Moscow Defense Brief Your Professional Guide Inside # 2, 2011 Troubled Waters CONTENTS Defense Industries #2 (24), 2011 Medium-term Prospects for MiG Corporation PUBLISHER After Interim MMRCA Competition Results 2 Centre for Russian Helicopter Industry: Up and Away 4 Analysis of Strategies and Technologies Arms Trade CAST Director & Publisher Exports of Russian Fighter Jets in 1999-2010 8 Ruslan Pukhov Editor-in-Chief Mikhail Barabanov International Relations Advisory Editors Georgian Lesson for Libya 13 Konstantin Makienko Alexey Pokolyavin Researchers Global Security Ruslan Aliev Polina Temerina Missile Defense: Old Problem, No New Solution 15 Dmitry Vasiliev Editorial Office Armed Forces 3 Tverskaya-Yamskaya, 24, office 5, Moscow, Russia 125047 Reform of the Russian Navy in 2008-2011 18 phone: +7 499 251 9069 fax: +7 495 775 0418 http://www.mdb.cast.ru/ Facts & Figures To subscribe, contact Incidents Involving Russian Submarines in 1992-2010 23 phone: +7 499 251 9069 or e-mail: [email protected] 28 Moscow Defense Brief is published by the Centre for Analysis of Strategies Our Authors and Technologies All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or photocopying, recording or otherwise, without reference to Moscow Defense Brief. Please note that, while the Publisher has taken all reasonable care in the compilation of this publication, the Publisher cannot accept responsibility for any errors or omissions in this publication or for any loss arising therefrom. Authors’ opinions do not necessary reflect those of the Publisher or Editor Translated by: Ivan Khokhotva Computer design & pre-press: B2B design bureau Zebra www.zebra-group.ru Cover Photo: K-433 Svyatoy Georgiy Pobedonosets (Project 667BDR) nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine at the Russian Pacific Fleet base in Vilyuchinsk, February 25, 2011. Photo by: Vadim Savitsky © Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, 2011 Printed in Russia # 2, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief 1 Defense Industries Medium-term Prospects for MiG Corporation After Interim MMRCA Competition Results Konstantin Makienko he Russian MiG-35 fighter jet has failed to make it to the cuts to their aircraft carrier programs. The US defense Tshort list of the Indian MMRCA fighter tender, raising secretary, Robert Gates, has said that America has too many questions about the future of its maker, the Russian Aircraft carriers. All the other navies with an aircraft-carrying Corporation MiG. capability currently have only one operational carrier in In the short term, the company’s situation is clear. It has service. an Indian contract for 29 carrier-based MiG-29K fighters, a Due to financial constraints, the UK will probably have Burmese contract for 16 MiG-29B/SE fighters, and a Syrian to limit itself to building only one Queen Elizabeth class contract for 24 MiG-29M2 jets – a total of 69 aircraft for carrier instead of the previously announced two. The French delivery by 2013-2014. Navy also operates only Charles de Gaulle carrier, and has to In the medium term, however, the corporation’s get by without an aircraft carrying capability whenever the fortunes will most likely depend primarily on the carrier- ship is out of service for repairs. based MiG-29K, which RSK MiG is offering to the Russian This trend is probably going to strengthen amid and foreign navies. The future of the MiG-35, the company’s continuing financial problems in the United States and other major project, is now in doubt following India’s Europe. Of all the developed countries, only Japan is likely to decision. It is still not clear whether any MiG-35 jets will make a decision by 2020 on building or buying new aircraft be bought by the Russian MoD under the 2011-2020 State carriers or carrier-capable ships with horizontal take-off Armament Program (GPV-2020) adopted last December. fighters. These plans will depend primarily on the progress It seems more likely that the Russian Air Force will take of China’s aircraft carrier program. its custom to MiG’s main rival, Sukhoi. Plans have been Meanwhile, a number of fast-growing Asian and Latin announced for the procurement of at least 96 Su-35 tactical American nations also want to acquire aircraft carrier fighters, up to 100 Su-34 frontal bombers, 50-70 T-50 fifth- capability. By 2020 India will have at least two carriers – generation fighters and even 30 Su-30MKI jets adapted for the Russian-built Vikramaditya (ex-Admiral Gorshkov) the Russian Air Force. As for the MiG products, the only and an indigenously built IAC (ADS) class ship. Indian official announcement made so far is that the Russian Navy national defense industry projects tend to be excruciatingly wants to place an order for 26 MiG-29K horizontal take-off slow. Nevertheless, it is quite likely that the Indian Navy carrier-based