building Assistance CCP Chinese Communist Party CCS Chief Cabinet Secretary CIA Central Intelligence Agency CO Cabinet Office / Kantei (Japan) COP Common Operating Picture CSCAP Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific CSIS Center for Strategic and International Studies DASD Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (US) DIA Defense Intelligence Agency (US) DIO Defense Intelligence Organization (Australia) DOC Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea DOD Department of Defense (US / Australia) DOS Department of State DPJ Democratic Party of Japan EAS East Asia Summit EASI East Asia Strategy Initiative EASR East Asia Strategy Report FPA Foreign Policy Analysis FPE Foreign Policy Elites FSO Foreign Service Officer GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 4 GDP Gross Domestic Product GPR Global Posture Review (US) GSDF Ground Self-Defense Forces (Japan) GSOMIA General Security of Military Information Agreement HA/DR Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief HMAS Her Majesties’ Australian Ship IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency INCSEA Incidents at Sea Agreement JCG Japanese Coast Guard JDA Japan Defense Agency (until 2007) JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency JMSU Joint Marine Seismic Undertaking JSD Joint Security Declaration (US-Japan 1995) KORUS Korea-US Free Trade Agreement LDP Liberal Democratic Party MDG Millennium Development Goals MFN Most Favored Nation MHI Mitsubishi Heavy Industries MOFA Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Japan) MOD Ministry of Defense (Japan) MSDF Maritime Self-Defense Forces (Japan) MSI Maritime Security Iniative NAPCI Northeast Asia Peace Cooperative Initiative NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NBR National Bureau of Asian Research NCR Neoclassical Realism NDPG National Defense Program Guidelines (Japan) NDPO National Defense Program Outline (Japan) NGO Non-Governmental Organisation NPT Non-Proliferation Treaty NSC National Security Council. ODA Overseas Development Assistance ONA Office of National Assessments OSD Office of the Secretary of Defense (US) PACOM Pacific Command PKO Peacekeeping Operations 5 PLA People’s Liberation Army PLAAF People’s Liberation Army Air Force PLAN People’s Liberation Army Navy PMO Prime Minister’s Office (Japan/Australia) PRC People’s Republic of China PSI Proliferation Security Initiative QDR Quadrennial Defense Review RAAF Royal Australian Air Force RCEP Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership RIMPAC Rim of the Pacific Exercise (US, allies) RIPS Research Institute for Peace and Security ROC Republic of China (Taiwan) ROK Republic of Korea SACO Special Action Committee on Okinawa SCC (US-Japan) Security Consultative Committee SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization SDCF Security Defense Cooperation Forum SDF Self-Defense Forces SFS San Francisco System SLOC Sea-lanes of Communication SOFA Status of Forces Agreement S&ED Strategic and Economic Dialogue (US-China) TCOG Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Group TMDF Trilateral Missile Defense Forum TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership TSD Trilateral Strategic Dialogue WTO World Trade Organization UN United Nations UNCLOS United National on the Law of the Sea UNSC United Nations Security Council USFJ US Forces Japan USFK US Forces Korea 6 Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION: WHY TRILATERALS? ....................................................................... 12 1.1. The Riddle ................................................................................................................... 13 1.2. The Argument ............................................................................................................. 20 1.3. Literature Review ........................................................................................................ 23 1.4. Selection of Case Study................................................................................................ 31 1.5. The US-Japan-Australia Trilateral ................................................................................. 32 1.6. Research Methodology ................................................................................................ 35 1.7. Contribution to Existing Research ................................................................................ 37 1.8. Why does this research problem matter? ..................................................................... 38 1.9. Structure of the Thesis ................................................................................................ 41 2. CHAPTER 2: MAKING THE CASE ................................................................................ 43 2.1. Theories of International Relations .............................................................................. 43 2.2. The Structure of the International System .................................................................... 44 2.3. Realism and Neorealism .............................................................................................. 45 2.4. Alliances ..................................................................................................................... 46 2.5. Two Types of Security Dilemma ................................................................................... 49 2.6. The Security Dilemma with China ................................................................................ 50 2.7. The Intra-Alliance Security Dilemma ............................................................................ 52 2.8. Neoliberalism and Order-building ................................................................................ 53 2.9. Constructivism and the English School ......................................................................... 55 2.10. Neoclassical Realism as a “Middle Way” ................................................................... 57 2.11. Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 60 3. CHAPTER 3: THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STRUCTURE AND PERCEPTION ................ 61 3.1. The International System ............................................................................................. 62 3.2. Pax Americana ............................................................................................................ 63 3.3. The Asia Pacific ........................................................................................................... 64 3.4. “The San Francisco System” ........................................................................................
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