fighters. There is also a good chance that the will eventually have two IAC (ADS) ships rather than one, company will attract more foreign custom for the MiG-29K, bringing the number of its aircraft carriers to three. in addition to the 45 units already ordered by India. In the It is therefore reasonable to expect that in addition to the medium term, therefore, RSK MiG’s fortunes will depend on 45 MiG-29K jets already on order, the Indian Navy will buy a single niche product. Nevertheless, given the company’s another 20-25 at the very least. fairly limited production capacity, even relatively small China ramped up the pace of its aircraft carrier program contracts from the Russian or foreign navies will be enough in 2005. At Dalian the Chinese are converting the Varyag, an to keep it in business over the coming decade. old Soviet-built aircraft-carrying cruiser they have bought incomplete from Ukraine, into a training center for sailors and naval pilots. In Wuhan they have built a full-scale carrier Demand for carrier-based fighters simulator, which will probably be used as a test bed for their in BIC countries future aircraft carrier’s systems. China has already expressed clear interest in Russian-built or jointly developed carrier There have been interesting changes over the past few years based aircraft. By 2020 Beijing is likely to announce (or even in the leading world powers’ plans for their aircraft-carrying bring to completion) a program to build an aircraft-carrying fleets. The traditional leaders in this area have announced ship similar to the Soviet Project 11435 design. 2 # 2, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief Medium-term Prospects for MiG Corporation After Interim MMRCA Competition Results Defense Industries Finally, Brazil is also growing rapidly (though not diesel-electric subs, clearly intending to create a whole new quite as rapidly as China or India), and has obvious naval branch of its Navy – a very ambitious, complex and expensive ambitions. It has already bought several Scorpene-class task. In the past decade the country has made great efforts diesel-electric submarines from France and hopes to start to improve its technological and military capability. In the building its first indigenously developed nuclear sub in 2016. early 2000s the Vietnamese army was buying about U$100m It is very likely that Brazil will also launch an aircraft carrier worth of weaponry from Russia every year. By the middle program in the coming decade. It will use Sao Paulo (ex- of the past decade that figure had increased to U$300m, Foch), an old carrier it has bought from France, to train naval and hit the U$1bn mark in 2010. Most of that money has personnel and pilots. But the country is more likely to opt for been spent on the Navy, which has bought two Gepard 3.9 French or American carrier technology, so the MiG-29K will class light frigates, 12 Project 12418 light guided missile not land any Brazilian contracts. Depending on the outcome corvettes, several Bastion-P coastal defense missile systems of Brazil’s FX-3 tender the choice will be made between the and the already mentioned six Project 636 submarines. If Rafale M, the F-18E/F or even the F-35. this trend continues, it is not unimaginable that by the end of The bottom line is, by 2020 the three BIC countries will this decade Vietnam, as well as Malaysia and Indonesia, will acquire (or be on the verge of acquiring) new or upgraded start seriously thinking about aircraft carriers. At this point aircraft carrying ships. let us recall that back in 1996 Thailand bought the Chakri Naruebet, a small aircraft-carrying warship – although the ship is still not fit for combat duty. If Vietnam and possibly Southeast-Asian reaction Malaysia manage to sustain their current growth rates, both to China’s ascendance countries will be able to afford small Italian- or Spanish- made aircraft-carrying ships, up to 20,000-25,000 tonnes China’s astounding economic, industrial, technological and in size and capable of carrying up to 10 horizontal take-off military ascendance will become the main factor informing fighters. Their choice might well fall on the MiG-29K, which the Southeast-Asian countries’ plans for their defense is affordable and not too complex for the Southeast Asian capability. Indeed, that factor has already begun to take effect. navies to operate and maintain. But if the MiG-29K is to A case in point is Vietnam, whose Navy has always consisted remain competitive, its maker will have to offer extensive of small coastal patrol boats. Now the country is buying upgrade options, including active phased array radars, better frigates and large numbers of submarines. It has already engines and measures to reduce the fighter’s radar, visual and signed a contract with Russia for as many as six Project 636M infrared profile.